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We're talking about a striking argument by Nick Bostrom which shows that the probability of us being simulations is actually quite high...
For those who have seen the video and want to better understand, here is a summary restates the central idea. Consider the following two theses:
(1) Technological maturity cannot be achieved.
(2) Technological maturity can be attained, but no civilization having reached it uses it to create simulations of consciousness in large numbers.
Nick Bostrom's simulation argument consists only of proving that if (1) and (2) are false, then it follows:
(3) It is almost certain that we are computer simulations.
With regard to the equal distribution of probabilities, I should have been more precise in my way of presenting things, but the idea is as follows. We must ask these questions: given the information available today, what probability do you assign to Scenario 1, and what probability do you assign to Scenario 2? (I am referring to epistemic probability here, not actual probability - see "le grain de philo" on freedom to clarify that.)
It seems difficult to assign extremely high probabilities (e.g., the sum of which exceeds 99.9%). Even if we can lean more heavily in favor of one, is it to the point we assign more than 99.9%? I do not think so; it seems to me think the best information available today do not allow us to give scenarios 1 and 2 probabilities that sum up to to 100%; and Bostrom's argument says that the remaining probability is that of scenario 3; which is far greater than 0%; and that is remarkable.
In other words, from what we know today, we must assign to each of the 3 scenarios probabilities that are far from zero. By default and to be a little quick, we could distribute the probabilities evenly over the three scenarios, but this is simply to give an order of magnitude and not to give an exact value. In fact, Bostrom estimated the probability of scenario 3 to be around 20% (more precisely, he said that it seemed irrational to estimate this probability to be less than 20%).
To go further, here is the site which presents everything there is to know about the simulation argument:
www.simulation-...
Thumbnail: Agent Smith (The Matrix) - Hersson Piratoba
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