This Hurricane Season Will Be VERY Different. (2024)

The 2024 Hurricane season will be very different as we transition from El Nino into A la-Nina. La Nina tends to increase Atlantic hurricane activity by promoting thunderstorm growth across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico And Atlantic Ocean. During a La Nina year that follows a strong El Nino like the one that is happening in 2024, the tracks of tropical cyclones tend to be more active in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. The chances are growing for a La Nina to develop by summer and hurricane season 2024.
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Chapters:
00:00: Intro
00:53: La Nina Is Arriving FAST! El Nino is fading!
01:18: Tropical Tracks During A Strong El Nino
02:32: Tropical Tracks During La Nina Season Following Strong El Nino (Like 2024 Hurricane Season)
03:59: Chances Growing For La Nina During Hurricane Season
05:50: Computer Models For El Nino and La Nina
07:17: La Nina Is Arriving Fast. (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Change)
08:00: What Is La Nina? (How Does La Nina Affect Hurricane Season?)
10:18: Record Warm Atlantic Water (Hurricane Season 2024)
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[@just_weather]

This is not meant to scare anyone. The Climate Prediction Center has increased odds that we get a La Nina for the 2024 Hurricane Season. I wanted to dive deeper and look at la nina years that followed a strong el nino hurricane season like the one we are headed into for 2024. Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

[@baseviewer]

could you like, split the video for those new to meterology and those that are a veteran in meterology? thakns! i think it would be a great idea!

[@lellomeloni1]

@@baseviewer Hi, I'm Simone. Could Nina be moderate next winter? Or will it be strong?

[@MicheleB4506]

Thank you, sir. Any Nor’easter’s for NY Tristate? I’m sick and worried about power outages.

[@GardenerEarthGuy]

Can also bring more dust as well.

[@pmboston]

They keep getting bigger. Strap in. The next 80 years will be rough.

[@DadTheDT]

I live in Florida and hear that "This year is gonna be crazy for hurricanes!" almost every year. I'll wait till it gets here.

[@just_weather]

I’m not sure what you mean. Just because it’s an active year doesn’t mean Florida and your area specifically is going to get hit. There’s a lot of coastline. And I was showing the difference between last year and this year. Never said it was going to be bad for a certain area. - Jonathan

[@TheSparkIdea]

​@just_weather I get what he means though. I had to do a hurrican relief mission in the keys when a cat 5 hit. Everyone was fine, people were on the beach drinking beers hours after the hurricane passed. News outlets kept reporting "catastrophic level of damage"... it was palm frawns and boats. Some flooding but nothing dangerous. Roads were still open, and after a week we found 1 person with an injury.... they sprained their ankle from playing Frisbee Just saying, Florida is built different.

[@cross-eyedmary6619]

Life long Floridian and years we have active hurricanes we have mild winters. Last year we had almost no tropical weather and we had weird cold winter. We are due for hurricanes this year

[@TheSparkIdea]

@@cross-eyedmary6619 I don't think op is saying it's not going to have hurricanes. I think he's just saying "oh this is the year!" Type of stuff is more flip of a coin. Every year I hear it no matter if I lived in Texas, Florida, or anywhere on the coast. Most times it's 50/50. Literally half the time they are right

[@KimmieSue.]

​@@cross-eyedmary6619 I just made this same comment. My family has been in FL forever. This last winter was different. Definitely colder than normal. Idk if anyone else has noticed this but when we fell back 1 hr the dark seemd like it was 4 hrs. Meaning 6 or 7 pm looked dark as midnight. I've never seen it be quite that dark that early.

[@TheRealestHi]

The scariest thing is that insurance companies are charging 10 times more than they were 2 years ago. It’s just EVIL!

[@just_weather]

I agree. I’m in Florida and it’s terrible. - Jonathan

[@juksbr6235]

House prices went up so needs to coverup this difference and definitely will hit your pockets.

[@MygirlsGJPB]

Better to put that money in the bank rather than pay an insurance company who will give you a hard time paying out and then drop you.

[@brianf1929]

@@MygirlsGJPBthe problem is that in FL if you have a mortgage you are required to have insurance, if you don’t the mortgage force places a policy on you and that policy premium is expensive and will only cover the home. FL is essentially screwed right now when it comes to property insurance (and auto too)

[@kasimnabhan6037]

@@MygirlsGJPBuntil your house burns down God forbid… pay your insurance

[@seriouslyk8136]

I live in Port Charlotte FL homes on my street alone are still tarped from Ian and many many homes are still in disrepair. I will prepare and continue to pray God drop kicks these storms out to sea. Stay safe.

[@lisachauvin]

I live in Rotonda…prepare for the worst, hope for the best

[@staciachromasia]

​@@lisachauvinI'm in Rotonda as well. We finally just got our insurance check last week!

[@lisachauvin]

@@staciachromasia wow…it’s so cool you’re it Rotonda but it really stinks you had to wait so long on insurance

[@danielg2967]

I'm in port Charlotte as well. I still see blue roofs while riding through the neighborhood

[@tylerhoopes]

2:52 bro!!! The map change was insane!!!! Thank you for taking the time to teach us!!! So informative!!!! Thank you!!!

[@just_weather]

It really was! Very happy you found it informative! Thanks again! - Jonathan

[@dreeemer]

Tis the season to start tuning into your no-nonsense, no-hype hurricane season reports! Love and appreciate your approach. Sending you good vibes from Houston, Texas!

[@just_weather]

I appreciate that! Sending the good vibes right back to you as well from Orlando, Florida! Thank you! - Jonathan

[@inaslump]

I bet you watch msnbc & CNN also cause you love being lied to so much..lol Dudes been wrong about everything..

[@Sonofawildanimal4241]

FLORIDIANS ASSUME THE POSITION !!!

[@tonytorre9432]

I mean board up and lean back and drink beer? We've done this ,we've been there, nothing new.

[@Aashka_The_Mystic]

Don't wait till the last minute to stock up on water, batteries, candles and other essentials. Also fill your tank up to your vehicle often

[@2toeninja]

Just beer..

[@Lazy12394]

Wait!!! Do you mean get lube because the insurance companies are going to screw us Or run as fast as we can to Canada! The independent country… but commonwealth of Britain?

[@TampaClubLife]

LMAO don't forget the Toilet Paper!

[@jsvi]

Best explanation of the dynamics of ocean and air, and the weather: and I’m 62 and from Puerto Rico! Thank you.

[@just_weather]

I appreciate that! Thanks for watching it! - Jonathan

[@PackRatManiac]

I live on the Gulf Coast and we've been talking about getting our supplies early this year. 2024 looks like it's going to be an active year weather wise. Texas had some very damaging fires in the panhandle. We've seen tornadoes touching down in the Midwest, Kansas, and Arkansas. I don't think it's being alarmist to tell people the signs are there for an active season.

[@just_weather]

I agree with you. Always good to be prepared! - Jonathan

[@florindagonzalez5700]

I live about 2 hours from the gulf. Better be prepared than scared. ❤🎉

[@tonic.1917]

We've been thinking the same here in Mobile, AL!

[@troubledocean]

They used to say people who were warning about tne coming effects of climate change were “being alarmist”. Now, these *are* the growing effects of climate change, and they’re coming faster than most of the scientists were predicting in the early 2000s. I live NNE of Tampa, I am well aware of the changing trends and we no longer take any chances. A friend of mine lived through Andrew in Miami and her whole family lost everything and it traumatized her. She lives where I am, and every hurricane she preps like it’s going to be a cat 5, and all her neighbors always think she’s crazy. But, the past couple of years, they aren’t thinking she’s so crazy anymore.

[@mikezylstra7514]

gonna be active alright! But I don't think it's the weather (cough, cough)

[@tinagaribotte1699]

Thanks for this video. I just subscribed. Living way down South Louisiana, I have experienced many Hurricanes. I cannot imagine experiencing another one like Hurricane Ida.

[@just_weather]

Ida was terrible to watch from afar. I can’t imagine going through it. Will be watching closely. Thank you and welcome to the team! - Jonathan

[@darlenecheramie7309]

I'm still not in my new home since losing all in Ida😢

[@lisawhite8181]

I just now finished up on my home from Laura

[@Miami7]

Just subbed from the Orlando area. It's so nice when explanations make sense! I'll be watching.❤️

[@just_weather]

Thanks for finding us! I’m in Orlando too! You should watch WKMG if you don’t already. Thanks for being here! - Jonathan

[@michaelj3533]

Just subscribed from Port St lucie Florida. Insurance already extremely high, don't need anymore storms. Fingers crossed 🤞

[@just_weather]

Thanks! I’m just up on the road in Orlando and I feel your pain. It’s terrible. Need everything to stay away from Florida. Welcome to the team! - Jonathan

[@cg3862]

All aboard here from Stuart!

[@stephensawer6425]

Port St. Lucie in the house!

[@drunkensquirrel7545]

Jax in the house!

[@michaell1665]

Excellent video and explanation. I just subscribed. Definitely a factor for us here in southern Louisiana viewers! Thanks!

[@just_weather]

Appreciate that! Glad you found it helpful and thank you! - Jonathan

[@T.D752]

Southeast Louisiana here!

[@forrestgossett]

Subscribed! Jax, FL here. Good to have detailed explanations. Thank you

[@just_weather]

Welcome to the team! I’m just down the road in Orlando so will be watching the state together! - Jonathan

[@drunkensquirrel7545]

Same!!!

[@paularanzoni1527]

Thank u for helping to teach and inform us!

[@just_weather]

Absolutely! Thanks for tuning in! - Jonathan

[@mariapineda5634]

Thank you for your service ❤❤

[@just_weather]

Hey Maria! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

[@JBoberiii]

I'll be watching from the FL Panhandle! Thanks for the info!!

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! I’m just down the road in Orlando! - Jonathan

[@TheScorpion615]

Watching from SW Florida hopefully we don't get another hurricane for a very long time 🙏

[@paulmetheny2126]

Proud to join the team, will for sure tell others. This is well spoken, now real folks can understand weather. 👍 Houston, TX. 🇨🇱🤠

[@just_weather]

Welcome aboard! And thanks for being a part of the channel and spreading the word. Appreciate you! - Jonathan

[@PackRatManiac]

Hey neighbor! I'm in Pearland. After people (not the meteorologist) were downplaying how bad Harvey was going to be and then it got really bad, I'm not taking chances this year. It doesn't mean we're going to flood again like Harvey but we should be getting Hurricane prepared. We can't get complacent just because we haven't had any severe storms the past few years. 2024 looks like it's starting with a bang though. Tornados have been touching down across the Midwest and parts of Tornado Alley in Kansas and Arkansas. Plus those Texas wildfires were the worst this state has seen in years.

[@paulmetheny2126]

@@PackRatManiac Keep TEXAS WEATHER on you tube to watch. La Nina is going to be ugly this year for us. I'm ready in North Houston

[@inaslump]

LIES...

[@Loki.Lyesmyth]

Subscribed from Central Florida. Thank you for the great and no-hype info.

[@just_weather]

Where in central Florida? I’m in Central Florida too! You should watch News 6! And welcome to the team! - Jonathan

[@OneNationWX]

Excellent video! Love learning from you.

[@just_weather]

Appreciate that!! Thanks for tuning in! - Jonathan

[@armandolugones1018]

I live in the UCF area and work for UCF athletics and I have to say in-depth videos like this helps us prepare early for summer time weather, especially when it’s always so unpredictable! Thanks!

[@just_weather]

That’s awesome! I’m in Orlando and work at News 6. Glad you found this helpful! - Jonathan

[@sparklefulify]

Thanks for the good thorough explanation. We do need to understand. Living near Tampa…from up north, it gets scarey.

[@Juke582]

Great presentation Jonathan! Scary 😨 though wow 😮 let’s pray 🙏 man!

[@smileyG305]

Incredible how south Florida was nearly untouched in so many highly active seasons

[@just_weather]

It really is crazy! Hope it stays that way! - Jonathan

[@johnnyfrancois9491]

That’s so true we been getting spared

[@cindybarnes1533]

Hurricane Ian hit me. Enough said.

[@smileyG305]

@@cindybarnes1533 “nearly” operative word

[@patriciamay6396]

For now

[@marcmaillet4858]

I live in western Nova Scotia Canada, looks like we gonna have to watch the tropics a bit more this year

[@just_weather]

Always good to be watching for sure…especially if they get close to the east coast. Watching that Bermuda high. - Jonathan

[@humblewarrior6585]

Good Video !...Well spoken, clear and to the point !!!...God Bless You and Yours Always !!!

[@just_weather]

Thanks! You as well! - Jonathan

[@jowpopper790]

Great video that really explained the la Nina cycle. Doesn't look good but let's me prepare a little more. Thank you for breaking this down.

[@just_weather]

Absolutely! I’m glad you found it helpful! - Jonathan

[@poorwotan]

Thank you from Puerto Rico!

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! - Jonathan

[@kevinmartinez6428]

Great channel, I just subbed 🎉

[@just_weather]

Thank you! I appreciate that! - Jonathan

[@amyniemann9564]

Thank you for talking calmly and educating us

[@just_weather]

You’re very welcome! Thank you for watching! - Jonathan

[@albertoalfonso9780]

Great job. Clear cut, informative, no hype. Just the facts - no gloom and doom like my local channels. AA from Coral Gables, FL

[@just_weather]

I appreciate that a lot! Thanks for watching! I’m in Orlando! - Jonathan

[@alicemoore9858]

Jonathan Thanks for this information. Moved to the Gulf of Florida from Ohio and within one year have already experienced Ian AND Idalia I was more afraid due to the hype than the actual hurricane. Some of the mainstream meteorologists get pretty giddy presenting their "information". Definitely subscribing !

[@just_weather]

My gosh. That is rough. I’m in Orlando so we’ll be watching Florida closely together! Welcome to the team! - Jonathan

[@SaltySilverStacker]

A great explanation video! Subscribed in Wisconsin. Love El Niño, it was a nice warm winter here. What does La Niña years do to Midwest summers? Warmer, cooler? Rainy, dryer?

[@just_weather]

Welcome to the team! In the summer months both El Niño and La Niña loosen its grip on the continental U.S. other than the hurricane season impacts. Bigger correlation in winter for the two…but La Niña tends to be warmer for you as well in the summer time! - Jonathan

[@EllieM_Travels]

Excellent work informing and explaining all this ahead of time in a calm, rational manner. I never knew how La Nina was formed. Thank you!

[@patsyray5396]

Tuning in from Slidell, Louisiana on the north shore from New Orleans. Went through Katrina. Very apprehensive with this upcoming hurricane season. Appreciate your consideration concerning the “fear factor” for hurricane season 2024.

[@dandenton2438]

Damn how did I not know you made your own channel finally! Hell yeah, bro!

[@just_weather]

Hey man!! Thanks for finding it! - Jonathan

[@magpiethriftadventures2660]

Tuning in from SWFL, hoping not to see any hurricanes, we are still rebuilding from hurricane Ian 😢

[@brianbowen472]

Same here ! Just finishing the last touches on my remodel 😤.

[@just_weather]

I feel for you guys. Hoping these stay away from us in Florida. - Jonathan

[@71rwtd]

Great information!… Thank you.

[@HelloSabrina18]

Thank you for this information! We live on the coast near the Gulf of Mexico and my daughter is terrified of storms! So I really want to be prepared as much as possible! Thank you for educating and not causing fear for us!

[@just_weather]

Absolutely! We can root for these storms to stay out to sea together! I appreciate you tuning in! - Jonathan

[@Bretandmarisa]

Just got a sailboat in Stuart Florida, definitely going to be watching!

[@just_weather]

Congrats! Thats awesome! Hopefully everything stays far away. - Jonathan

[@johnathancampbell1056]

I live in psl let me go on a boat ride with you one day! Please lmao

[@stephaniewalchle4033]

Southwest Florida girl here already got my water and storm supplies also just got new screws for my shutters ❤ good to go 😅

[@just_weather]

You are ahead of the game! Happy to hear that! - Jonathan

[@Sonofawildanimal4241]

Hope you did get any damage from Hurricane Ian! That storm surge was unbelievable!

[@stephaniewalchle4033]

@@Sonofawildanimal4241 I was so close to the really bad flooding that the governor was in my neighborhood but thankfully my house was completely fine I am blessed

[@Hannah7Banana]

Watching this from Hastings FL. Me and my mom currently live in a manufactured home... so we better get ready 😬

[@just_weather]

Always good to be prepared! - Jonathan

[@loisdolly4781]

Good afternoon... My location is Southeast Coast of Florida. We've seen hurricanes both big and small with some being more destructive than others. Thank you Jonathan for taking the time to explain the differences between the ENSO and the La Niña weather forms and their patterns of movement. I never did quite understand the differences between the two until today by watching your informative weather video. Thank you so so much for the enlightening information. And for everyone out there, take care and be safe!

[@just_weather]

Thanks so much for watching! Really happy you found it informative!! - Jonathan

[@mike-vw1zn]

I was hoping we would be in el nino this summer but doesn’t look that way dag gone it , I live in a flood zone in Florida, I’ll be keeping a good eye out. Thanks great forecasting

[@just_weather]

I hear ya. I’m in Orlando and just hoping everything stays out to sea. Will keep you posted! - Jonathan

[@yellowbird5411]

Due to the massive increase in insurance premiums, many have dropped their coverage as it became outrageously too expensive, even with a paid off home. Many others with mortgages have been forced to sell, as mortgage companies make you have insurance. I have to wonder how those who had no insurance managed after a devastating event that destroyed their home.

[@just_weather]

I can’t imagine. Not sure where you live but it’s awful in Florida. That’s where i am and it’s extremely hard to get insurance…let alone affordable. Really can’t afford another hurricane strike. - Jonathan

[@barbmormile4806]

Ohio sucks. Dangerous as he - - here. Tornados last week and two nites ago 9 tornados hit at once. Governor now declared a state of emergency. It's nothing but a war zone here. Every year it gets worse. Every spring and summer I'm anxiety ridden and can't wait for winter.

[@yellowbird5411]

@@just_weather I'm in Florida also, in Gulfport (St. Petersburg). I just dropped mine for my home, and will be modifying the rental home to liability only. The insurance went up to where if I kept both, and they were as low as I could get with high deductible, it would cost me $400 a month, or a bit more, actually. We've been lucky here in St. Pete.

[@yellowbird5411]

@@barbmormile4806 I don't remember Ohio as being a tornado/storm state over the past. Has this changed? It appears so. Tornadoes are popping up where they never used to be.

[@jhfit]

They will get bailed out

[@kermitrussell2455]

Thanks for the explanation of El Niño versus La Niña. I didn’t know the difference before

[@just_weather]

I’m really glad you found it helpful!! - Jonathan

[@timothyreeves3070]

Thanks for your interpretation of our coming season.I live in SW Fl;orida.Looks pretty active.

[@just_weather]

Absolutely! Thank you for watching! - Jonathan

[@walcott161154]

Very low sound in the last couple of news broadcast. Thank you for the great info.

[@just_weather]

That’s interesting. It sounds fine on my end. Thank you for letting me know. - Jonathan

[@retiredcaracer7351]

I discovered your channel last year and now this well done no nonsense report where someone finally talks about the links between El Nino and La Nina for hurricane season with just the facts!! Well done. Thanks for SE Texas.

[@just_weather]

I appreciate that! Thanks for finding the channel’ really appreciate you watching! - Jonathan

[@deep6301]

Greetings from Daytona Beach Florida. I'm always watching the sand storms off Africa..

[@just_weather]

Hello! I’m in central Florida too! - Jonathan

[@DaveTinNY]

Great info, Jonathan. Just retired to Jacksonville (FL) from New York. Weather nerd and fascinated by severe weather for the last 55 years. I'll be following.

[@just_weather]

Welcome to the team! I’m just down the road from you in Orlando so we’ll be watching closely together! - Jonathan

[@christineytzen8269]

Enjoy retirement! Weather nerd too. Moved from one hurricane state to another other. LA to FL

[@maryp8838]

Please vote Republican. We don't want anymore Demorats.

[@DaveTinNY]

As a veteran, I detest your comment and will not let it slide. I swore an oath to defend the Constitution and Democracy. The current R-party does not.

[@barbberg5719]

@@DaveTinNY thank you! From St Augustine!

[@kennoybrown3946]

The red line through Jamaica was Hurricane Gilbert, the strongest landfalling hurricane on record for the island at only cat 3 strength

[@just_weather]

You have a good eye! Let’s hope not stays that way. Don’t need another one. - Jonathan

[@edwardmiessner6502]

I remember it! It was when I was still Christian (Boston Church of Christ) and my "zone leader" (equivalent to a bishop) told us of the devastation on the island. PS He was white Jamaican-American.

[@Mantis_Seer]

I searched on my phone about la nina and i read the word ENSO the same second he said it. everything is connected and everything is connected in heaven also.

[@Ballaholic17]

As much as I hate the destruction hurricanes cause, it's so fascinating to learn about them and watch them develop. It's so interesting all the factors that it takes for these storms to just form. I'll be following your channel. Thanks

[@just_weather]

Welcome to the team! I completely agree with you! - Jonathan

[@unazitella702]

We just got our pier back in Surfside Beach, SC from Michael damage. The construction has been a nightmare, so hopefully it holds up this season.

[@just_weather]

I hope so too! - Jonathan

[@patriciaolsen5850]

I am hoping the upcoming Nina can get nyc back into a more normal winter like pattern. 2010-11 would be nice. Nina winters up here tend to be front loaded. Problem is once they snap like it did in early feb 2011, it likely means close the shades till next Fall.

[@just_weather]

No doubt about that. The northeast needs a good winter! - Jonathan

[@josephlaviolette6399]

Thank you for your explanations about hurricanes during a La Ninia season. I think this is very helpful and important to a lot of people who have to deal with hurricanes. I was also wondering if you could provide another video explaining what La Ninia means for the country as a whole and what the typical weather pattens usually are during a stronger La Ninia season generally speaking. Thank you- Joseph

[@just_weather]

I can absolutely do that! That’s a great idea. Thanks you for the feedback! - Jonathan

[@pj3p488]

In Palm Beach county the pattern I have noticed for 25 years or so is this. The wind on the lake where I fish has been a great predictor. When it is windy during late spring and through summer, storms either go up into the Atlantic or down below the keys. When it is really still in the summer, we ALWAYS get a storm in Palm Beach.

[@just_weather]

Very interesting! That is likely because of the stronger Bermuda high keeping the winds calmer on the day to day but would also help to steer them more west. - Jonathan

[@swinde]

2004 and 2005 were strong season in Florida with FOUR strong Hurricane landfalling in Florida and many strong hurricanes in 2005, including Katrina, Ivan, Rita, And Wilma that struck Florida in late october with Cat 3 winds.

[@stephaniewalchle4033]

😇 I wasn’t even subscribed but I am now ❤

[@just_weather]

Thanks so much! Welcome! - Jonathan

[@proudchristian77]

Crap 💩 is not holy baby , 😳 words r important! 💝

[@stephaniewalchle4033]

@@proudchristian77 I wasn’t being literal, but I do apologize if it was offensive to you I’ll amend my comment 😇

[@williamzee7748]

OK…so bottom line how many category 3,4, 5 hurricanes are going to hit Florida in 2024….Gulf side and Atlantic side do you estimate happening?

[@just_weather]

Good question. Impossible to say. The water is already juiced so I’m not looking forward to that. Florida is interesting. Certainly looks like we could have some Gulf action…with close calls on the Atlantic side. I’m in Orlando and watching that closely. - Jonathan

[@williamzee7748]

@@just_weather thanks…went thru Idalia and not looking forward to another so trying to get heads up on Gulf side and even Atlantic side for Caribbean cruise ships ventures.

[@johnnyfrancois9491]

Let’s hope nothing hits Florida this coming hurricane season Ian was a very bad monster storm for the gulf side of Florida

[@williamzee7748]

@@johnnyfrancois9491 Idalia was worse than Ian on Gulf northwest side…both not good and surprising as Gulf Florida hurricanes are rare.

[@serenarodriguez1411]

Thank you from western puerto rico

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

[@lawrencehubbell9397]

Subscribing from FL gulf coast. Forewarned is forearmed. Thank you!

[@just_weather]

Welcome to the team! Thanks for that! I’m in central Florida so will be watching closely. - Jonathan

[@dandaerrt]

Here in Houston so not ready for this season

[@just_weather]

I’m with you. Hoping they all stay out to sea! - Jonathan

[@kevinmartinez6428]

Do you think the Bermuda high will be stronger and steer more storms to Florida? Thanks

[@just_weather]

I’m in Florida and we are watching that closely. With that cooler pool of water and long range model guidance highlighting at a strong Caribbean year I am thinking a stronger Bermuda high. Analog years based on forecast Sea Surface Temperature anomalies had a storm or two on the gulf side and close calls on the Atlantic side. Will be very interesting to watch this come together. - Jonathan

[@ddouglas3687]

I appreciate the heads up on the possible severity of hurricane season with actual past performance data and ocean temps which absolutely do correlate! So keep the chainsaw juiced and sharp and the generator ready to roll is what I heard. 👍

[@just_weather]

Unfortunately that’s a good idea. We shall see! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

[@jimb3093]

Greetings from Cleveland, Ohio. Interesting.

[@just_weather]

Welcome! - Jonathan

[@BAMyankees614]

They can modify and geoengineer any weather event they want now, big or small. It should be your content from here on out.

[@just_weather]

I only talk about science and meteorology and not conspiracy theories on this channel. - Jonathan

[@just_weather]

No one is advising me of anything. I just understand science. - Jonathan

[@giedrebey5444]

South Florida always worry about that season, since I have paraplegic husband. Love no sky is falling tactics 🙏so subscribed

[@just_weather]

Appreciate you. Welcome to the team! We will keep you guys posted. I’m up the road in Orlando so watching for Florida closely! - Jonathan

[@joellanier3060]

Great Job Jonathan. Am retired Meteorologists (40 years). Good to see a level headed presentation. Mother Nature has a way of throwing unexpected curves, which at times we don't figure out till the day after. LOLs! The colder North Atlantic waters, does throw a curve ball at the situation. What do you think of the baroclinic feedback into strengthening upper level wind shear associated with the TUTT because of the increaed baroclinicity as a result of cold vs warm Atlantic sea water. We also have to contend with oddball long wave patterns occurring due to Arctic Amplification. (Dr.Cohen is doing winter research on that, but I believe it could also impact summer Jet stream patterns.) If it was just El Nino vs La Nina without Arctic Amplification, I would be more confident about the 2024 season. And I do think it is going to be a barn burner. But crazy stuff may happen.

[@just_weather]

That is awesome! Obviously you have a ton more experience than me, but I couldn’t agree more. Have seen so many “slam dunk” severe weather days bust because of the simplest thing. That is an interesting point. I was thinking it would help in thunderstorm development but it could also have a net negative. With the increased shear from El Niño last year the warm SSTs overcame obviously, but the the whole Atlantic including the subtropics was a blow torch so this is a bit different. I think that is certainly something to watch. I can’t remember the year off the top of my head 20 or 21…but I feel like that scenario was bullying storm development for a lot of the season. Models kept biting on intensification, but they rarely did. Great to talk with you! Hope to have more conversations in the future! - Jonathan

[@dannyferrer2609]

Thank you for all you do. Danny from Miami Fl

[@just_weather]

Thanks a ton for watching! - Jonathan

[@user-oq9op9eu2y]

My name is Ferdinand, and I live in a small country, which is Belize, in Belize city, located in the extreme Northern Central America. It's a small country, that is prone to flooding. This country is almost 100% mostly covered in very very dense rainforest and swamps. So, if a Major hurricane is to hit Belize, the entire country will be extremely, extremely, extremely devastated. The most recent hurricane that hit Belize in was Lisa. And it caused major damages. But this hurricane season, which will be far more worse than last year, I don't think the country of Belize is ready for this, because it's a very small country. 🥺🥺🥺🥺🥺🙏⛈️⛈️⛈️⛈️🌀🌀🌀⛈️⚡🌪️🌪️🇧🇿🇧🇿🇧🇿

[@just_weather]

Hello and welcome! I remember Lisa well. We were tracking it for Belize. Really hope we can avoid everything this year! We will be watching 🇧🇿- Jonathan

[@Evyeve6582]

I pray your country of Belize is spared from any hurricanes. In Jesus’ name. 🙏🏼

[@user-oq9op9eu2y]

😇🥲🙂😉☺️😊👍

[@lovemyhoney1352]

Hurricanes have been around since the dawn of time. Now there are more people developing areas we should leave alone. That causes problems everywhere.

[@carlamartinez4728]

South Florida! All ears! I like your content!!!!

[@just_weather]

I appreciate that! Thanks for watching! - Jonathan

[@bellaza28garcia71]

Just subscribe from Puerto Rico 🇵🇷

[@just_weather]

Welcome to the team! - Jonathan

[@keithboyerN4TRN]

I found your channel at random. Good information and no hype. 👍

[@just_weather]

Appreciate that! Thanks for stumbling across it! - Jonathan

[@globaltb6676]

Congratulations, great explanation and overall presentation. You mentioned that the increasing tradewinds push down surface water in the south Pacific. Why do tradewinds increase during La Nina?

[@just_weather]

Thank you! It’s all because of the pressure gradient. When there is a large difference in pressure in the pacific the winds increase. When the gradient relaxes the wind also does. Hope this helps! - Jonathan

[@kaileymarie2251]

Following along from Clearwater!

[@just_weather]

Welcome to the team! I’m just east of you in Orlando! - Jonathan

[@ajnaquin7721]

God bless thanks

[@user-fc7is6jo2e]

Thank You!

[@just_weather]

You’re welcome! - Jonathan

[@astrolingus]

Thanks

[@user-tr8rg1xg9e]

JW, Are tornado outbreaks worse during La Nina's? Do they have historical tornado track overlays with La Nina's? Excellent video! 👍

[@just_weather]

I know at least El Niño years tend to focus more on traditional tornado alley…while La Niña tends to have the severe weather in the Deep South. - Jonathan

[@user-tr8rg1xg9e]

​@@just_weatherThank you for the information! Excellent weather analysis! 👍

[@marshamckee2479]

We are still cleaning updowned trees here in PERRY FLA.. there are still tarps on some roofs in town..we dont need any more storms

[@just_weather]

We do not. That’s awful. - Jonathan

[@chuckcummins9149]

Well !!😊 Glad to see you're doing your homework already ... as always, I'm sure you will be well prepared to pass it all on ...already, there saying in little Bim to expect a busy season ... with water temps rising already ... thanks ..... !

[@just_weather]

You got it my friend!! Always good to be prepared no matter what! - Jonathan

[@8180634]

S FL here, it was a very warm winter, did not have to turn the heat on once. It's going to be a hot interesting summer.

[@just_weather]

Very investing for sure! - Jonathan

[@timblack33]

So what you’re saying Is I should probably hold off on putting a new roof on the beach house until late this fall

[@sanchezechenique8141]

GIVE ME A BREAK!! I hear this EVERY year. What is going to happen is standard. I've lived in Florida for 64 years. I don't need the hype.

[@just_weather]

Actually last year you didn’t hear this. - Jonathan

[@fatcats7727]

good vidoe😊

[@jeremypearson6852]

Even though I have shutters, I just got a quote for impact windows today. I’m trying to take all the precautions I can, but at the end of the day I’m still praying we don’t get another hit. If my insurance keeps increasing at its current rate, I may not have any choice but to move. Roughly $6k for house and cars now. A long time S Florida resident.

[@CherylDailyNews]

Well J, wasn't this video a breath of fresh air - hahaha - not really but we need to know. And it's only mid March. Yikes 😱😱😱. However, thank you for your awesome, honest explanations - and thank you for being there for us 🤗🤗🤗.

[@just_weather]

Haha I know. I feel that. Appreciate you! - Jonathan

[@justinwortham]

So glad I brought the travel insurance for my cruise this summer. 😅

[@kennycarter5682]

i moved to pensacola florida the winter after sally, i am yet to get my 1st tropical storm day..

[@just_weather]

Let’s hope it stays that way! - Jonathan

[@kennycarter5682]

@@just_weather I'd love to exp a tropical storm day but I want hurricanes to avoid me like the plauge

[@Imaniworlddryag]

Here in Central gulf state of Texas!

[@just_weather]

Welcome! Thanks for tuning in! - Jonathan

[@peepmyfinesse]

Love how all of us here are Floridians!!

[@deewilson446]

We recently moved inland after living through Ian. No more. No thank you! It looks like our move was a good one! ❤

[@just_weather]

You’re probably right! Can’t imagine going through Ian! - Jonathan

[@justinstriff9847]

Just sub I'm gonna be watching carefully i live near Augusta ga so I'll be paying close attention

[@just_weather]

That’s a lot! Appreciate you. Welcome to the team! - Jonathan

[@allisonangier1631]

Informative video. I hope you get a chance to upgrade the graphics you are using.

[@just_weather]

What do you mean? - Jonathan

[@user-eh1dm2rz6h]

Hi, I'm Simone. How could the next nina be? Could it be a strong type followed by a qbo+ with a high and possible solar activity?

[@Udansha]

Great, thanks for stressing everyone out smgdh

[@just_weather]

How so? - Jonathan

[@Udansha]

because we Floridians who, been here over 50 years know all about this. Been through Andrew, worked outside in these storms. We just got over a pathetic scamdemic and your here to get clicks to scare people. Running to the stores for water, wood supplies. Why not teach why we have hurricanes? They do serve a purpose. Its nature, teach that instead aof a looming La Nina. If your a Floridian youre sick of this crap,> And why did I comment? It was unfortunately on my loop feed@@just_weather

[@ragewinninethousand4140]

I live in WNC but my folks live on the coast. Gunna be an interesting year

[@just_weather]

Hopefully everything stays out to sea! - Jonathan

[@paleggett1897]

Just subbed from WV

[@just_weather]

Hey! Thanks a lot! Welcome to the team! - Jonathan