Meteorological Breakdown: Deadly Tornadoes Ravage Mississippi - March 24, 2023

[@BruceDeluxe]

I don't often comment on videos, but I just want to let you know that the level of detail, and your insight into these event reviews is on a tier all to their own, and is much appreciated. The same can be said for your forecasting videos. A lot of other KZbinrs will just show some Precip Rate/P-Type maps etc with just some generic commentary, but it leaves people such as myself (and it appears many others from the other commenters on this video) a little bit unsatisfied. It may not be everyone's cup of tea, and that's understandable, but these nitty gritty breakdowns are exactly what I'm looking for in a channel covering severe weather and I think I've finally found another good one to add to my collection! I found your channel through the video you did on the analysis of the anomalous California tornado and I've been hooked ever since. Never change sir! :)

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much for the kind words! I really appreciate it!

[@bigbizz3503]

Bud, you are the GOAT for not charging your followers for this content. Thank you so much. These videos mean more than you know. Good luck this season. I think we're in for something pretty wild this year.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! I plan on keeping it that way for the foreseeable future. I agree, this season has and should continue to stay very active into at least April.

[@Ryandupont0896]

Yes!! I’ve been waiting for this. Praying for everyone affected throughout the deep south.

[@Hayden2002WX]

It was it was nightmarish to chase

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

Thanks for the kindness. I was watching Ryan Hall Y'all, Reed Timmer, and our local NBC affiliate WAFF 48 outta Huntsville, AL during their coverage of the storms, and as an EF2 was getting ready to strike my hometown of Florence, AL. Amory, MS was about to get slammed by that monster that devastated that city. We were lucky that the 🌪 that hit where I live didn't actually touchdown or wasn't on the ground until it was north/northeast of my location in the St Florian community. If it had been on the ground, there would have been alot more damage and possibly some really bad injuries. One of those possible injuries would have been my dumb-arse for trying to record the storm as it moved in. I was wearing a football helmet though, so no blunt force trauma would have been the cause lol. I seen Hackleburg and Phil Campbell 3 days after that EF5 ripped those communities apart, and what happened to my town was a mere scratch compared to what Rolling Fork, and Amory, MS dealt with Friday night. They need those thoughts and prayers.

[@JusTryNc]

Been looking for this video all week!

[@chdreturns]

Even tho They voted in old tech unsavvy senators who are gonna fuck us all with the RESTRICT act cuz they don't understand shit about tech they still peoplel. Mark Warner is one of em and ima start a drive in my state to Primary his ass. This aint right v left this is a we need young blood in politics. Its grown geriatric.

[@chdreturns]

​@@MetallicAAlabamA Eww Ryan Hall is trash.

[@pepsibluefan2]

Now I have an addiction to your meteorological breakdowns and this doesn't fail to deliver. I was watching coverage of this event as it happened and at first it wasn't doing much. It wasn't until one of the chasers reported an rear flank down draft surge after it crossed the lake that particular cell became active. Another group was reporting winds that were going straight into the storm before that tornado was reported. There was tons of lightning and was really a light show with this particular storm. When I start chasing I just have a general rule of thumb to not chase dixie alley storms and night tornadoes just make me nervous even if there is lightning. I would stick to those slower moving tornadoes in the great plains personally. Dixie just scares me too much and a storm motion of 60 mph would also mean if you fall behind the storm it would be very difficult to catch back up. Great video and the lessons learned at the end of the video were really important for chasers to know.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! Really well said!

[@wheninrome71]

Love these analysis videos! Thanks for sharing your knowledge!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much!

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

Ikr! Anytime someone shares the invigorating brain food for free, I'm all for it lol. People better take advantage of all this knowledge that we are able to learn about that would cost tens of thousands of bucks if you were to go to college for a degree. Don't get me wrong, it's not learning to get a degree, but if you pay attention, fill your mind with all of these knowledge filled topics, if you do happen to want to get a degree, you'll have an easier path than if you went in blind. And these folks love to talk about what they know and how they know it. That's what makes them some of the best teachers out there. And I for one wouldn't want it to change. But someday it may not be available like this. And if people would stop with the woo woo bs, that would help too. Not going on a tangent, just thought I'd put that out there lol. What was it that Sargent Friday woudl say - "Just the facts!" wasn't it?

[@13_cmi]

That hook as the storm headed into armory was as good as it gets. Never seen anything like that. I’m surprised that wasn’t the strongest tornado. I guess the fast forward speed made the velocity signature on the inbounds look worse.

[@danielwieten8617]

Every time I hear “170 mph winds” and “low end EF4” and then look at some of the damage right before and into Rolling Fork, I’m astounded. Some of that vegetation damage, wood missles sticking out of cars, etc. just doesn’t jive in my head as anything but high end EF4. Makes me wanna take up civil/structural engineering so I have a deeper understanding.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yeah; it has a lot to do with how well the buildings are built. Unfortunately in rural MS, the buildings are just not constructed that well, meaning that it takes a lot less force from wind to destroy them. But I’m far from an expert at damage surveying; there are a lot of intricacies that go into these ratings.

[@bdunk914]

It seems like the only difference between a low end Ef4 and a EF5 is usually the amount of wind rowing that occurs

[@StormChaserMommaG]

they raised the winds to 190. there were some newer built homes & bldgs totally destroyed as well. I'm not an expert or certified on all that but, I know what I saw first hand.

[@supertornadogun1690]

@@ConvectiveChronicles As it turns out some of the buildings were quite well built

[@shaytrueblueaussie]

@@StormChaserMommaGAnd they’ve raised it to 195 now. Crazy

[@AtOddsAlways]

Excellent analysis and kudos for the cautions. I'll echo a talk that the SPC's RE and his co producer, RJ Evans used to do, titled "It's Only a Matter of Time." We almost had it happen here. Again. (Although in all fairness to the loss of the El Reno 4, there was no comparison to the tracks.) The chaser impacts on Friday should never have happened, period.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I agree; I have a feeling we're going to see some even worse, potentially fatal incidents as the number of new and/or inexperienced chasers grows.

[@kade_ydstie6617]

Anytime I see a vortex hole at the end of a discrete supercell I always know there is bound to be a strong-violent tornado with that cell. Have seen that so many times in the past couple of years with very similar results each time.

[@jaredpatterson1701]

I was born in Amory Mississippi. It's sad to see the destruction these tornadoes caused. Fortunately, none of my relatives were hurt, but still this shows why we can't take any days off in preparation!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I'm glad your relatives made it out ok!

[@jaredpatterson1701]

@@ConvectiveChronicles thanks!

[@StormChaserMommaG]

Thank you for the breakdown. We were some of the chasers on this storm, watched her from basically a rain cloud. She looked interesting, we looked at the line ahead of it & all that you mentioned. It was "odd" on how she grew to that monster in no time, how she didn't get shredded like the other storms. We didn't have much time to really dig into why or how after she went Tor Warn then Tor E & for a few days after. We SAW her, while sitting/watching on Hwy 61 & knew it was going to be very bad for those in the path. We were one of the first ppl on the scene. Chasers & ppl from surrounding areas that could make it in were the only ones doing SAR for abt 2hrs. EMS couldn't get through. It was absolute devastation. Before anyone fusses, I am NOT wanting attention or anything. I am telling a very small portion of what my team & I experienced. MANY chasers went to that storm, guess we all saw the possible potential. It was exactly what we DO NOT want to see or happen. A huge THANK YOU to all the Chasers & community people that helped. Many wouldn't have survived if they had to wait for EMS. The people of Rolling Fork were & are very grateful for everyone that was there within minutes of getting hit, I know because I spoke to a lot of them & continue to talk to some today. One lady who my son rescued said, Y'all got here fast! Was y'all in that storm too? He replied- Well sorda, we are Storm Chasers. Her- You mean y'all CHASE THOSE TORNADOES?! Him- Yes ma'am Her- Y'all CRAZY! but somebody gotta do it! I heard the tv say Tornado emergency, it was on the ground take cover NOW! I was going to my hall closet & was knocked down & then my house, it just exploded! I prayed to God & I opened my eyes & there you were. Y'all saved my life! I will pray for all Storm Chasers til the day I die! Ask anyone that was there & I will bet they tell you the same thing or something very close! Praying for MS & all of the other areas that have been hit over the last few months.

[@runt9]

Man, where to even begin with this event. First off, incredible breakdown, you really dug into some of the more obscure things like showing those inflow and outflow vectors and how that affected the storm shape and visibility, and also I greatly appreciate the small tangent at the end as I know the discussions within the storm chasing community have uhh... "popped off" these past few days. I feel like my comment on the forecast discussion mostly came to fruition, albeit there were a few more tornadoes than I expected. Everything, in my eyes, pointed to the potential for one to two very nasty cells that were going to go beyond nuts within the high shear environment and that's essentially what we got. But I did not believe, even with the SRH values we were seeing, that we'd see anything this upper-echelon given the middling lower-level instability. I never imagined we'd see a supercell persist for over 100 miles and drop 3 seriously powerful tornadoes. One interesting synoptic scale thing I noticed, along with the confluence bands, there were some small kinks in the flow at 500mb right over the moderate risk region as well. I wonder if that played into some of the stronger updrafts as well. I honestly am blown away by how quickly the ingredients all came together, too. That outflow boundary pushed the clouds away in the morning, mixed the air greatly, and yet between about 5pm and 7pm all that moisture came back and the LLJ ramped up to frankly absurd levels, I think I spotted tiny areas of 65kt+. I also am as curious as you about where all that dry air was coming from. I still think it has to do with the deep high pressure ridge over the gulf sucking some of the EML out from the west and transporting it in a roundabout way over the gulf, but that's a weird theory. I made many more notes here as I watched the video. Constructive interference, sudden uptick in 3CAPE right at the end, the massive vortex hole, there's just so much to talk about with this event. But I'll tell you the #1 thing I want to dig into more is the effect the Mississippi River has on tornadogenesis because holy hell did that tornado come together quickly the instant it finished crossing, and I saw multiple people say "yeah that's just what happens" and I don't know or understand the cause right now. I feel like that's something to watch out for on severe weather days like this in the future, potentially even Friday as we have the Enhanced risk basically floating along hundreds of miles of the big river. As per usual, thanks again for another wonderful video Trey, and I look forward to the forecast for Friday's event, I'm sure it'll be a big one!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! This was a textbook example of shear being the driving factor behind tornadic vs nontornadic supercells. Even though the instability can be modest, the shear can really overcome and produce some monsters. The small kinks you mention at 500 mb are interesting. I do wonder if those were convectively enhanced, but it is something to look into. I have also noticed the MS River often being a defining boundary for strengthening of storms coming out of LA/AR. I'm not sure if it's just coincidental or if there's actually some science there (I tend to think it's coincidental), but it definitely could be an interesting research topic.

[@pepsibluefan2]

I am really curious about that Mississippi River too. I think it would be interesting if someone took all the cases of all the tornadoes that have crossed the Mississippi River and do a case study to see if they can find any common theme between them. On the morning of the event I did not check the shew-t to see all of that dry air. Seems to be a mystery where that dry air came from.

[@speakerpythia]

The perfect way to end my work day. Thank you for your insight, Trey; I always learn something new.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Happy to hear that; thank you!

[@MightyMuffins]

Alright got the chance to view this cause work. Also that starting shot of Max Olson, probably the best video of the storm and it's wild how you can see a solid horizontal vortex on the tornado and usually the top EF4 and Ef5s usually you'll see that...usually. SPC truly nailed this forecast so many days out....actually last many months they been really reading the long term modeling data well issuing well done Day 5-7 forecasts that usually have panned out. All those events too been helping them pin point stuff too so more frequency you see it better. Oh that jet streak breakdown brings back good memories at SUNY Oneonta and Dr. Grimaldi and Dr. Blechman grilling that into us though I mostly knew this beforehand compared to my class peers. Usually it was right Entrance and left Exit but it's interesting how on some of these storm set ups the right exit regions you get pretty solid diffluence and as you pointed out it's the more subtle set ups and stuff. That I think back in 2007-2011 it wasn't well studied as much in more modern data that we focused on that region but since 2014 I have picked up on the right exit region for severe weather for events and seem to produce pretty damn well. Do remember when you posted that Dallas pre-sounding....that is one of the more crazy deep moist layer capped environments you'll see. That's almost like like a "shotgun loaded" sounding in a way as I once called those types cause of how huge the moist layer is compared to like 850mb capped classic gun soundings. Now onto the storm mode itself yeah those storm really took a while to cook and they were getting obliterated most of the afternoon and stuff from the shear. Kind of like that one set up in January in the Southeast where we had like the 10 tornado warnings pop up at once but the tornado threat never could get going really cause while isolated the storms were too small to keep sustained. As for the Rolling Fork storm, yeah I saw the echo hole too on radar as the tornado was going on. That was so insane and it was clear as day on Radarscope and you really don't see that on 88D radar like that unless it's a top tornado. Post the 2 tornadoes, I think it was a lot of just messy mode as you said but I think those small showers ahead of the armory storm helped with a lot of constructive interference and new strong upscale updraft/inflows and that really ramped up so quick. That Amory storm was to me even more impressive than the Rolling Fork storm in terms of how insane the presentation was on radar and how incredibly wrapped up that storm stayed with the velocities and debris ball. Though, nothing still beats a vortex hole, cause that's just so rare at times and not often you see that. Oh and awesome look on the proximity sounds cause it really showed how insane the shear as forecasted really ramped up to produce both of the huge tornadoes. Overall, just one hell of a event. As for the chasers thing at the end....I personally thing, the mindset to get close to these tornadoes and "outdo" people for video and content is the main issue. I mean yeah I agree too this was a fairly easy tornado in a way to chase as it was pretty straight for most part with minimal wobbles but one should not have been in the path of this, well chasers wise. Now Trey for me I think this has to do with social media and chasers in general hyping up to get "the shot" or "if I am not close to it, then my content is not good enough"....adrenaline rush too? At some point we will be losing chasers again due to a tornado. My friend that lives in OKC last 6 years from NYC said he's usually not that impressed with storms unless it's usually the big stuff cause he's seen so much out there that even the normal moderate stuff has become routine for him and "boring". I think this has been what has happening where the "never stop chasing" motto has become, "We need to chase EVERYTHING at all cost with no breaks on skipping events". I think the advent also of the livestreaming of chasing to where it's a focus of entertaining viewers with content and putting yourself in a risky spot for youtube weather streamers also watching the streams and having so much attention is also the cause for chasers to be in these situations that seem so obvious to avoid. I PERSONALLY don't like getting withing 4 miles of a storm, well unless you get what you get here in Albany NY which is lot of wind and shelf clouds so you're kind of just gonna get whatever you get hit with filming but with tornadoes this seems like such an obvious thing to avoid. I usually enjoy seeing the structure of a storm and keeping my distance for the most part filming and I never gotten into the mindset of "I need to be right up on the storm". I think it's personally healthy for chasers to take a break or 2 if possible....like chasing from Oklahoma and then to Montana the next day and then back to Texas for a series is crazy....my friends and I had this last year and we just took the one day in-between off and we were out there for only 8 days in June...we are limited but knew our limits. I think also the midset to try and make a living off full time chasing is a problem too cause in reality only a handful of people can honestly do that and they have so many connections with top news/TV/weather companies that it's possible but I think the younger crowd of 16-23 has grown up seeing the older generation of chasers and they are chasing that dream. It's so risky too and that where in lies the "outdo" mentality where people are trying to "compete" for the top shot of the event or tornado and upset when they miss a tornado or stuff. Like yeah, would I and have we as my friends been really pissed we miss tornadoes/landspouts when others have gotten it, yup but the storms we were on were fantastic in my opinion and I had a good time seeing what we did. Again maybe that's cause I live in Albany, NY and the stuff we get out there pale so much for what we get in NY but still I enjoy it out there and up here too even when returning. I think this tornado or bust mentality has gotten so ingrained in the chaser community it's a problem....like for example most people hate shelf clouds but to me, I love them. Chasers are setting goals too damn high honestly yearly where it's like 20 tornadoes one year and then annoy or upset when next season they only get 7......I'd kill to get ONE tornado seen on video personally. Last 5 years we been out there for the 8-10 days we do in early June we've seen 1....a 5 minute landspout (on my YT channel) in 2021 but it was AWESOME and we were hype and we were the ONLY chasers on that in Western Nebraska that saw it and reported it in. But I know I can't make this a full-time thing but I enjoy what I can chase when I can. Tell you the truth Trey, when chasing in the Midwest for the 8 days we do each year, my friends and I fear lightning the most and I ESPECIALLY do here in Albany....but that's also the product too of where I grew up. I am not "lucky" to have grown up or live in the plains and Midwest and Southeast like it seems like majority of chasers or ones that chase MONTHS in the Midwest to be wary of lightning but that's my biggest fear to me....but again that's cause I usually keep my distance on storms overall so it's natural that's where my caution for lightning stems compared to most even if it's kind of low. Lightning, can do stuff you don't expect even if you take the precautions....it has no rules sometimes. Anyway that's just my thoughts on this little bit....I have more but it's just kind of similar to this said already just in a bit more detail I won't bore people with. :D

[@sabishiihito]

That one that hit Amory looked even more intense than the one that hit Rolling Fork, but ended up getting a lower rating as you indicated. Reminds me of May 3, 1999 Moore F5 vs Mulhall F4 where the latter was larger and potentially stronger, but didn't hit as much and thus got a lower rating.

[@thebroderickhoward]

Once again, another amazing video!! So interesting to see how different storm systems work and how every supercell is different. Great job!👏

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!!

[@wendyc1902]

Man you did a great job with this video. There's alot of detail I don't quite understand, but learning it is quite interesting. Your hard work does not go unnoticed! I'm in NW Louisiana so I've had my fair share of close calls with twisters. My area gets severe storms and tornados almost every Easter Sunday or Easter weekend. This analysis is greatly appreciated 🙂

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@Lavacommand]

Love your Analysis like always

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much!

[@MrMotor11]

This is excellent review and synopsis of the events that day. A lot of good info that can be applied to many various storm scenarios. Keep up the great work sir!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@MsSasha4444]

Your information is so important to help save lives in the future. Thank you for all that you do. These are terrifying events. 1:55

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@dillyboyq]

Been waiting for this! Awesome analysis as always, Trey! Curious to see what happens these next few weeks as they’ll be very active as well. Keep up the content!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@peachxtaehyung]

I've been anxiously waiting for this!

[@lnrailroad3215]

Wonderful & very insightful explanation! Glad I'm subscribed!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@GillFan26]

Horizontal Vortex. Those are usually associated with EF4-EF5 tornadoes

[@zackjakosh]

In the future, could you possibly do a case study on the memorial day outbreak of 2019? I get curious on this a lot mainly cause of how close it hit to me at the time.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It's on my list!

[@zackjakosh]

@@ConvectiveChronicles awesome!! The Dayton, Ohio tornado never leaves my head.

[@tornadoclips2022]

I’m glad you uploaded this and I hope we can learn from this and I hope good things come out of what happened that day. R.I.P and I hope things get better for anyone effected

[@nicholaskrasznavolgyi6340]

Great video Trey, looking forward to more content in the future.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much!

[@Lightnang_]

Yeah definitely some significant outflow I was looking at the radar on cod and there were many storm cells coming into the main band. Nice video it was very informational

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@melissawalker4093]

Thank you so much for doing this.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you for watching!

[@fgossage]

Rich Thompson talked about the right exit region multiple times in his tornado forecasting KZbin series from several years back. He pointed out that in a cyclonically curved jet streak, the typical four quadrant model breaks down into effectively more of a two region model with some of the divergence spilling over into the right exit region, and the upward/downward motion being more of an exit/entrance thing. As a result, MANY large scale tornado outbreaks have repeatedly happened in the right exit region. He explained that the four quadrant model works best with straight jet streaks but instantly gets modulated with increasing amounts of even subtle cyclonic curvature to the flow.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yep, that’s correct. I’ve seen plenty of notable severe events in the right exit region. That model is definitely most applicable to straight jet streaks, which are fairly rare in practice.

[@Im-just-Stardust]

This event was completely crazy. The radar signature were very scary when going through amory, it was sad to watch.

[@ryguy9664]

easily the best videos on youtube. Thanks!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@drgonzo767]

Great video again, Trey. I like to think I have a pretty good handle on concepts, but always pick up a thing or two from you. Perhaps I should call your videos lectures.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@ryguy9664]

Had to review potentially the most violent tornado this year. Amazing the COW data that was seen in this and I was curious, what is the largest weak echo hole that has been seen? And is the weak echo hole somewhat representative of the width of the tornado? Thanks for an amazing year of content! Happy New Years!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you; Happy New Year to you too! I’m not sure about the largest weak-echo hole ever documented, but there have been several journal articles written about it. Just search for “weak-echo hole tornado” and you’ll see a ton of cases. I do know Greensburg, KS, tornado had a very well-defined one which was even seen on data from both hi-res mobile radar and from the normal WSR-88D, which is pretty rare. The tornado itself is often wider than the WEH; the WEH is more indicative of where the center of the tornado is, which is where debris and hydrometers get centrifuged outward (hence the lack of reflectivity). But the actual tornadic circulation is often larger.

[@ryguy9664]

@@ConvectiveChronicles awesome thank you for that answer and being from Kansas I definitely have watched your case study on greensburg a few times now. Just an incredible event overall meteorologically

[@conner1715]

you're going to do a forecast discussion for this fridays event right? models seem to be showing some ridiculous shear so i'm curious to see how this one plays out....love the content man

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yes, I'll be doing a forecast discussion either tomorrow or Friday morning.

[@krzy1867]

When chasing hodographs with very little deviant tornado motion and very good updraft venting, a solid way to stay out of a tornado’s path for absolute sure is to give at least a 2 mile line at the same angle as the tornado’s motion to the SE of the tornado that simply should not be crossed, which will account for any wobbles in the trajectory and practically guarantee the tornado doesn’t direct impact, at least estimating this position far ahead of time on any storms that chasers head to is a smart play as well to be proactively positioned safely

[@krzy1867]

Outstanding analysis though of a hallmark day in the southeast as always though Trey

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

These breakdowns are some of my favorite weather videos to watch. I know I've told you this a number of times, but you give the best detailed analysis out there. Are you just gonna continue this type of research and study when it comes to severe weather, or are you going to become a news meteorologist? And referring to the 🌪 that rolled through my home county of Lauderdale here in northwest Alabama wasn't on the ground as it came through, but if it had been, there likley would have been some serious injuries in my neighborhood. Luckily the North Alabama Medical Center is in my backyard basically lol. And dude, alot of people appreciate what you and the other weather nuts do to help save lives. And you should be thanked daily imo. Does Oklahoma have the best studies in atmospheric science or would you say maybe another university? Ol' Boomer Sooner gone be rolling in with the Longhorns in the SEC pretty soon. Best programs should be in the best conference imo😉.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I always appreciate the support! I am definitely not going to become a news meteorologist; I am not a fan of being in front of the camera…OU does seem to have one of the better meteorology programs in the country, especially for radar and tornadoes, which is why I went there to get my masters.

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

@@ConvectiveChronicles You're more than welcome my friend. You guys deserve all the thanks yall recieve, and neither one of you care about the praise. Yall do it because you love the science behind the weather that our planet produces, and you care about human life, which is probably the most important thing to you guys. I don't think science in general gets the respect that it should. Whether you have a religious belief or you don't, regardless science is a self correcting process, and does not heed to nothing but what evidence provides. I'm not trying to talk into or at anyone to choose whether to believe in science, just that the evidence compells me to go with it, and do my best to understand it. And what I love about atmospheric science is that all of the air that we breathe, we feel. Even though we don't see it. It's all particulate matter. And the fact that it can go from a breeze on your skin to a large mass of condensation that creates this cloud that holds tons and tons of water that floats above our heads, but let it get to a certain point, then gravity takes over and pulls it back down as rain. And during all that, we get friction which causes lightning, these ropes of current that form in an instant, which causes a massive explosion we call thunder. Lol, it's funny because I was teaching my son one day as we were playing in the living room, and of course when you shuffle your feet, especially when you're wearing flannel or his one zip wanzi. And you touch a door knob it will shock you. But I would show him the small sparks. And I said- "Imagine being a dust mite, or one of those water bears, and you were next to that little spark. It would be like thunder to those little small things of life." And he actually understood what I explained. Idk, I just think alot of kids are kept away from learning one of the most important studies in our history on this planet. And we could do so much better for ourselves, for our fellow human beings, and the future. Anyway, I was one of those kids growing up that my parents really didn't take to science to well. Felt it wasn't necessary for me to learn. So I really didn't start getting deep into it until after 10th grade. I've always had an eagerness to learn, but never was given the opportunity to grow in that sense. I guess that is why I am so kid like when I talk about it at 44 years old. Wait...I'm not 44...or am I? Where has time gone? 😂...😭 I love history, and historical data and information. Especially when it comes to college football. Love it! I could tell you how many titles a school has, how many Heisman trophy winners, who their coaches were, and all the way down to the years they started playing football. Also love to learn about the history of our country. Though I don't fully agree with how it all played out, I can't change the fact I'm here today, and living here. I just want our next in line to learn from it. There is alot of connections between Alabama and Oklahoma. Alot of my dad's side of the family moved to Tulsa back years ago, and of course the trail of tears has its roots here in the Tennessee Valley region. I don't know if you like interesting history about the American Natives. But check our 'Tom Hendrix's Wall'. I won't spoil the story if you wanna check it out. Nothing really time consuming to read or anything. Just a fascinating story about this dude who spent his entire life collecting stones that were around 5lbs each, from different spots around the area, and other places. But he did it for his great, great grandmother. Who was an American Native who was sent out to Oklahoma during the relocation period. She walked all the way back to here in Lauderdale County Alabama. Why? Because there were no rivers that would sing. And if you dig deeper into the music history of the Muscle Shoals area, it would make total sense as to why they call the Tennessee River the "Singing River " I could go on all day with this lol. Just want you to know that you're about the only damn Boomer Sooner I'd even consider having a cold one with lol. Have a great one my friend! And sorry such a long reply, I didn't mean to get this long. Probably a ton of spelling errors, punctuation disasters, oh well lol.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@MetallicAAlabamA Wow, that is really powerful; thank you for taking the time to share all this! You're absolutely right; I just love the science behind the weather and helping people learn how to process that science to become better at making decisions surrounding the weather.

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Well, make sure your atmospheric science education is ready to protect folks because it looks like a couple of doosies is on their way. And after next week's system, the train looks to keep a comin' lol.

[@MetallicAAlabamA]

@@ConvectiveChronicles I've got a feeling next week's system may be a real bad one.

[@tekjess_]

I share your same thoughts about the chasers that got caught in the storm. I would like to hear from their side, maybe they didn't have access to data, or maybe there were other factors. Thanks for the video, it was very informative!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I’m not sure we’ll ever know the full circumstances, but hopefully it’s a situation that can be avoided in the future.

[@conoregan5363]

I love your videos! Reminds me of watching film when I used to play football. Keep it up man!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much!

[@MTS930]

Excellent as always

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@kmaviation442]

beautful analysis

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@bigtodd]

Having the strongest tornado since 2015 strike your town in the nighttime has to be one of the scariest events to live through.

[@drckargaming]

Hey Trey, love the breakdowns! I just have a question. A few hours before all the stuff broke out, there was a very very nice looking descrete supercell in southern Mississippi that had a very visible hook and mesocyclone type shape visible on reflectivity that was in a favorable atmosphere for Tornadoes. This cell lasted for about an hour, but it didn't produce anything. The velocity from radar was very bad, and so my question is why this cell that was definitely capable of producing a tornado, did not produce?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I touched on it briefly in the video, but I believe that storm struggled because of the well-mixed air out ahead of it. Temperature-dewpoint spreads were near or above 20 degrees F, which is on the very high end for tornadic supercells. I think this promoted too much outflow production that would undercut the meso.

[@myria9644]

i was waiting for this!, thank you i have something weather to watch today

[@Xyls7]

Any plans on doing a Case Study on the 2019 Beauregard tornado? Always, been one of the worst ones this century that I don't know much about.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It’s on my list!

[@alabamared2568]

My town in Alabama hartselle to be exact at 12:50 am we got hit with an EF-2 that crossed hwy 31 less than a mile from me ..this was the same cell that spun up the rolling fork and Amory ms tornadoes we did have 1 fatality from this EF-2 😢

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Glad you made it out ok.

[@ryanranard5187]

What was the wind speed of the EF4 from Rolling Rock?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Preliminary 170 mph

[@DanRoss11]

I've never considered how clustering updrafts might shield each other from extreme wind shear. Makes sense!

[@almercraft488]

The tornado of Rolling Fork,Ms is the most terrifying and destructive tornado, ever.I have never seen or heard of a tornado so destructive that caused so much destruction as this one.Very, very powerful.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

We’ve seen more destructive tornadoes before, but this one certainly left its mark.

[@wpbarchitect1800]

Great work as always, and fascinating for those of us interested in meteorology. I don't think more study can do much re: safety, however. This event was about as well forecast, far in advance and on a macro and micro scale, as could be, and without question sufficiently. There was a high end tor watch in place, confirmed warning (and I believe tor emergency) on this storm. If that is not enough warning, what would be? At a certain point people living in severe wx prone areas must take responsibility upon themselves to both be prepared in advance (have a plan and safe space set up) and during an event (pay close attention, and take shelter when required.) The NWS other mets and spotter/chaser network did their jobs/played their part in excellent fashion, as they do on virtually all such events today. It's a terrible tragedy when things like this happen, to state the obvious, but at some point people need to be responsible enough to have themselves and their families prepared. In no way am I minimizing the gravity of this event, it's dreadful, and I've donated to a couple local relief orgs in west central MS to help out. My point is, I think the question of why there continue to be casualties during events like these is one of psychology (and perhaps structural engineering, building codes, etc.) not meteorology. And if we are serious about preventing or at least doing our best to mitigate them in the future, we need to accept and face this reality. How many times have we seen chasers in towns with monster tors literally bearing down on them and people are hanging out as if it's just another day/night? On this storm I was watching a chaser's live stream as this monster was crossing the road no more than a mile north of the town of Tchula MS and some guy just casually got out of his car and walked in his house as if not a care in the world. The normalcy bias is indeed a puzzler. In any event, great work as always, and look forward to your analysis of Friday's setup.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! I agree; it's not a meteorology problem, it's a psychology problem. The siren mentality, warning apathy, etc. are big problems and are tough to fix.

[@chrishurst1532]

Where you get your observed soundings from I don’t like the spc

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I use a program called SHARPpy. Same program they use at SPC, they just format theirs a bit differently. sharp.weather.ou.edu/dev/

[@Duck_87]

At the very base of the trough near the GOM would that be considered the tropical jet stream?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I believe this was the polar jet digging down, perhaps joining with the subtropical jet

[@Duck_87]

@@ConvectiveChronicles thank you

[@benarrington1868]

Also the rolling fork Winona and Amory supercell produced tornadoes around and in Huntsville Al

[@VASHtheSTAMPEDE_]

I watched this cell all day and had a bad feeling about it. Crazy how it was just heavy rain with no lightning for the longest time before it exploded into the ef4 producing supercell.

[@grantcovert]

Have learned so much from watching your videos. Just wanted to say thank you!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

So happy to hear that! Thank you!

[@vanessaaftonvanny3289]

Please do the vigo county indiana derecho. We had a state of emergency due to the damage that was done. I also commented for the sullivan indiana tornado of 2023 many people believe it should've been rated higher the damage was horrific.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Not sure which derecho you’re referring to

[@mobetta3456]

We almost lost 2 of our top storm chasers whose cars were picked up and thrown around in the Rolling Fork tornado. I would like to know why it came down so suddenly, seemingly out of nowhere, and was on top of everybody before they realized it. I know it had "crossed the river," and Reed gave some kind of meteorological explanation of why. It was the only branch that might "produce," and boy did it ever produce !!!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Well, I can't answer that, since I don't know what was going on in their head. The tornado formed rapidly as it crossed the river, but there was plenty of time for chasers to get out of the way in Rolling Fork. Really no excuse to get hit given it was visible, in the Delta, and did not have deviant motion. But, everyone makes mistakes, and hopefully they learn from it.

[@mobetta3456]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Thanks. I really learned things from your video, some was over my head, but especially about the couplets and the lines with the updrafts.

[@flaviopons142]

I am just at the beginning, did I hear it killed 2000 people in Rolling Fork? I read 26 on the news and I can't understand if it was a lapsus or if my hearing is going 😅

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Haha no, I said "two dozen"

[@flaviopons142]

@@ConvectiveChronicles I knew it, my ears are going 😂

[@GillFan26]

It looks like a land hurricane with that radar presentation. Wow.

[@greensunfish]

the amory tornado on radar looked very similar to mayfield

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Similar shear yields similar storms!

[@jimmyseaver3647]

Just ended a night with my sister and her friends when I found out what happened. The start of the event seemed kinda questionable, but… this was just absolutely nuts. Absolute 0-100 moment from what I've seen discussed.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yep, absolutely…things ramped up very quickly.

[@hgbugalou]

Right exit region is bread and butter for south east tornados. I never sleep on it in this region.

[@GillFan26]

I know that one of those chasers was ChrisFL. He chases for Ryan Hall.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Correct.

[@thepowercreep]

I've had 2 tornadoes come within miles my home within a weeks period. Amory last week, and Tupelo yesterday. 😅 I should expect my home insurance to go up😂

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Haha dang, you’ve definitely been in the crosshairs. Glad you’ve made it out ok!

[@DSGB2199]

The only excuse I could see is if cell service was so bad radar wasent available. They are too good to be getting hit by a linear moving storm.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Cell service was really good, so that wasn’t an issue.

[@DSGB2199]

@@ConvectiveChronicles well damn

[@SIGINT007]

I'm not throwing stones either, but too many cellphone radar "chasers" and not enough situational awareness or meteorological knowledge is dangerous.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Getting close to a tornado can be done very safely, and Reed is a master at that. As long as situational awareness is maintained (knowing escape routes, possibility of tornado deviance, the meteorology behind the situation, etc.), it can be done effectively.

[@ericascali5427]

😢😢

[@Hayden2002WX]

I have footage of this tornado, I’ll link the chase video on the chance some of you may want to watch: kzbin.info/www/bejne/gWawhqSfi7admqs

[@nikkischoessow4847]

We ARE IN THE PATH OF THE NEXT STORM IN INDIANA PRAY FOR US HERE

[@mattmichael6792]

So chasers had some close calls that night, but how many chasers died? If this tornado was so well forecast, and so obvious on radar and visible in the spectacular lightning WHY DID SO MANY RESIDENTS DIE??? For crying out loud with God knows how many storm chasers around never mind county law-enforcement people everyone should have had ample warning! How many aftermath videos have you seen where the victims are saying, “I had no idea it just suddenly came up and tore the house to smithereens!” I know they don’t have basements and a lot of the houses are not robustly constructed but is infrastructure, poverty, and civilization truly that bad in the south? How does it feel to have escaped Rolling Fork 10 minutes before 2 dozen hapless and apparently helpless citizens lost their lives? I hope this will be a wake-up call to the chaser community not just about their own necks, but about how they can actually help while out there having the times of their lives. It’s certainly a wake up call for me.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I think, unfortunately, it was a combo of the siren mentality, poor infrastructure, apathy for warnings after numerous false alarms, etc.