Deep Dive 18/06/2024 - Where will the high lie? - Met Office weekly weather forecast UK

This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. It's turning warmer but how warm will it get and how long will it last? Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern.
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We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.

[@waynester71]

It’s amazing how a warm, dry, sunny weather prediction can lift the mood and literally help with peoples mental health.. It really does help lift the mood for the whole nation! ☀️😊🙏🏽

[@nomercyinc6783]

the weather doesnt improve mental health

[@francesca1963cd]

Thank you,Aidan.Fascinating as always,as well as being informative.With Glastonbury looming,the weather is bound to break down!!!! Thank you once again.Really enjoy these Deep Dives.

[@alayneperrott9693]

It must be a lot of work to assemble and organize all the graphics needed for a clear but nuanced perspective like this, so thank you, Aidan. I hope there is a team to help you!

[@Oughut88]

It’s extraordinary that anyone ever settled in Britain at all considering how dire the climate is. ‘Soggy Island’ as Lawrence Durrell called it.

[@Mykst]

Yet without our so called "soggy" climate we wouldn't have some of the most beautiful, green countryside in the world. I'll take a soggy climate over scorched, brown land prone to wildfires.

[@annaparry4045]

Thank goodness the weather is looking a little warmer and brighter. I feel cheated at this time of year when the long evenings are dull, grey and cold. It’s the time of year to make the most of being outside. Thank you anyway, I know, one way or another, there’s nothing you can do about it!

[@user-ww4fc4mn4n]

There’s no such thing as bad weather is just bad clothing

[@capri2673]

I like this weather. It's not hot at all. I don't want a return to 39C like in 2022.

[@charlotteanddavestorey6553]

Totally agree with you that’s far too hot , 20c is about nice , personally I can’t wait for the autumn .

[@TheIlhanTheElequent_ishaq]

It was 40

[@kiddcapri1711]

​@@charlotteanddavestorey6553 I agree anything over 25/26° is too much.. I like the autumn too, but don't like the short days

[@michaelanthonyroberts8503]

I like summer to be just that, summer. Low to mid 20's please. There's plenty of time for autumn. 40c was abnormal.

[@matthewtrow5698]

Agreed for the most part, still a bit cool, 24c in the day, 12c at night is just goldilocks zone.

[@jeffkowal-pw3cd]

Up until recently I was wearing the same clothes as I did during winter . I insisted that we keep the winter bedding on as well because there has been no noticeable change in temp since early spring round here . Just waiting for t shirt time.

[@SueGirling68]

Thanks Aidan, could you guys say more about the weather in Cornwall as we seem a bit left out each forecast ?? I'm sure as well as us locals the tourists would like to know how their holiday weather will pan out. Thank you for sharing, much love. xx 🥰

[@Traceva]

I am very relieved that we are NOT having a Heatwave The Weather we are having now in London suits me

[@thewhitbyphotographer]

20 degrees and light winds would be amazing for me.

[@nicenac]

Yeah I don't understand why people want 40c heat Dr Micheal Mosley died in such temperatures

[@Traceva]

@@nicenac So true. Such a devastating loss

[@yvonnefarrell1029]

We can give you a bit of everything here in the US - heatwave, tropical storm, snowstorms, and wildfires. Whew! Need a London weekend and cannot afford it. Sigh.

[@lindagarczynski2415]

I’m as cold as during the winter, it seems to be none stop cold and grim .

[@DMiddleton-bj5wc]

About time, never got my summer clothes out yet!

[@user-ww4fc4mn4n]

Quite refreshing to see the weatherman not on the BBC where you can speak freely and in depth excellent excellent meteorological dive

[@SamsVlogstrainsmore]

Thanks Aidan. 20-25c is my ideal temperature with some sunshine.

[@yannisb2178]

I really missed the Azores high. Welcome back

[@benstradling7615]

These forecasts are great gives an idea of what to expect with an opportunity to make plans 👍

[@edwardhart5466]

Brilliant forecast Aidan as all ways ,Thank very much

[@user-oq2pl6xq7c]

I don't mind no heatwave, I'm old enough to remember moderate summers which were comfortable and great for us kids out on our bikes

[@tonysmith3592]

We’re down in Dorset near Weymouth on holiday this week and after last weeks deep dive I wasn’t holding out much hope but the weather has been dry, sunny very warm with a nice breeze. Some would say perfect conditions!

[@Van-Lifer-UK]

This year in Scotland, the heat waves are about 15 degrees lol.

[@neilb2793]

Loved the breakdown of the models and differing possible outcomes. More focus on north west please (ie Northern Ireland)! Cheers

[@kevindruce8915]

That jet stream is meandering a lot.

[@johndaggett3953]

Love these episodes. I'm getting slightly obsessed with the jet stream! Really liked that you debunked the MSM nonsense, and clarified what is a heatwave.

[@quentinhordle925]

A well explained walk through of the volatile opportunities as we move towards July. Nice to see the definition explode the myth from the "Mirror". All to play for .

[@nickrider5220]

Always fascinating 👍🏻 A lot better news than we've had recently , I just want some dry weather and some sunshine 😎

[@johnadams6771]

Sitting here in South West France on holiday on Thursday under all that rain you were predicting. I know Met Office is primarily concerned about the UK but would it be possible to include a little more detail about what's happening in Europe, especially during the main holiday season? Met Office far exceeds the detail coming from meteo france as it is and even the app is superior and equally as accurate.

[@stevegeddes2583]

Where is our summer?!

[@philipmurphy2]

Thanks Aidan for the deep dive

[@gamingtonight1526]

For the sake of the elderly (me!) and babies, and people that have to work outside, let it not go above 25C, please!

[@EMASpotter-vc5ud]

Why was there no yellow thunderstorm warnings in the Midlands and southern parts of Britain on Saturday where there was more thunderstorm activity and from what I witnessed more severe.

[@alexbowman7582]

If you do do the fish tank water demonstration of high pressure and low pressure don’t forget to put a small plastic sunbather in the high pressure side and a small plastic umbrella holding man in the low pressure side.

[@8027zts]

Great detailed explanation of uk weather variations hppe it fine and dry on holiday in Northern England next week

[@paulmarkman5247]

As always from you, Aidan, an excellent and informative presentation. Are some of the more detailed model run images/spaghetti plots etc available to the public? All the best - Paul

[@jameshcox]

Fascinating as ever. Thanks for the details.

[@debbiet5130]

Thank you Aidan! This is much better news for us here in the far north of Scotland😂.

[@YvonneWinston-Lawford]

I love the deep dive wouldn’t miss it

[@alanb8696]

How easy or hard is it to predict how and where the jet stream will be?

[@GrahamRead101]

A great deep dive, really interesting to see the dilemma over which models are saying what.

[@ConnerPerez2024]

I am from Ohio, and right now, we are having a heat wave, with temps going almost to 100 degrees. I'm very jealous of what the UK is getting. I would love to have 70 or 60 degrees for the daytime highs, but that's clearly not happening. Keep up the great videos! I’m not originally from the UK. I was born and raised in the United States, but I’ve been fascinated with the UK weather, for a few years.

[@shukes4645]

you're fascinated with rain?

[@nicenac]

Why do you people still use Fahrenheit when the rest of world uses Celsius?

[@ConnerPerez2024]

@@shukes4645 I’m fascinated in all kinds of weather. Not just for the US, but for other countries too.

[@ConnerPerez2024]

@@nicenac I dunno.

[@chezer9236]

Nice we are getting some drier, sunnier and a bit warmer weather, although just hope there aren't any thunderstorms after it or doesn't get to humid especially at night, that's the one reason I'm glad for the cooler weather but the rain does need to stop.

[@andy5786]

Great live deep dive weather content hope we get some summer warm weather 😊

[@crishill6458]

If the warm air comes in from the south or south West why is it always warmer in the south east?

[@doszl]

Air coming in from the southwest is not considered warm as its travelling over a cool ocean. Southerly winds cause higher temperatures in all of the country however the southeast in particular because it is populous (urban heat island effect in London), is at a lower elevation than the southwest, and is closer to the continental mainland meaning the air doesn't travel over cold water for very long.

[@conburd3338]

That's in winter where the sea air from the west is warmer than continental or arctic air coming from East and North. In summer continental air is warmer than air from the ocean

[@leejohnson3209]

These deep dives highlight to me just how monumentally difficult it is to predict weather even a few days ahead, particularly for the UK. In a paradoxical way predicting climate is probably easier, but even that itself still has a high degree of uncertainty. I think it's that paradox, coupled with the level of uncertainty that gives credence to the idea that the 'global warming' is a scam. I don't think the policies of western governments help either. Taxing fossil fuels on the one hand, not investing in alternatives and being in the pockets of the petrochemical industries on the other is a sure fire way to make people feel suspicious.

[@GrahamRead101]

And yet the data the met office and others constantly collect clearly show average global temperatures rising, as predicted. So I don’t think you can draw the conclusion that it’s a scam - in fact if anything it reenforces the concern. Predicting trends is easier than the detailed day to day variability.

[@danellis-jones1591]

Has the official definition of a heatwave changed over the years?

[@stevegeddes2583]

So will we get summer or will I just call it a heat wave , given the amount of clouds out there it's still grey 🩶

[@thewonkyeyedwoman]

When do the deep dives, please can you outline the UK in a darker colour so we can see it better 😊

[@Gary0557]

26c. 😂 We still wear coats and gloves in London at 26c.

[@nicenac]

Also I would like to ask you how common is dry heat in the UK like what we saw 2 years ago in July never mind the temperatures which were exceptional? What would be the definition of dry heat in terms of relative humidity?

[@tonyd4911]

Better late than never! 😄

[@kiddcapri1711]

Question met office... The heatwave threshold map you showed around 14 minutes in. Darker red in london area, less dark in and around the midlands, east anglia area and pinky prerty much for the rest of the country. Is that because of the urban heat effect that its hotter in the red/built up areas? Lots of buildings and roads retaining the heat.

[@johnbaxter189]

Kinky Jetstream

[@LeedsLeo_JLArt]

Have it off with the like button remember to share to ‘love’ 🎉

[@nathanc9928]

Can finally return to the beer garden 🍻🎉

[@XL-5117]

Forgot global warming, it’s my fault that the weather is awful during summer I’m afraid, it’s because I bought a cooler when we had warm weather in 2022! I have clearly jinxed the weather since then, guilty as charged.

[@XL-5117]

It’s the same as when I bought a snow shovel the last time we had snow, and we’ve never seen snow since 😂

[@jasontcp5757]

Summers coming home (hopefully)

[@thewhitbyphotographer]

Can you explain the difference between an operational run in comparison to all the other ensembles please ? Is the operational run somehow more significant than all the others ??

[@metoffice]

Normally it’s higher resolution than the other ensemble runs. Also, in terms of the other ensemble runs, there tends to be a control run with the same starting conditions as the operational but at lower resolution and then there’s 50 or so other low resolution runs, each with slightly different starting conditions

[@thewhitbyphotographer]

@@metoffice Thankyou for getting back to me. By "Higher Resolution" does that mean your putting more precise/better detail/data into the model run.

[@SteveAldous]

Weather forecast for Saturday 22nd in Felixstowe please 💪🙏

[@alexmac513]

Glastobury week next week, its been so wet for so long, will that welcome extra heat last through to the following weekend? Hears hoping.....

[@gillswift274]

Thanks Aidan for the deep dive and a most promising forecast☀️😊

[@stephenwhittle7451]

so still a bit iffy then 🙃

[@metoffice]

We are confident about a more settled and warmer spell for the next week or so. How high the temperatures get and how long the heat lasts is the iffy bit.

[@heatherjoy479]

I am happy no heat wave at less

[@karmascotland8]

Aidan McGiverns' shirt is a bit distracting, IMO. I wish him well in learning.

[@markquigley9730]

I like the lack of certainty expressed. Ordinary forecasts are frequently wrong - much better to have probabilities expressed.

[@allancollins1531]

What if and maybe?

[@markkinnish1196]

A question to ask the Met Office is it true when you’ve had a prolonged period of wet weather like we have had it can change very quickly similar to what happened in 1995 it was quite a cool wet June we got to end of June and went into a prolonged dry hot spell for July and August

[@metoffice]

Weather patterns in the UK can change very quickly any time of the year. This June has already been a start contrast to May. May was much warmer than average but mostly cloudy and wet. June so far has been much drier (yes, showery, but rain totals have been lower) but it's also been much cooler. Second half of June looking different again.

[@robertgowan1205]

Bit early but what about the British gp bit of rain would spice that up and has been rather damp lol

[@Willster451]

Will I be getting the ice-creams and sun tan lotion out in the month of July? Or will next week's weather be short lived?

[@rachbeanz]

Would have liked the dive to be a bit deeper #metheads

[@bobbaggs6149]

Only weather does weather. Simulations are just guesswork. Yet you present them almost as fact.

[@nowimfollowingu3925]

All we all want to know Aidan is in the name of all that’s holy, is it ever going to stop raining!

[@TheIlhanTheElequent_ishaq]

Can you please update the met office CET?

[@tidtidy4159]

50c in China.

[@PowerEditzLFC]

Are temperatures going to have a long spell of high soon?

[@kiddcapri1711]

Did you even watch the video?

[@richardedwards9405]

Compared to elsewhere the UK looks like Goldilocks island!

[@neillbutcher613]

Must be great being a Met Office forecaster. “Here’s your next 10 days weather” Next day. “Forget what I said yesterday, here’s your next 10 days weather”. Next day. “Forget what I said yesterday, here’s your next 10 days weather”. Rinse and repeat 😂😂

[@Mykst]

It's almost as if the weather changes all the time and we need daily updates to reflect that.

[@Controvi]

I am driving to Austria on my motorcycle on the 29th. Could you please steer the rain away from there for a week? Thank you

[@stevegeddes2583]

26°c isn't a heatwave

[@Mykst]

But he just gave you the criteria for a heatwave and how it is different from country to country. Care to explain why you disagree with him?

[@Bigjohn9181]

I love the heat ❤😊

[@Great_WesternTVFan]

Let's not repeat the September 2023 weather.

[@elfspicer]

Whatever happens, I'm sure that the Met Office will tell us that June 2024 was the hottest on record.

[@metoffice]

Yes, we've all heard this quip lots of times already

[@Andy-zv1nj]

@@metoffice Yup, another dumb meme 🤦

[@nicenac]

I want to ask the Met Office has there ever been fresh snow cover on top of Ben Nevis and the Cairngorms in July and August at all?

[@martinbrown9947]

I can vaguely remember it snowing on the cairngorms mid-summer roughly late 90's to early 2000's . I worked alongside staff in a ski shop at the time which is why i remember it.

[@nicenac]

@@martinbrown9947 Did the snow settle?

[@nicenac]

@@martinbrown9947 Lol and why do you think the Met Office not answer my question?

[@ejbh3160]

Ah yes the Glastonbury monsoon - a well known weather anomaly around the Summer Solstice in South West England.

[@Kevin-vc9nw]

😂😂heatwave maby in August or mid July

[@chrisa9043]

No charge of getting 40 c in the uk.

[@TheGodpharma]

It got very close in 2022, so with global warming I would say there is a very high chance of seeing 40C within a few years.

[@Simon-qn5wm]

Love to see some 35-40 degrees after all this cold, wet and miserable weather

[@gtp_vexd3507]

10 years, tops. Then your accurate forecasts will be entirely AI produced. Some food for thought, Honor. 🤔

[@karlbarker-ic8gw]

I’ll really want hot temperatures and will there be any high temperatures in June July and August?

[@andybaker2456]

Move to southern Spain, I'm sure you'll find everything you need and more.

[@michellemcgowan5657]

@karlbaker-ic8gw I do too , not all of us can afford a holiday abroad! Would be lovely to do things with the kids without the rain 🌧️ in the so called summer holidays

[@butterfly-video]

I understand that to a meteorologist, the temperature at 5000 feet is an "interesting" stat, but it's importance to the rest of us is completely irrelevant, because nobody lives at 5000 feet. What is much more interesting is maps and the movements of weather on those maps. I like the deep dive but I often feel far too much emphasis is placed on stats, and not enough emphasis on maps and wider ranging maps. The bigger picture is nice.

[@iainnnnnn]

Just waiting for the "hottest June on record" headline coming soon.....

[@metoffice]

Look at last year's headlines. (Someone else in the comments has stolen your 'joke' btw)

[@auldfouter8661]

The Met Office is not in the comedy business and I don't see a future for you there either.

[@darraghgregory1269]

Oh here we go people backlashing, feck off the met Office never said its gonna be a hot June so knock it off

[@mcxo-dd66]

"It's mostly been the hottest, june in recorded history on average 50 years after records began"

[@codstar3]

Well me and my Romania Shepard dog, we heard that the earth's inner core has slowed in rotation and no matter the flashy shirt from Aidan's extensive wardrobe will save us in about ten years.🤣🤣

[@callumglass]

Yeah you'll have to wait a few billion years for affect though 😂🎉

[@JW_M]

Just call it Bi polar weather 🤣

[@darraghgregory1269]

I hope our record temperature gets broken this summer , I'm in Ireland so ours is 33.3c , if the UK can get 41c then Ireland could get up to 37c

[@indianjoe52]

A heatwave in Britain, a couple of days of 28 - 30 degrees🤣🤣

[@Mykst]

Yes? What's funny about it? You realise the average summer temperature for London is only 23C right? This is why the criteria for a heatwave is different in different countries. Surprised you're only just figuring this out.

[@susandibble3525]

I’m sorry I have been subscribed for some time now and I just have to say, these new child like coloured pictures do not work for the average brain 🤷‍♀️ you cannot see the uk for one, and secondly we are not you guys. Please come up with a better method or just show us the damn maps please 🙏

[@kenharding8437]

I'm off to lie down in a darkened room....info overload.

[@tims8326]

You did torture the next Weds position there.