Locked in a Pocket pt. 4 When Sets on Three are a Tragedy!

[@TopLevelJiuJitsu]

That cap seems like one you would have advised against taking. It's locked in a pocket with no way out

[@davids8345]

Not necessarily: 1. The blizzards meant there was less territories to take (i.e. easier to get turn 1) and a 1 point hold. 2. Pete had full visibility so he could see if anyone else had capped there. 3. The idea is to take it quickly, build up troops quickly, then snag another cap which is harder to card block. The real issue was Pete took the risk and tried to steal the white cap on turn 1 - it was a coin flip of whether that was going to work out so i don't fault him for it.. But as he said, he just got a lot of bad luck (the initial cap hit, then losing a 75% roll later and white consistently getting sets on 3)

[@alielbekovv]

@@davids8345 Yeah, i agree. If he didnt roll the cap turn one, and tried to take africa, he would outgenerate white anyway and eventaully take their cap.

[@rivercox8172]

The odds of missing both cap hits and white having a set on 3 each time is about 1/300. This is of course ignoring the luck on petes cards, which he was fortunately averagely lucky, but still quite bad luck this game. Its called risk for a reason!

[@timothyfranklin6040]

I got 1/150 (about 0.65%). How'd you get your numbers? (fyi, the odds of a set on three is 42.28%, using 33% chance for a set on 3 got me ~0.32% or 1/300, so I assume that's what you did).

[@acernera]

There was a time before Free Pete channel launched when I could say that I had seen every single KPS video. I'm falling a bit behind now with two videos a day but that said - I've seen the vast majority of Pete's content. This was... so freaking fascinating. Such a nuanced battle in an incredibly relatable spot that most people would write off as hopeless. Pete is the OG for a reason. Love this man's depth of strategy, commitment to the game, and willingness to help others learn

[@TheShizz011]

Unlucky Pete (literally) 😂 great video as per usual ❤❤❤

[@MegaChriz]

30:46 I like that you call Magenta Magenta and not Pink. I have worked in the printing industry so I like that the color Magenta gets some attention here. Plus I have a stuffed animal in the color Magenta that has a label on it that says "Magenta" (it's a Kodak Kolorkid).

[@RonaldTungol-j8d]

Pete I thought rolling reds cap was the better play turn one, Because then he bots hopefully and you have a kill guard, behind your original cap, and you can maintain a strong exterior outside of white, what’s a better exterior than another cap, I think the fear of being locked in a pocket, and the temptation of the super pocket was crazy lol 😂

[@mrcoolboy114]

it would have been the same odds 8 to 4 if he didnt lose a troop on the way. And the fact that it could have been worse odds made it more risky

[@RonaldTungol-j8d]

I mean 7-4 vs 8-4 isn’t the same odds or proposition

[@markkelso871]

Yeah i agree a lot especially considering white will never be able to roll the cap to the south if you can just put a 1 on it every turn. You can have like 3 kill guards off main cap lol

[@mattcross8553]

I thought the play was turn 1& 2 africa. Turn 3 Spain. And then stack behind white and take cards elsewhere. I'm also a novice and have never played ranked so I really don't know. If pete wins whites cap turn 1 he can back-clean the pocket so I get that play in real time

[@RonaldTungol-j8d]

@@mattcross8553 too risky to not invest in an exterior, you can’t do both bro you gotta choose lol 😂

[@BlurAurA]

Wow, that was unlucky!

[@NoticemeSinPi]

Pink was traditionally the masculine color and light blue was the feminine.

[@FreePete]

Why/when did it switch

[@NoticemeSinPi]

@@FreePete pastels became popular some time around mid 19th century. Pink was thought of as masculine because it is the lighter shade of red which was masculine, same with light blue and blue being feminine. There wasn't any particular event, but by mid 20th century it had swapped.

[@makannenvanwingerden3241]

⁠@@FreePete It’s worth noting that pink is what red dye fades into over time with sunlight and weathering. Jackets, overcoats, clothing, and military uniforms that had faded into pink were a sign that a man had been through a lot. A “red coat” that eventually became pink was a sign of an experienced and resilient individual. Additionally, pink was seen as a boyish derivative of the manly and warlike “red” - the same color of blood. In the 1900’s it was quite normal to dress infants in white and pastels and, as they got older, to start dressing them in more somber, deeper colors - regardless of gender. Pink and blue weren’t nearly as much as a dichotomy as we make them today, and it’s not really clear why the “switch” (if there even was truly a switch) happened. It is possible that blue dye became easier to make deeper / stronger earlier than red, which would have played into “the stronger color for the stronger gender” mindset. This would also have worked in reverse, because red was easier to make dye for before blue. “The daintier, lighter color for the daintier gender” - blue. Whatever the case, it seems like some really good marketing in the 1950’s is what really sealed the gender color dichotomy in to what it is today.

[@varger747]

So the question at the end where someone asks "gee why do you call it magenta" turns into "Don't tell me how to talk," may shed a bit of light on Pete's self confessed "inability to work on a team if I am not in charge." Some may call it oppositional defiant disorder but I would not. It is just that nobody can well stand being condescended to by an intellectual inferior. Which is not to say the question was malicious. It was not. But it is sort of that black/white thing that orwell talked about. It is magenta. Don't keep trying to tell me its pink! It also reminds me of Picard: There are FOUR lights! On a side note, this episode reminds me of "Bottle Shows" that networks do to save budget. The most famous Bottle Show from Breaking Bad was one in which Walt was stuck in the lab with a fly. That was it. Him hunting the fly. But.... still entertaining.

[@mhreinhardt]

This is a great situation for playing for 2nd. You keep stacking on White cap and White has to keep stacking cap, even if you never attack you're pretty much assured 2nd. A very long boring 2nd. Doubt you'd ever play that way, just saying. And thanks for answering my Q&A! Totally get the FU rebel mindset about it. Much love!

[@KEG69XXL]

Any time that I change the ink on a large format color plotter - I grab the Magenta cartridge.

[@GolemDude]

Yellow blew the opportunity to lock red and white, and double lock Pete, lol, it would get really crazy having 4 players in that one area

[@theo_the_hero]

I think you and white both played your seats the best you could but sometimes natural enemies is just the way it goes. I’ve been trying to avoid small/super pocket caps unless I know the other person I’m worried about trapping me or capping behind me can see me choose the cap guarding a pocket. Then at least I know that they know I chose that pocket and if they wanna try and lock me behind them or lock themselves behind me, it’s probably gonna be a bad day for both of us. All that being said, failing two positive odds rolls and them setting on 3 that many times in row is just silly bad luck. Ggs as always Pete.

[@FreePete]

lol Silly indeed!

[@loudvisions9156]

5:58❤😂

[@FreePete]

EUROPE

[@matthewbell7508]

I play a game where I try to match Pete’s energy during the intro. I’ve won 0 times so far.

[@giuliomagri8910]

Personally if i were white i would have broken your spain from the start and given you a 5th card: you get less troops for every turn you don't have spain, if you capture you are forced to trade on 5 with no possibility to take cards. The worst case scenario for white is that you didn't have a set on 4 (unlikely) and he gave you a set but for the set to be worth it it would take way too long

[@Jordan-pf9ws]

I wondered that about the pink thing to 😂 I try my best not to make assumptions about people so I didn't know if it was a macho thing or what it was.

[@jwg529]

I really did not understand your opening. Even if you win the 8v4 white still has a chance to strike back as they were next in the order and even worse red could have followed up and stolen it from both of you. Why not take the early +6 and beat down on white’s cap on turn 3? Seems like a losing move all the way to hit white’s cap on turn 1

[@FreePete]

Let's say I get a good or average roll, I'm able to fortify an extra troop onto that cap and white starts with two less to retake. It's not a great situation by any means. It's just the best outcome to discovering you're locked in a pocket T1, try to break the lock as quickly and as cheaply as possible

[@jwg529]

@@FreePete Interesting. Guess I forgot that white would have 2 less from losing his cap but I still think that even if you win the 8v4 you’re prob losing a few troops to do so and it’s likely weakened further by white’s revenge roll to retake. Then if I’m red I’m laughing all the way to the bank as I steal white’s cap from both of you. I still believe the better open is to grab your +6 by T2 so that on T3 you can take a higher percentage roll at white’s cap to take. I’m now 20 min in and this is brutal card luck. White very fortunate so far but I’m betting they will get slammed by red or black soon. Thanks as always for the content. I’m a recently new GM from watching and learning

[@alastair4839]

damn, the vid "pauses" when I watch that initial 8v4 cap hit - anyone know what the odds on that was? - its double the troops, so I thought that was a reasonable "safe" bet... so in theory, PK went in to that locked pocket "eyes open", and just got unlucky rolls (twice!)

[@timothyfranklin6040]

yeah, so 'counting up' all of his bad luck, first was a 67% chance roll 8v4 on turn 1 cap hit, he loses. Then white having 3 consecutive trade-ins on 3 cards, and finally the nail in the coffin was the 74% 127v112 roll (Pete's higher number of troops). So reasonably speaking, he was very unlucky this game. I think that yes, it would've been smarter to try speedrunning the africa bonus, then pressure the cap, but hey, hindsight is 20/20, huh? I'm also curious at what point would we say that he was 'excessively unlucky' vs very. Like, at what point does it become an incredibly unlikely scenario as opposed to simply, 'oh, it happens' ?

[@timothyfranklin6040]

and the probability (with my very limited knowledge of statistics) is taking that 67%, 74%, and the 3x set on three (42% chance according to google), it would be (1-0.67)*(1-0.74)*(0.4228^3), or about 0.65% chance. So not that 'unlikely' when you then consider number of games Pete plays.

[@alastair4839]

@@timothyfranklin6040 Thanks for the odds on each roll 😃 - but ... I am not sure your calcs are quite right. I think you calculated the chance of missing all these situations - rather then the chance of hitting any one of these situations - since Pete "wins" if he gets the 67% or the 74% even when white gets the set on 3 each time - so the chances MUST be much higher then 74%. Calculating just for the two roles would be: 1 - ((1 - 0.74) * (1 - 0.67)) which is: 1 - (0.26 * 0.33) which is 0.9142 (91%) So he has 91% chance to succeed on the rolls - even with the white getting the sets on 3 each time..... err... I think, right? 😬

[@timothyfranklin6040]

@@alastair4839 I think we agree. I was calculating "what are the odds that this thing, which did happen, would've happened?" So calculating for that case it wouldn't be a 1-((1-0.67)*(1-0.74)) -> 1-(0.33*0.26), as the odds of missing the 67% chance roll is 33%, times the chance of missing the 74% chance roll of 26%, then the odds are around 0.0858 or just under 9% for both rolls to fail. Then the cards and all, etc

[@harbhub]

@@timothyfranklin6040 That isn't hindsight. It would have made more sense to take the bonus turn 1. That's what many of us were thinking before he even started making his turn 1 play. I was focused on the right way to take the bonus (e.g. do you risk a 7v3 on red troops to try to get a lucky turn 1 bonus or do you take the safe route and take it over two turns? I'm a grandmaster btw and play exclusively (almost) on the meta settings. Was even pondering if there is a world where you put 4v1 on the yellow troop in front of the capital so that you can take the bonus turn 1 with a weak cap and just play into the fact that no player would reasonably contest it since yellow wouldn't know (since you 4v1 to knock out yellow vision) and then just take out the inside bonus troops so those players can't contest. White would be unlikely to contest as well since they'd assume you had troops on cap since they'd see you clobber their 1 troop inside your bonus. Note: Rolling white's cap was not even on my bingo card in terms of the plays I would have made there lol just no point in taking that risk when you can contest both their bonuses early (you had the 3 troops outside France bonus to contest it for at least one turn and they can never take Spain). So you just amass troops early, put troops into France that either nets you cards or weakens white regardless of if they attack said troops, and then eventually pressure their capital to eliminate them.

[@brianguardiola9173]

hey pete found your channel through reddit, while asking a very specific question that i am sure you have answered many times. Why Adjust the Troops during your attack to 100% is that just preference or does the game favor those who attack with just enough troops to win 100% of the time? Or does it limit the amount of possible troops that you can leave in the event that you lose more than a favorable amount of troops while attacking? Thank you.

[@NickTheNickname]

So, the average number of troops that you lose on a roll, increases with the more troops you use to attack. It's just how the algorithm behind the balanced blitz works. So by using the slider to adjust to the lowest possible 100% roll, you lose a lower average number of troops as you attack.

[@brianguardiola9173]

@@NickTheNickname Thank you for that fast and simple explanation my good sir!

[@the-neo]

​@@NickTheNicknameThats broken 😅

[@joske7804]

​@@the-neoMost people agree, bad game mechanic.

[@elenna_alexia]

I disagree with you on the pink/magenta association, but I wouldn't presume to tell you how to talk, or act like you haven't heard that before. Of course you have, it's called pink in the game itself, you know what you're doing lol. And surely the comments about it help your engagement for the algorithm 😉

[@billybob-cl6im]

I get its over 50% but why not slow roll that first cap hit?

[@ZytphenA]

A Spoiler Block ❤

[@jamesstevenson3116]

hmmm.. so who did we think of immediately? :P

[@FreePete]

I wonder

[@alligator023]

Not sure if you read these comments, I hope you do though. at around 18:50, you talk about white making a deal with the devil by giving you cards. Did you consider the possibility that everyone else was card blocking him on the other side, and he had no choice but to take cards in Spain? I’m trying to learn from your videos, so I try to pay attention to what I can infer about the state of your board… noticed that possibility, so thought I might as well mention it :) thanks so much for your videos, they’re the reason I’ve already hit beginner and am well on my way to Intermediate!

[@FreePete]

Could have been. I don't find a ton of use speculating on things that I can't do anything about. My only goal is to break the lock. I can't afford to worry about the rest of the board yet so what's going on over there doesn't even matter.

[@alligator023]

​@@FreePete Sorry I missed this! that's certainly fair nuff! Love your videos man, I have a strategic mind so it's cool to learn how I can leverage that by watching your videos.

[@WalkitHof]

Ultimate turtle is pathetic, 100% agreed

[@ZackRahmoun]

I am writing this comment before even watching as I just finished a 3 hours game , Risk has many problems and I am sure you and your audience are aware of those problems but as I climb the ladder I find the ranking system is rigged as I am gm with almost 32k where it takes a lot of strat , diplomacy and thinking to win a fair game and when you do you only get a few points were losing in the other hand will take like x10

[@jp27whodey31]

Magenta definitely sounds more fem than pink. 😂😂😂just fuckin with ya

[@the-neo]

Its pink dang it ITS PINK!!

[@paratame105]

@@the-neo Yeah, I gotta say, I've been watching Pete for a while now and I like the guy a lot. But in this case, it seems to me like he is confused about what the primary function of language is, which is to communicate, not to express yourself. What's most important in communication is how your message is received, not how you think about the world. That all being said, I'm an anti-prescriptivist myself, same as Pete, so he can say and do whatever the fuck he wants. Especially if it's to fuck with people 😂

[@euandouglas4674]

wtf is ur luck this game LOL

[@LithmusEarth]

3 Grand Masters 3 Experts. Wow... you could have had a hell of a game, if you hadn't gotten locked behind white the entire game and him setting on 3 three times in a row. You otherwise seemed to have played so well. Oofah.

[@brianmason8287]

Why does he call the salmon color magenta?

[@henrycurnow1150]

Can anyone sell me some bat juice please? I need to grow my brain

[@zachford5006]

Herro

[@edwardhicks6018]

In this situation, I’ve found success by not revealing to white that I am inside them until a few turns into the game. Take Africa turn 1, then take cards for a few turns in Spain before preparing a stack big enough to break through with. You also might catch white with less troops on cap if they weren’t suspecting someone that big behind them. However, I prefer to avoid getting myself locked inside anyone if I know it’s a possibility.

[@FreePete]

It's not an ideal position to play. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. In order for it to go like this we need particularly bad luck.

[@edwardhicks6018]

@@FreePeteYa that first roll was probably worth the Risk, but the exact sitch most people b*tch quit after it fails.

[@BoofDoofus]

Should’ve taken the cap when you had the chance. In fairness the game is literally called ‘risk’ so I guess fair play

[@tsherman393]

Pink is just easier to say? But, I was curious too haha. Magenta ♡