Master Sports Betting with Monte Carlo Simulations!

Learn Sports Modelling: / excelladz
Download MLS File: / master-sports-107168517
Football Reference: fbref.com/en/

[@excel_ladz]

G'day lads, download the MLS Model in the video here: www.patreon.com/posts/master-sports-107168517 🔥

[@joshhasham6767]

Fire video lad. Thanks for enlightening us with your knowledge 🔥🔥🔥

[@jaydenkouchoo2938]

Great video CHIEF LAD!

[@KirrillyWaring]

Best video yet. Great work, Excel Ladz!

[@robertreed4337]

It's been a while since I last tuned in but I've always enjoyed useing your Poission theory I'm using it in conjuction with a Python model I have build so this is very interesting. Oh I thought you'd be much older, you do look young

[@peterhorvath5372]

Excel LADZ Thank you for showing yourself to the public.👍👍

[@timskitchen9547]

i love the way you make the sports betting with the Monte Carlo simulations

[@excel_ladz]

Thanks for watching lad 😉 🔥

[@bidibidibashman]

Great video and a lot of useful information. As someone who does similar work for my job & thinks Inter Miami have been too short all season across industry, good to see a similar view point. I would have them around 3.5 - 4 but a lot rests on the availability of Messi. He has missed games through injury and is at the Copa America at the moment so it's hard to just use Inter Miami's goal numbers as it's not a true reflection of their potential strength. I find some bookmakers are slow to update team ratings as the season progresses, if they update them at all, so future's are a good area to target.

[@-Tharos-]

You're the GOAT lad! Really liked how you explained everything. Quick question: what is that Sqrt(1.2) factor? I mean, I know it's the 20% home advantage but why the Square Root? Thanks

[@excel_ladz]

Thanks for watching lad 🔥 It's so that the total advantage is applied evenly both ways. Proportionately, the home team's xG increases by the same amount as the away team's xG decreases. In this case, SQRT(1.2) 👍

[@-Tharos-]

@@excel_ladz Thanks for replying lad. Usually I don't apply home advantage in my models because I calculate the home team xG using solely the goals scored at home. Similarly, the away team xG is calculated using the goals scored away. I guess the advantage (or disadvantage) is already reflected in the goal count being used in the xGs calculations. Does it make sense to you?

[@excel_ladz]

@@-Tharos- Absolutely 👍 A separate Average Goals for Home and Away sides removes the need for an overall League Average Goals Figure with a Home Advantage adjustment 🔥

[@samuelwaring1981]

🔥

[@timskitchen9547]

🤩

[@bengarreffa975]

can you please do AFL

[@excel_ladz]

Hi lad, I could do an AFL & NRL video soon 😃 In the meantime, here's a link to a free AFL Disposal Model: www.patreon.com/posts/excel-ladz-may-104566416 Excel LADZ - 2024 AFL Model: www.patreon.com/posts/excel-ladz-afl-99910011

[@jjlawtonproductions9425]

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