Largest Stock Market Rally in History with David Hunter

Interview recorded - 10th of January 2024
On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I have the pleasure of welcoming back David Hunter for a 4th time. David is a contrarian macro strategist with 49 years of experience on Wall Street.
During this conversation we spoke about David's thoughts in 2024, why we will see the largest stock market rally in history, what this means for inflation, what causes the stock market rally, whether the FED can save the market and more. I hope you enjoy!
0:00 - Introduction
0:56 - What Will Happen in 2024?
2:13 - Biggest rally in history
9:03 - Broad market rally?
9:28 - Inflation impact on markets?
10:48 - Institutional Investors to drive market
13:13 - S&P500 breaking all-time highs?
15:48 - Stocks Up, Dollar Down & Energy Down?
18:38 - Which industries in cyclicals to perform?
21:08 - Catalyst for the peak then crash?
31:13 - Would Powell increase interest rates?
32:48 - Underlying economic issues
35:48 - Japan precursor for globe
37:18 - How do equities perform during high inflation?
41:08 - Will FED be unable to save market?
46:28 - One message to takeaway from our podcast?
David is an investment professional with 25 years of investment management experience and 20 years as a sell-side strategist with strong expertise in macroeconomic analysis and portfolio management. His strong macro capabilities combined with a contrarian philosophy have allowed me to forecast economic cycles and spot market trends well ahead of the consensus. David is an intellectually honest, independent thinker comfortable with charting a course away from the crowd. Accomplished stock picker and value-oriented portfolio manager.
David Hunter -
Twitter - / davehcontrarian
LinkedIn - / david-hunter-668ba015
WTFinance -
Spotify - open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG...
iTunes -podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
LinkedIn - / anthony-fatseas-761066103
Twitter - / anthonyfatseas
Thumbnail image from - coingape.com/web-stories/the-...

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Do you agree with David that S&P500 will reach 7000?

[@Thatguy-gd5it]

The Market is directly correlated in M2, so depends on Treasury issuance.

[@jisskk28]

No

[@TangoBinAlsheed]

SPX 10,000

[@issenvan1050]

What happened to his 80% meltup in July?

[@anthonymalik9952]

S&P Shiller PE ratio is currently over 30. 7,000, while possible, is highly unlikely.

[@foodmonsterweightloss5886]

I hopefully agree with David's analysis. I remain fully invested in the market with all of my funds allocated for the market. Just yesterday my friends told me how they screwed up by getting out at the beginning of 2023 or bragged on getting out at the beginning of 2021. They think I'm crazy for still being fully invested. We'll see...

[@drewcohen8237]

Good call… I got out partially in Q1 23 and regret. As Rick Rule says, inevitable is different than imminent. Good lesson though …

[@cosmiccontrarian3949]

Hunter is delusional on the inflation numbers. Inflation is raging, everywhere.

[@brianpereira7483]

Hes talking about the fake government numbers that are given

[@etsa2008]

It is a shame that people still have them at their show

[@DJRS2178]

Where's the inflation? It's over, prices are trending down.

[@Stevenjweber]

Haha The cp-lie is coming down and the us gov needs inflation to keep tax revenue strong. Stocks are going higher

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

He said dis-inflation, not deflation.

[@marcelbiesinger5283]

Dear David, dear Anthony, I wish you both the best for 2024 and I am going to enjoy this newest video. Greetings from Bavaria Marcel

[@jbru8725]

David has been more right than me. I can see his logic of increased market participation with many fund managers not fully invested. But from what I can see, the rally from Oct 2023 seemed to be driven by increased liquidity from global central banks and massive company buybacks. And I think sentiment has already got quite high that the contrarian position would be down from here.

[@thehungergames8918]

David Hunter is a legend 😃✊

[@jackinsonpablanes760]

the melt-up is happening as we speak, crazy shit!

[@TheDudeAbides369]

yes it is! absolutely crazy shit!@@jackinsonpablanes760

[@ivanmejia6843]

I always turn to David Hunter for fiction and comedy. Who needs Netflix?

[@jackinsonpablanes760]

fiction? The melt-up has been happening since last year dude SP500 just reached a new ATH and it's going schizophrenically upwards, this is not a bull market, bull markets aren't that frenzy, erratic and fast, as they say, bulls take the elevator, meaning uptrends are slow, I've been trading these markets for 5 years and I've never seen that indeed, this crazy volatility is the trait of bear markets, not when bullish so he's right, this shit is gonna blow off the top and then it'll crash, it's unsustainable

[@TheDudeAbides369]

you could be making money instead of trying to be right.. made big big money since you claimed you knew what is going to happen.. smh...

[@oliverclothesoff4142]

I’m all in with Microsoft making good profits but I am paying close attention to the charts to know when I should be getting out. Let’s ride this rally ☕️

[@graceamsterdam5404]

Thank you gentlemen. It is remarkable that this scenario has been, kind of, predicted by several people already by june-july 2021. I could not believe the ‘wildness’ of it. Coming out of lockdowns, expecting the world to pick up it’s routine again. Well we know what has happened. The melt-up percentages sound attractive at first impression, but the reasons for it to happen are terrible. For now bottomline, inflation means ‘less free time’ for the poorer amongst us (not for the rich!). I honestly wonder, when the younger generation will get involved in politics and all, to start building on the world that they envisage. Anyway, life goes on and there are always opportunities when you take a moment to look and when you are prepared to world hard for it. Pivoting is a wonderful capability. 😄

[@x1k790]

The younger generation is building the next wave of technology that will inevitably reverse power back to individuals and likely create sovereign nations that reside online on blockchains. The movement is well underway and crypto will eat up all that money printing. That money will fund the next wave of builds etc. Change is here and what they can build AI may possibly fill the gaps. We are in the 4th turning

[@istvanpraha]

People like this take the 4000+ level for granted as if 4000-4800 is based on reality. Meanwhile, getting to 4800 was a huge stretch and relies on loads of stocks being ridiculously overvalued, ignoring earnings, ignoring the real economy, ignoring the Fed.....if we needed to be blindly bullish at all costs to get back to 4750, what else is there to propel stocks even higher? Heaven forbid we get actual organic growth. Remember those days?

[@TheDudeAbides369]

wrong!

[@issenvan1050]

What happened to his 80% meltup in July?

[@Stone881]

Well we're in it, nothing moves in a straight line

[@pipe3marez789]

180😂

[@GoogleHerouxMA]

Was worst ever market last year and was saying a melt up was on its way, nope, total broken clock is right half of the time

[@GymWorkFamily]

He called for 80% move higher in July? No way? Wtf?

[@jonathane5284]

Has anyone ever been more wrong, more often, than David Hunter?

[@oliverclothesoff4142]

Yes Peter Schiff ☕️

[@etsa2008]

I don't understand how stock market guru like DH and PS can be 90% wrong and still arrogant.

[@jacknaneek1681]

Besides my first wife, no one.

[@KluverBucy]

Harry Dent

[@etsa2008]

May be Avi Gilbert too

[@user-hu7io5th8w]

Thank you Host, David calls only labels himself a contrarian, a big understatement.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

No problem. Do you believe he is a contrarian?

[@user-hu7io5th8w]

@@WTFinancepodcast he certainly is. But his analysis is beyond that.

[@advancedbodydesign]

Thanks David...My LEAP Options are MINT 🌈 💰

[@allanschaefer6518]

Don't know if it's going to happen but if it does it will begin in 2nd Quarter. We are very close to a short term peak now.

[@wayneatwell7039]

He has been saying the exact same thing for over two years. We are 3 to 6 months away from a rally to $7,000 and he has been wrong over and over again

[@etsa2008]

Finally someone is calling out the nonsense

[@jackinsonpablanes760]

you're delusional, SP500 just made a new ATH 😂😂

[@jackinsonpablanes760]

this is the melt-up happening right before your eyes

[@GoogleHerouxMA]

True, he’s been wrong for years and now we rally and he gets back with 7k. If not hitting that level and crash, it will mean he was never right of anything. That’s it!

[@TheDudeAbides369]

exactly! delusion runs rampant in all these comments claiming David is delusional. LOL@@jackinsonpablanes760

[@peterdenham9510]

Great channel IMO more fear and doubt content will motivate sellers to complete their good work

[@detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still following the informative content cheers Frank ❤

[@a.nonymous8766]

"You're either a contrarian , or you're a victim." -- Rick Rule

[@istvanpraha]

He mentions the "soft landing" scenario. Well, just because people have bought into it doesn't mean it's real. It felt very random when we just declared inflation over, even though it's not over. We also have the issue of record high housing and rent unaffordability which is still a huge problem. Food inflation is also a huge issue, even if inflation is now 0%, doesn't mean that issue is solved. I was looking to change jobs and there are very few REAL listings. It makes you look at the jobs report and realize how bad they are as measurement tools of the economy. All I care about are actual real, well-paying, full-time jobs. Not part time fast food jobs!

[@somejohndoe3004]

"The AI boom has boosted the Magnificent 7 stocks' combined market cap to $12 trilion - that's nearly triple Germany's GDP." -Business Insider. I don't know if this is the case at the moment but to David's point, can I just say that prior to be called a valid melt up a bull market just looks like any other bubble ? But, off course, that is not enough to get the timing right. We still may be far from the time when people will jump on blue chips to squarely protect their purchasing power. Just my opinion. Thanks for the interview Anthony. 🙏

[@asiantownvideos]

I'm the contrarian of the contrarian, likely a drop to 3500 this summer, before rally to 5500 into 2025

[@dave8212]

Really enjoyed hearing from Dave again - thanks Anthony - I still have a lot of faith in Dave's calls & believe he is 'on the money' even though it's difficult to call the timing on this craziness - good luck to all! 👍🏻💛

[@sanjitanandasanjitananda8955]

did David give a gold price prediction?

[@etsa2008]

he predicted that Gold will be 2500 in 2021, then he pushed it to 2022, then he pushed again to 2023. Now he is saying 3000 at 2024. you know what will happen next. He will keep updating the date. I followed his call on silver, and it was complete disaster.

[@pauldevincenti9427]

David Hunters' call makes a lot more sense than most understand...it is a combination of a Fed having to cut to catch down with bond yields and to reverse too tight policy and the fact that so many are incredibly bearish still

[@istvanpraha]

"the fact that so many are incredibly bearish still" where are these people? Everyone who has money/the financial media is ridiculously bullish. They ignore bad earnings and all negative economic data (including consistent job report revisions).

[@charlieforsgren3759]

THE MELTUP IS HERE! 🎉🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 David was right all the time

[@emilechantiri5909]

David Hunter, in time, will prove to be ahead of his time

[@issenvan1050]

How does he come up w/ these numbers?

[@cjb8993]

It's going to quite difficult for the market to melt up 50% from here when we're completing a 5th wave high on multiple time frames. Those time frames are the shortest being a 5th wave from 2020 lows, a 5th wave from the 2009 lows and the longer term, largest 5th wave from the 1932 lows. I fully anticipate after this final 5th wave into the 5300 level which can certainly extend to 5400 or so, once completed, to usher in the first wave lower which will be a firs crash wave in the market which should be VERY brisk likely taking us to 3,500-3,300 level on the SPX. Then we'll enter a bounce for a couple of years back to 4,500 where we'll see a lower high, and begin the next crash wave lower, taking us to the ultimate low around 1,000-1,700 SPX before it's over... The above scenario should take the better part of a decade. We're going to witness the second great depression in the next several years, unfortunately. I believe this to be most probable, not a certainty but highly probable.

[@WTFinancepodcast]

Do you believe it is the right thing to do to go so far back in history as a mechanism to predict market movements? It seems as if a lot has changed since 1932 and hard to see the connectiveness

[@cjb8993]

@@WTFinancepodcast the saying in my business is “this time is never different”. Sentiment and cyclically as well as bubbles never change, they simply get reconciled, period. If anything, the longer the period used for validation, the more valid the count. Buckle up!

[@sbain844]

Seems to me that market sentiment is already at peak frenzy. I expect economic reality will soon start to kick in, because more and more data releases are going to disappoint from here on in.

[@w161616]

david hunter was right at the depths of the 22 slump he called for new highs coming in the indexes. unfortunately i could not believe it would happen.

[@etsa2008]

He called for sp500 to be $6000in 2022. How is that right

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

​@@etsa2008 On its way To where the air is sweet

[@crazylegsgio2866]

He’ll be right one day ..law of averages

[@peterp4753]

Inflation will skyrocket in February, there will be no cutting!

[@maxwolf8055]

As they cut 0.25 and the US A inflation goes to 15% 😂

[@robertjones-iv7wq]

The things about David's suggestions that picks everyones' nose raw is in a "modern" recession, it's (40 years) almost always a "rolling" recession or appreciation. In one period of time it's this sector, the next period it's another (up and/or down). It's similar with inflation, rolling sectors up or down. The media refuse to use compounding inflation, by saying "inflation's down to (lower number) during this period, showing the "trend is" x%. Bull crap. prices are still rising, even at any rate over zero. And those compound. Same with rolling-sector markets. #1 sector goes up 400%, then down 25%, sector #2 goes down 10%, then up 50%. Short-termism is the media mantra. The fact is, David's suggestions may take more time, but over the past few years have been accurate in direction. Oil is still above $70, after (as he suggested, just not as low) it had declined to $58 from $120. Gold is above $2000, Asia in aggregate has been mixed, but Japan has been great while China was miserable. Everything is variable today, yet in aggregate, from '22 lows, been not at all terrible, unless you're in bonds. Traders, by daily round-trips, can make a lot, or blow their wad. Very good traders will average say +15%/yr. Foolish traders can make 1000%, then blow it. Unreal-good traders can make 1000%, but only keep 500%. Have your core positions, say 20%-50% fully invested, trade with 30%, hold 20%-50% in high-yield cushion-cash. The fully-invested portion may avg 5%-8%/yr using a DRIP, but will go up & down with markets, the cash yields 5%/yr compounding, the trading portion, if you're very good ranges around 15%-20%/yr. Always, there are amazing stories of 10-baggers, but few intelligent investors have more than a single-digit of investment total sum in any one of those (ie 0.5%-9.9%), and that profit must be realized to be worth anything. Conclusion: Don't dismiss David's suggestions because they don't happen quickly-enough. Maybe allocate 25% to his suggestions, more if you're a true believer. If you have other sector-advisory sources, perhaps 25% to their suggestions. Perhaps 25% to high-yield cash, just as opportunity or safety money, and maybe trade 25%, if you want to take a spin. Nobody, that's nobody is always 100% accurate. You must accept that, or your blow your brains out messing around, or by doing nothing but hold a savings account. Will SHTF? Absolutely. When? I dunno, you tell me. I won't deal with cryptos because they only exist in peoples' minds. Others think they're absolute salvation. Whatever. What's your version of SHTF?, after any economic topping... Can you plan for a worst case?.. Mine (worst-case) is -50% to -85% in markets; -40% to -80% in residential housing; cash must be converted to CBDC; meaning cryptos -100%; LTBonds convert to perpetuals; then mid-terms convert; interest rates on short terms go to 0.0% or negative; then, suddenly, real tangibles & resources inflate double-digits (after prices falling -60%). Suddenly "preppers" won't seem like the lunatic fringe, but most of them will be stunned by still being ill-prepared for anything longer than 2 months. And in the worst case, a gaggle of geese, pair of mules, a couple German Shepherds, Dobbies or Rotties ain't a bad investment, but you must feed them or they'll eat you. Paraffin may again be a life-saver as will pectin & alum, plus a big pile of coal. It's just a normal human cycle of reactions. Enviros & Political extremists (left & right) will all (justifiably) lose their jobs, and a dim-witted realization of reality will recover and slowly hiccup its' way to a reasonable human society. Folding cash & barter will again become legal. Recovery will be slow, as a huge portion of global society are dying off due to old age. There won't be any baby-boom to kick-start frenzied growth for at least half a generation (20-50 yrs), maybe a full generation (40-70 yrs). Doctors & Dentists may be again forced to accept chickens, painted fences & a roast of beef in payment for services. In Canada, they may even be forced to re-strike pennies...of pure copper, again. If you want to bet on a better outcome, go ahead bet everything on day-trading & crypto. I assure you this, the successful day-traders on the web, have a lot of physical gold & silver in currency-coin bullion, their 3 properties are paid-for, and one's a small farm with a well somewhere. They hold cash in several currencies, plus mid-term/short-term bonds, plus absolutely-necessary industries' shares paying dividends, knowing you will always need heat, water, soap, toilet paper, rice, rolled oats, chicken, ground round, veggies, canned x, y or z, and sugar, flour or baked goods...and those companies have very, very little debt. Then, they play the fringes and advise viewers on playing the fringes to pay them today's income. So... Back to David. For years I've read the comments after his discussions. About half are critical. That's only because they want instant gratification, and should know for that, they need to follow reddit "Game-Stop" crowds who pick on anything and sucker the desperate suckers. There's a ton of BS on KZbin, but also a lot of very thoughtful channels allowing you both sides, so you make your own informed choices. David is one of those informed choices, Hedgeye is another, Rick Rule, Danielle, DoubleLine, and many others are honest, sincere, and well-researched. But, you choose, and it may not be accurate as quickly as you want it to be... For the truly nuts there's Cramer or a bond-king or a "world-is (doing this tomorrow)" channel. Every brokerage/fund manager from A-Z offers their best (compliance-delayed) research, and every media outlet has one side or another, in split-second formats. You have a choice of information to check & judge. Is it sufficiently in-depth & useful? is it talking their book? or sound-bite crap? It's your call.

[@chrisflynn93]

Big call !!! I pray he is right As I’m all in ( tech )

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

What if u lost it all

[@Vaughnny]

If your prayers are answered, the melt up will be followed by a massive bust. Will your fingers be quick enough to hit the sell button or will you ride your tech stocks down?

[@brandon0129]

Excellent analysis! Thanks

[@bdek68]

Assst managers and institutional money have mandated parameters on valuations and are accountable to their shareholders. No way in hell they are going to pay up that much and maintain their jobs! We are already overvalued right now with earnings expected to drop for 4Q! This what makes Wall Street look bad when it’s made out to be a casino

[@phil.s2245]

Good luck

[@issenvan1050]

How about M2?

[@SavanaT]

Mr. Hunter has been calling for a melt up since 2022. It can very well happe, but it may not happen till 2025... Impossible to say.. The timing is key, but nobody seems to have that correct ❤

[@gianfrancobergagna4024]

Nobody have the possibility to know what will happen in the markets, but David ideas are not bad!

[@glenh4971]

In my view, because 2024 is an election year we stand a chance of some insane events happening. Mr. Hunter believes this too so he is guessing about the stock market melt up.

[@graceamsterdam5404]

That is why knowing your ‘cues that introduce the next stage in the scenario’ can be very helpful. Not easy though.

[@x1k790]

Aren’t we melting up already? ATHs! We gonna rage in 24! Printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 😂

[@etsa2008]

he has been constantly wrong from 2021. yet arrogant

[@scott701230]

I think his case for lower inflation and lower crude oil prices is out the window, superseded by geopolitics, several war fronts opened by the USA, which means more spending on the military, and high crude prices means higher inflation, blockade of the Red Sea means high product prices at the retail level. US is still spending like drunken sailor, which will push up stocks. Look at the lumber prices.

[@davecollins8136]

Next up - David Hunter gives it to Noel Lee - and they both like it

[@FerallHog]

😂😂

[@farmerdude3578]

Who’s Katie?

[@memisko1]

S&P going up 50% and reaching 7000 would turn the stock market into casino. It wouldn’t bode well for financial stability.

[@Adam-ey3ud]

If this happens Blackrock will for sure own everything lol

[@priyamd4759]

When currency has neither value nor cost to carry, valuations as measured in that currency cease to be an argument. Soon all Americans are going to be Zimbabwe Trillionaires.

[@Carnivorelion]

Meltups happen suddenly with sharp increases. What we've had so far hasn't been a meltup except for that one week in December. I might argue that that was the meltup and it wasn't much of one. He's already wrong on the inflation numbers so his prediction is pushed out so he's far too early in his prediction. I think the meltup happens when we get close to interest rate cuts which probably won't happen for several months and it will be very short lived. I'm not hopeful for a rally but I do believe he's right about a crash.

[@rodneydias9586]

I always listen when David talks

[@user-vq8rv8pc1x]

KZbin comes with 2x the same 3 min. long advert. No way to watch this, so sorry. Please find another outlet.

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

Watch it. You will be glad 😀 you did.

[@moa3810]

I wonder if this gentleman has made money on his own forecasts in the past 6-12 months? I doubt it.

[@TheSwift121]

David Hunter. I’ve learned so much from him this last year. He is a truth teller among so many other convincing, but wrong analyst

[@dinaahmed4097]

This melt up he spoke about over and over was timed according to him end of 2023. Now he pushed the date, again, or this is just an old video reposted

[@davecollins8136]

It’s a mushroom’s market - kept in the dark and fed a healthy portion of BS

[@vrag111]

He is wrong, SPY going to 10k. This is when everybody has platform to speak

[@hablemostorah3086]

7000? No wonder why this channel is called WTF finance.

[@istvanpraha]

The "cash on the sidelines" talking point is tired. I have alot of that cash on the sidelines and it is because I can't find anything of value to invest in. I don't just invest in stuff for no reason,

[@maxwolf8055]

Everyone should buy more banking stocks as they will go bust very soon 😂

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

...and get bailouts and bonuses

[@brandonmesser2503]

Stock market is not the economy

[@bethvandereems8021]

Does Dave still see microchips as a rising market going into the melt up?

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

Yup

[@bethvandereems8021]

@@user-lb8bg6kj9m please tell me if you think the expiration of the BTFP 3/11/24 and the ensuing possibility of global bank failures effects your melt up prediction?

[@whatsupwhatsup457]

This rally will bring the entire world’s 🌎 economy to its knees 😢. It’s so serious

[@Denniswen01]

No, next month...o no next month... bla, bla blas

[@MillennialRescueOrg]

More likely April….

[@mccarthyti]

why does he keep raising his melt up forecast? his first one was the best. he called for 4600 in 2020.

[@jacknaneek1681]

This quack again? How does he keep getting airtime?

[@tombox2759]

LOL opinions are like assholes everyone has one butt few have real data...

[@33sosa85]

Old man is gonna have to pay for his sins

[@gianfrancobergagna4024]

Which one boy!

[@leefeegreenz]

He's sinning by giving his opinion?

[@dougtrvl888]

This guy is out of his mind ! 🥴 We have entered a new Bull Market 📈, but this will be multi years ( 2-5 yrs). The most we see by end of 2024 is 5300-5500

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

New bull market? When did the old one even stop. It's been one big bull market since 2008 propped up by money printing, debt and who knows what.

[@bdek68]

These forecasts are ludicrous! You will be lucky to get to 5000 but it’s going to 3000 first. Global recession will be far worse than anyone is anticipating

[@fedcba810]

Govt high debt means nothing😅 really

[@jamesvr3527]

This guy is one of the biggest clowns on wall street. Always talks about cycles but has zero input to back it. Watch out when following this guy, he is getting views and followers by making calls that are too good to be true.

[@michaeleichenberg8618]

No I don't agree with his predictions. The reason is pretty simple. He started making these claims back in 2022. The S&P would go to 6,000 and then drop 70-80%. David provides no detailed analysis to back his claims and he reminds me of the kid who cried wolf. I could sit here and say I believe the S&P will hit 6,200 this year and have just as much to stand on as he does with his predictions. Because that is what they are. Predictions without basis. The stock market is a game of musical chairs and the big difference with the market vs the real game is there are millions of people playing and very few chairs. At the end of the day, when a billion dollars of buying can create 20 Billion of value, you know there is a problem.

[@shooter.mcgavin]

7000 on the S & P with 37 trillion in debt, private credit default soaring, banks losing money, two world conflicts, and a recession looming? This guy has the intelligence of a house plant 😆

[@TangoBinAlsheed]

You're right. SPX 10,000 more likely

[@GoogleHerouxMA]

He doesn’t know the top and cannot exactly predict a price, we are about to drive 5% higher and likely crash. I discount the 7k entirely and let’s check at end of year.

[@user-lb8bg6kj9m]

Has the market ever crashed without euphoria first?

[@vincentmurphy9252]

This guys a bozo could call a 1 horse race

[@daveandpaige6471]

He probably voted for Biden