The Law of Large Numbers and Fat Tailed Distributions

[@teddyregrets8384]

My inspiration! I teach undergrad Math Stats recitation at NYU Courant, and I always make sure to talk about power laws and show them a simulation like what you showed at 13:36 ... it blows my mind that nobody explains this stuff when they teach basic statistics!!

[@jstock2317]

It's quite interesting to realize these ideas aren't taking into account human behavior. They show that we would need to approach risk differently even if everyone were ethical and transparent. Thanks for your work Mr. Taleb!

[@behrad9712]

Unbelievable! Great honor to know you Nassim, you lighted my darkness of randomness! Best wishes from Iran...👌🙏

[@rajmalhotra7709]

It took me 2 years to understand only 25% of the content described in this video and I am watching it again to understand more. And my education is postdoctoral status in STEM. Truly ahead of time content.

[@jeroen6275]

Same, I only get the general gist of it.

[@Fightclub1995]

If you follow a masters course on extreme value theory, you can somewhat follow this

[@imperatoreTomas]

After reading your books that includes maybe 8 times and still not fully understanding everything I find this video extremely helpful and supplemental. You should make more supplemental videos

[@Senecamarcus]

What are some of your takeways from his work?

[@Learna_Hydralis]

@@Senecamarcus for me his works is basically a reformation of the narrative I use in my everyday life from narrative that consider the past and present into a narrative that also consider the future (which hidden and do not exist yet!).

[@johnanderson1916]

I think audio quality would have a concave curve. Quality is maximum when the needle is at reference deflection of the VU meter, in other words 0 VU. The left side of the curve suffers from poor signal to noise ratio and the right side suffers from distortion.

[@srh80]

Watching this for 10th time in a row, will probably need 10 more to completely understand this small facet of anti fragility!

[@gianlucalepiscopia3123]

It took 3 times for me man, I guess the basic idea is understanding how and when then LLN works (Chebyshev inequality)

[@spencerantoniomarlen-starr3069]

​@@gianlucalepiscopia3123 bingo

[@alexblack8780]

This guy is So fucking intelligent.... Respect from me

[@michaelvail4071]

Thank you. Very informative. If you could turn up the volume of your micro, that would be wonderful. 😊

[@draganostojic6297]

If I get the essence, can we trust or to which extent we can trust a random sample of a fat tail distribution to make sensible inferences?

[@tallsamurai7861]

Why is there a soda in the middle of probability distribution slides.

[@ozgeozcelik8921]

barely audible but still thousands of times worth watch

[@mikiallen7733]

Thanks sir , that was very meaningful to my and my current work

[@slovokia]

Hi, I find the audio for this video segment to be barely intelligible and I think I know what the problem is. I'd guess the audio was recorded using a webcam. Now some webcam software does a form of processing on the audio in order to try to eliminate background noise. Unfortunately if this processing is done too aggressively or if the sounds being recorded are too faint, what will happen is that quieter sounds are either made even more quiet or cut off entirely. Either way the end result is recorded speech that cannot be easily understood. The solution is to disable this processing. If you are using a logitech webcam I'd suggest disabling the RightSound option in the logitech webcam controller. When you do that you will notice that audio recorded will have a background hiss - that is o.k. because it means low level signals will not be cut off and as a result soft speech will actually become more intelligible again. For really good audio a better bet is to buy a USB based microphone of decent quality and use that instead. You may also want to do some dynamic range compression on the recording afterwards as well as some slight equalization boosts if necessary. But that will require more complicated processing software.

[@timthompson468]

Thanks.

[@nntalebproba]

You're welcome

[@gstalbert5449]

I just came across this. Not a complete idiot but I'm trying to work my way up to a gut feel, you look at it an know. Thx for this!

[@Felicidade101]

It would be nice to have the slides Ill screenshot them for now I guess :D

[@Wonderboywonderings]

Yeah. Needs to be louder.

[@re_di_roma_is_back2388]

Excellent. I was wondering what are the implications of this in econometric modeling (especially macro-econometric models).

[@mikiallen7733]

Look at the exponent of your time series changes

[@artieboy24]

Don't get Mr. Taleb started on econometrics!

[@mopsnuf]

Thank you for sharing.

[@waleeddawalebi7850]

لماذا لا تحاضر باللغة العربية، دكتور؟

[@she-vc2788]

I love how he said Physicist care about Power laws they prefer to be clean and do not care about stats consequences of the fat tails. I'm reading his current statistical consequences in fat tails now.

[@maxsagibgareev]

The video is great, but so quite...

[@qazaqtatar]

Modern way of giving a seminar

[@copiludeargint]

Don t be afraid to take a sip of water from time to time