Meteorological Discussion: Surprise Tornado Outbreak Strikes Indiana and Ohio - March 14, 2024

Meteorological overview of the surprise tornado outbreak that impacted portions of Indiana and Ohio on March 14, 2024. What was initially a conditional all-hazards risk turned into a full-fledged outbreak of damaging tornadoes, some of which were significant, from a bevy of discrete supercells that marched across the region. In this video, we'll discuss the meteorology behind this setup and some of the reasons why this setup may have outperformed expectations.
Thumbnail images via Chris Steinke and From Above Aerial.
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Contents
0:00 Introduction
3:22 Defending official forecasts
7:24 Meteorological breakdown
24:50 Radar analysis
28:43 Observed sounding analysis
34:54 Wrap-up

[@Alferia]

When I kept seeing all the people complain about the SPC not upgrading the outlook, I was reminded of what Richard Thompson told me when I interviewed him back for my December 10th video, "It's much easier to predict something if you already know the answer."

[@Ajolyfellow10]

Truth, man. Some people just don't want to admit they did something wrong or didn't prepare properly.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

BINGO...that's a perfect way to sum it up

[@brandonjvl1987]

​@theweatherexpert3143 It's a lack of preparation and unfortunetly people don't know how to use resources available to them. I completely agree about the MD's that are issued then the following watch. However, a person not in tune with weather forecasting or interested in the weather would have no idea how to first get that info and then understand the statment. Those people watch the weather before work or whatever and that's it. Then they see there's a watch and do nothing. Then there's a warning and by then they are already behind on what they should've been doing minutes to hours in advance... People need to take it upon themselves to become better aware of there surroundings when severe weather is a possibility no matter the probabilities and have multiple ways to receive warnings and know what to do and where to go once one is issued. Again, I do agree with your statment however!

[@Ajolyfellow10]

@brandonjvl1987 True. I get your point. Just pointing out that if they're gonna blame the SPC for not getting it exactly right is silly, especially since they should prepare period. I have them in my prayers but I hope they learn a lesson on top of rebuilding swiftly.

[@alexlefevre3555]

It also goes to say this: a vast majority of people don't even know what an SPC convective outlook is. The odds of those people being aware of this change and the hysteresis between these outlooks and the dissemination to local news makes the lack of an update almost a moot point. It's easy to blame and hard to cope.

[@baTonkaTruck]

I've studied meteorology as a hobby my whole adult life, and never, in any format, have I found a better presenter/educator than you. These videos are a perfect mix of broad meteorology, technical/scientific analysis and contextual queues about deeper concepts like CAPE, shear, soundings/hodographs, etc. Keep it up, this is really great stuff.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! I really appreciate that!

[@baTonkaTruck]

@@ConvectiveChronicles After watching your analyses I realized something that confuses me: in the typical setup, directional shear is anti-cyclonic as it rises. Wouldn't that work against speed shear, streamwise vorticity, and thus storm-relative helicity, which is cyclonic as it rises?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@baTonkaTruck The directional shear isn't actually described as anticyclonic itself...it's a bit hard to visualize without an image to show you, so you'll have to trust me on this one, but the veering winds with height (clockwise turning) create cyclonic rotation in updrafts, which is what we need for tornadic supercells. Speed shear just helps tilt the updraft so the precip doesn't fall directly within the updraft itself.

[@jordanwhite8567]

Probabilities are probabilities. One area can have a 10% chance for tornados and produce zero, another can have a 1% chance and produce 10. That’s just how probability works. In weather and in every other aspect of the universe.

[@dantheman9591]

In some cases there was even tornado outbreaks in a marginal risk with a 2% probability of tornadoes.Sometimes you can have a tornado outbreak in a 5% or 10% probability of tornadoes either way it's better to be prepared regardless if you are in a marginal,slight,enhanced,moderate or high risk and the same goes for the tornado probabilities prepare regardless if you are in a 2%,5%,10% or higher

[@fjordpitsky4486]

@@dantheman9591 But the general populus just isn't going to be prepared for a significant tornado outbreak under an outlook that almost contradicts it. Maybe they should, but they almost definitely won't until we do a better job of educating the public on what these outlooks are supposed to mean. Of course the SPC shouldn't be expected to predict unforeseen events, or there would be no need to make the prediction in the first place. But when rapid deterioration occurs and the picture becomes clearer for a major event, I don't think it's unreasonable to want the SPC to be a little more willing to emphasize that. At the end of the day we're trying to prepare the public and when a large majority of marginal risk days are bright and sunny, it's only natural that the public won't take them seriously enough to be prepared for a major event. The SPC is right to be conservative with higher risk levels so that same cry-wolf effect doesn't bleed over. But when conditions are actively unfolding into higher end territory, it would probably be of more benefit to the public for the updated outlook to reflect that

[@Jeremythetornadofan]

Well weather is way more complex this was a conditional outbreak the hardest to forecast

[@brandonjvl1987]

Completely agree! Here in Southern Wisconsin in February with a marginal risk and Northern Illinois a week or so later is a perfect example. It's why I spot/chase every chance I have... Never know what to expect. Been in many moderate risk and a few high risk that busted but then get a marginal or slight and its a banger!

[@Pila426]

Is it possible that the nomenclature needs to be updated in a way that would make sense to the general public? Y'all are experienced chasers and spotters who know that slight and marginal risk could result in severe weather. To the average person, the terms slight and marginal might suggest that there's not much to worry about. The only reason I know to be concerned when those terms are used regarding severe weather probilities is because I took a spotter class. The SPC and NWS communication to the public needs to be made with not just the meterological/chaser/spotter community in mind, IMO. The primary goal should be clear communication that prompts people to pay attention and be prepared to take precautions.

[@khalifacoe3694]

100% agreed Trey. I think too many people neglect 1-2 out of 5 risks. A risk is a risk.

[@fjordpitsky4486]

People neglect the lower risks because so often it happens that marginal or even slight risk areas don't even see convective activity much less significant severe weather like this. I live in the Atlanta area and have been under at least a marginal risk SEVERAL times this year. Yet there have been maybe 1 or 2 thunderstorms total in my area, very few of them receiving even a special weather statement much less meeting criteria for a severe warning. I agree, a risk is a risk, but it stands to reason people are going to get complacent when it becomes a cry wolf situation like this

[@Eaglesgangforever]

People neglect the lower risk way too much because in some places and some events you could get discrete severe storms which can pop up tornadoes with a little to no warning and hail and damaging winds could be associated with a squall on a risk is a risk, no matter what take it seriously because if you don’t, you might lose your life, pay attention to the forecast and what could be happening because it could change quick

[@fjordpitsky4486]

@@Eaglesgangforever The problem is an extreme majority of low-end risks leave lots of people seeing nothing but clear, sunny weather. Largely because of poor public education, the general population takes those outlooks at face value and see it as a false alarm in the end. It's hard to be prepared for a major event when the vast majority of the time, you see absolutely no weather at all associated with these low-end outlooks. I understand that's the point of them being "low-end", but the public doesn't, and therein lies the issue. The public is who we're trying to warn and prepare because the weather dweebs already know. We need better public communication and education from local meteorologists at the very least

[@khalifacoe3694]

@@fjordpitsky4486I agree with this. I think a lot of it comes down to our local weather service getting information to us as quickly as possible. Some are also too quick to write off any severe threat materializing.

[@zachsteiner]

Oh and the thing is, most people don’t really look at the SPC categorical outlooks. What matters is tornado watches and I’m pretty certain they did put one out for the affected regions. It would’ve been a bigger deal if there wasn’t a watch IMO. Also I personally never even said a word about the lack of the 10% hatched, I was more surprised they didn’t upgrade the hail risk further but no matter what, I understand forecasting is a very tough job.

[@Mayleeey]

I agree, most people don’t go out of their way too look at the SPC catagorical outlooks. But at the same time, if something’s going on, the local weather person, and news stations can use the outlook too alert the public about the threat. And what people are missing is. There’s not much point in updating the catagorical outlook whilst the event is in full swing.

[@tonybozeglav8744]

Let's be honest. The people upset about a lack of an enhanced SPC outlook in the area are almost certainly storm chasers and "weather weenies". SPC/NWS did everything they could with the information they had but still reacted appropriately once the storms fired. Did the region overperform? Yes. Was that region covered by a SPC risk? Also yes. Were the people in the area warned appropriately? I'd argue yes as well. Sometimes things just don't happen the way you think it will.

[@Mayleeey]

@@tonybozeglav8744 Yeah, once the event is going, the only reason for an upgrade is for "weather weenies". It wouldn't help warn the public, because they only look at weather apps or watch the news (or yotubers like Ryan Hall). SPC absolutely did the best they could.

[@thebroderickhoward]

I would say the SPC risk does matter because if a 10# was issued for the area, the local NWS would contact EMS around the area, who would get the word out very effectively to the public. When the NWS forecasters only see a 5% chance for tornadoes, they aren’t going to go to better lengths to get the word out. Also watches are important, and every single one should be respected, but those people are very used to storms like that, and probably took little to no action. If the SPC had upgraded the tornado risk, I feel the locals would have received word that strong tornadoes are possible very quickly, and would have taken more action.

[@BattleshipOrion]

They put out 2 or 3 if I recall.

[@blazernitrox6329]

So here's an amateur's two cents regarding the SPC's outlook. While I agree that the forecasters did the best they could with the information they had available, it shouldn't be left unsaid that the reason the forecasters _didn't_ put IN/OH under a higher risk was because of uncertainties in the models. I understand that the atmosphere is a complex beast, but compared to 50 years ago the NWS's forecasting capability is like some kind of black magic. Arguing that the forecast could have changed completely based on minute changes in the atmosphere shouldn't be taken so much as a rebuttal as a reminder that we need to keep pushing the boundaries of our understanding. Losing even a single life is a tragedy, and we need to keep pushing until that number becomes 0. We need to keep refining our models, keep finding ways to get useful data from our existing weather stations, and even build out more infrastructure if it means that one day, we can reach 0 fatalities.

[@skizzle33]

Have to add this there is run to run variability x even with the RAP and HRRR models. One run can show doomsday, the next hour can show almost nothing. If all the ingredients come together and the cap doesn't break, that's not the models fault or SPC. There was just something there the models didn't see.

[@stormcrow1685]

It might be worth noting that there are already advances in models taking place, especially in the realm of machine learning with the Nadocast algorithm which completely nailed yesterday's event with a large 10% risk area. I've noticed that some NWS forecasters rarely reference the machine learning guidance from Colorado State, so it might be a typical case of the government being slow to adopt new technology. Which is a double-edged sword in all fairness.

[@trutherror]

I agree but I also think mother nature will do what she will when she wills it. Yes an alert at night is better than no alert but for the people sheltering with out a basement or storm shelter I feel like there will always be casualties due to our building prep. If we are going to argue we should never stop improving our readings then we should also argue about prevention building or community storm shelters for people who can't afford to build.

[@IDontBuyIt50]

I literally cannot believe this is even a thing, people being so pathetic at running their own life that they want to blame weather affecting them on another human being. I also can't imagine anyone saying something about getting to zero fatalities. You can have perfect predictive ability and you will not be at zero fatalities. Humans are morons, they go out in bad weather while its going on, they go out while drunk or high, they go out because they have no eff's to give. Zero fatalities isn't good anyway, don't you folks believe in natural selection or what?

[@LeighaBoBeigha]

Agreed. Not to mention, it truly is a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" type of thing. If they don't up the ante, it should still be understood that bad things can happen. We've seen tornados happen outside the risk area by miles before...these things are fluid, as you say. Not to mention, the flip side is if they did worsen the forecast and freak out hundreds of thousands or millions more people then...nothing...the people would begin to lose faith in their predictions and not take them as seriously next time, which they've also dealt with plenty. If my little slice of heaven (east TN) is even in the thunderstorm green (lol) I start checking models and paying attention. I know they don't put out these outlooks with ease or no thought, so I always pay attention. Sadly, most people don't unless they get a warning for their specific area or see a tornado ongoing on social media. It's just an ongoing fight that seems impossible to win...I feel for the amazing folks at the NWS and SPC.

[@Kelvinm21]

This event reminded me of the 2016 Indiana/kokomo tornado outbreak in a sense that the spc didn’t particularly anticipate a tornado outbreak

[@stacie2855]

Ozark, MO had a short-lived, recently confirmed EF0. I'm glad you did a video on this.

[@markmichener9465]

I'm not one to kibitz all that much, but I can't deny I was surprised the outlook was not upgraded by the afternoon outlook. Surface features began deviating quickly from the progged obs. Happend quickly, but definitely noticeable by the afternoon.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

There was definitely better moisture and instability developing after the morning storms, but the more favorable low-level shear environment really only became apparent right before the IN/OH portion of the event began, really after the 20z outlook was issued.

[@markmichener9465]

@@ConvectiveChronicles That's what I meant. I was speaking to the overall severe potential, not specifically the tornado risk(shoulda clarified). The recovery was more pronounced than anticipated. I was still thinking the surface winds would be more veered.

[@TRGTornado]

Well, I said I thought it would go MDT for hail and oh boi, 5.25 inch hail is something! Didn't expect the tornado side of things in Ohio! I was thinking Indianna and Illinois! Great video!

[@arrowguy173]

Yeah and as Timmer pointed out, the tornadoes occurred close to the nose of the surface instability zone which he has seen many times, this time benefiting from the jet ramping up as the evening progressed. Plus IN and OH have had more than one 3”+ hail risk the last couple years which is unreal. I’m in central OH and trying to get more friends and family to expect weather they aren’t used to.

[@Purinmeido]

I did notice around 4:30 pm up here in the Chicago area that the clouds were moving way faster than earlier in the day. I hopped on Ryan’s stream and lo and behold

[@jeretcarrotproductions3510]

Love how in depth these videos are, keep up the good work brother 💪

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much!

[@BattleshipOrion]

I live in Wapakoneta, and have to say that the city proper is fine. Still crazy to see this be national news. Last time my town made National news, Apollo 11 had landed.

[@kevinstern6797]

Not far from Van Wert. Have a friend there.

[@GitGoodGaming]

Im a truck driver who lives in Ohio. I was headed back to ohio that day Mar 14th. That weater turned REALLY fast. The lightning that day was so beautiful. I've always been a fan of severe weather.

[@SgtShultzTO]

An excellent video Trey! Thank you for the insights, as someone who is working towards a meteorology degree I love hearing these discussions as it helps me feel more confident and helps me see more outcomes of convective setups. I am saddened by the death and destruction in the communities impacted, but hopefully seeing unexpected outcomes will help us advance our technology to help more people in the future.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Absolutely; hopefully, this is a great learning experience for forecasters everywhere.

[@user-zm4cb1ul4u]

I think they do an incredible job. When I was a kid , we wouldn’t have known until the sky turned green. Nowadays, thanks to the knowledge we’ve been given, I checked the SPC outlook, kept an eye on a radar app and live streaming and watched it happen in real time. No surprises. Sadly, tragedies will still happen, but this would have been a lot worse back in the day.

[@NorthMsWx]

It is absolutely astounding that you’ve taken the time to like or reply to every single comment and applied meaningful discussion to each, no matter the temper. Major props to your professionalism and over all love for weather dialogue. I could hear the passion and subdued rage in the beginning monologue. Keep being awesome Trey, hopefully we can meet up one day in the plains and you can show me a few things. Mad I missed you at Alta vista.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you for that…I think replying to comments are a huge part of operating a good channel. Folks take the time to watch and comment, so I think it’s only right to reply. For sure, hope to see you out there this year…just look for the ETT tour vans!

[@emilyyoung1834]

I always get excited when I see a forecast or breakdown and was hoping there'd be one today! Thanks so much for teaching us!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Couldn't pass up a breakdown on such a unique event!

[@DeadlyChinchilla]

I live quite close to Winchester Indiana, the first line of storms that came through was very neat and straightforward. It came, it passed. We were ready for the second line, but it was so *messy*. Had a huge funnel float over our local prison. It didn't touch down, but I could *hear* strange sounds... I think we got very lucky. Winchester, not so lucky. Nobody thought these storms were going to be huge, but everyone I know was jumping for their shelter space. Only took about 20 minutes to go from calm to total chaos. Very scary.

[@FreedomTooBe]

Thank you so much for this info. Makes a perfect jump point to dive back into those advanced topics spotter webinars.

[@flip1523]

This is why I love your videos, I'm slowly understanding more and more about the meteorology end of things because you explain things in a very concise and clear way. You have single-handedly taught me how to read a hodograph.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That's awesome to hear; thank you so much!

[@debsmith7025]

You just have to learn for yourself like I did. I have been a weather freak since childhood and had dreams of becoming a meteorologist however I'm not good at math. I learned a lot from watching the weather Channel and tornado videos. I live in Michigan and made the determination Central Eastern Indiana and West Central Ohio were very favorable for tornadoes. We drove to Indiana and ran right into it in the Muncie area. Several other stormchasers from Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Illinois were on that storm. Sometimes you have to take responsibility for yourself instead of relying on government agencies. I've seen weather do some freaky things so it's best to be prepared

[@Rafutah]

I do like the footage you included this time!

[@calemccallum9736]

No formal meteorology training but I feel like I'm auditing a graduate level course watching this channel. Pretty cool. Biomed lab nerd here branching out into weather weenie territory.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@kozytime3232]

Meteorologist here, long time fan. I much prefer to chase the storms not the other way around. The licking county EF1 came within 1km of my place. Really highlights how different an event is at night and when it’s your house. Something I’ll always keep in mind for the future. Thankfully most of my neighborhoods ok with some farms and chapels damaged. Really feeling for Indian Lake country though.

[@FreedomTooBe]

Really grateful for this info. Thank you.

[@timtravels116]

Lots of Friday morning quarterbacking. People should read “Man In The Arena.” Like I used to tell my folks in the military “if this shit was easy, everyone would be doing it.”

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Absolutely!

[@joemccarthy114]

Forecast and risk level were appropriate. Early afternoon convection and cloud cover were mitigating factors until about 5-6pm, very difficult to make a definitive determination. Once storms did develop, a watch and not one but two meso discussions were issued regarding the tornado threat. Warnings were timely, accurate and gave plenty of time to shelter. Would an enhanced risk have saved any lives? Probably not. It was a hit or miss event, it hit, and when it did the spc was forthcoming with appropriate guidance.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I agree; well said

[@ematilled]

I was ready to do some radar watching from afar and listen to some thunder yesterday, but what a surprise that it came to my own backyard! A very exciting night meteorologically, as Ohio isn’t often the focus of these big outbreaks, but the casualties and damage is very unfortunate. If I remember correctly, the Dayton-Riverside EF4 was also a (relatively) low risk day for us - you are absolutely right that slight risks are not to be underestimated. Thanks for the quick upload and excellent analysis, I was excited to see your thoughts about this system.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yes, the Dayton event started out with tornado probs barely extending into OH, but that shifted as the day went on.

[@johng.7560]

Your information is so well done, came across a well known chasers description (RT) of the event and it was amateur to say the least. Kept saying he almost went to Ohio, instead of Arkansas. You are a true professional and the quality of your presentation is very much appreciated.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much! I really appreciate that

[@TheCosmicGuy0111]

Great video as always!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thanks so much!

[@Connie.T.]

Here just south of Indy, the marginally severe winds in the noon squall were actually more damaging than the mostly bust evening storms, so it was harrowing to watch each anemic hail dumper in the line suddenly beef up its meso as they trained east past Muncie. This is why you ALWAYS prepare, even if the risk is conditional - those conditions could be met with little warning!

[@arrowguy173]

3:25 I’ve seen many tornadic events within yellow (sight) risk. I saw the same outlook 10am EST and to me SPC already did it’s job. As a skywarn spotter I totally back what you’ve said here.

[@peachxtaehyung]

I wasnt expecting what happened at all. I knew some tornadoes were possible but wow!

[@lordaizen6086]

Yeah I was almost certain that corridor of southern Illinois and eastern Missouri would see a tornado. A lot of supercells started to pop off in that area, but I think they merged quickly so luckily nothing bad happened.

[@Latrodectus_vv_]

This was an excellent video! Well done discussion.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@bradleymckinney6825]

We had a good squall line in Jasper Co, IN, but nothing else after 10:30 a.m. local time.

[@zachsteiner]

Wow you got this done fast. Very impressive event, just kind of frustrating I traveled to Mena, AR and could’ve just stayed home in DFW and seen some action lol. I feel really bad for the folks that got impacted, especially in Ohio.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Yeah, I had a feeling the ENH down here was going to be a dud from a chasing perspective. Just no low-level shear to work with.

[@zachsteiner]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Same, I knew it was a long shot but guess I was hoping I’d get lucky, some model soundings showed it right on the margin of maybe being able to get it done, especially with such strong low level instability in certain areas. There was a fair amount of surface vorticity too but in all reality I was probably just in denial since it was my first “real” chase with an experienced partner and I really wanted to see even a funnel cloud. Oh well, whole season is ahead of me.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Exactly, there'll be plenty more (better) events right around the corner.@@zachsteiner

[@s1kkris40]

You guys were in my neck of the woods Yesterday (St. Louis). I was debating on dropping south more towards the boundary but decided to chase that earlier discrete cell to the north around O’Fallon. Looked very promising at first when I got my eyes on the base. Just didn’t have the shear to work with. Nice breakdown as always man keep grinding!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I had some friends on those storms near STL; they just couldn't quite get it done, but they looked pretty nasty!

[@manda60]

The SPC did a wonderful job. I don't think most folks understand the literally millions of data points their systems need to analyze to produce these outlooks. I remember what severe weather forecasts (and warnings) were like in the 80s and 90s. The modern system is frankly miraculous.

[@R4ND0MCR4P123R4ND0MN3SS]

I was watching a livestream of this event as it unfolded. It was absolutely wild having so many tornado warnings popping up constantly. Up to 6-7 at a time is insane in just a matter of minutes.

[@joseph-frankbrocchus6575]

Nice video / I am glad that you said what you did about everyone needing to be prepared regardless / when I was growing up and any kind of watch was issued, they always said those in or “near” the affected area need to be ready / I’m glad it just rained in Tulsa

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Absolutely; severe weather doesn't always stay confined to the risk contour lines, so those "in and near" need to be on alert.

[@alanamccool7409]

Thank you for doing this! After the tornadoes that went through in late February (waking me up unexpected at 4 am with sirens) I was paying a lot closer attention and I am glad I did not ignore the "lower risk" in Ohio.

[@FeRu1906]

Hey Trey...Peter here😀...Great analysys as always, I was witing for your discussion/case study about this event. Yesterday when all supercells quickly get stonger and started producing tornadoes I thought that maybe atmosphere in Ohio recover very quick after first storms wave and CAPE was way higher than models predicted and /or low level jet was stronger that increase effective shear dramaticly so maybe I wasn't that wrong😅... Anyway this was very suprising to see that so many Supercells started rotating and producing strong tornadoes in short period of time.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! The destabilization was definitely rapid after the morning wave, which made it more likely storms were going to form. The more favorable low-level shear environment only came together shortly before the event, so it still was difficult to pinpoint the intensity of those storms until right before.

[@FeRu1906]

@@ConvectiveChronicles Atmosphere is very dynamic and complex and This is the reason that we can't predict in 100% weather in next 24h in micro or macro scale....and even with better technology this never could be possible because it's too many variables that change very quickly and sometimes one small thing can change everything like butterfly effect. This is something that people must understand and don't critique SPC or any other National weather center in the world. But we live in times were people critique everything - don't matterif it's good or bad, they always find reason to complain.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Well said! @@FeRu1906

[@realeaxx4491]

I know it's hard to forecast situations like this, but the SPC highlighted the 10% SIGTOR area but in that area little to no tornadoes occurred. Although Ohio was in some sort of severe weather risk, it didn't necessarily say in the discussion that strong tornadoes were a possibility. But like you said, one slight change in the atmosphere can have a significant impact. The NWS Cleveland I do believe issued a PDS TOR 5-15 minutes before the tornado actually did any damage so that's good. The NWS is not magic, it will never be perfect. Thanks for everything that you do for us!

[@TheDethsight]

i agree with you on the whole "be prepared no matter what risk of storms you're in" issue. BUT, the general public doesn't obsessively monitor all the info that the SPC or local NWS office passes along. You are also correct that it is not the SPC or local NWS office's job to warn the individual people. however, stronger wording when they started to get a clearer picture of what was transpiring could have made the people that do watch this stuff like a hawk (like me) spread the word a bit more. yes, i realize not everyone can get on their rooftops and shout out "be prepared for this evening! chance of tornadoes!" mostly because the general public doesn't care or doesn't believe a tornado can hit them (usually, in my area, i get the line of "oh well the native american's blessed this area so we are immune" or "tornadoes can't happen on hills or in/around a river or creek".) and no matter how many times i refute their claims, they still believe what they want.

[@tonyajones9159]

Thank You

[@spirevr8907]

I got the chance to watch the development and movement of the Frisco,TX cell. It past just north of us and I got to watch the rotation of the storm and beautiful lightening displays.

[@ResidentEvilWiz]

These people blaming the spc can only blame themselves for not paying attention. I take any severe weather risk seriously regardless if it’s marginal or slight because of events like this

[@peggywillenberg]

I've seen quite a few tornadoes in a 2% risk. Thanks for your support of SPC.

[@LoganBurress]

Couldn't agree more with your comments regarding the SPC. The MDs, watches, and context (language used, environment in place) did the job, in my opinion. It's on the people in the given area to pay attention.

[@datoofgaming9370]

It really sucks monitoring these events in the UK, as these events that happen around the late afternoon in the US happen around 1-2AM over here. Last night I went to bed around midnight (18:00 in CST, thinking the majority of the event was over, however it had only just begun.

[@ks86z]

thanks much

[@brandonjvl1987]

Hey trey, quick question when looking at the Nam sounding north of the dayton area at 7pm the wind profile doesnt look impressive and the temp/dew point is quite low. However, in the potential hazard type box it says "PDS TORNADO"... Why is that? I have noticed many times while looking at these soundings that the hazard type is different than what is anticipated... I have noticed this many times over the years. As always, really appreciate your time, knowledge, and videos! Thankyou....

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! The Possible Hazard Types are based on an algorithm that involves a bunch of different thresholds of values of different parameters (shear, moisture, instability, etc.). It doesn't take into account the nuances of the environment as a whole, so the Possible Hazard Type box should be used with caution. In that NAM sounding I showed in the video, there was good instability and strong low-level shear values, but closer inspection shows that the actual wind profile as a whole was not quite as favorable for significant tornadoes (as discussed in the video, unidirectional low-level winds). Here's some documentation on the sounding plotting software; scroll down to the bottom to get some info about the Possible Hazard Type box and how it works: sharppy.github.io/SHARPpy/interpreting_gui.html

[@brandonjvl1987]

Thanks trey! On the lookout for the next video. Take care!!

[@user-mt3rg2yi5g]

We were under a warning here in Tennessee at 4:30 am but very lucky it never touched down completely. Had a tight rotation. Channel 4 out of Nashville caught ours.

[@1127fctwosw]

you look at the SPC's Convection Outlook Verification for this event and they pretty much nailed it...Mesoscale Discussions were spot on also. when big weather is expected...expect the unexpected. or you might have a bad day.

[@daryl0063]

I have witnessed an uptick around my area in Oklahoma where people will blame meteorologists for anything. If a tornado occurs, they will blame them for not giving enough warning but they don't really pay attention to the warnings. They say they don't listen to the warnings anymore because meteorologists don't know what they are talking about. Well, if you don't pay attention to the warnings how is that the meteorologists fault? How do you even know what is in the forecast when there are many who share the forecast. People are getting really weird.

[@Max-jp5dm]

Thank you for the video. The last week of March is looking kind of active as of right now.

[@MightyMuffins]

I may be 2 weeks late on this....though I had chances I finally got around to this tab on my computer from last night. I swear this was incredible how much this over-performed. Over 25 tornadoes now from this event and that's truly remarkable and as you said it was a surprise but there was some heads up. I was surprised still the SPC backed out of the bi-modal issuance but I guess they had to go by what the models were hinting. I know i was sleeping off an overnight shift thru most of this so I completely missed the squall line devolving leaving the lone cell at the tail end there that looked so good and tapped into the prime environment and that was in a perfect spot to tornado produce. I was wondering that storm produce the tornado that went across the river like that. The moisture rebound and clearing really was a surprise in a sense but once that happened it was game on for this event and the low in the IN/OH areas really did help a lot. Remarkable how many EF3s showed up from this event and one EF4. All the tornado producing storms were so robust on velocities and the radar presentations were so wound up. The Wilmington, OH sound is so sick with how deep that moist went up to 700mb and every single parameter on the SRHs, hodograph, and MLCAPE was more than enough to show how primed up the environment was compared to the Southern mode in the end. This really was a nutty event and this probably was the #1 event so far for 2024 as of now but we have a long way to go.

[@JJ0880]

Where did you get the radar loop from around 25:00?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I got that from the College of DuPage site

[@jimmyseaver3647]

Even though I wasn't hit, I knew people who were in the line of fire of that tornado-warned supercell that broke up just short of CAK. Absolutely tense evening that had my youngest sister freaked out because of all of our phones, Alexa, and my weather radio going off. Really glad those storms were being undercut by the time they began rolling over me.

[@corcor1994]

The February Wisconsin tornado and the Wapakoneta tornado both occurred from two supercells merging. It was also notable how many storms in this Ohio outbreak had velocity couplets and tornado warnings before sundown, but none produced actual tornados until surface-based inversions promoted cyclogenesis after sunset. Too many factors to consider when predicting anything as complex as weather.

[@aaronelliott3019]

This is just my input as a person who lives in east central Indiana. (Muncie) We've had other previous events that appeared to be far more intense than what was predicted in this event, and nothing has happened in the past. I think that's what puts people more into the mindset of "This isn't going to be but a typical springtime storm...". There are times the news and other outlets hype up previous storms before they happen, and to the average person who doesn't go elsewhere for weather or look at charts, they tend to be more unprepared when things do get bad. Bottom line is, there was an elevated risk of tornadoes and hail, and a pretty good risk of wind. So regardless of the matter the chance of severe weather was there before it happened. I work outside, and I can say one thing, throughout the day the sun was out, and the humidity was increasing. We had a brief moment of a thunderstorm for about an hour, but then the sun came back out. That told me right there things were going to take a turn for the worse, because the rain added to the humidity. The fuel was there, and once the supercells started showing up it was basically a powder keg. Do I feel like the SPC underestimated the severity of our region? Not necessarily. They side noted tornadoes likely when they issued our tornado watch too. People need to not rely so much on biased news outlets that over/ under hype up storm systems the day of and look into websites like Pivotal, or look in to channels on KZbin like yours.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Great points!

[@stormcrow1685]

Very good video, I appreciated both the breakdown and how you dispelled the myth that the NWS did not sufficiently prepare the public. Not only were there very accurately and timely placed severe and tornado watches, the graphics posted by the NWS offices on social media also adequately communicated the potential for these hazards. I think at least part of it is that the last severe weather threat in Indiana (at least near Lafayette) was a massive bust, which can definitely leave people off guard. Part of the reason I am going to study meteorology in college is to learn more about the inner workings of models, and hopefully research ways of improving them for events like these, especially in third-world countries where there is a huge disparity in forecast accuracy.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! That’s awesome; best of luck in your studies ahead!

[@jimmorelli2478]

Perhaps there needs to be some sort of public education regarding SPC 'risk' zones. Theoretically, it is true all hazards are on the table for the regions warned for severe potential -- but I think it's completely understandable why some feel misled. 'Slight Risk' implies limited need to worry... especially when you see that SPC has, at the same time, possibly honed in on an area of 'Enhanced Risk' far away from where you live. Plus, forecasters seem to have it down so thoroughly that, as storm events approach, SPC sometimes even identifies localized areas of especially high (hatched) risk. The bottom line, both frustrating and fascinating, is that humanity's forecasting advances are no match for the capriciousness of our weather. The public, in general, may not be aware of that.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That's a fair point; I do think we need continued education on what the risk categories/probs mean. There has been lots of debate for awhile now over the names of the categories and if they should be changed (i.e. the fact that "Slight Risk" may downplay the actual risk itself).

[@aidendavis763]

​@@ConvectiveChronicles I feel like the worst named category is "Moderate". The name makes the risk sound medium, and suggests an average severe weather event when the actual meaning is more along the lines of widespread severe weather is expected, some significant.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

@@aidendavis763 Yeah, there's been some contention about the names for awhile now.

[@Pila426]

Absolutely. I'm not blaming the SPC for their assessment on March 24th. I do think that the language they use does not clearly communicate the severity of risk to the general public. Terms such as slight, moderate, and marginal do not convey to the general public that they need to be on the watch for severe weather and be ready to go get to shelter.

[@Pila426]

*March 14th.

[@Walk_-ez5yk]

Good stuff Trey

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@Walk_-ez5yk]

@@ConvectiveChronicles 👊🌩🌪⛈

[@sircuffington]

The whole thing was a series of perfect events. I've never seen so many storms get so lucky with positioning, timing, and merging in one night.

[@AllanEvansOfficial]

I think this just goes to how much we still don’t know about long term tornado forecasting especially when it comes to mesoscale/microscale features and trying to predict how they will influence tornadogenesis. Something that makes me wonder if it will ever be possible. That along with ironing out model discrepancies. The spc has been right more times than not! I still think it’s a miracle that we can predict rain with almost certainty days ahead of time.

[@jeffreyhueseman7061]

The tornado through Madison Indiana was the last cell in the line, then the backside was very sunny, pushing more energy back into the system at least where I was located, approximately 1 hour north of Madison.

[@MRebeca]

Super interesting video, thank you! I live in Hicksville, OH and I felt something was off the entire day. I felt like it would wind up worse than anticipated it happens. Never trust a warm front! Also a severe risk is a severe risk. It's terrible that people died. SPC wasn't at fault. We have a responsibility to monitor weather. It was blasted everywhere on the news and online here for about 2 days before. I don't think anyone could not know severe weather was possible.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! I completely agree

[@EvilApple567]

If there's one piece of constructive criticism to take seriously from this, it would probably be the usage of lower probability hatched areas. Even from the early kinematic models it was apparent that if the conditional thermodynamic and storm mode threats materialized there was at least a decent chance of significant activity from it, but was more apparent/convincing by at least the 20z outlook. While often is the case, it isn't always accurate that probability and intensity are correspondingly related and it can be valuable to relay that transparently, or at least through something more defined and simpler that people can digest who can't or don't want to parse through the specifics of the often long and jargon rich outlook details.

[@cook1ezz]

This! I've said this before in comment sections, but the addition of a 5% hatched risk area would do wonders for informing people at a glance. The SPC tends to mention "highly conditional strong tornado potential" in their forecast discussions, but there really is no way to show "highly conditional strong tornado potential" with current SPC graphics. In this case, anything that can make SPC graphics more in-depth without significantly adding to their complexity is an amazing addition imo. Lower risk hatched categories seem like a natural evolution to the graphics. Hopefully the SPC takes adding something like this into consideration. There have been several situations in the last couple of years where one would've made a lot of sense. Funnily enough, those events tend to lead the SPC to be judged for getting the forecasts wrong. When in reality, they (usually) mentioned the potential in their forecast discussions, but couldn't display it on their graphics.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Great points! This was a nice case for the lower-end hatched risk area.

[@railfanningpoints2.045]

The SPC has to dumb it down for people. If they just change it "yeet levels" maybe people will take severe weather preparedness more seriously.

[@jimmyseaver3647]

A general public awareness campaign and perhaps a secondary "in plain English" version of their normal convective outlooks might actually help.

[@zackjakosh]

This will certainly be added to the list of historic Ohio tornado outbreaks. The storm to chase in Ohio yesterday was definitely the Celina/Wapakoneta storm. It's also interesting to see how modeled vs actual data varied with this event when looked at in this analysis.

[@Hayden_Young]

NEW VIDEO RAHHHH

[@kevindavis296]

This reminded me of the memorial day tornado outbreak 2019. That was unexpected a few hours that it happened and Ohio was warned that a tornado outbreak is expected in western Ohio hours before it happened and between 10pm and 1am from Dayton especially and to the Hocking Hills had tornado warnings. So, now we need to especially to ALWAYS be prepared for such when a low risk of severe weather will be issued, now that the atmosphere is unpredictable suddenly or weather metrogists need to be actually sure that a tornado outbreak will happen at the actually regions in states or are they predictors??? It's so scary. And yeah a lot of people are blaming weather metrogists for not being sure and not predicting a tornado outbreak.

[@wutzittoya]

Hey Trey! I dont think ive seen one on your channel, but can you discuss the 2010 Yazoo City Tornado?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It’s on the list!

[@valerieschoettmer9736]

The tornados touched down just east/southeast of us. The sirens went off for about an hour and we ignored them. Maybe next time we shouldn't? Haha.

[@skizzle33]

It's not up the NWS or SPC to parent the public. If you're in a severe weather risk, take precautions and prepare for the worst. And if it doesn't come to fruition, at least you were prepared. Better than the latter

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Absolutely; well said

[@jacobpunch9178]

Could another factor possibly be that your RM storm motion was a tad to the SE, which maximized your ESRH (I would assume) a little more and presumably tracked your cells more parallel to your axis of instability, instead of north of the differential heating zone and into stable air?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

So the maximization of SRH relative to the Bunkers RM storm motion is typically reserved for those times when the storms track much farther to the right than normal. In this case, it looks like the storms followed the Bunkers RM storm motion pretty well, which was a bit to the SE. If they had a more SE or SSE component, then that might be pretty critical. But in terms of the orientation of that differential heating zone and the more unstable air south of it, the SE storm motion certainly helped the storms maximize their time in the better environment.

[@wei_mitchell]

I got caught in the worst rain and lightning while driving through downtown Columbus, yet I feel very lucky because I was not weather aware at all that day. Any slight difference in the variables could’ve sent a significant tornado right where I was while I would’ve not been fully prepared. My thoughts and prayers go out to those affected by the tornadoes.

[@swalchliwx]

As always, great discussion Trey! I do agree that the NWS/SPC isn't really at fault for the events that happened, but I do believe that their messages don't get heard as well as they should be. In my opinion, local and national media need to be better about broadcasting the NWS outlooks and associated discussions and try to break them down for the average viewer. Days like Thursday, where there was relatively high uncertainty for multiple forecast areas, is the perfect example of why.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Yeah, local/national media does have a part in this, and there probably needs to be some better communication from them that low-end risks are still risks that should be taken seriously.

[@kayeas716]

Great observations with the differential heating boundary. Obviously not in intensity, but it reminds me a bit of 4/27/2011 with that morning squall setting up that differential heating boundary and the afternoon supercells just south, or on the boundary, producing upper echelon tors. It’s easy with hindsight to say what the SPC should’ve done, but man, people need to understand the true conditionality of this. Yesterday was the worst-case scenario, which was *higher* than the anticipated ceiling (IMO). It’s nobody’s fault what happened yesterday.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I agree; great points

[@alexharshman7025]

When I got up at 9am I pulled up a radar, and the line I seen was almost identical to what the KZbin guys showed the previous two days, so at my 5pm 1st break when I looked again I wasn’t surprised. 27 of my 34 years I spent in Randolph county, many bad storms over the years, lots of close calls, but never a tornado. They always spawned the county over where I live now. From Winchester to union city (half Indiana half Ohio, state line splits the city) is like 10-12 miles, and about the same to Greenville with a lot of farmland in between, so I’m thinking about how long that one was actually on the ground

[@rhondaeverett8284]

25 miles on ground

[@rhondaeverett8284]

I lived between Winchester and Union City in 1961 when tornado hit our house. I was 4 and still remember seein a giant tree yanked up and poof gone, my brother grabbed me from window to run to cellar!

[@rhondaeverett8284]

We were the Hale family, lived in a big 2 story white house (old school house i think my mom said). Moved to Vegas soon after.

[@krzy1867]

What a day of severe weather it was throughout all fronts, near record hail reports with a significant amounts of damaging wind and tornadoes to boot And honestly, when looking at the setup, it pretty much just is a classic tornado environment for the Ohio valley on all fronts, when the moisture is already in place further west and there’s a strong , low amplitude jet streak either ski jumping ahead of the main trough to the west or just riding the top of the ridge impinging on Ohio valley, I feel like most times it’s bound to setup as a significant event (3/2/12, 5/27/19, 4/11/65, etc) I totally agree that the SPC is 100% not at fault for any of the events that occurred though by early afternoon it was quite evident the pattern occurring on most modeling, but by that point it was just simply too late to update the forecast My thoughts and prayers go out to everyone impacted from this significant event And as always, amazing analysis of this remarkable event

[@krzy1867]

Something else too Ohio and Arkansas were the only 2 areas with truly saturated low levels and high 0-3KM CAPE, other areas where record hail occurred mostly only had robust CAPE above the freezing layer and somewhat drier of low levels

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Great points

[@Can_I_Get_A_Hoiyaa123]

This tornado outbreak proves that a small tornado outbreak can still be devastating for some communities

[@Priest8776]

That tornado absolutely decimated Indian lake and caused pretty big controversy regarding Honda and their lack of empathy for the community that runs their business

[@garyrusso8031]

I was watching a cell going past me on route 18 and lost sight once it hit the tree line but I'm sure there was a tornado or breaf on the ground but I wasn't sure ex storm chaser was telling me everything to look for including the inflow exact location was between Marion and Fort Wayne Indiana didn't see a path though which was weird

[@dragnflei]

Hindsight really is 20/20. For the folks bashing the forecasters, a more helpful response would have been, yikes, what just happened and why? Kind of like what you’re doing here- thanks, as always, for the debrief, Trey.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you! Completely agree.

[@myria9644]

the spc did as good as they could given the data we had, any nonzero chance should have you at least have a plan on your mind, we do not yet know the full ins and outs of tornadoes or supercells which is a good reason to just trust the warning everytime

[@TheOfficialRandomGuy]

Similar event happened in Iowa a couple years ago.

[@wxgabe]

Great video, Trey! Agree that the differential heating boundary was important to what happened. Could this have been the source of the backed flow? Less heating on the east side would imply less mixing, which would imply less momentum from southwesterly low-level jet coming to the surface. And that could keep the flow backed. In any case, I think that the over-performance of moisture advection was pivotal. Good stuff!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you, Gabe! That's a great point; would not be surprised if that was a pivotal factor in keeping the flow backed.

[@tonyagary5911]

I live in Toledo Ohio we was not expecting anything strong now I listened to our weather metrologist I'm so confused of why we were later issue a tornado watch late in the evening about 6 out of the blue..when our southern counties were at a greater risk than us please help me to understand that ?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

The air mass was more favorable for tornadic activity south of Toledo.

[@thefloppydisc9443]

I will remember this day as the 2024 Pi Day Tornado Outbreak

[@JAutry]

What got my attention that day being from Indiana was Brandon Copic's tweet about the 12z HREF choosing violence and then the storm that hit around noon basically confirmed to me that it was going to be a shitty night at work.

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

That’s interesting; at least a couple of the HREF members really didn’t show much at all that morning. The HRRR was definitely the most aggressive of the bunch

[@scott729]

Human nature for people to think "it won't happen here.... or, not to me". For some reason I felt different about it this go around and had the family in the basement early. We live just South of Bradford/ Covington, OH so I am glad I did. Pretty sure I could see the wall cloud from my back porch when it went through and it was captivating. It was a nasty storm with dangerous lightening and obviously the tornadic activity. The cloud motion was incredible from my vantage point as well. Your videos are very helpful. I have a fascination with tornados and their genesis, so I appreciate your attempt to help us better understand how they come to be and the science behind it all. The long way of saying thanks!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you so much!

[@RG5Gamin]

To say the least, i wasnt expecting this until i saw sone soundings in the area, the Lakeview tornado was rated EF3, do you think a upgrade is possible for that, if so yk they would have to get a engineer look at the damage and stuff. But EF4 or EF3, still significant damage was done and lifes were lost (4 in Winchester, 3 for Lake Indian). Also, Connor Croff had a pretty large tornado after the Winchester Tornado lifted, have you heard anything about it.Timestamp was 6:48:55 on his stream

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

I haven't really looked into the damage that much, but I trust the NWS in their ratings.

[@RG5Gamin]

@@ConvectiveChronicles agreed

[@micheledianemiller4589]

i knew when the sun came out and no clouds the louisville ky area was in trouble for severe weather

[@somedudewhodraws9377]

I remember this as I was watching this system as it got stronger over the days leading up to it and my heart was in panic mode thinking oh god is my homestate of TN gonna get another tornado outbreak?! Thankfully the air was more stable in middle TN where I live as I live in Hendersonville. Yep that same place that sideswiped by that EF2 in December of last year. Thank god again our air mass was more stable and they weakened alot before hitting middle TN. All we had was mainly just a strong thunderstorm but it didnt reach Severe Criteria and was producing winds at like 50 MPH. It was stronger before it crossed the TN border around memphis but it started hitting that stable air and was slowly dying over time.

[@chacha1_efs]

Live in Powell Ohio, the wapokoneta supercell missed us 10 miles to the north (Powell is a suburb of Columbus northwest of it) in my school district a school has holes in its roof, flooding and it’s football scoreboard is gone. Not like leaned over anything it’s just bear

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Dang, that's crazy

[@kmagnussen1052]

Can you do full screen without your desktop. Zoom in on maps to show what you are talking about; red arrows?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

It's just easier for me to go from tab to tab with the full windows open for these kinds of videos. On my case study videos, when I have more time to construct the video, I do more zoomed in views with graphics like arrows.