假如加拿大比美國先減息，加幣就會大跌？五大因素決定加元升跌 (1)

#加元匯率

[@jamesf5062]

（1）利率走勢不是靠price in （2）似乎沒有提及一個很重要的因素是相對於美元的購買能力Purchasing Power Parity （PPP)

[@NoName-oz6hw]

加減息效應冇得price in㗎，資金只會响真正加咗息或減咗息先動作，等如唔會有人賣咗啲股票放銀行等加息，亦唔會有人因為預期減息而將存款轉去高息股，最多只會做短啲定期，加減息預期一股係反映响期貨同其他衍生工具上面

[@hoolala35]

就近來price action，似price in左

[@jasminelai9459]

You are not totally correct. What you said is just retail people action. Institutional investors run ahead that

[@NoName-oz6hw]

@@jasminelai9459 所以咪話反映响期貨上面囉

[@Esther_Ho_Saxophone_Music]

第一，通涱率跟通脹是不同的，通賬率是一段時間物價生話指數之平均的比較，通賬則是基本生活物價之價格的比較，如衣食住行價格,如通賬真是下調，生活開支是否下調呢？但我們在加生活支出卻沒減！如外𣾀下跌又會否輸入通賬？皆因加拿大是美國第三貿易伙伴，加美貿赤由2022-2023也是增長中！地原政治風險是否下降？以巴，俄烏，紅海，南海，台海乃然沒降溫趨勢！油價乃長跌不定，如真的減息，會否是滯賬或衰退的徵象？

[@billliu1141]

美国有叶岩油可以出口，以前需要在加拿大入口

[@josephwong604]

可否解釋為什麼低的CPI，通常減低貨幣的價值。一般是這樣的，但一些細小的國家如亞根庭，往往是相反的。我希望從相反的角度看，假若美國的CPl比加拿大的更差(即更高)，是不是說美元購買的能力降低，是不是因此當看淡美元？市場除了看息差，是不是也當看國債的升覆和其他的因數？

[@mabel6046]

Thank you!!

[@jimli1355]

加拿大10年國債息由1月約3.1%升至今日3.66%，市場預期6月，加央不會減息的。除非突然出現經濟衰退。不過機會很底。

[@FamilyCheung-kc1pw]

Notp truth , market expects interest rate will drop this June.

[@lindada538]

Interest rate will drop at a chance of 75%

[@stephenn88]

jimmy 經濟差 沒人買加拿大債 利率咪上升

[@chriswong8586]

我都好想睇吓加拿大今年點減息

[@chrishung9338]

加拿大經濟發展 無方向 無新資金投資 稅制太複雜

[@eugeneysaye2685]

听得特別开心， 原來那么多人吾识估，乱估，或估錯。 I mean 我都吾系最笨嗰個😅

[@pat13487]

❤

[@lokkelvin4031]

敵人會預期「你嘅預期」，所以…都系聽下就算～認真便輸了！最緊要做好不同認對方案…早過美國減息、遲過美國減息、真·假·開戰情況…不過…最後都只能講…計劃通常都跟唔上變化。

[@papaul8566]

三大主因

[@wanggok]

去美國吾使塞車咯

[@timmyng6045]

樓主真係唔知道加拿大元曾經高過美元幾次，1加元對1·1美元呀！正所謂十年河東十年河西，樓主真係信你一成死於非命。

[@gumcimau1318]

Deleting my comment only shows that your comments are not up to par. We will see what happens in ten years, I suggest you keep your US counterpart. I do welcome your response in correcting my humble comment. Go right ahead.

[@beyondKOL]

I never delete anyone’s comments … 🤔🤔

[@gumcimau1318]

@@beyondKOL This was my comment that somehow disappeared. Let's see if it stays there. If we refer to the historical chart of the US Dollar (DXY) since 1973, it clearly shows a very solid base formed since the nineties in between 120 and around 70, so 120 is a very important level for the US dollar. A breach of the US Dollar above 120 in the index will see the US Dollar trading at 160 or above, so to say that one Canadian dollar will be valued at 50 cents US is highly possible when we see the US dollar trading at around 160. What makes the US Dollar to be so strong? It could be turmoil in world affairs, and do not neglect an increasingly high interest rates will strengthen the US Dollar considerably within the next ten years. So, when cash is king, it should be referring to the US Dollar. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY/USDX) chart development from January 1973 to May 2024 www.statista.com/statistics/1404145/us-dollar-index-historical-chart/

[@gumcimau1318]

@@beyondKOL A big lier you are. Delete this statement to confirm.

[@NoName-oz6hw]

好多時係KZbin 自己censor 啲敏感詞，你試下留言粗口鬧下人，唔使一分鐘就冇咗

[@mafan1345]

係，當KZbin AI sense 到敏感字眼和violence 舉動, 佢會自動delete comment。利申:本人亦曾經莫名其妙被remove comment