Deep Dive 22/10/2024 - Any more deep lows to come? - Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond.
Storm Ashley hit the UK at the weekend having explosively deepened in just a day or so. How did it deepen so quickly? And are there any more deep lows on the way?
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecasts and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.

[@alecedwards5655]

You are an excellent presenter/teacher, Aidan. Great clarity

[@catgladwell5684]

he's also quite funny. I love the deep dive - it's a very enjoyable half hour every Tuesday.

[@alayneperrott9693]

Great presentation, Aidan. Love all your new graphics.

[@darraghgregory1269]

Thanks Aidan , My favourite time of the week , storm Ashley was bad here in north western Ireland gusts of 80mph (130km/h) keep these coming I'd be devastating if you stopped doing the deep dives , love from Ireland 🇮🇪

[@paulmarkman5247]

Fabulous teaching Aidan - more of this please!

[@benjamintoole]

I really appreciate these Aidan! As a mountain guide in Scotland it always helps me gather the bearings and understand a little more of what's going on :)

[@Mat1234A]

Another excellent deep dive thank you Aidan! Loved your visual explanation of how low pressures can intensify like Ashley did. I’m expanding my knowledge about our weather with each deep dive and the visuals are really helpful in breaking things down so thank you! Can’t wait for the next one and thank you to everyone at the Met Office for your hard work and effort.

[@SirHackaL0t.]

Waffle, waffle. Let’s get to the weather forecast. :)

[@rmk]

Thanks, great presentation as ever, but could do with less close-up shots, especially when Aiden is pointing at something out of the close-up camera frame. Another issue is the camera seems to over-expose the screen making it harder to see, but when switching to the direct feed it's clear - maybe the screen that Aiden is presenting can be adjusted to make the image the camera captures better without making it too bad for Aiden?

[@Mersty.]

Love these deep dives, the information that you present gives us viewers the tools to actually understand the intricacies of forecasting. Thank you.

[@J_3_P_O]

Excellent. Would be better without the camera angle change. Maybe it's just my preference but the side on in super irritating as I like to examine what is on the screen when you talk.

[@andrewshore262]

It’ll be interesting to see rainfall totals for the year in various locations come December, I feel as though we’ve endured more than usual amounts here in Hampshire. An excellent presentation with appropriate explanations, especially how that low pressure deepened dramatically over a couple of days, which was accurately predicted well done the Met Office 👍💪🇬🇧

[@Trevessa24]

Excellent as usual. A privilege to get this level of information sitting where I am. Many many thanks.

[@suewright1299]

An excellent Deep Dive Aidan! Thoroughly enjoyed it all, very informative and interesting for sure! I absolutely love all the DDs and 10 Day Trends, do please keep them coming for us all. I really love a foggy winters day, something magical about it. Can’t see me remembering the zooms at all. Very many thanks indeed Aidan, brilliant. Thanks also to the Met Office. Take very great care everyone

[@neilharrison7422]

Love both the deep dives and the ten day trends. Keep them going as they are spot on.

[@2711marcus]

Hi Aidan I've always had an interest in the weather so I'm loving these videos, learning so much 😊 Would it be possible to do a video on how conditions develop that brings the cold snowy weather to the UK and explain the block please. 😊

[@RobertKillington-t3k]

Thanks Aidan. Clear explanations. There were times when the camera changes obscured the screen when it was showing the four different images. That will no doubt improve as your colleagues operating the cameras get to grips with the technology. 😊

[@elizabethbarberis9058]

Loving the new graphics! A thought about the uk outline. As you've both now highlighted, literally, the unease with which we can sometimes see it, (I've always struggled and can't be the only one) can this be altered to a thicker black line, for example? ((...We Demand Purple! 😉💜))

[@JoeyBoswell89]

20:05 it may be a better drawing of the UK but because it's in yellow we can barely see it 😂 Love these deep dives. Keep them coming!

[@TheGunnarRoxen]

I'm enjoying understanding more about the weather.

[@Jablicek]

Some people complain that the weather wasn't predicted exactly as it occurred, meanwhile the progress made in modelling and the way they're used to make these predictions is just staggering. Being a meteorologist must be rather like being a dentist at times - people moaning at you rather than marvelling at how far we've come.

[@laurenceblackshaw3369]

@metoffice Look forward to this every Tuesday, great explanations again Aiden, your deep dives have got better over recent weeks I reckon! I still think the presenter interface should be left-aligned though so that you can stand on the left, this is so that you're not blocking the screen so much when scrolling through the animation from left to right, and more importantly as most of you are right-handed so standing to the left of the board makes more sense! I'd like a deep dive on high pressure and how that works in terms of how/why it keeps weather systems either at bay, or whether it can ever trap weather systems in one place and stop them moving through. I also find high-pressure seems to lead to more mist/fog in the mornings particularly, and mist/fog can take a while to clear, so what influences that, is it pressure again??? Thanks!

[@simonevans876]

Thanks as always Aidan and team, love these in-depth weather breakdowns 😃👍

[@Claymore5]

Great stuff as always Aidan - loved the explanation of how the differing models came about.

[@TheVillageIdiotUk]

Aiden, an excellent presentation and explanation. Simply brilliant. I’d often wondered why converging warm and cold fronts produced low pressure systems. I wish you’d been one of my lecturers when I was a lad. Thank you for your efforts developing these graphical tools - it’s worth the investment in terms of your time & budget. Thanks very much.

[@johnwelbourn3811]

Nothing wrong with your artwork Aidan. A great deep dive with a nice graphical explanation of cyclogenesis.

[@michaeloreilly657]

Thanks for explaining Occluded Fronts. Very clear.

[@dawntudge1635]

Love the deep dive and 10 day forecast ❤

[@rolty1]

Excellent work, not only a comprehensive explanation but made me smile as well!

[@elizabethmcpherson-lt9vh]

I am liking the separate maps of the UK showing separate weather conditions - much easier to understand. Where I live in Sussex we have our own micro climate - we seem to get more mist and fog than other villages nearby its incredible. We also get that with rain and snow! I hate the fog the most as I can get lost walking the dog very early - I nearly walked into an Exmoor pony the other day.

[@johnathonb45]

Thanks for the detailed forecast Aidan. I hope Mother Nature calms down soon 🙏🤞

[@themasqueradingcow91]

This is very reminiscent of my own teaching style. Super excited about something that i want to go into detail for, slightly off on a tangent and hopefully beings it back around!

[@thesydmc]

Well done , like the quad displays.

[@andrewlaming]

Thanks for this brilliant clear explanation

[@wildlifegardener-tracey6206]

It was a great explanation Aiden. I learn so much from these DD's they're really appreciated.

[@waynelowery7760]

Great informative video as always! 👌

[@shedlife1745]

All clear and useful information. I love the history and explanations of how you analyse the data, it helps us understand the system you use and in turn helps us understand the weather.

[@odetbeauvoisin]

Absolutely fascinating. Thank you Aidan.

[@Aikez]

Excellent, thank you for the lesson. Please keep it up. Love the deep dive and forecasts.

[@MericsMen-b1l]

we got 79 mph in ireland co cork during the stomr had no power for 2 days

[@alastairbanton959]

Great work Aiden. I wish you’d have been about when I did my ATPL met many years ago!

[@Fred-wy8zw]

Great new graphics. Just a suggestion - could you move all cursers and touch icons to one side so that you didn’t need to lean across the screen? Is that easy to do? Love the background theory and the fog clearance time is great!

[@alexalves4865]

I have been watching the deep dives regularly ever since they started, find them very interesting and informative! Some constructive criticism: New screen: more of the graphs have very low contrast or are bleached out by the studio lights. Camera angle: distracting, takes focus away from the screen and presenter keeps looking at the main/straight camera. Please keep the deep dives weekly and if possible improve the visuals for the audience. Thank you for your hard work!

[@supercell7]

Thank you, great video, keep up the excellent work! :)

[@dawntudge1635]

Would love to see a deep dive into how systems such as the Azores High and Icelandic Low affect our weather

[@Pixieworksstudio]

Thank you, Aidan. It was very enjoyable. I really love fog, too😊

[@elaineambrose7413]

The best thing to watch on here Deep dive and graphics are very interesting . Thanks Aidan

[@stephyadcock1233]

You did a great job Aiden. With the stratospheric polar vortex building in strength, would you be able to do a deep dive into how it forms and what type of waves (Kelvin and Rossby etc.) interact with it?

[@mollypenwhistle7918]

Well done Aiden, you have obviously had a fab time developing this new format, it’s great, as are your explanations. How did I get to 60 not knowing all this, I wish I’d know before, Thank you 😊

[@davewalters6246]

Excellent - really enjoyed the explanation on Archie and then the story of this week with the associated uncertainties at the end of it. Fingers crossed for a drier week next week; we seem to have had a record breaking 12 months since last October across much of the UK (and certainly here in the Midlands) and could do with a break. Interesting to compare what appears to be quite a windy run with 30 year averages - has it been unusually windy in 2024 or not - or were the last few years actually less windy than normal?

[@tomasmatulaitis9284]

Cool stuff as usual, I like the new comparisons of hottest/coldest spots (might be interesting to see the most wet/dry, windly/lull locations too?). Another point regarding wind speeds. Do you also register data from the Scottish mountains (top of Cairngorm, Ben Nevis etc.)? It would be really cool to see some of these violent stats after the storm passes. In relation to wind speed at the mountain tops, I recently noticed that your predictions for a specific mountain change every hour or so. On Friday at some point MetOffice mountain weather forecast was showing winds exceeding 150 mph for some Scottish mountains but then throughout Saturday the numbers gradually got more and more modest. At the same time, MWIS was very modest compared to MetOffice for the same tops and was forecasting "only" 60-70 mph winds. Do you retrospectively look at these (or other stats) and have any explanation on how/why forecasts differ so much? And like I said earlier, it would be super cool to see some actual stats from the mountain tops after the storm passed :)

[@johnadams6771]

Yes, there is an observation station at the top of Cairngorm. Observations from all the Met Office stations, climate stations and countless personal weather stations in near real-time can be found on the Met office's weather observations website. There's a link to it at the bottom of the Met Office website home page.

[@kevinjones4559]

A Deep Dive on the MJO and and how you use it in forecasting would be interesting

[@prabhakarv4193]

Very nice 👍

[@Kate-v9d]

Aidan, as usual, great interesting, detailed presentation, thank you very much, but you cut western Ireland out of some displays 😢😭🤣 Fantastic presentation as usual, love from Ireland

[@martinwatssman2284]

I love these deep dive podcasts. One question I'd like the answer to is why are Cumulo Nimbus marked on charts as Cb and not Cm?

[@MrSeaboots]

thank you.

[@dannysmith7245]

Could you please do a deep dive on the MJO, ENSO and any longer term predictions for the first part of winter?

[@andy5786]

Cheers Aiden class weather presenter graphics excellent love them thanks 👍

[@richarddelanet]

Love the history lesson and subsequent. Felt like I was watching _The Great Escape._ Lol.

[@WiltshireMan]

When I was at school in the 1960's and 1970's we had a real Blackboard and you could get Purple Chalk :)

[@prabhakarv4193]

Very nice. Thank you

[@andymunro1076]

Great presentation and very informative. One request, please STOP zooming into the video, very disconcerting.

[@babyjane87]

We were in the warning area for storm Ashley in the north east but it wasn’t even that bad. No bins blew over, no fences down and the garden stuff never really moved 🥴

[@Mykst]

Yeah a warning area just means a risk, not always a guarantee. Western areas had the brunt of it as we saw.

[@MalcolmGray-t2v]

Great presentation as always from Aidan. Very well explained, the UTC time that the fog lifts being associated with the month number in, but what happens in January, February etc... Does this mean that there could be days post Dec 31st where the fog never clears?

[@metoffice]

The rule of thumb is: count how many months you are from December and that's how many hours before midday UTC the fog will clear. So, in January and November it's 11 UTC. In October and February, it's 10 UTC. In May, it's 0700 UTC (6am local).

[@metoffice]

But there will be days - normally November, December, January - when the fog doesn't clear all day.

[@MsNorthernsoulboy]

i like the way you show several panes of weather now

[@paulbriley]

Hardly a surprise is Ashley. It's the effect of ex -hurricane Milton as it tracked across a very warm Atlantic Ocean.

[@leechater5254]

Fair playto you I'm the same except I throw it up the wall when it doesn't do what I want 😂

[@PhilipCroxall]

Fantastic deep dive. Great presentation, but let down by the poor camera work. No point showing the 4 images when the viewer can only see one.

[@robertcantor3294]

Great deep dive. However a bit confused ñow as i was under the impression that storm Ashley deepened rapidly due to its transfer to left exit cold side of the jet stream ?...Is the 'warm core' development of the low another way that lows can deepen then?...or is it a combination of both types of process??...appreciate any thoughts on this...thanks

[@metoffice]

It's both. The warm core is at the surface of the low which remains even when the low moves onto the cold side of the jet stream (or, specifically, the left exit). When we mention the cold side of the jet stream, the cold air is at the height of the jet stream so much higher than the warm centre of the low. That means, of course, there's an enhanced temperature difference between warm, moist air at the surface and cold air higher up, which causes the air to rise very quickly - one of the reasons for its rapid deepening.

[@robertcantor3294]

​@metoffice thanks for confirming that...

[@thomasanthonystockdale7900]

Stop changing the camera angle @metoffice. It's so frustrating 👎 because Aidan isn't even looking towards that camera. Stop trying new things. It wasn't broken in the first place..

[@AshleyBeadle]

Hopefully bit dryer for week ahead personally no more rain for a while just mild temperatures about 15 ,16or 17 ish .

[@74_Green]

I've mentioned this before here, warming North Atlantic, more stronger hurricanes over in the USA with more of them making their way up the Eastern Sea Board getting pushed towards Western Europe. We should expect events like Storm Ashley to happen more often. Correct?

[@BBaumBBaum]

the delay between you drawing and the line appearing is rough to watch

[@alanclarke3179]

What's happened to the Autumn and Winter? Where's the hard frost and seasonal weather.

[@JW_M]

early today lol, have a gd day guys

[@harveyharber9406]

Aiden I was just wondering if you know what the preseli hills are,they are similar height hills too Dartmoor and exmoor,but have never been mentioned ever, probably due to its size is very small,but just wanted to know if you've heard of them as I live there and I got 17c today at 200m above sea level,

[@alanreid8962]

Bring on the storms and rain it’s what’s been constantly happening in 2024

[@marksanders2964]

Hurricane 🌀 Oscar maybe small but it has caused lots of damage in Cuba! Cubas been out of power for 2/3 day's

[@metoffice]

Very true - size isn’t everything

[@thewhitbyphotographer]

Looks likE a leaf ? No :) More like a Dolphin.

[@liamgrows]

If storm Ashley deepen so much If uk were a lot warmer like 20 to 30 degree c would the storm become a tropical storm or a hurricane?

[@neilb2793]

Learned stuff here. Ta

[@kathleenphillips2993]

Aidan you did excellent job you should have been a teacher

[@tonyharpur8383]

We are now in the month called Brumaire (foggy) in the French revolutionary calendar of the 1790s.....

[@jacksie66]

20:09 the Brits are at it again 😂😂

[@seaton591]

Why is there always a huge high in the Atlantic?

[@alexalves4865]

The Azores high?

[@metoffice]

Yes - there is a semi-permanent high near the Azores called the Azores High. There’s a belt of high pressure that sits in or near the subtropics and stretches around the world

[@allancollins1531]

Different filming?

[@georgemorris9971]

I still think that the way the met office 'explains ' the influence of the jetstream is wrong. Surely the jetstream is CAUSED by temperature differences, it doersn't CAUSE them? Hence it is the low pressure areas that determine where the jetstream will be, not the other way around.Or so it seems to me - and what do I know?!

[@metoffice]

It’s a chicken and egg situation. The jet stream is caused by the temperature contrast but the jet stream also helps to deepen and steer areas of low pressure, which in turn change the temperature contrast and help influence the shape and speed of the jet stream.

[@PhilLewis-xg7iv]

do you think the cat scale of hurricains should go higher that 5 ? it seems ridiculous to only have half of a measuring device. it should be up to 10. im amazed british meteoroligists would agree to half a scale. hurricains are getting stronger with global warming and there needs to be a proper scale. discuss.

[@kierangreene3668]

Aidan doesn't seem to like to mention that theres another country to the west of the UK!Its called Ireland Aidan!😂😂

[@davearnold1139]

No offence, but this is putting me asleep

[@Black_VoidXx]

lol, understandable. 😂

[@intercity735]

I know what you mean a lot of this I already know from watching the weekly forecast,what I want to know more about is what is the outlook for the November or at least the first couple of weeks

[@mollypenwhistle7918]

Don’t watch then

[@intercity735]

@@mollypenwhistle7918 That's a great idea thank you👍

[@GrahamRead101]

@@intercity735that’s the 10 day forecast not the deep dive. This is always more about explanations

[@tims8326]

Interesting, but too parochial.

[@GrahamRead101]

In what way? It’s all about the weather in NW European continent / and U.K. specifically.

[@Mykst]

Please give some context, some constructive criticism. Explain what can be improved if you have ideas to make the forecast videos better.

[@Notasmurf-vw6to]

Just look out your window.

[@darraghgregory1269]

@Notasmurf-vw6to no we want weather in detail ? If that's your attitude then why are you here 🤔

[@Rangeroverden44]

Maybe, but, if, may do, could do, not certain, not clear. So, in other words...not got a clue!

[@brendancooney9401]

You not listening much, are you? Bit too technical?😉

[@Rangeroverden44]

@brendancooney9401 Yeah, way way over my head, I'm just an ordinary aerospace engineer, don't really do technical.

[@Mykst]

@@Rangeroverden44 I question your position as an aerospace engineer after the comment you just made. How are you supposed to understand aerospace engineering when you don't even understand how forecasts actually work?

[@RobertKillington-t3k]

Thanks Aidan. Clear explanations. There were times when the camera changes obscured the screen when it was showing the four different images. That will no doubt improve as your colleagues operating the cameras get to grips with the technology. 😊