The Rolex Bubble Has Burst

[@PacNorthAmy]

Here's my my humble view on the bubble - if I'm buying a watch, the dealer tells me we're still in the bubble (buy high). If I'm selling them a watch, then they say the bubble has definitely burst (sell low). Freakonomics!

[@jacktyler5241]

@r2l100 “take any object in the history of objects” 😂👏 very entertaining sentence.

[@edgarthejeweler]

My favorite strategy!!

[@ohbennyboy]

True.

[@greyhall1]

It's because the ADs have no ethics and they're dealing with people who have more money than brains

[@samhardy6319]

I can't understand the appeal of the Nautilus or Royal Oak. They just look like watches that football managers wear. Tasteless.

[@davidbundesen5867]

I purchased my Rolex date just about 11 years ago. And as you stated, I did it to Mark and occasion. I wear the watch every day and I’m still extremely happy with my purchase. I didn’t buy it as an investment. I bought it because it was important to me and it brings me joy. PS I absolutely adore listening to you. You are a treasure to all of us who enjoy find watches. Keep up the good work.

[@minghanlim2319]

I got myself my first luxury watch in March to celebrate a personal achievement, the Speedmaster. I've always wanted a Speedmaster and a Rolex but only because my dad has one (mid 1970s datejust). To celebrate my dads 70th birthday, I was considering servicing his DateJust but the service cost of the DateJust was about 3/4 of a new Speedmaster. Thus I walked into a Rolex shop, perhaps a new Rolex for my dad .... the way the Rolex AD treats new customers can only be described as arrogant.

[@davidbundesen5867]

@@minghanlim2319 love the speedmaster. It’s a beautiful watch. Enjoy my friend.

[@gmp7458]

David spot on for the majority of people buying a Rolex is a once in a lifetime experience to mark an occasion birthday etc. It's a shame that genuine buyers are priced out of the market or can't get the models they want. But such is life.

[@___Anakin.Skywalker]

Is it beat up now? How about the scratches on it

[@davidbundesen5867]

@@___Anakin.Skywalker absolutely. Like I said. I wear it every day. I have my local Rolex dealer recondition it once a year.

[@mkyhou1160]

It will have burst when I can walk into an AD and buy most steel sports models at retail, that’s the way it used to be.

[@SlightReturn666]

I think things might be pretty normal again already. I am going to get my dad a fairly low-end Rolex (a no-date Sub) for his 80th birthday in spring 2023. I called an authorized dealer in RI yesterday and they said "we don't have one, we only stock the date variety because more popular, but we can get one. it's about a 2-4 month wait but we will sell it for whatever the Rolex list price is the day we receive it, and your dad is welcome to come get the bracelet fitted pretty much any time." Wasn't as though they subjected me to endless questions or asked where I went to college.

[@Armchair-Investor]

Exactly. And if the grey market prices are still higher than retail we are still in a bubble.

[@bullnose01]

The future is in tulip bulbs.

[@sjcarr89]

Great video! I have no sympathy for the flippers/traders/jewellery shops who will lose out on the Pepsi or Daytonas they paid over the odds for and then try to sell at even more outrageous prices! It is GREED getting a dose of 'what goes around comes around' / simple market correction.

[@spyder_man]

Amen, agreed.

[@blivak8230]

When others get fearful, be greedy. When others get greedy, be fearful.

[@WholesaleCellPhones]

When a person cannot stand when other people making money they are in a state of lack consciousness, in a vibration of scarcity, worrying that somehow if someone else makes money there will be less money for them, this is a poverty mindset and doesn't draw abundance or blessings to the person.

[@larsstougaard7097]

Time waits for no man

[@heimdallyong7181]

I don’t like them either, I have two Rolex which I manage to buy a decade ago which I wear them and despite prices are up it was never intention for me to sell. These days it’s so fu%@ to walk into Rolex AD and they tell you no watch to sell and you can always leave your name and q for the next available. Crap! Pure crap. But then again when you walk pass a flipper or a non AD you see all the latest models and with stocks at their place. Why? Rolex failed to protect pure genuine buyers in someways. Let them crash.

[@kimkruse4576]

It was about time. Some pieces were worth X on monday and 12% more on saturday. Incredible unhealthy, so it's just fair for a correction.

[@Slayer8957]

China is going through a housing crisis, and they were one of the biggest sources for Rolex exports. Now people in China are selling their Rolex's which further compounds the prices falling.

[@stapleboss]

I only buy at retail and assume an average 10% loss over the time I own them. Some are worth more and some less over time - but if you like the watch and are ok with the price in the first place, you'll be fine.

[@leejones1782]

This is exactly how you should buy a watch, because you like it regardless of price and who else is making a video on it etc. By what you want keep it and you'll never truly loose money because you have the enjoyment of it.

[@stapleboss]

@Will Harris Same rules - if you like the watch and the price, buy it. If you like the watch but think it is overpriced, don't buy it.

[@stapleboss]

@Will Harris Correct, I personally don't pay over retail - I buy new at AD or 2nd hand. I got my Sub at an AD for retail - I would never buy one on Chrono24 for $18K. I have no idea what an '85 Sub is "worth", but I wouldn't pay it. Worth is subjective - some other guy might like the '85 Sub and the price - if he likes them both he can't go wrong.

[@silveriver9]

💯. I only buy at retail.

[@ukobs]

Same here, I originally bought a few on the grey market some years back, but prices weren’t ridiculous like now. Now I have more patience and just wait for my AD order to appear. For me it’s not the possible price increase but the long term value retention, plus being genuinely my favourite brand.

[@adriantivadar9312]

With the recession ahead I believe that prices will drop even more and will come back up again in maybe 2-3 years once the recession is over. The demand for luxury watches will decline in my opinion and people will have to sell their expensive watches because as you mentioned some of them couldn’t afford them to begin with.

[@rickjason215]

The only good part of this is the Grey Market flexors will probably get hammered. I don’t see this recession lasting less than 2years.

[@GrubblandeGrapplern]

This recession is here to stay a long time.

[@pistonburner6448]

Some people will have to use their Rolexes to build a house. Taiwanese will have to melt them down to make tanks.

[@pistonburner6448]

@@GrubblandeGrapplern Yes, the level will not return to where it was. And unfortunately we might not have seen anywhere near the end of catastrophes and wars...

[@gladlawson61]

why bother. buy a mechanical iPhone instead.

[@chlee4256]

As much as we would like the prices to come back down to MSRP in the open market, what we are seeing here is more of a correction than a burst or crash. Prices still exorbitantly high.

[@franciscotan]

Agree

[@paulsansome1628]

The most frequent definition of a stock market crash isa 20%+ fall. We've seen that - so technically, it is a crash.

[@iamthelaw69]

@@paulsansome1628 No. A crash is a "sudden and abrupt drop" in price. This is a correction at best. Prices aren't even close to MSRP.

[@paulsansome1628]

@@iamthelaw69 Well we’ve seen “a sudden and abrupt fall”. It is just from huge levels. To follow the stock market analogy (which is the point I was making), then an index that goes from 10000 to 8000 is regarded as having crashed (even if it started at 1000). For anyone who bought at peak, they are facing an ugly negative return.

[@TimeSpace1]

Has a lot more to trim imo

[@patrick7228]

Still a member of the never spent over retail on a watch club. Our numbers have dwindled considerably due to the FOMO of the last couple of years, but we are still going strong.

[@alwayspooh1588]

Here here!

[@dsvillalva]

I’m a proud member myself. Have bought only new from AD’s, everything from more humble tool watches, to Rolex and the Holy Trinity plus Lange. I can’t support the grey market personally although I understand their necessity.

[@stevecotterill7981]

Well said… another member here… 👍🇬🇧

[@pizza.doctor]

cheers brother, may we never leave this club

[@BAF605]

I did pay $250 over retail for a datejust in early 2021 but that's my only sin. If we could get back to the days of reasonable premiums for those who don't want to wait, and fair wait lists for those with patience I think most Rolex fans would be happy.

[@lukemccann2024]

The bubble has not burst, you will know when it does because • Watchers will be available to purchase at retailers/A.D’s • Watches will eventually be cheaper than RRP on the second hand market • No waiting lists

[@centu78]

Exactly.. usually i like the content in this channel, but this video it's completely wrong

[@LimitedEditionEDC]

Thats not the burst, that would be the aftermath

[@LimitedEditionEDC]

I also doubt rolex will operate any different ever again even if the burst already happened. Undersaturating the market is the main factor making their businss model even work, despite the fact that it has become part of the brands DNA that you can’t „just buy“ a rolex. Why would they chamge that? If anything, they will hold on to it which means • Watchers will NEVER be available to purchase at retailers/A.D's • Watches will NEVER be cheaper than RRP on the second hand market • No/very few changes on the waiting lists - they are all a bit artificial already anyways A lot of people lack knowledge and common sense when it comes to this topic

[@lukemccann2024]

@@LimitedEditionEDC You can walk in and buy a Rolex it just might not be the one you want..

[@LimitedEditionEDC]

@@lukemccann2024 no shit sherlock! 😂

[@lipinglin1994]

It has not burst. It has simply returned to the original point of last year, where the price is still above the MSRP.

[@xu10j4rs1]

Did you watch the video 🤨

[@hayteren]

Usually people watch the video before commenting

[@12345678abracadabra]

@@hayteren not this guy apparently. It's not done bursting, it'll keep dropping. We're mid burst

[@iamthelaw69]

@@12345678abracadabra lol yall funny. It did not burst. Not. Even. Close. A little drop and people are already calling a bubble bursting, so cute.

[@Sams911]

there was an asset correction in general market wide... Watches for "some" were assets.. not watches.. Those people are getting out and we're returning to pre 2020 reality.. Which is that Rolex is in very high demand, but not being used as a speculative medium.

[@gyang333]

I know this is near impossible to ascertain, but I wonder what the volume of pieces moving at current prices vs a few months prior. If a John Mayer was listing at >$100k but only sold infrequently, and now priced at $80k but more units are moving, I would argue that the prices before were artificially inflated (from already inflated prices) and wasn't reflective of what the market was able to bare at the time.

[@gyang333]

@@Wouldyoulookatthat2 That's assuming a rational marketplace. It's possible that prices were inflated high (at the very top end) and pieces weren't moving, but flippers were okay with it as they moved lower-cost pieces (kind of like how some brands have crazy six-figure halo projects that don't sell but it's fine as it upholds brand prestige/capabilities). But now that the overall market is decreasing (I'm not disputing this fact), flippers are conceding on price and selling the high-priced pieces at a more reflective pricepoint so they aren't stuck with unmovable inventory in the case of a full-out market meltdown.

[@davidkess3750]

so at this market a non hype steel rolex is

[@peteanddrake4242]

I was offered a pretty sum to trade my Rolex to Hodinkee. After I sent it in, they indicated they were now over bought on Rolex as everyone is dumping them--instead of completing the trade, they sent my watch back with apologies. The bubble has certainly burst. Hopefully, we'll be able to buy a new Rolex at an AD in a year or so....

[@gelaende]

Another way of looking at it: instead of 3 x MSRP you now pay 2 to 2.5 x MSRP. That is not a bursted bubble. Somewhat deflated, not bursted.

[@barrylattuca5352]

II think you have described what is going on very well. The question I still have is have we hit rock bottom? Markets don’t usually go straight down. As prices drop inevitably, buyers trickle in and slow down the drop. It’s called testing the lows. That’s where I think we are now. The market is testing the initial low. Will prices stabilize over the long term and begin to raise? Or will the buyers dry up again in the near future and will sellers need to drop prices further to bring buyers back into the market. As you said, no one can predict the future. However, I think it’s wise to be very careful if a person is interested in one of the hyped watches. My two cents.

[@janisstirna4128]

Great video! I think a few more more factors influence this. Some people would consider spending, say, 24K for a GMT, almost vulgar. And there are so many exciting new watches in the more affordable price ranges, for example, under 10K there are new Breitlings… around 4-5K there some news from Doxa, Tudor. Cartier is somewhere there as well with new models. And so people buy those and forget to worry about the traditional Rolexes and Pateks that, frankly, have been on everyone’s mind for too long already. And it’s also not a coincidence that prices drop since February. Many are worried about their finances.

[@donaldmaxbauer1928]

Jenni is simply the finest, most articulate, most informative presenter in the world of watches.

[@wille8010]

@Archie Baldwin Row-lecks! Fyking Row-lecks.

[@erwindewit4073]

It’s interesting. I was looking at a Patek Philipe Calatrava 5227G a couple of years ago. When I could still get it, and get some money off.. How things have changed! For me, watches are one of two options: emotional or useful. Okay, preferably both of course. I fell in love with the Jason Bourne Tag Heuer watch, bought one and loved it ever since. My Omega used to belong to my father who died, same for the old Seiko.. All sort of useful but far more emotional. And I have two Citizen watches. They look nice, are well made, and sync up to the atomic clock and self change their batteries. More a useful item that looks quite nice, less emotional. Investing I don’t really get. The only people who can safely invest are people who already have more than enough money as it is. Still, I do think buying an expensive watch should be because you love it, not because you hope it will go up in value. That, of course, is purely MY opinion.. I’d still really like the Patek though… Even though I also like the Omega/Switch watches… Let’s see when we can order them from their website..

[@jsongraham]

It's possible that the bubble burst for some watches but others are still skyrocketing as other pieces grow in popularity. The overseas is like a 2-4 year wait. And because of that prices continue to rise. The Mojave is double from a year ago and now an application only to get one, very difficult because it's popularity is rising.

[@dallastimebandits]

i remember in the early 80's they had drive thru pawn shops here in dallas for clients too embarrassed to get out of their mercedes to pawn their rolex

[@lugtolug3788]

I purchased the 126000 in 'very good' condition at the back end of July on Chrono24, albeit way above retail. Frustratingly just 4 weeks on and the price on Chrono24 has dropped by around £750-£1k . It's crazy how fluid/volatile the Rolex market can be at times. As always, brilliant video Jenni! All the best, Ben - L2L.

[@simonj5615]

Unfortunately it will only drop further. This watch came at the time things went crazy. The result is that most of them that were bought have never been worn and are still sat waiting to be sold.

[@teenoso4069]

On 17th Jan under That watch guy london video I wrote ''Once defensive stock rotation has completed (and its in its final stages), there will be no place to hide. A multi asset correction is coming and the days of asking about watches for investment will pause.'' Today my view and that of the bond/debt market is we are headed for a liquidity crisis - think 2008 and a deep recession throughout 2023. The stock market has not yet capitulated. When it does - anytime between now and Q1 2023 - look out below. Watches have significantly more to fall - but not below retail. A good video and sensible analysis. Watches like all luxury products are wrapped up in psychological value.

[@MrAleB305]

Good take

[@michalisioannides]

I totally agree that a luxury watch have emotional value, well above its intrinsic value. I purchased my first watch, a Brietling Navitimer in 2004, following a successful business transaction. I wore the watch at my wedding and during the birth of my children and will never sell. This watch and others are simply heirlooms for my kids. Thank you for the video.

[@P0N0]

Congratulations

[@ak81]

I don’t think any watches are moving at the moment. Prices will further deteriorate.

[@patrickjeter7928]

I feel like Rolex was never a speculative bubble. It's a pure supply/demand imbalance thing. You can always buy stock at current retail ask, but can't with Rolex. So the stock chases it's price up with speculation of future price, but there are just more people wanting a rolex than can be bought.

[@David-nx2vm]

If you’re talking at the AD, yes you are correct with the exception of those who manipulate the AD relationship. Looking at the overall market including secondary, there is no shortage. For example, I can’t buy an Air-King at an AD, but Chrono 24 has hundreds for sale from vintage 34mm salmon dials up to new-unworn with full box and papers. The question is what are you willing to pay? For many, it’s not what sellers are asking. Not a complaint, just a statement of fact.

[@robertnaus88]

you are almost correct, it is simple supply&demand except there is no imbalance, its just the way Rolex operates.

[@richardbartlett6932]

@@robertnaus88 how is it Rolex fault 🤔

[@robertnaus88]

@@richardbartlett6932its not, i said its the way Rolex operates/conducts business. And i think its smart.

[@p018112]

Your while argument is based on not being able to buy a specific Rolex. This is simply not true. You can buy almost any Rolex you want. As long as you pay the price the seller is asking. This is exactly the same as stocks, there is a IPO. Then it is up to the markets to set the price.

[@daddy752022]

The bubble hasn't burst until you can buy the watch at MSRP. My first Rolex purchase was discounted by an AD to basically get rid of the sales tax. Second, third, and fourth were all purchased at full MSRP. I was ok with that, but would never pay over retail for anything. Given that Rolex is regarded as being such a stellar company, and their watches are only available from Authorized Dealers, this begs the question of where the breakdown is? It seems the grey market has an easier time getting their hands on a watch than the AD's do. I mean, if the AD's have little to no stock, how do they stay in business with nothing to sell?

[@stupitt6989]

A good honest assessment by someone who doesn’t have any interest or wants to try and influence the market! I feel a second dip is highly likely and we don’t know how far it will drop down too. If you want to buy a watch and don’t want to lose money then I would wait until the middle of 2023 to see what happens but who really knows……

[@wataki_watcheswatakiwatche3160]

If you follow Jenni’s graph a mere rise and another big fall ahead… but that’s also for the sake of completing the graph. However I also think there’s a huge difference in an everyday watch and prices vs. Some of these bigger investment pieces.

[@rajendrabareto8065]

What will happen if the prices keep falling for another 3 years to 80 % lower ? Housing, Crypto ,shares have collapsed. Why not watch prices which rose abnormally.10 years ago the prices were so less that what made them to be priced so high today? Raw materials is same quantity, quality must have a bit better, salaries of employees and workers have not gone up by 100%,infact the companies made more profits by sourcing to cheaper countries in Asia. Then what justifies the prices which has sky rocketted?

[@diego750]

Yes I’ve noticed this - lot of online watch retailers, especially used, are now drowning in Rolex stock that isn’t shifting

[@Juanjo191]

Definitely it has burst. And I don’t think we’re at the bottom yet. But I believe it’s only a correction and eventually prices will go even higher than before. Great video Jenni 😄👍🏼

[@JOHNNYSD-43]

not a correction my friend

[@SolomonLFH]

Thank God. If this is genuinely the beginning of the end of the idiotic price ramps of the last few years, then the genuine watch enthusiasts amongst us, may finally stand a chance to access the watches we admired since day one. Long may the bubble burst last.

[@crisholmurb007]

Great channel - watching regularly - just wanted to say thank you Jenni for putting all this content together with such high professionalism and passion!

[@ianng4633]

So the waitlist will be shorter or even longer then? Because either less people want a watch, which means a shorter waitlist, or people won't pay over retail price for the watch, so more people who previously would pay higher in secondary market will just join the waitlist and make things even slower?

[@gbtriumph3216]

With the overpriced (in terms of intrinsic value) watches, the bottom has no been reached. Rolex went the same way as Harley Davidson. They stopped R&D to improve the actual product, only paid attention to styling and investment to reduce production costs. This has gone on for so long with both HD and Rolex, that people are walking away. They will use "recession", alternative competition, etc...as their reasons. H-D's market share is dwindling as used motorcycles are increasing due to age of the participants and sell-offs of unused equipment (toys). This will ultimately bring H-D down to realistic levels...and face their true competition head-to-head. AFTER this happens, they will begin to improve the actual product. ROLEX is 5 yrs or so behind this failing curve, but it will happen. It is only now just beginning.

[@bdegrds]

No. Some people want Rolex to fall just because their the top of the hill but reality is Rolex has been the most sought after luxury watch brand for better part of a century. Rolex in engrained is human culture as a status symbol of success, they don't need to reinvent the wheel, their sales still surpass every other brand.

[@borassictime918]

@@bdegrds No, Rolexes were tool watches for most of the last 100 years. Rolex only became ‘luxury’ starting in the mid-1980s after the quartz crisis wiped out most of the Swiss industry and Rolex repositioned itself. The Rolex hype train first appeared on the timetable after the 2008 financial crash when interest rates were cut to idiotically artificially all-time low levels, which drove asset bubbles of all sorts that really took off for watches only in the last 5 years. It’s really simple; buy a watch only because you love it enough to want to wear it always and have no *intention* of *ever* selling it. If you see a Rolex as an asset investment you’re just gambling at the unregulated casino and the House always wins in the end.

[@pizza.doctor]

I doubt Rolex market value will go down too much, but I want to add to what you said - true maybe they aren't quick to do much R&D, but that is not a big issue when quality is supposedly very high, but to my surprise they rather lowered QC to try and meet market demand a bit better. New Rolexes I've seen produced over the past few years could actually pass for replicas due to their poor alignment of various parts, misprints and the like. The thing is people keep wanting them, the brand is simply too strong. I have SEVERAL defects on a brand new Rolex bought from the AD (Granted I missed them on the spot when getting it) and I was quite pissed when I discovered them. But I cannot argue with the demand of the market, and I know I can ask for them to be fixed when I take it in for a service sometime during the warranty period. From a technology standpoint, Omega beats them. But they are the strongest and most recognizable watch brand, because it's not actually R&D selling luxury watches, it's something more emotional. They are outdated and inaccurate, so any pissing contest over some miniscule technical detail will not beat good marketing.

[@bdegrds]

@@borassictime918again no. Your Rolex history is off quite abit. Datejust came out in the 1940's, Day-Date in the 1950's those are not tool watches and 2 of the most sought after wrist watch models for the vast majority of their existence. Rolex is still by far #1 king at almost 10 billion in sales per year, that will not change any time soon. People want them to fail because they're ego's are hurt they can't get one. Rolex now is for VIP, Tudor for commoners. buy what you like I'll agree with that.

[@clintnorthwood8058]

I do agree Rolex R&D have now been surpassed by other brands but this been slowly coming for a few years. The bubble bursting has just exacerbated things.

[@newyorkerik]

According to reports, Rolex has increased the prices of its watches by an average of 7% to 8% in 2020. This price hike was reflected across all Rolex models, including the popular Submariner, Daytona, and GMT-Master II. However, it's important to note that Rolex watches are known for their high resale value, and despite the price increase, demand for Rolex watches has remained strong. In fact, some popular Rolex models are currently selling for above their retail price in the secondary market. Overall, while there has been a price increase for Rolex watches in the past 12 months, the brand continues to maintain its reputation for producing high-quality and sought-after timepieces.

[@WestCoastAce27]

What an amazing coincidence! Just this morning I was awakened to scratching on my front door; the salesman at the Rolex AD. He looked sad and hungry and offered me a GMT at MSRP. I gave him a bowl of milk… and told him to come back when I could have 5% off. In all seriousness: the recession in much of the world will definitely have an effect on our hobby. And it’s going to last, possibly for a few years. The pandemic and the failed energy policies of the West will have long lasting effects.

[@TheCeo_]

Lol. Great comment.

[@JulienMR]

Rolex wants us to believe this bubble has burst, but models are still unavailable in stores...

[@pizza.doctor]

It hasn't burst yet, some specific really hot models went a bit down as people focus on other assets (and as they get more and more often stolen) but some models have kept very stable. Explorer2, datejusts and others have stabilized but not dropped. I don't think they will drop as much as normal buyers would hope rather they are already some kind of recession/inflation resistant assets akin to what gold used to be. We will see. I have even seen increases for some more exotic watches I'm keeping an eye on such as some H Mosers. I'm all for a readjustment as wearing the popular models is nowadays an invitation to get attacked in some of Europe's biggest cities

[@eugenepark9665]

It hasn't burst yet because the world's central banks continue to tighten monetary policy, through both interest rate hikes and balance sheet runoff (quantitative tightening). As the money supply is reduced, it necessarily drives down the cost of assets (as well as commodities and goods/services). Because the central banks and governments were so reckless with their money printing in 2020-2021, they created an everything bubble - in stocks, bonds, cryptos, classic cars, houses, NFTs, vintage video games, AND watches too - but now that this money printing has found its way into everyday necessities - like gasoline, electricity, food, clothing, medicine, rent, etc - they are going to be forced to respond (and overshoot) to fix the problem (that they created in the first place). And Los Angeles has actually advised residents/tourists not to wear any watch at all, because there is a growing sophisticated crime network targeting people wearing luxury watches. These criminals will literally kill you for your Hublot, Patek, Richard Mille, etc

[@entertainme7523]

imagine caring about any of this 😆

[@pizza.doctor]

@@eugenepark9665 yeah you are making some good points. Watch crime has been rising steadily alongside watch prices on the secondary market. Definitely the impending recession diminishes interest in luxury goods, and so does not being able to wear them. London is right now the capital of watch crime but I have been hearing reports of many large cities across the world. Money printing in the pandemic made everything worse and we are paying the price, but this everything bubble was not created then, it had been going for a while, but the crash is now finally in sight. It would have come anyway eventually, but now the governments and us have something tangible to blame for it - the economic measures taken to fight the pandemic and the looming war causing uncertainty in Europe. That being said, I remain bullish on luxury watches long term. They might drop in value but short of Rolex and Patek increasing their output, the scarcity will ensure the value will go up in time overall (after we hopefully make it through the recession alive).

[@pizza.doctor]

@@entertainme7523 yeah different people have different interests. 5 years ago I'd have laughed at myself too

[@pizza.doctor]

@Archie Baldwin what's a non-childish hobby in your opinion? And what do you define as watch hobby? I for one want to start repairing vintage watches and learning the engineering, I don't see anything wrong with that. Seems educational and relaxing, and could be considered a watch hobby

[@dsvillalva]

What a great video Jenni. Teddy Baldassarre did something similar a while ago and both of your approaches were similar. Bravo, and so great to see how much your channel has grown.

[@fez877]

Your husband is a great example of why the whole watch market is hype up. He was offered a Royal Oak with discount but didn’t take it up but when the hype train arrive he went back to asked for it.

[@realalexmackenzie]

I think we may be in for more broader economic pain around the world. With that, I think you could see selling pressure from people who are seeking to free up cash from wherever possible. Failing significant economic downturn, I don't think we will see much more in the way of price declines. It is a different market than stocks or crypto. The enjoyment component is much stronger in watches and I don't think that changes with price action. As for me, I am still buying what I like, selling what is no longer getting the wrist time. I just sold a Rolex DSSD, privately, for a tad over retail, so there is still interest out there. I've also sold a few other pieces since the start of summer as well. All of them for prices higher than I was into the watch for. As Jenni says though, if the prices fall down to earth, that just means a chance to buy, buy, buy!

[@borassictime918]

Buy, buy, buy…unless you think used prices will fall even further, and will keep falling, as interest rates keep rising to try to stem inflation, in which case; wait, wait, wait…

[@Snoop_Dugg]

It will all depend on a/ If the Ukraine and Russia have enough grain/food this winter. b/ If Germany and Europe has oil and gas this winter c/ What the Internal Chinese leadership spill will result in, a new leader or continuing with Xi. And will the policies change?

[@1114gabby]

I definitely have seen some decline in secondary market prices. I hope it continues because I believe Rolex was very overvalued. Still, I would like to buy one if the price became realistic. To me paying over retail for used watches doesn't make sense. We will see what the inevitable recession brings.

[@Alexander-dr4mw]

The recession in Europe (that will affect the world) will be brutal. Not sure why the stock market and especially the luxury market is so firm. Germany, most of Europe will have no energy for its industry. Prices have tripped at best. A company paid 120.000€ for gas last year now they are supposed to pay 1.250.000 causing bankruptcy.

[@davidjack3]

Hi Jenni ,Supplies are STILL short,so i cannot see why the prices will drop that much

[@flymorenow]

The recession is just getting started. Everybody buckle up, going to get bumpy. Real-estate bubble just starting to deflate and it's a whole lot bigger than the watch bubble.

[@DaveMGmovies]

Excellent analysis. I don't buy watches for an investment. It's a hobby and it costs money though I do manage to find value away from the hype models. I take the financial hit for the enjoyment and will pass on my collection when I die. I do think prices have further to fall though. The cost of living crisis will see people selling watches to pay the bills (perhaps me included).

[@UFCPR]

Who's the most gorgeous, Britt or Jenni? I vote Jenni! 😍😉

[@ammoalamo6485]

I just bought two watches at an estate sale. One retails for $500, the other for $50. The higher priced one is a field watch with a great reputation. The cheaper one has very good looks and the nice Indiglo feature plus a handsome leather band. I must think the bubble has burst, because I paid $5 total for them, with a nice new bedside fan thrown in. Tik tok.

[@ianjohnhorwood2605]

You paid £5 because they are not worth nothing second hand, 🤣.

[@BobLorrimer]

Another persuasive master class! Much of the Watch market-place appears to be unaffected by the recent chaos. The mayhem has been confined to half a dozen high end 'names'. The average person or collector who is buying outside of the prestige sector is unlikely to see any 'return' on their watch if they should be obliged to sell within a year or two; however these are the people who enjoy the intricacies, beauty and mechanics of the wristwatch....and profit is not their prime motivation . We are living though a difficult and uncertain time....and it is not over.

[@pistonburner6448]

Unfortunately I think the situation is: Those who listen and understand what Jenni is saying already knew this. Those who would have something to learn and would really need to hear what she has to say will have their heads in the sand and will be busy demonstrating human fallacies.

[@suvarbm]

I absolute love watching your videos, your smile and laugh makes me happy.

[@tikishark1]

During the pandemic people had more money to spend which was normally spent on vacations, gas, going out, etc. Now that people are "back to the norm" money is being spent on daily needs (which by the way are getting more expensive by the day). While I love my watch collection and I believe there is an intrinsic value in watches. It's hard to justify buying a 10K or more item that simply tells the time. There are cell phones, computers, and ten-dollar watches that do that. Personally, I've justified to myself that the watch I'm spending a fortune on is a highly mechanical work of art, that it's accurate, and looks nice. However, when you step away from the emotional aspect of what you're buying, watches really don't make a lot of sense.

[@denniskai2331]

Really great video - I love he organization and presentation; follow-up question - at what price can we finally buy Rolexes again at the AD?

[@khronosbest9448]

I wouldn’t say " burst" . I feel better stating that the watch market has recently experienced a deflationary episode from its otherwise absurdly emotionally driven period. Also this deflation is far from over and I dare say considering the near term probability of a global market collapse coupled with a housing market correction… the worst is yet to come IMHO. Thank You Jenni

[@romanmichaelhamilton8729]

Yes, in the States I'm hearing that some people were highly leveraged in their house are now selling many of their personal items (including their beloved Rolex) just to put food on the table. This carnage is just beginning and it will effect every single commodity and market including Rolex. I was thinking months ago that people will be selling everything just to eat, but I didn't know it would come so fast. Then you have folks in the UK and in the EU are headed for price shock with the utility bills. The pawns shops there will have to turn people away.

[@anthonystevens8683]

Very well explained Jenni. Hopefully more watches will be seen worn on the wrist instead of sitting in a dark safe waiting to be sold and placed into another dark safe. People buy watches for different reasons and that's fine but I prefer to wear mine as the value to me is the purchase journey, memories and experiences that we can associate with our little time keeping wrist worn machines. Memories are priceless. I may want a watch that for what ever reason I do not have but I cannot miss what I do not have so I'll carry on enjoying the hobby without prejudice for others that already have what I'd like even if it's in a dark safe.

[@ncasim]

Why can't the manufacturers themselves maintain a digital "waiting list" and remove the ADs from being the gatekeepers. This will make it equally possible for regular and country-club joes to get the watch they want.

[@pranavkarol]

You are not a random girl on the internet Jenni ... Your content is the best! 💓 I love watches my watches whatever the value. I think it's best to go for pure value vs hype. Rolex though super as a brand have hiked retail prices 50% since 2017 prefer Omega and Grand Seiko. Breitling too seems great now

[@maxmeier532]

She said she's married so relax.

[@sukyvirk2289]

Never burst. As long as you can't get hold of a (desired) Rolex at retail, unless you have purchase history with an AD the bubble is strong. Simple supply over demand. Hate how Rolex operate but you have to respect their model and marketing to make themselves so desirable.

[@pablozorro3507]

Brands like Rolex have increased prices and do so regularly, which not only benefits their bottom line but also provides a boost or buffer to the secondary market. Depending how deep the recession is, and how much money is lost on stocks & crypto, there could be another correction of around 20%. But as always, that does not apply equally across the board as some models will always be in high demand and have limited supply. So, perhaps we collectors should look more to other models and brands as that would help getting prices back to reasonable premiums on the secondary market 🤔

[@djones1304]

5% increase this week

[@mrsmith8224]

Have a look at Omega and see how much the retail price increased Another 5% this month

[@MPerry-ox9qb]

When Rolex watches are available at AD’s the bubble will burst.

[@yarly3180]

The amount of advertising I have seen just this weekend at big sporting events like F1 racing and tennis (US Open) suggests they are doing well and there's a still huge potential market for this brand (at least they are aiming at the 'well off crowd' I reckon). I'm jealous I didn't invent this great money making brand. 😉

[@JulienMR]

Regarding the used watches, it's also interesting to see their prices going down, combined with a 5%+ inflation rate in Europe. The value loss is even worse.

[@SPritch724]

I’ve been waiting for these conditions and overall economic bubble to burst somewhat, n order to affect the price of several watches I’ve been eying like a specific Yacht-Master, Submariner, and Seamaster, so I’ll continue to keep my eyes until I believe prices reach better affordability. Thanks for the education, Jenni!! 👍🙌🏼💪🏼🎉🎊 Cheers!

[@pistonburner6448]

Are there any publicly traded pawn shop chains? Their stock might be on the way up...

[@youngalwyn1124]

Jenni is so smiley today! 😃

[@intheknow7776]

Of course she is, mugs like you have just paid her more Euros. She knows nothing about watches. All you old men perving over her is how she earns her living.

[@barrelvisor]

I’m glad that the market is correcting a little - however hot watches are still hot, selling way over their msrp/rrp, and they are unlikely to be as accessible as they used to be pre-bubble. I mean, my chances of getting a Rolex sub at the retail price in the short to medium term are as close to zero as can be, sadly. Thanks for the vid!

[@TerenceHughes4501]

Judging by the prices being asked privately, no sign of that bubble burst as far as I can see

[@Dondaddyh]

Never pay over retail, wait and eventually get the watch you love, I hope the prices keep dropping, I already managed to get a Rolex, that was a declined order for some one else. Yes it was a ladies model for my daughter, but hopefully that’s the future.🤞🏽

[@cliffwheeler7357]

It’s all very well telling me to wait. While I have been waiting (over a year) for a new Explorer, it has just received a £300 price increase! I have three Rolexes in my collection, the longest wait was two weeks for one, the other two were in stock. I’m getting heartily sick of the ridiculous situation that surrounds Rolex at the moment.

[@OPP841]

Don't be naive ordinary never have chance on retail

[@shoaibiqbal9518]

Was waiting for your video missed you when u were in your break . Now again awesome videos!

[@WoodmanNH]

Thank you Jenni another great video. I fell into the Watch world rabbit hole by accident. I have the Blue Pelagos in your video and love it. I’m waiting for a Sub Date from my AD. It will be my last luxury purchase because because my wife will kill me if I buy another. A lot of us older people think differently than younger people about watches. Turning 66 soon and my clock is ticking. I’m not waiting until I’m 80 (providing I even get there) to get my Rolex. I going for it. Wear it, love it like my Pelly and when I’m done with my custody and care pass it on to my Grandson. I’m going to make him sign a prenuptial never to sell them, but pass them on to his Son.

[@j.tt.4877]

That's a great story!! Have fun with your Rolex sir.

[@threethrushes]

Prenuptial.

[@joeljaramillo9667]

Should come as no surprise. Historically in times of crisis the first thing that loses value is anything considered luxury.

[@Megatraum504]

rolex pepsi ugly af im sorry. imagine spending 20k on a pepsi logo

[@peppe82]

Hi Jenni, are you talking about Tesla?

[@Lars_Dalgaard]

I think, that what we have seen up to now is only the "marginal buyers" in the market (GD´s and other speculants) throwing their watches on the market to close their positions and exposed risks. We have a hart recession in front of us reducing the buying power of most populations in the western world. Many will have to take a hard look on how to pay their energy bills and so on, and with future wage increases lagging far behind, my conclusion is very clear. We will see slightly falling prices also over the next couple of years. And by the way. The term "intrinsic value" cannot be used on a investment in watches, as intrinsic value is defined as the value of an investment based on its future cash flows (DCF analysis and so). Watches do NOT have cash flows unless you buy one and lent it out for a certain amount per month :-) Anyway, keep up the good work it is always a pleasure to pick up knowledge and opinions from you.

[@mcsc730]

I picked up a Rolex Date Ref*15000 from a pawnshop for $3000 sold it within weeks for $4000. The vintage pieces don’t look to be affected by the bubble. If anything it’s enticing new/first time buyers.

[@mikael2545]

Finally! Been waiting a long time to be able to buy a Daytona here in Sweden. The first quarter of 2023 will be a good time. The energy crisis will see to that.

[@andrevanrensburg3639]

@Mikael. I hope you're right, But I don't believe for one moment that we will ever buy a Daytona at recommended retail prices! Not in a million years. Sorry!

[@mikael2545]

@@andrevanrensburg3639 I respect your opinon. But i hope you are wrong. ;-) Best Regards / M

[@rishabh83]

Trying to buy a Rolex Dayton 116520 SS on Chrono24 - prices still look high (24-30K). How much should I counter?

[@burakcangur3407]

Well the prices may have dropped slightly they are still ridicioulsy higher than retail which is stupid to say the least.Even at retail rolex watches are overpriced IMO .I mean rolex makes really nice watches but you can buy much nicer things than a plain boring datejust for the same price or less.Only way to get reasonable prices or to even have the watches in AD’s (which is another joke by the brand) is to stop buying them.Which is not gonna happen any time soon cause people are just too stupid and hyped for the brand .

[@Molland-photography]

The intrinsic value of a standard watch is close to the retail value. The only reason current watches are selling above retail is the waiting lists to get one.. i in a year the value of a used moonswatch will be under 250 as for that price you can get a new one. On top. I guess the current waiting lists are full of flippers. As soon as prices really come down they wil not want it and the list will get shorter fast, reducing the value even more

[@jamesjohnson7905]

It was always going to happen when their are so many excellent copies out that are just as good as the original so much so that even professionals have a hard time distinguishing the difference between them and for a fraction of the cost people realise there just paying for the name

[@dk9]

How much should these cost, then?

[@BobutBrody]

I really appreciate this timely, thoughtful video. Appreciate the effort with the research, graphs and useful analogies. As a potential Rolex buyer, I see the true marker (for me) of the Rolex bubble being burst will be the cost of grey market watches approaching some kind of equilibrium with the retail price. I am approaching a life achievement that I thought impossible a few years back, and when I do get there, the compunction to buy a Submariner will be very strong. There will always people like me bringing irrationality into the market. I can afford an $8,500 Submariner, there just aren't any to be had. Will that day come? It is almost like hoping a recession will come and that lots of people suffer hardship. Factors in favour or Rolex demand softening - current crypto crash, Chinese economy cooling significantly, looming recession in Europe Factors against - Euro/Dollar parity will invite more Americans into the market I know a lot of this is obvious. I am not any kind of expert; I rely on passionate, informed KZbinrs like Jenni and others. Thank you again --Sean

[@bdegrds]

You will in all likelihood never get a submariner for 8500, unless you go vintage. The Rolex business model has changed. They only sell to VIP and by appointment. Tudor took the old Rolex model place and those are for regular people.

[@BB-gl7zt]

@@bdegrds Rolex's model hasn't changed, they have limited control over who their dealers sell to. The experience you're describing maybe is just at your local AD. It certainly isn't at mine. I'm no VIP yet I got a sub and OP with zero purchase history from two different ADs

[@BB-gl7zt]

Sean, keep at it, be patient. You will get your sub as long as you're willing to pay the retail. The market is turning and ADs will be calling.

[@BobutBrody]

@@BB-gl7zt BB - I very much appreciate the comment and the insight --Sean

[@seaweed719]

Honestly sub is very pedestrian nowadays… it’s not even considered high horology piece, coming from unique independent brand, or grail watch level.

[@SergiRuiz_RelojeroTorpe]

I think that, depending on the period of inflation, prices may drop but not only in this type of watches but in general. Not the official prices of the brands but those of the used market. Especially in the segment of people who bought watches thinking they were a refuge-value. As soon as they need money, they will go on sale (they already are) enough watches to recover money before they go further down. I already see auctions on eBay with watches in very good condition that close without bidders, even when the starting prices could be considered "good". There may also be a stronger drop in prices for the latter mentioned. In times of uncertainty, the market stagnates and people are usually very cautious when it comes to spending money, so whoever really needs it will have to lower prices quite a bit to get it.

[@harrynamkoong3361]

There is no such thing as "intrinsic value". Whatever it is - be it rolex, $TSLA, 1 oz of gold - it's only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it.

[@pistonburner6448]

Yes there is, at least when comparing to speculative value. For example real estate or basic utilities/necessary daily product production companies vs. crypto or the Tesla scam of money-making self-driving robo-taxis: with real estate you will still get monthly income from your tenants. With production of necessary daily products you will still sell your stuff. Sure, your costs may rise and people may buy slightly less stuff, but that is not a complete crash and with necessary products the inability for people to avoid spending on them and also in apartments contractual stuff makes you maintain a pretty much guaranteed intrinsic value. With crypto it's purely speculative: no-one has to pay you anything. With Tesla it's also purely speculative: when you run out of gullible people to believe in the scam and the rug is pulled from under the con: you have no actual money-making self-driving robo-taxis, they simply do not exist, so no-one is going to pay the company for that dream anymore, and you the stock holder will not be paid for that stock.

[@harrynamkoong3361]

​@@pistonburner6448 What you think is "intrinsic" value are so only b/c the particular circumstance(s) at the moment. There is nothing enduring about a particular real estate for example. Currently Manhattan real estate is very valuable b/c NYC is hub of finance etc. 500 years ago it was worth nothing. If global warming were to raise sea levels high enough, Manhattan underwater real estate will be worth back to nothing.

[@pistonburner6448]

@@harrynamkoong3361 There very much is something incredibly enduring about real estate. The fact that you have to dream up an apocalyptic flood just underlines my point. Hell, even then real estate will be the most value-stable thing in New York... And if global warming would destroy millions of apartments the overall real estate prices will just go up! I would like to see you prove that real estate doesn't keep giving steady returns. You didn't mention the value of crypto, Tesla stock or watches compared to real estate by the way...too hot of a potato? You're welcome to invest in watches, crypto and scams like Tesla during recession if that's what you want to do. I will not because I think other types of investment are infinitely better. In fact it would be greatly entertaining and probably educational for many people if you would give us reports on how you invest and how they perform in the upcoming months and years.

[@harrynamkoong3361]

@@pistonburner6448 I just gave you perfectly non apocalyptic scenario where Manhattan real estate was worthless 500 years ago. If it was "intrinsic", it wouldn't have been worthless, would it?

[@pistonburner6448]

@@harrynamkoong3361 That's not how it works. There will not be less people in the USA 500 years from now or 100 years from now. All predictions point to there being significantly more people 100 years from now. That means more demand for apartments. And the ability as well as cost to build more to cover the ride in demand is seriously in question for the foreseeable future, which further helps existing real estate.

[@andrewgiblin3468]

I was in an AD the other day and they most certainly wanted my details for an Explorer (the only modern Rolex I really want), now he did say it will be some time (6-12 months was my feeling). Now that’s a bit better than not that long ago!!

[@sturmgold]

So glad that you are back from your well deserved break :) I missed your videos!

[@solefreak2]

I'd only consider a bubble bursting when I'm able to walk in any AD and buy the watch I want at retail!

[@Walter_Sobchak_43]

I don't believe in investing in any physical items. They are too susceptible to the whims of popularity and people's interests. Even pure precious metals rise and fall and can take decades to recover losses.

[@alwayspooh1588]

Crazy prices for a Rolex. Why is it better than an Omega, or a Tudor, or a Breitling??? It is all hype. Sure, build quality is good, good movement. However, £100,000 for a Daytona??? Paying that for a watch that does the same thing as another is bonkers!

[@matteobertoli]

People keep forgetting that Rolex is not only a ceramic daytona. Vintage and 5 digits didn’t move at all. The ones that went down were the super overhyped models. Nothing else.

[@GM-ur9km]

Romance was the only word missing in this video imo, I have to love something enough to pay over the odds on anything atm especially. Greats videos, keep up the great work!

[@mn1801]

The bubble bursts when the price of the second hand Rolex is at or below the msrp. None of that happened. So is it a burst or simply price correction? To me it is not a burst.

[@VoodooMike]

Looking at your bubble graph, it peaks, then drops a bit before a second minihpeak, then crashes. What we don't know is whether prices flattening off means we're in the trough between peaks, or the bottom of the crash. Buyers want it to be the first one. Sellers want it to be the second!

[@vadimdon]

Steel daytonas are still £28-30k so the bubble hasn't quite burst yet

[@albylive4473]

No burst bubble on the submariner. Prices still very strong. Good insight regarding hi priced pieces 👍🏻

[@timemachineeddie1146]

Thank God. I was praying it wasn't the beloved Invicta Bubble. Thanks for sharing.

[@hermles]

Very well explained. I love your channel, and you have a piano in the background!!!!

[@everist22]

Thanks Jenni. I believe there is a 3rd motivation to watch purchasing - ego/showing off/displaying wealth & success - and in a recessionary market (China) deployable income, towards watches, will diminish. Demand will reduce, supply won’t be so squeezed and prices will reduce 🙏

[@ads-porewealth96]

So, being new to this space, do we think pre owned Rolex will get back down to near retail? Or is that just not a thing? Bloody hope it does

[@vp5198]

Your work is astonishing and passionate. Thank you for such videos!

[@blakslee720]

Idk, a couple years ago, it was easy to find Rolex Subs on CrownandCaliber for under $10k USD. Now, something w/o box & papers is like $11k. Also, until the 126710 can be bought on the "used" market for MSRP, then there's still a problem. This is not a limited production item.

[@SuperSerNiko97]

That was not a bubble at all! In a bubble the prices drop below the original value, while here there has just been a decrease of the reselling price which is still much higher than the retail price… Also you are comparing stocks with physical goods that are normal to decrease in value with age… you can’t say for example there is a milk bubble just because the milk you bought last month at the supermarket expired and now costs $0