Lord of the Waters (Part 2) - A Song of Ice and Fire Theory [HOTD SPOILERS]

video retroactively contains huge spoilers for house of the dragon sorry sorry i wasn't clairvoyant enough
Now that Aurane has his immense ships, where's he going with them? Does House Velaryon have ties to the Blackfyre cause and Aegon? Will Lord Waters be showing up in Slaver's Bay? Or do his allegiances lie somewhere less obvious?
This video contains spoilers up to and including Season 7 of Game of Thrones and The Winds of Winter (Book 6). It also contains a dangerous amount of obscure references. Never pet a burning dog.
Character art by Mihajilo Dimitrievski (used with permission): themico.deviantart.com/
Reddit thread on the Volantene Slave Revolt: / spoilers_all_the_volan...
i have a patreon: / glidus
i have a twitter: / notglidus
you have a discord server: / discord

[@thekarmicbrat]

8:55 I love how absolutely everyone used Cersei before fucking off far away from anyone's reach.

[@zamalamahama4894]

It’s so fucking funny reading those Cersei chapters watching her make the dumbest decisions possible, setting up the dominoes to her own defeat and then have her going “Oh yeah Tywin Lannister #2 right here baby”

[@LuvLee296]

Shoutout to the hotd spoilers tag added 5 years later that’s mad thoughtful and must have taken a while if you went through every video to add them x I see you bruh

[@StrongHamr]

Edric Storm is also in the Stepstones or Lys, so Aurane bringing Edric to Aegon or the lost Golden Company finding Edric would be cool. Especially if Aegon and Edric form a weird friendship considering one's father killed the other's "father."

[@nealfirstofhisname]

Edric Storm, Aurane Waters, and Aegon Blackfyre. The bastard triumvirate.

[@jolinefields3460]

Omg I forgot my own mother’s name ❤😂

[@sachamason3116]

@@nealfirstofhisname aegons not a bastard tho

[@jacklu1611]

Pretty nice mirroring of Aegon’s original conquest where Ores Baratheon fought beside him.

[@JPP17]

Aurane Waters is a Badass!!!

[@sprounzit6487]

Great video. Cool animation and references. I like that you picked a sort of obscure character to dive into as well, instead of the same basic prophecy theories etc everyone else does.

[@mrcooldudelikefood]

great editing

[@Glidus]

great commenting

[@Emperorofthemoon1]

Consider this: Aurane wants to leave the Gullet with his war fleet. We don’t know why. Paxter Redwyne also doesn’t know why, since Aurane is rogue, and he hasn’t received word of any new assignment for the Royal Fleet, which is info he’d surely be aware of. Redwyne, a “crown loyalist” blockading Dragonstone for the crown, has two options: let this pretty obvious traitor pass, or stop him. Redwyne doesn’t want to risk his smaller ships against Aurane’s Drommonds, and Aurane is outnumbered probably 20 to 1. Fighting would be a lose-lose scenario. Additionally, Loras Tyrell is a kingsguard whom the Tyrells put on the KG in the hopes of keeping close to tommen and influencing him. He can no longer do so since Cersei forbade it, and now that the Reach is under attack, the Tyrells need all the swords they can get. Loras happens to be a pretty darn good one. Paxter likely wants to ferry the Tyrell host under Loras back to Oldtown and the Arbor, and naturally a Tyrell (Loras) should lead them. Enter Aurane Waters. He wants to leave, but Paxter is at the door. They strike a deal. Aurane is to report that Loras has been grievously wounded and won’t be able to fight (or leave Dragonstone for that matter). How he’s free to leave with Paxter Redwyne for the Arbor. In exchange, Aurane Waters is free to leave the gullet and do whatever, completely unhindered by Paxter Redwyne’s Fleet. Perhaps the connection is deeper than that, but this is how it appears to me at the surface.

[@made-line7627]

Very, very curious 🤔 I like it.

[@MyUserTubeAccount]

3yrs later, but, nice...

[@metallicoustic6733]

I didn't realize Margary and Loras' mother was a Hightower until this video's family tree at 9:20

[@thepredator9002]

So basically the high towers once again a queen on the throne, kinda.

[@metallicoustic6733]

@@thepredator9002 pretty much!

[@GardensAndGames]

Holy crap, that "MOAR TOPPINGS!" clip hit me right in the childhood.

[@akajulester]

1:11 Holy crap I remember playing this game a lot in 8th grade in computer class! I'd forgotten the name for so long, I'm so glad to find out it wasn't just a fever dream haha

[@bensonfang1868]

6:52 aurane riding Viserion like Addam and seasmoke would be epic.

[@bensonfang1868]

6:51 if targaryens are naturally more attracted to family members aurane would win that easily.

[@fuzzydunlop7928]

Wait... there was a 'Dyana' Dayne? Dyana? Jyana? Jyana Reed? Jyana Reed is actually Ashara Dayne who fell in love with froggyboi Howland Reed and is currently holed up in the Neck?

[@Glidus]

ladies and gentlemen, we got 'em

[@bx22able]

GoT is inspired by the War of the Roses. If Lanister = Lancaster And Stark = York Then Tyrell = Tudor A Tyrell on the throne at some point is a possibility.

[@theletterm5425]

Great work man! Always nice to find new asoiaf content makers and your style of video making is certainly very unique :D looking forward to part 3 this has been very entertaining.

[@ssorayaya]

i think the most supportive evidence for an alliance between aurane and daenarys is that grrm wouldnt throw away the chance to give her a love triangle with two steamy charming hunks

[@minisam1988]

4 years late but love a well thought out theory delivered with a punch and some humour. Thank you my Fiend for your work.

[@iamsheel]

I hate the fact that this was done 5 years ago and we still not got twow

[@marcmarc4776]

Another awesome video!

[@user-wm7jd7zd4m]

man, this is gold

[@lordgregory9107]

Another awesome video my dude

[@only_one_chrisfantazzi]

your style is cool. definitely enjoy

[@knightshade1297]

great videos your so funny 😂😂😂but you deserve more subs like seriously

[@quintboredom]

I KNOW, RIGHT?? His videos are just aaaah, amazing.

[@Brandonhayhew]

If I was Aurane Water I would not want to risk my life and the lives of my men of the warships. I would go and join Dany instead of risking everyone's lives in a pointless cause of supporting a failed Lannister rule. Or not support stannis. Edit: game of thrones is like everyone is betting all lives to shady outcome?

[@MexMX]

You've got pretty cool videos my doode

[@Rodneyjackson11]

New aegon showing up with a new orys on velaryon ships would be sick and echo the original conquest

[@JizzMasterTheZeroth]

You know what you're forgetting? Glass candles. Who's more likely to have Valyrian glass candles than a Valyrian house who settled in Westeros 300+ years before the Doom (and 200+ years prior to the Targaryens) and has always focused on trade, warfare, exploration, travel etc. by sea (over great distances) and far away from the rest of the Empire besides? While the Targaryens (and Dragonstone) are often referred to as "the westernmost outpost of the Empire", Driftmark is actually further west and settled well before the Targaryen tuck tail and ran from Valyria - Dragonstone itself was even build ~200 years before their arrival, most likely by the Velaryons to house their dragons, as there are reports of dragons in Westeros prior to the Targaryens arriving just as Cannibal is said to predate them as well. My point is, they're more important than we're led to believe at first glance. Besides, as Valyrian rules of succession are equal between men and women, their claim to the Throne is much stronger than either "Aegon" (be he Aegon or a Blackfyre, it makes no difference) or "Daenerys" (if she's really Daenerys, considering her vague and somewhat contradictory memory of her own childhood and Quaithe's insistence on her being someone else). Per Valyrian law, House Velaryon are the rightful claimants through Rhaenys -> Laena -> Baela -> House Velaryon. The Old, the True(!), the Brave has no need of the Mummer's Dragon(s). @2:05 You completely missed the point of The Rogue Prince and The Princess and the Queen that took place just prior to the family tree you're using. Think that was about the Targaryens? It wasn't. It was about the Velaryons and the Hightowers (who coincidentally ended up with Baela and Rhaena respectively, thereby maintaining the status quo). This battle for the Throne is no different - the remaining Targaryens, if actual Targaryens, are as much mere pawns today as they were during the Dance. Viserys, Daenerys and "Aegon" are/were all being manipulated by Varys and Illyrio, but who's Varys and Illyrio and what's their ultimate goal? Hard to say, but what is certain is that they're from Pentos and the only Westerosi faction I can remember having heard of with Pentosi connections were the Blacks/Velaryons at the time of the Dance of the Dragons.. @9:10 Sure, "Aurane's" first appearance in A Feast for Crows is at Tommen's wedding, but his first appearance in the story is in A Clash of Kings, chapter 65 (Sansa VIII). He enters our story much earlier than the wedding. @10:15 Sure, his actions do seem to benefit the Tyrells at first glance.. but that's the problem with "Aurane" and House Velaryon - everything they've done has worked both for and against every major player/faction at some point. He did also argue for Loras' attempt at taking Dragonstone (and shipped him there) which allegedly left Loras gravely wounded and disfigured - i'm not convinced, but that's what we're being told. Doing this also freed up the Redwyne Fleet, thereby sending it against Euron (who obviously has something up his sleeve) on the other side of the continent. Whatever the Velaryons do, it serves to weaken the different factions, including the Tyrells. Whatever remnants of either the Redwyne or Iron Fleet makes it to him, they'll have nothing to threaten his massive dromonds (Redwyne's flagship being ~300 oars and Euron's Silence having ~200). The only thing threatening his dominance of the Narrow Sea is the Volantene fleet and they're heading in the opposite direction (where Victarion could potentially take control of it using that fancy horn of his).

[@made-line7627]

Good points. Good points. I thought that the Velaryons *weren't* dragon-riders, though... They didn't seem to be pre-Conquest/Doom, and they haven't seemed to have been since. That's really neither here nor there, though, when it comes to your analysis 🤷‍♀️

[@dutchpangermanist5673]

@@made-line7627 The only Velaryons who rode dragons were those with Targaryen mothers. Like the children of Corlys Velaryon and Rhaenys Targaryen.

[@matthewstevenson6604]

Never thought I'd see Kevin Rudd in a ASOIAF video.

[@GhostEmblem]

11:09 I dont remember that comment about lost blood but it is in stark contrast to what I do remember which is that he charged in recklessly to end the siege as soon as possible and get back only to have boiling oil poured on him and been badly burned inside his armor. This is obviously not consistent with large amounts of blood loss and speaks to the idea of it being a lie.

[@Glidus]

Yes, the story is inconsistent with a couple of minor details like that. I'd put good money on Loras being a) on Dragonstone but completely uninjured, or 2) somewhere completely different, probably Oldtown.

[@made-line7627]

Good catches!

[@Ag-qr6ii]

@@Glidus we need more videos like this from the meme god glidus 🐐

[@poopikins]

What's Geralt doing in the thumbnail?

[@HebrewsElevenTwentyFive]

Better late than never, new sub

[@tarvoc746]

12:35 - "Does he just want to watch the world burn?" - Who do you think he is, David Benioff? ...Hmmm, on second though... he conned Cersei into financing a ridiculously overcosted megalomaniac project and then fucked off with it to do his own thing? Holy smokes, he really is David Benioff!! =)

[@randombencounter263]

Aegon is a Blackfry and Aurane Waters is the real Aegon.

[@niksterkai4303]

Hotpie is real Aegon

[@bearlyhardley]

I will come back to watch these after HOT D has completed, you have another view to look forward to Glidus

[@Him_Him_]

Ok bye

[@quintboredom]

What's your problem with uhloominuhm?

[@PortoPaul]

Video idea - Petyr Baelish: From Pimp To Simp

[@haraldf5793]

Great!

[@hi_austin]

Dig this one too

[@leone.6190]

He could also just take control over Driftmark, imprison, or even Kill his halfbrother and try to become heir of House Velaryon. As a bastard this would be the only way to Inherit the title.

[@jjollu]

My man, yes yes yes! Back (slighty late, but whatever) with a vengeance

[@Glidus]

Yeeaah, perhaps one or two weeks was a bit ambitious, shall we say. The next one should definitely take less than two months, though.

[@PeterErwin325]

1:10 this activated a core memory I didn't know I had, what game was this?

[@marcusanark2541]

Imagine if Aurane Waters didn't want allegiance to any players and truly be a independent badass Pirate King!

[@sertorrhenclegane]

And not to be that guy, but it's possible Aurane got his information from different people on the docks than Qyburn, who got it colossally wrong. Docks in a seaside city like King's Landing typically aren't tiny.

[@thepodium6930]

Pillow fiend sounds like a dirty word

[@bensonfang1868]

8:12 perhaps he still wants to create an alliance between the two

[@Fiddler1990]

How would it square with newt PJ's theory of Taena & Rewyne working for Aegon?

[@marcusanark2541]

I wonder, it as well.

[@TheCbot88]

7:16 What about a dwarf riding a dragon?

[@ssusanchef1047]

Zork reference FTW!

[@Xob_Driesestig]

Hey man, really enjoyed it, but part three is a [deleted video] is that intentional?

[@Glidus]

Cheers mate! Nothing to worry about, just a bit of a KZbin quirk. When I uploaded Part 3 - which you can go and watch right now :^) - I added it to the playlist at the same time. So even though the video wasn't fully processed, it was still in the playlist. Because KZbin can't display unprocessed videos, it showed up as [deleted video]. But it's up now.

[@Xob_Driesestig]

Just watched it, very convincing and very well made. Do you have already have an idea for your next video essay/series? Or are you looking for ideas?

[@Glidus]

I've got a couple of ideas floating around, and I don't want to make any promises, but it looks like I'll be diving into the cost of life and death; that is, the way resurrection and bloodmagic seem to function. It's ambitious, and there's a lot of ground to cover - Mirri Maz Duur, Thoros and Beric, Jaqen, Melisandre - so it'll probably be another long, multi-part series. That said, if you have any suggestions, I'd love to hear them. Especially if they're smaller in scope. I might want some respite between these two large series. I like tackling ideas that haven't really been dissected in the video/essay format, so if there's anything on your mind that you haven't seen discussion on, please do let me know.

[@Xob_Driesestig]

Oh no I would love a multi-part series on the asoiaf magic. It is really on my mind a lot and I have some shaky theories of my own but I would love to hear your thoughts on it. For a smaller video I would love it if you could puzzle out the motivation behind Stannis' ridiculous quest he gave Justin Massey, he has the support of the ironbank, why would he throw that money away? Or maybe a series on the ironbank as a whole? Anyway thanks for making these videos and engaging with your audience.

[@Glidus]

Well it might sound a bit outlandish, but as I somewhat suggested in part 3 of this series, Justin Massey might be a communication point between Aurane and Stannis - much like how Davos was a communication point between Wyman and Stannis, as well as Saan and Stannis, and how Tycho was a communication point between the Iron Bank, Jon Snow, Sybelle Glover, and Stannis. It seems that Stannis is either, as you said, throwing his money away, or he's expecting something for Justin in Braavos. What that thing could be is rather vague, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was Littlefinger-related in some sense. There's so many balls in the air that I can't even be mad that the book is taking a decade to write. Perhaps the Justin Massey thread is something worth pulling on. It certainly goes under-discussed, as far as I've seen. The Iron Bank as a whole... that sounds like a big task. An interesting one, but big. Maybe after bloodmagic.

[@petrfedor1851]

Why thumbnail to this video has better depiction of Geralt of Rivia then 3 games and 2 shows?

[@julioulloa5403]

Was that a Klaes reference?

[@robertmarks2379]

O.05 lmfao crying laughing here that's awesome file name "dumb bullshit" lol

[@ichabodstrange756]

Finally :D

[@ssa3101]

1:10 1:20 dude i try to sleep to these videos. Can you not ruin that

[@sagebias2251]

There is a 0% chance Dorne supports anyone besides Dorne.

[@user-sj2nn8co3b]

Unbent unbowed unbroken

[@hexa3389]

It is more "morally" likely that Orayne would serve the blackfyres. But logically, as I am sure the GRRM would try to make it to be, he would join Dany. Just because of Dragons. The chances of winning when faced against Dragons is just too low to be plausible.

[@ThighErda]

oh god this feels like 1 year ago not 3 :c

[@highrulain3]

Zoombinis. Solid.

[@lukaslambs5780]

“Dived”

[@stephaniec9539]

Love this he is a total Stannermen

[@faisalkamal4319]

Aurane - we live in a society

[@levongevorgyan6789]

YOu'd go with the guy without dragons, against the woman with dragons? Are you suicidal my man? I'm not discounting him joining Aegon, but he seems to be the sort to pick the winning team. If he doesn't join Dany, it won't be because he prefers a fellow potential illegitimate noble.

[@SquattingxBear]

Was that a fucking Zoombinies reference at 1:12!?

[@Kriosaivak]

*Beware the pillow fiend.*

[@avengercannon]

No Sept explosion at least not like the show, trial by combat with Robert Strong vs. Loras Tyrel perhaps? Repeat of their last fight but without the hound to save him.

[@enriquevanleeuwen7719]

Aegon was half Velaryon and married his sisters so Aenys was also half velaryon who married Allyssa Velaryon so Jaehaerys is 75% Velaryon, he also married a sister so all if his kids are 75% Velaryon including his Oldest son who married his Aunt who is also half Velaryon their Daughter Rhaenys 57,5% Velaryon married the seasnake their kids (laenor and laena) were 78,5% Velaryon. Baella who married into house Arryn their kid (Aemma) married Viserys (parents are siblings) and had Rhaenera 70% Velaryon. so all of hers and all of Daemon (75% velaryon) kids are in large part Velaryon as are the Greens. after the war the only three houses married into the royal family are Blackwood and Dayne and Royce so Daenaerys and jon both are a large part Velaryon.

[@pxnacoladaskxngdom]

who are the little blue men

[@maxmalten7749]

I want a pillowfiend:(

[@Aeterny]

Rohanne of Tyrosh not Kiera.. The latter was married to the son of Prince Baelor who remarried to his cousin Daeron the drunkard, son of Prince later King Maekar.

[@Glidus]

Yeah I actually put an on-screen correction for that. Still very shameful of me.

[@made-line7627]

@@Glidus Not *too* shameful. The family trees aren't just complicated in *your* videos. They're just straight-up complicated in general.

[@cantoxii6016]

Preston Jacobs = Daniel Glidus = *the cooler Daniel*

[@SkywayFishers]

MFIN ZOOMBINIS!!!!

[@angelalovell5669]

I fucking love a Zoombinis reference, they are few and far between.

[@Muzer0]

God that pizza game terrified me as a kid.

[@angelalovell5669]

@@Muzer0 HA, the stakes were fucking high. I don't want to be responsible for these weird little bastards not getting to their new home!

[@niccdbhj5156]

beep

[@momobley3870]

preef

[@bw7601]

You used clips from season 6 and seven but no spoiler warning in the description

[@Glidus]

I figured that, being isolated from their context, those clips didn't spoil anything in particular. But yeah, to be comprehensive, I think I will expand the warning. Sorry.

[@bw7601]

Glidus Thanks, if you've read the books or watched some of the show you can figure out even pretty short clips so it's a bit spoiler-y

[@goatt6811]

Good work but please stop using the annoying sounds in the videos

[@Glidus]

Sorry, that's just the way my voice sounds.

[@matthiuskoenig3378]

for current viewers GRRM apprantly confirmed that the blackfyres died out decades ago (this doesn't mean Aegon is infact a targ but he ain't no blackfyre)

[@made-line7627]

The male line of the family tree died out, implying that the *female* line did not 😉 👸🌲

[@alexandergangaware429]

@@made-line7627 My theory (hate me if you hate it): Yong Griff is Aegon Mopatis, son of Illyrio, a mixed Targaryen/Blackyre. Illyrio is descended from female-line-Blackfyres, while his second wife, Serra of Lys, is of some longlost Targaryen descent. Either from Jahaerys I's daughter Saera, Aerion Brightfliame, or some other source. Hence, the ability to claim that Young Griff is both Targaryen (so that the Pisswater Prince story is only a lesser lie) and Blackfyre (so the Golden Company would abandon their contract with Myr, and attack Westeros, since "some contracts are writ in blood"). But even if I'm wrong, you are correct: we are told of the "male" line of House Blackfyre dying out specifically to call attention to one or more female line(s) carrying on.

[@made-line7627]

@@alexandergangaware429 I would have to 100% agree with your theory. I love it!