John Mearsheimer: Will Israel and Ukraine derail the US pivot to Asia

CIS Executive Director Tom Switzer’s interview with Professor Mearsheimer on ABC Radio National.
______________________________________________________________________________________________
CIS promotes free choice and individual liberty and the open exchange of ideas. CIS encourages debate among leading academics, politicians, media and the public. We aim to make sure good policy ideas are heard and seriously considered so that Australia can prosper. Follow CIS on our Socials;
Twitter - / cisoz
Facebook - / centreindependentstudies
Linkedin - / the-centre-for-indepen...
Telegram - t.me/centreforindependentstudies
📖 Read more from CIS here: www.cis.org.au/
💬 Join in the conversation in the comments.
👍 Like this video if you enjoyed it and want to see more, it really helps us out!
🔔 Subscribe to our channel and click the bell to watch our videos first: / @cisaus
⏲️ Missed this event live? Subscribe to CIS to be up to date with all our events:
www.cis.org.au/subscribe/
📝 Subscribe to CIS mailing list- www.cis.org.au/subscribe/
💳 Support us with a tax-deductible donation at - www.cis.org.au/support/

[@rebeccawoolfolk5377]

Mearsheimer is so rational. It's always a relief to hear from him amidst the clamor of overemotional voices.

[@chrisc2671]

Rational? How? Explain to me, since your hero never does, how NATO expansion some how encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine, let alone that Putin has no interest in conquering Ukraine.

[@Charles-pf7zy]

mostly rational. he's dying on the hill of "russian's never meant to conquer Ukraine" copium all because they sent *only* 190k combat troops in. America conquered all of Iraq with 200k combat troops, and there is no reason to believe Putin didn't think he'd be able to do the same. If the northern Kyiv front was just a feint, or some sort of "locking" position to keep UA occupied, they would not have even had to send the troops in. They could have easily just did minor incursions while shooting missiles from Belarus and that would have been plenty to keep Ukraine from committing more forces to the East. Instead, Russia lost thousands of men and material, in addition to their elite VDV brigade getting decimated in Hostomel, not to mention the infamous 40 mile convoy, as well as sending in special forces to try to assassinate Zelensky, it's pretty damn obvious they intended to conquer the country through shock and awe. Not to mention, Russia did not even need troops in the north. They could have sent those troops in through the East on a narrower front and easily been victorious in the East anyways. They bit off more than they could chew and they thought they could conquer the country. None of their actions have suggested otherwise. If the only objective was just to conquer the eastern part, they would have just sent those northern troops in through the East instead. Any other conclusion is just mental gymnastics copium.

[@Charles-pf7zy]

not to mention success would actually have been *easier* if they just used missile attacks from the north and kept a division or so troops ready but not engaged at the border. Because that would have incentivized Ukraine to simply cede the Eastern territory for fear that the threat from the North could try to come and take the whole thing. Ceding eastern territory would have been a de-escalatory incentive for Ukraine because they wouldn't want to risk being entirely enveloped and conquered. Morale to defend the east would have been low in the UA if Putin kept some of his cards hidden. Instead, they tried to take the whole country which backed the dog into a corner in a battle for survival which is why Ukraine overperformed in the initial stages of the war. If they had thought Putin only wanted the East they probably would have just ceded it to him. The northern front was clearly not a diversionary attack, it was a hail mary with the intention of conquering the capital and thus the country. Mearsheimer is trying to retroactively bend the history to suit his preconceived notions, that Russia had always only wanted the Eastern part of Ukraine. He is completely closed off to the idea that Russia thought they could pull off a 2003 Iraq Invasion level of success despite all evidence being overwhelming that that is in fact what they tried to do.

[@oswarz]

@@Charles-pf7zy Hmm..seems to me that scenario is how the West would have thought and what the West would have done. Russia is not the West. I believe incentives are different, tactics are different, goals are not the same the West would have in the same circumstances.

[@Charles-pf7zy]

​ @oswarz I have enough respect for the Russian Officers to know they wouldn't be stupid enough to send so many men and material to die just for a feint. There have been many feints in history. The MEU during the Gulf War for example, was good enough to tie up a significant amount of Iraqi forces, and they never even landed. Threatening Ukraine with troops and missiles on the Belarussian border would have been enough to coerce the Ukrainians to give up the Eastern regions. In that scenario, Biden would have begged for a ceasefire in order to not potentially lose all of Ukraine. Only after the failed assault on Kyiv did NATO realize they had a chance to repel the invasion and that's when the mass armaments came in. I don't even blame Russia for thinking they could take Kyiv. All the UAF past performances and intel showed they should have folded. America has made many many similarly wrong judgement calls too. John Mearsheimer in the past has said he did not believe Russia wanted all of Ukraine. John is also correct about most things, so he is not used to being wrong. That is why he is performing mental gymnastics to claim his evaluation of Putin was flawless. It's okay. We are all wrong sometimes. Even experts.@@oswarz

[@bassgrinder]

Kudos to Professor Mearsheimer for not backing down from denoucing the occupation as the main problem that needs to be addressed.

[@nataliedoyle4701]

And also kudos to him for debunking all the Western myths surrounding the supposed Palestinian refusal to negotiate.

[@toby9999]

Except he's wrong.

[@toby9999]

​@@nataliedoyle4701They're not myths.

[@nataliedoyle4701]

@@toby9999 That's for historians to say.

[@toby9999]

​​@@nataliedoyle4701Yeah, and I'm also saying it. I'm old enough to remember them refusing peace.

[@HVD23]

This interviewer needs to be schooled on how to ask questions without bias. The idea is to get info flowing not to take a side on issues.

[@davidclayton.1511]

He's the head of a think tank. So donors play a big part in his neutrality. For example, He completely overlooked the rabid fanatics in the Israeli government.

[@GaaraNous]

@@davidclayton.1511Agree totally. Israel is also bent on totally destroying Palestine and eradicating every Palestinian out of their homeland and replacing them with Israeli Jews. There is never a second that this interviewer stop to think of this.

[@davidclayton.1511]

@@GaaraNous he knows. He can't say it out loud. The zionists are quite influential in Australia.

[@FrancoisMouton-iu7jt]

Disagree with Mearsheimer on one point. The US hegemon dominated the world through military means whereas China advocates a multi polar world where each country is granted equal respect and the ability to negotiate it's terms of trade.

[@davidclayton.1511]

Exactly!

[@katong1953]

The west's hypocritical stance is that the terrorist state of Israel may wage brutal war on Palestinians, but Palestinians cannot wage war on Israel. Hence, any attack by Palestinians on Israel is by US empire and western definition terrorism. The likely explanation for this blatant bias is racism. The brown Palestinians has been called animals by Israeli leaders, apparently with the silent approval of the west. On the other hand, every time Israel is mentioned you'd think of white people as this is the image presented to the world. The Palestinians have every right to wage war on Israel to free themselves from the brutal colonialism and apartheid under the terrorist state of Israel.

[@katong1953]

The US is trying to solve its economic problems by military means. This is stupid. Yet, the entire west and Australia agree with this idiocy. It's like trying to solve astronomical problems using astrology.

[@margaritadubrovina7063]

❤love your comment

[@jusmeetsingh1907]

If one considers US and China to be the only real superpowers in the geopolitical domain (not military not economic but a combination of the two). Say China = 0.8 x USA & Europe = 0.5 x USA & Russia = 0 5 x USA. Then if the alignment is US + Europe versus China + Russia That amounts to 1 + 0.5 vs 0.8 + 0.5 1.5 vs 1.3 No clear edge But if the alignment is US + Europe + China versus Russia That amounts to 1 + 0.5 + 0.5 vs 0.8 Or 2 vs 0.8 An isolated China would have been a non-starter. But the foolishness of the US neocons in targeting Russia through continuous provocations and aggressive posturings and forcing them into Chinese hands..This is beyond comprehension and crosses all bounds.

[@adamkallin5160]

The problem is that Israel is not fundamentally interested in a peace agreement. They are interested in pushing all Palestinians out of the region. And they have the unconditional support of the US so what reason do they have to genuinely negotiate?

[@user-et2ng1qb2m]

Exactly. Israel wants a Greater Israel, always has, always will. And they will drag the U.S into this as well it's allies.

[@jeffpostman9928]

The motivation is that that support is quickly drying up.

[@mariaserenabazziparadiso7935]

Prof. Mearsheimer, you should point out that Arafat rejected the deal because the Israelis refused the return of all displaced Palestinians to the state of Palestine. Israel pointed out as a security problem to Israel if all Palestinians return to the state of Palestine.

[@justingoretoy1628]

Wow, I didn't realize the Camp David Talks broke apart over such trivial disagreements.

[@andy_ppp]

@@justingoretoy1628 why would that be trivial? Seems an impossible gap to bridge I’d say, the idea of another 4 million Palestinians (+) returning home to the region would obviously be upsetting to Israel and a red line for Palestinians. Arafat should have just signed the deal though and then turned a blind eye to people returning.

[@justingoretoy1628]

@@andy_ppp This wasn't undone, it wasn't an agreement torn apart, not even a disagreement over something like "Israel has to give up their nukes, can't have more than 6,000 active duty personnel" or anything like that. Yeah Israel wouldn't be happy about that, but that's why it's a compromise. To me that seems like an easily negotiable issue.

[@andy_ppp]

@@justingoretoy1628the Israelis and Palestinians obviously disagreed with you at the time… maybe they know where their red lines are better than you do.

[@hermionegranger__]

That's crazy, just another proof Israeli so selfish in their policy towards this conflicts.

[@davidscully2414]

does Tom know anything about the history of palestine???

[@jamesng7320]

They settled on lands vacated by the Isralites after the Isralites were expelled by the Roman Empire. What more is there to know?

[@RayMelville]

The contrast between Tom and his guest couldn’t be starker. One has deep knowledge of the issue and very rational in his thinking the other is Tom.

[@TeeTee-zm2re]

Sounds clueless. Has absolutely zero knowledgeable of the situation

[@user-et2ng1qb2m]

​@@jamesng7320Can you give us historical evidence outside of the bible for this? Did the Romans expel all citizens in that land? Because I do know the claim is that there were people living there before the Jews. And even if we go with your fancy, how old is Australia, America etc? Indigenous people of these lands have factual and much more recent arguments for the right to their lands. Would you agree that means they have the right to kick you and your out of your homes, towns and villages? That makes much more sense than the Israeli claim - Indigenous people were the first and only inhabitants of Australia, their claims are backed by science and it's recent history. The Zionist claims are nonsensical and they are facing a native population point blank refuse to being disconnected from the land, their culture and identity

[@huming66]

Mearsheimer's thesis "China's rise would not be peaceful" is actually saying "US power will allow no one to rise, regardless peaseful or not"

[@suprememasteroftheuniverse]

You're just advocating Chinese imperialism, minion.

[@toofaint]

exactly

[@ericsuarez834]

That's correct

[@donparky1812]

spot on

[@whirledpeas1663]

If China has wolf warrior diplomacy, then the West has mad-dog diplomacy😂

[@obarack888]

Scott Morrison was one of those top mad-dogs. China-Australia relationship started to improve the moment ScoMo got booted out of the prime minister office.

[@robertko5425]

Look at it this way - The USA LOST a war to the North Vietnamese with the FALL OF Saigon (now ho-Chi-Minh City) on April 27, 1976, and LOST another war to the Taliban (formerly the Mujahedeen FREEDOM FIGHTERS) in Afghanistan (aka the graveyard of empires) two years ago with the FALL OF Kabul on August 15, 2021. Do you all think AUKUS, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea would want to get involved in another US led war in Asia ??? This pending conflict between the USA and China is NOT only because of Taiwan, but this as well - kzbin.info/www/bejne/rKvJZWCYgr2Bnrs&ab_channel=WahLaoEh%21Singapore Also, the US lead unipolar world is DEAD now, with Beijing's Multipolar world and BRICS is taking over from those warmongering neocon LOSERS in DC now. Also, do you all remember that the late Ho Chi-Minh once called the USA a Paper Tiger ??? Also, WAR no longer works anymore, since the ones being attacked by the US, UK, EU & NATO are FIGHTING BACK now!!! THIW's.

[@herman9255]

China doesn't send bombers to cruise off the coast of California

[@crowrequiem3934]

Well Nixon did start the whole madman diplomacy

[@robertko5425]

@@crowrequiem3934 You are somewhat correct about Nixon. This madman diplomacy started after the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1965 when then POTUS Lyndon B Johnson decided to escalate the situation rather than have dialogue and diplomacy with the North Vietnamese to resolve same. The same incident happened in 1968 with the USS Pueblo, and the infamous 1967 USS Liberty incident as well.

[@GaryAskwith1in5]

If only more Australians weren’t so in the wilderness and listened to Mearsheimer more over the last 2 decades!

[@elaine1034]

They can't do anything because they and Canadians are still a colony of the UK. Just like Ireland, Scotland and others still have the UK boot on their necks with the USA backing.

[@HVD23]

I cant believe the interviewer with shallow understanding of global politics.

[@mezzuna]

Ozzy bro still thinks ukrops are winning

[@RobertWilliams-us4kw]

I find this interview somewhat odd - where as Tom Switzer is an ardent politically aligned neocon Sinophob, Prof Mearsheimer is a much more level-headed realist who can and does separate the realities of China.

[@peterdefreitas5936]

These Australian people believe whatever the USA tell them, so obviously they think Ukraine are winning the WAR so my response as a UK citizen is this 🥵😂😂😂😂😂

[@BrettHar123]

I am an Australian, I don't know anyone who thinks Ukraine is winning, or anyone who believes that the Russians started the war. As a UK citizen, how do you feel about your government being a party to overthrowing the legitimate Ukrainian President, arming and training the Nazi Regime which killed over 14,000 civilians in the Donbass over eight years, for the sin of speaking Russian?

[@mudelta4068]

@@BrettHar123 Fair point, I too am Australian, but Australia has been sending arms to Ukraine too, and has, under both parties, been fully behind the US and UK agenda at every turn. @peterdefreitas5936 was speaking from experience of UK also doing what the US dictates.

[@mudelta4068]

@@BrettHar123 @peterdefreitas5936 did sound like a PoMpous oily tick in how he commented tho ....🤣🤣😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@mikeevans7532]

It doesn't matter whether Ukraine wins or not. After the war, it is clear that Ukraine's sluggish economy can not provide jobs for these skilled soldiers. In order to make a living, they will become the cheapest mercenaries and then die in Israel, Africa, Korea and Taiwan. This is a sad prediction and I hope it will not come true.

[@mudelta4068]

@@mikeevans7532 I don't think there are many "skilled soldiers" remaining on the Ukrainian side. They have gone through three armies. Each less capable and trained as the last.

[@hurdygurdyman3114]

Two state solution is the only solution,not genocide of the Palestinians people which currently is Israels current outlook which is plainly a vengeful and archaic mentality.

[@yoramgt]

It's neither vengeful nor archaic. It's the age-old strategy of the colonialists against the locals. Dispossess, enslave, kill, claim to be the victim.

[@user-xg7bl8tc6r]

Sorry Professor, it is not for the Australian's interest, it's for the US interest. Unfortunately, the Australian government has been manipulated by the US to secure Asia for the US.

[@jameswebber2943]

heading that way. Australia should be neutral but have an army etc

[@jamesgarden-dm9bm]

You are wise. Professor Mearsheimer is rational but he is still a US professor...

[@j.k.1239]

Australian government and UK have always been biggest US puppets.

[@bonnieblodgett]

just as Ukraine should be neutral, which is all Putin requested of them. @@jameswebber2943

[@antonseoane9092]

Listen, in not a USA supporter or even from the US, but Australia has to choose between being a US satellite and a Chinese satellite, and its undestandable why they would go with the country they share a language and institutions with, as well as military cooperation. I wish every country would be able to stand on their own but we dont really live in that world.

[@johnaggiss228]

John, the U.S. doesn't Want peace they never do!!

[@freeloader247]

Fantastic man. Unbelivebly polite. Some other person would be cursing back and forth to prove a point, callin names and such. But not Mr Mearsheimer. Very polite gentleman. A joy to listen.

[@whirledpeas1663]

Australia is a US colony😂

[@iviedd]

What an amazing intellectual ! Never a bad take from him.

[@Kid_Ikaris]

The way he lays things out is incredible. We get to follow his logic step by step.

[@gabrielperezmurillo3583]

Professor Mearsheimer is a great scholar. His theories of international relations and great power politics are more relevant than ever !

[@muamersmajic3072]

48:31 48:31

[@cadicamo8720]

His bs theories are theoretical justifications for big power imperialism.

[@sophiarevel6952]

Thank you for talking to prof Mearsheimer.

[@MSArtist01]

The Daily Telegraph or the Australian the Murdoch Press is not a place to get an informed opinion.

[@eymeeraosaka2954]

Great revelation by Prof Mearsheimer that if the US is at war with China over Taiwan, Australia will has no choice but to join in the war alongside the US. So will Japan. But what about South Korea? My view is that Australia participation in the war will be insignificant as it is too far away and so is its military. But if this were to happen, Russia and North Korea may also join the war alongside China. As the US and its allies continues to talk and talk about a possible war with China over Taiwan, China continues to build more and more modern warships, submarines, aircrafts and missiles. And this will eventually force the US to abandon its objective of containing China. I would think trade intercourse and security competition are mutually exclusive especially when the intentions of the US vis-a-vis China are clear and unambiguous? The fact that China is still willing to engage in trade intercourse with Australia is most likely because China does not perceive Australia to be a security competitor. Australia is more than 7000km from China and it does not has the capability to launch an attack on China being so far away. And I do not believe Prof view that China is a security threat to Australia too. China has no strategic interest in Australia except the presence of US military assets as China trade routes runs from the Middle East, Indian Ocean, Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea. So far away from Australia.

[@method341]

if S Korea joins the war, it will be the first casualty. I don't think the US is capable of defending it and Taiwan at the same time.

[@229andymon]

Agreed. As for a US war with China, Taiwan is acknowledged by US to be part of China. So - US going to war with China over Taiwan would be the equivalent of China going to war with USA if it ever happened that Texas decided to secede.

[@omashqureshi9921]

You are right, but with Australia n China both having refueling in air capability,they are threat to each other especially after Australisa gets NUCLEAR SUBMARINES.

[@ltribley]

If there is war, China DOES HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO TARGET AND DESTROY ALL MILITARY ASSETS IN AUSTRALIA. Because you are a major staging ground, and home for nuclear warheads, they will destroy everything possible and they can do this by launching ballistic missiles with conventional warheads either land based or by sub. They can also use their multi warhead glide vehicles. Nothing will survive and expect 1,000's of civilian deaths. You made a major mistake by becoming another U.S. proxy. Your people will die while Americans at home will just say, “glad it’s not us”!

[@banjo1434]

South Korea is a peninsula. Sooner or later, they will have to tap into cheap Russian energy and China's Belt and Road. Failing that, they are doomed. Korean unification is inevitable.

[@jogobonito1234]

Mearsheimer is the one and only. Thanks for uploading this video

[@Thewestslope]

Good interview. Switzer comes across as partisan and narrow-minded but all he is doing is asking questions from prevailing perceptions and popular narratives. Switzer in effect gives Mearsheimer a good opportunity to rebut these popular and misleading narratives. Thumbs up.

[@Kavala76]

Switzer would do well to reduce his intake of "traditional" media and seek more independent sources. Corporate media is there to manipulate your perceptions and attitudes, not to inform you.

[@zackhawn5944]

Never forget the USS Liberty

[@nikiyoussef55]

most Americans dont know about it 🤣🤣🤣

[@j.sarnak1391]

I did not think it could get worse, then the host brings up Ukraine and really brings out pure propaganda

[@blackjackpinoko]

Why contain China?

[@mudelta4068]

What? Why? Look, you need to rational. So, it's because ..... democracy.... goodness....leadership...freedom .... righteousness ..... antisemitism ........Isis....communism ... authoritarianism .... fast train subsidies .... haven't you been listening???? I'd much rather have a car clogged city, a freeway from the airport and NO FAST TRAINS EVER OK. and the greatest wealth disparity ever. Public transport means you support chinese genocide. And thus Hamas. Antisemitic. Putin FFS. PUTIN!!!! See, being rational is easy!

[@secondlook]

Great conversation! Good work CIS for bringing Dr Mearsheimer out

[@tonyjohanningsmeier5597]

🎉

[@TurdF3rguson]

I really hate this talking point that Tom used that "the Palestinians aren't exactly innocent here." It implies an ahistorical reversal of causality. In other words, it suggests that Israel is oppressing Palestinians *because* of the violent acts of Hamas or other Palestinian resistance/terrorist groups. Sure, those acts can in turn trigger more oppression and brutal treatment, but that's not where this history started.

[@TeeTee-zm2re]

Exactly. The Palestinian should be good little occupied people and live as slaves. This guy!

[@hoots187]

A well articulated comment on KZbin? End of days are truly upon us.

[@user-et2ng1qb2m]

Not only is it not where the history started, the illegal and brutal occupation of Palestinian territories is ongoing. Palestinians were under seige on Oct 6th, 5th, 3rd etc. It's disturbing that the oppression that Palestinian live under has become so normalise that we consider that is peace and not ongoing violence, oppression and tyranny. We wake from a slomber on the occasion that they strike back and even then we only get told the impact that strike had on the Isrealis.

[@smirhash]

Thank you Dr Mearsheimet and CIS for this great interview.

[@moustaphahadiatoudiallo1676]

😅😅😅😅😅😅😅

[@j.sarnak1391]

There is no doubt this is paid for by pro Israel lobby it is not an honest discussion. Mearsheimer attempts to push back against the hysterical host but he is not being truthful

[@Western_Decline]

this host is so comically biased in favor of israel

[@QualityPen]

@@Western_DeclineAnd Ukraine. Nobody who follows this conflict objectively and gets their news from more diverse sources than Western mainstream media (which just repeats what Western governments say) believes Ukraine is winning. The host places so much attention on the fact that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is rebasing with 90% of its ships intact to a different port to avoid constant harassment by drones while omitting the fact that Ukraine doesn’t even have a navy anymore. The Russian Navy was designed to attack surface combat groups, of which Ukraine has none of. The only role the Russian Black Sea Fleet plays today is a missile launch platform, but the Kalibr cruise missile has a 2,000 km range, that’s just about far enough to reach London from Crimea, rebasing 150 km to the east will not change a thing, except make the fleet harder to strike. He also cites the Ukrainian claim that it struck the Black Sea Fleet HQ, but apparently he doesn’t know the building was not in use at the time since important meetings during wartime take place in bunkers, not 19th century structures undergoing renovations, and the officers Ukraine claimed to have killed have since been seen in other meetings. All that taken together tells me that while the host may be honest, he just accepts the analysis of the situation from less-than-honest talking heads like Petraeus without thinking for himself, and relies solely on the statements of Western governments or Ukraine, paying no attention to any contrary information.

[@alibalaabdullahi6531]

Thank you Professor for your unbiased interview

[@mns8732]

Thanks tor posting his point of view

[@oxvendivil442]

Just because the Jews suffered the holocaust doesn't mean that they get a carte blanche/blank check and entitlement to do whatever they want and use their victim card as a shield to cover for their less than acceptable deeds and beliefs/Zionism, let's call it for what it is, occupation is occupation. This doesn't absolve Hamas of their crimes but the issues need to be taken in context and what precipitated their actions; if the Palestinians/Arabs/Muslims win, these very people will be hailed as desperado freedom fighters, forced to the dark side due to their circumstances and desperation, romantics will view them as tragic heroes.

[@davidtrujillo993]

A man who lived to see his predictions become real even when he did not want to.

[@cadicamo8720]

LOL He didn't predict shit. He didn't predict Russia's fascist imperialism would destroy Ukraine... He just gave a justification for any aggression against Ukraine and said "if something happens.... Only the US it's to blame!"😂😂😂 So deep... Deep into putinist propaganda!

[@inuwooddog3027]

I believe there are more significant variables that we should consider. The decline of the United States is not improving with each passing day, and it is not correlated with the rise of China. What if this decline continues, and China just never becomes the comical adversary the U.S. has bet on?

[@nandehutu3044]

Fix the leaky southern border first

[@bkay7781]

Good discussion 👌

[@adamnogender565]

Brilliant!, thankyou!! :)

[@deerskin4225]

John Mearsheimer ❤

[@marshadingle3550]

YAY just the person I wanted to hear from.

[@toby9999]

This is like saying it's not worth enforcing laws because there'll always be more crooks.

[@Moigle1]

The interviewer takes Western propaganda far too seriously. Mearsheimer is always amazing.

[@georgekennan6213]

Incredible analysis by Mearsheimer

[@229andymon]

From an American nationalist POV.

[@alecfoster4413]

@@229andymon Not at all. He is anti-war and anti-neocon and neolib.

[@229andymon]

@@alecfoster4413In an interview he was asked if he would advocate US military intervention should China invade Taiwan. He said yes. That doesn’t spell anti war to me. As for the Ukraine war, he’s against that because he reckons the US needs to bring Russia into a US led anti China alliance, I’m not convinced it’s because he’s anti war. He also wants to see the global US hegemony continuing. He’s a clever man and a good man, but he’s no dove.

[@alecfoster4413]

@@229andymon Being against China invading Taiwan IS anti-war. But that's kind of moot as China will not invade Taiwan. That is a contrived neocon talking point. But you are correct; he's not anti-war per se. I was not clear and stand corrected on that point. He is anti-interventionist where America's interests are not involved and he does believe in diplomacy first. Strict pacifism can be argued to be immoral. Orwell wrote a brilliant essay on that topic.

[@229andymon]

He’s not just against China invading Taiwan (can you invade what is recognised to be your own country?) he said he’d advocate US military intervention if they did. How can you justify that? However regrettable that would be, it pales into insignificance when considering the outcome of what Mearscheimer is suggesting. As for the possibility of China invading Taiwan, that would probably be triggered by a US recognition of the independence of Taiwan. You can’t foresee that? And if it does happen, from which side of the US political divide would that come? His every thought is predicated on what’s best for US, not any principle like “peace” or democracy etc, just naked US national interest, and on what will maintain the status quo of US global hegemony. Which was a highly questionable goal when US had the means to carry that out, dangerous now it can’t. I’ll give you he definitely prefers the glove to the iron fist within, but that just makes him a clever nationalist.

[@tigris4247]

If Tom really believes David Petraeus of all people! (as he seems to do), then he's silly, indeed. Talking about Sebastopol! Nothing happened there, except bombing of an old building and some ships. They just moved ships further away. As the Professor said, so what?

[@binaryagenda]

Thanks for uploading this, it's a great interview

[@elshazlio]

John Mearsheimer’s is the most refreshing voice among American political pundits

[@stellabrown909]

Agree

[@Waleed-gw6wf]

Rational, logical, and realistic, without any frills and false hopes.

[@Charles-pf7zy]

you can be completely rationally consistent with air tight logical reasoning and still be wrong if the facts you were working with was inaccurate. and I doubt he is 100% rational, no human is perfect, and he is still claiming to this day that the Northern front was "just a feint, bro", despite overwhelming evidence suggesting that the attack was indeed, not a feint. Idk what's his emotional stake to die on such a dumb hill when the rest of his analysis is fine, perhaps he is a perfectionist and wants to feel like his past evaluations on the Russian psyche was 100% correct, rather than say, 90% correct. His credibility is on the line, so he will continue to claim Russia never attempted to capture Kyiv, when we literally saw them try to do so with our own eyes. Sending in your elite VDV in to get slaughtered does not scream *feint* to me. If conquering the Donbas and eastern regions was the only goal, the VDV would have been much more useful deploying to there instead. The Northern front was anything but a token force to pin down the UA, it was meant to be the decapitation strike to restore someone like Yanukovich back to power and thus turning all of Ukraine into a puppet state. And it failed. Now they're trying to hold and annex the territories in the East as a conciliatory participation trophy.

[@vivianoosthuizen8990]

Heard there’s a saying that being a friend of America is more dangerous than being it’s enemy

[@maxthemagition]

The two state solution is the ONLY solution. Zeesus we see one of the wealthiest countries on the planet (Israel) next to one of the poorest areas on the planet (Palestine). One wonders how the State of Israel created in 1948, has become one of the most powerful and wealthy Nations on Earth in such a short period of time (50 years). Where did Israel wealth and weapons come from, one wonders? Also Israel with a population of around 9 million, (about 7 million Jews) is surrounded by Nations with an Arab population of about 450 million. Anybody Israelite with an ounce of brain, would be screeming for peace with their neighbours but instead we see genocide and invasion of Palestine. Giving the Palestinians a State of Palestine is the only way forward. The oppression of the Palestinians cannot continue for much longer and for sure an invasion of Gaza will lead to far more misery for all sides. Give the poor Palestinians a State of Palestine for God's sake.! War is terror.

[@jamesng7320]

Israel's wealth and weapons come about because they financed the US when it colonized North America. Now they receive a yearly dividend of high grade weapons for their investment. Sadly, Israel does not really have any incentive to settle for a two-state solution because it is more powerful. So from their perspective they would like to simply expel the Palestinians or worse...

[@user-bx4px7lj4x]

Both camps have a severe desert death cult religious mindset. Neither will accept a two state solution.

[@svetlanasveta8608]

Because Israel is the 51st US state. Therefore, Israel behaves as brazenly as the United States.

[@teresaaljayyousi8447]

The United States has used Israel for 75 years to be a pseudo military base. The west took a vulnerable group offering then honey and gold to oppress another group of people so that they can blame them for poor outcomes. The west supports Nazi’s in Ukraine, funds Al Queda, and ISIS. We back the worst of the worst. Just add Israel to the list. Israel has better marketing that’s all.

[@maxthemagition]

@@svetlanasveta8608 So powerful forces in the USA are running the show in Israel? Chase the money....$TRILLIONS must have been pimped intio the Israel State in the last 50 years. Nothing wrong with that of course but seeing the dire state of the Palestinians makes one wonder. Palestine should be split into two States for peacful co-existence, but who knows, perhaps there is another plan to make sure that Israel dominates the Middle East. But you know there are obviosly mad hatters in governments of Israel and Palestine areas intent in bombing the hell out of each other. Every attempt by the UN for peace and a two State solution gets vetoed every time by the USA, UK and others...Shame on them.... It's almost as though some powerful organisations wants war in the middle east. Great for the arms industry. Like Ukraine is today.....

[@arrakis8320]

As always Prof. Mearsheimer a clever and profound analist, it's a pleasure to learn something with him. Thanks

[@kenbarber6592]

Try ‘analyst’.

[@eliebouroufail7107]

Voice of Reason

[@229andymon]

The problems for US is, OZ/NZ aside, the nations US wants to "pivot" toward have as much reason to be cautious about them as they do the Chinese. Who nuked Japan, who devastated Vietnam? Not China.

[@Bawdale]

Vietnam is not with the US. Western media misrepresents their position.

[@johndoe7839]

I’d have to disagree. China is an aspiring hegemon and poses a much bigger security threat to countries in east Asia than the United States

[@WiseFool888]

​@@johndoe7839 they arent hegemonic lmao the west needs to stop projecting.

[@229andymon]

@@johndoe7839 Hi, I see that expressed and often taken as received wisdom, but I don't ever see it analysed or sometimes even questioned. What would China as a regional hegemon look like, and why should we fear that? Why must we assume China will want to act negatively toward us and how would they do that? I disagree with Mearscheimer's insistence that Asian nations will have to "pick a side". India for example has made is clear it has no intention of picking a gang to be in and who will stop them riding both horses? What I think we can all be clear on is that the world is changing and it's unlikely the US will be able to continue being the global hegemon. My question is - why assume that to be bad?

[@229andymon]

@@WiseFool888 What does being a hegemon even mean? China is like the proverbial elephant in the room, when you're that size you can't help bumping into things around you. Would that alone make them a hegemon? If we analyse China's actions and foreign policies since emerging as a superpower, need we assume they are intent on enforcing regional power in a way we would (and should) be afraid of and oppose? Where has Chinese hard power been in evidence - and then compare that with US .

[@hardsayings2400]

Excellent sparring match!

[@dklenowski]

nice to hear someone at last correct misinformed Australian commentators.

[@gb3777]

This was great, John is a god

[@sukhsand]

Prof Mersheimer has the depth of knowledge and political wisdom to pin point where the root of the problem lies in Ukraine/Russian and Palestinian/ Israeli conflict.

[@cadicamo8720]

He's completely lost about Ukraine. He's deep into Russia's imperialist propaganda

[@ozstralianna4793]

The road to justice and integrity is the most difficult road off all❤ When freedom smiles from a far distance smile back with love in your heart ❤ When peace seems an unachievable dream believe let it flourish in your mind🌹 As long as genuine people with great minds exist humanity will survive ❤🌹

[@macrosense]

The amount of economic inter-dependence between China and the U.S., as well as China and all of the U.S. Allies or other trading partners in east Asia makes an actual war with China extremely un-pregnancies. However, the most important lesson of the Great Depression is that the U.S. needs massive amounts of Cold War spending, or actual war spending, for its economy to run

[@view1st]

The USA has been doing economically what the Germans under the NSDAP did in Germany: using deficit financing to stimulate the military sector of the economy, which I'm given to understand is called military Keynesianism. Now, however, it's finding that it is increasingly difficult to finance all this militarism by printing fiat dollars backed by nothing but an empty promise, as well as running into opposition. It worked in Germany for a while but then it caused a catastrophic war. The USA has been doing this for 85 years but like Germany it seems that sooner or later you have to pay your own way by making things rather than stealing then from others and living in credit.

[@TrassseB]

H4M4S did expressed it was open to accepting Israel’s existence in 2021

[@waynegore5291]

An objective John, and Center for In dependent-on-US Studies.

[@justmemimi7338]

Damn, you got your photo taken with one of my heroes,, John Mearsheimer. I’m jealous.

[@orangefacedbuddah1776]

werei s his other hand

[@Tvidstein]

Mearsheimer's view are balanced and well informed, good source listeining to and learning from

[@mns8732]

I disagree that Japan will be effective containing China, they have y to much history between them.

[@Dan5482]

Wonderful interview. 👍

[@BobParrIncr]

I was amazed at the ignorance of the host until I heard that he was a presenter on legacy media for ABC radio. Now it makes sense.

[@patriciahoke4722]

Well, he invited Mearsheimer over to his country and to his organization. For that, I give him some credit.

[@golonawailus4312]

The real risk of the US world order is when China provides an alternative plate for every US area of solution: Middle East, Eastern Europe, Africa, South America and East Asia each.

[@reganjo1955]

14:23 Mearsheimer is spot on and the announcer should stop spouting the conventional wisdom that shields Israel from responsibility for the failures of camp David. Read Robert Malley‘s article in the New York review of books about the camp, David failure and the Taba failure and Ariel Cherones walk on the temple mount.

[@rb09rb]

As for Hamas, they would recognise a two-state solution. Written in the new Hamas Charter 2017, article 20. Hamas will never recognise Israel, however - they don't have to, because the representative of the Palestinians, recognised by the UN in 1974 and by Israel in 1993, is the PLO.

[@RubyMaps]

Great discussion! ❤❤

[@DS91284]

Prof John Mearsheimer and I have different opinions on many topics but I can respect the professor because I can follow and understand his reasoning. I may not agree with it but I can understand most of reasoning without bending my mind or performing some incredible mental acrobatic (and without rolling my eyes so hard until I cause a c2/c3 dislocation)😅 I would love to have a tea with him and pick his brains, so to speak.

[@ryanmurphy1662]

What a waste of this mans time trying to get a loyalty pledge for genocide when he just wanted to explain why we are here.

[@prasantadatta5151]

John is pointed to the real geopolitics.

[@JosephStealin]

The best man to explain real politics

[@effa2985]

Such a better take after listening to Fiona Hill. A realist at last.

[@ahmedosama1457]

I LOVE JOHN ..HE IS FAIR AND JUST

[@charleswafula9522]

Great interview. It would have been better if Tom Switzer limited the number of times he's interrupted the veritable John Mearsheimer when he's talking.

[@trekpac2]

Thanks, professor. It is disappointing to see your Australian counterpart is so misinformed.

[@08yallvon]

18:23 Did Sharon tell us he giving up the Gaza? It was highly likely Sarin did what is called divide and concuer. He wanted to have and digest Palestine not in one bog piece but to small piecse

[@user-qi1lz5bn4c]

I think this issue, if allowed to run, will handle three issues. All of which were let to run & build since the 70's. Dont be to hasty for the outcome to be now otherwise much worse most likely within 5 yrs.

[@mdarwhitecube2367]

Wonderful interview thank you

[@thebrickton1947]

Tom knows who butters his bread....'good boy, sit, roll over'.

[@amjadhussain7169]

Great political and social scientist

[@Povhwm11]

If they get rip of Hammas...the next resistance will be worse

[@gregruhland126]

I haven’t gotten to the end of the presentation yet, but I would like to know Dr Mearshimer thoughts on the concept that if instead of using incredible amounts of money on a tunnel system and war against Israel, Hamas or the people of Gaza had instead gradually developed the Gaza strip into a well Functioning economy with industry and tourism and democratic structures I would like to think that “down the road” a 2 state system would have gradually developed. Instead, the Palestinian people have been traumatized by Hamas and other people that live in Quatar but direct an inhumane lifestyle on the Palestinian people.

[@jocelynevkb5889]

How can you create a tourist resort, or any viable economy when you're prisoned off from the world? It took from 10am to 4pm to get through the Israeli checkpoints to Gaza.

[@arnoldstrong5553]

Too bad people like professor Mearsheimer don't have opportunities to share their views in the mainstream media.

[@drbroccoli]

That's probably structural. The mainstream media is so deeply circular in its thinking and reporting, it cannot handle dissenting voices

[@jonathanbowen3640]

Because he says still things like Sevastopol doesn't matter when its part of Ukrainian ability to do shipping. Which does matter on many levels.

[@arnoldstrong5553]

@@jonathanbowen3640 you are not correct. Ukraine has many ports and I don't think Sevastopol has any big value for shipping. Mainly it is a naval base. What i meant is that mainstream media have become pushers of a narrative so only one view is offered. That is not how it used to be, in my opinion. Normally, you could change to a different channel if you didn't like what you heard or felt there is more to the story.

[@jonathanbowen3640]

@@arnoldstrong5553 Sevastopol was the main naval base for the black sea. It was the base from which Russia wanted to dominate Ukrainian shipping lanes. (along with smaller assets such as snake island) Now it cannot do that as easily. And it doesn't. Hence why Ukrainian shipping has continued albeit in reduced numbers. I believe you're too caught up in this automatic rejection of mainstream media thing assuming everything that is obvious is somehow incorrect. You likely have some sort of emotional ideological agenda to somehow think differently for the sake of thinking differently. Contrarianism if were being generous. The problem is most of the time most of the people are right. And its the case on most of the elements on this conflict. You get guys like this Mearsheimer wanting to create a USP, a unique viewpoint such as saying Russian never intended to take Kiev (which is utterly insane) to stand out in the marketplace of ideas, to give himself a position in the market.. And people that listen to this weird stuff want to feel as if their special and have special information. They just wish it like them would be recognised. Will will see in a few years who wins this war. Whether Ukraine gives it territory permanently to Russia. (it wont) and whether Ukraine is armed with capabilities the same as if it were actually in NATO. And in a decade it WILL join NATO just like every other country bar about a few in the region. The accession to NATO is absolutely inevitable. Hopefully this guy will see it before he die, just so he's proven wrong. i do agree with a few things he says but he didn't give any numbers, it was all vague subjective terms (so his positions are more difficult to debunk), this is his modus operandi. Be very cautious of his lack of numbers. I agree though this war will last a long time and go through several periods of cessation of fighting. Its been going on since 2014 anyway Eventually Putin will die or be replaced however and that will guarantee the end of it.

[@avae5343]

@@jonathanbowen3640Sevastopol hasn’t been a part of Ukraine since 2014.

[@lauriealach1072]

Switzer can not grasp the fact that Professor Mearsheimer keeps bouncing him on his head with every question. He keeps expecting Mearsheimer to agree with him on all his right wing suggestions, but Mearsheimer just wont play ball. He is far too educated and knowledgeable, as well as being ultra independent, to be sucked into providing Switzer with the anawers he is fishing for. Swittzer is a tool and tries very hard to demonstrate his "massive" intellect and knowledge on the subject. Great to see Professor John giving this pillock a lesson on geo-politics.

[@TeeTee-zm2re]

😂

[@orangefacedbuddah1776]

great observations.😁😁

[@truth3921]

My Christian heart goes to the Palestinian people ❤️

[@orangefacedbuddah1776]

you are a good soul.

[@DawudTEG]

Does the US need to pivot to Asia? Why? Continuing and adjusting the current level of engagement is probably sufficient

[@syamalghosh2976]

Doubledealing US always talks of "two state solution" while sending wepaons iof increasing lethality to the middle east, thus fulfilling their famous "two bucket" theory. This same theory with a different name was often used by the British to fulfill similar aims in the past between the Arabs and the Turks, and India and Pakistan.

[@philipzaccheus8398]

Informative information for knowledge seekers listening is an important asset for acquiring OWN knowledge of understanding knowledge for NARRATIVES actual happenings for good satisfaction lasting conclusions.

[@itssanti]

When you get familiar with the realists like Mearsheimer you have to overcome some impulses (like the imperialist implications of his theories) , but once you start to understand his theories in a more abstract sense, what he says turn out to be pretty sensible.

[@ericsuarez834]

Only if you are part of the warmongers, his theory always end up on perpetual war

[@TheRealIronMan]

Mearsheimer is great on his analysis about Russia related topics, but whenever he talks about China the supposed realism suddenly runs on fear, emotions, hopes and dreams. The yellow peril is so deeply entrenched into the American psyche even the best intellectuals have fall into the comfort zone of prejudice and bias.

[@keyser021]

Mearsheimer is a shining light of wisdom on Ukraine restraint in hopes of avoiding nuclear war, yet on a dime will say the US should put the full force of the MIC and trillions of US tax $ to sit 100mi off the coast of mainland China to support militarily a government entity not even recognized by the US government itself, on an island that in 1979 Pres. Carter went on tv and told the world belongs to the government in Beijing. How does Mearsheimer justify his wisdom and then turn to crass imperialism in the same breath?

[@Charles-pf7zy]

@@keyser021 racism. old white guy is ok w other old white guys doing old white guy things. but god forbid old chinese guy has ambitions of his own

[@seokjin3000]

I was thinking the same. Yellow Peril. Sinophobia, racism.

[@j.sarnak1391]

Why in the world is Australia as bad as the US?? Do you have billions of AIPAC dollars polluting your politics too??

[@BrettHar123]

No, it's just that Australia has no sovereignty, we are owned by the UK and US.

[@mudelta4068]

@@BrettHar123 Precisely.

[@jayakumarkaarikuzhy4713]

Prof. Mersheimer's theory of Iran and Hezbollah joining the war with Israel without considering the fear of the former that in that eventuality the Israelis will be forced to use their nuclear weapons is difficult to 'swallow'. Given that the Iranian nuclear program is still at childhood stage if you are still thinking that both will take for granted the possible effects of nuking it will be acceptable only to daredevils.

[@user-bw8qv5tn4m]

.john Mearsheimer is a patriot - he has said so many times. So, for him, what is good for the USA is good for the world. He also thinks/looks in the long term which is why he considers China as the big threat to the US's global power/influence. Mearsheimer realises that with smarter long term policies the USA could use the Mafia/oligarchs-run-state in Russia to it's advantage , but to be able to do that the USA has to become more "even-handed" in, for example, Palestine and Ukraine, by playing the role of the "peace-maker" rather than siding with Israel and Ukraine . So, since the US ruling elite are not as smart as Mearsheimer, they have pushed China, Russia, Iran , Venezuela etc . . into a sort of anti US alliance - because they feel that after Russia it will be China's turn and so on. All this predicts an extended global war unleashed on humanity, at least in the near future . .

[@harriemeeuwis978]

'It is possible to form a balancing coalition to counterbalance China ', says John Maersheimer. But does it seem likely that the US will succeed in doing that, given that they make such enormous geopolitical mistakes in their strategy almost always.

[@katong1953]

The US is not interested in merely counterbalancing China. The US wants war, believing that war would solve its ecnoomic problems.

[@cyrneco]

Don't agree with Prof. Mearsheimer in everything of course. But I do admire his intellectual honesty and respect his analysis.

[@Anonymised1]

basically a stalemate

[@kardy12]

What Mearsheimer has said about the building crisis in Ukraine over the past decade or so has been very valuable - unfortunately few people in the US adminsitations have paid attention. What he’s saying about the current Israeli-Hamas conflict is also entirely reasonable. The conflict is at its root a politician one, and as long as Israel continues to oppress and deny rights from 7 million Palestinians, the conflict will persist. Turning Gaza into a ghetto that looks reminiscent of the ghettoes in Eastern Europe some 80 years ago has failed. The only potential solutions to the problem are to establish a state for Palestinians, or to give Palestinians equal rights in Israel. On China, however, it seems his thinking is rooted in models built on largely western behaviour over centuries, where conquest and empires have been the modus operandi. China does not have such a history - it has always been a civilisation that has been more inward looking, and whose relations abroad have been more trade dominated. You can make the argument that China’s claims in the South China Sea represents some aggression, but practically all countries surrounding the South China Sea have made rather expansionist claims those where because of the resources potentially sitting under them. But if the US insists on containing China like it tried to contain Japan, we may well end up in a WW3.

[@gee8883]

Free Tibet Free Uyghuria .