MINI-LESSON 8: Power Laws (maximally simplified)

  Рет қаралды 31,658

N N Taleb's Probability Moocs

N N Taleb's Probability Moocs

3 жыл бұрын

Power laws, extremely simplified.

Пікірлер: 111
@periklismylonas4831
@periklismylonas4831 3 жыл бұрын
"You live longer if you don't hang around economists" xD
@Geroscientist
@Geroscientist 3 жыл бұрын
Will probably live longer if you took low-dose rapamycin
@bleacherz7503
@bleacherz7503 3 жыл бұрын
Looking healthier. Great job with weight loss
@MaghrebProductions
@MaghrebProductions 3 жыл бұрын
Because he has Skin in the Game!
@praneshsaisridhar2823
@praneshsaisridhar2823 3 жыл бұрын
Happening to watch this video when I'm reading the chapters on Mandelbrot, Power laws and the Great Intellectual fraud of the Gaussian in the Black swan.Happy to have stumbled upon this goldmine of lectures, especially before I start my PhD to study Robustness of Supply chains. I shall be more empirical and try to be wary of Ludic Fallacies.
@aravindpakaravoor
@aravindpakaravoor 3 жыл бұрын
These gems deserve better camera , microphone and things so that viewers will get a grasp of his ideas and wisdom without much interruptions. Thank you for sharing
@wer8990
@wer8990 3 жыл бұрын
I miss the blackboard, but love the videos. These videos are some of the best things to happen since Antifragile
@drealexatos3459
@drealexatos3459 3 жыл бұрын
If you don't own Bitcoin, you live long. Lol, Some truth right there
@icemann1037
@icemann1037 3 жыл бұрын
It`s like a whole book - but just the punchline! Love it - and of course, no BS!
@diegososa5280
@diegososa5280 3 жыл бұрын
These videos are absolute gold. Thanks a lot
@tiagotr
@tiagotr 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you Prof Taleb, my stats module in SW engineering seems to have skipped power laws for some reason. Very informative
@hdsjjsjjjsjsjsjssj6734
@hdsjjsjjjsjsjsjssj6734 3 жыл бұрын
Prof. Taleb That was an amazing explanation! Thanks
@CristobalRuiz
@CristobalRuiz 3 жыл бұрын
Great info and excellent enthusiasm! Thank you for the lesson!
@j.r.Bambus
@j.r.Bambus 3 жыл бұрын
Nassim really tries to set up a good learning enviroment for viewers
@reynoldtimotius7109
@reynoldtimotius7109 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you for the explanation. I watched all 23 minutes of it, didn't really think it's long anyway. Probably gonna watch it again cause i'm really lacking on technical (although you have made it greatly simplified). Anyway i really appreciate you doing this since this is really good for layperson like me to understand. Thank you and i notice you are doing great job on your weight loss
@johnnysprocketz
@johnnysprocketz 2 жыл бұрын
The greatest living philosopher of our time.
@ailihphilia
@ailihphilia 3 жыл бұрын
Amazing and clear as always -- greetings from a fellow Mediterranean from Sardinia :-)
@AB-eq5cs
@AB-eq5cs 3 жыл бұрын
The videos are beyond amazing
@the-brick-train
@the-brick-train 3 жыл бұрын
Fantastic as always, thank you. I do hope a lesson on entropy is coming
@MarkRuvald
@MarkRuvald 3 жыл бұрын
Btw Would love to get your thoughts on Hurst exponent and fractal Brownian motion. Along with optimal stopping criterion
@coAdjointTom
@coAdjointTom 3 жыл бұрын
For what it's worth I've toyed with these volatility models for forecasting. They are not practically useful.
@Antonioplus
@Antonioplus 3 жыл бұрын
Been waiting for this
@mahadevaniyer2726
@mahadevaniyer2726 3 жыл бұрын
Hi Taleb! The lecture was super informative as expected and I found your enthusiasm child like when talking proudly about power law as compared to other distributions! I have only a small observation, you neglected to mention that the exponent or power as you call it is itself subjective! The implications are obviously considerable! Just an honest observation, please correct me if I'm wrong! Thanks for such awesome videos! 😁👍
@GrzegorzBrysiewicz
@GrzegorzBrysiewicz 2 жыл бұрын
fantastic, thank you! so much research to do after your mini-lessons. no sleep Wednesday
@majedti4126
@majedti4126 3 жыл бұрын
Beautiful Nassim!
@prateekmohanani7001
@prateekmohanani7001 3 жыл бұрын
video quality 10/100 content quality 1000/100
@JohnSmith-rr3qn
@JohnSmith-rr3qn 3 жыл бұрын
Crocodile distribution example was really interesting, assuming it holds for lobsters as well
@berberidian
@berberidian 3 жыл бұрын
Very nice explanation, and very interesting inshights. I liked the exponential life expectancy == no aging. I wonder if there is/could-be a population with power-law life expectancy, and what would be the mechanics of that?
@dobrinstoilov
@dobrinstoilov 2 жыл бұрын
Binge-watching Taleb's Mini-lessons .. Thank you for them!
@andriifx1199
@andriifx1199 3 жыл бұрын
Very interesting. Reminded me of university classes
@anrm6
@anrm6 3 жыл бұрын
This whole series is basically Prof Taleb telling me that my stats class in college was mostly a waste lmaooooooo. Jokes aside where can I learn more of real, practical stats? Very interested in learning.
@anrm6
@anrm6 3 жыл бұрын
@ I ordered them just 2 days ago haha. Have read Fooled by Randomness which was ironically recommended by my stats prof
@srh80
@srh80 3 жыл бұрын
Check out statquest. Double bam!
@chrisz6860
@chrisz6860 2 жыл бұрын
Hey Nassim,, long time since our fx options days. Hope all is well.. funny, live a lot longer than 92 if you’re 80 and lift weights, don’t hang around economists & don’t own bitcoin! Chris
@Jack-lg9mq
@Jack-lg9mq 2 жыл бұрын
Your stats classes definitely weren't a waste of time, you will need the material covered to understand more complicated concepts like fat tailed distributions. Normal distributions aren't wrong in certain scenarios, they just often over simply the real world.
@johntibaldi9496
@johntibaldi9496 3 жыл бұрын
So good!
@juantrevisiol5737
@juantrevisiol5737 3 жыл бұрын
I would like to see the part 2 of this lecture. please keep making these videos
@MarkRuvald
@MarkRuvald 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for this. The last bit about alpha may also be demonstrated more easily in Mathematica.
@tcveatch
@tcveatch 3 жыл бұрын
To me it’s more intuitive to describe Gaussian style as having SQUARED exponential drop off. Contemplating that leads to much of this insight. Increase x, move out, by a unit, probability goes down by square of x not by a fixed fraction like the exponential for example. Then everything follows.
@lesleyjohnson8488
@lesleyjohnson8488 2 ай бұрын
But that’s the very definition of an exponent - square of x, or some exponent of x.
@kalebnunn1682
@kalebnunn1682 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for making this stuff so simple
@surendrabarsode8959
@surendrabarsode8959 3 жыл бұрын
Very interesting information. Thanks. Please continue like this!!! However, request you to please improve light and other technical aspects further. It is much better now than the earlier videos but with minor changes, you can improve further. Warm regards
@hdsjjsjjjsjsjsjssj6734
@hdsjjsjjjsjsjsjssj6734 3 жыл бұрын
13:25 Pure Gold
@warrenzhu9021
@warrenzhu9021 3 жыл бұрын
Yes!
@Michsel77
@Michsel77 3 жыл бұрын
What do you think of Mandelbrot's fractal view of price processes?
@flyingisawol
@flyingisawol 3 жыл бұрын
fkn love it Nassim, thankyou sir.
@SpindicateAudio
@SpindicateAudio 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for these videos. It is a privilege to be able to learn so much in exchange for so little.
@donbasti
@donbasti 3 жыл бұрын
Amazing content.
@djcuvcuv
@djcuvcuv Жыл бұрын
this was my favorite mooc of them all! (so far :D )
@samirelzein1978
@samirelzein1978 3 жыл бұрын
this is what i call science and a scientist.
@tosvarsan5727
@tosvarsan5727 3 жыл бұрын
you like to teach I like to learn. Thanks
@silenthuman009
@silenthuman009 2 жыл бұрын
HE IS A LEGEND!!!
@TheDeviceReviewer
@TheDeviceReviewer 3 жыл бұрын
Is the inverse true that you can infer from stable ratios a power law distribution?
@alexd5884
@alexd5884 3 жыл бұрын
Yes! New video.
@MrKrtek00
@MrKrtek00 3 жыл бұрын
I love how low tech these talks are. You really do not need more than a 20 years old phone and a toy board to make a great talk, if you know your sht. Taleb really knows his sht.
@bleacherz7503
@bleacherz7503 3 жыл бұрын
Great lecture - which book?
@chemsdinesidha5254
@chemsdinesidha5254 Жыл бұрын
Merci beaucoup...
@Endocrin-PatientCom
@Endocrin-PatientCom 3 жыл бұрын
Presenting some computational and practical examples would be nice
@thunderbirdizations
@thunderbirdizations 3 жыл бұрын
Is this similar to force of mortality or hazard rate?
@RJYoungling
@RJYoungling 3 жыл бұрын
Statistician friends, where do I supplement this material and fill gaps in my knowledge? Any recommended lectures?
@majedti4126
@majedti4126 3 жыл бұрын
yes this please. I think i might start reading his books.
@thoms4384
@thoms4384 3 жыл бұрын
Try @mikeandallie website, he went through few chapters from prof Taleb book. Otherwise, @nntaleb twitter, comments on the papers are often illustrated with real life examples. N.B. look for keywords, lot of noise generated by bitcoin people/cult requiring some additional filtering. Cheers !
@stephbailliegee
@stephbailliegee 3 жыл бұрын
This is centaral indeed. Thanks a lot for that! Btw, you may be considering buying a "fat" marker, that would help your viewers tremendously :-)
@srh80
@srh80 3 жыл бұрын
Better than blackboard. Can we please switch to a simple black marker for next one?
@thesteppino45
@thesteppino45 3 жыл бұрын
Man, I've NEVER struggled this hard in my life to understand a video. I just know that I'll regret it if I don't understand what is being said here. Time to watch this video 20 times until I get it.
@simonmasters3295
@simonmasters3295 3 жыл бұрын
I don't think it well explained at all But pens that worked would help
@dexterdexter402
@dexterdexter402 3 жыл бұрын
Yeah I followed his other stuff pretty easily. Most of this video is understandable too. Gotta listen again. Maybe because I have seen the other stuff everywhere else to some degree
@dexterdexter402
@dexterdexter402 3 жыл бұрын
@Dan Campbell agreed my man. We all have our own speeds.... I just reread my comment and realized i didn't articulate well. I meant to say that I too found this video difficult compared to other videos and I gotta watch more than once to understand this video. Good luck
@betwixtX
@betwixtX 3 жыл бұрын
this guy looks like mafia assasin
@kdesignkhalifa
@kdesignkhalifa 3 жыл бұрын
great content as usual, i think it would have been easier to understand if you drew the distribution maybe
@majedti4126
@majedti4126 3 жыл бұрын
Agreed
@plctg
@plctg 3 жыл бұрын
Nice talk! But you really deserve an interactive digital whiteboard...
@zerosugar8026
@zerosugar8026 3 жыл бұрын
If this is the simplified version the complicated must be insane
@golchha_J
@golchha_J 3 жыл бұрын
What happened to the blackboard?
@_N0_0ne
@_N0_0ne 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you kindly ✍️
@ClaimClam
@ClaimClam 3 жыл бұрын
🔥🔥🔥
@giancarlospinelli2194
@giancarlospinelli2194 3 жыл бұрын
Eu vou aperfeiçoar meu inglês, só para poder intender melhor suas aulas mestre, abraço, Brasil.
@gulmariyazhapakova2512
@gulmariyazhapakova2512 Жыл бұрын
@dziugas6795
@dziugas6795 Жыл бұрын
Was Nassim knowledgable of all this statistics theory, dsitributions and other stuff when he was first a trader?
@Holdem17
@Holdem17 3 жыл бұрын
Love the videos. Without spending time and money on a new camera/ lighting, use a BLACK dry eraser.
@alexleo8289
@alexleo8289 3 жыл бұрын
so much to think in so little time...
@bautistabaiocchi-lora1339
@bautistabaiocchi-lora1339 3 жыл бұрын
thank you for this, professor! :D i own btc, just sayin
@security_threat
@security_threat 3 жыл бұрын
Friend, I have an older GoPro (5 I think) that can shoot in 4k. I am not using it. I can mail it to you or somewhere anonymous or something. A worthwhile donation to the community!
@j.r.Bambus
@j.r.Bambus 3 жыл бұрын
Why would you write such bullshit if you read his book
@security_threat
@security_threat 3 жыл бұрын
@@j.r.Bambus Sorry I am a bit confused. I read some of his books a while ago. Additionally, he's clearly unwilling to buy a new camera and mine is collecting dust. I will benefit from the better quality video?
@j.r.Bambus
@j.r.Bambus 3 жыл бұрын
@@security_threat its not about the camera. its about how much you have to concentrate to listen to something, clear voice and 8k camera quality will make your brain less concentrated. Remeber it from his books
@security_threat
@security_threat 3 жыл бұрын
@@j.r.Bambus Actually... You might have a point!
@tylertheinvestor
@tylertheinvestor 11 күн бұрын
13:20 - "...if you don't hang around economists, if you don't own Bitcoin, or if they ban Bitcoin..." 3 years later it is being discovered that Bitcoin network is growing via Power Law. I came here to better understand power laws because of Bitcoin. The irony in this in unreal.
@roverinosnarkman7240
@roverinosnarkman7240 2 жыл бұрын
Red marker has lower contrast and more difficult for old eyes to see.
@Deadnature
@Deadnature 2 жыл бұрын
Bitcoin fixes life expectancy confirmed.
@user-or7ji5hv8y
@user-or7ji5hv8y 3 жыл бұрын
I think the video and audio quality could be better.
@dziugaschvoinikov4440
@dziugaschvoinikov4440 Жыл бұрын
13:20 funny guy
@MrBeen992
@MrBeen992 3 жыл бұрын
YES ! AT LAST ! HE FIXED THE BLACKBOARD PROBLEM. NOW HE ONLY HAS TO SOLVE THE LIGHTING PROBLEM !
@mlevel3041
@mlevel3041 3 жыл бұрын
You age well like wine
@Geroscientist
@Geroscientist 3 жыл бұрын
Maybe if aging biology research translates to humans, we may be able to increase healthy (and maximal) lifespan... I see Nassim follows some scientists in this area on twitter ;)
@dundoderdumme3044
@dundoderdumme3044 3 жыл бұрын
7:13 MonkaS
@LA30310080
@LA30310080 2 жыл бұрын
Summary: if you want a long life avoid economists like the plague
@marksvinicius73
@marksvinicius73 3 жыл бұрын
Questionable lesson Regards, #BTC
@theliftedbar4610
@theliftedbar4610 3 жыл бұрын
🤘 #bitcoin
@tylertheinvestor
@tylertheinvestor 11 күн бұрын
Bitcoin Power Law
@TheBlackClockOfTime
@TheBlackClockOfTime 3 жыл бұрын
Dear Honourable God Predictor Taleb, please invest in a better camera
@mattmazzola
@mattmazzola 2 жыл бұрын
Hah, "you could live longer if you don't hang around economists or own Bitcoin..." the intellectual jabs are Taleb specialty.
@marktube5732
@marktube5732 2 ай бұрын
Aging poorly each and every day.
@MarkRuvald
@MarkRuvald 3 жыл бұрын
Friend, Nassim, you need a better microphone. Camera too.
@griffithf.k.4136
@griffithf.k.4136 3 жыл бұрын
I kind of feel like this is part of the game. F-U money means you don't need a better camera or microphone. Capiche?
@lailahmaidan7200
@lailahmaidan7200 3 жыл бұрын
Laila, Reporter trying to reach you. Please let me know media contact.
@lolilollolilol7773
@lolilollolilol7773 3 жыл бұрын
very cool, but you really need to invest into an actual camera and an actual mic
@danys2427
@danys2427 3 жыл бұрын
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