Let's Do Some Poker EV Examples Together... | SplitSuit

The best way to learn a poker concept like EV is to do some examples. So SplitSuit pulls out the poker math workbook and goes through some intermediate and straightforward expected value homework with you.
If you are brand-new to EV, we suggest watching both of these videos first:
· The Basics Of Poker EV: • The Basics Of Poker EV...
· The Advanced EV Formula: • Advanced Poker EV Form...
Even if math isn't your favorite subject, a little poker math knowledge and practice can give you a huge edge. The concept of EV, even though it can be tricky to calculate precisely in real-time, keeps you focused on making plays that rate to make you money at the end of the day. The more +EV plays you can make, and the more -EV plays you can delete from your playbook, the more profitable you will be at the end of the day.
Follow along and happy exploring!
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[@DJWany]

This is without a doubt the best poker education channel on KZbin. Cheers.

[@mr.gatame6187]

Can someone explain why he didn't put the %C in the equation when he did problem #2? I'm confused on that part

[@aidascharasauskas7549]

EV:Moderate is probably the most confusing chapter so far for me, as the set mining example inputs are not reflective of the formula posted in the process description. You also, as you've mentioned in other comments, used shortcuts both in the explanation and in the answer key for the calculations, which, I believe, have not been done in previous chapters, which I am not a fan of, because for a complete beginner it's already confusing enough without any calculation shortcuts. Obviously I'm a bit overly critical here, but I believe it's worth giving feedback in case you plan on releasing something new in the future. Despite this, I am enjoying the workbook very much, thank you for that.

[@zdravkopetkov1404]

What about the situations when you gonna flop a set and still lose your stack...should not that be included in the equation??

[@firstname2072]

Yes but the you get rid of the tomato from the chicken soup so it makes up for the rabbit down the hole

[@dylanh6478]

It was included

[@fldrone-3dmodeling193]

I don’t know if you’re gonna actually read this comment or not but I am a beginner poker player. The whole reason why I wanna play poker is for the math and learning how to think critically. Yeah I want to win money but money comes and goes. I just want to make positive EV decisions and let luck do its own thing.

[@ThePokerBank]

That's a great reason for playing poker and exactly the right starting mindset. Have you done the workbook yet? If not, I highly suggest it: www.splitsuit.com/poker-preflop-math-workbook

[@ismailemir8077]

It’s great to see how to calculate ev. But the most important thing is how we can estimate the Equity. Because that’s the main driver of EV. How can estimate my Equity by taking into consideration my hand, the ranges, the bet sizes and board textures

[@ThePokerBank]

The best way is just with drilling and off-table exploration. That's how you identify the patterns and can more easily estimate within a reasonable margin in real-time.

[@wiktormilo4772]

I love it! Simple, well explained and very useful! More of it would be nice! Thx 🙏

[@BrainGainzOfficial]

Love the math videos lol 🤓 thanks!

[@splitsuit]

Anytime Brain!

[@tomohawk52]

In these close cases, rake matters a lot.

[@Its__Good]

Playing any form of live poker is always -EV at the moment!

[@rady7273]

that hopsital bill neutralizes all winnings

[@kushaljaju]

Hi, in the preflop workbook answer sheet for moderate EV, you have not put in “C” anywhere, and have changed the W% based on the situations (eg: if setmining expecting to win their stack 50% of the time, you have made W% 0.06 instead of 0.12). However, the 50% is for him losing his stack and not for the 6.50 we would win.. In a nutshell im very confused about this lol. Big fan of your content.🙏🏽

[@ThePokerBank]

Interesting timing on this comment since I just added a new spreadsheet to my pack titled "Simple Setmining EV" that will be right up your alley! www.splitsuit.com/free-poker-spreadsheets

[@a9108118]

I love your speech. Thank u very much.

[@chrisnewtownnsw]

Hey James or anyone just to clarify to see if i'm doing this right. If turn pot is 100 and hero jams all in for half pot (50) with 20% equity and he expects villain to fold 50% does this give hero 45 ev?

[@splitsuit]

Yup, EV = +45 in your example =)

[@isentient666]

Hmmm. Flopping a set comes out to be 12% if you start out with a pocket pair. Right?

[@ThePokerBank]

Flopping a set or better*, yup

[@mitchellghea623]

Where is the 12% on the set coming from ? Is that a general % you hit a set with pocket pairs ?

[@ThePokerBank]

It's a general number, yup. Each pocket pair flops a set or better around 12% of the time

[@MyNguyen-xu4oj]

I am a litlle confused in the $W part. So in the first example, the $W only counts opponent's money ($100 from their stack), however, in the extended example, when we count $W, we do count $6.50 pot (which also include our money). So what is the correct answer? Do we count our money in the expected money winning part?

[@chieffanLJ27]

The money in the pot belongs to the pot. It no longer belongs to you. So when you redo calculations on later streets, you still have your stack, which is your money since you havent wagered it. Your villain has their stack, which no one can win until it is wagered. The pot, however, you can win, which includes any bets on all streets. Yes, it contains money you used to have, but you dont any longer. Also, on future streets, you dont calculate previous actions. EV changes street to street, so when you say, recalculate on the turn, its a brand new problem. So you calculate what youre putting in the pot, to win what your villain puts in the pot, plus the entire pot, since the pot is sitting in the middle for anyone to win, regardless of who it belonged to before it ended up in the pot. This is also what equity calculates. It is your share of the pot. If you have 40% chance to win a 100$ pot, if you ran this hand in a simulation a million times, you will win on average 40% of the time. Equity is like equity in say owning a home, its your share of the money. Its how much you "own", which has nothing to do with how much you put in/how much was previously yours, just how often your winning, recalculated on every street, regardless of previous action. Sorry if this was long winded or confusing, i tried to be as thorough as possible in trying to explain it, because it is a sort of abstract concept. Edit: by the way, this is why money wagered is immediately included in the pot. Say youre calculating pot odds on a call, where V bet 100 into 100 pot. The pot is now 200, youre calling 100 to win 200. The money that V wagered is no longer theirs, even on this current street. He bet the 100, so it is now part of the pot, up for anyone to win. If you raise and he folds, you won 200, since he gave up his equity to the pot by folding. He now has 0% equity, and you have 100%, since he folded, meaning you get 100% of the pot right there without going to showdown. I hope that makes sense!

[@MyNguyen-xu4oj]

@@chieffanLJ27 Thank you so much for the detail reply. I go get that when the money in the pot, it's no longer mine. It's just the word choices of the example questions make me confused. So in all the examples in the videos, we all calculate EV preflop right? So the 100 we win in the first example will include 50 from our stack and 50 from opponent's stack? Do I understand it right?

[@chieffanLJ27]

@@MyNguyen-xu4oj you can calculate equity but its better to do pot odds, imo. Equities run super clowe together preflop.

[@MyNguyen-xu4oj]

@@chieffanLJ27 I am talking about expected value (EV).

[@chieffanLJ27]

@@MyNguyen-xu4oj My Nguyễn if @splitsuit sees this, correct me if im wrong. i see what your saying. I have a habit of interchanging equity and EV. The setmine is a preflop calculation with postflop assumptions, like hitting a set and stacking off, and winning 100% of the time you hit a set, which is unrealistic, but good to know. Thats why its better to setmine loose players instead of tight. The reason i thought of equity is because the %win and %lose is based on equity. In the setmine problem, you have 12% to hit a set or better, so were assuming if you dont have a set, you lose the hand, which is fair if you hold something like 22-55. Lets say youre calculating how often AK is going to win. Its between like 87% to lose against AA, to like 60 to 80% with 2 random cards. Against a standard range, like 60+%. Hell, against 87o, AK is like 63% to win. So which number do you plug in for preflop? Its a pretty wide range. Its difficult without specific scenarios, but possible. Lets say preflop you have JJ with 100bb. TAG Villain bets 3bb, you 3 bet to 9bb, he 4 bets to 30bb. You can calculate ev on a shove for 100bb with the assumption hes only calling with AA or KK. You know you have 18.5% to win if called, and you assume hes going to fold like 70% of the time based on his 4 bet range. You can calculate that. You can with AK as well, but you have to make range assumptions. Say whats the ev if you hit an A or K, youll win like 70% of the time, and auto stack off. You hit an A or K ~33% of the time, and 70% of that 33% you win a stack. So yes you can do EV pre, and a lot of calculations are good to know, like setmining. In terms of for actual play, knowing the ev of postflop situations probablt helps more imo. Someone can correct me if im wrong

[@bin4ry_d3struct0r]

I live for the mathy elements of poker.

[@bbk6540]

I'm really confused by why we do the "full payoff first" in the Moderate EV example. Because in the formula, that is supposed to be the times villain folds (F x $POT) - so F = 0.12 * 0.5 * $6.50. And then C is just left blank. And then I'm extra confused because if we use the spreadsheet, it doesn't really work for this example since it automatically calculates L%. Is there a way to think about this question to input the correct values? Or is this just a question that doesn't really fit the formula exactly and I just need to think about the big picture and the formula was just a guideline?

[@splitsuit]

Right, take the big picture here. It sounds like you understand the major pieces (for instance, the F calculation up top), so don't overthink this =)

[@cjparrott]

this workbook is awesome

[@ThePokerBank]

Cheers CJ!

[@BJ-ff5pe]

I've got the workbook and it does not explain the formula for moderate EV at all well enough. It says how it works for preflop all ins and what C, F mean for that scenario, but the first examples are set mining, not preflop all ins so how are we supposed to apply the formula in that situation?

[@BJ-ff5pe]

Just gone over this again in the workbook. It definitely does not explain the concept or equation well at all. I don't know how you can write an EV formula for preflop all ins then use a setmine as an example question

[@splitsuit]

@@BJ-ff5pe Do you have a specific question? I tried to explain how to use the formula in the video, albeit with a shortcut. F is 50%*12% (where 50% is how often you get paid off and 12% is how often you flop a set). The winning C then takes the same approach with C being 50% and W% is 12% (again, for how often you flop a set). And the remaining outcome is 88% for the times you do not flop a set.

[@checkhillable]

ty

[@mcpartridgeboy]

im confused, 12-450 is 438 isnt it ? how did you get 6 ? sorry im kind of new to this but it doesnt seem to make sence, what am i not getting here ? edit, 4.50 not 450, ok this makes sence now ! yeah im an idiot, but im leaving the coment incase anyobne else gets confused !

[@mateineagu5896]

10% of 100 is 10$ 90$ of 5$ is 4.5$ Therefore 10$-4.5$ is exactly 5.5$. You said 6.5$. It is a big difference from 7.6$ to 5.5$. Or am I missing something? Thanks.

[@mateineagu5896]

90% of 5$ is 4.5$

[@splitsuit]

That's what happens when I record math videos at 3am lol. You are correct that about 10-4.5 =) But assuming this is $1/$2, that's a 1BB difference, so not earth-shattering for a pure eyeball

[@Soto100]

0,12*100 - 0,88×5 = 12 - 4,4 = 7,6

[@YoTube69]

7:25 how can you win less e.g $6.5 after investing more meaning $10? the only thing I think of is auto all in. I don't get it

[@jimsmith1856]

He means you profit on the bet by $7.60. You bet $10 and win $17.60. I think.

[@Its__Good]

I think he made a mistake. You're right that the pot has to be at least $20

[@splitsuit]

You are 100% correct that the $6.5 number is too small. Not sure how I missed that!

[@jimsmith1856]

This doesn't account for the times your pair win unimproved. Or does it?

[@splitsuit]

It does not. It's overly-simplified =)

[@FridaandLuna]

5:10 woohoo! I got one right!

[@splitsuit]

Nice job!

[@OleguitoSwagbucks]

2:45 Are you sure you win $100 and not $105+dead money?

[@iaadadel]

Mistake i guess u made in the beginning %win *mw-%lost +ml

[@herrwedding]

I need such a beard 🦷🤟🏽

[@GetMeThere1]

But this is where I have problems with these "calculations." Take the set mining example. It assumes you win the guy's entire stack when you make your set. But that is NOWHERE NEAR TRUE! You will sometimes, but you'll win less lots of times -- and sometimes you'll lose YOUR stack with your set. The calculation depends on your assumptions -- which are VERY speculative. To me that means the calculation is really worthless.

[@Its__Good]

SplitSuit - Unfortunately your setmining examples are a bit wrong as one option is that the pot you win after the flop is less than your investment pre-flop. Obviously it has to be at least twice as much.

[@splitsuit]

ahh, yes, you are 100% correct. Not sure how I missed that!

[@Pluto-vn8tw]

Im so confused

[@karlinchina]

Set mining is overrated in general. This shows us why.

[@tomohawk52]

Set mining is amazing if you are in late position and you have four callers in front of you, which is pretty common in the live 1/2 at my local casino. Agreed that set mining is pretty terrible HU.

[@paolo.cannizzaro]

Lol it's impossible to use this in the real world, reason why you sell your textbook instead of actually playing poker and winning millions of dollars

[@ThePokerBank]

Don't you think by working through representative problems between sessions that you'd make improved decisions during sessions?

[@jeffryglenn7024]

Watched the first example and just laughed. Aggression, position not mentioned. SPR not mentioned. Player type not mentioned. Even the math is bad because my set will not always win and rarely will entire stacks go into the pot. DO NOT PLAY POKER LIKE THIS!

[@Its__Good]

Jeffry - These examples are purely to teach the very specific subject of calculating rough EV. Splitsuit has multiple videos where he explains in details all the other things you mention.

[@splitsuit]

I never suggested playing poker like this. It's a simplified math example.

[@jeffryglenn7024]

@@splitsuit because the vast majority of NL hands never reach a showdown, initiative, position and playing are more important important than equity. Fold equity is more important than hand equity. SPR is more important than hand equity. If I'm playing a solid range vs my opponent's likely range, I have 30% without even hitting the flop, unless my starting hand was a polarized bluff. Don't play poker expecting to flop hands. Play poker to expect your opponents to FOLD when they can't continue against your correctly sized bets.

[@Its__Good]

@@jeffryglenn7024 You still need an understanding of EV to play poker . . . .

[@splitsuit]

Jeffry Glenn nobody is arguing with you 😁

[@michaeltrumph121]

Dude, u need to shave your beard, it doesn't suit you at all. Thanks 4 the video.