Lumber Is Screaming Louder

Lumber Prices continue to crash. This will lead to an inevitable shortage a reversal in prices and force construction cost hire.
www.cnbc.com/quotes/@LBR.1
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[@s99614]

We beat Medicare!

[@jackieboy1593]

Finally! I thought nobody could beat it, but here we are! Thanks Biden!

[@pauljensen4773]

He beat Medicare.

[@mrballoonpimp]

It's funny to me how people love to say things with zero context. When did Benedict Donald take responsibility for ANYTHING why is the right not calling out his lies and gaffs... Oh that's right the cult followers never call out cult leaders. At least Biden admitted he did poorly and made mistakes. Now what's the excuse for Trump and his cult not doing the same?

[@b1burck]

​@@jackieboy1593Trump couldn't beat it but he is good at golf

[@AJohnSmith]

@@jackieboy1593If you go back and listen to his old speeches, that was his exact plan.

[@user-uf1mb5bj4x]

I've been through some tough log markets this one finally broke my will to care.

[@SigFigNewton]

The cure to high prices is high prices. These low prices are a direct result of production increases meant to take advantage of the previous high lumber prices.

[@SigFigNewton]

Imagine if people talked about this the way the fossil fuel industry has them talking about EVs. “Lithium prices are down because nobody wants an EV” Lol yeah? And lumber prices are down because nobody wants a home?

[@batape1965]

Lumber recent high: $1390; lumber recent low: $348; lumber today $446.

[@francisco2525]

Wasn't it $1600, then the way they assessed the lumbers future was changed to what we have now....

[@batape1965]

@@francisco2525 Perhaps. The point is, the price now isn't anything terribly unusual. It is like citing the falling price of Bitcoin as a harbinger of economic doom.

[@HipHopCantSaveMe]

This price is horrifically low

[@batape1965]

@@HipHopCantSaveMe But still 28% higher than the recent low. Not great, but it could be a whole lot worse.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

@@HipHopCantSaveMe How do you get rid of inventory as the economy runs out of available Cash? You dump the shit quick before it costs more to store it.

[@kimjay2697]

The penny info was mind blowing! So simple...yet, I'm sitting here tearing up our Brass bed to take the "clean" brass in to exchange for $$$,(because it's 40 years old and has wear so no one will buy it) never ever thinking about the obvious right in front of our faces! TY!

[@brodyalden]

Thank you very much again, Simon!

[@Winstonrodney6989]

Solid talk brother 🤘

[@jd218]

I work at a fortune 500 papermill.I also have a friend whos an engineer another one chemicle plant. We are all slow

[@lindanorris2455]

yes.

[@SigFigNewton]

Is paper a good indicator of broader economy or broader markets? Isn’t it still being phased out of various uses by various companies going electronic

[@jd218]

@@SigFigNewton yes think packaging shipping boxes as well as paper used in fast foods and shelves in stores products are boxed in

[@SigFigNewton]

@@jd218 that helps me understand

[@jd218]

@@SigFigNewton A lot of fine papers have gone out of business but brown paper and what's called bleachboard is still widely used. When you go to Long joghns or KFC the box your foods in is a lighter 8 caliper bleach board paper.

[@briancutsinger]

Great stream Simon and thanks for breaking it down, I truly appreciate you!🌞 Lumber! Who knew? Simon did! Thank you again and I really enjoy your content.

[@craigcolbourn8351]

Copper price= Future inflation indicator

[@danielhutchinson6604]

Minerals that were available at the prices Commodity Brokers desired, now are forced to deal with a new Trade Union that owns around 70% of resources. Buyers are limited to a small number of Wealthy Investors. That demand appears to be somewhat less than the 1960's seemed to provide? The cost of Homes that appear to be designed for Wealthy Customers, face a shrinking number of Buyers.

[@SigFigNewton]

Nah, I’d expect copper price to inflate more rapidly than overall inflation during these decades

[@lindanorris2455]

there is an AFFORDABLE HOUSING SHORTAGE BUT NOT AN UN- AFFORDABLE HOUSING CRISIS.

[@lindanorris2455]

I ran into a lumber problem when I worked in Aersopace. We were using lumber pallets to ship certain large products to Canada. However, the wooden pallets we found out were NOT Bromated nor had any fumigation at all. So once the card board which sat on the Chinese wooden pallets and all the entire further shipments were blocked at Canadian Customs. The wooden pallets and cardboard materials were left in the Canadian Customs warehouses until the Bromation / Fumigation situation coiuld be officially resolved. It was a MESS!

[@dailydoseofnews4828]

If rates stay here then the number of people that can afford to buy at these levels might dry up and that could send prices down This can happen even with a housing shortage

[@danielhutchinson6604]

It appears to be more of a Cash Shortage?

[@dailydoseofnews4828]

@@danielhutchinson6604 Sure today alot of people buy in large part with cash cuz they dont want to borrow at these rates. Point being that we sooner or later run out of those cash rich ppl (and the ones that borrow at these high rates) and that send prices down. This can very well happen even if there is a housing shortage

[@greatvalleyone]

Why is plywood so expensive?

[@asknwclips7672]

i collect those bronze cents too, for the reasons you stated, but keep in mind it is illegal to melt down US coins for their metallic content, and also that unless the price of copper rises about 10x from here, it won't be economical to move it even when it becomes legal to melt due to heavy weight and bulk.

[@BugMateo]

This is good commentary my man... thanks!

[@barbs116]

I was watching a different video on KZbin and a guy was following lumber prices and another channel guy worked at a lumber mill and both said the slowing down his mill shut down and the Home Depot advertiser said prices of lumber are very low people are not building homes as much as they were last few years.. and both are said its correlation to downturn in the economy

[@hp7093]

Bought some treated the other day. Prices are really good right now

[@thegaryjay_yt]

subbed. I'm in fence sales. I appreciate your info

[@wallye8713]

Doing first stand alone full garage build (784 sq ft) in central New Jersey. 2x6 framing, plywood & OSB . Best place to get materials is…. ?

[@RossJohnson-bs8kf]

most interesting, glad I found this channel. Thank you, emojis of compliment, etc. apply also, lol, but have to run but def. back later. Will also speak sometime hopefully about my experience in a related sector, which I will also explain. Thx again. RJ.

[@jasonwyman5096]

work mates and polish friends

[@Bcornish1987]

Yes, several lumber mills in the USA have been closing down recently. This trend has been observed in various states, including Oregon, Montana, and Idaho, and is influenced by multiple factors. In Oregon, several mills have shut down due to high log costs and restrictive state policies aimed at habitat conservation. For example, the Western Oregon State Forests Habitat Conservation Plan has led to reduced timber harvesting to protect vulnerable species, impacting local lumber production significantly. Montana has also seen significant mill closures. Issues such as inconsistent timber supply, fluctuating lumber prices, and broader economic pressures have led to the closure of long-standing mills like Pyramid Mountain Lumber and Roseburg Forest Products. These closures are deeply affecting local economies and the timber industry, which is already strained by challenges like the rising cost of housing and reduced demand for lumber. In Idaho, the Stimson Lumber Company's mill in Plummer is set to close, influenced by uncertainties around future operation costs and environmental concerns. Despite these closures, there remains a demand for wood products in the U.S., driven by the ongoing need to address housing shortages. However, the current market conditions and regulatory environment continue to pose significant challenges for the lumber industry.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

The Housing shortage seems to have something to do with Investments in Real Estate? The number of speculators who drive the prices up in selected regions where incomes continue to flow through the economy, are apparently asking more than the Traffic will allow..... I can reveal one Property Owner who has 4 places that are very large and Roomy..... I have one Property Manager who bought the Neighbors place and Rents that House out. The costs that the Investors demand to maintain the speculation Property, appears to be beyond the ability of the average Home Buyer to pay. The Rents are also too high. The myth of a Housing Shortage appears to be somewhat questionable....

[@danielhutchinson6604]

When Roseburg closed down the Missoula Particleboard Plant, the evidence that the Sawdust was diminished to a point that no longer supports flooring underlay, or cabinet manufacturing material. Without the Mills sending affordable material to the Plant they were unable to continue operations. The presence of small operations who now appear to support small supplies of Rough lumber at affordable prices are pretty limited, but they continue to thrive. Perhaps the production of Lumber exceeded the number of Buyers who could afford Housing? The Money Supply seems to diminish despite Treasury Claims that "All is Well".

[@Bcornish1987]

Thank you for your detailed response. You’ve raised some interesting points regarding the housing shortage and its connection to real estate investments. It's indeed troubling how property speculation can drive up housing prices, making it difficult for the average person to afford a home. Your observations about property owners and managers accumulating multiple properties align with broader trends we see in many regions, where the market dynamics are heavily influenced by a relatively small number of investors. Regarding the closure of mills like Roseburg's particleboard plant, the downstream effects on industries reliant on affordable materials are significant. This creates a ripple effect where not only are housing costs impacted, but also the costs of furniture and other wood products, exacerbating the overall affordability issue. Your point about the diminishing money supply despite official claims of stability is also thought-provoking. It’s a complex interplay of factors, and it’s clear that the industry faces challenges on multiple fronts. Thank you for contributing to this discussion. It’s vital that we consider all these aspects when talking about the current state and future of the lumber and housing markets.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

@@Bcornish1987 It does get difficult to find any discussion of Economic effects on the Internet. Thank you for noticing the contributions of another uneducated Economist. I studied Economics in 1970 as the Currency Crisis of 1967 was being adjusted by the Nixon Administration. The spending of the Johnson Administration in Colonial Conflicts was a problem that appears to now face similar issues. I bought no Degrees due to my Pauper status. I simply retain some ability to digest information and form an opinion. Your Comment reflected some of the realities that I have noticed after 50 years of participation in Transportation and Construction issues. Thank You for your comments.

[@Bcornish1987]

Thank you for sharing your insights and experiences, Daniel. It's evident that your background in economics and your extensive experience in transportation and construction provide valuable perspectives on these issues. The economic complexities you mention, such as those during the Nixon administration, highlight how historical contexts can shed light on current challenges. It's fascinating to see how the economic principles and issues from decades ago still resonate today. Your observations about the parallels with today's economic conditions, particularly in the lumber and housing markets, are indeed thought-provoking. It's crucial that we continue to discuss and understand these factors to better navigate the future. Your ability to digest and form opinions on such intricate matters, despite not having formal degrees, is commendable and contributes greatly to this discussion.

[@johnsospencer]

Simon, decreased demand doesn't bolster asset prices. Also, the FED pivot will lag by how many months? Unemployment is underway and triggering the Sahm rule.

[@Junebug879]

Thanks for the info cool stream

[@destroya3303]

"This time it's different". I don't think so, history will repeat. Supply is taking off in AZ and Texas.

[@wwjccsd]

History might not repeat but it sure as heck rhymes.

[@AJohnSmith]

Nope. Just illegals.

[@jasonwyman5096]

250 a sheet marine grade plywood

[@danielhutchinson6604]

The stuff was getting expensive even when Russian Veneer was seen all over the Docks in Portland. The State Department appears to attempt to regulate commerce to keep up with Economic Warfare. How are they doing so far?

[@gyrate98]

Lumber turned me gay and ruined my life. 😭

[@JamesBlazen]

Timber companies like Weyerhauser and Potlatch continue cutting and producing lumber. They will do so as long as marginal revenue exceeds marginal costs. Otherwise they need to cut their workforce, cut their dividends and watch their stock price plummet.

[@jeffbrewer8509]

The mills raw material cost are not fixed, as log demand timber growers stumpage price drops.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

There is still some money available for construction. But the Banks appear to be running low on that Material. If the FED is unable to distribute Funds to Banks, who will get the remaining loans? That is the shortage that appears to create the inventory excess....

[@danielhutchinson6604]

@@jeffbrewer8509 The demand is where the prices appear to notice the effects of Cash shortages? You can cut Timber all day, but if no money is available to buy the structures, the price dropps till inventory is moving regularly. Like the oil markets noticing a lack of demand to stimulate prices, the Lumber needs liquid assets available to Bankers and Buyers. The issues appear to be connected to the FED being unable to support the Bankers.

[@thane816]

If you gave a course to understand the lumber industry, I'd take it.

[@stevensasy12345]

A KZbin video would be good

[@jasonwyman5096]

these prices 3 years ago

[@user-hl5qy4dk5m]

It's all ok folks. Navidia stock price is still going up.....🙂

[@jasonwyman5096]

in aus a house needs to be built every 2 minutes to keep up

[@HipHopCantSaveMe]

Word?

[@AJohnSmith]

Not true; you have a housing market pushed by foreign investment. There are plenty of homes.

[@jasonwyman5096]

who owns all the gold central banks who is bying all the gold

[@toryloving3492]

Anything war related is a good investment right now… uranium, metals, ammo…. Etc

[@b1burck]

Uranium is more of an investment for energy

[@User0player1]

Getting a woody will be cheaper?

[@858dano]

There thousands of empty house by me in Florida for rent and sale

[@mattbittner775]

🔥

[@anniealexander9616]

Boomers are dying off and putting homes on the market. My buddies Mom just sold two homes on a little over an acres. She moved in with him because her health is failing. He lives in a large brick home and doesn't have any children.

[@coopsnz1]

My parents sold there quater of a acre mansion in 2019 ! They sold 4 homes since retirement 2012

[@danielhutchinson6604]

@@coopsnz1 That appears to be where the Housing shortage is? Speculation in Real Estate has driven housing beyond the ability of Home Owners to buy. The shortage of affordable Housing is a problem that was caused by speculators after 2008. The Homes that were available as the Real Estate markets ran into reality, appeared to be a potential Gold Mine for investors who bought up cheap Repo Homes. Now as money appears to become limited the ability to find buyers who want to give up food for a roof over their heads, seems to have been reduced. The shortage is in Capital not Houses.

[@coopsnz1]

​@@danielhutchinson6604 my parents live in nz so taxes higher ! the tax more in retirement why they sold 4 ! they keep two places in cbd with water views

[@stevepailet8258]

had to laugh about builder inventory.. Some markets are already on the move down.. Rental markets controlled by the big lnvestors have skewed many local markets While other markets the prices are still heading higher due to limited housing for sale. Then there are markets like California and Florida where things like super high priced insurance is in play.. Can you say State Farm pulling out of these markets due to the high replacement cost? Then there are other markets that have seen 20 -30% decreased selling prices due to huge volumes of new homes that the builders have finally finished? It is no difference than the lack of affordability of autos only a small % of the buyers can actually afford them. Add on top of this Jobs and layoffs.. Hard to afford champaign on a botled water budget. Did you know that in many places supply is at a 16 year high? So with all of these things in mind I figure could well be a problem of excess inventory.. Who are the new buyers?? People are not getting married. They are not having babies.. So with the changing needs of society Figure that the days of mcMansions is going to reduce greatly. As a single mom she cannot afford a huge home.. Single guys just need big shop space.. Curtailment is here for several years from what I can see. We do live in interesting times

[@terrybroussard8373]

How about the other sizes will be special ordered because more profits, that's what they did with the windows

[@SuperMassman]

Pretty good show today.. 👍

[@UneducatedEconomist]

Thank you 🤙

[@craptacular8282]

A pickup in building could easily come about due to a drop in material, labour and land prices. I expect that the central banks and government wont want that to happen, and so the easing cycle will kick in first.

[@HipHopCantSaveMe]

Did you watch the video lol

[@craptacular8282]

@HipHopCantSaveMe I watched the first 15 min, but it was really long and I got bored. Did he cover that?

[@danielhutchinson6604]

@@HipHopCantSaveMe Most of His Videos are beginning to appear to be Government inspired propaganda? The spiel seems to be the same one that sells confidence in the system, and Physical Coins. Do you watch Him regularly?

[@jasonwyman5096]

gold hits 2400 next week

[@JCG33-bo8zi]

Awesome Stream 💯

[@toddgammons9400]

Same cycles happen over and over. It’s not different this time

[@danielhutchinson6604]

In the past the USA was getting support for the Federal Reserve Note, from Foreign Buyers. That source appears to have dried up since last October. This cycle might offer some new influences as many of the former Colonial Nations no longer want to deal with US Commodity Brokers, at the prices they appear to set. This does not appear to be Your Daddty's Stagflation?

[@destroya3303]

Agreed. The cycles will repeat.

[@jasonwyman5096]

a small block of land 500 000

[@jasonwyman5096]

the bebt is not fast enough

[@jasonwyman5096]

work your ass off live like a hermit to pay the morage

[@HipHopCantSaveMe]

Nothing wrong with that

[@EXDna]

I always convinced myself to 'live like a monk' for weeks at a time just to make the least of alll local apartments work, 5, 6 years ago. It's necessary these days if you're below the average.

[@SigFigNewton]

Reaganomics for four decades will do that

[@jasonwyman5096]

car manufacture gone in aus last toyota aurion 3.5 every buys commodor holden 6.2 LS3 $60

[@jasonwyman5096]

media rate rise august no rarte rise

[@jasonwyman5096]

just by gold

[@jasonwyman5096]

tensorgrip L17 best contact glue

[@jasonwyman5096]

if they cu rates the nex rate rise

[@jasonwyman5096]

wyman in the car

[@jasonwyman5096]

28 grams a ounce

[@UneducatedEconomist]

Troy ounce is 31.1 grams

[@jasonwyman5096]

i like your t shirt

[@jasonwyman5096]

if gold goes over 2400 inflatin is rampent

[@user-ot4xi9yj5r]

Lumber to $200

[@b1burck]

How are you buying Bitcoin? Through Coinbase?

[@wallye8713]

Bitcoin will be demise. Govt will be able to track it all don’t think they can’t/won’t . The govt hates cash as pretty much untraceable…

[@jasonwyman5096]

stock markets meta up 6%

[@jasonwyman5096]

simon from the other side off the world

[@jasonwyman5096]

a perth mint dragon half ounz 1880 dollars for a coin

[@b1burck]

Find something with less premium

[@Memry-Man]

🦌

[@jasonwyman5096]

he is albo twin brother

[@TV-ij3lv]

I paid 75 $ sheet of OSB three years ago for my addition on my cabin ... Expensive addition . We luckily found a local mill guy and now I'm getting tongue and groove wood for 85.cent linear sf for the inside walls . Were almost done thank god . Were doing the work ourselves

[@Aculus1]

Simon can you pin the video about Gresham's law?

[@unitedstatesdale]

**There is not a home shortage , There is a rental shortage. The houses Im building are for rental units. The R.O.I. is 22% higher than selling them. Zero Cap gain adds another 8%. :) BUILD BUILD BUILD.. RENT RENT RENT 😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😂

[@JamesBlazen]

Depends on the market. Lots of markets have 4% or lower rental yields.

[@jasonwyman5096]

laminex industries glue laminate to mdf plywood cut shape big money

[@jasonwyman5096]

you talk to much i like it

[@jasonwyman5096]

so what are voting fore

[@jasonwyman5096]

troy ounz 31. grams

[@jasonwyman5096]

i was oferd card no intrest 12months 25k card

[@jasonwyman5096]

in aus 300 000 for a sinngle store 2 storey 600 000

[@coopsnz1]

It 700k to build a 3 bed home anti capitalist liar ! My parents 3 level home cost 2 million to build . Look at house prices new build sold 1.5 milion more than a dump same suburb ! Plus building costs up 30% under socialist dickhead labor 2 yrs

[@coopsnz1]

A truck & ute tax 15% more

[@jasonwyman5096]

labour england

[@jasonwyman5096]

what car are you driving please tell

[@jakemanchester5139]

Bidenomics🤡🤡

[@jasonwyman5096]

use mobile app on phone

[@DanInAlabama]

Audio cutting out. Too far from wi-fi?

[@UneducatedEconomist]

Bad cell

[@ltdlawnservice4586]

So would we say that is a sign of the soft landing ?

[@jasonwyman5096]

i made big sacrafice no wife or childred i own 1000000 house next to the beach

[@larryhollingsworth9131]

I like your stuff but videos are way to long

[@UneducatedEconomist]

Generally, the first 10 or 15 minutes is all you need

[@markwest1922]

2 hour video. Toooo long

[@jasonwyman5096]

andy wallaru big house visit me any time 100 mile drive

[@coopsnz1]

It 700k to build 3 bed home in australia , taxes up 20% in 2 yrs a truck & ute tax 15% more . Tradies & builders are more expensive becauae of this socialist government 2 yrs costs up 30% . Industral realtions changes isnt helping there only 2% net profit in building a home