Mastering Poker's Ultimate Skill: Knowing When You Have the Best Hand

[@miketidman3398]

We work ALL DAY to get spots like this.

[@1vailchris]

Right??? Maybe it isn't just a snap call, but it can't be a fold.

[@dohpe-]

It's a snap call if you're betting the $850. Otherwise, you check back if you're this scared. No sense in betting here if you even have a fold in your range here with this specific hand. This guy played scared and bet without a plan of action.

[@1vailchris]

@@dohpe- The way this played out, I think I might actually check back on this river, after the check-raise on the flop. With the 9h in hero's hand, I can't give V credit for a flush after he x/r's fop. I don't think he's x/r'ing the flop with a boat (Q9). When the flush comes in, I don't think he'd call a v-bet with KQ or worse trips, and V might even fold a straight. There are just so few hands in V's range that can call the river bet, and K9 as a flop x/r makes some sense.

[@jayl3305]

Yes, but does he call pre flop with k9 off?

[@1vailchris]

@@jayl3305 V could have Kd9d here. Does V limp-flat pre with K9 off, from UTG? He shouldn't be limping UTG that wide, but if the game is soft, he might. When it gets back around to him, he's getting 5-to-1 on a call. He really shouldn't be over-calling there, even with those odds, but if he thinks he can out-play the rest of the field, he might. The challenge I see is that if V has K9o, you'd think he'd bet bigger on turn when the backdoor flush draw appears, especially after check-raising flop, or if not, that he'd over-bet pot from up front when the river completes a straight, a flush, and gives him the third nuts. His range has more straights and random 9x in it than boats, whereas hero's better hands are just QQ and KK, which he partially blocks with K9. Going for a x/r on the river seems like it's lower EV than just betting from up front. Hero might not even raise with QQ, since V could have 99.

[@jamesmcginn6291]

Bart's analysis is so thorough!

[@adamseidel9780]

This is a total snap call. We’ve already gone through all our logic when we bet on the river! Hero isn’t good all the time here, but he usually is. No real reason to shove, snap it off! Villain could maybe have AQo with Ah here sometimes?

[@joshuapatrick682]

So if you’re bet folding the first or second nut flush then you should be checking it?

[@colintimp1372]

The player could have Q9 in theory, but there's no way a player is ever going to check-raise the flop with Q9 here when they've got a better and a caller. Why kill action? If the player has K9, they're never checking the river. Having it go check-check would be a disaster. You're going to have the best hand here 99.9% of the time. The only question is how much can you get your opponent to call with a 9? I think like $900.

[@adamseidel9780]

I’d have gone $1000 on the river, maybe like $950 to make it sound smaller. Greedy 2/3 pot. Don’t think the hands that call at $850 fold at $1000.

[@dan22482]

Raise on the flop with Q9 makes sense, the villain is OOP and doesn’t want the hero’s overpairs to check back turn. That said I don’t think K9 or Q9 ever check river for the same reason.. getting checked back a ton

[@arnoldPLO5]

I love this analysis! Both the caller and Bart are completely on point with their analysis. The caller was right that in theory, he has to fold some of his value bets to a raise - otherwise villain makes money by just never bluffing. But Bart's strong suit is exploitative play (therefore "CrushLivePoker" and not "CrushGTO") and he realized how easy it is for the villain to overbluff in this situation. I also have the same leak as the caller, trying to play unexploitable most of the time. I would also have folded in this situation - but I have to admit that Bart's thought process is more on point here.

[@chevelle1]

Good example of the dangers of relying on GTO and ignoring the importance of exploitative play. Live poker is a social game. The most consistent successful players exploit their opponents and the table. To be sure, in live poker, some GTO principles have value and should be added to a players game. However, I routinely see players ignore the exploitative skill portion of the game, thinking they can ‘out computer’ their opponents, which of course rarely works out.

[@arnoldPLO5]

@@chevelle1 Absolutely! Most players though have the leak that they do not know what GTO does in a lot of situations - which can be exploited by someone who knows it. Therefore I loved this anakysis seeing 2 different thought processes clash.

[@danielmeuler2877]

​@@chevelle1I prefer "they" keep playing that way. It makes poker a little easier.

[@vidteacher]

Props to the caller for sharing this hand while getting bluffed on the end…

[@mightybatillo]

Yesterday I was on a family pot and the flop comes 778, this guy goes all in for like 300bb in a 8bb pot.... He had 78 and was scared that someone with Aces would hit an ace and make a better full house! Same guy told me he loved to play roulette because they pay 1:1 on colors, even when you have a 33% chance to hit... this guy thinks green shares the same odds with red and black. LMAO

[@jack42011]

SNAP CALL!!! OMG how did he miss that? he totally under represented his hand

[@whimsical_ninja]

So he limp-calls KQo from OOP, check-raises vs two opponents and barrels the turn. But... 4:00

[@halodriver1362]

lol. yup. How do I sit at this table?

[@AT-bw4cm]

He's out to lunch.

[@paulpena5040]

@08:17 "I don't know if A 9 here is a winning call". What is he talking about?? Do you REALLY think villain is going to put you on a flush? What hand is going to be this aggressive with a backdoor flush from the get go? He would have to assume you had BOTH a 9 and a backdoor flush draw and that's a pretty rare combo.

[@1vailchris]

A9/J9/T9/98/97 hearts are the only combos I could put in hero's range. Hero could also have JTh for a combo draw. I think if V has A9 here he has to call hero's bet, but I'd rather just bet A9 from up front and fold to a raise.

[@urbrt2653]

can't believe this fold

[@brandonkelly3275]

These are the "hero" calls you must make to win long term low/mid stakes imo. You have to be able to sniff out the difference between river situations where people don't find the bluffs enough and people just step on the gas because that's all they have to win.

[@MaydayAggro]

In my opinion this was probably the best bluff available, given the nut hands. It was ballsy in the respect that most people wouldn't make that play here, but considering this situation will be way underbluffed (imo), it was probably the right exploitative play (again imo), though it can also probably be argued that it may be underfolded....

[@danielhurst8863]

Stopped 15:10. I call, as foes hand seems very bluffy. Flopped was Check Raised, Turn was lead, and the River is checked, then check raised. Do you really think foe is river checking K9 or Q9? That would be unusual, as you could just check behind and a ton of value would be lost. The most likely hand is KQs. Foe has Top pair good kicker. AQ would likely 3bet pre, so lesser chance here. While AhTh could be here, again checking the river after taking the lead would be odd. You are repping a 9 or QQ or KK, but KQ blocks KK and QQ. Leaving you with mostly likely T9 and J9 and maybe 89. While the river improves his hand, when you bet, he knows he is not good and doesn't have showdown value. The only hand you have which has an easier call is exactly your hand Jd9d. You have the second flush, and no foe has no real boat, nor does he have anything near a standard hand that makes the nut flush. I can't have AK, AQ, AJ as those are blocked, even Ah9h is blocked. Unless you know he plays Ah 2-5h this way, you have to call.

[@1vailchris]

I can't even believe an opponent would check-raise flop with Ax hearts, and check-raise river with the nut flush on this paired board when hero so obviously flopped trips or a boat. Hero is blocking so much of V's value range. If V has a bigger flush or a boat here, so be it, he's getting my money, but as played, against an aggro opponent, I think this has to be a call.

[@sirpaddlesworthiii5933]

There's people at my game that show up with a naked Q here that thought they had the best hand, realized they didn't OTR and then just spazzed and went with it.

[@conorm2524]

Paused at 8:30 . Villain could be on K9d, Q9d, ATh, JTd. I'm not counting combos or asking why V would donk bet ATh for example, because I'm bad at poker!

[@Chris-lp2ok]

I was listening to this at the gym and dropped my weights when he folded. This is an auto call.

[@MrHoCkeY16]

I yelled out so loud when he said “I folded” I think I woke my neighbors up!

[@patrickjordan2233]

With the board changing nearly every street (potential nut) and there was no 3bet pre... I'd have to call, because after the rivered flush (second nut flush), if I don't call here, am I only calling with QQ, KK, and 99? Having a nine blocks V quad 99. Yeah, I have to call... Especially given preflop action/lack thereof...

[@1vailchris]

You could also have K9 or Q9 in your own range here, though if V has the 9d, your only combos would be offsuit.

[@vincenzod9431]

I knew he was gonna say he folded. But then as we get deeper into it I was shocked to hear it.

[@thaThRONe]

Awww Harrahs in New Orleans. This is where I first started playing poker so many years ago.

[@timmyp34]

Going there early November, do they have small stakes like below 2-5 and $500 buy in?

[@1vailchris]

Ouch. Don't know how I could fold here to an aggro opponent who limp-flatted pre. Only combo I can give him credit for and that hero loses to is K9 diamonds, but I think an aggro opponent is either raising that from up front or over-betting turn when the flush draw appears. Hero's pre-flop open range has so many more Qx combos than 9x combos, he's got to consider V might do this with KQ or Ah9d.

[@brianfloyd2279]

Is it possible the villain shows up with 33? Maybe he check raised the flop sensing weakness from hero having AK then binks the 3 on the turn? But maybe he wouldn't check raise the river with QQ and KK being in heros range. I put the villain on four hands; Q9, K9, 33, and KQ (because he blocks KK, QQ and AK, and he also prolly thinks he force AA to fold since the straight and flush came in and their is 99 on the board). It's funny 33 vs AK in this situation came to mind because I had a player bet into me three times in one night with 33, with the first two times he mentioned to the player next to him he put me on AK! 😂 I got him the third time he did it, first two I had flopped open ended straight draws that missed and I couldn't beat a bluff, the last time I had jacks on dry board with a queen on the river.

[@1vailchris]

@@brianfloyd2279 It's conceivable that hero might have induced a spaz-raise from 33 by betting as small as he did on the flop, but I can't give V credit for 33 here. He'd have to limp-flat pre, check-raise flop, bet small on turn, then check-raise river? Hero's got all the bigger boats in his range. Bottom boat is just a river bet for value, or a check-call. Hero doesn't really have all that many flushes here when he bet-calls flop. It looks like he flopped trips or even a boat, which would jive with his super-small bet. I can't give hero AK if I'm villain. I'm giving hero a flush with a 9 in it, or a boat, or trips at the very worst, but I think trips is just a check-back here. I can't give villain Q9 as a check-raise when hero can have QQ, KK or K9. I can give villain KQ as a bluff, and maybe Ah9d, some nut flushes (maybe, but rarely), and Kd9d. But as played, if I'm in V's spot, and I hit the K on the river, I'm just going to barrel this river with a small size and hope hero calls with all his worse hands. When V check-raises, he's just representing K9 diamonds and nothing else, and I don't think an aggro opponent is playing K9 this way from UTG.

[@datsumcrzysht]

I would stop to consider the prob. that V would have K9, and likelihood that V would then check OTR hoping for a check raise. But I can't see how, the way it played out, that Hero could ever fold without some super live read.

[@dohpe-]

It's only a fold if you're a nit. This is terribly played.

[@Rocks_a_Rolex]

Pretty loose/bad iso pre...other than that caller played it pretty well. Assuming caller doesn't iso K9s and Q9s, he's (according to him) betting river with flush+ (KdKs,KdKc,KsKc,QdQs,QdQc,QsQc,9d9h,JhTh,Ah9h,Jh9h,Th9h - 11 combos.) Depending on his flop strat, QQ could be discounted as well but it could also get into the 25% cbet range. Another point which I don't recall being mentioned is J9hh is a pure bluffcatcher facing the river 4x c/r. MDF otr is 54%, so caller only has to defend KK;QQ;99 to satisfy MDF. If we remove QQ then there's 8 combos and we have to call ~4.5. Then, the combo to add (to our bet/call range) would be A9hh. To even be discussing MDF, we would need to assume that villain is finding enuf bluffs, which could be a stretch. Just b/c we have nut hands and a tight value range otr doesn't mean we shouldn't have a b/f range, if anything those facts argue in favor of having a b/f range. We would have to be checking back flushes in order to not have a b/c range.

[@lloydchristmas1086]

dont play these stakes if you are going to fold these hands. like rly what are you only playing the nuts?

[@Jealod24]

It seems like many players get scared to go for full value because of an unrealistic fear a check raise/jam is coming… and a lot of the time the raise wouldn’t even be terrible but they’d don’t seem to understand rangecaps, positional caps, etc etc etc

[@srlim]

Disappointing result but great analysis.

[@davidstud3952]

what I don't like about hero calling this one: we are COMPLETELY uncapped

[@jambojack]

Yeah I agree. It's easy to say it's a call when we know villian was bluffing. But even weaker villians look at this river and be scared of QQ and KK, and underbluff. When villian has very few available bluffs, and they will underbluff, and we have stronger hands in our range, I think this fold is OK

[@carloscardona8425]

This guy sounds like the type of guy who would see another man leaving his house giving his wife a hug and a kiss , and then when he opens the door and asks her who that was she will tell him oh that’s my cousin and he will not only believe her but he will instantly forget it ever happened. Great fold buddy!!! GTO all the way!!

[@EternalSoul222]

lmao brutal

[@joshuapatrick682]

Not gonna lie when the villain check raised the river I put him on KQ, maybe that was with the benefit of the prior analysis but i just don’t see him playing Q9 that way and if he has K9 then good hand i guess. Glad to see my read was correct. Thanks for sharing

[@32266ms]

What about 33? The pf play and small bet otf let him get there. I was thinking 33 or KQ ♦️

[@1vailchris]

The more I look at this, the less I can credit V for having any hand that beats hero. K9 should be betting bigger on turn, to get value from AQ, and charge hero for his possible flush draws. V isn't limp-flatting with suited aces, like ATh, then check-raising flop with just backdoor draws and one over. V probably isn't check-raising flop with a Q9 boat, then betting small on the turn, because of all the action-killing cards that can come on the river. QQ and KK aren't limp-flatting pre. KQo and Ah9d are the only hands that make sense here, because they have some showdown value when hero checks back, but V should know they're no good when hero bets. KQ blocks KK/QQ/K9/Q9, and A9 blocks K9/Q9 and the nut flush. V's trying to rep K9d or A9h, but hero has the 9h, and it's hard for V to rep K9d when he takes this line.

[@1vailchris]

@pokerprodigy thanks man. It was hard for me to figure out what to do in hero's spot, because I wouldn't get to the river the way hero did. I'd bet bigger on flop, and not expect to get x/r'd by any hand that beats me. Hero's small flop bet induces V's x/r with a wide range of hands, some we beat and some we don't, and gives up the betting lead when he just calls. I'd expect V to flat call a bigger flop bet with a hand like KQ, and check-call turn, then either check or lead river from up front with block bet sizing. If V suddenly leads out on the river with an over-bet, after flat-calling flop and turn, maybe I can credit him with Q9 or K9, or AX of hearts, and I can find the fold, but even then, hero's hand blocks so much of V's thick value that continues on the flop, it would be super-hard for me to fold here, even playing it that way.

[@arnoldPLO5]

I would not disregard Q9 or K9 here About Q9: it was a small raise on the flop. A lot of Q or JT should still call. Small bet on turn to keep in most of villains hands About K9: Same story, keep in some Q or JT. And not bloating the pot when behind.

[@1vailchris]

@@arnoldPLO5 I'm not disregarding them, I'm discounting them using logic. Caller described V as a competent, aggressive reg. That sort of player shouldn't be limp-flatting from UTG with Q9o or K9o, so there are really only 2 combos of Q9d or K9d available. Even if we give V the offsuit combos, it's just 6 combos of Kx9d and Qx9d. Q9 doesn't want to x/r flop multi-way, into the PFR. That's going to fold out all of hero's bluffs, and a lot of the other opponents' weaker hands. Q9 should want to keep as many players in the pot as possible, and let hero keep the betting lead with all his bluffs and worse value. So I think we can discount Q9 fairly reliably. That leaves K9, which would probably want to x/r flop when hero bets small and BB calls. But K9 will also frequently want to bet bigger on turn when the back-door heart flush appears. With K9, the Kh on the river is V's gin card - it completes all of hero's straight and flush draws, improves V to the 3rd nuts, blocks hero from having KK, and allows V to have two plausible bluffs in his range - KQ and Ah9d. It doesn't make sense for V to be worried he's behind with Q9 or K9 if he's going to x/r on the flop. But if he thinks hero is a nit who only calls the flop x/r with QQ, and he doesn't want to bloat the pot, then he should just check turn. On the other hand, if V wants to keep hero in the pot with worse hands, he should consider the following questions before he bets turn and goes for the x/r on the river. How many combos of Qx, 9Xh and JT can hero have, that are strong enough to raise pre, and are going to continue when V x/r's flop and barrels turn? None of hero's Qx hands have a draw. Only JTh is a combo-draw on the turn. Even if V gives hero every combo of JTs, hero will be folding some of the non-heart combos on the turn sometimes, and checking back on the river sometimes, when the flush draw comes in, because hero's straight loses to V's flushes, and because V could also have a boat. Hero's only got four or five 9Xh combos that might raise pre and continue on the turn - A9/J9/T9/98, and maybe 97. After V x/r'd flop and bet turn with Q9 or K9, why would V think hero is going to bet if V just checks the river? How many hands does hero have on the river that villain can beat, but are strong enough to bet given V's line here, when hero only has four or five flushes, only one of those is the nut flush, and all of them lose to V's boats? If V has K9d, then hero can't even have Q9s in his range, because the only 9 hero can have is the 9h, and the Qh is on board. Hero only has three combos of Q9o, and he shouldn't be raising pre-flop with them from UTG+1. After V's flop x/r, V's range on this run-out is weighted towards: 1. Non-heart straights that don't want to x/r the river because they lose to hero's flushes, boas and quads. 2. Nut flushes that don't want to x/r for the same reasons - if V has the nut flush, hero's range is weighted towards straights that may not bet, weaker flushes that may not bet, and boats/quads that beat V. 3. Boats that really shouldn't go for a x/r, simply because after V x/r'd on the flop, hero doesn't have many hands that are strong enough to bet and that V beats when V takes this line. 4. KQo and Ah9d for bluffs. Meanwhile, if V has K9 or Q9, then hero's range is weighted towards 1P-2P hands that are mostly checking back, straights that are mostly checking back or maybe betting small and folding to the x/r, one nut-flush that might bet and might call a x/r, but might also check-back, and hands V partially blocks, but that he also can't beat (KK/QQ). If V has Q9 or K9, he's at the top of his range, and his hand is super-nutted (he's only losing to QQ or KK, one of which he'd be blocking), so he should just polarize by leading out on the river with a big bet, and put real pressure on hero's entire range, or even just take block-bet sizing and go small. With V having so few bluffs on this run out, I think the solution is for him to just lead out for a small bet and hope hero finds a call with most of his range. Either option makes more sense than going for a x/r, unless V is putting hero on Ah9h, exactly, and V thinks hero will bet if V checks, and V thinks hero's bet will be big, or that if hero bets small he'll call the x/r.

[@arnoldPLO5]

@@1vailchris Thanks for your reply. Where can I send you 100,- for a coaching session? 😅 Only thing I want to add is that everybody thinks differently. You think Qd9d and Kd9d are almost never in villains range, I think especially Kd9d could play that way. My thought process when I am in villains shoes: Preflop: whatever, people like limp calling (I would not do that) Flop: good kicker to my 9x, definitely worth a raise (I like slow playing bad trips and fast playing good trips in general) Turn: do not fold out too much that is not a 9 River: straight got there, flush got there - I probably fold out even some 9x when I bet. But I see villain going for the value bet with A9+ or turn something like a Q into a bluff. Therefore I think checkraising yields more value.

[@arnoldPLO5]

About Q9 does not want to raise: this is certainly true 100BB deep. But 700BB deep I think you want to give villain the chance to hang himself with a 3bet with A9. Very deep, the solver likes to be aggressive with nutty hands and does not slow play that much. 100BB deep, A9 will be the prime 3bet, 500BB deep Q9 is a prime 3bet.

[@Bawookles]

The check raise by villain on the river rather than leading out and the size of the check raise screams "DON'T CALL ME THIS IS A BLUFF AND THE ONLY WAY I CAN WIN THIS HAND."

[@hansari8697]

If the callers description of the player as a younger pro is accurate on the turn I would think I am always good or dead. This is based off his flop raise sizing combined with the turn size. I don't see how we could be dead unless he got cute with 33 and binked the turn. If its a recreational or someone unaware of the price their bet is laying that goes out of the window.

[@ewallt]

Check raising the river is weird there because hero could jam with the nut advantage, and the other fellow would be screwed. I think the big problem here is the amount of money is so large that that’s coming into play, and the young play took advantage of scared money.

[@bryanjohnson8162]

This guy is nuts folding here!!

[@bsheaves]

If he was gonna fold a backdoor flush he should have checked the river lol. Most players don’t fast play flopped boats so villain’s range is more weighted towards a 9 or Qx. His river bet size is bad as well. Size should be significantly more polarized, I’m betting at least pot here. The only hand villain has here that has you beat should really be K9d as played. And if they have that hand they’re gonna get paid

[@GetMeThere1]

I would have been REALLY worried about Q9 or K9, but I either would have called or (perhaps wrongly) just checked for showdown. Honestly, I would have taken every opportunity to NOT get caught in a difficult showdown with $8000 effective stacks -- playing in a 2/5 game -- so there's a good chance I would have checked back. I like to OFTEN bet thin for value on the river, but it doesn't have to be ALWAYS.

[@nuklearwinter2892]

Both of those hands would have just value bet river, not gone for a check raise since hero already called flop and turn it wasn’t like he could expect hero to bet when checking.

[@GetMeThere1]

@@nuklearwinter2892 You're probably right. I would have just been terrified of a check jam, so I would have checked. Looking back, his play was obvious: he had something decent, so he bet, and when he got called every time he had to figure he was beat. Then, because there are so many possibilities -- and he faced a not very large bet -- he gambled on a bluff. Turned out he played it exactly right.

[@adamseidel9780]

If you check the river here because of the stack size you need to find a new game until your bankroll is more comfortable.

[@GetMeThere1]

@@adamseidel9780 I agree 100%. I'm talking about my situation only -- I don't WANT to play in a 2/5 with $8000 stacks (well, except with the "right" people, lol)

[@1vailchris]

Nothing wrong with checking back here as hero if you're putting V on Q9 or K9. The distribution of the suits of the known cards make it hard for V to have many worse hands that can call a value bet. If you can only get called by better, and you're up against an opponent who might decide to get tricky on the river, you don't need to open your stack up by going for thin value with the 6th nuts.

[@lloydchristmas1086]

Hi Bert ❤

[@DavidSmith-lj1yz]

"Oh my God"....classic

[@TheDjcarter1966]

Given the nature of reraising on the river and low bluff frequency...I think I'm actually thinking AhXh...maybe 10h...but in the end this is a call...even if like caller you are scared describe it as a crying call but it is still a call.

[@1vailchris]

AT hearts is the only flush that makes any sense here, but it's just a bet or a check-call on this run-out, after hero calls the V's x/r on the flop. Even then, you'd have to be hyper-aggro to x/r flop with AT hearts. KQ makes so much more sense, the way this was played.

[@stephenwishburne1034]

9:27 If I was hero here, I don’t bet on the River. And I’m typing this before I have heard the result. I just don’t think we are getting called by worse. I don’t think any straight or trips or smaller flushes call. I would check back and be happy to take the pot with my Jack high flush. ***Update*** I don’t know why hero would bet here ever if he’s going to fold to a raise. His opponent made a bad play that only worked bc I don’t think the hero thought about why he was betting and what he would do if he was raised.

[@iammark301]

(adding in comment before the reveal ) if the villain believes the hero is on a nine, then he is very likely bluffing to rep or actually overplaying a small flush

[@jameswigggg]

Villain had a good hand to bluff with. He blocks both KK and QQ for the boats so even though I could never pull this suicidal bluff because hero can still have those hands and q9 and k9 I respect the gamble in this spot. Wonder what happens if hero had either bombed or underbet river because a 2/3 size at their level doesn’t scream nutted but hey I’m just a 1/3 grinder so definitely take my opinion in moderation

[@ticenits1926]

I’m just wondering what does villain think he’s getting hero to fold

[@1vailchris]

I'm also a 1/3 grinder. Hero said V was a young, aggro player. I'd think he's probably studying the game and understands that he has to have some showdown value if he's going to consider an x/r on the river. If I'm hero, I'm going to be more suspicious of that sort of opponent than I would be of some bad rec player. KQ is a good hand to bluff with, yes, but the problem I see is that he check-raised river after limp-flatting pre and check-raising the flop. That line is representing such a narrow value range. V can't have KK or QQ here, but hero can. Even if V is blocking with KQ, hero could still have those hands, as played. It's hard to give V credit for a bigger flush, and the only boat that makes any sense is the one combo of K9d. Hero could also have A9 hearts here, and just not want to fold it. I actually wonder if V knew he was bluffing here, or if he thought hero had AQ or AK.

[@jameswigggg]

@@ticenits1926 all non fullhouse hands I think

[@jameswigggg]

@@1vailchris I think he knew he was because called said villain turned his hand over immediately wanting to show. He knew he was behind and frankly speaking ran into the one hand the hero could fold because he said it himself he was at the bottom of his value range. Classic case of a negative ev play that proved successful. If you get a fold let’s say 1-4 times it’s probably worth it in his eyes to maintain his aggressive image and get paid in future hands. Maybe I need to evaluate my game because as the villain I’m folding or calling since I hold those blockers. But as far as bluff candidates it’s either exactly kq or an ace of hearts hand

[@1vailchris]

@@jameswigggg Just so I'm clear - you're saying V did think he was bluffing? I'm not disagreeing, it's just such a weird hand, and I'm not sure how much future value there is in V showing this particular bluff. It would make more sense if he had A9 off with the A hearts. As played, hero has so few flushes and boats, V might have thought hero had AQ. It's hard for me to figure out what V was thinking, or how I'd play the river in hero's spot, because I don't think I'd get to the river the way hero did, and because I see so much weird shit at 1/3 that I might check-back on the river with hero's hand. If I flopped trips multi-way, I'm betting bigger on the flop, to clean up some equity and get value from all the Qx and A-high hands that just don't believe I have a hand. I'm not expecting to get check-raised by any hand that beats me on the flop. If V calls and everyone else folds, I'm barrelling the turn for another big bet. Taking that line, I expect V to either fold turn or check to me on the river, at which point, I'm betting small if V is just a typical 1/3 fish, and probably folding to a river check-raise, or I'm just checking back against an aggro opponent who's capable of taking this line with Q9 or K9, but probably isn't going to call a value bet with any hands I can beat. If I'm villain, I don't think I'm check-raising the flop with KQ. I might donk-lead turn and block-bet the river, but I'm never going to turn top two into a bluff on this board, when hero can have flushes, boats, and a few straights, and my hand has so much showdown value against hero's AQ's.

[@carsonnennstiel158]

Why is shipping as a bluff not an option?

[@carsonnennstiel158]

If you are a pro in the game playing 8k effective K9 is a simple C/R/F so jamming folds his whole range out

[@1vailchris]

@@carsonnennstiel158 You're check-raise-folding K9 to a jam here? At 2/5? You're putting hero on QQ or KK, and nothing else? After x/r'ing the flop, and catching the miracle K on the river, you're at the absolute top of your range here. If you're going to fold K9 to a jam after you x/r, why not just block bet from up front or check-call?

[@carsonnennstiel158]

@@1vailchris what hands are jamming 3b ripping here? Only QQ and KK imo, and how many ppl are actually shoving 800bb in as a bluff, it’s a very underbluffed spot. I’m not arguing that K9 shouldn’t be a lead, but the guys repping K9 or Q9, and if it was a pro, I’d definitely jam, but against a rec I wouldn’t jam, but definitely against a pro. I’d jam it.

[@1vailchris]

@@carsonnennstiel158 I may have misunderstood your original question, and your follow up comment. Who should be shipping here? Hero, or villain? I took it that you were suggesting hero should jam as a bluff, because V would fold K9. Honestly, that just seems like going too many levels deep. Hero's hand seems too strong to turn into a bluff, and I don't see V folding K9 often enough to make that profitable. K9 blocks hero from having KK, and hero probably would have bet KK bigger on this flop. After hero bets small and V x/r's, hero might have 3-bet KK on flop, or raised turn when the back-door flush draw appears, especially since hero can't have the King of hearts when it appears on the river. Hero has just one combo of KK. K9 also blocks hero from having 99, so a jam from hero is really just repping QQ. But if hero has QQ, V could have 99, so hero could just flat call, not jam. I just don't see a good, thinking V folding K9 here after x/r'ing the river on this runout, when hero has so many worse hands, and V is really just repping one hand for value.

[@adamseidel9780]

A bluff? You think you’re going to get Q9 or K9 to fold out afraid of Kings or Queens?

[@mitchellanderson1242]

I am most scared of Q9 here but I am still not folding this thing.

[@joshjosh1780]

Stopped @ 10:00 mark, I would have checked it back as played if I was the hero, but I've been playing a like a nit in Texas where there's lot donk's, this has been very profitable for me, I'd be so happy to take the $700 on the river if I win and I wouldn't cry if he was yet another limping donk with Q/9 off suite. Another thought I have is the old "if you can stand the raise don't bet" rule, I'd only ever raise with 9's full of Q's minimum here, because I'd expect the re-raise 2/3rd's of the time.

[@Dylan-vm4gl]

To hero’s last point of worse hand he gets here with.. I don’t think MDF is prudent because V gets to the river with just K9 that beats H. I don’t think Q9 raises flop.

[@aloha270999]

If he had a boat why would he check when there's flush on the board risking making nothing if hero checks and if he had nut flush why would he raise, if he has Q9 or K9 good for him so I would always call. If you play J9 and you get there both ways why fold? On the flop is hero willing to go all in I wonder.

[@1vailchris]

100 to 200 BB's deep, I would have been willing to go with my hand if I was hero and got x/r'd on the flop. I'm ahead of all V's Qx combos and almost all his 9x combos. If I'm beat, I'm beat. It's just a cooler. But with stacks this deep, hero could have 3-bet folded the flop here, and not gone broke. He 3B's to $700, V just folds KQ. V is only 4B'ing a QQ that was slow-played pre-flop and Q9. Even if V just calls, the turn is probably going check-check. The river will too sometimes. It's weird that hero wasn't sure if he was good on the flop but he thinks he is on the river.

[@brettcb471]

Sigh call and I expect to get shown K9 diamonds or Q9 diamonds every time 🙃

[@eshootziscrs2868]

Is the villain really bluffing or does he believe he's beating AQ , QJ and AK ?

[@lewisriddle5859]

Was the villain betting for value or a bluff? Most people don't seem to really think that deep.

[@armank9927]

We ❤ Nits

[@iamjermcs]

Jesus Christ. When fake GTO brain goes wrong

[@FkN_Humble]

I'm snapping thaT river raise soooooo quick gimme that pot

[@dohpe-]

Guy is playing a game he isn't rolled for if this is a tough decision.

[@stevenundisclosed6091]

This is simply a snap call on the river.

[@johnc505]

I appreciate how uncomfortable the spot is, but when you think it through it feels like a pure call… you only lose to K9dd. At the end of the day, it feels like a super ambitious bluff that should never happen, so weird for sure, but call and either scoop or add back on.

[@MarkTorres-g2v]

Why is the nut flush not a hand that the villain could have?

[@johnc505]

I think for two reasons; 1) based on the flop action I don’t see how villain check raises Axhh. What combos make sense? 2) on the river action hero is weighted towards tons of 9s and all nut boats, so against a big bet I think the nut flush would be a call not a check raise… also, if I arrived as villain with AXhh some how I think block betting might be more likely… but I’m not looking at a solver. Just my 2 cents.

[@paulpena5040]

I would be really tempted to jam the river since so many lags are going to think you are turning 9s or even weaker into a bluff. If he has a made straight or even K Q, pocket As he could call. But the key takeaway is what hero says at the end "This is the worst hand that I bet for value". Yes, it's the worst hand YOU bet for value.

[@thaThRONe]

Wait he says he doesn't want to get raised with trip J's on this board?

[@thaThRONe]

This fold is crazy. As Bart points out what are you losing to?

[@royalflush8173]

Villain is interpreting your betting patterns as weak jack 9

[@chrisliu9470]

Younger Pro won't limp at UTG😅

[@JMTavares7]

Hero shoulda jammed to fold out K9 ;)

[@justinhart7172]

Caller played the river like he played his flop sizing 🐈

[@joshuapatrick682]

ah yes, the blood in the streets of the 2/5 match the stack in NOLA...many a naive tourist has been gotten by the "ripper"....

[@danielmeuler2877]

Someone should write a Song about the Subject of know if your good or not.

[@timmyp34]

No. And if there is such a song, it should never be played. Especially if the singer sounds like he has a mouth full of gravel.

[@Kong_fool]

If you’re playing 2-5 with decent competence knowledge of the game, and you fold this hand you’re just a totally NIT! Simple as that

[@guillermoalvarez9400]

Maybe the villain in his mind wasn’t bluffing and was just overplaying KQ, thinking he was going for value against AQ. He check raised a small bet so probably thought his hand was good and needed protection. He certainly didn’t think H had a 9 or made a backdoor flush.

[@CashMoneyDG]

Absolutely not lmao. What kind of analysis is this. Please keep studying

[@PrimeMinister1999]

If hero had KQdd he should always 3! Jam river as bluff

[@1vailchris]

3B! jamming over a river x/r here, without a 9 in your hand? Why? Are you putting V on KQ too, and just trying to get him off a chop?

[@dreamsinthewitchhouse]

seems like Hero just really did not think this one through

[@MrHoCkeY16]

Nor did the Villian. He was basically trying to give money away. Raising KQ off to $3500 on the river you’re NEVER getting called by worse. Terrible river raise…..

[@1vailchris]

@@MrHoCkeY16 yet he got a better hand to fold. Not saying I'd make the same play if I were V here. Just saying that V's line has at least at least as many hands that beat hero than it has bluffs in it. His bluffs are basically just KQ and 9dX, plus maybe JT. His value is mostly K9/Q9, plus some weirdly played KK/QQ/33/AXh.

[@KaCee-v6o]

@@MrHoCkeY16it’s called a bluff , r u ok?

[@michaelstephens9852]

No hands that beat him really make sense. Find a call.

[@sog1272]

This is a check back on the end all day. If you raise you have to be committed to calling if Villian re raises.

[@ryandaley3351]

🙄 How can you fold there?

[@tn49]

He could also have TJ. UTG would not put you on flush.

[@datsumcrzysht]

But the hero has the nut advantage with Ks, or Qs so hero doesn't need to have the flush.

[@1vailchris]

@@datsumcrzysht True, and a good opponent would realize that. Still, you see a lot of bad recs doing this sort of shit with straights and worse at low-stakes. I don't think the V in this hand is doing that, but it does happen enough to make this even more of a call. V's repping such a thin value range here, I don't know how we fold.

[@no1ghostrider]

You have so much covered and the way the hand was played, you are only losing to K/9 and Q/9 there is no way he has pocket kings or queens because he didn't 3 bet pre-flop. So the hero said he was a good player, if the villain puts you on a strong hand can he really check the river hoping you bet? You bet that's when he decided to put you in a tough spot by raising.

[@bluedog424]

Even your dog thought you should have called......

[@Jealod24]

Imagine thinking you need to “try to get heads up” with j9s… can someone tell him j9s doesn’t play the same as qq. “Let’s inflate that pot to polarize those ranges… who wants to keep mediocre trash in… I only want calls from premium hands that dominate me”. Wow. Live games must be awesome to play at. More than ever I imagine you would really want to pay attention to bet sizes, limps, and showdowns

[@squallloky]

Last time I folded a spot like this (a lower flush in a spot where there are boats and better flushes and I don't block any) the guy over repped JT and said I got there and showed it, saying good fold, I was like omg ur such a fish

[@GWrench9]

He's the fish but you're the nit.

[@1vailchris]

Fish doing fishy things like that is part of the reason I'd find it hard to fold here. But caller said V was a capable, aggro player. The only hand I can give him credit for that might be played this way is Kd9d, but it's hard for me to credit V with that hand with this line.

[@squallloky]

@@1vailchris tbh, he has the only K9 or Q9 of diamonds of is over repping JT/89/9T if he's limp calling I can see tons of possible worst value, and not folding OP specific hand with such a runnout

[@1vailchris]

@@squallloky I wouldn't have taken the line hero did here, by betting small on this flop with trips, inducing V to x/r with KQ. But as played, I don't think I can ever fold.

[@squallloky]

@@1vailchris I would probably bet bigger on the flop as well, I don't usually use small sizing multiway anyway on a board you won't get folds from many hands

[@AlienationIsReal]

Why can't the villain have q9 or k9??? Years ago bart would tell me hey WE can have a boat here so he can't be bluffing. If we can have boats and he raises he likely has k9 or q9. I never got the logic on how this is a call.

[@rppoker8541]

Wowwwwwww

[@brettmasonmedia]

Another GTO victim

[@evingmadeez5008]

#NeverFold

[@royalflush8173]

He probably wasn't bluffing he probably was so bad that he thought he had the best hand

[@royalflush8173]

I wouldn't fold this Villanova probably has smaller flush

[@qlow5956]

I'm 100% saying out loud, "I think you played this horribly, and you're about to get paid for it," before tossing in the call.

[@1vailchris]

Just curious, what hand are you putting V on when you say that? Q9 or K9? The nut flush? I think I just close my eyes and call, praying V doesn't have a boat. If he does, he actually played it masterfully, since there are so few flushes or worse boats in hero's range.

[@qlow5956]

@1vailchris KK and Ah10h would be horribly played in this setup, yet somehow get there. So those hands are gonna get paid by me, just because those lines don't make sense. "GG. You got crazy lucky on the river after misplaying all previous streets. Take my money." I don't love Q9 or K9 checking river. Too many hands check behind for showdown value after V showed immense strength earlier. Even J10o should check back mostly, as Bart explained. And what is calling a 4x check raise on river? Not much that V beats. So there's not much added value by check raising Q9 or K9.

[@1vailchris]

@@qlow5956 I'm not disagreeing. Was really just curious what hands you're giving V that elicit that comment. I don't think I'd believe it if someone told me about this hand and the story ended with V having KK or QQ. 33 would actually make more sense, albeit not much more. I also don't love V checking river with Q9 or K9 after x/ring the flop and under-betting turn, for the same reasons you noted. Nothing V is repping blocks hero from having a better hand. K9 doesn't block QQ. Q9 doesn't block KK. KK and QQ, as insane as either of those would be, don't block 99. As played, if I'm V with K9, I'm probably just check-calling and praying I didn't run into QQ. The thing about your comment is that you'd be making it while calling a better hand the V played so terribly it ends up looking genius, or a worse hand that the V admirably recognized was right to turn into a bluff, like KQ or Ah9d. Not saying I'd x/r with either of those hands in V's spot, but if I'm hero, and V did x/r with either of those hands, I'd have to give him credit for putting me in a tough spot with Jh9h. If V does have Q9 or K9, as much as I don't like his check on the river, I would have to admit it seems pretty smart if it induces me to value bet with Jh9h, when most V's would just over-bet the river here with that hand.

[@stepbackandthink]

KQ was not a bluff. He was raising for value.

[@KaCee-v6o]

Lmfao troll af

[@themi6sportsnetwork171]

This reminds me of this hand from Molly's game: kzbin.info/www/bejne/pH2UaYKjqMaGh6M.

[@hansari8697]

I'm sorry but I just don't think a "pro" that over limps EP w 89s or whatever weak 9x and calls a raise is the same player profile that will later recognize and pull the trigger on turning trips into a bluff.

[@rudenurse2561]

👽

[@sethshapiro5973]

And once again, Bart is baffled by the reveal because he has no idea that players play badly. It’s why we play the game. Jfc

[@JazzYachtrocker]

Pot control

[@TomRauhe]

If you're afraid of a better hand with flopping trips with a decent kicker, you are playing the wrong stakes, sir. Regarding the fold at the end, you are playing WAY out of your league. You're good 95% of the time here.

[@adamseidel9780]

Agreed 100%

[@arnoldPLO5]

Theoretically, you have to have folds after value betting the river. If you do not have them, villain prints money by never bluff raising the river everytime you have a strong percieved range. The caller knew that in a GTO world, his hand should be probably a fold. But Bart explains why you should overcall here when compared to GTO. It is called "CrushLivePoker" and not "CrushGTO" for a reason.

[@adamseidel9780]

@@arnoldPLO5 I highly highly doubt this is a GTO fold

[@arnoldPLO5]

@@adamseidel9780 As my user name suggests, I am playing way more PLO than Holdem. So I also only have access to PLO solvers. But I can see his hand being a GTO fold. But try putting something similar in a Holdem solver if you have access to one. To avoid having a 5way flop, I suggest a HU situation: CO opens, only BU calls. CO cbets small, BU raises small, CO 3bets small. Turn: CO plays half pot. River: CO checks, BU bets half pot, CO raises. I am really interested in the solver output there.

[@tubedude55]

Great episode, for god sake, put the dog somewhere else

[@jamesjones2675]

I had no idea he was going to say he folded. Wow! Why was he even playing to the river? His hand got astronomically better and he finds the fold. Wrong stakes man. No shame in dropping down.

[@Peter-mp7rg]

I think a lot of people turn these match the stack games into dick-measuring contests with the other regs trying to sit thousands of BB effective with each other. Unless there are some fish that deep, I'm happy with 250bb and will usually cash out if I get to 600bb+ because I know I am uncomfortable playing $10k pots. It just seems like an ego thing that is really common with a lot of regs.

[@josephmooney7196]

Worst fold in poker history’

[@dormie9]

This is such a bad bluff by the villain… repping what? Hero has all of hands. Good news is he will think he’s great and will continue to find bad spots to bluff

[@SpaceJawn]

This guy has to be fired from playing poker.

[@krisrob648]

This exact scenario with so few hands capable of beating you. You should not be betting if you have any Folds to a check raise.

[@arnoldPLO5]

Theoretically, you should have bet/folds to value - always. The reason this hand should not be folded is because villain is likely overbluffing (therefore: do not fold value at all), and that he is not at the bottom of his value range (A9 or JT are worse).

[@molonlabe8792]

If I encounter sticky situations like this, I can always pull out Bayes Theorem as a last resort.