KYLE'S PREDICTION: Who Will Win The 2016 Election? | Trump Vs Hillary

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Clip from The Kyle Kulinski Show, which airs live on Blog Talk Radio and Secular Talk Radio Monday - Friday 11:00 AM - 12:30 PM Eastern time zone.
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[@samwolsk6213]

Stop shaming him for being "wrong"...he was closer to correct than almost anyone, and if you say you knew Trump was going to win, your prediction wasn't based on the facts like Kyle's was.

[@fehzorz]

His political analysis is 100% right in this video, he just didn't do the math correctly on the probability of Hillary winning all 4 of MN, MI, WI and PA.

[@rubygreta1]

This was pretty brilliant, despite the miss. Buy Kyle was closer than anyone else.

[@in_wino_veritas]

Except for Cenk, who predicted a Trump Victory (278-260 in the Electoral College).

[@libertyprime69]

Styx predicted 278 too.

[@MikeVernonProd]

Jeez, your prediction was so on the point. Like scarily on the point, until you said that Trump won't win Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. He won all three. Still, your prediction was really good. Good work dude.

[@Mprator]

One small but glaring omission , Maine-2. Deferentially expected to go for Trump.

[@KillingWithaSmile613]

looking back, this guy was spot on in his analysis. solid stuff. mainstream media coverage of this was a joke

[@Sacrilege83]

From the Left side, Kyle's view is the only one I can appreciate.

[@darkstar4494]

Sacrilege83 Kyle is the real left. The progressive left. The rest is corruption and corporatism in both parties.

[@knightwing5169]

If only Bernie Sanders had won the nomination.

[@0sarah0911]

knight wing bernie would win ohio. everyone here either likes him or trump. im talking about the white midwest voters kyle was referring to. it would be no question who would win the election.

[@tomimpala]

IF ONLY, MY FRIEND

[@argenys]

knight wing we can give him. Tremendous power in the Senate if we vote in Hillary with a Democratic Senate. If we don't we just lost 4 years of not only nothing but going backwards on our most precious policy interests.

[@jakobjager1734]

Who is watching this in 2020?

[@SadisticSenpai61]

To be fair to Kyle, I also thought Hillary would just squeak out a win. I was pretty sure she was going to lose Ohio and maybe Florida. I initially thought she would lose Pennsylvania, but as we got closer to the election, she looked fairly solid in Pennsylvania which made me think she might pull it off there anyway. The problem with Michigan is that everyone assumed that it was going to go to Hillary, so they didn't bother polling very much there. As soon as the Michigan results came in for Trump and then didn't shift... I knew the race was pretty much over. I kept looking for ways she could still pull out an electoral victory, but without Michigan... Well if Michigan went red, chances were Pennsylvania would as well. Wisconsin was unexpected. And anyone who thought Iowa would vote Hillary this year clearly have no idea how rural Iowans feel about the Clintons and Hillary in particular. She is irrevocably tied to NAFTA and a lot of Iowans lost good factory jobs to that - not as many as in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, but we don't have as many ppl here in Iowa either. If it had been Bernie.. Well if it had been Bernie, I'm fairly certain we'd have a President Elect Sanders right now.

[@joshntn37111]

Not a chance! Bernie would lose Florida by ALOT. Along with N.C, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Trump would then get all red states. Boom. Done and dusted.

[@a.whiteman4182]

Damn! Kyle was close on this! Credit.

[@johnsmith651]

this guy is one of the few that realized Trump could win and doesn't have egg on his face like everyone else

[@CherriPicking]

This popped up in my fyp - looking back, I'm sobered from 2016, but still have hope for Harris!

[@dvdv8197]

Fyp?

[@idkwhybut...]

For you page ​@@dvdv8197

[@Mydayiscomingsoon]

Please explain why you're voting for Harris. What policies of hers do you like? And please explain WITHOUT bringing Donald Trump into the conversation, I'm asking why you're voting for Harris, not why you dislike Trump

[@dvdv8197]

@@Mydayiscomingsoon Why vote for Trump when he's again and again showed you he's anti-Union, anti-Worker, anti-teacher and quite simply anti-USA? Genuine question.

[@avatarwan5824]

​@Mydayiscomingsoon * $6000 child tax credit * $50,000 tax break for small businesses * $25,000 for first time home buyers * rolling back Trump tax cuts, enacting billionaire tax, quadrupling tax on stock buybacks, tax on unrealized gains for ultra wealthy (iirc over $500 million) * capital gains tax of 28% * $35 cap on insulin and $2000 annual cap on out of pocket drug expenses for all Americans * federal ban on price gouging * penalize firms that hoard houses to drive up home prices * federal restrictions on corporate landlords doing price fixing * Would sign pro-abortion legislation * Supports the PRO Act (will sign it) * Supports the Equality Act (will sign it) * Supports removal of Presidential immunity for former presidents * Would appoint liberal SCOTUS judges * Supports ethical rules and term limits for SCOTUS justices.

[@Xplorerhobo]

I've absolutely loved your videos on this election Kyle! Watching this unfold from the other side of the globe has been horrific and incredibly interesting. I've gotten most of my election news from this channel and for that I wanted to say thanks! Greetings from Sweden

[@justinh3175]

Lacceh What the hell are you on?

[@Andres-cq3ly]

Lacceh You have no argument. So what he would vote for her? It's not like he didn't cover her negative stories. He's very open about how much he dislikes her.

[@Andres-cq3ly]

Lacceh You have no argument. So what he would vote for her? It's not like he didn't cover her negative stories. He's very open about how much he dislikes her.

[@Thunder103093]

Lacceh also he doesn't endorse anyone voting for Hillary anywhere! Hes already said it's up to your Consciousness who to vote for! So give the fuck up & get lost already!

[@garfieldthecat3385]

We could've had Bernie

[@Imperius1988]

Kulinski 2020

[@toasted1316]

Solidus he wault be old enough

[@paulycappuzzno8858]

toasted butter whenever he can run

[@Pxrish]

+toasted butter wault

[@PrivateAlex1324]

Ikarus x Elias _wault_

[@Slashplite]

Kuliński*

[@simone.7076]

No one: KZbin: want to relive 2016?

[@neoguy2809]

Me: yes please 🤭

[@fehzorz]

Everything Kyle was saying turned out to be 100% accurate. His only failings were that he just didn't do the math properly on the 4 rust belt states. With the numbers you gave, Trump had a 62% chance of winning at least one of them (1-(0.8^3)*(0.75)), so Trump was more likely to win than not. He also forgot to follow up on the Michigan surprise by predicting something similar could happen for Trump, and forgot to mention Wisconsin was very similar (Bernie defied polls and won). His point about ground game being a boon for Hillary was true... in the states she actually targeted. That means her ground game in Michigan and Wisconsin was probably weak.

[@johnjohntv1195]

United States Of Embarrassment

[@bruceleeroy8302]

I'm 10 minutes in and Kyle is spot on so far...

[@bruceleeroy8302]

@12:24 That's where Kyle went wrong, because Trump got 3/4...

[@Sacrilege83]

Better in judgement than David Pakman and TYT.

[@henryclay7456]

ya i am very conservative but actually enjoy your show

[@Sacrilege83]

Kyle is the only reasonable one on the left I've found so far. D. Pakman is not even close.

[@taylorrao9093]

You predicted almost every state. You even added a caveat about Michigan. You were way more accurate than most people.

[@bhromorrahman8513]

Your prediction was actually the closest I found!

[@JakeWerkmeister]

Honestly, this was probably the most honest prediction out there. Much of this was very accurate.

[@ASAPHMARK]

Kudos Kyle. You predicted correctly for OHIO, FLORIDA, NORTH CAROLINA and IOWA though you got it wrong for Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania!. I would give you 60% rating.

[@Koipur]

"Uh oh, pucker your buttholes" -Kyle 2016

[@doublemm22]

What a time capsule

[@NuggetsXInfinite]

Michigan is extra pissed at Hillary, I can see it going to Trump. On some of my road trips across the state, Trump signs and supporters are everywhere and finding someone who supports Hillary is very rare. People are suffering, they yearn for change, that's why we fought for Bernie and won against all odds. With the DNC tipping the scales in favor of Hillary, some of that anger may be channeled into voting for Trump.

[@AdamSmith-gs2dv]

Putin's Dog What about Detroit? If she wins it will be entirely due to Detroit (which is stupid since it will only get worse under her)

[@michaelbell4079]

Putin's Dog Same thing here in Wisconsin, I think Trump will take my state. I'm voting Jill :)

[@DG0398]

Detroit isn't that big of a city.

[@AdamSmith-gs2dv]

Drew Gaughan I agree, Detroit shrinking may help the Reps, but it's still too big and will carry the state, look at 2012, all red but stupid Detroit...

[@DG0398]

Adam Smith There are enough white working class people left in Detroit who have been fucked by NAFTA and will vote for Trump. He can win this thing.

[@Conk_23]

You were the most right wrong analyst.

[@Doomcorner64]

jeb will get 500 and whatever points in the electoral college

[@DG0398]

Jeb! SURGE!

[@sociallibertarian7723]

Doomcorner64 oh god idk if that even better

[@HoanTraker11]

*_PLEASE CLAP!!!_*

[@piratesfan1995able]

Doomcorner64 damn straight

[@sand1573]

Jeb! is a mess.

[@LKfan1234]

"Nate silver has slowly but surely morphed into me" Then how do we know whether this is the real kyle or not?

[@farahzaqout6866]

Asking the real questions!

[@grandomega1217]

Whatever happens, as a Somali Muslim, I just wanna say it's been an epic journey and we're really gonna miss this place.

[@TheAlmightySmelldoor]

I love all these people taking the high ground and shouting "you're wrong Kyle LOL". That's why it's called a PREDICTION.

[@TheAlmightySmelldoor]

The Abel But he also explains how he's been wrong like Michigan and Bernie, so I don't understand this one sided stance against a prediction, it's a prediction of course it can be wrong and of course Kyle knows he can be wrong on this. That's my whole point. I think all of these comments rubbing it in his face are just misplaced anger in the form of vengeance at a guy who knew he could be wrong and will accept that.

[@geico105]

The important thing is that David Pakman was wrong.

[@WillCarter1976]

Huff Po had hillary at a 98.4 percent chance of winning. What we didn't know is that they polled Only Huff Po subscribers lmao.

[@tugboatsvideoemporium6476]

Watching this in 2021. Damn, good analysis. Obviously wasn't right, but had a closer analysis than most people.

[@MutinyN648]

Hillary better break out the hot sauce for this one.

[@Inferno361]

Does it matter? America lost.

[@Lobsterwithinternet]

+Josh Walker ...like getting fucked up the ass year after year? Seriously, every election I've personally witnessed has convinced me the American electorate are akin to abused housewives. They get raped again and again but keeps forgiving their rapist every time and begs for more. Makes me wish for the way they did it in the book 'Starship Troopers'.

[@kohlscunty]

Josh Walker why errbody gotta be such a dick? But, as Killer Mike put it, if we survived Reagan, Nixon and the bushes, we can definitely survive either a Clinton or a Trump presidency. Id argue you support the green party's presidential candidate to give them federal funding for 2020 and vote downballot democrat (or whatever candidate isnt horrible if the democrats suck).

[@TheRobster2007]

+Josh Walker Damn, so triggered. He's right, America has lost for at least 4 more years. All that can be done is to educate people about these politicians. Which should be easy considering either candidate is going to further degrade the quality of life for the average citizen.

[@UTUBESUCK666]

Time to care less about America and a lot more about Americans.

[@kohlscunty]

Hell, either horrible candidate can potentially be a good thing if activists keep up what they're doing. Hillary can show the left how horrible democrats are, and Trump may just straight up destroy the republican party. Already has kinda.

[@Uzi_-ee2nx]

Florida - right Ohio - right North Carolina-right Nevada - right Colorado - right Iowa - right if only he nailed the rust belt

[@bencristofani3116]

I can't fault your method. You were really close but Trump somehow managed to edge out 3 of the 4 states that were in high competition.

[@hapisky5013]

E

[@fehzorz]

If you do the math, Trump was actually more likely to win than not. The probability of winning all 4 states where you have an 80% chance of winning is only 40%

[@bencristofani3116]

@@fehzorz I see your point, but there are numerous considerations that you gotta make and various paths of math or logic you can follow. Kyle knew it would be close, many others did too. Electoral politics can sometimes throw surprises at you.

[@voxomnes9537]

Thank you for the fair and unbiased analysis. I am so glad that I am subscribed.

[@klimopeter2712]

Kyle, I just wanna say thank you for the deep but fun(!) political analysis that you have given throughout this election. You were my primary source and I wasn't disappointed. You tried to be as objective and critical to both candidates as possible. I have been following you since the Iowa primaries. All in all great job Kyle, keep up the good work! I will keep watching your videos and listening to your commentary that has always been very informative and on point.

[@nickangelpadilla]

me too

[@donutsacrifice2588]

Same here. I pretty much don't even watch TYT anymore. And I used to watch Philip DeFranco for news but all he ever talks about is youtube and social media, so yea. Kyle is literally, like, my only source for actual news anymore.

[@vayacanalla2529]

me too 👌

[@bobgolden939]

Great predictions. You did well Kyle.

[@Ohflipsnap]

Tomorrow, history is made. The day after? Predictions of the apocalypse.

[@Frahamen]

It's easy to guess who'll lose: everyone.

[@Deezyus]

All I care about is that Jill Stein 5%..

[@yulbahbo232]

Oh man, don't vote Shill Stein! She is a Soviet spy trying to get Putin into the government. She is like, working with Assange and stuff to like, make Hillary look bad. They are paid by Russia, and Hillary said so! It's a fact!

[@mikecraig2062]

Yul Bahbo nice trolling

[@Enfiare]

+Mike Craig super sarcasm

[@Enfiare]

I'm with you #gogreen

[@Lobsterwithinternet]

+Yul Bahbo Cool story, m8.

[@joeschmoe6690]

This aged very well.

[@igNights77]

The World Ends Tomorrow.

[@Pridetoons]

I was there when Bernie Sanders won Michigan!

[@bruceleeroy8302]

I'm watching this while looking at the election map from 2016 and Kyle is nailing most of these predictions

[@kasunex1772]

It is wild how much Kyle's analysis has worsened over the years. These days it's all polling and lefty twitter talking points, both of which he was rightly skeptical here.

[@thepify3539]

@@kasunex1772 lmao cope

[@inigknot101]

LmAo CoPe. So braindead

[@maurice7618]

​@@kasunex1772 Has it though? What is he missing in recent analyses?

[@kasunex1772]

​@@maurice7618Look at him in these videos talking about how you can't take the polls at face value and looking at all the different angles. Then look at him more recently only discussing the polls and ignoring everything else.

[@MegaAwesomeguys]

One of the very few people who actually believed Trump might win. 21:13

[@toxendon]

@@kingporo LMAO good ole days

[@Iguana-Power]

The way I look at is: Trump has a path to victory. Clinton has paths (plural) to victory.

[@joeharris3297]

Ian G great way to put it

[@OfficialSeth]

*Trump leans into mic* Wrong. My path is tremendous. We're going to build a wall blocking all of her paths, folks. When we're done *sniffs* she will only have one path leading to prison. *sniffs*

[@Iguana-Power]

***** I know paths, I have the best paths.

[@GalaxyGal-]

Do I want Trump to win so I can see Cenk Ugyr's reaction or Clinton to win so I can see Alex Jones's reaction. Alex Jones.

[@GamingMasterAnthony]

either way, its gonna be funny to see their reactions

[@chrisanderson8254]

KyleBuschPackFan that's a win, win right there

[@awsumpossum1]

why would trump be livid, he hates and isnt excited for hillary in any fashion. to him its a lose lose election. For jones Trump is literally the reincarnation of George Washington, prepare for a meltdown of epic proportions.

[@clayfromplanetearth3509]

This time he just might go into cardiac arrest. He'll be red permanently.

[@theanimationlads7598]

Was actually pretty impressive, you were right about the uncertainty

[@Koploper77]

If Hillary wins: "Residents of Sanctuary Hills, if you are registered, evacuate to vault 111!"

[@DovahKanye]

BUT I'M NOT ON THE LIST.

[@Koploper77]

John E WELL THEN YOU ARE NOT GOING IN

[@DovahKanye]

Daniel Dankers BUT I AM VAULT TEC, I'M GOING IN.

[@Koploper77]

John E *guy in power armour points gun at you*

[@DovahKanye]

Daniel Dankers I'M REPORTING THIS.

[@ZombieProdigyUS]

Who else is here for 2020? 🤔

[@bassbole]

Honestly, what does it say about a party when they benefit from having less people's voices heard?

[@zell9379]

Fuck. I'm in Florida and I REALLY don't want to have to hold back my puke and vote for Clinton. Was going to vote Jill Stein, but damn if Trump wins Florida I will feel partially responsible.

[@anthonyz6913]

Simple Complexity - Simplistic difficulty, I would just like to say, Jill stein has a 0.01 percent chance of winning.

[@rockyea8562]

The lesser of two evils is a valid concern. If someone told you you had to pick between AIDS or Chicken Pox would you say both are bad you choose? Sometimes you don't have good choices and have to pick the lesser of two evils. Bernie almost won the primary so it's not hopeless that next time you can get the candidate you want.

[@benwe10]

Zell Trump is anti establishment and an outsider. He's anti TPP and anti NAFTA. He's against middle eastern wars and will not go to war with Russia.(HRC is for a no fly zone which will make us go to war with russisa) Pls vote Trump.

[@rockyea8562]

He says he's against them but he's benefited from them. Hell Hillary says she's against TPP I don't believe her and I sure as hell don't believe him. I think he'll be s war hawk too.

[@zell9379]

Ended up voting for Jill Stein. Fuck em both. The DNC did everything they can to lose my vote.

[@TheState51]

I just would like to say that this election is how I discovered your great honest channel and your coverage has been great. So if there's one good thing out of this disgusting slimy shit show of a "democratic" election for me is that I discovered your channel. Thanks Kyle .

[@JHruweTV]

Raymond Wagner Same

[@DJichOffical]

Raymond Wagner so true

[@ElhajMahmoud]

Raymond Wagner well you said it better than I would .

[@davidrouse3958]

Kyle’s glow up should be studied

[@BiggusDiggusable]

Haha. My first thought!

[@ThunderJuice]

People underestimated the anti-establishment vote. It happened here with Brexit and now it's happened with Trump. Kyle got the winner wrong but called exactly how Trump could and has won.

[@Ranmus]

I wonder if anyone counted those diehard simpsons fans who would jump at the chance to elect trump so that their episode would come true?

[@fachriranu1041]

I laugh my ass of when Maddow so smug in her piece about NO WAY Trump can win. LoL. Great prediction Kyle..

[@OnlyNattysatUSC44]

Hey Kyle, i am a former Bernie Sanders supporter turned Trump supporter and I have been following your work. I just wanted to give a shout out because it was clear to me, although you are bias, you are informed and you didn't follow your party narrative of bowing down to the Clinton machine because you respected your principles. Now, I am no die hard conservative, as i am a registered indepenant who has happened to vote republican the last 3 elections. But i think conservatives appreciate people who follow their principles while being informed. Good work Kyle. Hope to see more of it.

[@joshuaramirez6615]

How hugs Bernie was the key :(

[@milespq5561]

U we’re on a roll til u said Hillary would win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.😂

[@RJH755]

Yea but he was a lot closer than mainstream media, and his overall breakdown of it coming down to Minesotta, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania was spot on

[@milespq5561]

Reuben Holland ya 4 sure. That’s y I watch him instead of CNN.

[@mikejobari9974]

It is approximately 4:00 am EST and Donald Trump has just been elected president of the United States. I would like to issue a special thanks to every genius working at the Democratic National Committee who were just so set on tipping the scale for Hillary because she was SO much more electable than Bernie, who was only a tiny 15 POINTS AHEAD ON AVERAGE! Hillary is such a great candidate that she blew it in WI (which hasn't gone red since '84) and PA (which hasn't gone red since '88). Fucking geniuses.

[@bitesizecrayons7536]

Kyle truly is a political wizard. He compartmentalizes his bias from the facts, and he's usually on-point. Bravo, man, I don't want to just fellate you with high regards, but your observations are accurate, and yet you're humble.

[@chivochivo1597]

yo this is crazy 2 times in one day this channel is popping up in my recommendeds that's so rare. and it's for old vids. why can't KZbin recommend his new stuff

[@Ruby_Eve]

Because the algorithm is bs

[@inigknot101]

Because his new stuff is trash compared to the old stuff. I miss this Kyle

[@lionelsteele007]

Trump is not the president we need; he's the president we *DESERVE*...

[@koreanchick1231]

But we can only have so many immoral people in this country :(

[@jonathonedwardmiller]

My official 2016 prediction was even worse: I thought she'd lose 270-268, with Clinton winning anywhere from 228-308 and Trump winning 230-310.

[@lestertellezitg]

This is genuinely a decent prediction!

[@charleswomack2166]

Even I had thought that he would at most get 275 electoral college votes!

[@reagan8653]

I’m guessing u gave Nevada and New Hampshire to Trump, the blue wall to Hillary, that will be 270-268 Trump win, because that looks like the best pathway he had for the election based on the polling average.

[@jonathonedwardmiller]

@@reagan8653 I had her win Michigan and Pennsylvania but lose Wisconsin. In 2020, I had Biden win 321 EVs and I was only wrong about North Carolina!

[@reagan8653]

@@jonathonedwardmiller wow, my 2020 prediction was 290 for Biden, 248 for Trump, and I also only got 1 state wrong, which was Georgia. Have u made a prediction for this year yet?

[@JPLE4eva]

"Nate Silver is slowly but surely morphing into ME!" - Kyle

[@SamanthaSteinbring7]

JPLE4eva he's getting so cocky

[@JPLE4eva]

Yes but I love it

[@SamanthaSteinbring7]

I do too! XD

[@vayacanalla2529]

You always really got a point Kyle, I feel the same about tomorrow. I have been watching your videos for more than one year and I always have you as reference when processing all this "---" Great job!

[@dantheman8152]

Predictions were decent

[@simone.7076]

Yes

[@connorsutherland3842]

HAH

[@tmac642]

Next minute he wins Ohio and Florida and is the 45th president of the United States

[@alygomez1636]

not bad. I'm a conservative and enjoy watching your show. I try to be objective. #MAGA

[@Sacrilege83]

Bernie v Trump 2020 How it was meant to be!

[@syafsmith5085]

@KenjiAzurai It's berning and getting closer now.

[@rman6572]

The only lefty I've seen who was even remotely close.

[@memoless8437]

if Trump wins (I hope not) the amount of smug liberal pundits jumping off bridges will be astronomical.

[@ziggyzap1]

this is one of your best videos, you had me on the edge of my seat.

[@onebuc5874]

Dang 22 minutes for a prediction video you must be predicting every single state and the margin of victory in each state lol

[@ethanhollen6538]

Da Revolutionary Basically what he did. lol

[@MrOnlyUSEGUN]

Ethan Hollen not really

[@PetethePorpoise]

This is remarkable. You were very accurate on this one.

[@taylorbeckett9686]

I made the same predictions beforehand. It wasn't hard to predict this one, he needed those states. If Ohio fell, he wouldn't win. If he won Florida and NC, he won.

[@sonhadorpr]

Thank you Kyle, for your very well informed rants! I love your show and am a big fan, from Puerto Rico.

[@stefan4159]

Ah, good old times.

[@yes3443]

I think Hillary will win.

[@axphine]

Me too

[@manwithaplan5503]

Y'know, I got a good feeling about *Jill Stein*

[@youreokayboah2128]

@@axphine BLM terrorist organization +$1,000,000,000 of damage to cities +1,000 deaths from cops and African Americans alone -Billions of dollars donated to ActBlue, which then goes to the Democratic Party.

[@neoguy2809]

@@youreokayboah2128 the republican party is worse

[@neoguy2809]

@@youreokayboah2128" BLM terrorists organization" nice dog whistle

[@Sylentmana]

No matter who wins, we're fucked.

[@OfficialSeth]

Well, the poor are fucked. Everyone else will be moving to Canada.

[@Sylentmana]

Canada won't take us.

[@kmeccat]

I'm going to be having an anxiety attack after the results are called tonite, regardless.

[@catpurple5262]

keep in mind just because people are registered Democrat doesnt mean we voted for her...Jill Stein 2016

[@cuvjhuh331]

75% to the power of four, a 30% chance, of Trump not winning. Your politics were right but your math wasn't.

[@gregmattson2238]

should have done the math, kyle.. If you have 4 states at 80% odds, the likelihood that at least one of those states will flip to the unexpected side is 60%. In other words, by your own argument trump had a 60% chance of winning the election.

[@gregmattson2238]

@Jeremy Jackson fair enough, there may have been some correlation there, but statistics is a harsh mistress, and if one state flipping blue caused the others to be at 85%, that still left trump with a 39% chance that one would flip. on the other hand if one state flipping red caused the others to be at 75%, then the odds were a 57% chance that one would flip. combine those two, and he still had a solid 44% chance to win overall. perhaps not enough to solidly declare a trump victory, but enough to slide his confidence scale down to the point where his prediction was NOT a clinton victory on the lower end.

[@anticorncob6]

Kyle, why aren't you making one for this election? I remember watching this bone-chilling video the day before the 2016 election and I'm sad I don't get one this year.

[@janestakelley4001]

damn Kyle, I just saw you have almost have half a mil subs now...i remember when you were at 15K, I always knew you were gonna get big :)

[@charleswomack2166]

Overall, a decent analysis Kyle. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, and you said that it was common for the polls to be off by 3 points. I began watching your videos on `November 9th, 2016, and I am just now in November of 2021 watching this video. I had told my HRC voting friend here in California that Trump was going to win, due to the absolute energy and enthusiasm amongst his hard-core supporters. Back in the primaries, my guess was Ben Carson until after Iowa because he had successfully tapped into the hurt and the angst of voters in Michigan and Ohio and the rust belt states that Donald Trump was going to win the primaries. It wasn't until Michael Moore had explained why Trump was going to win that I was convinced that Trump was going to win. I voted for Trump, but my vote doesn't count in California due to the HEAVY leaning D+58 or something.

[@nickhamel8004]

Came here after midterms 2022

[@joec.1766]

This is sad to watch after the election.

[@lammykll]

If Trump wins half the country will be excited. If Hillary wins no regular citizen is excited. This is upsetting.

[@LaurynJuhl]

Prediction at 13:30 You're welcome

[@nesdork]

thanks!

[@LaurynJuhl]

MP USMC SRT I got you 👍

[@LaurynJuhl]

OJ dude Oh man you caught me. What gave it away? Was it the long blonde hair or the sparkly bikini? 😂

[@shivangikulkarni508]

good job....better than media

[@TheJesseWu]

you only got WI MI PA wrong

[@thatgui88]

Recommended crew

[@confusedarmchairphilosopher]

Yep

[@lumrodger868]

Smae

[@ethanpkaiser]

If trump wins Florida and New Hampshire (which is possible), there could be a tie at 269-269.

[@comiclove5]

RandomTopic Teen That would be hilarious.

[@system0fadowner251]

Nicholas Perry Hillaryious

[@anarcho-boulangistllamaent2023]

Would be fair, both are equally terrible.

[@Retalak]

2 *69* That means they can both go fuck themselves.

[@ethanpkaiser]

Gamingforce well, if Maine's district goes blue and Nebraska's goes red, it would give it 269 each. That's all.

[@utah133]

I went ahead and voted straight democrat. If she's winning, might as well have a matching senate so things can get done.

[@simplecomplexity-simplisti4386]

Just voted for Jill Stein! Damn, it felt good. Edit: I damn near checked the Trump box, to spite Clinton.

[@BrainStormTnT]

Karl Frewer Not really a wasted vote. The green party gets benefits for the next election based on the national percentage. Also, if you are not in a swing state, voting for the two main parties is just as useless

[@girlinahat3407]

Karl Frewer Look its all down to the swing states. I am voting right now for my local government.

[@mailtv1]

Simple Complexity - Simplistic difficulty Fuck you voted for a useless candidate. But at least not Clinton.

[@timothygumenik726]

and here we are.

[@troy242621]

Time to suck it up and vote Hillary. Not letting a demagogue take Michigan.

[@jameshumphrey9939]

troy242621 both Clinton and trump are bad for our country - clinton worse I'd say. She will take us into endless war and death at the behest of the corporations. She is nothing but a career politician that would have gone nowhere without Bill who takes advantage of the system for her personal gain. Clinton is full of legitimate scandal and disregard to our nation - see Wikileaks and her constant on going criminal investigations. She was never really cleared of the email scandal and as new information surfaces she will likely face indictment. Then there is the clinton foundation and it's pay for play donation system. Think about it why would foreign nations be donation millions of dollars to an American foundation as opposed to contributions to charity in their own countries - think about it it's not to hard to understand.

[@monte68x]

Voted for Stein and I feel great about it. Really don't like Trump but he's better than Hillary. I detest Hillary Clinton.