MARKET CHAOS: WHY THIS FOMC REACTION COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR TRADERS!

[@karlkessler6017]

The no rebound was one hell of a surprise.

[@renaissanceman5847]

perhaps not today... but next week is another animal.

[@webguyz1]

Jason, what are you using to show how crowded the market is?

[@user-vi3sz3fg2r]

Thanks for making this a freebie :)

[@anderson6379]

Literally the first person whose opinion I wanted to hear. Loving the learning and lessons. Thanks for your sharings

[@pistol90pete]

TOTALLY appreciate your no BS commentary speaking from experience and knowledge of HOW the market works vs the hype and talking heads on cable. Thanks, Jason!

[@RJC10101]

Great video Mr Shapiro

[@davesmall5392]

Thanks Jason I hope you made a motza on AUD short a while back.

[@spiderfed]

You're so cool, thanks Jason!

[@TopOfPyramid]

4:08 it was a massacre in the belly of the curve… what a future movie quote 😅

[@WillyLowman-dh4mo]

Key update. Thank you for your thoughts.

[@bogreen5204]

Today was tough... My gold position got hammered, but I'm not down yet. Thanks for the analysis. Sell everything was the order of the day! Let's see what turns back on first: bonds, gold, equities...

[@bpb5541]

I am super excited. I made thousands yesterday.

[@colzi10]

Watching the market's ups and downs shows how quickly things can change. In the market, strategic, informed trading isn't a choice; it's a must. Remember, caution is as crucial as ambition here. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...i have delve deeply into active trading which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility... I'm especially grateful to Loraine Souvenir tactics and strategies…

[@OscarReed-o4d]

Having access to reliable information is crucial for us as investors to succeed both financially and in life. This is valuable, I've just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage without sweat, very much appreciate this

[@delacay]

Surprised to see her mentioned here! She tailors trading courses to suit beginners’ needs and really knows her stuff. Her advice has been invaluable to my trading journey-definitely worth it!

[@bigmack1993]

Kicking off this year with such high hopes, especially with Bitcoin, has been a journey. Let’s be real while hodling has its place, those waiting for only the big skyrocket moments might be missing out. Day trading has given me more steady, consistent growth thanks to Loraine Souvenir guidance and her daily signals. Couldn’t have done it without her!

[@Charlieadkins-g6x]

It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Loraine Souvenir. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure

[@lucoeli]

Thank you for sharing your experience. She’s helped grow my reserve, despite inflation, from $87k to $246k as of today..Her insights and daily siignals are worth following.

[@APC_Trades]

Just wanted to say I really appreciate these videos you put out. Thanks so much.

[@Nilz4FR]

Thanks Jason. I had my best day this year shorting the NQ

[@acquisitionsmarketing]

Literally the only video I was willing to watch after today.

[@zentrader1734]

I remember you saying over half a year or so ago, that when the market convinced retail to actually 'buy the dip', that's likely going to be the point where we can get a real correction. Great video!

[@Datwuzadot]

This is where market psychology will help u make a ton of money! Excellent dissection! Im going to continue to stay cash on the sidelines!

[@sikdersu]

Great observations Jason! Love that bit about BTD market skew and MSTR ponzi leading to the best time in history to buy BTC 😍

[@nathanaelmccasland2349]

Keep wishing on the MSTR ponzi... I dare you to short it!

[@zanevarvel7572]

This was a fantastic tutorial. I will be a CMR subscriber in due time Mr Shapiro, keep it up. “If they buy this dip, we have problems”

[@wanglelife]

Bought the dip.

[@SirJeffers567]

Nicely rationalised Jason. Thanks 👍

[@NotoriousBMG]

Awesome market update thank you

[@aggerleejones200]

another no nonsense, straightforward, truth spitting video from the Wiz, Jason Shapiro! Very much appreciative of the knowledge and wisdom you share Bro... thank you and happy holidays!

[@EquityProphets]

Happy Holidays! I'm always grateful to hear your perspectives- you are providing a lot of value with these reports. Many blessings, Jason!🔥🔥🔥

[@Ran_G]

Thank you Jason

[@chewie1355]

6:26 what does marker confirmation look like?

[@chavocanuck]

"Market" confirmation. I have the same question. Is this based on next day (in this case Dec 19) close confirming the direction of the previous day (in this case Dec 18)?

[@cody9419]

@@chavocanuck I'm pretty sure it's means price goes in the direction it should based on the news. I don't follow equities. But, for currencies, for example, if they raise rates & the price goes up, as it should, that's confirmation. If it doesn't, then that's a market failure. The JPY this summer, for example was an example. They raised going from negative to positive for the first time in a long time but their currency didn't rise. It was later explained by the unwind of the yen carry trade. He seems to use the high/low on the day of the news as the threshold & a good price to put a stop loss. That's the way I understand it, anyways.... Lmk if I'm wrong, thanks

[@chavocanuck]

@cody9419 yeah, I think Jason likes to observe market closing prices and in general end of day activity.

[@cody9419]

@chavocanuck yeah, closing price is usually considered important by everyone I've been watching. But, the question is about market confirmation.

[@fredcrossman5133]

Excellent commentary. One of the very best on the web today. You remonstrated that the market was overvalued and overbought. Nice COT charts on the dollar vs other currencies. Good strategy admonition if the dip buyers can muster a rally with their remaining cash. You deserve to relax with a beer,

[@franciscoborja877]

learning a lot from you Jason thank you for the work you put out

[@stevenmorgan9549]

Thanks for the insight

[@algorhythmy]

Such a conundrum Jason, your YT channel deserves millions of followers for the knowlege and insight but we just can't have that many contrarians in the market, physics prevents it

[@codymacs]

Thanks Jason! A lot to think about.

[@cheznikos]

Thank you for the video. When you say lets see if "they" buy the dip I think it would be more fair to say whichever crowd trades futures which isn't necessarily everybody. Ppl have been massively buying into passive ETFs past few years and November was huge. Yet this doesn't necessarily show in futures positioning.

[@AT-in9ld]

what is the positioning indicator?

[@MickeyMekhael]

thanks so much for ur time , u r the best

[@buckrogers8672]

Excellent, good time to be a subscriber

[@28shwk29]

Ohh Boy , Was i waiting for a Video . Just in Time ...

[@TopTrade1]

Great video. I like your thought process. Thank you Jason.

[@deamonkind]

Thanks Jason, learning a lot from your videos!

[@gerritalexanderherholdt9631]

Thank you Jason. May I ask what the name of your crowded indicator is called?

[@anonymouslyominous3]

Thanks and merry Christmas!

[@ulpiustnt]

The voice of reason !

[@cody9419]

Will you put out a KZbin video when you're starting to see evidence of a market setting up for $ shorts? I can't afford a subscription to your newsletter. That AUD short back in October was nice. I would probably still be in it, all things considered. Either way, thanks for sharing your experience.

[@Jay-jd1bi]

i would say if you cant afford the newsletter then you cant afford to be speculating in the market. sorry

[@cody9419]

@Jay-jd1bi thanks for your advice! I'll keep that in mind. 😅

[@jw1522]

Really great once again

[@wanderer631]

Thanks for your honest insights❤

[@DeafPanthers]

Absolutely great information and ideas to think about. I learn so much and thank you for putting this out!

[@dynamici]

Yep, jumped the short gun in November after watching and waiting from July. Still happy to hold and add as opportunities arise. Only 0.3% at risk currently.

[@Daniel_CLopes]

Why would buying the dip be a problem? Thank you!

[@elation0x]

Thanks Jason

[@donalmadden7019]

Interesting Stuff. Great vid Jason.

[@gustavogomes4998]

Where do you get that clean COT report graph on trading view?

[@Jay-jd1bi]

his webpage has the TV indicators

[@Trader552]

Thanks

[@scottackley9948]

Great podcast! Thank you.

[@johnlt1387]

Great analysis Mr. Shapiro- Thank you for giving your insights, it is much appreciated; especially for the traders out there who have no mentors. I think you hit the nail on the head with MSTR thesis and I find that stock compelling to say the least. He definitely has all his eggs in one basket so to speak, so it could go incredibly well or terribly bad eventually. Keep the videos coming! Sincerely, a Trader like you.

[@PRIDEMACHINERY]

Thank you for your video, Joe Chaparo

[@zipperdingo6385]

Big fan of your rational statements J.S.

[@jonq21]

Man, i love your style bro. how straightup you are. mannnnnn!!!

[@andrzejk3369]

Hi Jason you are the watcher of eternal tide listening to your comments returning from the Christmas party

[@doomsday1105]

The thumbnail game is strong with this one!

[@jonathanlee5185]

Thanks 👍

[@maxk8396]

Thank you

[@BoundMusic]

this crash is a gift for whoever is sitting on cash

[@BourgeoisBazer]

Classy as always

[@RichardKut-j7m]

First time listener, good stuff. Thank you,

[@richardansel6255]

Great stuff

[@editman1477]

Numero Uno!! Thank you, Jason!

[@a.l.m.3865]

Thank you Jason!

[@IngentingErTilfeldig]

Hehe, love your MSTR comment ✨ And I couldn’t agree more 👍

[@michaelstock9351]

Great video

[@ajobha]

I love watching your reports and they are very informative. Regarding MSTR, I request you to watch some videos from MSTR True North where they discuss how Saylor is selling the volatility to hedge funds. They also talk of a scenario of what happens when bitcoin drops to 18000, and how MSTR would still stay afloat. I am sure you are surprised to hear this, but unless you watch the videos it is very hard to understand their 'financial engineering'

[@nathanaelmccasland2349]

I concur! Jason, your comment today about MSTR shows your hand. You have not done the due diligence on this one, buddy. I respect the he'll out of the work you do, but on this one, you need some education.

[@ajobha]

Please watch episode 11 released today 12/18.

[@nathanaelmccasland2349]

So much value in today's episode!!!!!!

[@kijunsung]

As I understand it, MSTR bonds are not secured. Most are very low interest and many are zero interest. There is no monthly or yearly servicing required. There are due dates but they don't mature until 2028 and some go into 2030 and beyond. Accordingly, there is no imminent threat of MSTR having to liquidate its holdings even if the price were to drop down to unfathomable levels.

[@GilBreban]

Why if they buy the dip this time, it's going to be a problem ? Thanks.

[@tobiashernandez1515]

Greatly appreciate your insight , it’s seldom I find a contrarian response that fits my description of what I’m confused about.🥂… Thank you…..

[@CjackJamie]

OMG. Market taught me a lesson now. I removed my stop because I believed we get the dip and instant rebound. Didn't happen and we went lower. Come on this thing is hard...

[@crowdedmarketreport]

It is not easy...

[@brookboybrookboy935]

Hello Jason. How much does it cost to have your indicator (COT report and COT index)? And, is it downloadable for MT4? Thank you.

[@Jay-jd1bi]

check his website for this info

[@victor-su8bd]

Jason I heard you say that “when the bears buy the dip then we are screwed” at least 5 times this year

[@DVincia]

i dont understand this part though.. why is buying the dip bad for the market? shouldn't it support the market instead?

[@nathan500100]

"if they sell the dip" how do we determine they are selling the dip? selling day after? premarket stocks are up now. just curious

[@Jay-jd1bi]

positioning data

[@Billy-BKK]

Is that indicator a proprietary one?

[@rod7407]

Saylor is borrowing using converts at nearly 0% and issuing equity. Even if BTC drops well below his average cost he is not a forced seller. This is why he is not using simple corporate bonds or loans to avoid exactly what you are concerned about. Now MSTR will surely decline with BTC but that is different than having t o liquidate BTC.

[@fibbtrader]

Saylor has nothing to loose. Its all those zero coupon bond holders who will be left holding the bag

[@camcarl1294]

True. I think his strategy is a lot more sophisticated than he is given credit for.

[@nathanaelmccasland2349]

Exactly. Jason has no idea what is really happening with this trade. I wish he would study up and follow @mstrtruenorth. Ben & Peter over there is making so much sense.

[@PeacefulBrit]

Can you talk about the impact on the 10 yr on the next one - would be great to hear your take. Thanks 👏

[@chavocanuck]

Likely 10-yr yields rose with fed funds down because for now bond vigilantes feel fed cut is UNWARRANTED. 10-yr will only get a heavy bid when there are clear signs the economy is going into the toilet. Maybe there are lots of other trades to do while we wait for when/if that happens.

[@AT-in9ld]

my understanding is saylor is not on leverage, the ATM offerings are not leverage, the bonds are leverage which he sold like 7B bonds against 47B BTC dont quote me

[@jsloan128]

The OG!

[@leebeswick4732]

Process and pragmatism. Great stuff Jason

[@D9t-p8w]

How is a lower interest seen as negative for stocks? And not just an opportunity for profit taking? Respectfully as a student

[@dasit6034]

market had this rate cut priced in, after the annoucement it priced in the cuts for next year (which were announced to go from 4 to 2)

[@mattwilmshurst8456]

When the markets do the opposite of the expected (given the news) it can be an inflection point.

[@michaelstephens6775]

I was hoping bonds would have done better too. I guess the hawkishness going forward ...i don't know

[@MartinJG100]

Jason, do you not think that freezing the planned rate cut created a knee jerk reaction on inflationary concerns, hence the fall in bonds. There are also unfilled gaps on the 10 & 20 year. Any old excuse will do :).

[@GEOPOLITICALANALYSIS]

It's the bull market, don't worry about it. Resistance and support being tested, all is great for now!

[@marc_aussie]

The more you see ‘clean’ levels respected and neat patterns on the chart, the more you know weak hands are supporting the market. Just look at the daily chart the last 6 weeks, you can draw a very clean line up the daily lows, took it all out in 2 hours.

[@zenveg]

Ever get "deer in headlights" on the best trading day of the year as a futures trader rather than just pushing the dang button? Why is that?

[@CryptoBullTrader]

What was that

[@bobsaget1202]

FUD fear uncertainty and doubt. The opposite of FOMO

[@karlkessler6017]

Great question. I think we're just so used to "V" that this move just seemed wrong. Different. For me, I couldn't get out of a losing trade. Very strange. I'm sure a lot of other folks got stung too.

[@hailstone_]

@@karlkessler6017Yea everyone accustomed to the insta V shapes

[@loupasternak]

Monty said it best .... "Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition"

[@dantheman0007]

Hi Jason, wondering if I lose access to Trading View indicators if I don't renew monthly membership

[@Jay-jd1bi]

you do but it may be a part of the charts only membership. not sure

[@JustPhil-yw6bt]

So... "market confirmation" means wait til tomorrow's close? Friday close?

[@mattwilmshurst8456]

Weekly closes

[@marc_aussie]

Friday’s close will be interesting after PCE

[@jw8927]

Jason, Saylor is not selling those coins.

[@stephenkutney9626]

With a rate the market should have gone up. It didn't. Jason has been clear on what to do in past comments.

[@stephenkutney9626]

Rate cut

[@changemsia]

Markets are forward looking, all rate cuts so far had already been priced in long ago. They are now pricing in the lower than expected rate cuts for next year

[@chavocanuck]

@@changemsia Exactly! In other words they are responding to/adjusting to the commentary, not the rate announcement.

[@axzipa]

You live out in San Diego?

[@cdubya3]

Algos gone wild. Big rally Friday I suspect after everyone sits on sidelines tomorrow to see what happens

[@danieldykstra4100]

I bought the dip today, and I am selling the bounce when they buy it into Santa.

[@ElementaryWatson-123]

it hit a lot of stops today, everything went on sale, it's overdone there should be a bounce tomorrow

[@loupasternak]

SPY/SPX options incinerated anyone short puts or long calls. just a random example SPY 600 P 9cents at 2pm, $15 at the close . Im sure many sold out for peanuts long long before then

[@App12-qk3xq]

The VIX paid nicely. Might keep paying.

[@meepmeep876]

Inflation expectations (dot plots) from fed board are not as optimistic as they were in the previous reports which is probably the reason for the sell off in bonds.

[@renaissanceman5847]

So now what... 1 day flash crash.. santa rally cancelled? or is the flip happening in Dark Pools ?

[@geoffcohen6062]

given today's flat/decline (no rebound from yesterday) and good news (GDP, employment), would you now say we have a news failure and short the nasdaq?