Forecast Discussion - October 31, 2024 - Multi-Day Severe Potential to Begin November

[@eddie5z518]

I have my wife's boyfriend to thank for him being so kind as to allow me to watch this video. It is the highlight of my day!

[@zachsteiner]

Oh wow, that’s really nice of him. Hope he’s letting you stay up late for Halloween!

[@supertornadogun1690]

wait what

[@KevinMcAdams26]

You're a lucky guy.

[@constance5894]

Due to my busy fall and not so busy weather, it's been a good while since I've listened to your analysis-- and wow Trey you are GOOD! The depth and clarity are unmatched in weather forecast.

[@AnAngryMarauder]

Talk to me weather-daddy.

[@ok_marcussharcus]

Perfect timing. Had a plan to leave OK for NW NM on Saturday then UT on Sunday for a photography trip.....aaaaand that just got delayed, lol. Looks like storm chasing is getting inked in on the calendar. Great info as always, Trey!

[@LeviW133]

Great video Trey 👍

[@verznex_yt1808]

Thanks trey, Appreciate these forecast discussions a lot, stay safe!

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@JosephYostStorms]

I was just about to start my homework assignment and this popped up. I guess school can wait 😫

[@tajstewby1017]

a trey video is the easiest way to make my day

[@MightyMuffins]

This will be good.....and wild troughing even after Monday too looks SOOOO impressive. This stretch won't be a dud like yesterday was. I think if the models hold right for what the GFS especially wants to do in the middle of the week.....hot damn....is it May again? Cause this is like a May pattern we are seeing. That Sun/Mon look like what you see for good outbreaks cause that is a much better SFC low and location. Not buying the cool solution on the EURO.....we have seen what these SFC lows can do and surge up the warm temps and dew points too. Also I wouldn't worry about the backed flow for Sunday in the mid-levels....those lower level wind profiles are pretty solid and we seen that robust storms can overcome that. Monday is the best of the 3 days for me. Yes the instability on the weekend and Monday set ups looking iffy here and there but man you can't go wrong with a fat warm sector and a mega trough like that is showing. The model agreement for the most part on this hinting to a good negative trough or even neutral will be good. Gonna be a epic chase week likely in the plains and Midwest probably for an entire week from Saturday to Saturday. That middle of the week trough looks crazy. Let's see how that plays out. Not be surprised to see the SPC start pushing 15%s out after Wednesday by Sunday.

[@bananahammers3490]

Oklahoma needed rain, but i don't think we needed this much!

[@kevinjoyce285]

Given yesterday overperformed on instability, Monday will most likely do that too but there's a lot of uncertainty on the mode and so many things we still have to go through with that setup. Lows setting up around Central and Northern US will drive this active Great Plains era that doesn't appear to stop, although a brief break will probably occur in between. Really interested and i wish we see more of this early 2024ish type scenarios where tornado threats in the TX/LA area constantly underperformed. We seen the bad side in Spring and unfortunately i think there's still chances for that bad side to come out on the table but too far to know

[@tor-WX]

i’m in very SE kansas, i just wanna be able to record some of this stuff

[@Sante1035]

Came back to say we did not become oklahomeless last night 🙌

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thankfully it was a dud tornado-wise!

[@Sciencetor728]

Trey again ❤… I need to invest in him

[@SevereStormFilmer]

Do you recommend me watching this system in Ohio?

[@amari9912]

:D i love your videos

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

Thank you!

[@aibhilin1211]

Oh no, just began watching. I'm driving from Springfield to Lebanon late Monday night. Should I postpone?

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

You should be ok, but I'd keep an eye out just in case. Also, roads might be slick from the rain.

[@ihatechiyo]

Get your halloween candy ready, this is probably gonna be a long next few days of bad weather...

[@BigBoyHungryBoy]

Me when Trey says my town: :) Me when Trey says my town: :(

[@peachxtaehyung]

23:02 sorry but what does that mean? "Anti sedence (spelling?) and how do you know when you have that on a sounding? I have never heard of that lol

[@ConvectiveChronicles]

The word I’m using is “antecedent,” which just means something that occurs before the thing in question. So antecedent rain/storms just refers to morning rain/storms before the main severe threat in the afternoon

[@peachxtaehyung]

@ConvectiveChronicles ahhh ok gotcha lol I couldn't hear well what you were saying there so I was confused. Thank you for explaining!

[@AllanEvansOfficial]

First comment!

[@AllanEvansOfficial]

So glad to see the forecast discussions coming back