MJO Driving The Pacific - The Models Have No Clue!

[@jasonlefeber1828]

Love the content, thanks for doing it!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Jason - Thanks so much! It's a pleasure to do these videos.

[@evolutionmoto]

The high pressure influence affecting the southern 1/2 of California is off the charts. I have a feeling we will break the driest year records down here this go round :(. Hopefully, this doesn’t turn into another multi year thing like the last time.

[@Stormsurf001]

Thanks so much Evolution for you ongoing contributions. I really do appreciate it! I'm right with you regarding hoping we don't end up in a multiyear La Nina event. One year is fine, we'll get over that,. But 3 years, that would be miserable, Guess we'll have to wait and see, In the meantime, I surf!!! Thanks again.

[@Bangbangthatdrum]

You are the man! Much apricated Mark.

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Bangbang - Thanks so much! Glad you are here and enjoyed it.

[@timkasten343]

Thanks Mark!

[@Stormsurf001]

Thank YOU Tim! I always appreciate your contributions.

[@barrjohnm]

Thanks so much Mark! Great forecast as always. I am so happy that the waves will be coming up tomorrow and Tuesday here in Hawaii. I hope that you can get out there and get some good surf yourself. Until next time, have a great week.

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi John - You too! Hope you score. I'll be in the water sharing the same swells as you, just 2 days later. Hope you too have a great week.

[@barrjohnm]

@@Stormsurf001Aloha Mark, sorry to get back to you so late. I’ve been really busy this week. Monday was the day at Sunset Beach. I really scored. I hope that you’re scoring there at Ocean Beach San Francisco, the waves should get really good there. Have a great rest of your week and I’ll talk to you over the weekend.

[@Main.Account]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Main Account - love your handle! Thanks so much for your donation. It helps keep all the hardware and software in order, or at least a little more resilient. Thanks!

[@HumbleTurkey]

Love when the N. Pacific is the star ⭐️ of the show!!! Nothing huge here in Ventura but consistent waves since turkey day! Keep it comin Mark and wave Gods! Love to wiggle

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Tim - Yes - finally the North Pacific is starting to shine. We need it. Glad you are getting something rideable down there. Hope you score!

[@HumbleTurkey]

@ thanks braddah! Hope you are getting some goods in SF

[@coachnate1]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Nate - Thanks so much for your contribution. It's always appreciated. Hope you score this week.

[@coachnate1]

Thanks again Mark great report as always🤙🏾hoping for some rain to help the sandbars down here... but can't help but love the light afternoon wind here In the Monterey bay, hope you get some waves this we3k.

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Nate, Yes - offshore winds for a few more days. It was blowing hard offshore even at 2 PM today. Lot's of opportunity for post work surf. Hope you get some good ones.

[@kandacehead9544]

Hi Mark, long time no see. Since April I haven’t looked at anything ENSO- or weather-related because I didn’t want to get myself down by watching the development of La Niña and dreading the upcoming winter. Up to now all I knew was that a La Niña was developing and that was it (I didn’t know any specific details such as the strength of the La Niña, the MJO status, etc.). Because we had a moderate-strong El Niño last year, I was expecting a very strong La Niña like what we had in 2010-11. When I saw an image of the current La Niña for the first time today, I was shocked to see that it’s much weaker than I expected it to be, especially with a cold PDO and coming off of a substantial El Niño. I’m also surprised that it looks westward-displaced (Modoki). Though not a guarantee, I’m hoping this means that CA (including SoCal) is in for an average to above-average year of precipitation, as is often the case in winters following an El Niño due to lingering momentum in the atmosphere. 😊

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Kandace - Great to see you again! Hope you've been doing well. Yeah - Even the models were initially projecting some sort of strong La Nina event this season. But in doing the postmortem analysis of last years El Nino, I found that did not end up nearly as strong as projected. And of course that was likely due to the influence of our ongoing very cold and prolonged PDO. If that is the case, then it kinda makes sense the reaction to the El Nino (in the form of a La Nina event) would not be that strong either. Even with the strong PDO, I suspect most of the La Nina signal we are seeing is mostly amplification from the PDO rather than that of a pure La Nina signal. At least that's my current guess. And theoretically La Nina should have peaked by about not. All that said, in relation to precip for Southern CA, I'm still not very encouraged that you will get much rain down there this winter. I'm hoping for 85% of normal snowfall in the Tahoe area, at best. We'll know a lot more as we get into early Jan - which is when the real snow season typically starts in Tahoe. My rationale is that if last years El Nino was weak, then there isn't that much leftover momentum in the atmosphere to power us into this coming La Nina winter. But who knows? We'll just have to see. Lots to monitor and speculate on!

[@kandacehead9544]

@ In 2009-10 we had a moderate El Niño followed by a strong La Niña in 2010-11 (both winters yielded substantial precipitation for all of CA). In 2006-07, we had a weak El Niño that ended up being a record-dry winter for SoCal which was followed by a strong La Niña in 2007-08 (and above-average precip in SoCal, making up for the previous year’s deficit). The PDO was also cold during the above winters. I spoke with Daniel Swain a few years ago and he mentioned that while warm water on the equator (during an El Niño) does support the development of low pressure systems in the northern and southern hemispheres, warmer than normal ocean temperatures further from the equator (like in the PDO regions) actually do the opposite (in that they support high pressure systems). I even learned in my climatology class that a warm PDO (when there is no El Niño present) strengthens the Aleutian Low, which results in a Triple R-like ridge over the US West Coast (due to the warmer waters along the coast). During the worst of the Triple-R years (2013-15), there was extremely warm water along the US West Coast, so much so that it was detrimental to local marine life (in addition, even the Pacific Northwest was blocked from rain). A ridge over the Western US and a trough over the east side of the country is a +PNA (Pacific North American pattern). I also learned that a cold PDO supports a -PNA, with a trough over the west and a ridge over the east. During the warm PDO of 1976-98, we had a double El Niño in 1986-88. I was only 2-4 years old at the time so can’t remember what happened but I’ve heard some people refer to that double El Niño as “the double bastard” (pardon my language) because neither one of those winters yielded above-average precipitation in SoCal, even with the warm PDO. I looked at the models this morning and noticed that the Aleutian Low looks pretty strong, but is westward-displaced (hence why everyone on the west coast is getting rain except for SoCal), therefore reinforcing a ridge east of the low. Going by what I learned from Daniel Swain and my climatology class, the current setup looks like what we would expect in a westward-displaced El Niño or warm PDO without an El Niño. In a cold PDO/La Niña (especially a westward-displaced/Modoki La Niña like what we appear to have now), I would expect a ridge where the Aleutian Low is now, and a trough where there is currently high pressure.

[@Stormsurf001]

@@kandacehead9544 Great write up Kandace! - Thanks for sharing that insightful info. So in our current situation (midoki La Nina/Westward displace La Nina) I suspect most of it is just due temporarily to the MJO being stuck strong over the Maritime Continent, which is in turn energizing the jetstream as it pushes downstream over the North Pacific, feeding the Aleutian/Dateline low. But, I suspect that will not really live long enough to be considered a pattern, more of just a temporary 'situation'. If a month from now the MJO is still strong over the Maritime Continent and the jet is still raging, then I might be inclined to say some major shift in the global weather pattern is setting up. But I have zero hopes of that actually occurring. My guess on the most likley scenrio a month from now is that a generalized high pressure regimes sets up over the North Pacific more typical of a weak La Nina. Either way, I'm guessing rainfall will be scarce for Southern and Central CA this winter, and that at best the 'dry line' (dividing line between rain and no rain) will be somewhere between San Francisco and Cape Mendocino for the bulk of the core of Winter. I hope I'm wrong. Guess well see.

[@kandacehead9544]

@@Stormsurf001 Why would much of CA receive little rain if the La Niña is westward-displaced/Modoki? We had a Modoki La Niña in 2016-17 and all of CA got hosed big time. Btw, the current setup (MJO-wise) is similar to what we had two years ago when all of CA also got above-average precipitation.

[@Stormsurf001]

@@kandacehead9544 Good Question - And for sure it's looking more and more like a Modoki La Nina this year. But I suspect the PDO and Pacific basin wide high pressure is having an oversized influence too. So though technically this is a westward based La Nina, the whole Pacific is experiencing La Nina conditions. as soon as this Active MJO pattern fades (like in 2 weeks according to the models) then we'll see what is really in store for us this Winter. That said, if we stay stuck in this pattern where the jet is super strong, and the models have no clue, then who knows?

[@willduncan3865]

I remember last la niña 3 years ago, the active MJO was in the maritime continent. It produced 3 weeks of non stop big WNW swell for Norcal. You had a theory that the active MJO was helping feed the jet stream across japan into the NPAC, like what you said was going on right now

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Duncan - Thanks for refreshing my memory of what I said a few years ago! haha Give that, it looks like we're in for some good surf. Bring it on! And long live the Active Phase of the MJO.

[@billwalt9026]

just give me the surf report for us hungry surfers. no one give a hoot about your computer hard drives issues. We can appreciate you more. the sign at work used to be " No on cares about your problems, get down and get the work done" I've been surfing since last week; Rincon at the Ventura Santa Barbara county line and the head high sets, hanging out with seasoned mature pit crew with a view of the beautiful break... wish you a love day and keep that smile rolling

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Bill - Thanks for your input. The flip side of this is I often get some hate mail when the site/waves models are down for a few days so I just wanted to let folks know what was going on. Glad you have been scoring down there. And much more is coming your way. You and the boys will be in heaven the next few days. Hope you get your fill. It's time we all get some much needed surf.

[@MrWarrenRetro]

December 2024 is no show rain in Southern California. Will be drier winter ended up being like December 2000?

[@Sivdog369]

Neutral= La Nada 😂😂😂 Thanks again for another great breakdown.

[@Stormsurf001]

SivDog - You are most welcome. Hoping the La Nina pattern does not hinder swell production too much.

[@Sivdog369]

​@@Stormsurf001to be honest the La Nina years were really good in my hood(southern mexico). Things have been good even now except for the Nortes knocking it down a peg. Not like it ever really goes flat, but so far it's been a solid off season. Water coldest it's been in a couple years. See you next week!

[@Stormsurf001]

@@Sivdog369 Thanks for the report! Alot more in the pipeline coming your way.

[@bones8057]

Dang sorry about all the work Mark. Thanks for your efforts. I'll send you some $$$

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Bones - Wow - Thanks so much. my wife told me this morning you had pushed some money through the pipe. It's always appreciated. Hope you are doing well and getting some more waves. It's a great time to be in the water.

[@bones8057]

@@Stormsurf001 Hey thank you Mark. It's a drop in the bucket compared to your service. Not much surf for me lately too busy but as soon as I get out I'll send you a report.

[@brendonmasters]

Are teleconnections and models the same thing? Which one would you trust with paint on its face? La Niña and the Southern Hemisphere have some kind of effect on each other. When those blues and purples show up in the kwga the south’s start steaming in.

[@Stormsurf001]

For sure the MJO affects both the north and south hemi's. And good point - the Active MJO over the Maritime Continent is likely driving both the North Pacific jetstream/storm track while also feeding the New Zealand storm corridor. So to your point, the MJO and it's teleconnections is the real deal. Who needs those stinking models! hahah.

[@MrWarrenRetro]

La Nina year is returning to 2027-2028? And 2029-2030?

[@rayvelasco2059]

Most Excellent ¿

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Ray! Thanks so much.

[@gartwilliams3347]

Paying attention Daniel Swain (Weather West - Climate Charlatan)?

[@Stormsurf001]

I watch Daniel. Pure science. Phd in meteorology too if I recall correctly.

[@baneverything5580]

I just saw a scary prediction, again, about a "study" predicting an ice free Arctic, again. How did they come to this conclusion? A bunch of "What if?" models and 366 "What if?" computer "simulations" using "What if?" data input until FINALLY...they got the 9 "What if?" results they were looking for! They included the typical picture of a Polar Bear standing on some floating ice as if they`re going extinct when in fact their population has reached record numbers.

[@ronaldolivas5486]

This is all contingent on how you approach the question . In the 8-9 zones of polar bear habitation , they are decreasing or seriously decreasing in all but 2. Those two areas are seeing an increase . However, these are the “last stand “ regions which still have a healthy environment for them . None of this ,however, is any sort of refutation of the clear and credible evidence of dramatic Shift in the climate as a result of Human activity

[@baneverything5580]

@@ronaldolivas5486 We`re still exiting the most recent ice age and have been for over 12,000 years, so. The earth`s climate has never been stable and it will never be stable. And again, there are record numbers of Polar Bears right now. The biggest threats facing the planet are sudden climate changes caused by space impacts, volcanoes, the sun, and the rapidly decreasing magnetic field of the planet. We`re due another major catastrophe at any moment and not one finger has been lifted by politically motivated scientists or governments to warn the citizens or help them to prepare. See history...REAL history.

[@lukehunter3902]

@@ronaldolivas5486I was with you until the very last sentence.

[@timkasten343]

@@lukehunter3902No doubt! 🙄

[@ronaldolivas5486]

@@lukehunter3902 if you have evidence to the contrary, I'd love to hear it. Seriously, I'm not tossing sarcasm or facetiousness.

[@OurPredicament]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi Our Predicament. Thanks so much! Hope you are doing well.

[@eslate]

Thanks!

[@Stormsurf001]

Hi eSlate! Thanks so much for your contribution. I certainly appreciate it. Hope you are getting waves down your way. Plenty more coming too.