Mastering the Crawl Walk Run Fly Model of AI Transformation

[@DaveShap]

Medium article companion: medium.com/p/7d883b03ff6e

[@ramazan_polat]

You not only brilliantly categorized everything in my mind but also added invaluable insights. Spectacular work! Well done and kudos!

[@marrty777]

Great breakdown. What I am running into is all these teams and vendors that are trying to sell me Fly today for a highly complex use case and they don't understand why it won't work. Part of the benefit of Crawl through Run is working out the details of the use case organically.

[@DaveShap]

Yes, exactly. It would be like people trying to sell you an iPhone at the beginning of the Dot Com revolution. Tech wasn't mature enough yet.

[@AnaLissansky]

Shared this with all my external and internal networks, thanks for making this, David. The surfing the wave is an excellent analogy.

[@RealShinpin]

It needs to happen faster.

[@godlyvex5543]

ehhhh... there are good things about that and bad things

[@RealShinpin]

@@godlyvex5543 I know. I'm just tired of waiting

[@BloodRaven744]

@@RealShinpin same. I’ve been hearing about it for years, and I’m only going to get excited when it happens

[@ОлегБочаров-щ8к]

I get being excited and anxious to get in theoretical bright future, but think about how much is on the line. We still haven't sold huge problems with AI and it will blow up in our faces if we are not extremely carefull

[@goodtothinkwith]

Most important word in the video: unstoppable. Great job David. The business focus here is good because it forces us to be practical about what’s going to happen, which is useful for those of us who aren’t on a board of directors 😊

[@dianedean4170]

Brilliant observations and insightful comments 🎉😊❤ Thank you so much, David, for your thoughtful outlines of describing what we need to consider when adopting these exciting and, hopefully, very beneficial technology tools to everyone's well-being. I think some of these podcasts posted by yourself and some other podcasters that are researched need to reach the executive level staff.🎉❤😊

[@christopherd.winnan8701]

Great to see you back. These talks for CEOs and entrepreneurs are cool, but when are you going to put together a video on the AI tools that you use as an author? I would suggest that you might have more fellow authors as viewers than CEOs....

[@MikeHowles]

That surfing analogy is great, and exactly my same sentiments!

[@laptopuser5198]

Great perspective, thanks for posting this video.

[@crazyeightsable]

I am here just out of curiosity.very interesting.

[@RedaLAHMER-e8i]

I wish you addressed the renegotiation of the social contract in the same video because the result is relevant to an important issue for the surviving enterprise once it reaches the fly stage: will I still have customers by then? The answer depends on the redistribution model adopted.

[@theatheistpaladin]

Some people try to fly before they can even crawl. All they really done is jump off a cliff.

[@DefenderX]

Thanks for a really good video. The CEO of the global company that I work in (Fresenius Kabi) posted about AI and ChatGPT after it really hit the news a while back, where they basically just generated a post with AI (to seem scary) and said that we cannot trust an AI with the sensitive GMP data because we don't know where it's stored. Meanwhile their Vision 2026 has seen several sites closed to decrease cost and increase efficiency... I believe we can achieve increased efficiency and reduced costs by being preemptive by setting up AI tools as you suggest. But I also don't want to be reprimanded by the company for using AI tools. I think it's perfectly possible to have AI tools in a closed of environment and trained on the specific information that we use in certain things (i.e. ANI). So hoping our IT department and policy will find a work around.

[@shodowhawk]

I'm running into a lot of pushback from higher ups just trying to implement basic automation into my workflow let alone AI. A big bottle neck people arent seeing is boomer management that crushes any innovation they cant take credit for or understand, too focused on hitting those useless corporate metrics.

[@shodowhawk]

@@AI_effect exactly, I tried to do that at first, but they track every little thing.

[@christopherluikart9656]

I’m uncertain David that Ai along with other innovations coming online fit within the framework of industrial revolutions. I think it may constitute something new and more significant, and likely beyond our current economic models.

[@DaveShap]

Compare life today to 200 years ago

[@AnthonyOgbonnaN]

What if long before you get to the Run and Fly stage you discover that your organization or industry is no longer relevant due to the same AI force you are leveraging? Shouldn't this be one of the issue to take into consideration at every stage? We may just be assuming that the value of our organization or industry would always remain relevant here. Just a thought. Great insights though! Very eye opening and thought provoking.

[@fill-osophyfriday5919]

Whilst I do think AI will go down this path, I do struggle with the logistics of people losing their jobs and having the money to spend on these companies. Like if Coca Cola fire a load of people and Apple fire a load of people then the Coca Cola employees won’t be able to buy an iPhone and the Apple employees won’t be able to afford Coca Cola? I’m onboard with UBI if we get there but It’s this middle point I don’t get how it could possibly happen without the companies going bankrupt due to no one having money in the interim

[@DaveShap]

I suspect the gov't is taking a "wait and see" approach. But yeah, if everyone loses their jobs that's a huge deflationary pressure. That's why we'll need a new social contract. Working on that video soon.

[@bigbadallybaby]

Feels like the governments would need to act so swiftly and decisively with solutions- taxes, UBI, workers protection?? Else as you described there is no jobs for people to earn money to buy things and the whole economic system stops. What can individuals do ?

[@andreialcaza]

cool

[@travelwithcamera]

I'm not a board member or any of the things you mentioned. I'm just a dude with varied interests who watches a lot of KZbin.

[@PetArt_AI]

Ive been making Cats surf im ahead of the game !

[@4-eyesfxpeers168]

Less risk, more agile and easier

[@phen-themoogle7651]

Nice video! The question I have is how long will it take before this all happens (if it does happen)? And then if humans aren't working anymore will UBI be implemented immediately? What are your predicted timelines for these things. As soon as 2025?2030?2035?2050?

[@DaveShap]

Well it won't happen all at once

[@bigbadallybaby]

You would think as soon as unemployment rises above 10% and all the forecasts show that it would contribute climb, the government would take actions to combat this - UBI being one I just hope that AI is smart enough and people listen to it as to how to transition without major turmoil or wars.

[@Wanderer2035]

Well the Great Depression in the US was when unemployment was 25%. And I read somewhere that if unemployment gets to be as high as 30%, the US economic system would actually start to fall apart. So i’m thinking when unemployment is at about 25% - 32% due to AI automating jobs, the government will have to usher in a UBI, otherwise we’re looking at North Korea level starving or a mass revolt. The first big sign was the writers strike, believe me it’s gonna get way worse than that. We’re in recession right now, that’s not going away, it’ll get worse as AI gets smarter and they bring in humanoid robots, then it’ll turn into a depression as it kills off more jobs, then a UBI. I’m thinking sometime from 2032 to 2035 is when they’ll bring in a UBI.

[@socialenigma4476]

It's all contingent on how fast we develop AGI. Once we have a fully autonomous AGI things will start moving very quickly. My prediction is we have AGI by 2026, so no later than 2028 we'll likely have UBI.

[@SergioBallestrero]

There's lots of menial office work that can be replaced already without waiting for a full AGI. Think of all the things that could already be automated but there's nobody available to code it; by lowering the barrier of entry to write code, current AI will have an impact there. And that can already reduce how many people are needed for those jobs.