Strong Inactive MJO Dumping Fuel on La Nina!

Рет қаралды 2,770

Күн бұрын

Пікірлер: 34

@preplan1 2 ай бұрын

Question with regards to wind gales: 50+ knots is considered a storm, 35-50 knots is considered a gale, what do we call winds 35 knots and below? Thanks Mark! ~Emilio 🤙🏽

@OurPredicament 2 ай бұрын

Appreciate you keeping us informed!

@Stormsurf001 2 ай бұрын

Hi Our Predicament - you are most welcome! It's always a pleasure to do these videos. Thanks again for all your contributions! Hope you're doing well.

@evolutionmoto 2 ай бұрын

Missed you last week, man! It’s not looking good for us down here in so cal rain wise this winter :(. This winter is probably going to be high and dry.

@Stormsurf001 2 ай бұрын

Hi Evolution - Thanks so much for the double contribution! I do appreciate it. Yeah, It seems like the rain line was at the Canada border, then it fell to the North CA border, and now has fallen to maybe San Jose. We'll see if it goes further south. And then there's the whole question of whether the seasons are just delayed, or is this just going to be a very slow (surf wise) and dry year. I'm sort of thinking the latter. Maybe some decent snow pack (85% of normal). Guess we'll see.

@timkasten343 2 ай бұрын

Thanks Mark!

@Stormsurf001 2 ай бұрын

Hi Tim - You are most welcome! And thanks for your ongoing contributions.

@claygoose16 2 ай бұрын

Thanks!

@Stormsurf001 2 ай бұрын

Hi Clay - Thank YOU! Hope you have a great week!

@pierremorton1665 2 ай бұрын

Much appreciated! I’m curious why you say you trust the dynamic models more than the statistic models? Also I assume there is a high degree of variability between the quality of each model so do you worry that it affects the combined averages you were showing for the enso predictions?

@Stormsurf001 2 ай бұрын

Hi Pierre - Thanks so much for your contribution! The Dynamic models are fed by real time input from buoys, balloons, weather stations, satellites etc while I believe the statistic model are not (or at least not as much). And the dynamic models are based on pure physics math equations, while the statistic models rely more on 'in this situation in the past, what was the outcome'. So one is a math driven projection and the other is sort of roughly like the farmers almanac. Of course I'm grossly over exaggerating. But the statistic model have always not been very accurate when sudden things change in the atmosphere. It takes a while for them to get dialed into a new situation. And with the big easterly wind burst not arriving in the Equatorial Pacific, a major shift is likely in play. Regardless, yes, you nailed it. I think the statistical model numbers are to modest that in turn drives the consensus model to a milder outcome. But who knows? The next 4 weeks will be interesting.

@coachnate1 2 ай бұрын

Great report Mark surf for Thanksgiving🤙🏾

@Stormsurf001 2 ай бұрын

HI Nate! Happy Thanksgiving to you too. No worries about missing surf for a few days. But by later in the weekend we should be in business. Can't wait!

@barrjohnm 2 ай бұрын

Aloha Mark, Great forecast as always thanks so much. scored today at Gas Chambers was perfect about 4 foot and glassy. hope that you are scoring there n California. Have a great Thanksgiving with your family. Take care and we can talk later next week :)

@Stormsurf001 2 ай бұрын

Hi John - Yeah I looked on the cam at that area in the morning. Nice clean swell hitting there. You are gonna score over the next week. Lot's of surf heading your way. Lesser energy over here. Hope you have a great Thanksgiving too! See you next week!

@barrjohnm 2 ай бұрын

@@Stormsurf001 Yeah today was great as well, a little bt smaller than the other day, but still amazing. am sorry to hear that the surf s smaller there n California. Have a great turkey day on Thursday!

@rayvelasco2059 2 ай бұрын

Most Excellent ¿ I go to Fort Point to watch some of the So Cal surfers come north to visit relatives over Thanksgiving weekend. The dangerous situations they get in are amusing ¿

@Stormsurf001 2 ай бұрын

Hi Ray - Ha ha Yeah that is a great place to watch disasters. Can't say I've very surfed it though. Hope you have a great Thanksgiving!

@willduncan3865 2 ай бұрын

Why does it seem like a solidish south swell (ie 2.3ft @ 15sec) can be drowned out and masked by a small wind NW swell (ie 5ft @ 9 sec) at the points in Santa Cruz? Is the offshore current from the nw swells being so close to shore affect how the waves break at these spots? It just seems like when an equally powerful NW swell and SW show up in SC the NW spots are way bigger then the SW spots. *for most of the spots*

@Stormsurf001 2 ай бұрын

Hi Duncan - Great question! That is the big issue with Santa Cruz in the summer, the presence of windswell and southern hemi swell. Any meaningful windswell pretty much either buries the southern hemi swell or at least trashes it. The reason is that the swell period of windswell, say 8-10 secs versus the swell period of the southern hemi swell (15-17 secs) and the distance the southern hemi swell has to travel results in one set every 20 minutes versus the windswell that has sets hitting every 3 minutes. Whenever the southern hemi swell does show, it gets either trashed by the windswell overrunning it or just warbled beyond the point of rideabilty. Yeah, I've kinda decided not to surf SC if there is any decent windswell in the water. This entire early summer season was ruined by windswell. But like you said, there are plenty of other places to surf.