Living in a Post Cycle World | TCAF 161

[@TheCompoundNews]

Thanks to Public for sponsoring this episode! Visit: www.public.com/compound to lock in a 6% or higher yield with a Bond Account.

[@darrenritsick4219]

You guys have improved at allowing your guest to talk and letting us hear what they think more and what you think less

[@MBoyer-ng6ok]

One of my favorite Compound guests. The trio covered a really wide range of economic/markets topics.

[@Ryan_Tinney]

Wonderful guest and discussion. Once again The Compound bringing the absolute best content out there.

[@MJLU280]

David Kelly has been pretty much spot on this decade while the rest of JPM has been wrong and way too bearish. Always enjoy his take thanks guys. 🍀

[@themusic6808]

Fantastic interview. I could listen to David Kelly and Tom Lee all day every day.

[@voicification]

My favorite guest … (sorry Tom Lee fans who is also legendary but Dr Kelly is number 1) … is back!

[@JTIrons]

JC's charts, though.

[@voicification]

@@JTIrons He is Top 5 for me.

[@cliffpeebles9705]

Credit to Duncan for taking the magazine cover shot of Josh. It's the talent behind the scenes that makes the difference.

[@microgx9265]

What a great informative guest! great show guys.

[@ricardopoupada4091]

Best best guest . Been waiting for him to come back, one of the smartest guys on Wall Street, too bad his own very short weekly podcast is script read at 100mph, but I can listen to him all day. Make him a regular if you can.

[@KuchiniFallinFromDaSky]

Great show. This guy is the real deal.

[@davidwysocki1004]

Another great show! Thank you, Josh and Michael! And a huge shout-out to Dr. David Kelly, whose comments and observations were illuminating and educational on every level.

[@martytayman9138]

One of your best pods. A ton of useful information.

[@Nick_Cowles11b]

I will ALWAYS refer to inflation cooling like chocolate chip cookies out of the oven now. lol.

[@caronlajokee5641]

Hmmm

[@jimbojimbo6873]

I don’t get what it means

[@gianmariamalmesi4133]

A nice crescendo that finally get to the stuff that matter toward the end, not much that I didn't know before but interestingly put together in a conversational way, well done. Enjoy the silence

[@ThaboHermanus]

Always love how the guests (The Friends) make me think with TCAF. David Kelly touched on what has worried me about the Fed and their fight against inflation that did not “break anything”. I have been wondering, what happens when they try and stimulate the economy and their actions again have no material effect. David has called out that that has happened already, because we have all forgotten that before all this and post GFC, The Fed was trying to trigger a bit of inflation and they couldn’t. Has The Fed lost its traditional power?

[@michaelpafiti2141]

Josh is the 🐐🐐🐐

[@xothierryxo]

I would have asked him why JPM came up with a 4200 target for the S&P500 by year end.

[@rossofilmsinternational8625]

This guys was a snoozeeeeeeeeeee geeeez

[@FARZADkazemimostaghim]

Hat Spaß gemacht zuzuschauen!

[@aj8599]

Awesome guest. Let's gooooooo

[@Dollarman4]

Guys what an amazing show like every week!! Bravo to both and to amazing Dr Kelly 👏🏼👌🏼

[@rjastronomo2288]

Josh has swagger but seems humble too. Hard to accomplish in Wall Street

[@rossofilmsinternational8625]

Josh’s is so authentic. The best !

[@Hibachi_Dru]

Had to come back and watch this one

[@Adam-h5y1g]

Not sure what your deal is with with the Mag 7 lately, but those companies know how to provide shareholders a return on their investment and the value they provide to people around the world is unmatched. Especially not by some random company most people have never heard of from the 493 or Russell. The Mag 7 buy back a ton of stock, their products are used by millions, if not billions of people around the world, they are leading the digital transformation to an AI driven world, etc. etc. From the chart you showed, Mag 7 margins are 3X the 493 and if anything the 493's margins are normalizing against their longer-term average. That's not bullish for the 493. It just proves they have limited runway ahead of them compared to the Mag 7. The 493 are having a quarterly moment, that moment will pass.

[@ericfrith6358]

Great guest. Makes so much sense. What's the podcast he mentioned at the end called?

[@andrews57217]

Silence as a favorite 😂 respect

[@GreyAndSheep]

I'd like to see them talk about a Nasdaq-100 divided by S&P500 chart. You can see that over the past 40 years, there have only been brief periods where the S&P500 outperforms the Nasdaq-100. Obviously, the Nasdaq-100 saw an 80% drawdown because the tech bubble was so inflated. But if you have stops at moving averages or slightly below the moving averages, a portfolio that has invested in QQQ will have outperformed the S&P500 by over 400% since 1985, and by over 200% since 2003. They talked about other sectors potentially catching up to the magnificent 7 or to large cap tech in general. However, I don't see any reason that shows that international stocks, bonds, financials, industrials, energy, or other sectors should catch up to large cap tech. We aren't going back to 1950 anytime soon.

[@Mikey-T-Abroad]

All the episodes are always great. This is easily the best one ever. Sorry JC, Tom Lee, and Tim Dillon fans lol

[@marywilson7712]

Great show

[@angelorao3750]

Great show! For mortgage rates: Is there any benefit to allowing the portability of existing low mortgage rates to a new more expensive home? In my view, this portability approach, (creating a new blended mortgage rate), may encourage more existing homeowners to sell and move. In turn, inventory may increase, potentially opening up the Real Estate market to first time Buyers. Parameters: -Same lender -New home must be more expensive with a larger mortgage for rate blending -A lender fee (sort of like refinancing fee) would be applied. What are your thoughts?

[@simonsuddons5214]

Great point about a weaker dollar would benefit US manufacturering and then the benefit would be experienced later.

[@JTIrons]

You can say "strong dollar" and still devalue it. The dollar's strength isn't in its purchasing power, it's in its economic power.

[@rossofilmsinternational8625]

This guys was the worst guest they had. With JP Morgan year end target at 4700 🤣🤣🤣

[@Agent77X]

No longer market high, gave back everything from yesterday gain! Glad I am still on the sidelines and park my investments in bank saving certificates after hiring a CFA in 2022!😊

[@dinosaurdude5668]

La Croix looks good on table.

[@BitsOfInterest]

Goes well with the "color by the foot" books 😜

[@idonotlikethismusic]

“Post cycle world” sounds like something you’d hear at the very tippy top of a cycle before it all comes crashing down

[@bradymiller3397]

100% agree on fiscal and supply disruptions causing inflation. not monetary policy.

[@strategySGD]

iwould love a downtown JB & Michael breakdown on HUM & potential opportunities in the short-term. Looking forward to reading your book JB, congrats 🫡

[@JuiceTradesTV]

Chad?

[@olivierdumoulin9497]

Trump got balls and Asia knows it ….!!!!! Hell yeah….let’s make the Americas ( Canada USA South America ) great again !!!!!!

[@Brian-or2jy]

I'm old enough to remember the last great moderation.

[@alinthemind]

The main problem with housing prices is price or rent control, which limits incentives to build and maintain housing, resulting in a reduced supply. This shortage eventually pushes prices higher, worsening affordability instead of addressing the issue.

[@EtTuSilver]

Excellent episode. I love David Kelly. He sound's nuttier than a squirrel turd at first but the longer you listen to him you realize he really is smarter than nearly any other source on EX-US situations.

[@sameluckyguy]

Great discussion regarding tariffs

[@sanesanyo]

I would disagree with the guest on the Fed has nothing to do with controlling inflation. By giving a forward guidance they force the market to set the interest rate curve which then perpetuates into the rest of the capital markets which then impact the rest of the economy.

[@CPaulBreezy]

The GTTM Godfather! 🤘🏽👏🏽👏🏽🏆🐐

[@skot523]

Someone finally addressed the elephant in the room with housing.

[@sam-brooks]

This guy is so good - Nick Colas vibes

[@pogbastyle5167]

A weekend dollar will be great for tech stocks but how do you weaken dollar

[@mikeolson6382]

I absolutely love ALL of your content, but work on not interrupting your guests. Let em cook.

[@BitsOfInterest]

46:10 do they save so much because they're rich, or are they rich because they save so much? 🤔

[@cliffpeebles9705]

Nailed it! Spoken as a true Compounder!

[@stctjc]

If the IRS increased the tax free exclusion from 250k per person or 500k per couple to something like $500k per person and 1million per couple more homes would hit the market. If they gave me a tax incentive to sell my second home I would be tempted to do it too even though I have very low interest rates. More homes on the market will decrease the cost of the homes.

[@billnipp]

Good stuff

[@wayneatwell7039]

Sounds like they have never heard of India, Japan and Argentina. I made great money on all 3. Only international dud I invested in was Brazil and it was basically flat plus dividend.

[@GreyAndSheep]

I like the podcast but y'all really got work on not interrupting as much

[@zippo0880]

45:28 you’re absolutely right Michael we’re not going back. WE’RE NOT GOING BACK. HARRIS-WALZ 2024

[@stctjc]

An hour of investing content is incredibly scarce. Normally guys like this get 15 seconds to make a point on CNBC and then it's on to the next talking head. Nice show.

[@Marcus_K]

Ways to bring the dollar down: a) Fed keeps lowering interest rates, b) Fed prints lots of money, c) a currency union with Mexico :)

[@bluesky2145]

For him to say inflation has been like a roller coaster with ups and downs but you get off right where you got on is WRONG. Consumer prices, insurance, housing and healthcare are WAY up in price. We are NOWHERE close to where we got on the roller coaster.

[@gjps80]

Yep just one of a few things which had me scratching my head. This guy made little sense to me, but to come on here and see everyone rave on him has me further confused. The rate of inflation may fluctuate, but the rise in prices over time will not come back down to where you got on, even factoring in purchasing power increase after inflation (if any) in any of our realistic lifetimes.

[@bluesky2145]

@@gjps80 these rich people don't have to worry about such minor things like higher prices. They just throw a bunch of numbers around and sing kumbaya that everything's fine

[@stevecatpatrick8056]

I love how the actual solution was danced around when it comes to affordable housing for the younger generations. Basically offered them having to accept a much worse standard of living instead of saying the obvious which is wealth needs to be transferred from the rich generation of old boomers to the poor generation of young who need homes. Old people need to be exposed to the costs of consuming that much housing So they will choose to move, while at the same time first time home buyers need to be given a huge leg up subsidized by those taxes to outcompete those richer generations in the housing market. You can help first-time home buyers by subsidizing them if, And this is the key part that he didn't want to talk about, You remove equally just as much demand by increasing taxes on the other groups who would be buying and competing against them. That way you are not causing inflation by increasing demand, You are changing the composition of who is able to buy. It's incredibly inefficient for your young family-aged people to be priced out of housing they need to have an acceptable societal standard of living to raise a family in, while at the same time The housing with lots of extra room is inefficiently held by seniors that are well past child-rearing age and are net drags on society. Portions of that wealth needs to be tapped in order to be directed towards fixing the housing issues for the younger generations. He's also talking a bit in a circle about how you're not going to get price decreases You need wages to rise, But that also you need immigration because of a labor shortage. Without policy change on taxes to redistribute the wealth You need to keep the labor market tight in order to affect a wealth transfer from old, who don't work anymore, to the young who do.

[@GowthamNatarajanAI]

Redistributing is not right. Its unfair

[@stevecatpatrick8056]

@@GowthamNatarajanAI What kind of twisted definition of unfair do you use? Unfair is gaining or losing based completely on the lottery of life which outweighs your own personal agency. Unfair is not being able to afford a home because the previous generation or two mismanaged the economy and got incredibly greedy without risk management which Crater the housing industry. And then they enacted nimby policy ever since. And all this was done before you were out of high school or even before you were out of diapers. But those choices created the insane prices. Redistribution is literally finding the unfair outcomes and rebalancing them such that the economy is better off and more fair in the process.

[@GowthamNatarajanAI]

@@stevecatpatrick8056Not true. It’s unfair to force people to pay for others. It’s not their fault if someone else cannot afford a home.

[@idonotlikethismusic]

You’re 100% right but what else would you expect from someone who works at JP Morgan. To extend what you’re saying, the USA needs populist, and of course this guest and the hosts oppose populism.

[@idonotlikethismusic]

@@GowthamNatarajanAIyou’re thinking in simplistic and ideological terms. The people who are being forced to oh are those who have gotten their wealth in an unfair way. Redistributing the wealth is only making society fair because those people should never accumulated that much wealth to begin with.

[@makosharksimmo8124]

161 k subscribers in 161 episodes

[@leebarkle1641]

I think this is the best episode I have watched so far. Dr. Kelly pulls no punches. Thank you for all the content you guys provide. m(-_-)m

[@Youngmora1]

I hear you but… we’re in a recession

[@djjones8678]

🔥🔥🔥🔥

[@davidlkleinman]

3% mortgages are similar to double digit mortgages in the 80s. Not normal. That’s not the target.

[@edmundlively8137]

Tariffs are not protective. They do not protect the dock workers. They do not protect the truck drivers and the railroad workers who take the Chinese products from the docks to the consumers and the workers are also consumers who should be protected from tariffs 😮😮😮😮

[@HectorYague]

What does "let the dollar weaken" even mean?! As long as the Treasury needs to finance itself via ever-growing bond issuance, and the USD is the world reserve currency and the Fed doesnt totally intervene the bond market through QE or YCC, then it is the open market what defines the value of the dollar (versus other currencies) through its endless hunger for dollars. Or are you proposing forcing another Plaza Accord, bankrupting your trading allies (aka Japan 1990s) in the process?

[@edwardgiugliano4925]

If you close your eyes sometimes it sounds like you guys are talking to Stewie.

[@thanoskoumpanis9699]

bring but quality manufacturing and stop sweating about the dollar. Simple and resistant for the economy and the future of the US

[@BoilerBall3094]

3

[@kennethchavarria9844]

Michael nice watch omega?

[@jacksonsoundcloud]

“Post-cycle market” is so toppy.

[@abbottmd]

It's about like saying we are at a new permanently high plateau like they said in 1929

[@acardona50]

It is but although I know better I'm still fully invested. Today 3 of my larger holdings got called away as they ran too much and my sold calls hit. Nvidia, Uber and igv all got called away 50,000$ worth. I still have 350000 invested but still that's a lot of cash. So now I have to ask myself do I buy back although this market is getting toppy? The fomo is real. Probably will sell puts close to the money and hope it doesn't keep going up and pulls back some. I would be happy with a 10 percent correction right about now.

[@jacksonsoundcloud]

@@acardona50 There's reasonably priced pockets. Biotech, emerging markets, etc

[@steplaland]

This guy would make a bad trader. He has no evidence of tariffs hurting the economy but makes a case against tariffs.

[@rossofilmsinternational8625]

Agreed. Literally the most incoherent guest that has ever been on this show. Awful

[@rossofilmsinternational8625]

@@anand13 yup that guest sucked

[@mitchjohnson37]

Ireland and the USA are not analogous. What works there works for different reasons than what will work here.

[@mali3490]

Post Cycle!!

[@kirkdogg007]

Whomever is buying the homes in bulk is the problem with home prices. We all know they are but we act like we have a housing shortage. No u know what it really is but u know u can't speak on it.

[@gpsawyer]

Michael saying that the value of all assets is so high because there's too much money chasing too few assets screams one thing to me. TAX THE RICH.

[@stankiah]

How to solve the housing crisis: Lower the interest rates for new builds only.

[@evannicol5548]

I would love to build homes but then I would have to charge $1500++ in Ohio. Rough times to try and add housing

[@alittlecookoo]

"in the world" :)

[@abbottmd]

Just say we are at a permanently high plateau.... So I can sell it all

[@2023gainer]

The Small Caps still delivering Large Gains from Oct Dip-buying. Archer Evtol Jets 4 %..Frey 6 %.. VHAI.. Vocodia 14 %..Blade Evtol Jets 2 %.. Rivian 2 % and more. Xos Trucks.. Nikola.Nkla..Hyln..Hyliion .. BBAI . BFRG.. GFAI and more. Thumbs Up video/ comments. Thanks

[@projectedenable]

Come on guy, keep interest rates at zero and inflation would have done the same thing it did anyway? I dare you to show me where you said that 2 years ago, off the charts hindsight arrogance

[@projectedenable]

And then he says the fed doesn't matter, J Pow can just go play golf. This is the poster child for ivory tower god complex insanity

[@JuiceTradesTV]

I made a similar comment and got called out in the replies. Like imagine keeping rates at 0% then acting like we would still see disinflation in 2024. Straight delusional take from a top wall street guy.

[@andyd4298]

Literally nothing you guys said about the immigration issue was true.

[@TVTV-b3f]

The guy who is late shouldn’t be interjecting himself into a dialogue ESPECIALLY interrupting the main guest!!! Where are the manners????

[@brianbirnbaum9760]

Bullshit. At the very least rates the market fell and made people felt poorer. You can’t tell me Ukraine had a comparable effect. Interest rates are literally the discount rate.

[@GK123]

Post cycle world? Absolutely clueless

[@xothierryxo]

Stop interrupting your guest.

[@KISSMIBUT27]

Can't listen to this guy. The weak dollar statement undermined everything else that he uttered.

[@stevecatpatrick8056]

But that was true? Ignorance on your part if you don't get that honestly.

[@GowthamNatarajanAI]

@@stevecatpatrick8056 The dollar is over 100. its strong now.

[@rossofilmsinternational8625]

This guy was awful complete joke. Worst guest on the show 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[@johnsterling7447]

Click, off

[@rossofilmsinternational8625]

By FAR the most BORING & WORST Guest on Compound and Friends. Josh and Michael amazing as always - this Irish guy was like ‘ Yeah let me say the opposite of everything from inflation to housing‘ 🤣🤣🤣

[@davidkane8573]

Hi…

[@caronlajokee5641]

😂😂😂