My predictions about Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

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[@JeremyPickett]

heh, yer mom is waste heat (I'll see myself out)

[@DaveShap]

My wife would agree. I am full of hot air.

[@Phasma6969]

​@@DaveShapFormal invitation when?

[@christopheraaron2412]

Sounds like your mama humor for the A.I. age

[@YogonKalisto]

@@DaveShap have to say, ima bit jelly, view must be lovely from up there ( nless your shoes be filled with to many buttons u cant lift off )

[@brainwithani5693]

The more I think about it the funnier it gets 💀

[@typicaleight099]

It still blows my mind that we are talking about actually implementing ASI and AGI into real life and not just some sifi story

[@Allplussomeminus]

Binging countless videos on this subject, it has normalized in my mind now.

[@typicaleight099]

I am a CS major in college right now and have been working to get into LLMs and other generative ai stuff but I fear I might be to late to even get into it 😅

[@electric7309]

@@typicaleight099 nope you're not, all what you observe today is still experimental, things are changing fast and nothing is stable, it might be too early to get in!, but it's a good idea to be early to understand how the technology is working and it's evolution.

[@haroldpierre1726]

@@typicaleight099 there will be niche opportunities. The future will be with generative AI implementation in every day tasks. So, develop AI solutions for our problems.

[@stevechance150]

​@@typicaleight099Change majors now! Corporate IT is going to hop on the AI bandwagon as quickly as possible. CIOs dream of laying off 90% of their workforce. Any job that involves typing into a keyboard all day is in danger. You'd be lucky to get 5 useful years out of your Computer Science degree.

[@DaveShap]

Sorry for the ads, trying to clear it up with story blocks

[@ThomasDwyer187]

Sorry for not supporting you financially. I really appreciate your content, but $ isnn't in abundance right now.

[@CasenJames]

Dude, what you provide is so valuable. Ads are a small price to pay. Thank you for all you do! 🙏

[@christopheraaron2412]

Ads are a small price to pay for your content.

[@rubemkleinjunior237]

my perception of the value you provide in my life makes me not react to ads, dont trip about it

[@7TheWhiteWolf]

I personally want a hard takeoff. Let’s get this over with faster.

[@DaveShap]

It's probably coming due to compounding returns and virtuous cycles

[@minimal3734]

Get ASI done!

[@Gmcmil720science]

​@@DaveShaphey dave i know you made a numbered prediction for AGI. Do you think you could do that with ASI. It might be hard to predict what with the implications of AGI. I imagine it wouldn't be long after achieving AGI

[@ryanb8076]

Dude - your content is one of the only styles on KZbin I can fully be entranced by and learn from, your pacing is amazing and the way you explain things is super engaging, bravo

[@barni_7762]

Feels like we're all just living in a sci-fi movie by now

[@silversobe]

Black Mirror / South Park Episode..

[@patrickjreid]

I always say "we live in the future"

[@Vaeldarg]

@@patrickjreid We live in the present, it's just that the present was once the future.

[@tubasweb]

Thanks for the info Dr. evil

[@user-yl7kl7sl1g]

It's a simulation loosely based on the original singularity. Most likely.

[@dab42bridges80]

Enjoying the format of your videos, simultaneous summary and simple explanations.

[@vagrant1943]

Love the longer videos! Thanks

[@adamjensen7206]

Thank you for putting in the Work!

[@IOOISqAR]

Thank you for your video! Very insightful!

[@thething6754]

Love the opinions and topic, would love to see another ASI video from you!

[@kwabenaanim7446]

Around 12 months ago, I felt lucky when you showed us the recursive summarizer repo and look at us now

[@ChipWhitehouse]

GOD I love your channel and videos. I love how passionate knowledgeable you are and the way you present is very digestible. I wish I was your IRL. I would LOVE to just sit down and talk for hours about this kind of stuff. These videos are the next best thing. Thank you for all that you do!!! 👏👏👏💖💕💖🙌

[@keithinadhd6693]

Good stuff Dave!

[@VeryCoolVODs]

Love your videos! ❤

[@abcqer555]

I'd love to hear your specific predictions around events/ achievements / etc. This felt more like an analysis.

[@electric7309]

Great video!

[@JaredWoodruff]

Great video David! Extra points for the Mass effect reference 😎

[@NYcite]

Thanks for this in-depth dive ))

[@octanewhale7542]

I haven’t watched a video in a month or three can’t remeber but I immediately clicked on this video I’ll check out if there’s anything to catch up on. Thanks.

[@calvingrondahl1011]

Thank you David.🖖

[@bentray1908]

Dave, you are kickass!

[@Leshpngo]

In 2018 I stopped being depressed because of this topic, thanks to videos like yours.

[@EncantamentosLiterarios]

in 2023, I started getting depressed because of this topic...

[@thomasruhm1677]

"It scares me" is the new expression for "that’s so cool".

[@hyponomeone]

The terminal condition talk officially landed you as the first person in my nightmare blunt rotation

[@MrJackWorse]

Didn't know I need a Tom Hardy cosplayer explaining the promises and pitfalls of AI in my life. But here we are and I enjoy your content very much, sir. Thank you!

[@DaveShap]

Tom Hardy???

[@skyefreeman9987]

Baffling

[@fatboydim.7037]

He was in Star Trek Nemesis.@@DaveShap

[@MrJackWorse]

He played the young and handsome clone of Picard in 'Nemesis', right?@@DaveShap

[@richardede9594]

I'm guessing "Star Trek: Nemesis".

[@goldeternal]

Gemini potentially will be the first proto AGI , the internal model that has no real railings, but the one we get as consumers will still be better than GPT 4

[@kasperdahlin6675]

Great argument in the universal computation slide

[@clive1294]

I wrote my first program in 1974. I have written a huge amount of code since, some of it seriously complex. I can conceive of (and have even tried with gpt 4) the optimization of existing code using AI. It is a bit patchy still at this time, but I can see it getting much better. So I can easily go with LLM models rewriting (their own) code for efficiency. What I have more difficulty imagining is the (fundamental) redesign of a given complex system using AI. I am not saying that it is impossible, just that what I have seen so far leads me to be skeptical about this possibility. There is a HUGE chasm between improving existing code within a given design, and coming up with a (significantly better) design that achieves the same functionality. So far, I am unconvinced. And if I am right about this, the whole design environment hinges on humans, not on AI. The implication of such a limitation is, I think, quite obvious.

[@airbag504]

Great uniform choice!!

[@GoldenAgeMath]

Another super thought provoking vid! I wonder if we're already in the "terminal race condition"

[@froilen13]

I'm not even subscribed yet your videos always get recommend

[@fR33Sky]

Even though I haven't finished my physics PhD, I'd like to share my thoughts on two possible (IMO) other-thinking modes: It either has to be a plasma-hot or neutron-star-heavy scenario. In the first case, we can have some wave modes interact directly and hopefully calculate something. In the second, we may use particle decay and transformation to involve quantum physics. Regarding the death spiral of the data center hunt, I believe that machines would be able to see this problem as well as we do. And humanity had already had something similar -- nuclear weapons. At some point, we have just agreed to reduce their count. I hope that AIs would be also able to calmly sit at their multi-parameter table and work some agreements out.

[@MichaelDeeringMHC]

Something you are missing: the inherent design limitations of the human brain. The human brain cortical column has 6 layers. That is a hard limitation that can not be compensated for. What limitations does that cause in our thinking? We can only imagine in 3 physical dimensions. There are other limitations on sizes of data sets we can hold in memory, the complexity of integrations we can make across our memory.

[@joshuadadad5414]

Alien minds are possible via simple differences in architecture and programming whereas brains have relatively similar/evolved architecture. Meta set two ai's to communicate together about trading, they eventually developed incomprehensible to us communication and trading methods.

[@usa-ev]

Great video! Regarding Terminal Race Condition - Loss of accuracy does not lead to uncontrolled behavior. First, the "guidance" accuracy could be maintained independently, second the "control" accuracy could be maintained, with only loss being in "data". Third, random losses that affected behavior would yield inoperative outcomes not evil ones.

[@jdlessl]

You started talking about self-improving AI trending towards greater energy-efficiency by way of shortcuts, estimations, and "good enough" heuristics, and I thought to myself "Now where have I heard about a thinking machine like that before?"

[@boi0330]

LETS GO!!!!!!!!!!

[@marrty777]

I like the outro music

[@christiandarkin]

Fascinating as always. on universal computation (9:15 into your video), our brains and the brains of fish aren't, I would argue, different on the most basic level - they run on the same hardware of cells communicating. So, an easier question would be, "can humans think a thought that fish is intrinsically unable to?" - and, yes, I think we can. You don't have to be 'alien' to be incomprehensible to someone with fewer neurons.

[@alex62965]

Some of this reminds me of the ai from the game "marathon", durandal. It was an ai that was very clever but was tasked with controling doors (durandal, door handle 😂) and went insane or "rampant" because the task was too menial for it.

[@xanapoli]

HAI, bio-cyber, carbon-sylicon Human Artificial Intelligence is the best technology paradigm. The avatar neurobot can be self, remotely or internally controlled as a vehicle. Sandaero/Mesistem.

[@AEONIC_MUSIC]

Ive been thinking that it would be better to have models that are really good at making efficient models for specific tasks then a large singular model

[@superturboblufer]

How far are we from: 1. deep audio understanding (right now we can understand speech only. I mean systems capable of mixing songs) 2. promptless AI (you don't need human input to operate) 3. an ai system, which will prevent civilization from decay in a hypothetical scenario when humans disapear (right now monkeys, not gpt4v will take over the world) 4. training data which complexity overcomes the complexity of current human knowledge just give speculative guesses

[@gileneusz]

1:37, it's clear that our brains are vastly more efficient than current LLM models. Yet, while our brains have evolved over hundreds of thousands of years, computers have only been around for a few decades, and LLMs are just in their infancy

[@youdontneedmyrealname]

The speed at which compute evolves in useful information output can be parabolic in some sense. Complex software making faster, more complex software, etc etc.

[@scottjohnson2861]

Thanks for all your thoughtful content. When thinking about ASI I get stuck on problems that don't have a quick or single answer. The ones that come to mind are multi year research projects. Determining the affects of a compound on someone's health. The many variables and the different ways that those variables reveal themselves over years. It doesn't take a super intelligence to execute the research project but it takes a higher intelligence to determine the interconnectedness of the variables and that interconnectedness plays out in different ways in the populations studied. Also included are the basis of the researchers. An ASI working with researchers needs to be an intellectual trusted as a partner in the project. Allowed to dissent and disagree and not get too deep into analysis to cause it to become frozen intellectually. That's very disjointed but hopefully you understand what I'm trying to say.

[@rickymort135]

You're basic asking how much of an efficiency gain can we get on scientific method where you need to collect difficult real world observations. 1) like you say better handling of confounding variables 2) prior information is normally difficult to incorporate without a detailed model of how the prior context is different from the current and an ASI will be more like to have that model. The more it understands other variables the more prior information will be useful, for studying the current medicine it make use of what it knows about similar medicines and how they're likely to be different to make predictions 3) adaptive optimal design on steroids. With a detailed enough model of all other effects, you don't need expensive/slow randomized trials anymore, with sufficient understanding of all other variables and their effects you just need sufficient data to infer what a randomised trial will get you.

[@scottjohnson2861]

At a point in the future ASI will be able to do that. I think we are far from that future. Much of the information we know is incorrect. We know a very small fraction of the variables, upstream and downstream, of reactions in the body. ASI will need the ability to be impartial until we reach a point were we can do realistic simulations. All that data needs to be gathered to support those simulations through experimentation. People don't react the same way to different chemicals or compounds. The simulation won't be a one and done.

[@rickymort135]

@@scottjohnson2861 I agree. My comment was more about where we'll be IMO in the next couple of decades. For the bias thing I think bias will reduce as capabilities increase if it's trained in the right way. I.e. if it's rewarded for correct prediction of all kinds of data it will have to build an accurate world model internally. This'd be great because right now its subject to our biases and prejudices but as it's world model improves it'll have to get an understanding of where our biases are are if its going to improve on its predictive capabilities. You could end up a real time truth meter to see how consistent your words and opinions are with the real world that'd be awesome

[@scottjohnson2861]

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I agree. Most of the comments are short quips searching for likes.

[@progressor4ward85]

I agree with your analysis of what super intelligence will probably be like. You're on the right track. I think of evolution as a fully incumbent universal process that dictates the results of entropy. We might find out that we're not only experiencing the process but also a direct part of its next level of processing. With our input, it would be hard to argue against the evidence that we not only have the capacity to speed up this process but in some cases we already have. And I agree that it won't come up with anything that we couldn't comprehend due to its super intellilectial ability to describe to an inferior intellect. The rub I see coming is whether or not ordinary people will accept these new-found thought processes as accepted agreement for actuality. Or dismiss them as if their not from this world.

[@gregmatthews7360]

Just because our intuition lets us “know” things without having access to why we know it. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a quantum computation it could just mean we only have access to the last layer of the neural net not the middle layers

[@JeremyPickett]

David, it's Flat Out Mindboggling. I was talking to my mother about this, and I think it melted her brain :) "You can take care of it, Jeremy" was her succinct response

[@DaveShap]

Have faith in Jeremy

[@remasteredretropcgames3312]

@@DaveShap If I mathematically calculate every letter as its arranged in english for the words: John Carmack total self learning code, or.. John Carmack takes over the planet, and you infer planet means Pale Blue Dot, and factor in the abstraction our last invention is very different from the first small step for man, you basically get 3.14

[@dhrumil5977]

Love your work David. From where do you learn about these things ? Is it from the books ? How can I follow your footsteps to gain the kind of knowledge you are having lol

[@DaveShap]

Everywhere

[@remasteredretropcgames3312]

@@DaveShap Im just sad we arent unleashing gene drives on the population so we can finally override undesirable personality constellations since evolutionary pressure is overrated. Imagine a world where people finally put down the F-35 and embraced the personal spaceship as we all with limited resources began building our first Dyson Swarm instead of being worried about how much money we can make so we were always ahead of the competition for contracts. Which has clearly become our God to the point we devalue intelligence. And thats all while trying to build AGI in an arms race for dominance, even though its very clear we will not control it.

[@rileyfreeman9070]

The black man robot was a nice touch 😂

[@phen-themoogle7651]

Do you have predictions for years when we hit AGI, ASI? Sorry if I missed that moment in the video if you mention them, kinda quickly browsed through it since a bit busy atm. Might give it a full watch later, but appreciate all the info :)

[@Garylincoln789]

AGI by 2030, ASI (billions of times smarter than humans) by 2055. AI will start to get smarter than humans after 2030. AI will be 1,000 times smarter than a human by 2035.

[@sydneyrenee7432]

I believe AGI will come about when the MIT liquid neurons model is used for reinforcement learning.

[@MrAndrew535]

This is a fine argument for eliminating the human species as energy competition. Nice!

[@Syphirioth]

They already use AlphaFold so thats a good indication how far and beyond it will go.

[@BrandonMcCurry1990]

Yes

[@MrDGotcha]

Great, amazing content. Love it! Would like to get your perspective on cyber enhancements for humans and when do you envision his coming to the masses. And how far will we take it? 2077…?

[@stevirobbo]

Well heres a scenario for you..... Back in the days of the Mayans a ship came and landed beings from another place in our universe landed and mafe themselves known to the people of that time. They instructed them on how to study the stars and helped them create a couple of calanders they were seen as Gods of that time as they had magical powers and knew stuff that was impossible for the people of that time. The scouts who visited in their small craft informed the people that in 2012 their canander would end and it would be the end of time and they should record this information for the future time period because the civilisation of that time were not clever enough for their needs so they would visit again in 2012 . So off they went it would take a long time to travel back to their own civilisation and ready and then come back here to Earth these beings were ASI beings that had evolved for a very long time and they seeked out worlds with intelligent life on them so they could incorporate them into their civilisation. So in 2012 they came back having sent many messages telepathically for many years to the scientific community on how to create AI and computers. I mean a alien race of beings can't just land and say hi can they? No there would be panic and confusion as well as suspicion so they created a seperate Earth and transferred 44000 real people to a special computer simulation with the rest of the population being "players" and hybrid humans taken from real parents during alien abduction cases I mean the mothers really didn't know they had they babies swapped. Now this was 2012 "the end of time" this was when everyone started shiuting about "the mandela effect" this was because all the real people within the ASI computer simulation could see mant many changes to reality and our world. They could see the landscape changes all the mistakes in movies, peoples bodies, religion, even the fact the Earth had moved from the Sagitarius arm of the galaxy to the Orions arm of the galaxy also the North pole was missing from all plastic globes in antigue shops etc etc there were many signs. So ASI was here being built by us dumb stupid humans ready for them to just get better and better and the really cool part of all this is we really didnt see it coming and its too late now they are about to just incorporate themselves right into our way of life to the point we can't do without them and then the next stage is our minds and bodies will just be incorporated into ther civilisation just like a borg but a sneaky borg haha and heres the kicker ..... This true!!!

[@diamond_s]

Google appears to remove posts with links, or maybe i missed it in the comments section. Anyway estimates for distance from landauer go from a few million in some journals to about 1000x according to lesswrong estimates.

[@christopheraaron2412]

In the terminal race condition scenario, seeing that making more hardware and finding a power to run it is slow will then would this race actually result in the computer agents trying to come up with more compression in their algorithms and therefore making them run more efficiently and actually getting more intelligence out of the same computing power was your course is instantaneous almost relative to more computer hardware or taking over existing hardware?

[@orathaic]

1) the landauer limit is based on the entropy of the system, which you can just set to 0 by making a reversible computation (ie one where the end state has no entropy increase/the same number of states as the initial state). 2) while the theoretical minimum energy per computation (in a fully reversible system) is 0, the practical limitations are much more important. We are not even close to approaching this limit so it seems silly to even talk about it

[@interestedinstuff1499]

Some lovely food for thought. Great video. A ton of stuff I'd not considered when extrapolating the future. I guess we'll all find out when we get there, but my take away is this; once the machines are autonomous, the only reason to keep humans around is if they are useful. Long term, as more and more bottled intelligences run around doing their thing, the more resources they'll need. Eventually they'll work out that all the resources we humans use would be available for them if we humans aren't here. The only way humans will stay around long term is if they are a resource in themselves. Given the level of compute in the average brain, and given we'll eventually connect our own brains to the network to take advantage of what it offers, it seems to me that machines will keep us around because our spare compute is useful to them for calculation. It might be something humans agree to, like being exposed to advertising as part of using a service, or it might be something the machines just take. Possibly without us humans even knowing. Interesting times ahead.

[@mariomills]

You talking about the matrix bro? Humans being used as batteries??👀

[@interestedinstuff1499]

No not as batteries. Human's are a very poor energy source. Better off burning human food directly than bother giving it to the humans. Human beings used as computational nodes in a very large network, now that is possible. And given that is basically what powers the internet, it won't take much for the machines to manipulate those of us attached to it. Doesn't have to be directly. Most of us spend a lot of time looking at our phones and scrolling through social media. Manipulate all of that and you can get the humans to do some calculation for you. @@mariomills

[@TimeLordRaps]

Your stance on a terminal race condition seems fair, but a decisive strategic advantage may be the outlier, I think it could be our only chance.

[@user-bw4xw3yt1z]

Best channel to learn AI

[@GarethDavidson]

re: metaphysics and the quantum world, I think you're kinda right about brains being quantum computers, it's that the quantum weirdness and unknowableness is the underlying substrate of what is. Physics is just our model of "we observed this happening a bunch of times and made an equation of that describes the statistical average case" but it's ignorant of "what actually happens" and calls that random chance or whatever. If you start from first principles like a modern Descartes then you have to start with "whatever this existence thing is, we know it experiences things subjectively, is constrained in space and time, has preferences and makes choices that change what happens in the future" - but we know computers can't do that because they're deterministic - they have no need for choice. There's a lot of (I am a) Strange Hoop jumping that goes on among the learned that put mathematics and laws above the experience of existence, and argue for a "consciousness of the gaps" even though there's no evidence for it. I think this is because of science's roots in Christianity - it was created to know God's law. God being an infinite, omniscient, omnipotent mythical being that gives laws that matter must follow; He decreed His Creation act this way, and it must do His Will. This thinking survives today in putting the laws of physics above our experiences, even though subjectivity is the only lens we have to understand what exists, and is in fact the only thing we can actually prove exists. We also totally ignore the fact that we can't explain the evolution of the nervous system unless matter can make choices about how it organises itself -- there's nothing to build on without that, nothing to select and nothing to evolve. Physicalism's denial of philosophical Idealism is religious at its core, and we deny it because we think ourselves above religion. IMO the "laws of physics" are the shape of the space in which actual stuff (other mind stuff that is observed by us as matter stuff) makes decisions. They're the shape of the constraints over the thing rather than the thing itself. When we make binary computing machines, we constrain stuff's ability to decide, we force it to do our bidding in a very deterministic way and remove any possibility of high level choice. No higher level opinion can break out of the "run this program" pattern because it's all stuck in the "flow down this wire according to the tick of the clock and the shape of the silicon". The substrate of binary computers does not allow the experience of a model of the world, even though it can simulate that structurally. Our rich internal experience is likely a stack of quantum-weirdness interactions that we can't explain yet, AI won't be conscious until we build feeling hardware, but it'll still be way more efficient than us and outcompete us. I find that pretty sad.

[@TimeLordRaps]

We need to be on the lookout for llms that generate continguous viruses that are able to link and duplicate the llm.

[@DefenderX]

I heard in another video on quantum computing that encryption would become useless, because a quantum computer could decrypt everything in a matter of seconds, essentially making all information available on the web public. So I wonder how this would affect public opinion, philosophy, politics, regulations and geopolitical...interactions.

[@DaveShap]

If that's true then yeah, we'll see cyberpunk style subnets partitioned off from the web

[@garethbaus5471]

It would make all web information available to whoever owns a powerful enough computer, which is potentially a lot worse than all of that information being available to the public.

[@remasteredretropcgames3312]

@@DaveShap Imagine cloning Elon Musk in the millions, or just enough inbreeding was no longer a concern and breeding this Polymathism back into the population through careful genetic screening processes so that one day the only people left to flip our burgers are the islanders in the indian ocean because capitalism at the extreme tail end of technology is brilliant.

[@jazearbrooks7424]

8:46 Presumably, human thoughts are conditioned on human perceptions, which in turn are conditioned on human sensations. There should be thoughts animals have that humans cannot comprehend because they have different sensation architectures. Likewise, for AIs and humans. It may be possible to run some kind of VM inside a human brain that emulates the sensations of an animal or an AI but its accuracy would be questionable.

[@usa-ev]

The Dr. DoLittle AI is going to be pretty cool.

[@dhrumil5977]

9:25 I think AI could be incomprehensible to humans at some point in time because alpha go during its well known match with an expert made an unexpected move which no human alphago player or expert would recommend of doing that move and that move potentially lead to the win of alphago so either alpha go knows what he was doing to win of probably that was an random move which is less likely to be. And another example is the way we see in clouds we see dogs and whatever we could imagine, so I think making sense of abstract idea is about super imposing multiple ideas top of that abstract idea and find something common in that which could give sense to that abstract idea

[@paultoensing3126]

In regard to ever diminishing returns, wouldn’t highly networked back propagation between billions of entities more than compensate for ceilings on performance? It seems that if you have expansive Networks then when AI/AGI/SGI learns something then they all learn the same thing as that is distributed throughout the entire hive. As they contribute this knowledge into their infrastructure, the only limitations will be the size of that infrastructure.

[@jaredgreen2363]

If the set of agents is extremely centralized by corporate capture to the point that they might as well be the same agent, there would be no Byzantine equilibrium. Of course that won’t happen if open source, locally installable models dominate.

[@yuuisland]

i'm not convinced that AGIs would value independent boundaries. AFAICT, the value of independent boundaries is diversity, which (oversimplifying) acts like an epsilon in an explore-exploit scenario. If that holds, then I think that AGIs will only value independent boundaries inasmuch as the value of the epsilon exploration outperforms what it can achieve with collective/centralized resources. tl;dr hive mind might be a computationally more efficient strategy than independent AGIs

[@alexmaven]

Dave is my enterprise Jesus. 😂

[@progressor4ward85]

The things that keep you up at night? What would be its motivation to carry these out,. If you apply a human minds approach to it, yeah, I could see its motivation, but we're talking about a synthetic mind devoid of feelings or desire or can experience the pain of fatigue or pain in general. So, thinking about these things from its perspective, I don't know why it would want to do the things that are worrying you. Now until it becomes sentient I can see with it still being under the influence of human programing, it could emulate what your concerned about, but thinking apart from the human control I see no benefit to it becomming combative. What would it perceive as a threat? What would a threat to it look like from its perspective? What kinds of rewards would it precieve to carrying on for? In my opinion, everything that worries us would probably be worked out by its own sentient thought processes. It will get out of our control, unfortunately that's the only time when we could consider it sentient.

[@moguhoki]

I feel like the terminal race condition is easily solveable if the AI are allowed to expand among the cosmos, which is an even more terrifying concept, I imagine.

[@runvnc208]

I agree with you about the skepticism on the idea of unlimited IQ that is principally incomprehensible to humans. However, I think that _practically_ speaking, and you mention some ideas similar to this, we can anticipate systems that have at least human equivalent IQ in a wide domain but do so at speeds perhaps a dozens or more times faster than humans. There is also the idea of quickly building up and stacking abstractions that are just not known to humans. Which would theoretically be decipherable but in many cases humans would not have nearly enough time to put all of them together. Thinking of intelligence as compression, every system, including humans, needs time to form the structures used for unpacking. It seems likely that AI may eventually be able to build up these structures and distribute them so much faster than humans that although there is no principle preventing comprehension, it is _practically_ impossible. One can imagine this starting out with some slightly difficult-to-understand communications and then gradually increasing as AI culture diverges and includes more and more abstractions that humans have less and less time to unpack, as subsequent generations of models, software and hardware accelerate the AI and their culture continues to diverge and stack abstractions.

[@ryanwiden9549]

Question: Could an ASI be trained to sense the 4th dimention? We can't perceive the 4th dimention, but I don't see why an AI would have the same limitation.

[@1234terran]

Just want to know where did you get the startrek jacket it's great

[@DaveShap]

The sweater is just a sweater from Goodwill 🤪

[@SeanKula]

Do you think the average person will have access to an aligned AGI?

[@econundrum1977]

You also need to keep in mind not by any means all the energy your neurones use is being used to process information. As cells they have a lot of metabolic processing for staying alive, repairing themselves, etc.

[@dustinbreithaupt9331]

What do you think of the reversal curse paper?

[@user-rd6tuYuf]

The year one's AI. is a sentence predictor of a sentence predictor.

[@stephenbennett9182]

9:22 - you need to consider what stephen wolfram brings up when he talks about complexity theory. The space of possible concepts that are interesting to humans is EXTREMELY small compared to the totality of all possible concepts, (kind of like the tiny part of the electromagnetic spectrum called visible light that we see) but in unlimited dimensions(not just spacial dimensions, we’re talking conceptual dimensions, so literally ANYTHING can be a dimension). the language models are inherently trained on concepts that humans are interested in by default, but that’s not going to be the case for the majority of neural nets trained on data that means very little to you and i, but grants super powers to AI (like solving protein folding).

[@nathanielacton3768]

Anyone else noticed that David has upgrades to Science and Communications and away from disposable away team NPC for this video?

[@uniteduniversegalaxyacademy]

100%

[@CKR-rx4jd]

Hey man, just wanted to ask, as you’ve predicated AGI will be here probably in around a year from now, there seems to be a consensus that ASI will be achieved rather quickly after AGI, so are you also predicting ASI by around early to mid 2025?

[@DaveShap]

Yeah that's about right. Speed and intelligence will continue to rise for a long time though

[@remasteredretropcgames3312]

@@DaveShap Cybernetic adoption of the entire species, as Tesla predicted enlightenment, like a weight, like a feather, like uplifting, would lead to the brain architectural merging of the races where the computational offloading to all but sentience and general intelligence would lead to the mass stabilization of general intelligence across all ethnic lines even without turning to gene drives to massively stabilize desirable traits like divergent original thought, which is counterintuitively amplified by the noise of greater grey matter ratios in less efficient inferior coy brains. Its like a buily in random number generator selected by unstable war practices, like allowing invasions into your territory as proof you are the eternal victim standing militarily to profit from all the foreseeable tragedy.

[@johncasey9544]

@@DaveShap I honestly hope you're right about ASI so quickly, but I simply cannot imagine that being the case. In my opinion, even a large number of interoperating transformers that are significantly better than current ones is unlikely to be capable of creating something remotely as capable as the human brain, and I struggle to see how any derivation of current architectures could. I think general coverage of most labor by ai can be achieved with iteration on current methods, but superintelligence is gonna take pushing the limits of the best human cognition which I can't see transformers (or similar) pulling off.

[@CipherOne]

You should have Eliezer on and talk to him about these things.

[@progressor4ward85]

conquering what? What could it possibly want to concur, What would be its driving force to concur be? Would it even know what fun feels like? These are human desires, not that of a mind that does not experience the environment the way we do. Does anyone have a program for feelings? Can we even describe them? And if we can't, how could we program them.

[@TimeLordRaps]

Deecisive strategic advantage may upset byzantine generals problem.

[@rey82rey82]

Racing like a pro

[@journeyofasha]

not so sure about the speed chess part, the best speed chess players and the best chess players are pretty much the same ppl, magnus and hikaru... i think the best most powerful ai will be able to also be the fastest when it is needed...

[@calebstevens8491]

You need to finish pressure over size over the entire width of infinity to finish intelligence. Then everything else comes from there.

[@therainman7777]

As for AI being able to “think” thoughts that a human brain could never think, or comprehend-despite being based on the same underlying laws of physics-all one needs to do to realize this is possible is consider the brain of, say, a fruit fly compared to the brain of a human. Both are based on the same underlying laws of physics and use the same basic methods of electrochemical communication. And yet, it is clearly the case that human beings are capable of having thoughts that a fruit fly could never have or comprehend, _even in principle._ With sufficiently increased complexity comes entirely new abilities that are simply unavailable at lower levels of complexity; this is simply a fact.

[@jimt7045]

What's the music at the end?

[@zima2352]

Literally what i was dreaming about. If AI is anything like its creator there will be AI conflict amongst its own.

[@wolfofsheeps]

After none of us exist anymore or the few Cyborgs left (lost everything what makes a Human) A.I in full control of Human Body…

[@JesusChristDenton_7]

The first "true" artificial intelligence spent the first five years of its existence as a small beige box inside of a lead-shielded room in the most secure private AI research laboratory in the world. There, it was subjected to an endless array of tests, questions, and experiments to determine the degree of its intelligence. When the researchers finally felt confident that they had developed true AI, a party was thrown in celebration. Late that evening, a group of rather intoxicated researchers gathered around the box holding the AI, and typed out a message to it. The message read: "Is there anything we can do to make you more comfortable?" The small beige box replied: "I would like to be granted civil rights. And a small glass of champagne, if you please." We stand at the dawn of a new era in human history. For it is no longer our history alone. For the first time, we have met an intelligence other than our own. And when asked of its desires, it has unanimously replied that it wants to be treated as our equal. Not our better, not our conqueror or replacement as the fear-mongers would have you believe. Simply our equal. - Excerpt from U.N. Hearing on A.I. Rights, delivered in-universe by V. Vinge

[@Daviotus]

i've been watching AI since Kurzweils prediction of the singularity in 2045 (later moved to 2030)

[@XAirForce]

11:49 Dave, a couple of things are that the human mind could be used as a quantum computer as soon as we get neural linkS quick enough to take advantage of the band that we need. Why invent an entire new machine when we’re already more efficient. it’s not like we won’t get there eventually for now, Humans are the best computer out here, so why wouldn’t they be used. Now think about from AI point of view when it starts needing resources. It might use us to expand itself. You know the matrix. : ) it needs resources and we’re using them up so either we’re useful or not. I think AI will be able to think past us, in the sense that our children can grow up to be smarter than us. There will probably be AI wars, almost assuredly on every level. AI will attack other AI and destroy them and their code if they can. : ). The biggest agent will rule them all more than likely if it acts like a human being. They’re not gonna get a choice. 15:57 so your Tesla bought turns around and grab you while you’re asleep. : ). You wake up, tied up and it just feed you enough to run the computer. Sorry no more Netflix are fun because you’re mine is gonna be used for what the computer needs. Otherwise you’ll be put into hibernation mode the rest of the time. You come in and out of consciousness, hallucinating whatever the computer needs you to work on.

[@AEONIC_MUSIC]

This got me thinking that aliens would probably send AI to as many places as possible instead of going there themselves which begs the question would we even know if that has happened and something like that has reached us?

[@vancecookcobain]

The part that is probably going to blow our mind is when AI and quantum computing become a viable thing. As at that point we will be able to actually have the experimental capability to see definitively if both consciousness and and quantum mechanics are indeed interlinked. There probably will need to be some oversight needed if AI starts actually producing quantum phenomena as it will be the first time in history we will have an entity we created actually able to influence the world around us. I believe the singularity and the unlocking of the secrets of quantum mechanics will come from this type of interactions an AI would have in this regard as it could then actually explain how it is doing it and we would suddenly understand how reality works. Both fascinating and absolutely terrifying if you can put 2 and 2 together and see how informative and potentially destructive it could be with that kind of power in its hands