The Collapse Of The Watch Market - What Caused Secondary Market Prices To Fall?

[@Unhomiee]

Oh no, scalpers and flippers are making less money. My heart goes out to them!

[@dd-dd2co]

I love it then they hurt. LOL

[@dontex7]

My heart felt tears 😭 😢😆☺️

[@awc723]

thoughts and prayers

[@SFVYachtClub]

I laughed when Swatch managed to repackage their old Scubas into what was clearly scalper bait, and they so fell for it.

[@adamr9570]

True, those sketchy people I hate.

[@d3im0s1]

Collapse? I would say a return to normality would be a better term. And what's more, as long as a mass product like a Rolex costs one cent more on the secondary market than its retail price, there can hardly be any talk of a collapse. I would never think of paying one cent more than the retail price for a watch unless it was an absolutely limited model or a one of kind piece.

[@brianhutton2370]

or out of production 100% agree with you.

[@michaelh.1627]

Totally agreed

[@davieferguson202]

Then you will never own a Rolex. Simples

[@ryanfiser1571]

@@davieferguson202aww. What a loss.

[@Cassius365]

Or something that’s been out of production for a while

[@Benis650]

When you walk into a store and can't buy a single watch, when the final price has to be higher than the official retail price, and when you have to play the dealers' 'games' to get the product you like, this industry is nothing but a joke.

[@AllTheHandlesTaken]

Interestingly, some of the companies are cracking down on the whole games thing. It was apparently never allowed and something that ADs did on their own. The instruction at the brand owned botiques I have been to is first come, first served.

[@goldgeologist5320]

Kind of what cars were like in the Covid period.

[@Nefville]

Well said. If these brands are cracking down on ADs behavior, which I doubt, I suspect its _because_ the market is way down and they're trying to win all of the people they screwed over back. Its absurd, there's no way the brands that dictate everything about how their watches are sold, including where and how they are displayed in the ADs, didn't know what was going on. Of course they knew and they did not care. Getting slapped in the face with the left hand and then offered the right to shake on a deal does not make a luxury buying experience - its an insult.

[@zz424]

A fool and his money are soon parted

[@Mr_Paw_revised]

With the quartz revolution and economic changes of 80’s and 90’s mechanical watches had to find a different place. They found it as a collector pieces, high luxury goods and status symbols. Watch industry still remembers the crisis and the watchmakers are trying to keep the companies afloat. Smartwatches were only a stage of this process. So when smart businessmen from the industry saw an opportunity, they didn’t hesitate. If your watches are becoming news pieces, objects of high profile auctions and a theme of rap hits, you care for wealthy clients only. That’s why I would be able to save for a Submariner in 2007, but I’m unable to afford it in 2024, while earning twice as much I did 15 years ago. If your watches are being showed off on hip-hop stars’ and KZbinr’s wrists, you don’t care, that a wife of small-town business owner can’t get a nice watch for her husband for a wedding anniversary gift. It is obvious watchmakers knew about ADs practices, they just didn’t care. The product was flying off the shelves. Clients were ecstatic, that they could secure a watch from a famous brand and were showing it off on Tik-Tok and Instagram. But the industry is constantly changing. Many microbrands appeared on the market , that saw the opportunity to get a piece of the pie. Young generation doesn’t care about mechanical watches. The bubble of secondary market bursted and economy is in a bad shape. There are multiple factors, that are disadvantageous for the industry. That’s why suddenly watchmakers started to care for every client. That’s why Rolex bought Bucherer. I think their analysts see, that the industry can slowly slide into a decline. If your famous brand is not seen as „cool” anymore, younger people will not buy your products. Microbrands tailored their offerings to include original, interesting designs in affordable prices. That’s why Tag-Heuer and Tissot have smartwatches in their portfolio. That’s why we got Swatch/Omega Speedy. Chinese watchmakers are starting to offer really good models. So more competition on the market. The secondary market boom and decline was an incident. It was magnified in scale by the pandemic. Now, when the situation is returning to normal, we’ll see more and more struggle on the market. If industry giants won’t find a way, to get their products vastly available in affordable prices, market for mechanical watches will slowly collapse. It already started.

[@MaxWell-pp9zs]

A lot of the bucket list stuff I looked forward to, have to take the backseat. In times like this, it's more about ensuring my savings last.

[@MarjorieRyanJoy]

I’m nearing retirement myself, and I had similar concerns. I started investing later than most, and just relying on ETF compounding wasn’t cutting it for me. After working with a financial advisor, I managed to restructure my investments and am now on track to retire with around $5 million. If I hadn’t sought advice, I doubt I’d be as confident in my plan right now

[@MaxWell-pp9zs]

I’m in a similar boat, trying to figure out the best approach for my portfolio. How did you find your advisor? I feel like I need that kind of guidance too

[@MarjorieRyanJoy]

Honestly, finding the right advisor is very personal. What worked for me might not work for someone else, but I will say that Emily Ava Milligan’s approach was a game changer for me. She took the time to really understand my goals and needs. It might be worth checking her out to see if her style fits what you're looking for

[@MaxWell-pp9zs]

Thanks for that. I did a quick search and found her page. I was able to email so I sent over a few questions to get more info. Appreciate you sharing

[@SUMDUMMEH]

@@MaxWell-pp9zs LMAO this is such a natural conversation. thats crazy that you both created your youtube accounts on the same day! Tell me how to invest my money!!!

[@Gabriel-ne4et]

This video was way more detailed and technical than I expected. Great work!

[@michaelh.1627]

The psychology of the secondary watch market boom was the most fascinating aspect of it all. It’s truly a tulip bulb phenomenon that I hope will never be repeated.

[@MichaelWillems]

Exactly. Tulip bulbs. A dumb bubble.

[@mrbrisvegas2]

The luxury watch market will be killed by superfakes. It has got to the stage where some watches are being sent to the factory for authentication because even experienced dealers can't be sure.

[@truantray]

All of this was driven by COVID lockdown where people could not spend money, but instead of saving, they found more ways to waste money.

[@truantray]

​@@mrbrisvegas2fakes are easy to spot, they keep time better than originals or are finished better.

[@sherparoyale]

@@truantray lol!

[@ahha6304]

Nah if secondary markets are more expensive than brand new then we need a hell of a discussion haha

[@bdegrds]

That's the luxury segment kiddo, exclusivity

[@davidma1304]

@@bdegrdsmost luxury watch, including holy trinity, sell for a discount on grey market. Only a handful of hype models sell above. So, less about luxury and more about hype.

[@geoffwatches]

Yeah he said most rolexes are trading at mrsp. Not true.

[@lukerabin5079]

Exactly right. This crazy situation is a hangover from Covid19 lockdowns when there was too much time on crazy people’s hands.

[@estfatul744]

@@bdegrds scalpers not collectors

[@coreygraham6628]

This is a “collapse” for those that made the mistake of thinking watches were an investment, and continued to think that once equilibrium began to establish itself. Good thing for us collectors that consider a quality timepiece as a vessel for memories or works of art. We done video, Teddy.

[@Mountainshark]

Just use a Casio watch. $20.

[@robertjamesonmusic]

Anyone who pays thousands for a watch is an idiot

[@zuesblue1422]

Well said @coreygraham6628. I have several - some bought and others earned - yet I’ve worn only my apple watch for years but can’t bear the thought of parting with my timepiece “vessels for memories”

[@JohnSmith-op7ls]

A quality timepiece is one that does the best job for the lowest price. Anything more is just a sad attempt to show off. And the whole work of art angle is just part of the marketing grift. Art is fine but the moment it’s done as part of a corporate marketing plan, it’s just a part of a sales pitch to get fools to more easily rationalize parting with their money.

[@PazLeBon]

@@JohnSmith-op7ls cynic

[@danrhodes]

My friend, this was the best video on watches ever created the clarity was UNREAL.

[@therealhammer6068]

Teddy...I recently went to your web site, arranged a buy session via chat to select a watch, told your rep my initial budget was $3k...the guy promptly said..lemme get back to you, as if $3k was a waste of his time. Never heard from anyone. Walked into a local watch/ jewelry store...treated like a king, left with a beautiful watch...that was "me." Lesson learned...buy local, people!

[@liseagnant4161]

That was unfortunate. I have had quite the opposite experience . Teddy was my introduction to watches, so I went straight to his website for my first purchase. I did not bother chatting with someone and bought a Tissot that was way too big for my small wrist ( around $700). I reached back for a return and started chatting with AJ. He helped me with my return and my next purchase. I had such a great experience that I cannot shut up about it and have been sending my friends there. I was treated like a queen when I bought my first watch, came back for a Meistersinger, for my son’s first watch (a citizen under $500) or my Breitling superocean ( around 5k). I have his phone number and he helps me even when I am purchasing watches that TB does not carry like Cartier!. I am sorry this happened to you, they have a good team. Big shout out to AJ Cabot from Texas.

[@kaalalong8967]

This is like standing in line at a casino, where the bouncer at door decide if you are good enough to spend/ waste your money in their casino. What a joke. No thanks.

[@JohnBowl14690]

You might want to think about buying now. These bargain basement prices may not last.

[@carpediem4512]

😂😂😂 Good analogy.

[@Niaaal]

​​@@JohnBowl14690Lol, interesting coping mechanism... every stock trading forum has this exact sentence written by delusional traders holding onto their declining stocks...

[@Irfan-z9o]

@kaalalong8967 - 100%. The last few years, I saved some money, put in extra time at work here and there, am pretty conservative when it comes to spending but I have always wanted a Rolex. Fast forward to last fall, finally saved up and went to a Rolex store. Noticed security, of course as expected but the dirty looks given were off. Regardless that is on the security guard. Nevertheless, talking to the salesperson, was just a bad vibe. Was like pulling teeth trying to get info and they just seemed uninterested. I asked about some models and availability they just said nope not available. I am not a watch collector by any means, and I just wear a normal Seiko maybe that is what put them off, but regardless was a dismal experience.

[@kaalalong8967]

@@Irfan-z9o sounds very familiar experience for most people.

[@RockHudrock]

❤waited for this to happen! Tulip bulbs. It’s all tulip bulbs.

[@krisyannuruha5147]

I prefer call it monkey business lol

[@grammarboy1318]

You and many others. Are you buying now?

[@user-st9wh4ed5l]

Overused analogy and totally does not apply to this subject.

[@PhilbyFavourites]

@@user-st9wh4ed5lwhy????

[@UrSSuL]

Many idiots will buy now being afraid and believing the AD saying `it' s the best price right now, you won' t get better, the prices will start going up` . F.E. : Someone tries to sell a Tudor with ETA from 2002 for 14k. a few years ago it was 3k. According to Chrono History someone bought something north of 13k, at some point. Too many John and Jane Does became `investors` and bought anything and everything- hope they end up holding the empty bag, like in Crypto.

[@kaunas888]

During the "glory" days of the bubble when prestigious (Patek, AP) brands only saw their prices and demand rise and rise, the rest of the industry came to the conclusion that the way to become the new Patek was to aggressively increase prices. Now the bubble has burst, the world economy is soft, and in many ways Swiss brands have simply priced themselves out of the market. The value is gone, and they forgot the rule that as prices rise, fewer and fewer people can afford high end offerings. Now these watches are too expensive for the crowded market...but pride and prestige prevents them form lowering costs down to levels where enough people can afford them. This is why the Swiss watch market is not in good shape now.

[@UtubeEric12345]

I agree with what you wrote, but I’d like to add one thing. A ”brand” will also (probably, I am of course not a mindreader) be reluctant to lower their prices in order to not “sabotage” the customers that just has bought the product at retailer. Basically they want to “protect” their recent customers investment by not lowering the retail price. This is especially difficult for products with a high quality and long life. Patek can’t for example do like Sony did with the PS3 and repackage their watches in a “lite” version that sells at a lower price.

[@jamespohl-md2eq]

⁠@@UtubeEric12345You are correct. It’s the issue faced by Mercedes and other luxury car makers. You don’t want a product that detracts from your overall brand. A perfect example of this would be Tesla. It’s a luxury company, but not real luxury, and when they lowered prices, it made their customers who had purchased before the cut feel duped. And those that liked the luxury pricing that gave some exclusivity to their purchase weren’t thrilled that they had a vehicle for the masses.

[@UtubeEric12345]

@@jamespohl-md2eq Very good example with Tesla, kicking myself for not thinking of it myself 👍👍

[@jamesgoens3531]

@@UtubeEric12345Very true. What the luxury brands like MB, Lexus etc do offer are “special financing for well qualified buyers” or “exclusive ultra-low mileage leases for well qualified buyers”. Every year I almost buy a Lexus at Christmas. Not! 😂

[@sarikagoode1505]

@@UtubeEric12345Actually the Big 3 of Switzerland (R/P/AP) are doing fine. It’s the less popular brands that are struggling and the Swiss government is having to throw in some taxpayer provided assistance.

[@benguevara5532]

Just wanted to say your explanation for why mechanical watches are relevant in our contemporary society (around 1:40) was eloquent. Well said.

[@eduardorafael89]

As usual, flippers destroy everything.

[@scsmith4604]

And it makes not difference what is being flipped

[@Stona999]

It's the AD that caused this problem. Flippers are just a drop in the bucket. Rolex dealers continue to sell their Daytona inventory directly to grey market dealers and Rolex does nothing about this. There is no incentive for a Rolex AD to sell you a Daytona for $15k when the grey market will pay them $20k plus. Until Rolex takes steps to prevent this, it will continue indefinitely.

[@colossusX1]

@@Stona999 probably why Rolex bought Bucherer last year. Vertical manufacturing and more control of the distribution.

[@karrde666666]

yet they didn't destroy it previously, cope harder

[@colossusX1]

@@karrde666666 I am not coping. An acquisition like that takes years too plan. Personally, I dislike Rolex’s decisions but it works for them. I still want one eventually.

[@maxcontax]

It was a blip driven by an extraordinary event and now it’s over. Luxury watches are still in demand but the price is back to where it belongs.

[@m.newman7722]

As a professional, my salary went up less than a third as fast as the inflation of watch prices. Thus I would disagree in part with the statement that prices are back to where they belong. Many nice watches are priced well above what I would expect to pay, given their prior selling price. JL anyone.

[@maxcontax]

@@m.newman7722 made my remark based on the graph presented. Heartily agree with you that many of these are overpriced, still, but bling is hard to judge”fair market value” on. My own collection is modest, Seiko, Tissot, Hamiltons. I see them as priced right.

[@tomdonaghy8625]

@@m.newman7722 Marketing theory suggests that pricing the luxury good market is "what the market will bear", whit a total disconnect to what we would assume is "value". no way to fix that. My collection is modest watches that have good actions and clean dial faces, I prefer Tissot, Seiko, and Hamiltons. They seem to be Ok for prices and still look pretty good. No Rolex level watches in my collection, can't see the value.

[@FrutenFraten007]

@@m.newman7722exactly. I have collected tons of omegas and stopped few years ago. Back then when i was collecting POs and SMs you got them between 2-5K. Now they are priced at 10ish. This is insane and i am not willing to pay that. I bought my Rolex EXII 2015 from a watch collector for 5K. That is the price the watch is worth to me. In case i buy the WD (i have the BD) not gonna pay penny over 6K. The moment all these speculators and flippers are out of the market thats the time you buy. Back then (2000-2015/17) you had nearly no flippers but only watch enthusiasts you dealt with. The moment colleagues started to buy watches just to make few bucks i knew its time to leave the market (i mean not buying anymore) and will stay away till those people make their losses and leave the watch market.

[@WordMadeFlesh777]

@@m.newman7722yup. Prices went up waaaay to fast

[@rickjason215]

I never paid a penny over retail and never will. I spent way too much retail for watches I never wear.

[@sirashley2355]

this right here. just like the expensive hypebeast shoe market, i will not participate but it is nice to watch the cycle.

[@ashdivakaran9664]

But Retail is much more expensive than what it was 5 years ago.

[@DrTune]

I use my phone to tell the time and IDGAF whether people think I'm a "baller" or not

[@fredbobberts5753]

God isn’t that true 😢

[@rickjason215]

@@ashdivakaran9664 You are right. That’s why I don’t buy any expensive watches anymore. I have a bunch of watches I don’t wear. I look at them a few times a year and then lock them up.

[@FiMvisibl3]

Amazing video! Both the analysis and the production were top-notch and compelling. Definitely hope to see more of these kind of videos. Thanks Teddy!

[@valebliz]

A bubble bursting isn’t a collapse.

[@dannysimenauer5745]

@@valebliz ???

[@CeeDubyaa]

Yeah, I’m not seeing a collapse. The ref SD43 Anniversary that I have been eyeing for the last few years is about $2000 more on average than it was when I first started looking. Not sure where the collapse is.

[@bgloumpu]

@@CeeDubyaa It is not a collapse, since the secondary market average pricing is largely over the retail price.

[@georgeholt325]

In the stock market, they call this a "correction".

[@bgloumpu]

@@georgeholt325 yup!

[@obesetuna3164]

If one has the means, at least they will be welcomed by Omega with open arms. But as a mere peasant of this world, the idea of brown nosing a Rolex dealer for the chance to buy their product with my own cash has always seemed alien to me. I can't imagine that even the likes of Rolls Royce would dare to treat their customer base with that kind of arrogance and contempt.

[@bongkem2723]

same, i bought a second hand gold omega and the gold price alone (in weight) today is more than what i paid for the watch. Cant understand why some dudes pay more than $10k for a machine-made steel watch from Rolex-an entry luxury brand (compared to Patek, AP, VC, Lange, H. Moser, Breguet....) :))))

[@Souljaxl]

that is what you are paying for though. You are paying to show people that you are the type of guy that has money and connections. You are not paying for a watch, you are paying for the branding of that watch.

[@obesetuna3164]

@@Souljaxl Sure. But then many of us actually have the cash for what is, in reality, a mediocre brand. I simply can't imagine walking into Aston Martin, Bentley, Rolls Royce, or even some of the more expensive Swiss watch dealerships, and getting treated like shit.

[@903lew]

Thing is you never buy from Rolex, you buy from the AD. An AD that only gets so much stock through the doors. Rolex doesn’t do business with you.

[@TheJukkis]

Wearing Rolex is just shouting to everyone that youre crass new money with limited knowledge and have a bad taste

[@vedranbozicevic1111]

Things are returning to normal...that is going on...and that is good.

[@adswu2008]

An incredibly articulate and really well presented video ..I enjoyed the entire video ..Thanks for the time taken to do it .

[@kaunas888]

Walking into a Rolex store and looking at the sparse selection on offer reminds me of GUM department store during the Soviet Union. We live in a crazy economy.

[@tommymaddox6785]

Been to stores in a few countries and many states, maybe 4 actually for sale anywhere and 3 were women's

[@arcadiushakim3675]

The GUM department store in Moscow thats a real throwback reference. Great place to visit for people who go there.

[@VegaVeniVidiVici]

I don’t understand the prices at AD’s for Rolex certified pre owned. Has anyone seen how much more these used watches are compared to grey market dealers and are selling for way over retail new at the AD. How can they still be asking for so much more money for used? Given our back to normalcy sentiment these watches need to be priced below new at AD’s. When?

[@dannysimenauer5745]

@@VegaVeniVidiVici They are using the fear of being fleeced by buying a fake Rolex or Frankenstein watch. The prices are so high because the watch is first serviced by the AD or regional service center, then it is serviced again by Rolex in Geneva. This means costs on the watch are high before it becomes a CPO watch. You are correct that the prices are greater than the gray market by 15-40%, depending on what AD you visit. If you are rich and want to be assured by Rolex that your Rolex is real then buy CPO. However, there are trusted gray market guys so if enough of us wait, CPO prices will go down.

[@thomashelm6931]

Right?? I thought there would be some relief from the gouging in the gray market. Wrong! It just perpetuated the problem and created another pay to play scenario

[@Arseization]

The CPO model gets even funnier when you think about the fact that Rolex forces the AD (or Bucherer in that case) to pay beforehand for a Service of the watch for it to get certified. So the AD buys the watch from a Client, has to send it in to Rolex for a Service and certification to recieve it back after (hopefully) a few weeks to then finally sell it - but for this amount of time the money is basically lost. Rolex never loses but the AD has to pay in advance and hope the market stays up.

[@MrMustangrick]

Yeah that really turned me off to Rolex. Very sus.

[@averagemillennialinvestor]

Very interesting from someone who doesn't follow the Watch market. Like a documentary. Thanks!

[@ShamileII]

Great video and analysis.

[@TheGrenadier97]

Since 2021 i hear about "collapses" and "bubbles busting". I'm yet to see all of that happen. Makes me think that all big brands, dealers and others are connected in an artificial pricing arrangement.

[@maxkaltenhauser9282]

They clearly want you to think that the bottom is in, the reality is recession hasn’t fully hit yet and if that is really what’s ahead watches will go down much more in price.

[@huna1950]

Also many folks are now getting 6% in the bank for first time in decades…forget the risks and stay steady will be a big part of the psychology now…which is partly why rates have went high to take sting out of bubbles

[@huna1950]

@@maxkaltenhauser9282 depends tho…with an economic downturn most watch companies will mitigate things and scale back production with will balance with the demand side…. If operating costs go the same way as recent times like wages and materials to make the items then your assumption is just that- then of course if the prices go down then you get new people into the market that said prices were too high and in a bubble etc then.

[@jethrojacinto2798]

I wouldn't say collapse but just a massive correction. It's not like a Panda Daytona is going for near retail in the secondary market.

[@raymondwan-k4w]

sold panda D 4less than 40%

[@rashakor]

Most are fake anyways. I wouldn’t even look at one until they are well under 10k used. That would be a correction! A collapse is when you can’t give them away.

[@RootBeerGMT]

A white face Daytona is a real snoozer in person

[@bryguy102]

Whoa, infographics! Nice editing Teddy and team!

[@charlesblithfield6182]

Excellent summary of the economics. Great presentation as well.

[@dannysimenauer5745]

Well thought out points and well said. I want to add two more points to everything Teddy stated. Watch collectors are not stupid and are well educated when it comes to the watch market. This means we know REAL value and are not going to overspend on any watch. There are probably only 10 models that are truly worth paying over list. The other major factor driving down prices is “unavailability”. Collectors are done with hearing a brand is fully sold out because of supply & demand. Instead the educated collector finds a competitive brand that is equally good or better to wear on our wrist. The brands can either glorify in their unavailability, or increase their production to earn our business!

[@aristoteliscatsaros552]

Best explanation ever! Thanks!

[@matthewhardy5610]

A novel concept, the market regains its sanity. From my Vacheron Constantin to my Timex, I enjoy them all and were purchased simply for that reason - the joy they bring.

[@raymondwan-k4w]

haha joy accompanied by crying buckets....VC is junk

[@whereRbearsTeeth]

@@raymondwan-k4wyou sound jealous

[@raymondwan-k4w]

@@whereRbearsTeeth I m smart...never lose money ..bought gold president rolex n sold 4 huge profit when mkt peaked,..now have 40 copy watches...4 the fun of it...

[@whereRbearsTeeth]

@@raymondwan-k4w yep, like I said, jealous. Anyone that tells someone that their VC is junk is definitely riddled with envy. Pretty pathetic

[@lettuce1305]

​@@raymondwan-k4wlol you bought 40 copy watches??? You bought 40 junk crap lol

[@ever989]

Love Teddys ability to break watch market trends down and come up with relatable advice.

[@decoculaeselmariachi]

Great video! Congrats!

[@Omega30t2RG]

Watches weren't always treated like the stockmarket. Just look at the original price of the paul Newman Rolex.

[@lettuce1305]

This is what many new in the hobby just don't get. Many Rolex selling above retail is a recent phenomenon it hasn't always been like this years ago. Like u said even the old Daytona was a dud in the 70s and 80s, no one bought em. 10 years ago the Submariner Hulk was sitting on AD shelves with ADs offering even a 10-15% discount to get you to buy a Hulk

[@Grandstreet1]

A growing rash of brazen luxury watch thefts has made owners a target and many don't want to risk their personal safety for status

[@Jazzmaster71]

My Casio GScock will outlast my life expectancy and beyond. What more can I demand for a time piece.

[@dr.emilschaffhausen4683]

Guilloche.

[@AKK5I]

No matte thow much of a snob you are, real watch enthusiasts have a casio in their collection.

[@crimestoppers1877]

@@dr.emilschaffhausen4683 Timex? Bolex?

[@StoicJason]

A sense of style.

[@charterph5446]

I have gshock brought Oct2016 my only watch using it until now 😂

[@LietoUthe]

Outstanding video.I have to go with the MAMACOO, especially with that green dial as my favorite

[@NikoAnagnostou-v7k]

Great video! Thank Teddy keep it up

[@juancolina7654]

Buble burst, you can’t sustain a 2,000% mark up….

[@ajhl1]

Influencers created the hype..

[@23Piccolina]

and stupid suckers bought into the bullsh*t

[@stuntmonkey00]

Bark & Jack "Is it a bubble... nah!" was cringe even back in the day. All bubbles end, it's only forever for the hyppebeasts in the moment.

[@isaacc154]

Collapse? Daytona retail is $15k and double on secondary market.

[@HarryCollett]

For now.

[@rashakor]

Correct. This is not even a reversal to the mean. Wake me up when they reach well under 7-8k used.

[@tudorserban111]

​@@rashakorIf they ever reach that price then nobody will want them.

[@rkaplan11]

One of the best and most accurate expainations out there. It's all about the the economy shaping consumer behavior. Stimi checks, QE, near zero interest rates made people feel wealthy, while supply chains were bottlenecked, creating a classic bubble event.

[@christinebordeleau4459]

Always interesting to have better understanding of the big picture.

[@anthonybariek997]

I think a big part was also due to the introduction of the Rolex CPO. I think that some crooked AD’s, alongside the grey market and flippers massively exploited consumers and put all the blame on Rolex themselves. Rolex fought back by creating the CPO programme that put a ceiling on what the grey market could charge. And as we know from the car market, consumers would rather pay a little extra from a “main dealer” than a little less from an unknown dealer. This caused prices to drop as the grey market needed to make their stock more appealing. Then as Rolex is he barometer that all other watches are measured against, once their prices drop, everyone else follows suit

[@lettuce1305]

Problem is, until now the Rolex sold through CPO program are still significantly higher than in the secondary market.

[@matteosaini2283]

2 years and Rolex will make a 20% discount for buying their watches. I saw that 20/25 years ago in Italy and will come again in the market

[@LouisMorales-zx3jm]

Agree. I know i bought my Rolex at a discount and they threw in a winder, many years ago.

[@stevens1041]

I knew a guy that works as a manager at a local Italian grocery store, same deal. He got a Rolex GMT easily during a slowdown in Italy, about the same time period you mentioned.

[@onlythebest3311]

Pipe dream

[@krsmedley]

In 2 years? I can almost promise that will not happen. I’ve been hearing that since 2019 when it became impossible to get many models and prices have gone up prob 35-40% since then on some models.

[@rubelukeable]

Agreed. In 2016 I bought a Yachtmaster II at a15% discount from an AD in Philly. Unbelievable what’s transpired in the past 5 years. Just picked up a Polar Explorer II in Cabo last month while browsing at a local AD. Called me the next day and was available at retail. Still can’t believe I got it.

[@rowananderson8318]

I said this to someone at work with a GMT BLNR. I said anyone who bought one in 2022 must be hurting, and he said he was that guy. He paid £19k for it.

[@richardshaw1968]

Ouch

[@lettuce1305]

Ouch hope he really enjoys the watch and keeps it for the long term, it's unlikely for thr blnr to reach those heights ever again, not in the near future anyway.

[@CoxJohan]

Been watching your videos for a while now and was inspired to start a collection. Started with the MAMACOO, its specs for price and clean looks, now am looking for a dress watch to add.

[@BarilletMontre]

The best vidéo I saw about the watch market situation, congrats

[@colossusX1]

I am all for it as a collector. Watches should have never been seen as investments

[@ST0RMTOSSED]

Truth is that secondary market prices may be correcting, but at the same time, retail prices are skyrocketing look at SEIKO.

[@DanielDahl-i9p]

Youll soon see 20-25% discounts even for rolex and omega. I bought the kermit rolex for 20% off 15 years ago

[@ImWagon]

rappers found some other luxury items to devalue, AP and Patek are currently getting the Versace and Gucci treatment of 2016

[@Rudenbehr]

Lmfao

[@jjjrjjjr1]

@@RudenbehrDid the same thing with expensive champagne

[@dancarlton7973]

There was recently an NFL player showing off his $300,000 AP watch.

[@ImWagon]

@@dancarlton7973 yeah exactly.

[@Executor009]

Superb video and explanation.

[@tanorr1]

Excellent post.

[@ecthelion83]

It hasn't dropped enough, in my opinion. The hyperinflation in the secondary market due to speculators and opportunists/those who induce bubbles is absolutely unjustified; hopefully with this return to normalcy people will come back to their senses.

[@hexabr]

some people think that buying watches on ADs to get the rolex you want faster is luxury... that is just being played

[@mda7763]

That massive price drop hopefully is due to the fact that people are being less foolish. I love watches and I’ve got about a dozen and I’ve got a few nice ones and I make pretty good money and the most I’ve ever paid for watch is $2500 and in retrospect that was stupid The only reason to pay five figures for a watch is if you are willing to gamble that it’s going to go up so it’s basically just a form of gambling like horse racing. Maybe you win maybe you lose

[@hsvr]

agreed, spending excess over retail only emboldens those trying to flip

[@whereRbearsTeeth]

So basically you don’t have any nice watches.

[@kiz11a]

Wrong, many will pay five figures just to enjoy the timepiece that they love. Not every one is a collector, flipper or «investor»

[@lettuce1305]

Many will pay 5 figures just for the enjoyment of it. I mean yes resale value could be important for some but first and foremost buy the watch that you like.

[@DatamarkSystemsSL-Spain]

I agree but 50% as I do have very economical watches that I love ,also others in a 1000-2000€ range and very few (only 1) that rises up to 10.000€ .... I love them all but trully can not find a substitute in lower price range for each of them as they are all special for me.

[@bryanupton9872]

Very thorough and great recognition of macro economic policies.

[@harnaras2400]

This goes for AP, Patek , and Rolex. It’s call greed! Even authorized dealerships are bias towards new customers.

[@pjstartv6798]

The price of watches have gotten so out of hand that this can hardly be considered a "collapse". They're STILL too high. The high-end watch market has one of the highest profit margins of all industries in the entire world. The average authorized dealer of high-end brands like Rolex, Patek and Audemar is currently making 70%-90% profit margin on average which is completely absurd.

[@milestoneconsulting3261]

There is no AD making a 70-90% margin. The brand would be foolish to not increase prices to the AD. Retailers make 35 to 45% margin to cover costs of doing business and profit.

[@huna1950]

I’ve got friends in that game…it’s more around 50% mark up…then off of that hundreds of thousands in rent rates staff and a dozen other things you’d never think of….stick in at school tho kid

[@huna1950]

@@milestoneconsulting3261 like me your trying to explain reality to kids or grown men with little life experience of how systems and supply chains work

[@TheBrah808]

🎉🎉🎉 enjoying my Omegas 😂😂😂

[@Ouroboros67]

Great job Teddy!

[@drjustaniah]

Love the video, contents, outfit, and macros

[@p.j.4971]

Great video Teddy!

[@e36boy]

I almost bought a submariner in the secondary market because I wanted one for so long. I never bought even lusting for it for 5 years. I'll just wait 😂. I had the money but I was not willing to spend flipper prices. It also made my desire to own a sub wane a lot. I'll probably stick to my Seikos.

[@DrTune]

The entire point of wearing an expensive watch is to hope that other people notice it and think "that person has an expensive watch". IMO it just broadcasts "I am feeling inadequate and insecure in myself".

[@davidwg4967]

@@DrTunetypical stupid comment… once you learn the history of the watches brands, you will understand why they are so hyped (but to much today I agree)

[@dr.emilschaffhausen4683]

Some people said goals for themselves and meet those goals, and an expensive watch can be one of those goals. They can wear it around the house and still feel proud they earned it.

[@therealtw90]

Most important point you made is losing that lust for the watch. I had a similar experience with Speedmaster. It was my next watch, still is. But I watched the prices go up and I didn't want to overspend on it. So just patiently waiting for prices to go down has also driven down my excitement for the watch. I still want it and maybe now this is the opening to finally go after it

[@dr.emilschaffhausen4683]

@@therealtw90 Speedmaster is a much better way to spend money than going for a Rolex, but I do like both. You get a bit more for your money with Omega, even with their price hikes of late.

[@YaBoiPC]

As a senior economics Major, I applaud your astute application of the principles at play! Wonderful video!

[@cerealport2726]

Is an economics Major like a Major in the army, are people expected to salute...? Given that economists seem to be the ones that know the least about real-world economics, with their ideas and policies leading to things like the GFC, then I am not sure it's something to admit to.

[@YaBoiPC]

@ lol the GFC was caused by financial institutions over extending their lending and giving loans to unqualified buyers… and no, not like the Army. As in undergraduate student

[@cerealport2726]

@@YaBoiPC yeah, and how many "leading economists" didn't see the problem coming...? Basically all of them...

[@YaBoiPC]

@@cerealport2726 because it’s hard to know that: A. The housing market is going to collapse. B. Prime Debt securities have bad debts disproportionately mixed into them dishonestly, and the majority of the “security” is provided by the housing market’s stability. Both have to happen in unison to make that “perfect storm.” And without knowing “hmmm, something is up with the housing markets…” none is the wiser. The real people who knew were the people making the loans at the banks.

[@CHWatches]

Unfortunately rarity was manufactured by ADs and flippers. It was always going to collapse! I heard yesterday how much people were buying used watches for in 2017 and I wish I was apart of the community early enough to get those deals.

[@ViktorAlvar]

I was looking into buying a new sub date with a discount for around 5000 usd back in 2012, since then it's just become ridiculous. The speedmaster was 2900 usd

[@jeremybrees]

Loved this video - very interesting and educational. Thanks for the brief and concise summary of this blip in the watch market. So curious to see human behavior.

[@carbies2]

best video in a while, thanks!

[@ichibansantos10]

Passion and collecting is the way, I don't care about the grey market but it sure is interesting seeing people selling themselves on watch investment in the grey market

[@drcollumdc]

Dont forget dealers selling to other dealers, increasing the price each time. Same watch could change dealer hands 4-5 times, increasing by $500 each time.

[@atreidis3946]

You can’t get a Tudor buy a Rolex.

[@tellme1948]

Great Video, Thanks!

[@Ohyes-vw8wp]

Literally wow. So informative video clip this one. Pretty appreciate it for making this video. Teddy. Thanks.

[@ur_shulgi9133]

How about lack or originality? How many copies of the Seamaster in the same colors are out there… the PRX in almost same. Everyone is playing it safe and it’s boring.

[@Kev-3006]

In ‘69, quartz killed the mechanical watch market. Ironic and fitting that quartz is losing popularity due to “smart watches”.

[@agentbrandt]

Not really. There are still a lot of people who prefer traditional watches than smartwatches.

[@Davide.A.Visconti-Borghese]

Well, that's the curse of every hi-tech item: it will be soon surpassed and become useless, including shiny new smartwatches. On the other hand, mechanical watches will always be special and desirable, because they'll never be out of fashion.

[@megacab]

I love autos and quartz depending on need and environment. Never been a fan of a smartwatch though.

[@Davide.A.Visconti-Borghese]

@@megacab Same here. I prefer mechanical watches but I own a couple of G-Shocks too: I use them especially when I make sports, go to the gym or when I ride my Ducati (I fear the vibations could damage the movement of my mechanical watches).

[@Kev-3006]

@@megacab Same for me, I have 3 quartz. I think they’ll always have a place in the market. I’ll never own a smart watch however.

[@Takudza]

It’s like slipping into another universe when a video like this comes across my feed. People have different passions I guess.

[@stinsoncarter]

This is really an excellent piece of work.

[@Daidalosthe2nd]

Great summary

[@kingbonezai4925]

Lots of money= high demand + low production lead to low supply, meant prices exploded. Now as demand lessens and supply increases, the prices go back down. I would not call it a collapse though until the used market go for less than retail.

[@ahwhite2022]

I have an almost pathological adverse reaction to hype, and have been accused of a cynical and condescending response to crowds and popularity. I think it has served me well over the years, personally and financially. It does make me more susceptible than most to boutique brand marketing and oft-dismissed brands like one your own brand and fanbase seems less dismissive of - Grand Seiko.

[@realistic_delinquent]

I’m with you there! The irony of my aversion to trends has always been that I am willing to pay at least as much for a similar conspicuously luxurious object made to NOT be recognized at first glance.

[@whereRbearsTeeth]

GS sucks and is way overrated. I’ll take a Rolex movement all day long over a GS

[@ahwhite2022]

@@whereRbearsTeeth That’s nice, dear.

[@rashakor]

@@whereRbearsTeethLol! There’s a hype victim triggered!

[@ahwhite2022]

@@rashakor wait... you think there's "hype" for Grand Seiko? It gets dismissed with an eyeroll at best all over the watch snob world, where somehow after-market sales prices are used to justify (or induce) demand. And I clearly admitted I am uniquely to certain marketing, such as that of Grand Seiko (and regular ol' Seiko, too, to be honest). You, though? You sound like either a teenager or someone still stuck mentally in high school.

[@pirate4460]

My lesbian roommates gave me a Rolex for my birthday. They misunderstood when I said "I wanna watch"

[@cerealport2726]

I guess when you asked for a two-hander, they also misunderstood?

[@danrook5757]

8/10 on the funny factor

[@Emeric62]

That was a thing 20 years ago, a datejust was cheaper than a flatscreen TV

[@riccardo1724]

Great video, well done Teddy!

[@cesarm2242]

Nice Vid, keep up the good work Teddy

[@pyruvicsynthase5879]

there's no market crash... its rather 'market correction'

[@forrest714]

You miss an important part also, replicas, reps got so good in the last few years compared to the last decade because of this demand. The sneaker market saw a demand of reps too, look where Nike is at right now lol Only super hype models are reselling right now for sneakers. And it's the same with watches right now.

[@Alexpress81]

DO NOT buy over MSRP and it WILL continue to fall. 100% certainty by law of the market

[@BruceCross]

I completely agree with you, but unfortunately, desperate people will cave-in and overpay.

[@nuudelz3711]

It’s not a free market though it’s controlled by a selection of dealers

[@Ibra-allam]

Fantastic analysis Teddy.

[@neuroidcastle]

This video is masterful in storytelling, great job.

[@paperpaper8621]

its because of utubers like him, the hype started in the first place

[@DanielDahl-i9p]

True. They become immune to the high prices and huge price increases. A 10k watch is nothing to them, the number doesnt register ad expensive

[@DonaldMark-ne7se]

Building wealth involves developing good habits like regularly putting money away in intervals for solid investments. Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate the stability of the market and precisely when the change is going to happen, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every 7week these past 4months according to Bloomberg.

[@kevinmarten]

the strategies are quite rigorous for the regular-Joe. As a matter of fact, they are mostly successfully carried out by pros who have had a great deal of skillset/knowledge to pull such trades off.

[@Jamessmith-12]

I wholeheartedly concur; I'm 60 years old, just retired, and have about $1.25m in non-retirement assets. Compared to the whole value of my portfolio during the last three years, I have no debt and a very little amount of money in retirement accounts. To be completely honest, the information provided by invt-advisors can only be ignored but not neglected. Simply undertake research to choose a trustworthy one.

[@JacquelinePerrira]

Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service? Seems you've figured it all out.

[@Jamessmith-12]

There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

[@JacquelinePerrira]

She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.

[@alexanderfinlay9639]

I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2025, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks this year. Hope to make millions this 2024.

[@BillAdamson-bp9ff]

It's true that many people minimize the importance of advisers until their own feelings burn them out. A few summers ago, following a protracted divorce, I needed a significant boost to keep my business afloat. I looked for licensed advisors and found someone with the highest qualifications. She has contributed to my reserve increasing from $275k to $850k despite inflation.

[@aigajenkinson2495]

I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?

[@BillAdamson-bp9ff]

“ Kristin Amy Rose '' is the coach that guides me, She has years of financial market experience, you can use something else but for me her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.

[@aigajenkinson2495]

she actually appears to be well-read and educated. I just did a Google search for her name and found her webpage, I appreciate you sharing

[@jpdemer5]

@@aigajenkinson2495 Do you ever get tired of talking to yourself? Fake engagement reported to YT.

[@ninjabyspin]

Excellent presentation

[@TouhidulIslam-CTL]

Very informative video, thanks!

[@guyplay]

The market was over priced and the prices are still ridiculously inflated. The Daytona shouldn’t exceed $7k. I own two Omegas, my dad’s Rolex Day Just, a Mido and several Seikos. I’m sticking with Seiko.

[@MrMustangrick]

This no such a watch called the Rolex Day Just.

[@cpcxgsr]

Secondary market crash? What crash? DSW is still selling a 10yr old sub for $13k. That’s close to double what ADs were selling new. If you’re going to say “crash”, I would imagine a 10 year old Sub (used) would be selling for $8-$9k. Which isn’t the case. I would say the market corrected itself. And secondary markets are still super inflated

[@Sams911]

Collapse? Ever try to buy a GMT Meteorite dial? I"m 4 years waiting with two different AD's with purchase history and I'm still waiting... meanwhile they're going for $60K for a new 2024 in the gray market.

[@kingsleyevans3918]

Obviously haven’t spent enough or they don’t see you as a top customer

[@VegaVeniVidiVici]

That’s the “Superman” and $44600retail new. Chrono24 has one just a little over. But there are risks. I would wait.

[@Sams911]

@@VegaVeniVidiVici the one on Chrono 24 at that price is a 2019 no box and papers... I want new, BNIB.. that's close to 60 or more gray market

[@kelorednaxela]

Congratulations on waiting on an imaginary watlist. I don't understand people who are willing to wait to buy an overpriced, atrificially scarce watch and be at the mercy of a seller who basically lies to them.

[@Sams911]

@@kelorednaxela thanks

[@matthewloitz4044]

Excellent synopsis

[@erikmemo]

Great video please do more like this