Michael Kofman and Shashank Joshi Analyze the Ukrainian Battlefield in 2024

As 2023 came to a close, many people began to characterize the war in Ukraine as a stalemate. Though it is true that very little has recently changed along the front lines and that neither side will be able to make a breakthrough, this label is misleading. Indeed, as 2024 takes hold both Moscow and Kyiv are working to rebuild their offensive capacity. Developments this year regarding both sides’ access to munitions, capacity to train fighters, and the extent of casualties in the war will be critical in shaping the conflict’s long-term trajectory. As such, 2024 is likely to be a decisive year for the war in Ukraine. To discuss where things stand and where they could go, Michael Kofman and Shashank Joshi join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Mike Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues.
Shashank Joshi is the Defense Editor at The Economist and a Visiting Fellow at The Department of War Studies at King’s College London.
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[@user-xh9hp8qe8r]

Thank you for this sobering and comprehensive discussion.

[@markbeaumont3292]

NATO would never attack an enemy like Russia without air superiority (at least in the area of an offensive) so why expect the Ukrainians to do it? Add in Russia defence in depth which they had over a year to prepare due to Western procrastination.

[@fronabulax63]

But air superiority would not help against a nuclear escalation, thats why nuclear powers fight proxywars,like this one, anyway.

[@cruise_missile8387]

It wouldn't matter anyway, the Ukrainians don't have the numbers. Western doctrine also calls for at least a 3 to 1 advantage on the offense. They don't have that.

[@sointu123]

Finland during the winter war only got a fraction of outside help compared to Ukraine now. They made a peace deal on Soviet terms. Ukraine has to make its own decisions based on their situation and resources, not constantly thinking about what the West allegedly expects of them. I'm not saying they should negotiate, only that they have to do what they think is best for them.

[@Jorjioo]

@@fronabulax63 stop trying to sound smart, you're embarrassing.

[@fronabulax63]

@@Jorjioo 😅

[@user-yi1qp1ch7s]

Should i still be surprised that people keep dodging a diplomacy solution and keep talking about arming up while admitting it's leading nowhere?

[@coomberaider]

Its a shame I only stumbled on this two weeks after it was published. Both contributors have a lot of interesting clear imput. Thankyou .

[@DaniRaj666]

Depressing scenarios for Ukraine for each one. EU needs to step up, the Russian nazis cannot be allowed to win any territory.

[@Wolfvain-qs5su]

Russian Nazi's?

[@Alex-lg6nz]

Best cooks in the world, working in perfect kitchen, can't make good food from rotten ingredients. You condemned yourself to defeat, when you have chosen to base your unfeasible plans on false initial information.

[@DaniRaj666]

@@Alex-lg6nz You are talking about Russia I presume?

[@toddfromwork8931]

What century is it again?

[@olethomsen4931]

How long does it take to ramp up theEurdopean industrial base for weapons production? Wouldn´t three years be an optimistic guess?

[@williamdooresq]

Gloomy but informative. Thank you! Looking forward to the next edition

[@yp77738yp77739]

Nobody has explained to the public in the west, at least in any coherent manner, exactly why our taxation should be being used to support the Ukrainian state. This is a civil war and not in our strategic interest to get involved in any way other than to minimise the risk of the use of nuclear weapons. I don’t care what happens in Ukraine, much the same as Ukraine doesn’t care what happens in the UK. I don’t support our aid in any way other than offer medical supplies.

[@pierman4858]

I would love to see some scenario planning by the EU or Europeans in which we calculate costs. Because my feeling is that while short term we may be saving some € long term a Russian success costs much more.

[@meshzzizk]

why?

[@jeffreycurtiss4718]

What is interesting about this discussion.

[@brenthorn2475]

Mike is partially correct implying each individual country trained their Ukrainian brigades differently. However, NATO protocols of warfare were applied. Weapon training, systems, maneuvers, etc. are a blueprint format developed and coordinated by NATO members on a routine basis, year-after-year. Languages may be different, but all else is the same. Saying that though, I do agree there are some differences in heavy weaponry.

[@allysonashby5201]

We ordinary folk might be accused of having war fatigue yes. We're tired of the dithering and to-ing and fro-ing and lack of decisiveness of those who are in authority and who can really help Ukraine. This situation calls for action that may go against world order and expected international norms but then again, Russia is a strangely unusual foe who doesn't follow accepted international behaviour. Couldn't the west for once, give Russia a taste of its own medicine and help save Ukrainian lives?

[@stank8460]

Well said 😢

[@meshzzizk]

i have no idea what that means and it is the united states, not russia, which has gone around the world, far from its borders, starting wars with countries that posed no threat and killing innocents over past decades-korea, vietnam, cambodia and laos, coups and sponsored death squads all over latin america and the middle east, a disastrous imperial invasion of iraq that upended the entire region, a failed and bloody occupation of afghanistan which then abandoned the people who trusted us, a nato regime change operation which removed gadaffi and plunged libya into warlord on warlord chaos, constantly backing every israeli atrocity against the palestinians-need i go on? so really, hesitating to amplify death and destruction in the world is the exception for the US, not the rule.

[@stank8460]

@@meshzzizk Dude what are you on about? Here is just the tip of the iceberg of all the conflicts the Russians have involved them selfs in. Btw the Russians invaded Afghanistan too... weird how you justify Russia invading a sovereign country killing almost 1 million soldier and citizens, displacing 7million people around Europe, destroying 20% of the country and you wrap it all up with America bad?! I hope you realize just how jaded and out of touch you are with your logic structure. Any ways time to get educated. Polish-Soviet War (1918/1919-1921) Soviet invasion of Azerbaijan, 1920 Soviet invasion of Armenia, 1920 Red Army invasion of Georgia, 1921 Soviet invasion of Xinjiang, 1934 Soviet invasion of Poland, 1939 Winter War, 1939 Soviet occupation of the Baltic States, 1940 Soviet occupation of Bessarabia and Northern Bukovina, 1940 Soviet invasion of Manchuria, 1945 Hungarian Revolution of 1956 Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia, 1968 Soviet-Afghan War, 1979-1989 First Chechen War, 1994-1997 Second Chechen War, 1999-2000 Russo-Georgian War, 2008 Russo-Ukrainian War, 2014-present Russian invasion of Ukraine, 2022-present

[@romanmelsas]

I love how experts are offering to switch the focus from the problem of supplying expensive weapons to the problem of insufficient training. Sure, if you train the brigade for 8 months instead of 6 months, then Ukrainian soldiers will be trained to fly faster and higher than SU and MIG, using their trained hands, to achieve air superiority, and they will throw different types of heavy objects into the Russians better than MSTA-B of M777, with their trained hands! This is so refreshing and much-anticipated wisdom.

[@SOMALIA60218]

Andrea Kendall i love you beautiful lady.

[@grisall]

There is no better training than ojt and the Ukrainians are the most highly trained military force on the planet. They could train NATO not vice versa

[@pavelhromadka658]

I doubt this is universally true. Look at russian army. As an institution they logically have the same level of field experience as UAF. But if they in time lose everyone they put to the front line, is that really the best training? I think the abilities of various organizations to train their people through experience differ wildly.

[@grisall]

@@pavelhromadka658 no amount of training, ojt or otherwise, will work if you are forced to be part of a human wave assault.

[@pavelhromadka658]

@@grisall We do not exactly know. They may be now to the operating thetan level.

[@grisall]

@@pavelhromadka658 the fields blanketed in dead Russians and the rusty remnants of their equipment indicate not

[@meshzzizk]

@@pavelhromadka658if you listen to what michael kofman says, neither ukraine nor russia is fighting with the same army they had at the start of the war. between casualties, troop rotation, and flight, it’s largely different men fighting with new tactical playbooks and battlefield adaptations.

[@mokhathi]

I keep hearing about Russia war economy, what economy is Ukraine on?

[@lookinaturmom]

Broke crypto bro economy

[@tomgjgj]

They fully mobilized their nation at the start of the war. Including the economy.

[@christopheryellman533]

Life support by the United States.

[@Horny_Fruit_Flies]

@@christopheryellman533Nope. Most of financial aid is from the EU. US supplies a lot of weapons. Or at least, it did...

[@seanmellows1348]

Excellent discussion, though a bit depressing.

[@vk-fb4ox]

Very interesting discussion. Thank you

[@overdrive5126]

The Russian economy depends on EU buying oil and gas, and the EU will never stop buying!

[@ami_269]

Shawshank 🤣

[@ar5ena1]

You’d think the host would pronounce his guest name correctly. Kinda embarrassing.

[@user-xw4gr9kn8n]

Stalemate..... that word gets bantered around frequently, yet the people using that word do not understand its fundamental meaning. A stalemate is "Game Over" where neither player can legally move. The war in Ukraine is hardly a stalemate. To compare the war to the game of chess, the opening of the game has concluded with the first exchange of minor pieces and Ukraine (playing the black pieces since Russia made the first move) has equalized. After the opening comes the middle game of chess. The middle game will proceed with the exchange of minor and major pieces until one side makes a break through that ends in a checkmate (often as a result of sacrifice(s) to gain a winning position), or the game proceeds to the end game where all of the major and minor pieces have been exchanged and either one side gains a decisive advantage of material and/or tempo, or one side blunders away an advantage in a stalemate, or all of the pieces have been captured by the kings and the game ends in a draw. With the dynamics as they currently are, Ukraine is playing a drawn game and will lose some of its territory. The only way to win will be for Ukraine to decisively attack Russia. Taking out Russia's military/industrial infrastructure via covert operations along with NATO and American allies putting direct pressure on Russia's supply chains via sanctions would be a very good way to choke Russia without invoking a military response. Russia's means to support its military in Ukraine has to be severed in order for Ukraine to accomplish its goals of booting the Russians out of it country. Thusly weakened, Ukraine could drive Russian forces back and out of its country. That is the face of a long haul war. Please stop calling this conflict a stalemate. It's far, far from it.

[@toddfromwork8931]

What a fart sniffer

[@ezeqkkk]

"stalemate" was zalushny words in the economist interview ...

[@meshzzizk]

@@ezeqkkkcorrect

[@vortigern3910]

I am sure that America cannot wait for Russia to get their hands on a patriot missile system.🙃

[@toddfromwork8931]

They're usually positioned so far behind the line of contact, that it's pretty unlikely, but not impossible at all.

[@Houseabear]

In winter Moscow, I listened very carefully to the entire discussion presented. and is amazed that there is a different reflection on the consequences. and the consequences of the consequences, and not a single word about the causes. the fact of the guilt of NATO and the entire collective West, as the initiator and provocateur of this situation, is ignored. refusal of Russian security guarantees during negotiations before the operation, breakup of negotiations in Istanbul on the initiative of Great Britain after its start. the war machine in the Urals will work if NATO gets more actively involved in the war, Russian civil society will more actively support mobilization, now it’s more like a war on TV for my fellow citizens. It’s hypocritical to push a Ukrainian into a fight and leave him empty-handed after it starts. It’s good that we are now keeping our distance from such approaches in partnerships.

[@plinkfuture2557]

Lol - keep drinking the Kremlin‘s Kool-Aid

[@Houseabear]

@@plinkfuture2557 Do you know what a soldier looks like after using a tos 1a thermoboric charge? the effects on it are similar to sunburn and swelling from a bruise. man one big bruise. I hope that you are mentally prepared for such a tan. since you love war games so much and it's so funny

[@DaniRaj666]

@@Houseabear It is your deranged Fuhrer who plays war games, kills civilians and pretends to be some imperial overlord conquering lands and subduing people. And raises oddest past grievances to stay in power and aggrandize himself and his state. He is a joke. But a destructive clown to his people and its neighbors. Hitler/Stalin figure of our times.

[@christopheryellman533]

You make a lot of sense Housie.

[@felixf.3392]

It's nonsense to spend hours imagining strategies about how Ukraine will win the war. Ukraine has been on the losing track for a long time and nothing will change as time goes on, on the contrary. As a reminder... Russia just won an arms race for artillery ammunition against the US and the rest of NATO. Western industry is unable to supply Ukraine with enough ammunition. That's why the Republicans in the US Senate voted against further aid to Ukraine because they see no prospect of how Ukraine can win.

[@pavelhromadka658]

With North Korean shells they have been able to regain their artillery advantage again, at least for now. But could they be able to build up production more than the West? And what about South Korea? This cooperation is a direct challenge for them. And if some countries could pay for South Korean shells, and howitzers, of much better quality, for Ukraine, what the outcome would then be?

[@pavelhromadka658]

I know it would take time to transfer them, but this is not going to be a short affair.

[@felixf.3392]

@@pavelhromadka658 The artillery shells that the US produces in a month are consumed by Ukraine in two days. And this despite the fact that the military budget of the US alone is 20 times higher than the military budget of Russia. And this has the following structural reason. The western NATO states are at the forefront of value creation thanks to their strong currencies. The problem is that this means that production in these countries is not competitive with emerging countries. That's why the production of an artillery shell in the West costs 11 times as much as in Russia. It is simply not profitable for the Western defense industry to produce this weapon in large quantities.

[@pavelhromadka658]

@@felixf.3392 In some way of accounting. But the governments know that they either defeat russia at some point in the future or get destroyed themselves. So chances are they would ramp it up. And of course, are you sure all the numbers and plans get public?

[@toddfromwork8931]

@@felixf.3392 NATO enjoys the very strong infrastructure of the Americas and Western Europe as well as a billion people. Automated AI controlled armament factories are not beyond their capabilities, and could spring up very quickly. It's just a matter of will. Don't be so quick to dismiss them or you'll find yourself on the canvas like Mike Tyson was against Buster Douglas.

[@user-tv3ph9ye1e]

Estonia training afu😂😂😂😂..what the hell does estonja know about war😂😂.smh

[@inq752]

They beat soviet union 100 years ago. Living next to terrorist state makes you appreciate what you have

[@pravinsarvade7608]

Estonia Nazi giving training to Ukrainian Nazi 😂

[@markbeaumont3292]

They fought for years in Afghanistan.....what you on about?

[@user-tv3ph9ye1e]

@@markbeaumont3292 afghanistan...tribe men in sandals & ak...Lol..u sooo stupid

[@toddfromwork8931]

They're part of NATO and have NATO training. You must be Latvian or something

[@pravinsarvade7608]

What about Ukrainian game changer and most hyped counter offinceve with NATO train Ukrainian Nazi army with game changer weapons and how many mobilization Ukraine did from 24 February 2022 and where are millions soldiers are and Westan propaganda tell us no Ukrainian casualties

[@nicolaiby1846]

Its like your comment was written by a badly malfunctioning Kremlin bot. It has all the shitty Russian buzzwords from 'Western propaganda' to 'Nazi', incredible. Calling out Ukraine for its Neo-Nazi elements(partly true) when your country is bordering on the outright fascist, and has no small presence of Neo-Nazis in it's ranks itself is pretty fucking stupid. Still clinging on to that 2014 era Azov brigade propaganda, are we Rusbot? With all your love of cringe feminized anime, Hollywood and American cartoons, I can't help but think you're just another closeted Westoid. Fucking pathetic.

[@vk-fb4ox]

>Accuses people of following western propaganda. >uses russian propaganda's narrative

[@stank8460]

​@@vk-fb4oxit's a bot man

[@toddfromwork8931]

What century is it again?

[@grisall]

Amazing that Russians have no clue as to what a Nazi is even though they are led by one.