MINI-LESSON 8: Power Laws (maximally simplified)

[@praneshsaisridhar2823]

Happening to watch this video when I'm reading the chapters on Mandelbrot, Power laws and the Great Intellectual fraud of the Gaussian in the Black swan.Happy to have stumbled upon this goldmine of lectures, especially before I start my PhD to study Robustness of Supply chains. I shall be more empirical and try to be wary of Ludic Fallacies.

[@aravindpakaravoor]

These gems deserve better camera , microphone and things so that viewers will get a grasp of his ideas and wisdom without much interruptions. Thank you for sharing

[@prateekmohanani7001]

video quality 10/100 content quality 1000/100

[@bleacherz7503]

Looking healthier. Great job with weight loss

[@MaghrebProductions]

Because he has Skin in the Game!

[@wer8990]

I miss the blackboard, but love the videos. These videos are some of the best things to happen since Antifragile

[@icemann1037]

It`s like a whole book - but just the punchline! Love it - and of course, no BS!

[@periklismylonas4831]

"You live longer if you don't hang around economists" xD

[@Geroscientist]

Will probably live longer if you took low-dose rapamycin

[@johnnysprocketz]

The greatest living philosopher of our time.

[@hdsjjsjjjsjsjsjssj6734]

Prof. Taleb That was an amazing explanation! Thanks

[@tiagotr]

Thank you Prof Taleb, my stats module in SW engineering seems to have skipped power laws for some reason. Very informative

[@drealexatos3459]

If you don't own Bitcoin, you live long. Lol, Some truth right there

[@AB-eq5cs]

The videos are beyond amazing

[@diegososa5280]

These videos are absolute gold. Thanks a lot

[@SpindicateAudio]

Thank you so much for these videos. It is a privilege to be able to learn so much in exchange for so little.

[@ailihphilia]

Amazing and clear as always -- greetings from a fellow Mediterranean from Sardinia :-)

[@MarkRuvald]

Btw Would love to get your thoughts on Hurst exponent and fractal Brownian motion. Along with optimal stopping criterion

[@coAdjointTom]

For what it's worth I've toyed with these volatility models for forecasting. They are not practically useful.

[@majedti4126]

Beautiful Nassim!

[@dobrinstoilov]

Binge-watching Taleb's Mini-lessons .. Thank you for them!

[@j.r.Bambus]

Nassim really tries to set up a good learning enviroment for viewers

[@Michsel77]

What do you think of Mandelbrot's fractal view of price processes?

[@juantrevisiol5737]

I would like to see the part 2 of this lecture. please keep making these videos

[@CristobalRuiz]

Great info and excellent enthusiasm! Thank you for the lesson!

[@GrzegorzBrysiewicz]

fantastic, thank you! so much research to do after your mini-lessons. no sleep Wednesday

[@hdsjjsjjjsjsjsjssj6734]

13:25 Pure Gold

[@warrenzhu9021]

Yes!

[@reynoldtimotius7109]

Thank you for the explanation. I watched all 23 minutes of it, didn't really think it's long anyway. Probably gonna watch it again cause i'm really lacking on technical (although you have made it greatly simplified). Anyway i really appreciate you doing this since this is really good for layperson like me to understand. Thank you and i notice you are doing great job on your weight loss

[@tcveatch]

To me it’s more intuitive to describe Gaussian style as having SQUARED exponential drop off. Contemplating that leads to much of this insight. Increase x, move out, by a unit, probability goes down by square of x not by a fixed fraction like the exponential for example. Then everything follows.

[@ljragsandfeathers]

But that’s the very definition of an exponent - square of x, or some exponent of x.

[@the-brick-train]

Fantastic as always, thank you. I do hope a lesson on entropy is coming

[@samirelzein1978]

this is what i call science and a scientist.

[@mahadevaniyer2726]

Hi Taleb! The lecture was super informative as expected and I found your enthusiasm child like when talking proudly about power law as compared to other distributions! I have only a small observation, you neglected to mention that the exponent or power as you call it is itself subjective! The implications are obviously considerable! Just an honest observation, please correct me if I'm wrong! Thanks for such awesome videos! 😁👍

[@tosvarsan5727]

you like to teach I like to learn. Thanks

[@anrm6]

This whole series is basically Prof Taleb telling me that my stats class in college was mostly a waste lmaooooooo. Jokes aside where can I learn more of real, practical stats? Very interested in learning.

[@anrm6]

@ I ordered them just 2 days ago haha. Have read Fooled by Randomness which was ironically recommended by my stats prof

[@srh80]

Check out statquest. Double bam!

[@chrisz6860]

Hey Nassim,, long time since our fx options days. Hope all is well.. funny, live a lot longer than 92 if you’re 80 and lift weights, don’t hang around economists & don’t own bitcoin! Chris

[@Jack-lg9mq]

Your stats classes definitely weren't a waste of time, you will need the material covered to understand more complicated concepts like fat tailed distributions. Normal distributions aren't wrong in certain scenarios, they just often over simply the real world.

[@JohnSmith-rr3qn]

Crocodile distribution example was really interesting, assuming it holds for lobsters as well

[@dziugas6795]

Was Nassim knowledgable of all this statistics theory, dsitributions and other stuff when he was first a trader?

[@foxthefox1199]

Very interesting. Reminded me of university classes

[@RJYoungling]

Statistician friends, where do I supplement this material and fill gaps in my knowledge? Any recommended lectures?

[@majedti4126]

yes this please. I think i might start reading his books.

[@thoms4384]

Try @mikeandallie website, he went through few chapters from prof Taleb book. Otherwise, @nntaleb twitter, comments on the papers are often illustrated with real life examples. N.B. look for keywords, lot of noise generated by bitcoin people/cult requiring some additional filtering. Cheers !

[@djcuvcuv]

this was my favorite mooc of them all! (so far :D )

[@Antonioplus]

Been waiting for this

[@bleacherz7503]

Great lecture - which book?

[@berberidian]

Very nice explanation, and very interesting inshights. I liked the exponential life expectancy == no aging. I wonder if there is/could-be a population with power-law life expectancy, and what would be the mechanics of that?

[@Endocrin-PatientCom]

Presenting some computational and practical examples would be nice

[@donbasti]

Amazing content.

[@MarkRuvald]

Thanks for this. The last bit about alpha may also be demonstrated more easily in Mathematica.

[@chemsdinesidha5254]

Merci beaucoup...

[@thesteppino45]

Man, I've NEVER struggled this hard in my life to understand a video. I just know that I'll regret it if I don't understand what is being said here. Time to watch this video 20 times until I get it.

[@simonmasters3295]

I don't think it well explained at all But pens that worked would help

[@dexterdexter402]

Yeah I followed his other stuff pretty easily. Most of this video is understandable too. Gotta listen again. Maybe because I have seen the other stuff everywhere else to some degree

[@dexterdexter402]

@Dan Campbell agreed my man. We all have our own speeds.... I just reread my comment and realized i didn't articulate well. I meant to say that I too found this video difficult compared to other videos and I gotta watch more than once to understand this video. Good luck

[@TheDeviceReviewer]

Is the inverse true that you can infer from stable ratios a power law distribution?

[@surendrabarsode8959]

Very interesting information. Thanks. Please continue like this!!! However, request you to please improve light and other technical aspects further. It is much better now than the earlier videos but with minor changes, you can improve further. Warm regards

[@kdesignkhalifa]

great content as usual, i think it would have been easier to understand if you drew the distribution maybe

[@majedti4126]

Agreed

[@srh80]

Better than blackboard. Can we please switch to a simple black marker for next one?

[@kalebnunn1682]

Thanks for making this stuff so simple

[@tylertheinvestor]

13:20 - "...if you don't hang around economists, if you don't own Bitcoin, or if they ban Bitcoin..." 3 years later it is being discovered that Bitcoin network is growing via Power Law. I came here to better understand power laws because of Bitcoin. The irony in this in unreal.

[@alexd5884]

Yes! New video.

[@_N0_0ne]

Thank you kindly ✍️

[@hanifamin7586]

Can someone clarify why there is no mean or variance in some condition of power law distribution? Is it not the case that you can always count the mean or variance of the sample (just by applying the formula to the data)? So, then what Mr. Taleb mean is that the REAL-WORLD data of something that come from certain power law distribution have a (relatively high) probability of containing a veryyyyyy large number (infinite/many times away from standard deviation) that the mean/variance of sample is very unstable and never converge as in Gaussian. Does this interpretation correct?

[@the1windwaker]

If this is the simplified version the complicated must be insane

[@johntibaldi9496]

So good!

[@silenthuman009]

HE IS A LEGEND!!!

[@giancarlospinelli2194]

Eu vou aperfeiçoar meu inglês, só para poder intender melhor suas aulas mestre, abraço, Brasil.

[@plctg]

Nice talk! But you really deserve an interactive digital whiteboard...

[@thunderbirdizations]

Is this similar to force of mortality or hazard rate?

[@golchha_J]

What happened to the blackboard?

[@flyingisawol]

fkn love it Nassim, thankyou sir.

[@betwixtX]

this guy looks like mafia assasin

[@MrKrtek00]

I love how low tech these talks are. You really do not need more than a 20 years old phone and a toy board to make a great talk, if you know your sht. Taleb really knows his sht.

[@stephbailliegee]

This is centaral indeed. Thanks a lot for that! Btw, you may be considering buying a "fat" marker, that would help your viewers tremendously :-)

[@ClaimClam]

🔥🔥🔥

[@AlwaysAudacity]

Love the videos. Without spending time and money on a new camera/ lighting, use a BLACK dry eraser.

[@security_threat]

Friend, I have an older GoPro (5 I think) that can shoot in 4k. I am not using it. I can mail it to you or somewhere anonymous or something. A worthwhile donation to the community!

[@j.r.Bambus]

Why would you write such bullshit if you read his book

[@security_threat]

@@j.r.Bambus Sorry I am a bit confused. I read some of his books a while ago. Additionally, he's clearly unwilling to buy a new camera and mine is collecting dust. I will benefit from the better quality video?

[@j.r.Bambus]

@@security_threat its not about the camera. its about how much you have to concentrate to listen to something, clear voice and 8k camera quality will make your brain less concentrated. Remeber it from his books

[@security_threat]

@@j.r.Bambus Actually... You might have a point!

[@dziugaschvoinikov4440]

13:20 funny guy

[@user-or7ji5hv8y]

I think the video and audio quality could be better.

[@alexleo8289]

so much to think in so little time...

[@bautistabaiocchi-lora1339]

thank you for this, professor! :D i own btc, just sayin

[@dundoderdumme3044]

7:13 MonkaS

[@danys2427]

❤️

[@roverinosnarkman7240]

Red marker has lower contrast and more difficult for old eyes to see.

[@MarkRuvald]

Friend, Nassim, you need a better microphone. Camera too.

[@griffithf.k.4136]

I kind of feel like this is part of the game. F-U money means you don't need a better camera or microphone. Capiche?

[@mlevel3041]

You age well like wine

[@LA30310080]

Summary: if you want a long life avoid economists like the plague

[@mhpowerlaw]

Why don't we learn such things in school?

[@Deadnature]

Bitcoin fixes life expectancy confirmed.

[@TheBlackClockOfTime]

Dear Honourable God Predictor Taleb, please invest in a better camera

[@marksvinicius73]

Questionable lesson Regards, #BTC

[@theliftedbar4610]

🤘 #bitcoin

[@tylertheinvestor]

Bitcoin Power Law

[@mattmazzola]

Hah, "you could live longer if you don't hang around economists or own Bitcoin..." the intellectual jabs are Taleb specialty.

[@marktube5732]

Aging poorly each and every day.

[@pocojoyo]

YES ! AT LAST ! HE FIXED THE BLACKBOARD PROBLEM. NOW HE ONLY HAS TO SOLVE THE LIGHTING PROBLEM !

[@lailahmaidan7200]

Laila, Reporter trying to reach you. Please let me know media contact.

[@Geroscientist]

Maybe if aging biology research translates to humans, we may be able to increase healthy (and maximal) lifespan... I see Nassim follows some scientists in this area on twitter ;)

[@lolilollolilol7773]

very cool, but you really need to invest into an actual camera and an actual mic

[@gulmariyazhapakova2512]

❤