Joseph Tainter on The Dynamics of the Collapse of Human Civilization

[@ricoparadiso]

I like how he repeats the question back to her, its a great conversational tactic to both show engagement and collect thought on the question at hand,

[@johnmcgrath6192]

lol, my experience in France taught me to repeat a person' question and then get verification that I got it. Same for answers. Good habit in a culture fond of arguing.

[@brandonmcmurtrie9389]

He's doing it for the camera, its so they can edit out the questions, and his answers sort of form a coherent monologue in which he sort of frames the answer he is about to give.

[@1234hallllo]

Interview from 2005, so even from before the financial crisis. It is almost a piece of history, but a great lecture on the state of our civilization and its challenges. Would be nice to have a repeat of the interview now, 15 years later in a much more chaotic world.

[@treemedia-n2k]

Good idea!

[@ihateexcessivelylongandpoi4490]

This. Could you do an updated interview please?

[@treemedia-n2k]

yes, working on it, we are just launching our channel, N2K.world and we are building from our legacy content.

[@1234hallllo]

@@treemedia-n2k wonderful

[@treemedia-n2k]

@@1234hallllo you can also subscribe there so you get the earliest posts...

[@jacoblofthus7908]

I'm just relieved to hear someone talking who isn't an evil sociopath.

[@madisonmotta4829]

he has a lot of good points but I have issues with his thinking depopulation is a good strategy and reducing the climate and ecological issues of over consumption of resources to only an individual responsibility issue like maybe if we're gonna depopulate anyone let's depopulate the people space racing to create Martian slave empires first.

[@rickb06]

I hate to break it to you@@madisonmotta4829, but the elite decided many decades ago, likely up to or exceeding a century that a major depopulation agenda was the only way forward in order for the then elite to ensure for their children and their children's children that they would retain power, exorbitant wealth and their perch upon the highest peaks of humanity. The elite determined through their massive 100+ year old think tanks that an artificial ecological crisis was the only way forward that would be virtually guarantee to succeed with the bricks laid down so many decades ago. Make no mistake, an entirely hostile and malignant force of functional evil operates this planet via the elite, they are the worst of humanity in humanities long trials and struggles. The elite knew they couldn't take us on directly head to head, not even their armies could do so, not efficiently or effectively. The only way they can accomplish their goals is to convince enough of us not to conduct normal human life, convince women not to have children and convince men that playing video games all day long is not only ok, it is honorable somehow. Now we have a situation where we are stuck in a vicious and vindictive circle that has essentially halted population growth and expansion, no society that has fallen below the 2.1/child per female level has ever recovered, we are now below that hard limit, and that alone is enough to throw society into a tail spin and that is what you see right now in the world.

[@potpot439]

Pop Reduction is sadly the most effective way in reducing needs for Ressources. The more people = the more ressources required for each person = More pollution& Higher Ore prices to maintain a certian living standard. Hell we are literally starting to run out of concrete already. (Not kidding, Concrete requires a very special kind of sand that comes from Riverbanks and Seaground, Desert sand does not work). The most Humane approach would be to implement Birthregulations. a 2 child Policy of some sorts. Migration limitations etc... Limitations to Commoners Lifestyles. (less travel, Less cars, Less ownership, more sharing, more repairing) Kuba is probably a pretty notable Example for how I could imagine a future might look like in a post collapse Europe.

[@mkkrupp2462]

He’s a brilliant man. And an excellent communicator.

[@barryjones9362]

I can't imagine how anybody could disagree with Tainter's overall thesis. I've been asking his opponents for years to give an example of any change the American government ever made in the interest of resolving any problem, which DIDN'T thereby lead to to creation of at least two newer forms of complexity-increasing problems. So far, no answers. The increase in aggregate complexity gives all appearance of inevitability. I'm old enough to remember a time when it was permissible to drive without insurance. Nowadays you have to have it, and having insurance means an insurance company that more than likely sells your information to the highest bidder, etc, etc.

[@user-qx8dz9ii5z]

Concrete example: this year WA state insurance commissioner ruled by decree (went around the legislature) to force all home and auto insurance companies to pool all credit risk for assessing premiums. This effectively subsidizes the financially irresponsible by forcing the financially disciplined to pay for the riskier policies in the pool. Result: I am now exercising my own form of voluntary collapse through non compliance to purchase policies. By attempting to solve the problem of racial injustices (their perception), they are likely accelerating a form of collapse/failure if more people react as I do.

[@barryjones9362]

@@aversiontoevil good points. I think the mature attitude is to simply recognize that nothing close to utopia will ever be possible for higher mammals, and to therefore do what you can during your own life to be as happy and contented as possible.

[@marcv2648]

I agree with you. I have followed everyone who deals with this topic for years. I think Tainter's model of collapse is the most elegant, parsimonious and general in principle.

[@yvonnechen1507]

I'm thinking about what he means by complex society, and I really do think he means humanity on earth as a whole. Not just one nation. When we look at the totality of unsolvable problems --the inability to stop the polarization of America, the inability to prevent government shutdowns, fake news, the inability to problem solve the pandemic, the inability to prevent failed states like Afghanistan, the global warming he talks about seems to be just the tip of the iceberg. The problems are too complex to solve. But I do think a lot of the complexity has to do with the simplicity of human nature--our inability to sit down at the table and to do so peacefully and intentionally and solve things over words, with compromise.

[@marcv2648]

@@yvonnechen1507 Complex society in Tainter's view has more to do with technology, energy, resources and economy. I can see how all those political issues have an impact though, especially when they affect the economy. Tainter talks about a rapid simplification of society, which equates to a rapid reduction in material well-being.

[@ba1anse]

I envy his calmness, I would be panicking if I studied this topic and came to such conclusion.

[@barrysmith4674]

Why, the only certain thing in life is death.

[@darktagmaster1861]

I just finished, the “the collapse of complex societies” today!

[@user-ud7ko4cq1n]

He has a really beautiful speaking voice. I hope he voices his own audiobooks.

[@yousefkhayeri8789]

Thus spoke Joseph Tainter !

[@serenamorris9701]

😂

[@tribebuddha]

*spake

[@CarloRolle]

The volume is very low. I'm sorry to post a negative comment, but I can't help noticing the waste: organizing an interesting talk with a great scholar, recording it and then publishing it with an inadequate audio! To overcome this problem, I recommend to listen to the video with earphones, because Prof. Tainter's exposition is clear and the subject is very interesting.

[@joostdela]

Audio working fine for me, goes very loud

[@everythingmatters6308]

@@joostdela Audio not fine for me.

[@dloren6183]

Turn it up! Use the force!

[@Jomo326]

Pulling down statues is a fact of war. You pull down your enemies accomplishments 43:50

[@theboogie_monsta]

They're just lumps of stone or metal. Everything is born and ends. Thermodynamics, entropy.

[@handlessuck777]

​@@theboogie_monstaSthu nihilist scum.

[@pascalbercker7487]

Listening to this here in France in 2022 - the pandemic still lingering - living through our 4rth heat wave - with the longest drought we've ever had - and facing an uncertain winter given that we can no longer rely on Russian gas. Even though France has nuclear plants, we are contemplating re-opening some coal plants "temporarily" to make up for the expected energy short-falls this coming winter since we will not likely be able to re-fill our gas reserves. The problems he outined which he thought would become increasingly visible over the 21st century is now becoming much more visible, and we're not even quarter of the way in the 21st century. I'm 65, and thought that the worst to come would be long after I'm gone. It seems that I am very likely wrong.

[@theflamingone8729]

As a(nother) carbon based life form, I greatly appreciate the life releasing work of your coal powered power stations.

[@johnmitchell8925]

I'm 62 in the states, notice I left out united

[@somjrgebn]

In my 30s and already doing my best to simply prepare for where things are clearly heading. Just look in these past year, US is becoming vastly isolated.

[@igweogba6774]

Very interesting take on the Byzantines starting from 43:05. In America, the tax code alone is 70,000 pages long. Complexity leads to stagnation and corruption.

[@BestCosmologist]

"It's difficult to know what our descendants will need." I'd say fruit and nut trees.

[@gunnarkaestle]

... and clean air to breathe.

[@worldmadeofgarbage2494]

@@gunnarkaestle Which, incidentally, is provided by fruit and nut trees.

[@mkkrupp2462]

Fruit and nut trees. Yes, plus chooks/chickens. And a few vegetables. And fresh water. Then you got it made.

[@gunnarkaestle]

@@worldmadeofgarbage2494 I wonder which plants produce more O2: the trees on land or the algae in the oceans.

[@worldmadeofgarbage2494]

@@gunnarkaestle Google says the algae, estimates are somewhat loose, though: 50-85%

[@davidcanatella4279]

Life expectancy is in decline in the U.S. and there are low tech cultures across the world who’s members typically live into their 90’s. Complexity comes with health cost

[@geraldlindner9853]

Ian McHarg's definition of creative fitting (of resources): success is measured in health. So according to his metric, the US is a declining society. soundcloud.com/vanhoesenj/creativefitting text: issuu.com/papress/docs/ian-mcharg

[@Paula-hg5ui]

I think that, in US case, Health Cost is the complexity.

[@elekkr]

Those longevity society s are marginal very far and few in between as exceptions the general rule is that people in low tech societies have a harsh and hard existence with short lifespans nobody really wants to have .

[@davidcanatella4279]

@@elekkr Societies not in civilization are “all “few and far between and marginal at this point but every one of these Ive studied contradict the view you have, which is a very common view so I understand why you have it. For example: In a group of 20 Hadza one was 88 one was 86 and 5 others were in their 70’ and 60’s. They spent no more than 4 hours per day on average doing work and there were no bills , no violence among them and their diet was about 80’% roots nuts and leaves and the rest animals which gave them greater and more balanced nutrient rich for than is common in civilization. The reindeer people eat a much higher percentage of meat proteins, berries and tubers , but trade for bread which has had a small downturn in their overall health but is still greater than the average techno dweller. I’ve lived this life myself for a few years and it was the healthiest part of my life. It’s important to note that the nutrient value of food has declined 50% since 1960 after a drastic increase in intensive industrial farming which operates under the premise of making money not feeding soil

[@denisdaly1708]

@@elekkr Every country in Europe lives longer than the US, even Cuba, even the Lebanon, i kid you not. Inequality kills.

[@justbe1451]

Very intriguing discussion, watched in August 2022! Thank you

[@Swisstriplet]

As far as cutting down trees, don’t we plant new trees to replace the ones cut down?

[@Redeemd]

@Joshua Pearson That's what we've been told. Would that make too much sense for some people to grasp?

[@philipm3173]

Largely no

[@GLORYNEVADASMITH]

“ In valor there is hope “- Tacitus

[@stevemartin4249]

I like Prof. Tainter's organizational and communicative skills, and his multi-disciplinary, big-picture approach - similar to Jared Diamond. And I agree with his values, especially as he is a professor talking about the importance of education for critical thinking, collaborative problem solving. But the institutionally sanctioned safety and privilege of his position also appears to blind him to the salience of the dark side of human nature, particularly how dark-triad personality behavior patterns become more salient in complex hierarchies. I would argue there is more than mere correlation between non-empathetic behavior and those that game the institutions even as they build them ... examples being 'Manufacturing Consent' in the West (Chomsky and Herman), 'Invented Traditions' in the Far East (Vlastos). In this respect, his belief that rationality (and he appears to be focussing on STEM fixes), is a bit like a slightly more worried Steven 'Pangloss' Pinker. The word 'moral' does not appear until 35:00 .... and what little moral outrage comes at 36:00 is very thin and confined to a few politicians, especially when compared to the likes of Chris Hedges, Naomi Klein, Noam Chomsky, Cornel West, Lee Camp, Abby Martin, Jimmy Dore, etc. Though this interview was from over 15 years ago, just as a thought experiment ... how much of this current pandemic is fake, how much is planned, or how much is gamed so as to suck up wealth from bottom up ... put the burden on the working class while CEOs at Big Pharma, GAFA, etc. are raking in healthy profits? Scientists on the corporate nation-state payroll have mortgages to pay, just like their counterparts at DuPont, Monsanto, the military industrial complex, Big Agra, and Big Tobacco ... and are not any more above the temptations of perverse incentives than a grocery store clerk. Just take a look at the average salary of Big Pharma CEOs and the special vaccine laws protecting their corporate bottom lines from laws designed to protect basic human rights. What is missing from this analysis is the moral decay and self-absorbed decadence that is always latent, but emerges unrepentant and every bit as salient as ammoral systemic failure of complex hierarchies. Not once, did he (or to be fair the Western media or here in Japan) mention history's largest worker's strike going on right now in India - and this is clearly a moral problem, not a systemic energy logistics problem. Prof. Tainter has a logical mind, but is rather naive about the conscious inclusion of a stronger moral element to his analysis. I don't disagree with what he says, but am a bit disappointed in what he doesn't say. At the end of the day, he comes across as putting as much weight on worrying about his retirement benefits as on how many are profiting off of an opioid pandemic, the outsourcing of a military empire, the prison for profit system, and profiting from mass unemployment and homelessness.

[@geraldlindner9853]

If you have read Jared, you most probably will also have read Yuval Noah Harari's Sapiens. If you have a "logical mind" like prof. Tainters, you would then know that moral is but a social construct. A figment of our imagination, not a law of nature. A tool with which masses can be managed. Useful, but to paraphrase George Orwell, for some more than others :)

[@borealphoto]

The moral argument is superficial. You don't need evil capitalists for collapse to happen, 8 billion people wanting shoes will do the trick.

[@geraldlindner9853]

@Philosopher King if you are a comfortable member of the system (CEO, professor, etc) it just proves your ability to conform. As we all know, it's absolutely no guarantee for original thinking, usually the opposite. Paradigm shifts nearly always come from people on the outside. So if Steve Martin were to have zero academic papers to his name, all the more reason to listen closely to what he has to say. But that would mean being able to judge a book for its contents, not it's cover. As you obviously like heuristics, I feel deeply sorry for people who need to cling to (confirmation) externalities as titles, status, etc. because they are unable to judge lucidly for themselves.

[@michaels4255]

Although I do not agree with the commenter below that morality is "but a social construct," I also think it is important to point out that even the most moral society imaginable, if it were as dependent as we are on finite resources and especially non-renewable energy resources, would collapse when the production of those resources went into decline, while even a very corrupt society could muddle through for a very long time if its resources were abundant.

[@gabbar51ngh]

Lack of religion in modern day world is easily the answer to that. The contemporary complex world continues to break anything considered sacrosanct to the point nothing is truly sacred. This leads to loss of identity and confusion as people need an anchor point to guide them in life. Beyond that, rest of your comments seems to heavily favour some left-wing Socialist perspective. Sorry but centrally planned economies would fall even faster for a complex society due to inability to adapt. That's Why USSR fell while China liberalised to adapt and now prospers. It's inevitable but governments formed in the events of World war 2 are outdated to combat this tech led era. Need a more flexible market driven government styled similarly to corporates with correct incentives pr governments would eventually collapse too.

[@kstarek1]

Appreciate the insightful analysis!

[@mrbisse1]

This is wonderful in so many ways, but, trying to be concise, I wish you would give even more attention to "minimalism", "degrowth", and "decentralizaion" as well as the arts' ability to change a society's paradigm, e.g. its idea of what a "good life" is. You might also find it useful to look at "Wedge's Paradigm" and "The Decentralist Manifesto" as presented by Frank's School.

[@richardmoeller5351]

I heard somewhere that one of the major contributing factors of Easter Island's trees being cut down was to use them as rollers to move those hideous statues around from where they were carved to the shore and the reason why some of them were knocked over was because, they got angry at the God statues for not supplying them with more trees I guess?

[@philipians1635]

lmao

[@michaels4255]

I once read that it was the rats they imported (stowaways or edible livestock?) that gnawed on the young saplings and slowly destroyed the forests faster than they could grow back. That had not been a problem in the tropics were plants grow faster, but Rapa Nui is in the temperate zone.

[@alexcarter8807]

There are TONS of theories on how the statues were moved. Here's one I just thought up now: The stone was carved into a cylinder which was rolled to the installation site, then stood up, and the carving finished. Then the leftover chips were all put into the hole the cylinder had been taken out of, giving the impression that the statues had been fully carved before being moved. The one statue that was finished while still in the hole was an effort, after the statue-building age, by a frustrated carver or son of a carver, to show they knew how to do it.

[@michaeldeierhoi4096]

There is a video out there of some experiments who created a smaller version (over ten feet tall) of one statues and tied ropes around the neck and 'walked' it forward by pulling on each side alternately. These are ancient stone structures carved by primitive people hundreds of years ago. It's amazing to me that people would the statues hideous?! To each his own.

[@Matthew-p2h]

"hideous"

[@avkvoice7713]

Mr. Tainter's analysis of the Ik people is incorrect and promotes an unfair denouncement of their culture. His assessment is based on Colin Turnbull's controversial research published in 1972 in "The Mountain People". That research was done during an especially difficult famine, not long after they had been forcibly removed from their traditional hunting and farming lands, and forced into an arbitrary and confined region. Mr.Tainter's argument that societal collapse can lead to inhumane conditions is undoubtably correct. However, what the Ik endured, if Mr. Turnbull's ethnography is to be believed, was not so much a collapse as a forced, temporary adaptation. The Ik did not disappear, they are not an atomized society, nor a debased culture. Once the Ik adjusted and recovered, sharing, child care and community cooperation returned; so much so that a member of the Ik people was elected to the Ugandan Parliament in 2016. In archeology as in all the soft sciences we must publish cautiously, double check our sources, and never forget that guesswork will always be a part of the equation.

[@zeroxox777]

What you need for a healthy civilization: 1. Fealty towards truth, i.e. towards an understanding of what actually is. Without this, we can't see dangers and walk right into them. Similarly, without an understanding of what is, we lack insight into the consequences of our own actions. 2. Love. All creatures would know security when all creatures loved all creatures. And we have the capacity to love all creatures: anyone who loves animals can attest to that. But what is it that destroys love? Please refer to number 1. You have to be attentive to those things that undermine love and create conflict, and once you've been attentive, you will discover that it is ego, which is to say that entity, 'the me', that runs on desire and fear, that destroys love. 3. Meditation. This really is part of number 1 and 2. Meditation is being aware of what is, from moment to moment, both within and without. It is only through meditation that an understanding of what is can arrise; it is only through observation, seeing what is, understanding, that love can arise. And with love there is peace. Oh look - Truth, Love, Meditation, Peace. Sound familiar? It is familiar. It relates to that human universal which we have lost, which has become pertrified, meaningless - we call it religion, but we don't know what it is anymore. It certainly isn't a matter of mere belief, but perhaps we have to destroy ourselves in order to see the utter worthlessness of all beliefs, all opinions - those things that prevent us from finding solutions and saving the Earth. That's because the first and final belief, the original sin, is I. When that belief is broken, and the 'I' is silent, who are you? You are not different from God. "Be still and know that I am God"

[@Redeemd]

@Whoever The Person 1. Jesus Christ said, "I am the way, the truth, and the life." John 14:6. Genuine faith in His death, burial, and resurrection on behalf of mankind, to pay for our sins, can bring us back to the truth we lost when we sinned against God. 2. Narcissism does indeed block our choice to love others. 3. The type of meditation one participates in is important. The emptying of one's mind allows all kinds of influences, including evil, even demonic influences to take over a person's mind. Meditating on the word of God, focusing on His truths, brings a person to the place where he is "like a tree planted by the rivers of water, that bringeth forth his fruit in his season; his leaf also shall not wither; and whatsoever he doeth shall prosper."

[@robotic2000k]

I have to reply to this. 1. Not all people like, understand or want to know the truth 2. I can't love the tiger that ate my wife and children while I was away farming 3. 95% of humans are not willing or incapable (or both) of meditation.

[@Redeemd]

@@robotic2000k 1) This may be true, but all people DESERVE to know the truth. God wants each of us to know the truth. Jesus Christ IS the truth (John 14:6). Without the truth being known, mankind is left to its own devices, and will surely perish, not just physical death, but separation from God, and everything that is good, forever. - 2) I pray that this didn't happen to your family. - 3) Meditation on the word of God, the Holy Bible, brings truth, love, and peace to the soul. Salvation, faith in what Jesus did in paying for our sins, and making it personal by trusting Him as Savior, brings everlasting life in heaven to every individual who will believe in Him. 100% of the time.

[@robotic2000k]

@@Redeemd I'm sorry I don't believe in gods or demons.

[@Redeemd]

@@robotic2000k I'm very sorry that you don't. You don't have to find out the hard way how real they are. Jesus Christ gave His life, suffered the punishment for our sins, and paid in full so we could believe on those truths, be forgiven for all our sins and have a home in heaven with Him forever. That beats being separated from Him, and everything that is good, for eternity. I hope you will reconsider His offer.

[@coweatsman]

Nothing lasts forever. That includes civilisations and empires. One thing all empires have in common. All empires believe themselves to be immortal, that this empire, our particular empire is immune from what has happened to all others. And then the empire falls like all its predecessors.

[@robbenvanpersie1562]

Do you think this civilizations will survive another 100 years? I think it might collapse in our lifetime

[@coweatsman]

@@robbenvanpersie1562 You may be right. We have a clusterfuck of factors, like resources, global warming and diminishing returns.

[@Redeemd]

@coweatsman True, in this life, nothing we see or know lasts forever. Only the unseen that God's word refers to is eternal. Genuine faith in Jesus Christ as Lord and Savior will redeem the vilest of sinners, and offers everlasting life. John 3:16.

[@coweatsman]

@@Redeemd Jesus has nothing to do with anything. Death is nothing. When we are dead, we are unconscious to that reality, just like our unawareness of life before birth. As Epicurus said, "Death is nothing and it is irrational to fear nothing. We simply are not. There is, and can not be "ever lasting life". A pie in the sky when we die is a childish fairytale.

[@Redeemd]

@@coweatsman You have exercised your God given free will to reject Jesus Christ, the only Savior. Aren't you glad that God allows people to turn their backs on Him? I hope you realize the error of this decision before you step out into eternity, and find that Epicurus was wrong, and Jesus was right.

[@yousefkhayeri8789]

I came up with this expression in Latin long ago , Cedeo timor. Cedeo : Being in an inferior position Timor, Timet : Fear Which makes it The fear of being in an inferior position. When globalist cabals faced the inevitable fate of 'volunteer collapse' simply just out of the fear of being in this venerable situation they comforted their feared hearts and their people's with delusion of " The great reset" . If thou gaze into the abyss for long the abyss shall gaze back at thee. Frederick Wilhelm Niche They have no choice but volunteer collapse as of its fear they came with the delusional thoughts of "The great reset" ... and there is no abyss darker than fear .

[@yousefkhayeri8789]

@@DrImanFani You Iranian !?

[@Magik1369]

When habitats are destroyed, civilizations not only collapse, species go extinct. We are in the middle of such a horrible collapse of biodiversity, habitat, and the species that depend on that habitat, including the human species. This is driven by the exponential effects of climate change, which is right now a existential threat to all life on Earth. We have maybe 5-10 years to massively turn it around...but it is doubtful we will. People are broken, have lost their connection to Nature and to each other, and have descended to greed, wannabe-ism, selfishness, narcissism, and sociopathy. Humanity is finished and soon.

[@maplenook]

Your comments don’t apply to Rural folks

[@Magik1369]

@@maplenook Rural "folks" are not immune to collapse and death by climate change and over reach. By 2026 there won't be another human being standing on Earth...rural or urban. Rural folks tend to be owned by inherited myths and religions and tend to not be well educated or sufficiently conscious. This obscures perception and leads to false beliefs and false thinking...and your comment is the only proof I need.

[@JulioGarcia-wp2um]

Lies

[@sailingaeolus]

@@maplenook I think so too. He's talking about City Slickers.

[@dbadagna]

"Man has survived hitherto because he was too ignorant to know how to realize his wishes. Now that he can realize them, he must either change them or perish." --William Carlos Williams

[@dankoepp68]

A more recent interview or conversation took place on the Great Simplification potcast by Mr. Nate Hagens in ca 2023. FYI

[@Changeworld408]

We are toast😢

[@didforlove]

roasted as fuck

[@zackandrew5066]

Interesting interview, but in practice what do I do as an individual?

[@mkkrupp2462]

Read up on survivalist sites, but not the right wing gun crazy type ones. Many good books in Amazon. Get water tanks. Get a solar oven and/or an outdoor cooking area or fire pit. Buy lots of matches or a fresnel lens. Buy solar lights, torches that can be powered by rechargeable batteries that can be recharged via solar. Grow a food garden. Invest in long term food storage, whether your own or bought from specialized suppliers. Stock up on meds and painkillers. Develop friendships with like minded trustworthy people in your local community. Think and contemplate what you’d do if you lost electricity etc. Have a gold nugget or high quality spirits to bribe a doctor or dentist to help you out if you have a pain or serious illness. If society really got bad and you were dying in pain, think of a way to end it all quickly. I fear a bad collapse scenario will happen in the next 30 or so years.

[@danpawlowski]

@@mkkrupp2462 got exact the same feeling. Need to learn more about meds and its application. Take care

[@cagneymoreau4216]

I made a video on it before I even watched this. kzbin.info/www/bejne/lYPNmJyYbsaAldE

[@mkkrupp2462]

@@danpawlowski You too! 😀

[@vintage_violet]

Create community! Individuals won't survive on their own. I'd love to buy an old ghost town with like minded folk and share tasks, food etc. That sort of thing maybe! 🤷‍♀️

[@silverguru]

Thank you Sir-

[@ahmedkshnew5338]

Informal systems is part of complexity, more complex more cost

[@aek12]

We will all die, he is afraid to say that. We are on the verge of extinction.

[@gunnarkaestle]

We all will die, not matter if there is a collapse or a steady state.

[@mkkrupp2462]

That would be good for other species.

[@gunnarkaestle]

@@mkkrupp2462 I don't think there is a big difference of species A and B. Some will go faster than the other into extinction. But individually, all carbohydrate powered, protein controlled units will die.

[@nataliaturner4845]

I'm glad he didn't. Being that cynical about the situation is never going to produce a solution.

[@gunnarkaestle]

@@nataliaturner4845 Here is an article about the peak oil movement: Peak oil, 20 years later: Failed prediction or useful insight? www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629618303207 The theory is that the attention to the topic did not fade away because the oil price did not jump to triple digit oilprices again, but because the gloomy message without offering an easy solution. "This view easily leads to a “doomerish” vision of the future and the peak oil movement tended to regard peak oil as an apocalyptic watershed for humankind, an interpretation surely not based on anything that the model in itself could support."

[@kirkha100]

“So many, who must individually accept the cost of the transition, are unaware that it’s coming.” …part of a response to the question regarding the quality of a transition from fossil fuels. “will it be graceful?” I really like this presentation, but when considering the initial moments of any change I am mindful of a festering sense of resentment born out of income inequality, a challenged sense of entitlement and it’s accompanying complacency, a growing disillusionment fed by media images and marketing of a beautiful life fewer and fewer people will experience, the exhaustion of the “low hanging fruit” energy sources and resources(poor EROI) and overpopulation/consumption and I very strongly feel- the transition will be far from graceful. I’m not a far reich’ anti-vax ammo-sexual racist flatearth antiscience long gun stroking, Nazi prepper longing for the simplicity of the ante-bellum plantation. I’m thinking our future has already been poisoned by a well earned mistrust of collectivist solutions- by the incompetence and corruption of those who we laughably call our leaders. I love the intelligence I see here. But all I see is darkness.

[@yousefkhayeri8789]

Those spoke Joseph Tainter !

[@coweatsman]

Renewable energy can only work if a) we accept a lower standard of living and b) the economy can never grow. Unfortunately no governments are going to accept this and neither are flat earth economists but we go there or we go to "endless war" in fighting the laws of thermodynamics themselves in a misplaced delusion of civilisational immortality of the way we do things now. Not even environ,mentalists appreciate the limits to growth, hoping that with a different mix of energy sources we can continue BAU. This is a dangerous optimism which will end in xenophobia, paranoia, scape goating, hissy fits by spoilt brats with nuclear weapons.

[@maplenook]

Option c. Much smaller population.

[@DoNotPutinMouth945]

Amazing.

[@Janamejayan5]

Sir, can you ponder on Sanathana Dharma as a solution? Please have a free mind to examine this aspect.

[@gabbar51ngh]

It's not a solution. Answer is taxpayer's republic.

[@sifridbassoon]

how do you spell the name of the African group he mentioned? "ik?" Ikt?" Ick?"

[@treemedia-n2k]

Ik: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ik_people

[@kimwelch4652]

Our energy usage curve is currently exponential so all the new sources of energy we are currently developing are just backfilling the fossil fuels that cannot quite keep up.

[@denisdaly1708]

i keep meeting you on KZbin Kim. Hope you are well my sustainable friend

[@janklaas6885]

18:25 22:55 next century running out of oil 25:40 global warming 29:40 📢 thats our fault 32:33 climate change/energy 35:00 39:00 📢📢📢

[@Redeemd]

@Jan Klaas Perhaps our leaders should step up their efforts (?) to develop the 'needed' clean, green energy they tout, while filling the skies with the fumes from their fossil-driven jets, and their luxurious limousines, and lecturing us on cooking out over our gas grills. Anyone who has been to Oz and gotten a brain can see that they're not in this for our good. The love of money truly is the root of all kinds of evil.

[@janklaas6885]

@@Redeemd whats Oz ?

[@Redeemd]

@@janklaas6885 In 'The Wizard of Oz' movie, the Scarecrow decides to travel to the land of Oz with Dorothy, so he can ask the wizard for a brain.

[@pinosantilli3371]

dang the volume is too low

[@Nottherebutthere]

Don't understand why he says we can't know what kind of Earth future people will need. Clearly, an Earth devoid of clean and abundant resources leaves no room for ANY choices.

[@Larkinchance]

I felt a lot better when I gave up hope...

[@johnmcgrath6192]

modern nuclear power plants are safe, self-disposing of waste, aND they come in many sizes, including in sizes suitable for a small grpoup of hoses or a commercial block or aa hospital, school, etc. Freeing many people from a central collapse or the collapse of the grid.

[@sailingaeolus]

You are scaring the sheep. They have been trained to fear that, much like sheep and the single wire electric fence.

[@jamesmorton7881]

Hundreds of years of sustainable back in Hamurabi's day, 2600BC. Forgiveness of debt in times of disaster. Michael Hudson's book is very readable

[@iananderson8288]

13:30

[@mtn1793]

If we had followed that early promise of nuclear energy as a source too cheap to meter we would be covered today and into the future. As it is our civilization is in terrible danger of collapse. Socialized nuclear is still our best bet to survive.

[@ThatKeyserSoze]

44:32 Did anyone else hear They Might Be Giants at this point? No? Just me then...

[@kevonz1]

As part of my studies about the collapse of previous civilisations I have found Dr Tainter's work fascinating. I will invite him to be our guest on Nature Bats Last on PRN.FM He's the perfect guest for our show in many respects ( Hopium notwithstanding). This presentation was recorded in 2005, it will be fascinating to know how he feels about 'renewables' now and how 450 nuclear power station melt downs and 1200 spent fuel pool fires will fit into his analysis. kevinhester.live/2017/12/07/how-far-over-the-climate-precipice-are-we/

[@greeleymiklashek6774]

Read "Stress R Us" as a free PDF on the net or PB at Amazon Books. Population density stress is the cause of population collapses. The key to understanding this phenomenon can be found in the study of the the 70+ years of animal crowding researches, which is presented in "Stress R Us".

[@jackreacher6758]

30:00 If only we had “education “ and not indoctrination. He wants people to think of the future and far away places and in school they are trying to figure out how many genders there are and teaching critical race theory

[@muche6321]

Actually, CRT is about thinking about history (so still long-term time-wise) and far away places (class- and race-wise, as opposed to distance-wise).

[@antipanglossian]

THIS IS LITERALLY NOT A THING THAT IS BEING TAUGHT IN SCHOOLS omg

[@jimmyf9545]

Jack, you and your inane, petty political ranting on subjects that have nothing to do with this talk, are the problem here, leading blindly into a cauldron of suffering. I hope your festering hate for people different than you consumes your thoughts as the world around you collapses.

[@mimosa27]

Unintentional ASMR

[@johnmitchell8925]

Can't hear

[@dv3255]

I don’t know about you, but I’m ready for the forever purge

[@alexcarter8807]

Not scheduled until 2024 but we'll see what happens in 2022.

[@maplenook]

You might be swept by it

[@dunk_law]

Life expectancy is dictated by availability of quality nutrition.

[@kerrybarnes2002]

As far as I know, so far there has been no significant decline in life expectancy following a collapse of civilization. For example, average life expectancy in medieval Europe was till one's '30s and '40s and the same was the case during the classical Roman period. Diseases like cholera and the bubonic plague were common in medieval Europe and again the same was the case in the classical Roman period.

[@dunk_law]

@@kerrybarnes2002 www.bbc.com/future/article/20181002-how-long-did-ancient-people-live-life-span-versus-longevity

[@dunk_law]

@@kerrybarnes2002 academic.oup.com/cid/article/46/10/1582/294025

[@Captain_Nemo-y7q]

Why does there have to be a disembodied voice out of sight of the camera?

[@treemedia-n2k]

This is a full length interview of material that was put into The 11th Hour. We did not envision the director being recorded or on camera.

[@SkyRiver1]

We are "subsidized" by fossil fuels, but fossil fuels were subsidized by the sun. If you are going to give the impression of going to primary causes go all the way.

[@jayurbexexploring4293]

He is describing are society,at some point are society will collapse.

[@bneary234]

Playing out in real life right now 😮

[@JulioGarcia-wp2um]

No

[@HouseJawn]

Horrible audio, so quiet! 🙉

[@troubleabout5137]

But it wasn't the Dark Ages in England when Rome left they actually had quite a good culture happening there as new discoveries are showing

[@HAPPY-kv1fs]

Colonization never seems to be fair

[@ricbrunner3880]

We are going to pay the price for gas and oil on the backside. And we will pay dearly.

[@sailingaeolus]

Care to call the peak oil date? Did we already blow by it?

[@USA50_]

What are his opinions about the Corona virus pandemic?

[@stevenicoletti3498]

The comments about the Ik people have been called into question.

[@munyansebastien7127]

Indeed! Even if we would accept Turnbull comments as factual, and not based on isolated incidents, the Iks were in a state of extreme famine at the time. The acts reported do not represent their culture more than, say, the Donner party's mistrust and cannibalism represent American culture. More recent observers attest that the Iks are generally a kind and generous people.

[@guinevere4365]

The world has changed so much since 2011 when this interview took place. I am optimistic we will survive, transform and thrive. Please interview him now in 2023. All the global warming lies for instance were manufactured. We are emerging from being a prison planet. Have love and hope everyone!!❤

[@robinwiese3357]

Oh I would have killed to have him as an educator in college ...

[@FlameofDemocracy]

The hydrogen economy is based on electricity, i.e. plasma. Plasma is far more energy dense and flexible. Further, fossil fuels see their hydrogen content burned, with carbon being sent aloft. Just get hydrogen directly, without the collateral damage.

[@karenreddy]

ChatGPT in human form. Just as intelligent and flawed. Blind to how close we are to fusion, to the massive risk/reward advantages of fission, and to the massive economic output of AI technologies over the next decade. Yes the ride will be bumpy, but if we survive the existential risk the benefits are unimaginable.

[@lucian5304]

Way to many people packed in these tiny cities..how can the economy provide work for everyone on earth ..it can't ..simply not enough jobs..it will become harder to hqave work in the future..the mass will be left behind to starve..its already happening..looking at Los angeles .thousands sleeping on the sidewalks ..and u see rich people ride by them in their Mercedes and they don't even acknowledge this poverty...its like it doesn't even exist to them or they are just so numb to it ..its the new normal to just pass by

[@Changeworld408]

People are people and only think and feel for themselves 😢

[@sharonvass8700]

Not everything is about money

[@Joke9972]

'ik' 'me' or 'I' in Dutch.

[@alexvarsany9453]

??????

[@thomaskolkman956]

@@alexvarsany9453 6:57 =>

[@alexvarsany9453]

@@thomaskolkman956 Thank you. I've missed that.

[@gitanoespana7694]

20k views...most people are just not concerned... except with their own selfish longing.

[@ivrz]

We are the first generations in history to enjoy the dubious privilege of having the leisure to worry about the distant future. This plagues us with a anxiety not just for our own and our families lives, but for the lives of all future humanity. We didn't choose any of this. Yet we are told we are responsible. The grandiose narcissistic ego like to see itself in this position, saving humanity. The visionary of future destruction is then entitled to command the ignorant masses for their own good. Repent and be saved

[@theboogie_monsta]

Average takes 250 years to collapse. That's around 1770. Wasn't some declaration being signed around then?

[@oscargiovanniruiz8344]

I hope for a global society with out exploitation.

[@MrSvenovitch]

you're so silly it's baffling

[@EdirtySicks]

OGRUIZ that is not possible. You see humans have this thing called free will. And bad humans will ALWAYS exist.

[@awesomenice742]

Human nature does not allow that to happen

[@gabbar51ngh]

Need to abolish taxation then.

[@kiedranFan2035]

It has been said that the privileged won't give anything up before they consider liquidating competitors. That doesn't look good for places like Bangladesh. The migration simply would be forbidden no matter the effect I predict

[@jamesallison9662]

He jumps the shark at 9:30

[@vincentkosik403]

I'm hopeful too...pushing up daisies before these collisions collide

[@rubear8245]

You can hear a bouble audio guve way. Hes reading a script or something

[@treemedia-n2k]

This was recorded over 15 years ago when there was no streaming or KZbin, we uploaded these for everyone's interest and no he was not reading a script.

[@m3po22]

39:10 Solar improvements FTW

[@jasjay873]

Honestly I really want him to do an interview in today's time and discuss the concepts created by transhumanists and how it may/may not contribute to complex societal collapse.

[@treemedia-n2k]

we are working on a new interview stay tuned!

[@jasjay873]

@@treemedia-n2k thank you.

[@OlStinky1]

He somewhat recently did an interview on The Great Simplification

[@jasjay873]

@@OlStinky1 cool ill check it out. thanks.

[@BEyezonFire]

This man said alot without actually saying it. He is very clever. If you ever have the chance to interview him again, please ask him about the transgender mania and its effects on our previous societies. I would love to hear what an articulate speaker like himself would say to that. Im concerned about it.

[@maplenook]

Look at Rome. It is a signpost.

[@Redeemd]

@@maplenook Yes, I believe Rome fell largely due to sexual perversion.

[@muche6321]

@@Redeemd correlation =/= causation

[@Redeemd]

@@muche6321 Explain please.

[@Daimo83]

Much better than Jared Diamond. We should have moved into space to keep expanding, instead of spending 30 years on decadence and forever war.

[@janklaas6885]

where in space exactly ❓

[@ZadakLeader]

Never was truer

[@liveyourbestlifeguide]

This.

[@maneatingseas]

There is a singular human civilisation and cultures that contribute to it. That’s the definition of organised human presence on this rock. And even a professor cannot get passed this semantic hole. The talk becomes increasingly fractured.

[@MrSvenovitch]

We're as good as gone. Thankfully unlike my parents and my sister I did not breed.

[@janklaas6885]

me neither

[@coimbralaw]

Too late. Your parents already had you. You should’ve been @borted.

[@Jimmy-el2gh]

With that attitude we are also glad you didn't breed😃

[@NegativeCarnivore]

Cringe

[@richardkut3976]

Living is for the Strong!

[@gautingmusik9561]

ok

[@truthcerum1222]

Healthcare collapsing as we speak. Buckle up! It’s happening!

[@didforlove]

yup

[@HAPPY-kv1fs]

Cheer up and take the Zombie Juice Jab. . .

[@CharlesBrown-xq5ug]

Nature may have given everyone a wonderful energy supply that was beyond the imagination of Victorian England as they became enthralled by going beyond nature as they industrialized and used steam engines, dynamos, and electric motors. They chose the second law of thermodymamics, which is a drain towards tepid stagnation and death without proof, instead of full realization of the well supported finding, even then, that energy can change form but not be created or destroyed. It may be possible to borrow thermal energy from our planetary air, water, or ground, convert it to electricity, and use the electricity as we wish and then return the thermal consequences of this use to the planet. Refrigerators and air conditioners in this system would produce electricity in exact equivalence to the heat they absorb. From the above point of view the need for energy from fuel and the ultimate thermal output are mutually superfluous. The thermal output is 1) second law unavailability 2) other thermal losses in friction or wire loss 3) the desired production of heat and 4) thermal aftereffects of the desired use of the electricity other than heat. Here is a thought experiment device that hypothetically creates self powered thermal diversification. The thought experiment device is impractical but easy to visualize and check for mechanical workability. Its parts are large enough to act as everyday mechanisms but small enough to work well with the nanometer scale thermal motions of gas molecules. Sketch made with keyboard characters: COLD ROOM ())--:WALL:-->> HOT ROOM Key ()) = Paddlewheel. -- = Axle. (Continuous from end to end) : : = Axle tunnel going through a wall. >> = Lumped friction element Please visualize two roome full of air separated by a very thin wall that allows the rooms to hold their heat independently with minor leakage through the wall. The wall is thin to delicately support billions of separate nanometer scale short axles running straight through loosely enough to rotate freely but not leak very much heat so the rooms can hold separate temperatures. On the left side, a very small paddlewheel is mounted at the left end of each axle. On the right side, lumped friction elements are mounted stationary in place on the wall, one for each axle, for the right end of each axle to run through. The lumped friction elements convert the mechanical rotation of their axle into heat. The lumped friction elements do not impart Brownian motion to their axle. Brownian motion (a nanometer scale effect) turns the paddlewheels at random speeds randomly clockwise or counterclockwise. This random rotation is turned into heat by the lumped friction elements. The committed, linked, and functional roles of the walls, paddlewheels, axles, and lumped friction elements in differnt places should systemically produce a divergence in the thermal energy in the two rooms without adding external energy. Another hypothetical device is the "nanometer scale aggregate" derivitive of Nicola Tesla's "vavular conduit" a fluidic device (Tesla valve) where, other than secondary structual erosion, only the fluid inside moves. The structure directly, as a consiquence of its shape, and without added intervention, imposes the property that fluid flow is somewhat one way because flow restricting turbulence is consequently generated when the fluid attempts to move in the reverse direction. This hypothetically, can be scaled down to rectify the Brownian thermal motion of the fluid. The effect is very small so billions of conduits must be collectively oriented the same way to aggregate useful power. Here is a hypothetical practical method with the working name thermary: The thermary mainly consists of two electrodes closely face to face (~1 micrometer) in a vacuum wired to an external electrical load. The face of the [Emitter] electrode is covered with a uniform array of LaB6 tipped small diameter carbon nanotubes grown straight out. The face of the [Absorber] electrode is covered with small scale graphine flake char. [Rice U 2014] Thermal energy mobilized unattached electrons will tend to free themselves outward from the emitter tips and drift at ~1 million meters / second @ 25 millivolts (thermal electron energy @ 20 C) to the absorber which tends to collect them. A negative charge accumulates on the absorber. This repels oncoming electrons slowing their forward drift, cooling them. The absorber electrode charge is simultaneously the repelling cooling and the external electrical load voltage. The drift current and external wire route current are the same. The DC electrical power consumed by the electrical load depends on the load resistance. Thermal energy absorption always equals the electrical yield. Wire resistance is a practical loss not a true loss so lt is overcome by added thermary output. The extra cooling balances the heat given off by the wire loss. The performance of the device is expected to be modest in the beginning but improve rapidly. Even early devices are expected to last a long time. There is little place for obsolence if the first installed thermary works adequately. They will withstand being short circuited indefinately up to an electromigration limit. I am not interested in any more patents. I have enough of a reputation with patent us3890161A Diode Array, which refrigerates by cycling heat into electricity via rectified and aggregated Johnson noise. The exclusionary use of patents breaks up synergistic benefits. Public participation is needed for wide scientific, general, and spiritual discourse, efficient use and efficient further development. Wide exposure to the public renders invention concepts unpatentable. Other teams have built low power prototypes of their concepts too so break-even perpetual motion is likely to emerge somewhere. Cell phones wouldn't die or need power cords or batteries or become hot. They would cool when transmitting radio signal power. Frozen food storage would be reliable and free or value positive. That means homes and markets would have independent power to preserve food. Vehicles wouldn't need fuel or fueling stops. Elevators would be very reliable with independent power. Water and sewage pumps may be placed anywhere. Nomads could raise their material supports item by item carefully and groups of people could modify their settlements with great technical flexibility. Zone refining would involve little net power. Reducing Bauxite to Aluminum, Rutile to Titanium, and Magnetite to Iron, would have a net cooling effect. With enough cheap power H2O and CO2 levels in the biosphere could be modified. There should be a unitary agency to look after our planetary concerns. Aloha Charles M Brown lll Kauai Hawaii

[@bpath60]

would have been nice if this was not so eurocentric> He fails to mention Indus Valley civilization collapse contrast with long continuation of Chinese civilization

[@bpath60]

@borgilskye Thank you

[@martynhaggerty2294]

Didn't foresee the rapid improvements in renewables... we CAN make it

[@francisco-mv1oy]

birth control

[@dv3255]

Start building your end of the world raider teams now before you become someone’s lunch...long pork tastes good

[@maplenook]

2008 was wake up call and few woke up

[@jamesmorton7881]

compound interest Pendejo. debt growing faster than income feudalism master / slaves employer / employee rich / poor 1% / 99% like today

[@didforlove]

thats not true

[@rideforever]

God or Nothing .... human beings who live a holy liife emit energy. This is the answer. You must create energy and emit energy yourself. Consumers? Material perception does not comprehend the value and functioning of honest creative people. Unless you see the value in the labour love and ingenuity of people .... unless you see that this creates energy - yes literally, if you don't see that you live in fear of extinction because you don't understand your value. That is what is meant by Holy. To see what is actually happening beyond coarse materalism. This man is wonderfully lucid, however his ideas are only of which technology outside ourselves we should make. He sees no value and has no interest in human beings, only in machines outside of ourselves. Therefore he will fail. The question is not how to make machines. The question is how to make ourselves such that we are renewable, in other words that we create life and light. If not we are simply leeches in a world of machines, that is the implication of the split vision that this man is limited to.

[@grandconjunct]

good job soundman , not