FCAS / SCAF : The Future European Jet ?

What does the future hold for military jets? Stealth, drone swarming, increased autonomy? Joining me today to talk about this is Dr. Ulrike Franke from the ECFR who currently works on an expert panel discussing the use of new technologies in future military systems.
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- Expert -
Dr. Ulrike Franke, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations:
Profile & Publications: ecfr.eu/profile/ulrike_esther...
- Sources & Recommendations -
Elsa Kania, Battlefield singularity : artificial intelligence, military revolution, and China's future military power (2017) availabe at: www.cnas.org/publications/rep...
Paul Scharre, Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War (2018)
US: www.amazon.com/Army-None-Auto...
UK: www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B073VXYD5...
Justin Bronk, FCAS: Is the Franco-German-Spanish Combat Air Programme Really in Trouble? RUSI: 2021 availabe at: rusi.org/commentary/fcas-fran...
Rafael Loss, How Germany’s Greens could spell the end for the Franco-German fighter jet, ECFR: 2021, available at: ecfr.eu/article/how-germanys-...
FCAS / Airbus official website: www.airbus.com/defence/fcas.html
Team Tempest official website: www.raf.mod.uk/what-we-do/tea...
Various visuals by Airbus
- Timecodes -
00:00 - Intro
01:00 - Expert: Dr. Ulrike Franke
01:37 - Capabities we might see in the future
04:40 - Future Combat Air System - What is it going to be?
07:35 - One Europe, Two Systems
10:21 - France vs Germany: Who gets to say what on FCAS
12:15 - Different countries, different demands
14:33 - Drone swarms: overhyped or system to be?
17:57 - Germany: the complex one
21:34 - Recommendations for you
22:56 - Outro
- Audio -
Music and Sfx from Epidemic Sound
#FCAS #MilitaryAviationHistory #Tempest

[@marvinegreen]

Definition of understatement: "...and shows you why multilateral development is a bit difficult..."

[@jhdix6731]

And it wouldn't be getting any better. Multilateral manufacturing isn't much easier, especially the planning of it (Which nations is getting which share of production)?

[@auzor5900]

@@borderreiver1806 that would be USA manufacturing. See F35. Airbus is somewhat supposed to be EU airplane manufacturing umbrella.

[@auzor5900]

@@borderreiver1806 problem is, due to the split of Rafale & Eurofighter, the EU 4.5 planes aren't much cheaper. USA benefits massively from economy of scale, relatively.

[@tfjdfhozs3s849]

@@borderreiver1806 the vast majority of french people will see that as high treason crime and they will be right.

[@dixion1000]

Its difficult but in the end they dont have the choice if they want to be relevant on the world stage. Just look at Airbus.

[@TheQuallsing]

I enjoyed this interwiev format a lot. I feel like any format where a discussion is being held is very enjoyable. Feels like a podcast. Very well done and produced. Thank you and would love to see more of this style.

[@MilitaryAviationHistory]

Thanks very much, happy to hear you enjoyed it!

[@bruh5361]

Dr Franke is co-hosting the Sicherheitshalber Podcast (in German), you should definitely check it out

[@brokenursa9986]

I'm just thinking, even if the German iteration of the drone swarms aren't allowed to be armed, they can still perform tasks to help the core fighter, like cyberwarfare defense, recon, jamming, or simple target saturation. Armed drones can cover the core fighter from enemy planes while the fighter performs CAS, interdiction, or strategic bombing operations, or they could be deployed in a coordinated strike against a team of enemy fighters for air superiority. This system has a lot of potential, even in its infancy. I look forward to seeing where it goes and what it'll be capable of

[@emergingloki]

Plus of course even if unarmed a drone can still be used as a weapon in a suicide role.

[@HingerlAlois]

@@emergingloki Well then it’s armed with a warhead and it’s basically a loitering munition.

[@jensdanbolt6953]

@@emergingloki not against fighters with anything close to current engine technologies. Small and/or affordable engines just don't have the engine performance to make contact with even a 3rd generation jet fighter. It's like asking a group of 5-year old kids to try chasing down a 20-year old in open terrain. No high performance jet engines in small or affordable formats exist, and people have tried for 70 years to make them. It's a challenge of thermodynamics - not a field of science that has seen exponential development in recent years. For this reason, small and/or affordable aircraft are either powered by rockets (low endurance and re-usability) or by low thrust engines. Low thrust, affordable aircraft such as drones can certainly play a role in air combat - bombers and 'AWACS' already do - but not in a kinetic fight against fighters powered by full size jet engines. Modern fighters already consist mostly of a flying engine with some weapon systems and a pilot attached to it. Renaming it to drone and trimming off some subsystems won't make it affordable enough to field in bigger 'swarms' than fighter squadrons already are.

[@jensdanbolt6953]

@@emergingloki if the target is on the ground or is another drone, I agree with you.

[@wheelerthree]

For EWAR, a swarm of drones (even if the swarm was 3) would be awesome. Imaging 1km spacking with reduced cross section aircraft. A threat fires on the main fighter, drone A starts screaming EM loudly to draw the missile to it instead, when the missile expends energy to turn, it shuts off, and drone B starts emitting. Missile loses more energy reaquiring. Missiles lose energy VERY quickly as they typically only accellerate for the first few seconds and then bleed off kinetic energy as they turn. Having to change direction by 20-30 degrees is a vast degradation in range and capability.

[@Tigrisshark]

Again a very nice video with much information to digest. Always a treat to have Dr. Franke to share her insights. I wonder how Germany will keep its Tornados in the air until 2045. It's as if we need a stop-gap replacement to bridge the time until we are done developing the stop-gap replacement. And when we're finally getting the first delivery in 2060 it's probably already outdated. That would be a nice video to explain how during WW2 we had large numbers of different companies develop competitors in every country, while today we have different countries building one plane and needing decades to do so.

[@TysoniusRex]

With your latest videos, you're definitely batting a .1000! This whole discussion of advanced air combat platforms, AI, drone swarms...it's very interesting, but for me very disturbing, as well. I'm not going to pretend to guess at the implications of deploying this technology in future, but de-linking weapons systems from direct human control--there's a potential for terrifying scenarios. Given our current problems with cyber security, how likely is it that these systems could be deployed as intended, vs. disabled remotely or even turned against their operators? Very thought-provoking, as always!

[@MilitaryAviationHistory]

Thanks :) yes I agree, there are definitely a lot of concerns that come with these new technologies, concerns I think that are also shared by experts and those that work in the field. However, different countries chose different red lines for different reasons. More autonomy will come in the future, if not in Western Platforms, certainly in other countries.

[@steveperreira5850]

It is the joke of jokes to think that there is going to be some command fighter jockey controlling swarms of drones from high in the sky. Any dude or dudette hi in the sky over the combat space or even near it is a dead duck in the future. The winners will be the ones who master drones and autonomy quickest and best. Don’t take it from me, I’m just an engineer and a pilot, take it from Elon Musk, A couple of years ago he lectured the dimwits at the US Air Force about this. They were shocked. Dummies are always shocked.

[@kgfalcon9394]

@@steveperreira5850 Honest question then, what happens when war in space begins and nations begin to destroy the infrastructure that's in space? I know the Chinese have worked on kamikaze satellites, but it wont take others long to adjust. How good are those drones and AI systems without that infrastructure? Honest question.

[@rbgerald2469]

@@kgfalcon9394 ...The scenario referenced in the video game Ace Combat 7: Skies Unknown? Since the satellites are gone (caused by a Kessler Syndrome event); the AI controlled drones utilized by the Kingdom of Erusea (a fictional country featured in the game ) did questionable and near extinction strategies just to achieve the objective of winning the war.

[@jhdix6731]

@@kgfalcon9394 Autonomy is only meant for local tactical decisions anyways (e.g. find a place to land before bingo, fly a search pattern, apply countermeasures), they shouldn't change the rules of engagement on their own any more than any human pilot would be allowed to (even less so, as the "self defense" excuse would be a bit watered down). So, just like today, the platform would need a comlink to command most of the time anyways, relayed via other assets within the atmosphere (other planes, UAVs, ships etc), and probably wouldn't actively engage a target without being ordered to. Once that order is given, tactical decisions on how to do so would be autonomous.

[@Aspir3xx]

Belkan Technology is gonna power these drones

[@wheelerthree]

So who is going to power the router off and back on all the time to keep it going? :D

[@usesrnaiyme]

I think we all know it’s the 5G towers with the Microsoft bill gates microchips that power the drones

[@hiddenporcupine932]

Cant wait to see the Arsenal Bird in the coming future.

[@MasouShizuka]

"BOOOOOOOORDERS!!!!"

[@KartikoKurnianto]

And they will use flight data of WomanSlayer69 as basis

[@V3rciS]

Amazing interview. I'm happy to see EU countries pulling resources together and working as a team. I believe EU needs common defense policy and it should cover as many countries as possible.

[@duhni4551]

EU countries do have common defense policy, what EU countries don't have is mandatory military alliance.

[@Zwia.]

We don't have common goals. Germany has shown this by bowing down to Russia while France/UK have been tough towards them over Ukraine. Germany need Russian energy.

[@burt2800]

And here we are

[@6105boe]

@@burt2800 indeed here we are… at least the silver lining, if I dare to call it such, is that with this single act of barbarism the EU has been essentially pushed to more unity.

[@axelscharf2415]

Actually it's a pain . From a german perspective at least. The French want germany to pay and their French company Dassault to build the plane . Not a good deal.

[@jimbenson3926]

Hello you forgot the RAAF's Loyal Wingman drone.Which has already made it's first flight. And anti-drone swarm microwave prototypes are being tested.

[@wizard380]

Dr. Ulrike was great. I am happy to see we have people like her in the foreign council

[@mattilaiho7979]

I'm very excited to see where these drone swarm ideas go in the future, both in terms of air combat and ground support. I hope you will keep up with the videos on this topic as more is learned and the situation develops!

[@donlahey1734]

Always a pleasure to see the past, present and future on your channel! Thanks!

[@grahammutton1964]

Well done in producing a great informative video and a big thankyou to Dr. Franke for her quality input.

[@exiletsj2570]

Great to have such a qualified and respected person in the field, want to to engage with the public on such matters.

[@Cartoonman154]

Thank you for covering this topic and not being a computer-generated video. lol

[@BeKindToBirds]

The computer voice channels are Russian mostly.

[@leandrocosta3709]

That was an excellent interview. Thank you :)

[@ultimaratioregum8153]

The real problem with the FCAS/SCAF program is Germany doesn't have clear military policies. Autonomous drone or not ? Armed drone or not ? US nuclear capability or not ? Carrier compatible or not ? Germany neglected for decades the military department to focus on arms sales while being under the protection of the US (as others european countries). But this US protection come with two prices which is the dependance (hence the lack of global military strategy) and the impossibility to make the european defense system a reality.

[@roberts1938]

What Trump said to Germany that it makes no sense that Germany is not fulfilling its obligations to NATO with appropriate investments, and instead is buying raw materials from Russia, which allocates these funds to armaments and local wars. There is no point in this and protecting NATO is an abuse then.

[@rand0mn0]

It seems to me to be rather challenging to write actionable specifications in the absence of a defined future threat/combat space. Also, "AI" is not even close to being understood, workable, or useful in the scenario that SCAF seems to embody, current advertising fads notwithstanding. It is one thing to have a computer fly a pre-programmed route, or a series of canned patterns. It is quite another to expect a live weapons system to think sufficiently well in a coordinated manner to avoid doing really stupid and deadly things.

[@damedusa5107]

That’s the thing, we have to have these weapons, just in case. But unlikely to be used as major powers avoid fighting. As most fighting is done with a much weaker enemy.

[@mortified776]

I'm glad to see this comment. There's a lot of misconceptions about what machine learning can and cannot do. It alarmed me _over a decade ago_ when I read a British MoD official [hopefully, mis]quoted as saying that they expected the F-35 to be the last manned fighter. If accurate, it reflected a dire conjunction of technological and historical illiteracy. As you point out, even today in 2021 let alone back in the mid-noughts, there is no basis on which to presume an ML/AI system able to take on tasks that complex will even exist within the 2030-40 timeframe. One small and light enough to be carried and cooled within the space, weight and power envelope a cockpit would have taken up would be making yet a further presumption! I really would like to have known whether that anonymous official ever learned about the 1957 Defence White Paper, which cancelled all manned aircraft not already in development on the basis that SAMs and ICBMs made them obsolete.

[@0MoTheG]

@@mortified776 The US Airforce, Navy, DARPA have already flown what you find implausible. What subtask do you think is too difficult? The trouble is something else: Where will the labeled training data come from? Simulations?

[@andymavridis3588]

Mate this is a nice format for more episodes like this! Keep up the good work

[@CannaCJ]

The potential applications in asymmetric warfare are very disturbing. Anglo-Zulu War disturbing.

[@paulslevinsky580]

Zioglobalist - Antivaxxer War

[@angrybirder9983]

@@paulslevinsky580 Sorry what?

[@somethingelse4878]

Or American Indian war, or German European war, Australian emu war...

[@JanoTuotanto]

Anglo-Boer war rather. Like, telephones controlling indirect artillery. The incidences of Anglo-Zulu War went the way they went as it was a pre-telecommunications era conflict. Signals were still transmitted with flags , trumpets and dispatch riders. We are currently witnessing similar tactical revolution as happened 100 years ago with telephones and radios.

[@christopherg2347]

@Pro Tengu I see the crossbow as one of the first attempts to "industrialize" warfare. If you compare it to a (long) bow it is: - More expensive to produce and maintain - Much less expensive to train the shooter ("If you want to train a longbowman, start with his grandfather.") Then the rifles took that over, finally replacing the bowstring with a simple explosion Then automatic rifles went one further, giving single soldiers insane firepower. Drone Swarms would be the next step. It is so much industrialisation, you can directly replace manpower with it. One jet with a drone swarm could have combat potential rivaling a whole airwing run by humans.

[@slartybartfarst55]

Thank you. This was an excellent Video and answered many of my underlying questions. A very good collaboration between yourself and Dr. Ulrike Franke

[@MilitaryAviationHistory]

Wow, thanks so much!

[@b.griffin317]

Another great discussion Chris! I like these additions to the channel. Ulrike is great.

[@MilitaryAviationHistory]

Much appreciated!

[@davidjames1692]

Doesn't matter the topic.. always enjoyable having intelligent and engaged people speaking on it.. thank you!

[@DirtyHairy1]

Wow, very cool, I was not aware of these developments. Thanks!

[@MilitaryAviationHistory]

Happy to hear we put them on your scopes :)

[@davidmeek8017]

Very well done; please keep them coming! Aloha

[@clydecessna737]

We have had a naval and military swarm weapon with some autonomy before; it is called a "mine".

[@whocares427]

We had one even before that. It's called a "rifleman"

[@petriew2018]

and 700 years after we started using them, we still haven't come to a clear consensus on the morality of such things....

[@praetor678]

And the thing to remember above all with mines is: "Mines have NO friends."

[@HappyDuude]

Great interview, thanks for posting! Drone swarms to see a resurgence of large air burst munitions.

[@Leptospirosi]

There is very sour taste in Italy versus Germany about technological cooperation: Italy knows it can work fine with France (Fremm/Horizon) or UK (leonardo being Alenia/BAe), but Germany always forced thing its own way disregarding the requirements of other partners. Typhoon was a very brutal wake up in this regard: Italy needed a fighter plane FAST because they could not service the F104 further in time but Germany, having just received a full complement of Mig 29, decided to have the whole Typhoon program revised to "cut down costs"... and after realizing (oh the surprise!) 2 years later that there was nothing cuttable, they allowed the plane to go back as envisioned. This nonsense delay prolonged the Typhoon deployment for more then 5 years and with derived costs noticeably increased for every nation involved on the initial forecasts; this waste of time also allowed Rafale, also EADS, to get a good headstart on the international market, presenting itself as a more mature alternative. The inability to keep the F104 in service, forced the AMI to loan Torando F3 and F16 as a stop gap, including Skyflash they did not need at cost of billions of Euros which could be better spent somewhere else, while the same delay allowed German to postpone the intended acquisition due to Cold war ending and using the "free" Mig 29 to fill the gap. Italy and Germany are main rivals on the international market, with Leonardo and EADS/Airbuss fighting in the same niche. Germany religiously avoids anything from Leonardo, something not initially true the other way (NH90), creating parallel competing programs, like the Tiger Helicopter and the C295. No surprise Italy bailed out from the A400 program and bought more C130 instead. As for the Type212 program, it was an necessary evil due to problems in Italian own design, but then the MMI proceeded with the NFS development on its own. Germany Navy in the meantime has no Italian developed (not even EADS partecipated) equipment worth mentioning in service. I don't see Italy willing to join an European program with Airbuss again, probably preferring to buy USA, should the Tempest program hit development problems.

[@AR-GuidesAndMore]

Germany is run by very strange people these days. Well... looking back it allways was, except for the time under Bismarck. 😅

[@emergingloki]

I'm surprised that there was no mention of the Australian Loyal Wingman program, a similar program, already flying prototypes, designed to work with 4th/5th gen aircraft.

[@jake_]

ECFR = European Council on Foreign Relations. It's a European think tank. They are focusing on European foreign and security policy. So it's only natural that they are interested in European projects and how these can be integrated iinto the NATO framework..

[@positroll7870]

Actually, one argument on the side of the proponents of an SuperHornet procurement for Germany is that it could be used to start testing wingman units ahead of time, developing doctrine and identifying problems - provided Boeing gets it stuff togerther as planned.

[@judithflow3131]

@@positroll7870 I'm not sure Boeing would want to sell its SuperHornet as a testbed like that. Problems with industrial espionage, and they'd probably also prefer to sell at least 30 of these SuperHornets + swarm in one order, instead of just 2 or 3.

[@positroll7870]

@@judithflow3131 Germany is looking at 30 sh and another 15 growlers. Not as a testbed for drones, mainly, but to replace the tornado id's and ecr. Big enough an order imo to convince Boeing to add in half a dozen wingmen if ger ponies up the cash for them.

[@mostevil1082]

@@jake_ parochial response, and viewpoint for a think tank with this remit.

[@asfinland]

The Tempest and the SCAF are not the same plane concept: the Tempest is a complement of the F-35, designed to be cheaper and therefore advanced but not "baroque"; the SCAF is a competitor/substitute of the F-35, so must try to get closer in capabilities and therefore it will be much more expensive and over budget. The Tempest is an open architecture platform, customers will be able to choose their own systems, engines, etc... even the size of the plane, there will not be two equal Tempest; the SCAF is a closed platform, with 2 SCAF models: SCAF and Naval SCAF. And about autonomy, it is a key element: In the future battlefield, EW will be widespread, jamming, signal spoofing, etc..., if the link between the operator and the drone is somehow lost the drone has to be able of completing the mission on its own, even if that mission is intended to destroy an objective and therefore, there will be casualties.

[@petrosdorizas6814]

Very interesting and having a knowledgeable expert like Dr. Franke definitely offers very interesting insights. I won't lie, when the announcements for FCAS and Tempest first came out and I saw that they were international partnerships, I immediately thought it wouldn't be successful, at least in these forms. And combined with the other videos on Germany's new aircraft requirements, it really puts into perspective what an effect being part of nuclear sharing and relying on American nukes has on German procurement. Maybe the solution would be to just stop being part of that, but I'm sure we're going to have a video on the German nuclear debate in the future anyway.

[@MilitaryAviationHistory]

Thanks Petros, it'll be interesting to see where Tempest and FCAS/SCAF will be going in the future, it'll be a rocky road.

[@brianfarmer858]

Great video. I am glad I came across it.

[@carlosroberts9233]

Congretulations for the video!! Very good !! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

[@heinrichwonders8861]

If you get a crystal ball always cover it with a cloth when not using it! Otherwise it might catch the sunlight and burn your house down!

[@Desire123ification]

Great Interview!

[@THEALKYL]

I supscribed for this kind of content in particular: recent history (e.g. Cold War) , the current systems and future systems are more relevant then the WW2 content to me personally. I would love a series about the air operations of Desert Storm, the Balkan wars, Operation Iraqi Freedom or ISAF.

[@OttomanDrifter91]

Great inteview!

[@thalamay]

I‘m pretty sure there will be ways around the armed drone issue. If the human pilot selects the target, it’s really no different from a guided rocket in terms of ethics. Of course this would introduce the weak point of the human steered aircraft which would draw all the enemy fire in order to take out the entire swarm with one kill. But it’s still better than nothing and there are always ways to mitigate that issue. As for drones as fighters, I think there is even more potential than merely stealth. You can basically have unlimited g-loads as long as the structural integrity of the drone holds up, meaning that they could employ way more radical manoeuvres either to evade fire or to get a target into their crosshairs since there’s no pilot who could black out.

[@SHINAHO]

Top class interview!

[@tonyhawk94]

The FCAS / SCAF project is far from being set in stone. A recent agreement was voted in Bundestag however to this day no agreement was passed about intellectual property between Dassault et Airbus Defence and Space, it's a very very sensitive issue and the CEO of Dassault made it clear that he won't change his position on the subject and would rather develop a future combat system with 100% French firms... I'm almost sure it will end up like the eurofighter project. Germany, Spain and maybe other will have theirs and France will go alone based on the common developments previously made.

[@augustiner3821]

that's unfortunately possible. And at the end France gets less sophisticated solution, butv t's national of course.

[@RogerSanGabriel]

Love your channel I just subbed.

[@katafrakt33]

I see Ulrike Franke I tap thumb up automaticly. She really impresses me.

[@cannonfodder4376]

Yet another superlative interview Bis.

[@MilitaryAviationHistory]

Thanks!

[@ThePinkus]

Excellent!

[@shankshoanatlprez4453]

I'm American love fighter jets since childhood as my Dad was stationed at Norfolk Virginia which is where ALL of the Carriers are stationed when in port on a 6 month rotation. So every day was an air show. But the Tempest presentation BLEW ME AWAY! The F-35 is&ALWAYS will be a failure. Anything that costs $36K per flight hour is a waste&tribute to the Militarized Industrial Complex that America has been since WWII. There's NO need for it any longer&we must rethink how much we spend on whatever the DOD dangles before Congress, which usually amounts to empty promises while it's almost always a certainty that those projects will undoubtedly go over budget. It's crazy that we spend 56% of our annual GDP on Defense! Hopefully the Tempest will actually be outsourced here? But I sincerely doubt it for we as a Nation regrettably have too much pride. Not only is the Tempest absolutely beautiful, but the energy return system looks to be an innovation that could revolutionize the industry, saving on fuel while reducing the overall heat signature at the same time. Look forward to seein her fly at airshows asap!

[@duhni4551]

I don't understand why USA would pay so much per hour to fly it while Finland for example calculated it is cheaper to fly than Gripen. Norway pays 11 000 / hour flying it. So someone is sucking the money, but it is not the F-35

[@marcusnichols5595]

Drones don't necessarily have to be armed or even organised in self-aware swarms to be effective, they have value if they present as warplanes. The (relatively) recent IAF missions where opponents activated and engaged their air defense assets to target drone incursions (that preceded the actual raids) simultaneously depleted their firepower, whilst revealing their locations and capabilities. Drones used as dummies and decoys can distract and degrade and opponent, whilst revealing their capability.

[@steveperreira5850]

Yes Marcus, that has been demonstrated decades ago, not just recently, so what is taking so long to get more drones, especially in the combat role. ..... could it be that grounded pilots doing menial jobs Will have a lot harder time getting dates with hot chicks. I can assure you it comes down to that, I am a military veteran also, also a pilot (private), also an aerospace design engineer, also formerly married to a RAF officer, female, and she very attractive, and I have the entire lowdown on how the system works.

[@ashtiboy]

well that before the usa uses lasers that are powerd by there ships nuclear reactors to fry the drones with new laser cwis weapons the new agis crusers/ laser hardpoint pod aircafted monuted weapons that aslo have don't run out of ammo noware as fast as a gul-8 gatling gun ciwis do. in fact the usa is testing and makeing laser cwis that are powerd by the ships hundread MW nuclear reator that don't run out of ammo to the point that defntly makes decoy drones useless! bscly a small amonut of drones will just not work! you need a alrge amunt of actack kamakisde explasvoe cruse missle seath drones to over whem something like that! but even still thats after they have to adviod geting shot down by long range rail gun anti ship guns that have so much range and high fire rate that make the anti ship rail guns also work very well as a long range anti air area of denanal waepon that can shoot down both aircat flying drones and cruse missles as well and if the usa fited a llarge idiho class battle ships with all rail guns and lasers powsed by a large nuclear reactor then the battleships will beome the new anti air and lomnge range area of senal weaposn platform

[@ashtiboy]

plus a rail gun fired from orbit bascly would be far more powerfull and be alot less harmful to the evement at the same time! plus if you don't want to use a nuke but still need the power of one a M.I.R.V gravity kentict impact slug cluser icbm warhead just made of titatum rods would work alot better and far cheaper then a snigle nukear war head while also bascly not shootable in the thremal stage beacsue it needs no gidanse or explosvie charges to blow up whole entire citys or ground bases bescue the POWER OF GRAVITY,fraction, and the covfation of matter and energy itelf as the waepon of mass destruction with no weapon grade nukear metteral requred! when a realy fast moveing large steel or ittieum rod in a sub orbital tectroty would be all you need for a WMD at the meunum! if nukear weapons are not used any more wont stop the exeascte of one kind of ver yeasy and simple WMD thats just a big stel gruop of rods just fired from a ICBM in a sub obirtal tectreoy! these are just as deangrous if not more dagrous then cemcal biolagcia or nukear WMD but with the alot less cost and tech needed to make them!

[@IonoTheFanatics]

​ @ashtiboy not actually practical at the moment and incidentally... railguns project are on ice for USN as currently they do not see a reasonable return of investment in the immediate future especially given their primary focus right now is PLA Navy... and they NEED a LOT of new anti ship missiles to replace their outdated harpoons, as well as new hull to not just keep their fleet viable in a potential conflict against PLA Navy ships (which unlike past opponents, actually pose real threat). Make no mistake... laser as CIWS IS still a goal they aim for. But that WILL NOT make drones or any aircraft obsolete because even at their projected end game for the megawatt class laser... they STILL function as point defense. In case the point is missed there... they still essentially are point blank short range defense. A drone fleet essentially can still loiter outside the effective range of the laser, and saturate the defense with standoff range weapon... which is exactly what we are already doing with standard operation of manned aircraft against warships. A laser based CIWS potentially can be more effective than typical CIWS for defending the ship against such munitions (assuming USN's megawatt class laser is complete) but that's under the ASSUMPTION that the missile manufacturer does not adapt against such weapon, because we DO have such technology... including ablative material that can withstand extreme heat for short period of time (which will make the prospect of destroying them with laser significantly harder) currently there's no real need for such material usage in weapons because we don't have a laser powerful enough to do it... But once such laser do materialize... countermeasures against it like using such ablative material then becomes sensible to use and can be expected to start appearing.

[@IonoTheFanatics]

@@ashtiboy as for orbital weaponry... this is also not practical in the foreseeable future at least until the prospect of pushing heavy materials into orbit becomes SUBSTANTIALLY cheaper, perhaps a decade or so after ships like Space X's Starship fleet are operational.. Because a lot of ppl don't realize that orbital weapon platform... is not just something that needs to be pushed into orbit... Like satellite... they have to be either maintained to keep them functional... Or... decommissioned within relatively short time especially if they are orbiting in the EXTREMELY packed low earth orbit. Both are incredibly expensive especially at the moment where it still cost literally thousands of dollars to lift a single kg of materials into orbit. This is in part why not many are that keen on the prospect of such weapon... Plus... with the more recent advance in weapons like hypersonic missiles... the primary advantage of orbital weapon which are the speed to drop ordnance on target and difficulty to intercept such ordnance... have become partially moot. A ground based weapon is cheaper to not just build but more importantly to MAINTAIN by orders of magnitude that most army will look at the price tag for orbital weapon... and just turn to hypersonic missiles which can provide time on target and resistance to interception as a far more attractive option.

[@thebigone6071]

Chris = the future of military aviation history!!! You da 🐐 Chris!!!!

[@CharliMorganMusic]

Very interesting interview

[@disekjoumoer]

Thanks again for yet another absolutely brilliant video. I think the problems with aircraft of the future will only increase. The costs are so high for weapons that are rarely used and which face ever increasing opposition in terms of missile defences that drones might become the only viable way to actually do any aerial attacks. At the same time, cyber warfare is also increasing exponentially. In the end, the guy who suggested the BF-109 might have the only practical solution.

[@donethat6147]

By 2045 this nice french-german-spanish project might definitely be obsolete as swarm attacks for the most part would be neutralized by hi energy weapons.

[@JuanRodriguez-km9hl]

Great video

[@antonytheocharidis9576]

No Ace Combat references in the comments. I'm so disheartened... Excellent video though Bis

[@figo3554]

Second one I found is you.

[@lavrentivs9891]

Early in the video I got a mental image of old soviet style saturation attacks against US carrier groups, but x20 with drones complementing the low level attack aircraft. That type of attack would probably become rather commonplace if you start to slave a number of drones to each operating aircraft.

[@steveperreira5850]

Any big targets are doomed in the future due to swarms, even small targets, There should never be another aircraft carrier ever made, not of the conventional super carrier. They are super doomed. Absolutely doomed.

[@lavrentivs9891]

@@steveperreira5850 There will probably be an increase in SAM and AAA, as well as additional sceening ships. But at some point it will become both operationally and economically unviable to field large surface fleets. It makes me wonder if we see the same type of progress under water as well, with drone mini-submarines.

[@petersouthernboy6327]

@@steveperreira5850 - tell us how any number of drones with 100 pound warheads can sink an 85,000 ton armored carrier. Please. 🙄 Bigger UAV’s with bigger payloads will be vulnerable to SAMs, CIWS, and directed energy weapons

[@moonbear2130]

@@petersouthernboy6327 yes, I was gonna say the same way drones may negate big expensive air defenses in the future so too comparatively low cost energy/laser weapons (low cost to traditional air defenses) may negate drones in the future

[@petersouthernboy6327]

@@moonbear2130 - without *nuclear weapons* it would be impossible for drones to sink an 85,000 ton armored super carrier. Look no further than the RIMPAC SINKEX for empirical evidence about how much ordnance it takes !

[@GreenBlueWalkthrough]

The main issue with armed drone swarms for me is... how are they better than missiles? What kind of weapons could they be armed with to make them more than flying bombs?

[@ultimaratioregum8153]

Missiles are really expensive, if it is destroyed, the task won't be done, and missiles are one use only. Drone swarm are more resistant to counter measure, can be recovered and less expensive (it depends of the drone of course). Also, missiles won't be discarded, drones are a complement. Missiles will still be caried by the main aircraft. The main purpose is to avoid losing human and complex systems by replacing the front line with drones.

[@GreenBlueWalkthrough]

@@ultimaratioregum8153 Same or worse is true for purpose-built drones because they are mini planes that have to have almost the same capabilities of the carrier aircraft... If you mean a drone used in the recent Armenian/argbadon conflict then yes strapping a bomb to an amazon drone and sending it in is cheaper than a missile. However, what the US and the EU are talking about is not that. They are bigger and equipped with the latest tech so they are not going to be cheap. As they want them to be a threat to another plane which means they have to be supersonic, can stay in the air more than 10 minutes, and be armed with at least one of these things a gun of at least .50 calibers, a few small missiles, or a laser. And the better armed the drone is the less arms the carrier aircraft can carry. now if you just want a little annoying thing and only give it to one or two planes that fine but don't expect it to do much then go pew pew and get shot at. However, that would be really useful in fighting other stealth aircraft where more radars/eyes the better and failing that there'll need to dogfight each other to kill each other. Don't get me wrong drone swarms are useful as Iran showed when they light up the Saudi oil fields so for attack or defense. Or carried by a strategic bomber, airship etc. On a fighter though with modern tech? Not really other then support which you don't need to be armed for.

[@ultimaratioregum8153]

@@GreenBlueWalkthrough I didn't said that drones will replace missiles. They have common usability domain but not only. If we are talking about mini jet drone there is the human factor to take account of. Occidental countries are reluctant to human losses and the ability to extend the range of weapons by using drones is an ability useful for these countries.

[@thethirdman225]

Great to get away from the same old capability arguments. Excellent. Very informative.

[@TheStugbit]

AIP submarine aircraft-carrier carrying silent, stealth drones.

[@tommihommi1]

what is a cruise missile or a torpedo if not a fast one-way drone :D

[@TheStugbit]

@@tommihommi1 If I were in charge of my country's defense I would have a look into these.

[@nomar5spaulding]

Do you mean the glorious Union of Yuktobanian Republics Navy submarine Scinfaxi?

[@TheStugbit]

@@nomar5spaulding No, I mean the Main Democratic Republic of the Brazilian Outback: Goiáz

[@jb76489]

That sounds like a sub with torpedoes/cruise missiles with more steps

[@jacksavage4098]

Love the history but this really great. More coming?

[@macattackmicmac]

One thing in to keep in mind, especially with international cooperation, is that while the new developments might not create a viable aircraft, the learnings and technology developed over the course of it, will advance the follow on project to such a significant extent that this next project will likely be both functional and cutting edge.

[@T33K3SS3LCH3N]

7:15 "If you combine everything, you are only as strong as your weakest link" - reminds me of some ideas on distributed computing with "voting systems". Just like we humans have to evaluate the trustworthiness of a source, so should a computer in a network. The "swarm" should essentially observe whether its inputs and communications are actually reliable, and then possibly "vote out" unreliable agents and implausible information. So even if a part gets hacked, or a sensor is defect, the rest of the swarm could react to this and limit the loss to the directly compromised agent.

[@feedingravens]

I heard of a concept for establishing a battleground communication network where you simply drop hundreds or thousands of small transmitters over the battlefield, that during their fall establish a communications network between each other and the ground. Such a network is indestructible, taking out a few of these transmitters does not change a thing. Same principle that the predecessor of the Internet, the Arpanet, had as concept. Take away the fundamental weak spot of a network, the central server where all connections go to, and instead give each point the capability to route his connection over any path it finds, all are equal.

[@sicbb]

Where do you get those awesome planes in the background at 0:12?

[@lcoudeur]

On the naval version, Looking at the Rafale and it's Success at creating a naval aircraft+ landbase, I don't think reservations are in order.

[@5555petros]

The fact the F-22 was left to it's fate and will not be updated further hurts me badly.

[@MrArgus11111]

It's already outdated and the 6th generation fighter is already flying. On top of it being hideously expensive to operate.

[@Idahoguy10157]

@@MrArgus11111 …. The US Congress thru the F-22 program under a bus long ago

[@MrArgus11111]

@@Idahoguy10157 Select members of Congress have access to defense information we do not. Which is terrifying because it's congress but that's the way it is.

[@Idahoguy10157]

@@MrArgus11111 …. Congress wouldn’t allow allies to buy the F-22. Then shut down F-22 production early. The F-22 was orphaned

[@beaverchicken]

@@MrArgus11111 If it's outdated then what is the F-15? Still in service and doing amazingly

[@redtsar]

So Ace Combat 07 isn’t that far off on the idea of future warfare?

[@verticalflyingb737]

I was looking for this comment

[@Chavylifts]

Hi Bismarck. Love the accent. You and Bo should do a k4 video or 262 video.

[@davidwoods1188]

I just watched a video of you playing IL2 (from 2014) and am surprised to see aircraft knowledge and no games bamboozled me good 🤣🤣🤣 Other content is good though no bad vibes

[@TotalRookie_LV]

I'm sort of parted myself on whether there should be separate projects or only one common product, as it sure is cheaper not to spread out, but to make everyone cooperate, however, having more than one also makes sense - "don't put all eggs in the same basket", if one project has shortcomings, maybe the other will not, besides some competition should be healthy.

[@thomashimstreet3019]

Elements of new hardware need to access/operate in all five warfighting domains, unless there is a sixth coming. Cooperative targeting and cooperative engagement are hot topics and fantastic stock tips. Good luck out there.

[@bconneau658]

12:30 good point, much like rafale, scaf for us has to be flattop capable and suited for nuclear penetration, that's pretty hard on design constraints

[@scratchy996]

Why not a plane that could do it all ? It surely won't be a $1.6 trillion clusterfuck like the F-35...

[@scratchy996]

@@biodidu25 Rafale isn't stealth.

[@scratchy996]

@@biodidu25 The Rafale doesn't have VTOL capabilities.

[@minewolf3605]

@@scratchy996 VTOL is dead weight

[@quadri31]

the leopard 2 with the leclerc turret looks cool but also cursed

[@GeorgeMamaladze]

Would be nice to hear more about defense systems against drones or any autonomous aircrafts having bird size radar signatures.

[@duhni4551]

The radio waves them selves makes it quite easy, all you have to do is send lots of scramble in the air and they are done. This is why drones won't replace manned jets before AI is far enough to replace human pilot. This is how Iran got hold of US. drone for example, cheap and effective.

[@arthurwright8827]

Looking forward to the day when a video turns up comparing actual aircraft, built in sufficient numbers to make up an actual squadron, are compared to the F-35 & F-22. It would be great if that could happen before the American jets are retired!

[@dreaminknight]

USAF NGAD and USN NGAD are in development.

[@kineticdeath]

RAAF and Boeing australia are working on the Loyal Wingman thing which is drones that fly alongside manned aircraft

[@tubelitrax]

Now the topics are to be seen in a whole new light. F35 is coming to Germany which affects the SCAF-Dev concerning wether it could carry B61 or not. We get (possibly) armed drones from Israel, which may also affect the drones-component of the SCAF program. Very good and competent Interview.

[@emhyrvaremreis4540]

Absolutely not 35 F-35 fighter jets that don't even replace the EF but only the tornadoes in Büchel will not threaten FCAS. In addition, the EF will be further developed for ECR and thus strengthen FCAS. The Bundeswehr has drones from Israel for years and only the respective armament will come. The contracts for Male Rpas were already signed upon the announcement of the 100 billion that FCAS will also secure.

[@retepeyahaled2961]

When I think of the way the drones decided the recent conflict about Nagorno Karabach, I wonder if this project planned for 2040 is not waaaaay too late to keep us safe in the mean time....

[@spartanalex9006]

I don't think they'll ever become truly outdated, they're just going to be changing roles.

[@ycplum7062]

Having the drone operator nearby means common is faster and more difficult to jam. What I really want to know is whether the cupholders will be refrigerated. jkg

[@jp-ty1vd]

Drone swarms: 1. Will they be able to have "all weather" flight capability for rain or low ceilings? What about sand clouds? 2. What about wind? I don't see even 5 or 10 lb drones "swarming" or maintaining any type of coordination efficacy when they encounter 10-40 mph winds.

[@replicant97]

This one is quite beautiful to look at.

[@tomstepanowicz6191]

Looking at future autonomous aircraft and deference systems, Terminator 2 Judgment Day comes to mind: Skynet, Cyberdyne Systems, and SAC-NORAD.

[@nsatoday]

I think it’s very interesting. The B-61,12 is a thing. I can understand the technology transfer risks. I think the USAF would allow German engineers to oversee it to keep them in the program. Honestly, America has made up for many NATO countries not meeting their obligations concerning defense. It seems strange that Germany seems to be allowing so many holes in capability in its armed services. While the USSR is gone, Russia has invaded some countries recently and is trying to restart the Cold War. China is building a capability and bullying who it can while it waits to be able to challenge the US and Allie’s toe to toe sometime in the future in Asia. Much like Soviet Russia annexed a lot of European countries after WW2.

[@bg24955]

Drones carrying cluster munitions can achieve thermobaric weapon effect both in offense and in defense. I’m thinking about the second pilot of J20 twin seater. He is the weapon operator.

[@gabrielpalileo3294]

FCAS is giving me star wars vibes. Expensive fighters (Republic starfighters) and cheaper, mass swarms of drones (Seperatist droids).

[@shooter2055]

A Luftwaffe Oberst I once worked with stated the "correct" definition of NATO: No Action, Talk Only. Best luck to the Doctor but USAF publicly announced existence of NGAD fighter prototypes doing pre-flight tests. Now. Not in 2040. F-22 will not be updated because of confidence that NGAD fighter will be ready at near-term. I have admired F-22 but to know that something significantly better is "just around the corner" does cause excitement!

[@tomk3732]

Many nations just skipped 5th gen stuff. F-22 is not updated as there is no easy way to update it. There is no space. Its like MiG-21 - there is simply no space in airframe for better radar. F-22 simply was not designed with lots of room for updates.

[@petriew2018]

just gonna point out that when you translate government speak to english, 'just around the corner' could very well mean 2040....

[@blegi1245]

@@tomk3732 F-22 is highly integrated and it was made in small numbers. There is no piecemeal way to update the electronic systems and designing and fielding a completely new integrated system for a fleet of under 200 aircraft doesn't pass financial scrutiny.

[@CasualClinkz]

Id find it cool if those drone swarms could jam radars so the new fighter dors not need to be stealthy as an f22 as the radar is blocked by the drones and therefore can reach target areas quickly and undetected. Thoughts?

[@bconneau658]

16:50 SS-N-19 comes to mind. I'd really like to know what the russians are coming up with in this field, they've been on the subject foe so long

[@mikael5938]

they already have drones flying with new su 57, they are about 10-15 years ahead of EU talking projects.

[@andrewardron1942]

Su57 that crash’s and has 1 production unit and the mig drone is basically remote control plane, very little intelligence

[@Badger13x]

' We generally do not sell arms to anyone ' Britain laughs and opens up its arm stalls.

[@MinecraftMasterNo1]

Have you seen the price of an H&K product? More like we don't sell because nobody buys lmao

[@blegi1245]

@@MinecraftMasterNo1 germany places insane conditions on defence exports. Turkey for example was not supposed to use their used leopard 2's on the asian side of the country. France on the other hand sells anything to anyone as long as their checks clear and they are not waging war on france or french interests and allies.

[@aboomination897]

germany is the 4th largest arms dealer

[@PSC4.1]

What she said is exactly what I have been saying for a long time about drones, they become a cyber risk because they can be hacked.

[@peceed]

Future systems will be provably hack-proof.

[@MrDoctorCrow]

All I know is that if you stick with Trigger you'll make it.

[@figo3554]

I just completed the campaign, was looking for other men of culture.

[@MrDoctorCrow]

@@figo3554 Belka did nothing wrong

[@figo3554]

@@MrDoctorCrow *inhales* REEEEEEEEEE

[@somethingelse4878]

A good drone and ethical film is Eye in the Sky

[@CosmicValkyrie]

I'm just curious but how good is flak cannon vs drone swarms?

[@jonocc5548]

Where did you get your models from, they look like a nice size, the Super Hornet looks awesome

[@firstduckofwellington6889]

check his prior videos. He got sponsored by them at least once.

[@MilitaryAviationHistory]

Gifts and purchases - I am currently partnered with Air Models and they have a fine selection here airmodels.net/?aff=144

[@willowhubert8181]

Interesting to see what the EU countries and the UK are doing with their technology! Make sure to make it compatible with US technology so we can link up like with the F-35 system!

[@01Bouwhuis]

Hmmzz it is already there... link 22....

[@positroll7870]

Nah, the Europeans will do their best to make it ITAR free. Because ITAR is a damn pain in the backside ...

[@USandGlobal]

@@positroll7870 yes but we both know they can’t to many countries involved and some more close to the US than others

[@positroll7870]

@@USandGlobal Ger, Fra, Esp will do it, imO. UK, if they go forward with Tempest with Italy, wont.

[@piwi2005]

Obviously, nuclear capabilities is a must have on the french side. So this question is settled, either FCAS/SCAF will have it, or it won't exist. On the aircraft carrier, because of the Rafale, Frenchs might not require it, or just ask for small constraints on the main version so that they can build a second version in small number for their carriers. After all they already did that for the Rafale.

[@JamesCalbraith]

So which generation will be transforming into mechas?

[@ally_crawford]

Very interesting, and slightly scary!

[@lqr824]

Gosh, I would HOPE it's better than the F-35, given that the F-35 first flew in 2006 and FCAS won't fly the first time until 21 years after that.

[@neurofiedyamato8763]

The inter-communicating technology already exist with commercial quadcopters and even in missiles as old as the 'Granit' but also on newer missiles too. The Granit had a communicating system that coordinated a "flight" of missiles where one pops up to guide the others to target like a AWACS and gets replaced if shot down. They can coordinate, differentiate, and switch targets. It did requrie pre-programmed targets and relied on data links rather than true AI technology. But in effect, we have the technlogy, although fairly primitive ocmpared to the proposed idea. Regardless current existing drones are overrated by the media. They have a huge potential, but everyone screaming how manned fighters and tanks are obsolete is being lied to by the media. Current existing drones act no differently than traditional manned aircraft. It is a trade off between remotely controlled vs manned aircraft. And in regards to tanks, they weren't obsolete 50 years ago, they aren't obsolete now. Maybe in the future when combat drones mature some more, then a reevaluation is warranted but the current hype is unfounded. Worthy of investment, but no need to hype the weapon system as it stands now. As for FCAS and Tempest... They won't enter service and I'm 90% sure. In 20 years time, technology will outpace it so much. They are also VERY ambitious and have very little clue who they will face and what they will face. It is going to get canceled halfway through because it is directionless other than cramming as much technology in to it as possible. it is a glorified technology demonstrator aircraft. The benefit of this is that the lessons learned and technology developed will be applied on the next program that will see service. But FCAS and Tempest? Probably not unless it gets scaled back dramatically.

[@tomk3732]

Spot on. Current drones are just cheap way to kill terrorists. Imagine the cost if you fly F-16. Newer drones just about to enter are all stealth deep penetration drones. Instead killing terrorists they will try to kill enemy air defenses / high value targets.

[@ineednochannelyoutube5384]

The interesting thing about that is that the Shipwreck is ancient. It seems for thd past 30 years aircraft development has not done as well as it couldve.

[@tomk3732]

@@ineednochannelyoutube5384 Problem is exponential rise in costs & no war.

[@roberts1938]

You are absolutely right. The technological race is not about loading the equipment with masses of electronics and systems that make the project extremely expensive and, in addition, susceptible to interference. The trick is to identify your enemy, learn about their weapons and tactics, and hit them faster and more efficiently. And who is our enemy today? US president hugs tehe Putin and calls him Killer, but to be translated later in this sense is he a the Hollywood handsome guy. What enemy today is the Communist China? With which multinationals corporations are doing unimaginable business and they will not give up on it?

[@tonyhawk94]

100% true

[@johnqpublic2718]

When do we get the DCS upgrade?

[@johnqpublic2718]

Drone swarm expansion pack

[@Betterhose]

Ulrike Franke @Sicherheitshalber Big Fan

[@556MSL]

That artist’s rendering definitely looks cooler.