Leak ALERT. Is Folding Second Pair TOO Nitty?

[@DanielStillMusic]

The analysis content with Chris is great, thanks.

[@uggibugg95]

Wow, haven't really ever though about what Chris said at the end about getting more to showdown with for example 78s, because villain is checking the turn too much with KQs, ATs, etc. Interesting way to look at it!

[@splitsuit]

Cheers!

[@conephompany]

how can he confer villain is checking too much with those types of hands?

[@ThePokerBank]

@@conephompany it's because if they are ONLY betting this size with top pair type hands we know they can't be betting as frequently enough as they need to given the size. Their size locks them into a range we can balance against no matter what (by calling with hands like TT here).

[@eugenewalter3170]

Hey there Mr. Sweeney!!! I wrote in a couple of years ago about the amazing uptick in my play/results as a result of your channel and videos. Covid has put a kibosh on live play but we are starting up again. I appreciate your time and effort in putting together all of these amazingly helpful videos!! Whenever I feel something wrong with my game/decisions, I find the videos that address what I'm looking for and study. Thank you Sir!!!

[@splitsuit]

You are very welcome Eugene! Nice job putting in the time and effort to study things out for yourself =)

[@djalextnt]

You're A Great Poker Mind James. Very Mindful. Thank You For Taking The Time In Creating This Video and Sharing You're WonderFul Knowledge. All The Love, All The Power From Québec, Canada.

[@splitsuit]

Thanks Alex!

[@Md1982IT]

The duece on the turn makes me think it didn't change much apart from bringing in a back door flush draw. So basically if we were ahead on the flop, we would be ahead on the turn,or the other way around

[@RevJim22]

The Leak ALERT videos done by James and Chris are the most helpful videos that I have come across. Please keep producing these.

[@smith899]

Splitsuit, good morning!! Question- my husband and I play a lot of poker at a place that could best be described as 70%+ old white men. Super tight! Limp with AK, but will call a small raise. They play all Ax to the flop, provided no more than 3x preflop raise has happened, and fold to a post flop raise if no A flopped. Rarely raise pre-flop. And IF they raise after flop, get out of the hand, they have the nuts. I am learning how to play this table, but what advice would you give? I want to learn how to play what you are teaching and I am studying it and learning it. But to be honest, IMO, it just won’t work on these players. At an 8 person table, 5-6 of the other players are OWG playing only top 7-8% of hands, it is very difficult to play with a range of even 25%. I did just place in a local tourney (final table out of 450 entries), so I am learning how to play them. My strategy was to limp (or small 2x raise) like they do with maybe 15% of hand range in early position and 25% in late position, and make small raises when I have something good. If I do not have the nuts or second nuts by the river, I do not make a big bet or call one. Again, this helped me get to the final table, but is there a better why to play this group? I cannot find anything on KZbin addressing a table full of nitty players. Thanks!!!

[@saulh7773]

Question for Chris: I downloaded the GTO+ free trial and am thinking of buying the full version. My available RAM shows as around 3.5-4.0 (yours shows as 3.3 GB in this vid). I e-mailed the creator and he said my available RAM might be on the low side (also I only have a dual core laptop as opposed to the recommended quad core). Assuming your available RAM is typically in this range, are you happy enough with the performance of the program and the speed/time it takes to complete solves to recommend it?

[@lovetitleist69]

I like your new presentation. Great job.

[@hymnofashes]

3-bet pre all the time. As played, I would be tempted to raise turn. Villain's bet sizing is weak. There are lots of draws. If he holds KK here, is he going to bet half-pot, and then half pot again when the turn puts up another draw? He doesn't want to see aces or hearts or tens or basically any card other than a king. Villain is likely drawing himself. Maybe has A3 of hearts himself. If he does have a strong hand, we have 6 outs to improve to set or straight. And we can follow through with a large river bluff if the river is a heart.

[@dougmccuskerpoker]

Nice explanation, Chris love your thoughts.

[@ThePokerBank]

(Chris here), thanks Doug!

[@MCFoultier]

So we just fold 99 vs an utg raise?

[@ThePokerBank]

If we were following a strict GTO model with no room for exploitative plays we would yes, in practice you will often allow yourself deviations like flatting only a weak range (including hands like 99) in a passive small stakes game where our remaining opponents are unlikely to 3-bet squeeze a wide range. Using a strict 3-bet or GTO model allows you to simplify and avoid considerations like that!

[@rickvaughn6]

So sizing matters?

[@seanupton709]

If you are only 3betting co vs utg, what about set mining and calling suited connectors? Hands that can make the nuts against a strong range?

[@ThePokerBank]

Set mining is a bit of an outdated concept, it assumes that your opponent will make enough mistakes postflop to compensate for you making a mistake preflop. With a more GTO oriented approach we put together a full cohesive range that is protected which means reducing weak holdings that can are vulnerable to lots of preflop and postflop aggression. Very low pairs and suited connectors tend to make up a small % of these ranges (you don't call 100% of combos). It's up to you to decide which approach is appropriate, if you have that postflop edge and your opponents are passive, then calling a wide range can be justified but if you're wrong you're losing EV!

[@seanupton709]

@@ThePokerBank fair ! Currently playing micro mtts so as of now, set mining is likely profitable as players will open AA utg and be willing to get it in for 90bb on the flop regardless of the run out! Thanks for the response :)

[@emilepelletier8176]

I am no poker pro, but it seems incredible to me that this graph tells you to fold 9-9 preflop in that spot...

[@bubblewhip382]

If you are deciding to play a call on the top of your calling range, or the bottom of the 3 bet range, you better have a plan on what the scenario will be when you are calling down the line. If you decide to call on a c-bet with a second pair, why are you folding to a half pot mostly bricked river with maybe a flush draw? I think "callers" don't understand that a percentage of the time you WILL lose the pot because you are getting valued out by over pairs or top pair, but it needs to be balanced that part of the time you are making hero calls by AK AQ KQ overdraws. If you aren't willing to go down that line, 3 bet preflop and stop playing the game you aren't willing play to the end.

[@evadecaptcha]

I have started 3-betting more with a balanced range (my previous 3-bet stat was about 5%), and I did find that it was much easier to play post flop, and gives a stronger range to bluff with on the flop. I used to only 3-bet with AQ+ and QQ+ (sometimes JJ).

[@Betman400]

I really like this kind of analysis! I hope there is more coming

[@splitsuit]

There is =)

[@tobiasgwiggner759]

Why do Tens with an heart always call? Dont we want him to have a heart draw?

[@alphabett66]

If villian only continues with TP+, and flush draws only, all tens have plenty of immediate equity. The heart only lowers the equity of TT to 25, enough to continue no problem.

[@alphabett66]

The equity model is kind of shit in most cases, this time it functions as intended.

[@tobiasgwiggner759]

But if we have the ten of hearts it is more likely he has a value hand than a draw right? And yes we still want to call but wouldnt our hand be better if we didnt have the heart cause his range contains more bluffs? Im sorry if i didnt get your point...

[@alphabett66]

@@tobiasgwiggner759 Hero needs 24% equity to continue. 25% is more than 24%.

[@alphabett66]

@@tobiasgwiggner759 You're thinking right. TT without a heart has 27% equity, but it doesn't matter because TT should continue anyway. Blockers only matter if they matter, here --blockers don't matter.

[@jeffstock79]

Do you have any sense how many BB/100 to expect playing close to GTO in a solid game? Are there areas where against real people, you would always deviate From GTO (for example overbluffing paired flops that people fold without the trips a lot)

[@ThePokerBank]

You need HIGH confidence (sample size, data, etc.) to deviate from GTO but for example we know overwhelmingly the average poker player plays too many hands. This is very reliable. Similarly, when you have hundreds of HUD stats on a tight player, you infer the reverse (overly tight) for JUST preflop play. GTO is the baseline, adjust based on high quality data, reads and sample sizes.

[@ThePokerBank]

Another example, facing small bet sizes, many players can't adjust to this simply because it's complicated. It's safe to assume most players will be overly tight and passive against this.

[@jeffstock79]

@@ThePokerBank agree, especially at lower stakes. I lead (very small) from the blinds and check raise semi-bluffs way more than GTO and it seems to be fine because people don't want to show the garbage or they respect even though they have the range advantage. GTO floats almost all of the small bet leads but real players don't, and when they call, they fold (more than 1/3) to a half pot turn bet, so it's still EV+ it seems. You make great videos btw, thank you.

[@shoaibsuleman2779]

Great Video 👍🏼

[@splitsuit]

Thanks Shoaib!

[@yllwmtrcstr]

What if we 3bet pre to 10 and villian 4bets to 30 or 35?

[@ThePokerBank]

You would be folding most of the time (a GTO solve would have a small % of lower pairs calling for board coverage).

[@MicskiDK]

Agree with 3bet pf. But as played: Why not raise the turn? Hero has a vulnerable pair at this point and villain could fold some of those AJ, KJ and A9 type hands but call flush and straight draws. Then decide on river.

[@chrisvillalobos2053]

Possibly we only raise here when we don't have backdoors?

[@splitsuit]

If you know villain is the type to bet/fold top pair or QQ type hands on the turn, sure. Otherwise, hero doesn't rep tons of legit hands and if villain calls the turn with one pair, they are getting another decent price to call with it again on the river...

[@ThePokerBank]

A very reasonable thought, the solver recommends bluff raising A8s backdoor flush draw and hands like 98, JT that block sets as well as straights which does look a bit better but a great instinct that we could be bluff raising this type of hand.

[@conephompany]

how can you widen villain's turn cb range based on his turn sizing? he only bet half pot so his range is therefore wider? this thinking seems very exploitable.

[@ThePokerBank]

(Chris here) it's actually GTO-thinking, if you reduce your bet size you must find more value bets with the correct ratio of bluffs to balance. If you don't your play is exploitable and calling is even more favorable because either you have too few bets overall or too many bluffs when you bet.

[@conephompany]

@@ThePokerBank are you correlating bet size with hand strength? you mentioned a larger size would be a fold.

[@niels8195]

@@conephompany a bigger size is more polarizing than a smaller size

[@antonios4553]

I thought I was subscribed this whole time! What the..... you the man! Micro stakes analyses are awesome. I wish I knew how to find the game thrilling at that level, even if my bankroll demands that I start there. #theparadoxesofnl

[@splitsuit]

Cheers Antonio!

[@CARNA6E]

I wouldn't go clubbing with the guy who folds tens on this turn

[@dontesmith]

Lol

[@jasonsmith4114]

I wouldn't even considerate folding in this spot, but I'm probably too fishy I don't know. It's clearly a call, like any other play makes zero sense.

[@slowfuse]

if a 10 comes off on the river though and are you really going to be that stoked about it?

[@gabrielciuclaru5086]

On paper they all good , online you just get coolered with riggs by superusers accounts.

[@MicskiDK]

They could also just be fortune tellers. I got 4bet 100bb and stacked by 87o the other day. -12 buy-ins below EV.

[@gabrielciuclaru5086]

@@MicskiDK No m8 , ultimately i sign players with new accounts and how many hands i lose by favourite vs this accounts especially when they underdog preflop 80%-90% , the result is staggering i lose more than 60 % when i should win 80%-90% equity vs same player this is not real poker.

[@JackFate61]

name the site

[@blueknight2787]

Y’all say like to much

[@Project_rounder]

Speak too fast

[@Arabsummer]

[@Arabsummer]