Deep Dive 02/07/2024 - Hurricane Beryl - Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. This week Julian Hemming Tropical Prediction Scientist joins Annie for a masterclass in the Hurricane season and the unprecedented strength of Hurricane Beryl this early on in the season. We also take a look at what’s to come for the rest of July in the UK. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth.
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[@JonWarb204]

Hi, my wife and I are currently on holiday in Jamaica. We are keeping a close eye on any latest developments.

[@metoffice]

Make sure you follow the local advice closely to stay safe

[@michellemcgowan5657]

Stay safe guys ! ❤

[@olliethorley88]

Stay safe!!!!

[@paddythetheatredog4384]

Hoping you stay safe and can still enjoy your holiday!

[@endafgt]

Waw really looking forward to that warm spell at the end of the Month that might last a few days..This Spring/Summer is the worst I can remember..been dreadful

[@adamlea6339]

I think 2012 was worse, the wettest April to June period on record with destructive flooding.

[@garyvisick1409]

Can you explain why the azores high is reluctant to build over the uk and north west europe?

[@Hugh-nr5sx]

It never seems very "keen" does it and when it does often in Spring it topples in and tends to bring NE winds to the East and South East that are bloomin' cold. There is an associated question.. why are Scandinavian Highs so transient these days especially in Winter.? We never get the "if it lasts for three it will last for eight" spells any more.

[@spindrifter7519]

@@Hugh-nr5sx Could it be that the Jet Stream has changed its cycle in relation to the UK permanently? Ive lost count of all these videos that over the last 6 months that has shown the Jet Stream below the UK whereas in summer its usually above. I'd value your opinion

[@metoffice]

You're right the position of the jet stream at the moment over the UK rather than to the north means it's pretty difficult for the azores high to move over us. We will look into going into this summers set up so far in more detail in a future deepdive. Thanks for the suggestion :)

[@Hugh-nr5sx]

@@spindrifter7519 Well there has been talk of a weakening of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Drift..

[@themoodyteam]

28 minute vid flew in. Said it before, but these deep dives are genuinely interesting 🤔

[@edcoward1011]

Interesting that you think there could be 'just a few' warmer / settled days nearer the middle to end of the month. I'm finding this current weather pattern / set up highly sus.

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

Let's hope August and September will be our summer

[@alayneperrott9693]

Delighted to watch this "Hurricane Beryl" masterclass. More, more!

[@showme360]

Isn't Jamaica, and Belize a part of the British Commonwealth? as they seem to be in Berl's path!!

[@tonyaustin4472]

With Climate Change ramping up and seas getting even warmer is it likely we will see even stronger hurricanes than Category 5? Will there have to be a Category 6?

[@adamlea6339]

I think there is an upper limit to how strong the surface winds can get in a hurricane even with warming sea temperatures. As the winds increase, turbulence near the ground increases (because near-surface wind shear increases) which leads to increased mixing between low momentum air immediately above the surface and higher momentum air aloft, acting as a negative feedback on near surface wind speed. As for having a category 6, I don't think there are any plans to extend the scale. Once you get to category 5 you are looking at a catastrophic impact and a category 6 isn't going to be significantly different, and given the point of having these metrics is for getting the impact message out to the public, what is the point?

[@Stephanie1975_sw]

Thanks Annie 😊 Come back summer ☀️

[@LossyLossnitzer]

How does the solar maximum and the power form CMEs and other Sun related issues affect the upper atmosphere weather and putting power into planet earth, with the earths magnetic field dropping and the Auroras being seen all the way nearly to the equator.

[@margaretmaddern5443]

I can remember when the kids were at school in the 80s & early 90s June & July being a changable months & not always warm down here in Cornwall, I've got to say that the garden is quite dry despite the weather we've been having

[@catherinemorrison5447]

5.50pm Thanks for all the colourful diagrams of the hurricanes especially Beryl, I really feel sorry for those in Jamaica 🇯🇲 hope Beryl doesn't come to Britain!! Keep safe people!! ❤❤

[@waynelowery7760]

Great explanation on the developments of Hurricanes 👍👍 Looking forward to seeing how many might swing over towards the UK. As the hurricanes move over the tropical Atlantic do they absorb energy from the Atlantic and therefore help reduce the sea surface temperatures as they go?

[@MegaDeano1963]

Good show , enjoyed the " guest presenter" format . Also thankyou for the warning of an election , possibly on Thursday 😮

[@ruperthiggins7358]

Thanks Annie. Our weather is always so interesting.

[@RSLtreecare]

Very interesting, question. How much of this is being affected by climate change..

[@sjdyt]

Interesting watching this on Thursday afternoon after Beryl has passed over the south of Jamaica.

[@woooster17]

Just clicked onto the video - preparing myself for disappointment.. the weather, not you Annie 😉 When will a high pressure system finally win out against these countless low pressure systems that head across us like a conveyor belt ☹️

[@jakubwyszynski3686]

Those deep dives are very informative and fascinating. Thank you Met Office!

[@Monk_Duck]

Great video Sea is only getting warmer, insurance companies in north America are going to have to put up their premiums.

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

The heat storeg in sst anomalia us thr Soure of energy that probably mase Beryl tô has só much energy

[@basingstoke63]

Thanks , Annie and Julian . That was interesting .

[@christinepease890]

Thank you, Annie and Julian

[@AlanOastler]

Thank you both. Enjoyed Julian's presentation on hurricanes but trying to understand what is meant by easterly waves. Presumably in the Trade Winds ?

[@metoffice]

Here's some more information cpo.noaa.gov/projections-of-tropical-cyclones-and-rainfall-in-the-african-sahel-could-be-improved-with-better-understanding-and-representation-of-african-easterly-waves-in-models/#:~:text=African%20easterly%20waves%20(AEWs)%20propagate,Atlantic%20are%20linked%20to%20AEWs).

[@adrianmiller4285]

Why does a hurricane have an eye?

[@gregc.5684]

Google it

[@adamlea6339]

The air rotating around the storm spirals in towards the centre (converges) and increases in speed. There is a limit to how much the air can converge before it is forced upward forming the ring of deep convection around the centre of the storm (the eye wall). Some of the rising air in the thunderstorms around the center descends in the centre of the storm and the air warms and dries out as it descends, suppressing cloud formation.

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

This is disgusting, where the hell is summers.. has autumn begun

[@SimonStewart75]

Thank you for your ongoing fantastic weather and climate coverage.

[@ciarancorton8387]

will we have any warm weather

[@metoffice]

The last 10 minutes or so talks about the potential. Next week looks warmer than this week and there's a chance it could get rather warm in the south and east for a time towards the end of the week. Generally though it will stay around average for the time of year

[@llewelynhowells]

⁠Thanks Annie

[@deanl1108]

No

[@novox198818]

Great deep dive.

[@ianchantrey8868]

Feels and looks like the middle of autumn not the height of summer, very disappointing up to now.

[@nofider1]

Thank you Annie and team. :-)

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

Uou know , thoae tropical waves are casino sérios problem at North of Brasil. IT HAPPENED FLOODS. this year. 2024, at Belém. at Recife and at Huisnas. Georgetown etc ...

[@mollypenwhistle2274]

Thank you so much for more detail about Beryl, whilst mainly interested in what I’m gonna get I think it’s so important to cover in more detail significant events world wide so 👍🏻👍🏻, more please, love this channel 😊

[@Ny-kelCameron]

Very informative. Here in Trinidad and Tobago, we will be prepared for the upcoming season.

[@suewright1299]

Very many thanks indeed Annie, and of course Julian for all the very interesting information about Hurricane Beryl. Frightening too with La Niña in progress! I hope all those living in and around the affected areas stay safe, wildlife too! Thanks Annie for all the weather affects during Wimbledon, the Met too. Take care everyone esp @JonWarb204 !! Stay very safe!

[@edwardmacrury5376]

Thank you Annie and thanks to Julian for the analysis of Beryl, fascinating. We shouldn’t grumble about the UK weather given that it is not Category 5 hurricane

[@elaineambrose7413]

Wish our weather forecasts were always in-depth tike this , more insight into our changeable weather patterns and a great explanation as to how hurricanes develop . Although worrying they are becoming more frequent through warming seas ! My thoughts are with the Caribbean Islands and hope everyone’s okay ❤ Iv witnesses what hurricane feel like back in in 1998 in Dominican .

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

Ive são a costal flood at 206, being causade by até Harricane Flrence, that jut clima the North Atlantic, and arrived at London are. As a tropical shower. It cause floods atound UK

[@JW_M]

Quick question This time last year we had somewhat warm weather. We have climate change is this the reason why we have had such a poor summer or what has caused it to be different (hope it makes sense)

[@Richardssong18]

I keep seeing storys of heat waves possibly mid july onwards from exsacta weather

[@mayoman9w]

Excellent informative presentation, keep up the good work from Ireland.

[@lovegarbage]

Thank you. I can't help wondering whether the unusually high equitorial sea temperatures could be a symptom of the thermo-haline circulation weakening. In such a case would storm strength be driven by the NS temperature gradient increasing - is it doing this?

[@gjones9409]

Great to have info on hurricane Beryl. I'd be interested to hear about what happens to it as it progresses and diminishes. Love the deep dives.

[@brendanggallagher]

Excellent coverage by Annie and Julian clear and concise information with great charts. The sea temperature/Loading chart is a bit scary!

[@eddiejones.redvees]

It's been a fun holiday so far in Jamaica with the trouble at manchester when we first few out and no we have to stay in the bathroom tomorrow until things blow over 😅

[@nicenac]

Is there going to be some snowfall on the highest tops of the Cairngorms and Ben Nevis this coming Thursday?

[@metoffice]

No snow but there may be some hail in the showers and a risk of thunder and lightning

[@nicenac]

@@metoffice But your app is predicting snow tonight on Ben Nevis

[@nicenac]

@@metoffice How boring I like to see snow on Ben Nevis in Midsummer!!

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

Thanks

[@rayhaddock779]

Thnka you again and great to get a more in depth look at hurricanes and the hurricane season

[@GrahamRead101]

Yet another really interesting deep dive, and well explained by Annie and Julian. Thx

[@jasonsjourneys8321]

absolutely fantastic thank you

[@janstevens1376]

This is nice weather do not like it to hot anyway, We could do with some rain here in London

[@anthonycline9007]

Nice to have hurricane topic. Good stuff!

[@petewright4640]

If the ocean heat content continues on the same track as that seen in 2023 but with favourable conditions for hurricane development then by September we'll be in a situation never seen before. It could be dramatic!

[@adamlea6339]

A window of perfect atmospheric conditions in peak season coinciding with an area of disturbed weather in the deep tropics and we could break the record for the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin.

[@wildlifegardener-tracey6206]

Very interesting thank you.

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

The huricain is impacting on our weather

[@margaretmaddern5443]

Thank you for an interesting programme

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

Summer is officially a washout

[@timh1907]

Fascinating presentation. Thanks.

[@karendiesner5008]

Much appreciated, as always!

[@ThianBantams13]

Thanks Annie and Julian👍👍

[@neilpearson157]

I've learnt something this evening. I had no idea that hurricanes start near the west coast of Africa and then move west. How is it that a hurricane goes against the trend, moving westwards when most 'weather' goes in the opposite direction? You've just shown us a strong jet stream coming from the US. It would seem that the jet stream is independent of the hurricane; is that correct?

[@adamlea6339]

The mean atmospheric flow in the tropics is the trade winds which blow east to west, and easterly waves and tropical cyclones which develop from them are embedded in that flow, hence they move east to west. It is down to the position of the semi-permanent Azores high around 30N, which due to clockwise flow around an anticyclone in the northern hemisphere, generates south westerly winds to its north (i.e. towards/across Europe) and easterly winds to the south (i.e. over the tropical Atlantic). Tropical cyclones which start in the Atlantic can move westward with the trads winds but if they encounter a weakness in the ridge of high pressure to the north, they can turn north into the sub-tropics then turn to the north-east and head towards NW Europe as they either transition into extra-tropical cyclones when they interact with the mid-latitude jet stream or get ripped apart by high vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures. It is generally the larger scale atmospheric flow which dictates where tropical cyclones will track during their existance.

[@metoffice]

You might like these videos kzbin.info/www/bejne/hnWolHSum7iMl6s they explain the ocean circulation pattern which is the starting point of all things weather !

[@deanl1108]

Absolutely vile disgusting weather its winter in the UK it's never been this bad before. We never have summer now in the UK.

[@jomelis2309]

Thanks very interesting

[@shedlife1745]

very interesting thanks

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

Hood morning from Brasil

[@davespain7716]

Thank you Annie and the MET Office team for another great deep dive into our disappointing weather at the moment.

[@samevans2332]

Could you please focus a deep dive on why the weather has been so cool and wet for the last 12 months and why it has become so stuck in this pattern?

[@adamlea6339]

Yes, I'd be interested in why the jet stream has been biased south of its normal position for such a long time. I know we get locked in weather patterns from time to time but not a year and a half at a time.

[@Gary0557]

It's only a disappointing summer in the UK if you like hot weather. Plenty like me don't, and for us so far, it's been a wonderful summer.

[@anamariacarvalho6738]

It us aClimate Change

[@paulajones4999]

I’m on acid with that tropical storm colours. Thought I was being hypnotised. Well explained tho and how important those storms are for our weather.

[@tianany2]

Thank you! Quite glitchy the screen though.

[@gregc.5684]

It is showing the storm. Not glitching