@jakemarlow8998 Hi Jake - I just noticed that thanks to your message. I'll dig deeper into it. All my servers are working fine so it must be NOAA related as you suggested.

Many thanks E Slate for your contribution! Hope you're doing well and getting some waves.

Hi Kandace - Good question. You had previously mentioned (I think) that with this Modoki pattern one would expect a lot of backdoor fronts pushing down the US West Coast. And Yes, I would expect that to be the case. Maybe that is where we are finally headed now. It's just so hard to figure out what is actually happening. We're like part way in Modoki and part way in a regular La Nina pattern and the atmosphere is not responding clearly as one would figure it should. A head scratcher for sure.

Hi Tucker - thanks so much for your contribution! Always appreciated. And thanks for all your great surf video work! You're the best!

Hi Colin - Thanks so much for your kind words! And many thanks for your contribution. It's appreciated.

Yeah - i saw yesterday and nearly had a heart attack. Now it's back to more healthier accumulations. But I suspect it's going to flop around a few more times before getting locked into a specific pattern. Fingers crossed.

Hi Rav4 - you are most welcome. We're here to serve. And thanks so much for your contribution!

Hi Bang Bang - Yeah I seem to not recall the ice melt being so obvious in past years. if I were to guess it is likely due to NOAA finding a way to 1) either depict the Antarctic Ice in higher resolution in the model or 2) The raw satellite data used to image the ice has been upgraded, allow a higher resolution visualization in the wave model. Either way, it's certainly is a lot more noticeable, which is always a good thing. More detail counts to me! To part 2 of your question, the smaller the ice shelf down south the greater the surface area for storms to blow winds upon, and to get traction, therefore generating swell. Of notice there is actually a tiny southern hemi swell pushing up towards Southern CA from a gale in the deep Southeast Pacific a few days ago and another stronger one is forecast starting Wed (1/29). I never recall seeing southern hemi swells being generated in Jan/Feb. The root cause of that is something to explore and debate in the future. And yes, we got that late Nov swell you mentioned too. Is Winter no longer winter anymore? ha ha! Anyways, great question! Thanks.

Hi Sivdog - oh shoot, I literally wrote a note to myself after last weeks video and your comment to show the period chart, and then promptly forgot to read the note before producing this weeks video. I'll stick it more prominently on my desk for this coming weeks video. It is a great suggestion! So sorry. And at some point I'm going to build a period hindcast chart. Thanks again for your suggestion (and reminder).

​@@Stormsurf001no worries. It amazing you get that much information together on your videos as it is!😂

Hi Peter - Thanks so much!

Hi Tim - Hope you are doing well and thanks for the donation!

@ 🤙🏽 enjoying the rain. Finally ~

@@timkasten343 Yes - Finally some rain for Southern CA!

Hi Henry - Thanks so much for the report! Was wondering exactly what was going on in Southern CA. Glad you finally got a little bit of moisture. And more is forecast a week out.

Hi Harrison - Ah - you too are down the waeather rabbit hole! Always great to hear from someone in the know. I didn't realize the PNW was at 60% of normal snowpack now. You all where getting hammered in Dec, but this last dry phase has taken a bite out of all that as it has down here. Anyway, fingers crossed for a return of rain and snow. We need it!

Hi Andrew - I appreciate your input. It's always a race between how much detail to go into versus watching the clock. An hour long video is a lot to ask of folks, but everyone seems to like it. When in doubt, you can always use the chapter function to just find the sections you are interested in. The format is pretty much the same each week. Thanks again!

Hi Pierre - Thanks so much for your donation. And thanks for the report. It's always good to get real time feedback from people where the action is. Glad you at least got some light rain. For sure - more to come.

You are most welcome John. Thanks for your report. I always like hearing what's going on in your slice of paradise! It's going flat here, but at least there's the opportunity for snow.

@@Stormsurf001 thanks so much Mark, I think that there should be a swell coming the weekend which s only a few days away, but now the waves are so small.

Hi Ray - Thanks!

That is great to hear! Any rain is good rain at this point. And it looks like more to come.

Hi Robert - Exactly! The jet stream pushes across the Pacific, and then across the US mainland and into the Atlantic, driving storm west to east on the jetstream track. Storms that penetrate the US West coast can continue to circulate as they cross the American Continent. For sure they loose energy and power, but then that remnant energy will hit the Atlantic seaboard and become reenergized as it starts absorbing energy from the warm Atlantic. Now not every storm can survive the journey east, but some do. It depends on what the jetstream is doing as it crosses the US. Hope that helps.

Hi Matt - That is great news! Bring on the rainfall to help moisten the ground a little! And it looks like a better/wetter pattern is setting up a week out.

Thank YOU Our Predicament! Hope all is going well for you.

Hi Kim - Thanks so much for your contribution!

Hi Nate - Yes - light winds in the afternoon is great. but I think we're gonna be begging for some rideable surf fairly soon. The NPac looks very sleepy. Hope you're doing well otherwise!

You are most welcome Angel! And yes - you are the first in the line up!

Thank YOU Sammy! I really appreciate you donation!

HI Warren - Actually probably not. I'd like to see the folks in LA get a few inches of rain. It's needed so much.

Hi Mark - Thanks so much! Hope you are getting some waves somewhere.

Hi Clay - you are most welcome. And thanks so much for your on going donations. It is very much appreciated!

Hi Our Predicament! Thanks as always for your ongoing contributions. Hope all is going well for you.

@Stormsurf001 no problem. I appreciate you

Hi Brendon - Hope all is well with you. Plenty of surf on the US West Coast now, at least north of Pt Conception. Make hay while the sun shines!

Hi Bob - Wow! Thanks so much for your generous contribution. It is very much appreciated! Hope you have a great week.

Hi Ronald - you are most welcome! Glad you watch this channel. We'll do it again this coming Sunday!

Hi Eric - Very good question. I think the scientists are still trying to sort it all out. But from a practical perspective, i would say yes, global temps have fallen some sue to volcanic aerosols in the upper atmosphere reflecting sunlight back to space. At the surface that seems to be what is occurring. But it might take a bit longer till we get actual temperature deviation measurements. But great question!

Ha ha - I hope so too! I hadn't really noticed till you said something but sure enough, the warming pattern up there seems to me forecast to move east. And subsurface warming under the equator is to for sure be moving east. Let's hope a change is coming, especially in the PDO. Fingers crossed. And thanks so much for all your contributions!

Hi Evolution - It looks like you hit the enter button twice. Regardless - Thanks as always! hope you're getting some surf.

Hi Tim - First off thanks so much for your donation! Always appreciated. It seems this is the new normal. High pressure rules supreme over the Pacific Basin. Now one could still say the cold phase of the PDO is not helping, and Hunga Tonga Volcano aerosols are still playing a role. So one should consider that. But if some sort of real change doesn't set up in the next year or two, I'd say this is what 'normal' has become.

@ deserts moving further north. I’ve noticed that it’s very apparent from my visits to Baja and talking with ranchers and farmers. Many aquifer are dry now days when they would recover in wet years.

@@timkasten343 Thanks for the perspective Tim. Scary stuff.

Hi Jake, Yeah - I've been watching the model flip-flop regarding the 26th. Though it seems at least a few drops might fall in North CA from that backdoor front. But I'm really waiting for the jetstream ridge off the US West coat to completely collapse. Then Winter will begin. I'd like to see feet of snow in Tahoe sometime soon and at least an inch in LA for the folks there. Fingers Crossed.

@@Stormsurf001winter will begin? is this a late winter trend ? also does the rain seem more likely since the updated models, im really hoping it takes out the fires and brings better skys!

@@leorwolf Hi Leor - Rain is current forecast for Southern CA this weekend! Hooray. Maybe not a lot of it, but certainly enough to help the firefighters and reduce future fire potential for a bit. Every little bit helps. Regarding a real Winter, not sign of it yet on the models going out 2 weeks at least south of San Francisco.

@ shouldn’t winter be behind us based on the solstice and days getting longer here in CA

@leorwolf Spring doesn't start till like March 21. Seasons on the ground lag behind the solstice. For example, the Winter starts Dec 21, the day of the solstice and continues for 3 months.

You are welcome Danny! Thank YOU for your contributions!

Oh heck, I hadn't thought about that and it's impacts on you. At least the road is open now. Hope you've been getting some surf regardless.

Hi Elliot - Hope you are doing well. I try to be consistent to keep everyone happy. And thanks so much for your donation!

Right!

Hi Ray - Yeah - great time to do roof repairs and pour concrete and the like. Ha ha. I'd rather have rain though.

​. When the weather gives you lemons, make lemon aid....

Hi Patricio - I'm so happy to hear you have finally gotten power back full time. I had a buddy down your way hiking Cotipaxi (sp?) over Christmas and he reported there were still outages a few hours a day. Things must steadily be getting better, Hooray! I have my fingers crosses that the warm waters holds along and off your coast. And front all I'm seeing, this Modoki La Nina pattern should be starting to fade in the next few weeks, if it's not already. Thanks so much for the report. I really appreciate it!

@@Stormsurf001 I am sure he enjoyed the Cotopaxi Volcano, it is a beautiful experience, I have a friend who owns a Hacienda that is a couple of hundred years old that used to be an Inca palace...Ecuador with its 4 worlds is amazing, Coast, Andes, Amazon and Galapagos. You should come down and visit!!

Watch him everyday

Yes, he does a very comprehensive analysis.

Hi Ross - Yeah - I watch Michael a fair amount too. He does a great job of wrapping up the daily weather in a nice concise package. Props to Michael! And you are most welcome.

Hey Mark - Great to see you here! Missed chatting with you in the water at our favorite secret spot this summer. Hopefully we'll get a chance to talk again this coming summer and hope you're doing well.

Yes hope to see you out in the water Mark. Thanks for your in depth reports as always. Praying for rain!

Hi Kandace - Very good question. And yes, I would have expected many backdoor troughs with a classic Modoki La Nina for the reasons you mentioned. But no, that's not happening. Very strange. But, earlier in this evolving event water temps were much colder off Ecuador and the Galapagos, and only since Thanksgiving have those temps warmed. So to your point, this Modoki event only developed in the past 6 weeks. Even so, there was a lot of rain coming into California north of the Golden Gate and even the Pacific Northwest into Christmas, then it just dried up. So I'm thinking this drought is a combination of the switch to Modoki and and MJO influenced event. Specifically, it's related to the strength of the jet. In the Nov-Dec rainfall event, the jet was consolidated pushing the whole way across the Pacific. Where now it's perpetually split north of Hawaii and then driving up into Alaska leaving even the Pacific Northwest high and dry. And I suspect that is due to the degradation of the low pressure bias over the Maritime Continent. www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif ncics.org/pub/mjo/v2/hov/uwnd850.cfs.eqtr.png Notice how westerly anomalies weakened at 90E starting 12/26 as the Inactive Phase of the MJO was developing in that area. Also notice how westerly anomalies are forecast to return in that same area starting in a few days as an Active MJO then starts rebuilding. My guess is if that occurs, that will start feeding energy into the jet enabling the split point to start tracking east and hopefully into the US West Coast a week or so out bringing precip. But....the GFS and ECMWF have not picked up on that yet. So all the above is just a guess on my part. Guess we'll see. Hope you're doing well.

@ You mentioned that the drought might be due to La Niña evolving into a Modoki. Did you mean to say that it’s due to atmospheric momentum currently reflecting the East-based nature that this La Niña once was before it became a Modoki around Thanksgiving? Also, the active MJO is currently in Phase 1 (which from my experience is usually supportive of rain into CA), which is another head-scratcher. It’s one thing to have a drought pattern when ocean temperatures in the ENSO regions reflect that because we expect it. But when ENSO suggests we should be having something different (and yet we still get a drought pattern), that’s when it gets disappointing and frustrating (which is how I felt during the 2015-16 El Niño). I know that not everyone here believes this, but I do want to mention that I’ve been praying to God consistently for rain. As a Christian, I was told that God answers prayers in three ways: yes, no, and wait. Regarding the rain, I felt that God was telling me to wait. Whether that means rain will eventually arrive sometime this winter or that we will have to wait until next winter (or later) remains to be seen. The wet winter of 2022-23 two years ago was completely unexpected and caught me by surprise. We were in a third-year, East-based La Niña with a cold PDO. I looked at all the teleconnection charts that I was familiar with and none were showing anything that would support a wet pattern for all of CA. When I asked you about it, you explained that the long-running La Niña had run its course and that its weakening momentum was allowing energy to return to the jet stream with gusto. That might have been true, but the fact that nothing scientific was suggesting such a pattern led me to believe that it was nothing short of a miracle from God.

@@kandacehead9544 Hi Kandace - Yeah, I suspect the fact that this current Modoki La Nina started out as an east based event probably has something to due with the current drought situation. And the MJO is all but worthless at this point, other than the low pressure bias over the Maritime Continent. Strong east anomalies are locking down the dateline region with no end in sight, right near where the peak cooling in the equatorial ocean is occurring. Regarding the winter of 22-23, that was actually the start of the 23-24 El Nino. Typically that is how they form, with strong Active MJO pulses developing in the West Pacific in Jan-Mar the year before El Nino really manifests. And like on Jan 1 of 2023, that's when the jet started raging driving storm after storm across the Pacific and into the US West Coast. Like you said - the strength and consistency of the Westerly Wind Bursts/Active MJO pulses was a bit unexpected and started the hype around a super El Nino developing. But as we now know, that all fizzled mid-summer and we just ended of with a generic grade El Nino the Winter of 2023-2024. That relates to this years rain in Nov-Dec because it was the exact same mechanism that allowed North CA and the Pacific Northwest to get all their rain - The MJO pulsing over the Maritime Continent feeding the jetstream, only not as strong as the 2022-23 event and not nearly as long. And when it collapsed late Christmas, we've been stuck in a dry pattern ever since. I mean, no rain in January is not unusual, especially during La Nina. in fact, it should be expected. But the real question is whether we will get another pulse of MJO or low pressure biased fueled rain in Feb. That is the big unknown. Odds are in our favor based on history. but one can never be certain when throwing in the effects of the Hunga Tonga volcano and a warming planet. It's uncharted territory. Saying a prayer is a very good idea because I suspect that is all were gonna have going in our favor at some point in the not to distant future, unless the PDO magically reverses direction.

@ A warm PDO does not necessarily mean that CA will be drought-free for a solid 15-30 years. During the warm phase of 1976-98, there was a 2-year strong El Niño (though not super strong) in 1986-88 followed by a strong La Niña in 1988-89. Both El Niño years and the La Niña that followed yielded below-average rainfall in SoCal. The drought continued into the neutral years of 1989-91 and was finally broken by the record “Miracle March” of 1991 (likely due to a strong pulse of the active MJO that kickstarted the development of the 1991-92 El Niño). I also remember bone-dry Januaries during El Niño years (in 2003 and 1998-yes, you read that right!) after a good soaking in December before the rain kicked up again in February. What made things so severe this time around was the lack of rain down south in December. Also, if you look at the PDO index mapped out on a graph (the one that shows the blue downward spikes for cold phases and red upward spikes for warm phases), it shows that we haven’t been in a clearly defined cold or warm regime (in which we’re constantly in the same phase without too many brief shifts into the opposite phase) since the 1997-98 El Niño. We had about 4 years of cold in 1998-02, 4 years of warm from 2002-06, 7 years of cold from 2006-13, 5 years of warm from 2014-19, and now our current cold spell. Instead of being in a solid cold phase for 20+ years, the PDO has been switching back and forth every 4-7 years, whereas prior to the 1997-98 El Niño we had 20-30+ year regimes with few interruptions. This is another head-scratcher for me. 🤔

@@kandacehead9544 Hi Kandace - Absolutely a warm PDO guarantees nothing. A warm PDO only means the 'probability' of rainfall increases in California, it is not an absolute. During a Warm PDO still means there are La Nina's and there would still be droughts, because they are both part of a normal weather cycle. But what it does mean is that the probability of stronger than normal El Ninos are higher, and that in general the environment is more favorable to precipitation because average surface pressure in the Pacific is lower than during the Cold PDO. The PDO is not a weather cycle unto itself, it is more measure of how the atmosphere is responding to a change in overall pressure. A PDO cycle last for 20+ years. We have been in a cold PDO since '98. Yes, there have been imbedded warm years, but the overall balance is towards cold. Recent PDO cycles are: Cold 1909-1925 14 year Warm 1925-1943 18 years Cold 1943-1097 54 years Warm 1976-1997 21 year Cold 1998-present 26 years The PDo is really about the long arch of history. The 4 year mini cycles you mention above are more reflections of the ENSO cycle. ENSO on average occurs in 7 year cycles , say 5 year cold and 2 years warm . Look at the time line here; www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/ and consider the 20-30 years cycles. It's a different perspective for sure.