July 2050 weather forecast based on UK Climate Projections

[@kierandallas4206]

Presenter hasn't aged at all! I would love to look like him when I'm 60. :)

[@MaryJane-op6qc]

Is he really 60? He looks about 30!

[@kierandallas4206]

@@MaryJane-op6qc He probably is in his 30s now. But not in July 2050 he won't.

[@healingandgrowth-infp4677]

Same. We'll be the vulnerable ale group that will probably die due to the heatwave.

[@neilburns8869]

I'm afraid that he has used a TARDIS to travel there from the year 2022. TARDIS stands for Time And Relative Dimension In Space, as any self-respecting Doctor Who fanatic will tell you.😜

[@Admit-Audacity]

Must be keto diet 😂😂😂

[@nedimsladic]

“Thankfully, it is not a real forecast.” Not only this scenario is plausible with RCP2.6 and especially RCP4.5, but it is also almost equal to the one the UK expects this weekend and at the very beginning of next week! And more shockingly even dates are matching. Dear Brits, stay safe during this incessant heat!

[@-.M.--]

Yep we're dying indeed

[@-.M.--]

@@stephenrichards5386 what does it mean

[@BlackRose-vi2yg]

Got to 40 this year. So God knows what it will be like in 2050

[@rowp6536]

We didnt have to wait until 2050 to reach 40oC+ ....July 2022....☹

[@Vivek-zw3ex]

This shows how actual climate change is so much worse than our projections. We are already having these 40+ temperatures today and tomorrow in much of England, 28 years ahead of schedule. This is a climate emergency, and lack of action to prevent it from worsening is a crime against humanity.

[@kirkykirkle]

40c widely across England and 35 widely across the British Isles in July 2022. Driest 8 month period since 1911 and average temperatures reached 30c in 2022 for the first time ever. Wildfires occurred across England. This forecast could have been for July 2022🔥 May and June 2022 were cooler than usual though.

[@satyris410]

Oh my word it was frightfully warm wasn't it. I remember having to walk to the pharmacy in July and having to throw water on my face from my bottle just to stay sane.

[@l4ver_al3x]

The fact that this really shows that London had hit the 40° mark in july 2022 scares me

[@MebXVII]

It would be interesting for you to do a forecast for today based on climate projections from 30 years ago so we can see how accurate/inaccurate these models actually are.

[@spillarge]

Precisely what is needed to show everybody what muppets they are.

[@danellis-jones1591]

Models are constantly backwards tested. So they put in weather from decades ago to predict current or recent weather, so it's calibrated and tested. Many models are very close to current weather and climate

[@squiblebib1353]

@@spillarge my guy, the technology we had back then was way worse compared to now, nowadays with the satellite technology we have, scientists can more easily predict the climate.

[@dotdashdotdash]

@@squiblebib1353 I read recently that all the satellite data from 1991 to 2001 was collated and it was discovered that the global temperature fell by 0.1 Celsius in that period.

[@reececollison5101]

@@squiblebib1353 in which case it makes you question how accurate were thermometers back in those days?! How do we know there wasn’t a 40°C day back in summer 1976 if the equipment wasn’t as accurate as it is today? Im by no means some conspiracy theorist or denier but these things HAVE to be questioned.

[@hayleyfowler6194]

I think it would have been really interesting to have shown how the heatwave would likely break - with severe thunderstorms. This heat and rain is projected for the future by convection-permitting models and would make this story even more real. You could do the same for the winter with large storm events, wide-spread flooding etc. It would also be nice at the end to talk about the changes to extreme temperatures rather than the mean as I always think the message gets a bit lost there - it's about the persistence and frequency of these extremes (not the average change). But it's a great and realistic narrative about the future.

[@leeblanche4983]

surely all that rain would rinse CO2 from the atmosphere

[@spillarge]

@@leeblanche4983 What???

[@leeblanche4983]

How do you think the atmospheric CO2 gets in to the oceans, soda stream?

[@sam9708]

The message to who though? Nobody who watches this can make a difference, it’s the big company’s. We are doomed and nothing will stop this now

[@win86wintfir33]

Lerwick still cant get above 20 degrees 💀

[@nigelclifford8405]

Lerwick is on a small island over 100 miles (160km) north of the British mainland surrounded by the Atlantic on one side and the Norwegian Sea to the other end. Water bodies have a very high capacity which means it takes a long time to warm a small part of ocean compared to the same amount of land therefore remain far cooler so this affects an island's weather in the middle of the ocean far away from large landmasses

[@Michael.OJackson]

Maybe a 50 year forcast is pushing it considering a 24 hour forcast is rarely correct

[@michaelespeland]

These people are not magicians. No one can get forecasts accurate

[@Michael.OJackson]

@@michaelespeland why are you watching year old forcasts for on a Saturday night?

[@michaelespeland]

@@Michael.OJackson Because I have no life. Why are you in here replying?

[@Michael.OJackson]

@@michaelespeland im at work

[@michaelespeland]

@@Michael.OJackson Well, good for you

[@dannygriffiths7952]

We hit 40C in 2022 and reports are saying 2023 will be hotter. So by 2050 it will be much hotter then this forecast suggests.

[@Ross_Milton]

56 year old me will be feeling the heat

[@llpalm08]

I bet 27 year old you is now feeling the heat

[@Ross_Milton]

@@llpalm08Oh yes sleeping tonight will be hard

[@paulkenney700]

don't worry they can't get next week right lol

[@arnoldhills1865]

Exactly, maybe they should concentrate on being able to accurately forecast the next 30 hours before speculating on the 30 years from now and telling us we’re all doomed....🙄

[@drstock1988]

😠😠Wrong!!

[@drstock1988]

Great forecast!

[@michaelespeland]

Classic ignorant comment. Its hard to project the future

[@jonathanberry8498]

It's no joke. I've now had to cancel my summer holiday in 2050.

[@michaelespeland]

This is almost identical to how the forecast is for monday and tuesday...even the weather pattern is similar...

[@galactic_nerd-sk4747]

Well... 2022 is the new 2050

[@matthewhackett8735]

I remember these kind of stories growing up in the late 80s and the predictions never came off

[@innocentferret2365]

It's a realistic-ish extreme. So in times out of heatwaves i.e 95% of the summer, it would probably be 21-25C rather than the 18-22C that we have now.

[@cianmcguire5647]

The UK has continuously broken temperature records for the last few years with greater intensity. How is that not clicking? 37 degrees plus is normal now.

[@eddielasowsky7777]

@@cianmcguire5647 An anomaly is not a trend.

[@cianmcguire5647]

@@eddielasowsky7777 A trend is a trend: www.google.ie/amp/s/climate.nasa.gov/evidence.amp ;and ignorance is bliss.

[@capybara2450]

@@cianmcguire5647 37c is not normal now, that’s only happened in isolated spots in the south east, never in the West Midlands let alone the north. You don’t hear of the cold records that get broken, yet they happen

[@cryoraptora303tm2]

Climate change is happening even faster than what current estimates predict: We reached 40C 30 years ahead of schedule. We'll more than likely reach it again in the next couple of years, and honestly, by 2050, I don't see any way how 43C won't have been reached several times. Who knows what the record will be by then. I fear that a 40C high and 30+C for weeks on end in July or August will be the norm rather than the exception by 2050. Summer 2022 was a glimpse into what a normal, perhaps even mild British summer looks like in 2050. Our land is going to go up in flames while our leaders sit back and do nothing about it. Stuff your poxy carbon neutral by 2050, it's too late for that now, it's already happening.

[@jrd1982]

Who knew that in 2022 we reach 40.3c during the day and a min of 26c at night....so much for weather forecast.

[@PhilipMurphy8Extra]

Is this 2050 or this week looking at UK temperatures right now?

[@frankov2000]

2050?? Here we are, 2022, with temperatures of 40c. ???

[@lukealvarez3744]

This is more accurate for 2022 XD

[@SamsVlogstrainsmore]

Predicting July 2022 weather 22 months in advance 😳

[@JayAlmeida.]

Oh dear we may be close to these temperatures next Monday.

[@arnolddavies6734]

We already experience these temperatures in Australia every summer. Cannot imagine what it will be by 2050.

[@sebastianliggieri8411]

It says that in 15 to 20 years. Cities like Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide Summers could hit top temperatures of 50°C

[@stevangelical7052]

With the prediction of the El nino event returning in December 2022, could be sooner than expected.

[@vbeezie8371]

Scary because it’s actually our weather in the uk this past two weeks

[@bassetts1899]

July 2050? More like July 2022. Forecast 40 degrees in London. But at least Scotland is still safe.... for now.

[@EdgwareBubbles]

Hopefully this is a guess as said. Climate predictions are 5° above what they are today, so 35° is the maximum we could expect here.

[@photon2724]

it doesn't work like that mate. an increase of just 1 Celcius can mean 5 to 10 Celcius increase in your location. imagine addition of 5 Celcius globally....And it's not just the heat u gotta worry about. We'll have mass flooding and low food/water stock just to name a few.

[@adam6543]

@@photon2724 it doesn't work like that, Stephanie is right, buy the sounds of it, where she lives, the maximum temperature they have ever recorded in a heat wave is 30C. So in 2050 the maximum would be 35C. Not 40C.

[@Microtherion]

Nope. We already *had* temperatures approaching 40 C, in 2019. (And higher in northern France). It's senseless to say 'we couldn't get anything higher than 35' when we already did! 38.7 C in Cambridge. (29/07/2019). When we talk about increases, we're talking about global *averages*, not local highs, precisely as Photon said. We can't say 'It'll never go above X'. It just does (and if we're talking about 35, it already has). It's the climate (physics), not some international treaty...

[@wheels5894]

Thank you for making the effect of climate change on our local weather. The forecast ought to be shocking enough to make people really think about climate change - I hope.

[@mechellekingman7833]

It's been hotter in the past .

[@CHANNELNOLONGERINUSE567]

@@mechellekingman7833 it don't go up that much in 30 years tho. It takes 1000s. You are the problem

[@movinbutnotshakin]

@@mechellekingman7833 This statement will always be true, even after climate change extinguishes 99.9% of life on earth.

[@functionatthejunction]

This is every summer in the West Coast and PNW in the US for the past decade pretty much.

[@NormandeSprow]

2050? More like 2022 😑😞

[@leedaniels1468]

It's Thursday the 19th April 2023 and the Met Office has just said they are not sure of this Saturday's weather. 😅😅

[@h.b.p1197]

They hardly can predict the next day weather with enough accuracy let alone predict the weather for 2050. How many times meteorologists predicted sunny day and we went down to the beach just to have our trip ruined by rain? 😂😂😂Just saying 😌

[@gamers-xh3uc]

will i have seen that every summer in the uk has being warmer than the last so i think this is plausible

[@DifferentSaturner]

What if, it's not a joke? See you in 2050! I'll be 90 then!! (Mon 01 Mar2021 19h07)

[@tommyknight8afc826]

What about the winter temperatures in 2050

[@AshOrAshes_]

The fact that it was like 40 degrees a few months ago.

[@HasanAli-eu1tf]

Will this summer be really hot?

[@rodneyquinn2528]

When 2050 hits ill be 53 and uks looking like paradise 😍

[@haroldinho9930]

Careful what you wish for, no white christmases, lots of thunderstorms and death level heat

[@milsyvideos3336]

@@haroldinho9930 Good

[@haroldinho9930]

@@milsyvideos3336 and hurricanes

[@milsyvideos3336]

@@haroldinho9930 That would be fun

[@haroldinho9930]

@@milsyvideos3336 you’re an inconsiderate human being

[@filevans]

prediction is way off as we had almost this in July 2022

[@Black_VoidXx]

By this time we will possibly be seeing stronger Atlantic hurricanes making it to the UK 🧐

[@TheChopmama]

Maybe in the south west or ireland, probably not the north east

[@davidfishwick5573]

Unlikey. To get a tropical hurricane you need an ocean temp of over 27c. Even with global warming at its worst, i can't see the Atlantic around the UK getting anywhere near that temperature.

[@gladysidahosa6326]

Uk don't get hurricanes because of the jet way

[@Black_VoidXx]

@@davidfishwick5573 sorry for the late reply to this comment lol. What I mean is storms forming in areas of 27C and making its way up to the UK and not becoming post tropical since the waters would be warmer (not 27, but still higher) to sustain a (maybe weakening) hurricane.

[@keith7976]

Could also be the forecast for 2030. The 'pie in the sky' graph shows +1.3 by 2050, we are at +1.22 in 2021. These numbers relate to 1900, that is 150 years after the start of the industrial revolution btw. I'm sure the goalposts will be moved again, a sure fire way to reduce the headline figure.

[@laonikoss]

This assumes the gulf stream is not interrupted - if it is, it would be more realistic for this to have been a winter forecast and the temperatures in the minus degrees celsius.

[@theadventurousallotmenteer6582]

not necessarily... fresh water invasion does not necessarily = a shut down in AMOC and therefore does not necessarily = cooling as all the historical precedents of freshwater melt are quite variable from what I have seen in graphs etc... It all depends where the fresh water is released from and how fast and from what event. For example the best I can interpret what I have read so far is that an asteroid/meteor strike in Hudson Bay may result in a rapid cooling and slow down of the AMOC similar-ish to last ice age, but the current situation is not guaranteed to disrupt AMOC entirely, and would likely to be somewhat offset by a warming atmosphere. Besides the latest sea surface temperature anomalies seem to be suggesting a weakening of the signals of the mid-Atlantic cold area, hence perhaps signalling at least a partial recovery in the AMOC current. This is my understanding from reading some journal abstracts and keeping an eye on current data analysis, however, I may at least, in part, have misunderstood so anyone who can correct me, with some academic sources I'd absolutely welcome that.

[@ChapOnRoblox]

43 degrees in my area, nice.

[@PGSL-r5n]

I'm looking forward to the mercury hitting 20'C in the UK throughout December and January.

[@javedriaz6862]

I hope so too.

[@jmas4405]

Not being funny you aren't very good with predicting and forecasting a couple days or a week ahead let alone 30 years no hate cos I understand its complicated maybe soon technology will allow highly accurate forecasting

[@Sam88-l4k]

Oddly a lot of GFS runs have this happening next weekend in 2022

[@win86wintfir33]

Yep 😬

[@Sam88-l4k]

@@win86wintfir33 slightly concerning for us as we are not climatised to these temperatures. In the last 6 years we've reached 35C or over at some point somewhere in the UK every year, which has never happened before. And people say warming isn't happening. If you look at global record high temperature, nearly every country keeps beating previous records more often than any other time in recorded history. Plus Europe is actually warming quicker than any other continent, its actually double the global rate

[@natashawilson1962]

Yeah and in 2015 we will have hover boards

[@gweilo965]

Is this meant to be bad news or good... it's late may and we had snow yesterday

[@tonywood428]

Unfortunately it's too late. 40c forecast in uk early next week. 28 years ahead of this prediction

[@simonwilliams4367]

If the Atlantic Ocean is still there then I'm predicting the UK will still be having crap Summers in the 2050s

[@Ro_david02]

crap summers but really warm temperatures like it will be heavy rain with 26C or 27C

[@kevinsmeeton9504]

@@Ro_david02 Sub tropical temps with a good thunderstorm.

[@ausriusdidziokas6771]

Probably around 30 as London by 2050 will have the climate that Barcelona had in the last 30 years.

[@phreatomagmatic8016]

Wow, the "barbecue Summer" you forecast back in April 2007, has finally arrived! Woo hoo.

[@kevinsmeeton9504]

Lol.

[@TheFunfairfan]

Today was 40.3C so pretty much there 28 years early

[@lukealvarez3744]

Well this is July 2022 forecast

[@leedaniels1468]

It's 2021 late May, day time temperature is 11 degrees and snow forecast for parts of Scotland so this projection must be right...right

[@cornwallkev201]

Oh come on, most of the time, the weather predicted for the next couple of days is wrong so how can 30 years time be correct.😁😁

[@gamers-xh3uc]

this is easier cause you can just calculate the amount of carbon dioxide released because global warming is man made

[@n9bjj871]

It will be like a tropical country complete with Coconut Palm Tree's. Really a totally different place.

[@markpodesta4605]

I really think this forecast could be reality within the next decade.

[@sammynoise]

same

[@chrisayling7675]

I think will need to see some other scientific Pappers.

[@drstephenb123]

It will be my 81st birthday on 24th July 2050, seems like I should plan a BBQ, although I fear the heat might kill me and the risk of fire might be too great, I lived in Singapore for a while and thought the heat there was bad, if (and heaven forbid) this actually plays out to be true, it will be truly awful, in so many ways!

[@gamers-xh3uc]

i will be like 45

[@Neil_Llewellyn]

They cant forecast the weather next week let alone 2050

[@sam9708]

So we will have it like the places we go on holiday then! Saving some money in 2050

[@leswatson8563]

Shame I won't be around in 2050. I'd love night time cruising on my motorcycle with temperatures like that.

[@jamesmontecristo3305]

I wonder if we will get these temperatures this year.

[@alTravelAndGaming]

Yes in 2022

[@jasonfernee2401]

Bring on those UK heatwaves in the mid 30 degrees... world holiday travel would fall off a cliff as people guaranteed sun in the UK wouldn't feel the need to head to the arid deserts of Spain. Can you do one on what a winter could look like?

[@sammynoise]

soon travelling will be useless unless you wanna meet ur fam

[@alTravelAndGaming]

im scared TOO HOT

[@MrMartino3]

Sep.oçt.nov.was rather damp,with Dec chilly.

[@stevenjones3236]

Mmmmm .. BALMY, bring it on I say

[@stormdennis9042]

Well if the GFS is to be believed today a 43.C figure may be achieved sooner than 2050. The GFS 6z and 12z run today (July 9, 2022) pumped out a 43.C figure valid for July 17, 2022. Is this possible? Well the chances are certainly not zero, but still unlikely at this moment. Is it worrying that a model thinks that this is a reasonable thing to say? Absolutely, yes! Even if we don't get one in 2022, will we get a 40.C+ day at some point in my lifetime? I think so, and I'm not looking forward to it!

[@stormdennis9042]

Update to this comment because unfortunately the GFS was onto something. For the first time ever the UK Met Office are explicitly forecasting a 40°C (104°f) day valid for June 19, 2022. It is no laughing matter! Homes in this country are built more for wind and rain than any other weather which tends to have the effect of mainly keeping heat in. Our infrastructure in general is simply not built to accommodate these sorts of temperatures. Throw in the high humidity/dew points values around these islands and this is going to feel more like a taste of New Orleans rather than a typical UK summer day, except that New Orleans has more A/C and an architecture built for their climate. Bottom line, there will be a lot of people who will be struggling to cope.

[@ausriusdidziokas6771]

It will become like New Orleans than a typical previous UK summer especially in south east so adaptation is key.

[@VoteReform-qr3hn]

The lads at GFS really predicted that. Very impressive and bold of them.

[@ohfuku]

May 2021 ... Still snow up north & typical rain down south

[@gamers-xh3uc]

yh but the carbon emissions will pump up by 2030

[@ChrisNorris]

I'd have moved to Iceland by then. Need 10 deg C or below to sleep at night.

[@avisiktachakraborty3438]

Whether office information of wind passing way and situation😮

[@jonathanmcrae3728]

Would be great to get close to them temperatures. Just think UK would be like Spain! And we'd have some great water parks. This countries weather sucks big time!

[@Philipwaltho]

hi don't wish for that it will horendus think of those who cannot take it

[@lemmy6782]

Fs hot in the summer who would believe it what next freezing weather in the winter .

[@Black_VoidXx]

🤣🤣funny enough, we might see 43C soon (today or tomorrow)

[@lukealvarez3744]

"Thankfully this isn't a real forecast" How IRONIC!

[@1669Python]

I would like to see a "winter" version. It is a bit political, I wonder if it was sponsored by the Greens?

[@benpaynter]

Little did he know that the UK would hit 40'C a year later!!!

[@sammynoise]

its january 2024

[@mahasimha8379]

We will see, I bet temperature will be similar to that one which is now...

[@cianmcguire5647]

~90% of the scientific community say otherwise. I think I’ll believe them.

[@bringhomethebasil8729]

In 2051 the Sun will be starting a Grand solar maximum period, so this is likely not too far from the truth of what will be

[@VoteReform-qr3hn]

43C in UK, 60C in southern Europe, 120C in Death Valley

[@JVoltsOfficial]

Its looking to be hotter this year

[@davidwhittington7638]

Interesting format, I doubt half the people making ignorant comments will be around in 2050, that's probably why they don't care. But their children and grandchildren will suffer. Looks like we have bad parents and grandparents..

[@TheIlhanTheElequent_ishaq]

I wouldn’t rule out 40c this year 😅

[@ivenskinner6947]

No chance 😒

[@TheIlhanTheElequent_ishaq]

@@ivenskinner6947 why ?

[@michaelespeland]

@@ivenskinner6947 Are you sure?

[@simonwilliams4367]

What will the weather be like in July 2050?

[@stephaniejeffries1191]

Hey, let's have a prediction of the new I've age instead.

[@Callum-yl6gw]

You good mate?

[@4700_Dk]

I’m betting we start hitting these temps by 2030.

[@leedsalex]

2022

[@JigglyRuff]

Definitely clickbait as the thumbnail literally had me. 😮

[@stonehens]

Warmer than this year's below average temperatures then? If it just gets warm enough to go without a coat it will be a winner.

[@grahamshillingford8229]

😂what the south east is not the warmest part of the UK... definately not a real forcsst

[@KJames2345]

Yep when it's somewhere across central England, such as Cambridgeshire.

[@Sam88-l4k]

I'll be 63 by then. If I win the lottery then I shall have a lovely air conditioned house by the sea and a deck chair. But in reality I'll probably die of heat stroke in a kitchen lol. But to be fair we are getting closer to that 40c mark. Given the last few summers mid to high 30's seem to be more common than it used to be. Even when I was a kid low 30's was about the max it got apart from 2003

[@richierich4810]

Tell this to the elite not us, its their fault not ours

[@grandeboy6276]

Yesss finally!

[@tonyjax8454]

So that means that winter's will be like -150

[@andycoomber6159]

All that extra heat in the global weather systems will for us in the UK mean more ocean evaporation and therefore more rain and gales. Knowing our luck.

[@dhawal7476]

Wait, even in 2050 the British are obsessed with India?! PS. Just kidding, long live Indo Brit friendship. 🙏 Thank you for advocating the urgent matter of Climate Change..

[@chrisayling7675]

The world is maybe warming. But it could be natural cycle too. I am not sure about this science too. There is so meany opinions.

[@Shurdeflurgen]

Don't forget though.....glueing ones self to the highway will reverse global warming.

[@janetskien3529]

Only Britain mind, France is lovely and green. Wishful thinking on someone's part I think 🤣

[@jamesmason8944]

Yip, they forgot about the rising sea levels changing coastlines.

[@justnothing69420]

32° For us...

[@chrisayling7675]

We will see what happens. Nobody really knows.

[@mattval6293]

Lol we didn't have a good summer like last year.