Mindscape 285 | Nate Silver on Prediction, Risk, and Rationality

[@dannymac6368]

I predict I will enjoy this discussion thoroughly. 🤗

[@willwcbb]

I predict you were right

[@willwcbb]

Sean Carroll is the ultimate ninja, capable of both extreme stealth and ultimate combat

[@willwcbb]

True

[@dang495]

Given infinite parallel words your assertions are guaranteed in at least one of them.

[@jeffmoscaritolo6426]

"Thirty percent chances happen all the time." A brilliant sentence. (He was obviously being figurative here; I'm not being sarcastic or trying to criticize here. I literally love this sentence.)

[@csours]

Reminds me of Kahneman and Tversky's work - people are more likely to take risks for loss than for gain - that is, they are more willing to accept lower than EV for a sure thing when it feels like a gain, but are willing to gamble for EV when it feels like a loss. I'm sure I'm mangling the explanation, but you can look it up. This also reminded me Haidt's 'Righteous Mind' - it took me a couple weeks to read that book, because it took me that long to deal with how it made me feel. I feel that the mind has a very strong preference for narrative over facts. I feel that it is difficult to maintain empathy with people who continue to believe stupid narratives. I feel that we really have to work on this (in all it's dimensions) if we want to advance humanity.

i thought i might be behind a flush - not upset it was true, was upset it was only 6 high,.

[@tonybowen455]

About 19:45 in, already so good. Just hilarious hearing about Silver bluffing his friend here.

so who should I vote for

[@m3morizes]

Wow! Who would've guessed Sean would have Nate Bronze on so close to the election? Always great guests!

[@ManDuderGuy]

More liek nate conglomerate dust, heyo!!!

[@carlosfierro3302]

intuition in poker, is it real and what is it?

[@ottofrank3445]

Hi Sean, please make an interview with Lee Cronin, the Regis Professor of Chemistry at the University of Glasgow! PLEASE!

[@winryanYouTube]

Loved this one!

[@expchrist]

awesome podcast

[@coreyander286]

I think it's misleading to describe the River as if it were a shiny new thing. People have been aware of the River since it caused the 2008 recession, just back then they were known as "the Quants". I think there's a failure to decouple Silver's portrait of the River from advocacy for the River; not a decoupling failure on my part as a listener, but a decoupling failure on Silver's part as a communicator.

[@kreuzritter7734]

No risks, think of a save way. Maybe reverseingeniering the data we have.

[@andybandyb]

It’s fascinating that these folks haven’t figured out that this stuff is not a moral system to prescribe for one person, it’s a description of how populations solve problems. EAs as a group are Silicon Valley centered bc they have the MONEY to spend on discrete values. Everyone else does their part for the issues they can afford to help and then it looks like EA pop wide

[@OBGynKenobi]

You're ALL wrong!! The greatest predictor that ever lived says he will win , he's right because his uncle is from MIT and he's very smart. Tremendous!

[@kroyhevia]

Today is a mindcape! New branding lol Jk.. enjoying this episode though!

[@guestgreenstein4726]

How do you guys not discuss prediction markets at all? What did Nate do differently that made everyone else underestimate's Trump's chance in 2016?

[@jayvincent1865]

He was one of the few people who foresaw the ( Religious ) factor.. Most people totally overlooked the ( following ) . Delegates or Electors support whoever pays. In 2016 the Koch brothers paid...

[@Karen3000fklyfsxntrllythobing]

The Devil lives on the river 🤑

[@mrglassscience]

While I do find a lot of this very interesting, as soon as I hear people talk about IQ I stop listening. It's a vague metric that is mostly used by people who are trying to justify their own feeling of superiority; I deserve the things I have because I'm "smart" and here look I have a number to make it look scientific. These people who live on the "river" definitely understand statistics and that is worth something, but they drastically underestimate their own shortcomings as well.

[@Karen3000fklyfsxntrllythobing]

I wish Gaia would put a russian roulette in your snake oil every time you say EA

[@life42theuniverse]

If we all had 150 iq... we would have 100 iq.

[@mjja00]

I could say that an event with probability of 0.01 happens 1% of the time and not 'all the time'.

[@MNbenMN]

If 100 (or more) trials are constantly happening in parallel, then the 0.01 probability event is practically happening all the time.

[@kreuzritter7734]

Infinity is infinity becouse you have 0 control over it because it's infinite! 🫡