Lumber Is Proof Of A Crashing Economy

Lumber is a key indication of the health of an economy
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[@MrOgggie]

Remember 6 months ago when you said everything was going to shit? People miss on so much monetary gains by constantly being in fear. I get it, shit is crazy and unprecedented. But fear mongers like this just shout catastrophe 24/7 and just wait for a downturn to be right.

[@UneducatedEconomist]

No, I don't remember some random nonsense statement that carries no context to define the argument.

[@DynesLair-kb6qs]

First video on the channel I've watched. If I had to guess I think the truth is somewhere in the middle of those 2. The data the news shows is completely bunk and manipulated. It is also worth pointing out that some people are naturally pessimistic while others are more optimistic. There are 100% people that see everything as a negative and cry wolf constantly. They wait until a downturn or recession then scream about how they were right. And there is literally 0 value in that. In this situation, it feels more like someone recognizing a trend others might not notice and try to bring it to attention. He's simply saying "this is what I'm seeing and this is what the cause and effect of the market would be". Timing is very hard to predict and he likely will get it wrong but if this is what is being encountered day to day in his work that is very valuable info and now our jobs to research and see if this is something isolated or a broader trend of markets altogether.

[@joefer5360]

An avocado is $2 to $2.50. It was a dollar a year ago. At least the paper gains offset it right? RIGHT?

[@dallastaylor5479]

​@joefer5360 Good God, where is this. I bought avocados today under $1. Strawberries. 99 lb, blueberries .50 pint, gas 3.14.

[@joefer5360]

@@dallastaylor5479 Westchester County bordering the Bronx in NYS. Even within the working class neighborhoods. There aren't any reasonable priced working class neighborhoods in America's cities. Gas is the only thing that isn't too bad. 3.49. Strawberries - I've seen 4 and even five a pound. I remember before 2019 they were $2.50 a pound. Fish is still cheap, due to it being close to the shoreline. Can't recommend moving since all of the "savings" get offset by lower income and that initial moving cost + deposit. Down payment for a house means being at the whim of inflating repair costs. Also, enough city transplants like me moving nearby you, and YOUR avocados and berries go up in price. It's a conundrum.

[@TheBigdog868]

And yet, tolet paper is still at record high price. It's probably cheaper to wipe with a 2x4

[@phatphil7836]

"You couldn't wipe the shit off your ass with a 2x4." -- Jamie Dibrell

[@markovichglass]

Hammer chisel make thin flakes..... 😅😅😅😅 oh God, please sand down to steel wool 00 ..... or else ​@@phatphil7836

[@rickthompson1422]

...that's....knotty......

[@carsonturcotte9657]

Splinters in my ass, talk about a raw deal.

[@DDXY2K]

😂😂😂

[@kt6332]

You’re better off learning to build your own house. Contractors are over charging, doing crappy work with crappy materials and leaving jobs incomplete!

[@therealmcgoy4968]

this and install a geothermal heat pump for heating

[@MrRealeyesrealize]

@@kt6332 at every industry in this era. Inefficient and bad across the board

[@rayn3038]

AMEN

[@traciedowning8566]

Yep, I'm experiencing that right now.

[@kt6332]

@@traciedowning8566 Sorry to hear that. I was paying my contractor in parts as work was beginning done. Unfortunately I did not hold back enough and was really fooled into thinking he would correct his damage and poor craftsmanship. Don’t believe they have the upper hand , they don’t! You have the right to stop them from working on your property and hold back money. Don’t let them bully you into paying for incomplete crappy work.

[@benlondon8467]

Your neck must be killing you mate. Been sitting in that car talking to your phone in the passenger seat for 4 years. Put the phone on the dash, kick back, gunna hurt ya self the way ya going. Actually use the Lumber support on the seat 👌

[@bruhhhhh718]

the "lumber" support...i see what you did

[@jasonshults368]

He can't show you what's in the back seat.

[@miaa7097]

😂😂😂😂

[@kevintewey1157]

Lower back

[@jjman533]

He needs a visit from an Uneducated Chiropractor.

[@TV-ij3lv]

Im in the floral industry and its tanking ! Havent seen it this bad in 28 years . I was lucky and sold my shop back in January

[@jonathanbueltel9853]

Good for you!

[@Glen-uy4jt]

Better to change by choice not wait for necessity. Better to loose less than loose more.

[@mistyblue526]

I've been in the restaurant industry for 4 decades, and the majority of tipping is below average, for the first time, ever. Less good tips, and plenty of real bad ones. Sometimes it's not even enough for tip out, and I have to tip out from my own pocket. At my age of 60 years....its hard to find a new profession. Ugh.

[@tinymission7821]

I’m in the floral industry too and we are rocking. No summer slowdown whatsoever. I work 6-7 days every week and my boss is happy to pay me overtime. We still get our year end bonus and they are bigger every year.

[@mistyblue526]

@@Glen-uy4jt Yes. My single mom raised two daughters on a waitress wages. Now I cant even afford to live for one on the wages. Times have really changed. I'm still trying to catch up! 🤣

[@ronaldreagan-ik6hz]

I am a paving contractor. We have been hammered the last two years on Payroll costs, materials, insurance, yard rent, equipment costs, etc. We are making lower margins even at higher prices because our backend costs have just gone up and up.

[@rudy_2299]

Your workers are going through the same thing, give them a raise

[@TheVoiceofTheProphetElizer]

Hooray!

[@TheBigdog868]

I run a vending machine business, and you wouldn't believe how much people kvetch over a 25-cent price raise. I hate it, too! But everything keeps going up, and I have to pass that on. This country has become so unfriendly to small businesses. The global chains are doing great and always will, but it's at the expense of everything else

[@ronaldreagan-ik6hz]

@@rudy_2299 My business has mad less money in the last 5 years, as the costs of business continue to rise more than the cost of work. You cant just "pay people more" without covering the cost. jesus. you are fucking clueless how business works, and how much the costs of business has gone up in the last few years.

[@TheVoiceofTheProphetElizer]

@@TheBigdog868 I have found the vast majority of individuals are tightwads. 25 cents? Come on people - do you want the snack or not? Sorry for the troubles, I can't stand when people are tightfisted with their money.

[@jasonneugebauer5310]

Here in Omaha NE Lowe's is a ghost town. Lately I have not seen anyone parked on the pro's side of the parking lot. Last week, I went into Lowe's, and all the employees were standing around doing nothing. This week, when I went into Lowe's, I got asked if I needed any help 20 to 30 times in ten minutes. We are living in crazy times, and all the government has to say is everything is great, don't worry.

[@TheThotWhisperer]

I don't know why but the "asked if I needed help 20 to 30 times in 10 minutes" really got me 😂😂😂.

[@johngatsby1473]

Lowes has been dead for awhile....

[@rudy_2299]

Now they want to help😂

[@ArthurDentZaphodBeeb]

Here in California, pro parking is packed, even on weekends. 3-6 month wait for contractors. 1+ month for plumbers, electricians etc. Months to get appliance repairs. Custom cabinet guy quoting 22 weeks delivery. Not the busiest I've ever seen, but not far from it either. Certainly no signs of a slowdown...help wanted signs everywhere.

[@macleanclassics]

Same here in Ontario Canada... but its home depot.... lowes already closed all the Canadian stores about 6 months ago.

[@fabuloushostess6171]

and yet, builders arent lowering prices...

[@markphillips9822]

Give it time. They'll be begging people to buy em.

[@paytonpeta1336]

They bought the land at an inflationed price during COVID and their loan was only good for 5 or 3 years. Now they are renewing the loan from 3% to 7%. While lumber cost are down they now have 7% rates keeping margins thin.

[@BaMK0000]

Builders are building less but the demand is high. The profit probably isn't there for there product.

[@JasonAldeann-bt4xf]

No profit in building houses anymore.. been that way for years. From starter homes to mcmansions. You gonna spend 4 months as GC on a house and take a LOSS when its said and done?? Me neither

[@deseosuho]

New home prices in Austin are down more than 15% from 2022 highs.

[@Myheartsease]

Glad to see lumber prices back to pre-pandemic levels.

[@robertstovall7195]

SOME lumber prices........

[@matthewseed3386]

It's good thing right?

[@brucey5585]

Finally price is down somewhere. But the price of food is still high.

[@keithspernak6456]

You said it! My wife just dropped $235 on three bags of groceries. No alchohol in the trip either!

[@cheds1]

@@keithspernak6456 you need to get her trained better 🤣

[@batape1965]

Food prices are still high. But wages have risen as well. You shouldn't consider one without the other.

[@762foryou]

@@batape1965 The data shows wages have been stagnant since June '22.

[@francisco2525]

@@batape1965 Wages have not gone up, most food items have gone up 100% in the past 4 years, a subway sandwich that was $5 dollars ago, now is $12 dollars. I am in the printing industry and everything for me has gone up 100%, and wages have only gone up 5% to 8% in those years, which really is not keeping up with inflation.

[@chanchan5349]

Listen, I’m probably the last of the boomer generation & it’s never been easy for me! We were fortunate to get into a starter 2bd, 1 ba house @38 years ago, way out in no man’s land for $56k. High interest rates but a tiny 1960 house we could afford. Got moved by employer into an area with higher prices…moved again and again. Each move was into larger towns & home $$ just kept getting higher. The differences I see today are younger families thinking they need the 450-500k house rather than the cheap fixer. They end up over their heads trying to meet mortgage payments. No one helped us. We were paying off school loans on a $16k initial salary. It’s hard, you sacrifice, you do without, you learn to pinch penny’s. I still hang my laundry outside. I wash when I know I can hang dry. We cook. We don’t eat out. We drive old cars with high mileage, but service them regularly without skipping. Our last house was the cheapest we could find 25 years ago. You can do it but it won’t be easy. I do see the disconnect today but it does take serious resolve. We fought tooth & nail to find anything we could afford & I can count 3 items I’ve bought brand new to furnish the house. Get creative, but don’t give up! If you give up I can guarantee you’ll never own a home. I worked 2 jobs for years just to be able to save anything (or pay taxes). Open up your brain & get creative! Good luck!

[@katiebugbooth4212]

65 year old Boomer here and I remember those days. And I still live the same frugal way I grew up.

[@fisherman5845]

I'm a commercial fisherman in new England and the fish prices are terrible the prices to the boat are doing the same thing as they did in 2008

[@OscarLook-sl4qu]

Curious what you are getting for cod? Gillnetted out of DownEast ME in the 90’s. The catch was auctioned at the Portland Fish Exchange. We always hoped for a $1.00/lb for market cod. Anyway hope your catch is good and the price improves.

[@ranjithpowell6791]

I am setting up a Fund to buy up the World’s fishing boats. Please DM me to buy your boat for cash.

[@garybruckert32]

I just built a 16x20 deck with two 12' wide 3 step stairs. Basically 3k in lumber. 2 years ago, would have been 12k.

[@rangerdoc1029]

And 6 years ago it would have been under 2K

[@quidproquo3933]

@@rangerdoc1029not bad considering inflation tho. Been stacking lumber last couple weeks in the garage ! Good luck .

[@dennisreid9039]

I drove a for a major delivery company that serviced lumber yards around the country and I can tell you that you are correct about how slow the economy is.

[@Piccolo_Re]

Federal and state government regulations are what is hurting the economy. Businesses and contractors want to build but states have so many laws and regulations preventing the building of structures right now. It all comes down to those regulations getting in the way of businesses. The regulations are intentional to hurt entrepreneurs and their businesses. The goverment both state and local are following leftist ideologies to put all control in government. The more businesses they hurt the more citizens will look to relying on government. This goes beyond economics and into world order and control.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

Hauling sticks was difficult in the 1980's too. there was no money for building houses, but lots of missile launcher parts to haul.

[@cyborgbear7269]

What blows my mind is the price of lumber is still hanging high where I am. It feels artificial. Nobody is buying anything. I'd love to buy a bunch of lumber for cheap and store it in my barn.

[@LeahLewis-ny9iu]

Our economy is struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, bad weather conditions,foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.

[@ChloeCarter-kd7gz]

With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.

[@MelissaHobbs-qm8wi]

With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.

[@BrianAlbert-hh3pi]

This is definitely considerable! Do you think you could suggest any professionals or advisors I can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation.

[@MelissaHobbs-qm8wi]

Just research the name Desiree Ruth Hoffman. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

[@BrianAlbert-hh3pi]

I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.

[@rangerdoc1029]

It's a dilemma. Mills can't make money at that price, but buyers can't afford to purchase at that price

[@jimbobarooney2861]

Not really a dilemma, its just how the business cycle ends. Equilibrium will eventually happen but that's usually after a recession

[@chuckchan4127]

Welcome to the next Great Recession.

[@danielhutchinson6604]

@@chuckchan4127 The faces of Janet Yellen and J Powell do reflect a certain worn down appearance, as if telling lies does not endure reality for long?

[@chuckchan4127]

@@danielhutchinson6604 Telling lies is easy. Maintaining lies and not getting tripped up takes tons of effort and energy.

[@jonathanbueltel9853]

Glad I bought own mill, as a tree service owner

[@KA9DSL]

That's one of the reasons I stopped buying lumber at Home Depot, all my home projects cane to a total stop.

[@SpataWorks]

I started going to menards. Got tired of never having what i needed at home depot and i used to work there

[@soil-play]

​@@SpataWorkssame!

[@willh7690]

Lumber never should have been as high as it was. We were in a covid bubble from all that stimulus money. Home prices will not come down. People just won't be buying, and people will be stuck in their old low interest loans not able to sell. The economy will just be stagnant. Still not good but it's not gonna crash.

[@UneducatedEconomist]

Lumber was in very short supply before the covid stimulus.

[@willh7690]

@@UneducatedEconomist not really, international trade was screwed up in 2018 so prices went up a little that year but then came back down in 2019. 2020 is when prices sky rocketed. It was a bubble. All you have to do is look at historical prices year by year and is plain as can be that 2020 was artificially inflated so to people having too much time and too much "free"money at their disposal.

[@springsogourne]

Concrete construction here - we do large distribution buildings, low amount of jobs out for bid, and ones that were bid are not starting

[@shawnlinnehan7349]

This is good for me personally. I have land I have been developing and building out buildings on. I need a lot of lumber. Still need to make a chicken coop and greenhouse. I need a fence, but the price was too high awhile ago. Now the fence sections are almost $30 cheaper and I am putting up the fence.

[@billwhitis9997]

If you want to know the state of the economy, ask a carpenter. They are the first to feel the downturn and the last to feel the recovery.

[@russiachinanorthkoreastatetv]

The important thing to gain from this is if you strive to help educate others & empower them then you will always empower yourself in the process!

[@scottripley8535]

I'm a truck driver that works Saturdays doing construction, didn't need to work Saturdays under Trump but whatever. Your video taught me allot and If I can understand you anybody can. Great job, it's a gift to be able to teach as well as you

[@MadMike916]

Rather than lower prices builders offer concessions to keep prices elevated. A house sold for 500k with 50k concessions is not a 500k house. It’s a 450k house

[@pauliegee6980]

Im a trucker.... no freight is moving for more than it cost me to Move it

[@rasserfrasser]

Your explanation is that lumber is baked into the chain-of-demand. Like you said, a crash is not so much a drop in prices but the activity. Great info. Very well-rounded content in relation to these times. Best episode yet.

[@SigFigNewton]

If a whole economy is reducing activity, that’s an employment lowering phenomenon that would result in lower home prices given that demand is already super low and there are still a high number of housing units under construction

[@art2736]

It’s called price gouging bro. It only indicates greed and too much power and control in the hands of the greedy.

[@drunvert]

Nonsense

[@thomandstacieverroad8417]

​@@drunvert first of all it's not nonsense and secondly if you can give even one reason that it's not factual that it's greed that's causing this upturn in prices I'll apologize ..until then you're just an !diot

[@crmille1]

Yep, welcome to capitalism.

[@drunvert]

@@crmille1 Not perfect but the best system ever invented

[@adamsaidso]

Best video yet. You summed it up very clearly and precisely! Thank you for your incite and sharing it.

[@jennetal.984]

A famous hardware store in the middle of an always booming Brooklyn neighborhood is closing after 60 years

[@soil-play]

Organized retail theft may be the overriding factor in this case.

[@maplebones]

@@soil-play More likely online shopping. If you can think 2 or 3 days ahead, there's almost nothing that can't be found at half the price of retail. I'd like to support my local building supply but when they want $7 for the same hack saw blade that I can get for a buck on Ebay, it makes it hard to do. I probably average 5 online purchases every morning while I'm having my coffee.

[@jennetal.984]

@@soil-play does Amazon qualify as “organized retail theft” (ie made in you-know-where)?

[@JR-of5hp]

I bought a 3” hose clamp at Ace hardware $3.75!!!

[@NoamPitlick-bg8kw]

@@JR-of5hpis that high?

[@nneisler]

Missed the live - jumping in here now to jump into some lumber pricing.

[@MarkMcCormickFitness]

Some great lessons, insight and perspective. I very much appreciate your time for sharing this, especially for painting the picture of our reality in life right now.

[@billtharp3374]

Good work. I’m a lawyer in a rural area, but my grandpa was a carpenter. You have an eye for what I also have learned to see.

[@TheMarky26]

Houses are way to expensive..The whole economy needs a correction..

[@allenhargis4317]

I deliver to RV factories on Oregon. Over half my stops are shut down for 2 to 4 weeks. Mfg homes factories are doing ok, but those are low end buildings.

[@fraa888grindr6]

Load rates are in toilet - I'm a truck driver barely making it. I was out for 111 days straight, home 10, now will be out probably another 60 days.

[@MichaelHigginsJR]

Solid commentary, Found a new channel with some relatable content.

[@goodcitizen4587]

Interesting analysis. Thanks!

[@JasonAldeann-bt4xf]

Inventory in east texas is insane ..piling up

[@SigFigNewton]

It’s how many bubbles work. -A surge in demand for thing -gives high growth rate in sales -and causes expectations of high future growth rates -resulting in a ramp up of supply … -and then it turns out that the surge in demand actually caused *lower* demand in the future because everyone already just bought the thing

[@SigFigNewton]

Not as pure an example as peloton, but there was definitely home buying demand pulled forward in time by low rates, leaving less demand in the fut.. less demand right now

[@4freess]

Ship it to Canada, still pricey up here.

[@TrailTime.]

Rates are going to have to fall soon. I’m a building contractor and the kitchen and bathroom remodels have dried up completely in my area.

[@bpb5541]

Well what I think happens i the short end goes to zero really fast .. the 10 year dips slightly and then surges to above 12%.. which means mortgages are going to go up not down. I am to tired to explain why this is going to happen.

[@didgeridood]

Appreciate your input!

[@loraann54fi10]

They've created a real bottle neck in every industry. Almost as if it was planned. But... surely not.

[@762foryou]

Home Depot and Lowes have been like a morgue the last few months.

[@OldDogRevamped]

Not in the Pacific Northwest.

[@JohnDoe-ef3wo]

I have noticed people walking around but not buying anything beyond a few tiny things like doorknobs and light switches. The isles are packed with inventory and it just sits and sits. The other thing I noticed is all the lanes are closed except for the shelf checkout, and a cashier at the lumber side. 😮

[@melissachartres3219]

Refrigerated dead bodies everywhere?

[@SigFigNewton]

@@melissachartres3219more organized than everywhere

[@SigFigNewton]

@@melissachartres3219I have a hunch this is why lumber prices are down, actually. With all these stiff-as-boards… nobody needs to use lumber

[@bryanbernart439]

taxes and insurance costs hugely contribute to the problem.

[@stevefournier6375]

Awesome thanks for lumber update, fixing up my old house, very timely information!

[@batape1965]

When the price of lumber skyrocketed 27% in six months (Sept '23-March '24), was that an indication of a booming economy? Sorry, but the price of lumber alone doesn't tell the overall economy's story any better than the stock market.

[@globalpioneer5076]

Stores closing does. There are 1000s closing stores.

[@jamies3272]

Demolishing the economy with inflation does have consequences. Go figure

[@lookintoit8685]

Bruh prices in Sushi need to catchup because Food is 2-4X what it should be

[@lendumore]

Damn UE! You came a long way brother. I remember when you had 18k subs & things weren't going great but you stuck it out like a champ. Now look at you. My man got a new whip & you increased your subs by 783%!! Congrats brother and thank you for all the content. You've taught me so much over the last couple years. Cheers! 🍻

[@neveragain733]

Simon is an excellent example of a guy who doesn't give up. Hes aleays researching things. Hes rational. He thinks ahead, and most of all he has common sense.

[@dwukropek]

There is also another problem with boomer houses, they did no maintenance for like 30 years. The houses they have are in shitty condition and require a lot of effort to make them liveble.

[@soil-play]

You are so right!

[@briand2614]

And they are pissed when they go to sell and are told their house is worth much less than the comps.

[@aaroncook5928]

Another frustration I have with the older homes is their design is horrible. It looks like a child design the layout of the home compared to what I would prefer.

[@jackmehoff5523]

I don't think you know what your talking about.

[@aspensulphate]

@@jackmehoff5523 Anyone who stereotypes people by age is showing a lack of intelligence.

[@donbrutcher4501]

Back in the day, the 60's, a hard working dude could afford to save up to buy a house. However, the house was under 1200 sq. ft. ( some starter homes under 1000) not over 2000 ft. like they are today. A lot has changed. Some for the better and some for the worse. I was born in the 40's and wouldn't go back.

[@brandonshambach9357]

Great show as always. Thank you.

[@RearviewMirror-ij2pr]

My sister works for Lowe's and after many months of reduced hours, they are now doing mass layoffs corporate wide. She said sales have really plummeted.

[@SigFigNewton]

Yup. High home prices really hurting Lowes

[@marks-0-0]

And Biden says the economy is stronger than ever....

[@bpb5541]

LOW and HD are both in trouble. Housing is in trouble. CRE is in trouble. Regional Banks are in trouble, car dealers are in trouble, fast food... retail. So what comes next?

[@JB-qt3wo]

@@bpb5541you’re right about that.

[@HopeForUs5]

​@bpb5541 Agreed. It's been like a 3 yr waiting game to see what will actually bring it all to a head. We kept thinking the stock market bubble HAD to pop, yet here it is going higher every day. Nothing makes sense...so many of us are broke and savings is gone, debt is at an all-time high (both gov't and personal), but still nothing "breaks".

[@getinthespace7715]

In my area I can build my own house for less than $100/sq ft. Homes are listed for $400-500/sq ft where a 70 year old house that needs work is listed for $400/sq ft. Airbnb's in our area bring in $50k+ a season. Long term rentals. $36k a year for an old 1500 sq ft house. See how it goes... might make $500k profit on building myself a house.

[@sunshinevitamin4428]

What area is it at?

[@ralphramirez1979]

What state do you live in

[@mofo9900]

Thanks for the troll post to dude of course you didn't respond to anybody he just made a bunch of shit up

[@getinthespace7715]

@mofo9900 , I'm not telling yall where I live. 🤣😂 It's a small town with about 4k people on a big lake. Airbnb's drive the prices up sky high. Apparently they make 50k a season or more. Long term rentals are 2500-3k a month for those that can't or don't do airBNB's. Builders don't really care about this town because there is a larger cluster of towns about 50k people 50 miles away where prices are similar, but demand is even higher and more consistent. I bet you can look around zillow at small towns in tourist trappy areas with heavy Airbnb load and can find the same conditions all over America. I don't think this place is unique at all.

[@allen2zulu]

Remember from GFC, start was 2007 and prices bottomed in 2011 - 4 years. This one will be bigger, longer

[@UneducatedEconomist]

More on a percentage base was printed during QE 1,2,3,4

[@patcivitella1]

Thanks for your info - enjoy it!

[@pcnetworx1]

2020 will echo through the markets for ten to twenty years

[@DisposableSupervillainHenchman]

Hell, we’re still dealing with the echo of 2008. The people most affected by recessions almost never get back to where they were financially. Meanwhile, the wealthiest almost do way better. Lather, rinse, repeat.

[@donbrutcher4501]

Something like 40% of Chinese commercial real estate developer's loans are denominated in US dollars.

[@bpb5541]

That is super scary

[@mktwatcher]

Excellent Analysis Video. Thank you for Sharing.

[@mikepaulus4766]

I see a lot of ads on KZbin advertising "I will buy your house." I absolutely think these ads are from institutional investment.

[@jameslee-dp6cb]

Insurance rates are jumping up at unbelievable rates. This means that no matter how low housing prices go, people wont be buying considering that banks require insurance in order to get a house financed. House sales will plummet pretty soon. The contractors will be lucky to sell house for 10 cents on the dollar.

[@user-kv5gh6le6y]

To few people understand that insurance is such an important tax that the financial sector forces everyone to pay.

[@zachlafond2652]

@@user-kv5gh6le6y This. Throw property taxes in there too.

[@alanwong8307]

People always will want a house, no matter how much it costs. Banks will introduce longer terms, 45 year mortgages, so that people can still "afford" a home.

[@rudy_2299]

Mortgage insurance is a Obama tax added too

[@Wooohooohooo]

If they want to sale new homes, they need to reduce the square footage, because not everyone wants a huge home.

[@DisposableSupervillainHenchman]

Won’t happen. The homes we need at the prices we can afford is like wishing on a star.

[@Wooohooohooo]

@@DisposableSupervillainHenchman Than it justifies I'm correct, although never did I admit it will take place.

[@DisposableSupervillainHenchman]

@@Wooohooohooo Nah, I’m not doubting your statement. We’re in the same boat.

[@defidad5569]

Many Retailers call the charges for too much inventory - Excess Inventory on a Profit and Loss Report.

[@williamgatheist1314]

I live in Northern B.C. and lumber pricing can kill us. What I do not get is over the past couple of years how much Russian Lumber has come off the world market in the past 24 months, and who is making up this shortfall with falling prices?

[@user-ce2yc4no1f]

I'm pretty sure you "nailed it"! (A pun for a guy who works in lumber!). I have a friend who owns and operates a saw mill. He said "slow as dog shit"!

[@bvidude8064]

Nice! Another one for the Dad Joke list! 🤣🤣😂😂

[@melissachartres3219]

Is dog shit known for how slow it is?

[@SigFigNewton]

@@melissachartres3219more importantly: is giving that man’s dog diarrhea the key to speeding up lumber sales?

[@user-ce2yc4no1f]

@@melissachartres3219 Yes. A dog will make you walk them quite a while before taking the "poop". All dogs know that the walk is over after they "poop". They prefer to go for long walks, not short ones.

[@melissachartres3219]

@@user-ce2yc4no1f Okay then... I see. Thanks for the reply. So the expression isn't referring to the feces itself... more of the event that transpires.

[@howtoin60secondsorless65]

First time I watched your videos a couple of years ago lumber prices were skyrocketing.

[@BobbBond007]

First time video. I like you analysis prudent and objective. You break down things in very logical manner.

[@UneducatedEconomist]

Thank you 🤙

[@DavidPotter-k1d]

Last time I went to get scraps at the truss company here, they gave me a pickup load of number one 2x4s, enough to build an 18 foot long greenhouse...it was in the dumpster, but one of the guys dug it out for me.

[@rickreese5794]

Permits in WA state are intentionally being slowed by state. All by design 😢

[@professora.9603]

I see trailers being built like crazy, but I think they use more pli- wood than wood.

[@mrstackracks1189]

I always thought the crash meant prices going down untill u said its the slow down of activity im all ears

[@foreignerescapestothephi-lj3ls]

I live in the Philippines. And the cash price at the stump is the highest price we have ever seen! For Mahogany! The buyer is giving me $600 U.S.D. For 6” diameter 30 foot high tree. That price is UP from $300 per tree last year!

[@bpb5541]

Lumber is a forward indicator.

[@quidproquo3933]

been stockpiling lumber got some projects in the future , . Still waiting for fasteners to come back to reality tho …

[@philipdamask2279]

A lot of your stored lumber will go south?

[@toddmck]

That was awesome, thanks for being real.

[@brodyalden]

Thanks Simon!

[@user-py9zw9id9o]

No one talks about the shortage of skilled labor

[@bpb5541]

A lot of college educated men don't even know how to change a tire, spark plugs, or build a fence etc. They will pay thousands of dollars over their lifetime for not knowing basic skills. Smart possibly .. but there are more than one kind of smart.

[@maplebones]

@@bpb5541 That's why we need more immigrants. They learn fast and aren't afraid of getting their hands dirty. I have 2 daughters who married good guys, but neither of them would ever change a tire. It drives me nutz.

[@danmaloney3187]

Homes on the market are in a "price reduced" frenzy now!

[@LumberjackLandlord]

In very few numbers and factually speaking..... they are record wish pricing.

[@stevenmorris2293]

Not in San Diego

[@melissachartres3219]

What does "price reduced" frenzy mean? And why quotes around price reduced? So the prices aren't really reduced, but the sellers/agents claim that they are? Frenzy how? Are there booming sales going on all over the nation or something? It doesn't seem that way at all.

[@SigFigNewton]

Supply of existing homes is still unusually low. Supply of new homes is unusually high. The amount extra one has to pay to get a new home is weirdly low because of this. Most of the price reductions on new builds are in the form of “incentives”, allowing the builder to keep official sales prices from dipping more yet

[@LumberjackLandlord]

@SigFigNewton supply of new homes will go down as builders are now only building what was ordered.

[@Noxtreme]

You are right about a lot and I think what you're seeing is mostly correct. I'm impressed actually and I am a full time trader for the last 6 years. There is 1 flaw right at the beginning of your argument/logic though. Lumber producers can easily sell lower especially if production costs come down, which they are starting too. There is no loss on their part only on the store owners part if they are holding over priced inventory. Producers AND vendors raised prices a huge amount due to massive demand spikes, tariffs, and fear with the fires and other disasters in the last 3-4 years. Opportunity pricing at its finest. Its everywhere since cvid. What is happening now is the entire commodity market is figuring out that people will stop buying at some point. NO ONE should pay 20 bucks for McDonalds. I am hopeful that this might actually be the breaking point where we finally see inflation come back to where PEOPLE need it to be in order to give more people a chance at living the American dream. Hopefully the fed sees this in time and cools interest at the right time but this is another issue. Consumers/builders are not bottomless money pits so at some point they just accept they can't afford things or they are not worth doing, which causes inventory to go up. Producers notice this and slow production due to the inventory backup. Their profits do go down a little but not a lot. They might even make more money if their production costs fall as the economy slows. These futures contract differences show a producer that was late to slow production. They didn't realize the jig is actually up, maybe. There simply is not enough people that need this that can afford it. Its the sellers that eat the backup in most cases and this results in lower profits (and a pull back in the stock if they are public). I don't know as much about lumber as you so Im speaking more generally but it is not only lumber. Cars are another great example right now. Very cool you get to see this supply demand imbalance manifesting though. Before I became full time trader I was an account manager at large home improvement product company. So I have some insight about how pricing works from producer to consumer and producer to builder all the way down the distribution channels. This might be a great indicator for the masses that maybe, just maybe normalcy can return and even though prices are not going to return to what they used to be. Maybe they wont be SOOOO extreme that few can afford them. I also like to at least try to maintain a positive outlook. Keeps me from spreading CRASH fud or losing money on a crash idea. We have MORE then enough of that and A TON of traders and investors fall victim to that illness. A booming and falling economy is fairly easy to recognize. Ours has been booming for a while because companies raised prices massively and leveraged our fear of not being able to get what we need or want anymore to make even more money. You see this in their insane margins. Also it became more expensive to produce anything because every corp took the opportunity to milk the fear so it became a cycle of MASSIVE inflation. A race to the top. Now hopefully we really see if the soft landing is possible. Inflation is only .6 % off target so cuts are coming especially since we are seeing labor slow with sales. There are tons of signs coming to light recently that support that it is now time for the fed to make debt cheaper so people can keep buying things they probably dont need. These larger cycles suddenly present and get price in then SLOWLY return to normal if/when they need to. It an indication of pain for the consumer and a reason for the fed to cool interest rates with the hopes they don't create or run into a new demand spike. Especially one that is cyclical like cvid. Unfortunately this also probably means company profits slow some and long term investment accounts stop getting INSAIN gains every year (which is really just them catching up). Soft landing is IF the fed sees it in time lets it settle in enough and then cuts interest again bringing us back to kinda where we were 5 or 6 years ago in terms of interest rates. This also allows producers to borrow more again instead of just raising prices and we continue on like "normal times." Hopefully.

[@kavanobrien6547]

In life many people have never been able to see the wood for the trees.

[@jameskendrick573]

It's dropping here at least 100 a day open no renters chattanooga has almost 6k apartments not even houses are renting are country is over

[@762foryou]

We looked into Chattanooga back in the early 2000s, beautiful homes at great deals. But, once we discovered that the murder rate was higher than a couple West Coast cities, hard pass.

[@DisposableSupervillainHenchman]

@@762foryou Chattanooga is almost a third black. As soon as an area gets to be at or above the national proportion (just under 13%) of said demographic, the area turns to crap.

[@stevenmorris2293]

😮

[@SigFigNewton]

No renters? There are positive impacts of that. Lower home prices are good for local economies

[@CosmosArchipelago]

@@DisposableSupervillainHenchman yeah. No way my white ass would ever live there

[@kurtsmith4657]

Yeah the lumber prices are tanking. 2x4x14ft priced at $4.11 per board on wholesale and still cant move it, crazy. Interests rates sure arent helping. We been in a recession for the last few quarters but stuff is really about to nose dive. Consumer debt is at an all time high and folks cant pay their bills, let alone put money in the bank.

[@searobin25]

Kinda suck over here where we were so relient on the trade. Now we're just in restructure phase in a post Contracting global economy.

[@marioremondino9837]

As a builder in Phx Az. We are still doing well. Slower, but still ok as there is massive demand for single family. My personal issue is land prices. The general public is hoarding the land and wanting stupid prices where it’s getting harder to build and make money. The better economy for housing is 800k-1.2m right now. Selling in under 30days. It’s the average 400-500k home that sits. I would build smaller homes and take less profit but increase the volume. Can’t do that when folk want 150k an acre when 2019-2020 it was 50k. April 2020 the realestate bumped 30% across the board over night. The day the stay at home ban was lifted, housing went out of control. Still don’t know why that was the trigger to buy single family

[@zanemn]

This is basically what the Fed has intended with the increased rates. A slowing of the economy to cool inflation.

[@SpataWorks]

Now people got tons of credit card debt with crazy rates

[@orbitalair2103]

But this inflation isn't consumer driven. It's DEBT driven. And it's about to get much much worse as the USA runs out of the ability to simply print money. Brics and Asia Ascending.

[@762foryou]

Lowering rates will only cause more inflation inside of the US. Raising rates one or two full points now will crush inflation in nine months. Short-term pain for Main St., long-term prosperity setting up a 15year Bull market for everyone in '25. But, they won't.

[@UneducatedEconomist]

Rate adjustment has less impact on inflation than what people think

[@762foryou]

@@UneducatedEconomist Possibly True. What we are facing hasn't happened in the US before after the extreme, unprecedented money printing combined with massive foreign investment in US treasuries which will not renew the investment.

[@raybod1775]

@@762foryou The latest Fed money printing us unprecedented in U.S. history, with predictable results of unending inflation until the economy crashes.

[@theApeShow]

Problem is US debt refinancing, we're at the max threshold any higher and Government would default without action. Lots of gov debt is coming up for refinancing and will continue to eat into budgets, or just snowball into more debt. Thinking we have to cut government spending and programs, then the rates would follow. Gaining "efficiency" while rates come down. I don't know why our leaders refuse to cut things. It's a ridiculous situation we've found ourselves in.

[@RonWilliams-Hoodle]

Just found your channel. Great content! Thank you! Are you tracking/ reporting mostly on Canada, or US as well?

[@braunreinhold6020]

This is interesting. I'm knocking on 80's door and work full time at a saw mill. I'm not seeing a steady stream of logs coming into the yard. Plus the stock pile of logs is getting is gradually depleting. Thank you for the heads up.

[@dougprobert5378]

Hoping to see 10.00 osb. ....

[@mickeydean249]

The problem with housing is that you have an open border and ease of access of the wealthy landlords artificially inflating the housing market ala Blackrock and Vangard subsidieries. This will prevent housing prices from dropping without there being a radical shift in ideology...

[@DisposableSupervillainHenchman]

Similar problems in the UK and elsewhere. They continue to allow hordes of third world immigrants into their country while also never addressing the severe housing shortage. So it goes for the US. Private equity wants to own homes and charge rent at a greater profit, so they do everything to keep housing as scarce as possible to maximize quarterly returns. Pure scumbags.

[@danah358]

Housing construction has a lot of headwinds currently. These negative factors include: - builders long-time focus on building large luxury homes limiting affordability - high prices of luxury homes - few buyers can qualify for mortgages for luxury homes - homeowners insurance has shot up in many desirable areas of the country, TX,FL,CA,etc limiting mortgage qualifying - retiring boomers looking for smaller homes not lux homes - Powell/the Fed said recently we will not be going back to super low interest rates, thereby limiting future refi options/affordability - local taxes have jumped up in many of the desirable areas of the country - income has not risen nearly as much as single fam homes The smart home buyer pays cash limiting need for PMI and insurance, unfortunately it’s a small cohort of those adults wanting/needing home.

[@fergferguson7370]

Someone just sent me this video….you are a surprise. A very well informed REGULAR JOE…I’m a follower now… I agree with almost everything you say…if the average citizen listen to you they would be much better off. Kudos👍

[@danah358]

It was sad to read that most cities have lots of properties, mostly condos, sitting vacant. Properties vacant should be taxed at a higher rate, to incentivize occupancy.

[@dwi5114]

Good thinking.

[@crankfotton]

Brilliant...

[@judd_s5643]

Sounds like a communist to me! If I owned the property I shouldn’t be penalized for not using it. It’s mine!!! Get it. Perhaps the government should Jack your income tax because you’re not using your brain!

[@marcielynn4886]

I had to buy lumber at an inflated price but when I turned it into a house. All's well.😊

[@bpb5541]

For now.

[@EnergeticWaves]

If fed drops rates now speculators will drive up oil, lumber and everything else way up because a lower rate means they can borrow more to buy what you want. This is the reality.

[@neveragain733]

You are speaking cold hard facts. You are a realist. Many just stick their heads in the sand.

[@Joy..citizen]

Good old boomer talk "we bought a house at even higher interest rates"

[@DoubleBarrel6969]

Price to income ratio was sustainable back then, boomers had it easy!

[@batape1965]

Prices are high, but rates are not historically high. Just about average.

[@SigFigNewton]

@@batape1965interest paid is greatly increased by price increases even if rates stay same

[@user-bw7db7mi1l]

Your correct!!! Only problem current home buyers haven’t realized??? At stable interest rates a police officer and school teacher can’t afford to live in a $500,000 home that is 3500 sq/ft . They’re gonna learn the hard way, why we lived in 1600-1800 sq/ft homes when we were younger, without a pool and a $25,000 fence, a bmw and a $90,000 truck. Yep, they gonna learn, it’ll be a sad learning experience, but they gonna learn.

[@skeezix8156]

@@DoubleBarrel6969they all had different paths. My dad had four sisters and seven brothers all around the boomer generation. Most got those sweet jobs right out of school, most didn’t make it to graduation because they weren’t allowed to speak their native language and had the shit beaten out of them. So off to the workforce they went. Building houses with asbestos siding, cut in half by tower cables setting chokers for logging companies, died from the cleaning chemicals supplied at the public school kitchen, etc. No unemployment, no disability, no welfare for some of them. Just a shit life of $1.65 federal minimum wage and 60 hours a week of bs work nobody could do today for $50 an hour

[@MikeGowan-xo9yv]

Yup, I asked the fence builder up the street from my Moms and asked a price per foot, and he told me the people he was working for booked 2 months in advance and lumber went up. I asked, did you buy that lumber at that price and store it?…of course not…therefore his point is moot, when he bid it, price was one thing, when he got there 2 months later, he lost money then…

[@Billy97ify]

There is a lot of shadow inventory. Builders are making units look sold to conceal the fact that they cannot sell units. There are whole empty neighbourhoods and apartment buildings, I have heard. Most resales are not getting action either.

[@rickertcoles]

From paying for day care and college, to managing mortgage payments. I'm approaching retirement yet inflation is getting worse. How can I generate more income to retire with at least $3m for long term care? I have about 750k in savings.

[@GeorgeNN]

investors like you should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder.

[@wineski]

You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 14.3%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an advisor.

[@greeyyggg]

I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?

[@wineski]

I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with the popularly ‘’Amber Kay Wright” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look her up.

[@laportafrank]

thank you for putting this out, it has rekindled the fire to my goal... was able to spot Amber after inputting her full name on the web, she seems highly professional with over a decades of experience.