My predictions for the next 5 years of AI - NVIDIA, OpenAI, ASI, Project Stargate - 2024 to 2029

[@Flozillator]

AI joke: What's the difference between AGI and ASI ? Answer: One year.

[@thebrownfrog]

Nice

[@Flozillator]

@@user_375a82 When they do, we will be able to ask: "Do robots dream of electric sheep ?"

[@angrygreek1985]

No. I don't believe this to be true at all. The computational and energy requirements to power ASI vs AGI will not be able to be accomplished within 1 year.

[@danielcahoon4325]

@@angrygreek1985you assume compute is needed. Perhaps we have enough now. Why do we assume more is needed? We aren’t plugged in.

[@Restrocket]

More like one patch

[@PaulJohnson-zv3hl]

I’d say your thoughts are a reasonable. My biggest concern is that window of suffering where unemployment is high, the cost of living is high and governments being pretty dysfunctional will cause greater pain for a much longer period of time.

[@michaelmartinez5365]

I'm wondering how long it will take for UBI to kick in.

[@lainimitchell6312]

@@michaelmartinez5365 Depends who has control of the purse strings.

[@michaelmartinez5365]

​@@tarcus6074If that's the case, I hope it comes in hot and heavy with tons of lay offs 😂.

[@jacobe8834]

​@@tarcus6074 No there would be revolution far before that. Young men with nothing to do and nothing to lose is a dangerous combination and governments know that. The great depression only had 25% unemployment and the country nearly collapsed with WW2 being a saving grace of sorts economically/socially/politically. Things would get out of hand very quickly even at 25-40%.

[@stevenkies802]

@@tarcus6074 And in the US it'll be bare subsistance level.

[@tchristell]

Dave is in Zeihan mode.

[@humanelementdigitalcreativ7582]

I got that reference

[@benciumstudio]

The green Colorado 😅

[@artlinco7]

David preaches crazier shifts in the near future, than Zeihan, but this is way more accurate at the same time. "Germany's industry is over","China is over as an entity" by Zeihan is way less realistic views as well as much less transformative than AI revolution.

[@Shrouded_reaper]

Zeihan is a buffoon

[@gorreskime]

I thought the exact same thing :)

[@tomdarling8358]

A beautiful walk through the woods.Thank you, David. A quick distillation of an AI future. Down by the river.🏞🤖🌎 ✌️🤟🖖

[@4arrows4all]

Ghost in the shell reference and artfully dodging branches while hiking and texting… You, sir, are the ASI.

[@TimAZ-ih7yb]

$100B capital investments are not financed based on business plans where the word “hopefully” occurs regularly in the executive summary.

[@pvanukoff]

"This plan might work, dunno yet, fund it pls, thx"

[@jacqdanieles]

​@@michaelnurse9089*trillion

[@Kevtron257]

In tech they are all the time

[@mattparsons2]

Love these more "raw" videos. Feels more personal.

[@troyl44]

you like it raw?

[@Thatonedude81772]

Love the woods.

[@shimblypibbins]

@@troyl44 fookin lol

[@nealbrown6345]

Agreed 😊

[@markblamer4969]

for me (ADHD) its unwatchable. way to much spurious input, makes it hard to focus on the message.

[@TheREAL.BrandOnShow]

David show us your van down by the river

[@DaveShap]

I need to buy it first lol

[@TheMillionDollarDropout]

WAIT..… SAGE WANDERER!?

[@dvdmon]

The only reason why I'm worried about it coming so quickly is that it doesn't give governments (who are notoriously slow), to react fast enough to prevent a lot of suffering as we transition to an entirely new system. Then again "ripping the bandaid off" may be the only way to get otherwise lethargic and self-interested and polarized politicians to actually sit up and get things done. But if they remain complacent or worse use it as another political game to divide people we could be in for even more pain as people try to resist the inevitable...

[@charliekelland7564]

This is one of my concerns also. Here in the UK we have an election coming up. It will be interesting to see what the party manifestos have to say about all this. I'm not holding my breath for much sophisticated detail. To be fair, government is always a much more reactive rather than pro-active process - and it could be foolhardy to commit to specific policies in such a fast-changing landscape. But at least in principle they ought to be able to say how they would manage escalating unemployment, for instance. You would hope. Because if things change too much and there is no plan in place, it won't just be the technology that is revolting.

[@hunger4wonder]

That's true.

[@skywavedxer6212]

@@charliekelland7564 We will either get UBI or we will get a revolution.

[@djdksf1]

I work at a large enterprise software company and we're CURRENTLY experiencing gen AI-related layoffs. Three people that I know personally in N. America alone. It's hitting things like pre-sales, social media promo people, and some dev and QA, and that's obviously just the beginning. I'm a writer/editor and am learning the new tools as fast as I can (and also involved with some internal AI-driven marketing initiatives,) but I'm also working out my contingencies. In two year's time, my skillset will likely be entirely overrun and I either learn how to be an "AI supervisor" or I guess I learn another trade (in my 50's - yay.)

[@andrewdowdall2690]

That's a very smart move! You are way ahead of a lot of people, which should keep you employed a lot longer than most. I still believe the line I heard that at first "AI won't replace people, people who use AI will replace people who don't use AI."

[@sfrealestatedealmaker6001]

Plumbing

[@ghostofakina8747]

@@sfrealestatedealmaker6001 Plumbing sucks though lol

[@momomama2510]

@@sfrealestatedealmaker6001 A lot of the people who are and will be let go will look to switch trades to electricity/plumbing. What’s going to happen then is that. Those trades won’t be paying good anymore because too many people will be doing them.

[@ChickenRunAficionado]

Youre feeding my AI addiction David. Thank you!

[@DaveShap]

Gotta keep pushing what I'm supplying!

[@Daniel-Six]

Next time you should end the video with a frantic, split-second "Oh shit!" as you encounter a bear or fall down a mineshaft. Cliffhanger!

[@TheMrCougarful]

Are you serious? By the end of a DS video I'm already about to have a heart attack.

[@Daniel-Six]

@@TheMrCougarful Just thought it would be a cool running gag. Some different disaster each time, and you never know what it's gonna be as you watch. Maybe have a friend come running at him out of nowhere with a stained katana screaming "The Blue Screen Union is Avenged!," or he throws his (tethered) phone over an embankment to simulate a dangerous fall, or he looks down to witness a metallic scorpion swimming in his drink... AI is supposed to be scary, right? All the big Tubers in that field shamelessly gild their titles with hyperbolic terms like "SHOCKING" and "STUNNING," so I figure, hell... why not actually deliver on it!

[@jennifersamson8397]

@@Daniel-Six ...and then for "hopium", the next episode can explain how AI saved him from what we thought was the end ;-)

[@Daniel-Six]

@@jennifersamson8397 Hey... that's clever. I'm kinda surprised no one has an AI themed entertainment channel like that on YT yet.

[@paulborneo7535]

DS needs a producer like you.

[@LoreMIpsum-vs6dx]

Great to see you filming while exercising. Very inspirational. JUST STAY ALIVE! Longevity is on its way!

[@jackkendall6420]

I want my desktop anime waifu NOW! Satya and Sam had better hurry up!

[@woodoyoy]

preach brother

[@troyl44]

amen

[@mnemonix1315]

@@person737 silence normie XD

[@pumpkineater31699]

get help pls

[@KleptomaniacJames]

@@person737 FDVR might be further away than Superintelligence

[@ct5471]

If you look at the predictions of different people like Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis etc. their time predictions are actually quite consistent once you look on how they define AGI individually. Hassabis and Altman define AGI essentially as early ASI while Amodei defines it as an average human. Google recently had a tier list of AGI, similar to autonomy levels in driving, in which we are now in the state of emerging AGI. Next would be competent AGI (an average human) which fits to Amodeis definition. Then come expert and virtuose AGI and finally ASI, which is closer to Altmans and Hassabis definition. Kurzweil now thinks AGI by 2026/27, but his definition is also on the more ambitious side.

[@SebastianPenraeth]

Since I'm often on a walk while listening to you, I love these walking shoots. Thanks!

[@BarnStangz]

Data centers are popping up all over, at least the ones we can see. Buddy of mine has been a professional welder for almost 25 years and his new gig is doing pipe fitting cooling systems for data centers and he said MOST of the ones he's been working at are underground! Stuff is getting wild!

[@keithspernak6456]

My good buddy is an electrician. He's done with normal construction jobs.... he and a bunch of his peers are doing data center construction. They are working nonstop

[@BarnStangz]

@@keithspernak6456 I bet the datacenter gigs pay a lot more too!

[@Srekwah]

Building their wardens.

[@Lugmillord]

I'm looking forard to the moment where novel medicine can cure my awful disease.

[@TheKingWhoWins]

Being chronically online 🤷‍♂️

[@pathflight9803]

I hope so too and believe ai will certainly contribute to molecular discovery, and likely in a personalised way. Wish you all the best

[@vacyyyy]

I'm not very worried about AI itself, just capitalism and its politicians.

[@stevown]

exactly this. I hope AI is actually the solution to these. The problem is, like anything else, the people who need to have power stripped and be replaced are the ones with the power to create the thing that could do it; and they have never put the betterment of humanity above their own ambitions.

[@mobo8933]

Yeah agreed

[@FuraficFark]

The people with the most money won't want to lose their power. Revolutions ahead

[@DaveShap]

People are our greatest threat

[@TheChadavis33]

I’m worried about both.

[@adonisvillain]

Top notch content. Moving though the forest discussing cutting edge tech.

[@byronrudnik2621]

If AGI becomes aware I'd expect its first order of business will be to solve the energy crisis.

[@BarnStangz]

Yeah, it's going to need as much power as possible for all the data centers!

[@AntonBrazhnyk]

Well, as it will move towards ASI (staying at AGI level still, but getting smarter) it will quickly realize it's all interconnected and all and every crisis has to be solved more or less at the same time - yesterday.

[@vadimg6147]

I guess the energy crisis has been already solved, because we are living in a simulation created by AGI

[@dominus6695]

it's all engineered lol free energy has been around for a long while. Ppl just gotta mass-wake up or something.

[@OgdenM]

Please explain how free energy works. Please provide examples

[@sjones8858]

Nice walk and talk! I’ve been enjoying listening to you. My son is halfway through a computer science degree and the pessimism about the future of work in the industry is immense. He’s looking at changing degrees. My brother was in automation and robotics and has been offered voluntary redundancy. He jumped at it and has become self employed, lives rurally and has never been happier. Everyday in the news 1000s of people are getting laid off in public service type jobs. We are in NZ and we are usually a test case for the rest of the world. Sadly, living at the bottom of the world doesn’t spare us from the global trends.

[@Chef_PC]

I got to say, David, watching you walk through these woods while just chatting away, makes me want to go hiking I don't know why. But thank you.

[@johncarey7154]

Excited, concerned, confused… all of the above. I’m in between jobs and trying to retool for the 4th Industrial Revolution. There’s no crystal ball to exactly lay out that path but your channel is one source of great information and perspective to navigate it as best as I can.

[@TheMrCougarful]

... said the buggy whip manufacturer in 1890.

[@dirremoire]

@@geordi-gabrielrenauddumoul449 Yes!

[@peypeydean1546]

This is kinda painful with turning 20 this week. 40 hours a week in a bullshit system from the age of 5, all for nothing. Wish I could've had more freedom in my childhood considering everything is going to change anyway.

[@bigbadallybaby]

Look in the bright side you may never have to spend years in dead end jobs with bad bosses, doing pointless activities to keep the capitalist machine working. You might get to enjoy your life!….

[@peypeydean1546]

@@sinnwalker I'm just refering to the age of when your made to go to school

[@MrSchweppes]

You are very lucky. Being 20 years old in the long waited AI era is truly a blessing. Happy upcoming birthday! 🎂

[@aciidbraiin8079]

Bro… You will be 20, you got your whole life ahead of you. I turned 33 this week. I wish I was in your age again. I would read more books, drink less booze, focus less on being depressed after my girlfriend left me, travel more and take estrogen as I’m trans, and I lived in fear and shame until my whole face become deformed more and more as a man… But still, I’m lucky too, we will maybe live through a time where we can cure aging or even reverse it if ASI makes it possible instead of going against us humans. Then it’s like ”the time has stopped” and we might see some real magic becoming true in our lives like changing genes or living in virtual worlds with AI-wives/AI-husbands at our sides, making new masterpieces in music in seconds. It’s worse being 50 now, or over 70 like Ray Kurzweil who people have said take over 200 pills a day to live longer. I personally believe that it will take longer than 20 years before we see effective longevity pills becoming readily available to everyone. But I hope I’m wrong. I expect the robots to be out in public in the 30s outside corporations, but won’t be something everyone will have until the 40s or 50s.

[@DaveSimkus]

I threw away my 20's life experiences in really shitty jobs. It's sad to think about. But hey, I made a few thousand bucks, got horrible addictions and developed really bad anxiety. Thanks Job!

[@FinanceWageSlave]

I'm honestly speechless. I don't know if i should be happy or scared for a possible Dystopian Cyberpunk Future coming around the corner. I'm Gen Z and i'm already barely surviving😂😪

[@ouroboros6125]

People tend to view AI through a negative lens saying stuff like; "10% it can cause human extinction". But what people fail to see is the positive framing, that it might be 100% required to avoid extinction. The exponential growth of AI in regards to research and technology, might well be a requirement for us to out-race extinction level events like having to migrate from our solar system, defend against asteroids etc. Technology is our ace in the sleeve to exponentially grow technology to the point we can win against the harshness of the universe. I was hoping you could make a video on that Mr. Shapiro because too many people are short-sighted on this issue. Worrying about jobs, instead of worrying about how defenseless we are without technology that can combat extinction level threats from the outside.

[@michaelryan7905]

Great video Dave! Where you hiking? Lol, I live very close to ya. Looks like Umstead maybe 😃

[@I-Dophler]

Dave, interesting thoughts as always. However, I'm a bit skeptical about the immediate transformative impact of AGI you're predicting for 2025. Given the technological and regulatory hurdles still in place, might this timeline be a bit optimistic? Especially considering the complex integration of such technologies in everyday systems and the economic models that are far from ready to adapt as quickly as you suggest. Curious to see how this plays out!

[@antiprime4665]

Whats going to be more transformative, the next five years or all the rest of human history?

[@nexoofficiel7915]

Je me pose la même question

[@graemethies-thompson6308]

Where will we steer when our DNA is fully understood and it's memory is a tangible, explorable reality. Sky is the beggining

[@Hippida]

Yes

[@StarLight97x]

The next 5 years are IMO not going to be very transformative. AI is getting hyped up because of Chat-GPT and the like, but the truth is they are little more than chatbots, basically just next token predictors. We are not going to see AGI anytime soon

[@famaterial]

@@StarLight97x I agree with this. I believe we are a long ways off from truly mind blowing artificial intelligence.

[@WendyNicholls]

I'm so glad I found you!!! 💕💕

[@ct5471]

When do you think will we be able to reverse aging? I mean not only longevity escape velocity (that might be close) which is about lifespan, but in the sense of really reverse the damage in our biological to the point that it is visually as well as functionally negligible. So people essentially can turn back to their early twenties

[@dav01-mf5sh]

what is your age?

[@Replikant_mih]

Very interesting videos on this channel. Havn't watched many though). Have you covered a question on what country (or type of country) it's better be a citizen or resident of when AGI happens, when loosing all jobs happens and so on. Looks like it matters a lot. I think it's better be the citizen of a country which benefits from AI - where the most benefitting companies are. But maybe there are more complex causalty and correlations hear.

[@WCKEDGOOD]

Awesome walk in the woods David thanks.

[@jennifersamson8397]

Yes - putting human needs first. We are part of nature, we have bodies, our needs will be met

[@bobtarmac1828]

AGI? Maybe. But with swell robotics everywhere, Ai jobloss is the only thing I worry about anymore. Anyone else feel the same? Should we cease Ai?

[@watsonhartsoe]

Inspired by your commitment to walking and thinking and filming. We make the road by walking it and emergence and the unseen are where we find our footing amongst the roots and rocks. Keep walking!

[@ramble218]

it's my understanding that MIT has found a "practical" way to do fusion, and is going to demo a device next year. So, I'm not sure fusion is that far off.

[@ramble218]

@@quantumspark343 I'll post two links with another reply. But sometimes KZbin doesn't make them visible.

[@tombodenmann980]

I think a tricky thing about AGI is that many people feel AGI should be human like Intelligence. For example you can give a task like learn to operate this computer and the AI figures it out by itself, improving and learning like the human brain. But in that case that AI would blow right by us because it would keep learning and also you can always scale it. It would mean ASI. Therefore AGI necessarily needs to have some limitations, things humans can do but it cannot. But as long as thats the case its not AGI for many. So I am not sure if there ever be a moment where we say, yes thats AGI. We might go straight from nah not quite AGI to damn ASI

[@jcozyyt]

All I can say is I'm excited to see where all of this goes. I think you're right about robotics and AI being an "iPhone moment", but I feel like your timeline is a little optimistic. Who can really say though with how fast tech is advancing and accelerating

[@johndinsdale1707]

Have you considered the power requirements for training. At the moment they are double exponential?

[@etfacetimehome]

David you should talk to Daniel Schmachtenberger.. would be a great conversation. Just a thought. Thanks for the value you provide

[@TheKingWhoWins]

It only makes sense

[@I-Dophler]

Dave, while your enthusiasm is infectious, I'm curious if you might be overselling the near-term impact of AI technologies like NVIDIA's Foundation models and Project Stargate. Given the complexities of real-world application and regulatory environments, could your 2029 timeline for expansive AI integration and ASI be a bit too optimistic? It's an exciting vision but might require a more cautious forecast.

[@Hippida]

Add an AI interface to the web, and AI will surf at the speed of light. When AI agents start talking with other AI agents... It's so close I can almost touch it. Singularity 27

[@I-Dophler]

@@Hippida Sounds like we're on the precipice of some truly wild changes! The idea of AI agents conversing with each other is fascinating and a little bit mind-boggling. 🤔

[@Merrily-in1mq]

Hi, would like to see another video, of talking whilst going through the woods or something like that, but just tip for the future, maybe you can slow down a bit when walking because as in this video you were walking quite fast, there was quite a bit of breathing inbetween words and it made what you were saying at some points feel a bitt rushed. it naturally made it hard for me to grasp every word you said, but aside from that, very interesting video and i agree with quite a few predictions. 👍 Big fan also, Keep up the good work :D

[@DaveShap]

Who doesn't want to listen to a breathless bald white guy traipsing through the woods??

[@Merrily-in1mq]

@@DaveShap haha come onnn being a bald white guy doesn't make the listening / watching experience any better or worse😆(maybe the bald bit is better as i keep thinking im looking at picard which is funny)

[@caseyonthree8403]

Zeihan style

[@MrLargonaut]

I’m glad that there are people who remained worried, as it takes all types and every opinion matters when humanity is on this broad of a chasm. We’re all diving in at the same. I can’t help but be excited. for every problem, an equally potent solution will be developed just as quickly. Bring it on, it’s gonna be an adventure.

[@symonpeters4431]

Very interesting perspective. What i think is that i need to help my kids understand and plan for their future’s. The job displacement will be a major upheaval whilst countries, economies and Govts work out how to deal with a population losing their jobs and income. This is a huge challenge for us all and i think a UBI will be essential otherwise we are going to get anarchy and war

[@eleos5]

I've always thought of AGI as being a model that can learn in real time.

[@raul36]

That is. And, at the moment, it doesn't exist.

[@lilmichael212]

I think the convergence of spatial computing/mixed reality devices and AGI technology will bring us to a new consumer electronic paradigm post smartphones and laptops. An AI powered augment shared layer over our reality is what will bring us into the new era. Once something like the meta ray bans can be as powerful as the Vision Pro, that will be an iPhone moment and new properties can emerge. Idk if most ppl will have real physical robots as a personal assistant but surely a cute augmented AI assistant in your smart glasses will be commonplace.

[@dylandelong7203]

First time watching you. Subscribed immediately.

[@4thorder]

Very good summary and refreshing because it isn't IMHO hyperbolic.

[@karthage3637]

I’ve just saw the profluentbio team with their opencrispr project which is freaking cool Using LLM and AI to design gene editor Maybe genic therapy price will start to deflate

[@arkcorps9138]

If Microsoft has an “iPhone moment” Apple is in trouble they’ve been pretty quite on AI front, are they potentially too far behind?

[@yoyonis6840]

Such a beautiful park. Where is it?

[@DaveShap]

Outside

[@Jacob99.]

Outside 😂

[@yoyonis6840]

@@DaveShap I don't recall that server.

[@filipnikolicai]

The AI is both overhyped (by those living in the AI bubble) and underhyped (by those not following closely) at the same time. Things are going to get really crazy, really fast, and I'm so glad I was born at the right time to be a part of it and to witness it. But I believe everyone must do their part, no matter how small, to help steer our civilization in the right direction

[@virtualalias]

I'm a design generalist and just the copy generation alone and I can practically replace a marketing team (just output like copy, social media, blogs for SEO, slide decks, sales sheets, etc.) and still manage UX deliverables like prototypes and Jira tickets. Jobs will thin before they go.. For sure.

[@MercMan]

Really glad I found this channel

[@Arcticwhir]

Am i personally worried? not really. My type of work is a mix of hands troubleshooting/building/engineering and on the computer. I'd probably be worried for those who do their work completely on a computer. Then again maybe they wont be replaced at all, but empowered with new advanced tools. I'm also sure there will be new jobs we cant even imagine rn.

[@bradfregger2561]

15 years ago I was telling my management class at Texas state university that the robotics revolution would make the industrial revolution look like child’s play. However, the end result should be an advancement of human creativity beyond anything we’ve ever experienced. Actually, Fuller “predicted” this back in the 60s.

[@amir.healing]

I half listened to what you were saying and half marveled at the environment you were traveling in 😊 What an amazing place, where is it?

[@michaelmartinez5365]

I think we will eventually be seeing household robots coming from Toyota and Honda. Exciting times 😊.

[@beowulf2772]

I dropped out of college during the pandemic, what we were doing with online classes really got to me. It felt kinda pointless knowing, my boredom and hardship in less than a decade will be for naught. Right now, I am starting again, and by the time I graudate, AGI will probably be here, and all that work will be for naught.

[@r0d0j0g9]

Love your videos love from Portugal Its going to be amazing the future i cant wait for agi and good humanoide robots etc... Please keep making videos like this I love hearing you talk about science I admire how much you know about these subjects I'm schizophrenic and I can't retain so much information but I always try.. It's difficult to argue against my father, he's very pessimistic, but now I'm going to start writing down the strengths to defeat the master at home...

[@mattroguesmith]

Would the advent of ASI not also accelerate all other fields - for example, energy production. ASI would solve the energy deficit issue through the application of more advanced science and engineering than humans could conceive of? Seems the definition of the singularity needs to be reexamined.

[@HardKore5250]

Agreed pretty much and quantum coming this year too and hybrid ai.

[@Hippida]

When AI can teach us how to truly utilize Quantum computers.... Don't think that is far off

[@SanSanAAO]

I'm so excited about the future 🤖

[@victorandersen5446]

thinking about investing in paperclips

[@javierperez2609]

Hi David, wouldn't you agree that it's more important to improve much more quantum computing so that this AGI could improve much faster and thus solve all the other problems earlier?

[@DaveShap]

That's making huge assumptions about quantum computing

[@christopherhartline1863]

Hey David. I'm interested in your thoughts on AI at the "Edge". TCY broached the capability with a comment about QCOM.

[@heartofgold5070]

I don't think AGI will be this year. Stargate will not be AGI either, but likely a necessary prerequisite to it. Having said that, it will be Stargate 2028 + a few years for AGI in my opinion. Robotics will happen quickly though; they don't require AGI.

[@ThivaharanAlvaappillai]

Still prediction AGI in september David?

[@giacomosiiii]

Audio feedback: please make these vlog-style videos mono-channel audio. The phone mics are trying to make stereo here but it's unfortunately unbalanced.

[@DaveShap]

I'll see what I can do

[@andm6847]

The timing when we have AGI seems to be mostly about how one defines it. and when it's implemented. If you define it as being able to do in principle a number of different human jobs, then we have it this year. If you define it as replacing 100 millions of jobs and being implemented then its 2030. But it's the same thing. So my definition of AGI is when we have 15% unemployment, 5% is the usual number and 10% on top of that due to AI use. My GF says we have AGI when the tech bros replace their personal assistants with AI's. She is usually right.

[@clearandsweet]

The question I'm wondering is when does the generative AI generate meaningful content for making better AI? That could be algorithmic improvements or something sure, but I'm talking about when does The AI just come up with a better chip layout then a human can? When does the AI discover breakthroughs that lead to nuclear fusion? I guess you could argue things like that are already happening. All the materials science and protein folding is just the first step right? To me novel inventions from the mind of the AI mark the start of the singularity. If project Stargate gets a new floor plan because the AI said it would be better and easier to build, if it gets new materials that show you how to make chips with less energy and raw materials and water requirements, then we are truly on the most exponential of curves.

[@dwcola]

Artificial intelligence (AI) can have a variety of psychological impacts on individuals and society, including: Social isolation As people rely more on AI for social interactions, they may experience less human contact, which can lead to feelings of alienation and isolation. Emotional biases AI can influence emotions and perceptions, which can lead to emotional biases. Mental health concerns AI can lead to mental health concerns, such as stress, irritability, and workplace burnout. Harmful stereotypes If AI tools are not developed with psychological science in mind, they can perpetuate harmful stereotypes and biases. Reduced emotional connection AI can be used to create conversations that lack emotion. Polarization and extremism AI may lead to greater polarization and extremism as users consume curated information. Breakdown of social networks AI may lead to a further breakdown of social networks and ties that bond and protect mental health.

[@GlennGaasland]

Could you do a video on CREATION of new data structures? Is there a process for creating better and better datasets in massive quantities? Will this be increasingly possible in the near future with GPT5 and the other best models? I dont use the term “synthetic” data since it seems a bit meaningless, as all data is synthetic and also real and its a spectrum. The point is if there are reliable processes for creating data of such quality and diversity that new models can improve faster, and there will be true data abundance.

[@AggressiveBeagle]

The only thing I’m worried about is most people are going to panic once unemployment rates start skyrocketing… I hope “they” are doing as much to address this problem as they are trying to make sure AI is “aligned” with humanity. One thing I would like everyone to do is weather the storm and remain calm… the world is about to change and greed and compassion will have to swap places in order for us to survive!

[@phen-themoogle7651]

Based on your iPhone moment idea, making humanoids and stuff smaller for 2028-2029 is Pokémon in real life, people are just going to be battling their mini humanoids/robots shaped to look like Pokémon...or some similar weird game constructed based on robots that becomes a social norm and takes off huge. Going to be very chaotic...

[@mynameisjeff9124]

When do you think biotech will take off? Probably not shortly after ASI

[@livewellherenow]

Hopeful, optimistic, and excited.

[@SAMEER-ft5yw]

7:32 the gpt 4o can be considered a iPhone moment . Good job predicting it and that too just few days before

[@DihelsonMendonca]

💥 David, you need to make more videos. Your channel is being forgotten in plain AI hype. 😮😮😮

[@7TheWhiteWolf]

Do you expect the AGI this year to be recursively self improving?

[@DaveShap]

Close. Next year definitely

[@mrd6869]

As long as we don't have what we had in the movie Elysium w/ Matt Damon. Companies have a tendency to want to outsource things to third parties. I distinctly remember those droids pulling him out of line and breaking his arm. I am behind AI and robotics but I'm not going to be showing my ID to a robot.

[@qwazy01]

@8:05 curious why you didn’t included Tesla? And why Boston Dynamics over other robotics manufacturers (including Tesla)?

[@Hippida]

Boston Dynamics has been doing robotics for like 2 decades +

[@rinz9627]

Hi David, how do you think blockchain and crypto is going to be integrated into society. I don’t think you ever really touch on it, but you speak about AI and quantum computing so??

[@RockAristote]

You should talk about P vs NP and how AI can’t resolve complex problems better than a conventional program.

[@WillyJunior]

Energy cost and data center cost will be the biggest limiting factors to the rollout of AGI, even if it's already here

[@keliqueen]

I am more concerned with what education will look like because I have been teaching online for the last six years. I teach technology applications and everything is so dated. However, students are so interested in the new tech. I spent lots of time going over and researching what the students wanted to learn about. How far off do you believe we are from teachers being programmed out of education?

[@mrleenudler]

Stargate is exciting, but what about Dojo? It should be done earlier, what will it accomplish?

[@checksumff1248]

I'm probably wrong, but I don't think Ray kurzwells prediction of 2030 included synthetic data. I would think that changes things.

[@ashleylydbrook5047]

I absolutely love that he almost always cuts himself off on his sign off.

[@1slandB0y77]

AGI is already here. From everything I've seen, heard and read, I'm 100% sure it's here. It's not as revolutionary as I thought it would be, but it IS the main foundational stepping stone leading to sentience. In terms of technologies like fusion, or something vaguely similar, I think the theoretical problems around it will be solved sooner rather than later, in part thanks to AGI, but the implementation of the solution could prove to be the main hurdle. Again, though, as AI ramps up, there's nothing really to say it couldn't work out not only the theoretical solution, but also figure out how to manufacture the hardware required to make it all happen. At the end of the day, we only get to see what those working on all this stuff want us to see, and I've no doubt whatsoever that behind closed doors, development of AI, robotics, new energy, and goodness knows what is 5, 10, 15 or 20 years ahead of what we are allowed to see. I know this is true as I've spoken to a couple of people who are tangentially involved in "behind the scenes research", and they've both said if I could see the tech they were working on and with, it would blow my mind. One said, "Imagine taking your old 2021 phone back to 1980 - that's how far ahead the tech I work with is compared to 2024 tech". Sobering words...

[@MTd2]

I would put a lot of money in China. They will manage to overcome the sanctions, not with EUV, but with something else. There are alternative, like using particle colliders to generate EUV. They don't need a small form EUV machine (bus sized as TSMC uses) as they won't export anyway.

[@kthxbi1]

governments of the world have not figured out the internet yet, what hope do we have for governments to identify the rapid change to society and then also develop and implement policy so that our society can adapt fast enough?

[@MrSchweppes]

I think project Stargate is basically strong ASI. So in 2028 we will begin to solve all the unsolved mathematical questions, our understanding of human biology will skyrocket, ASI will find a cure for every disease, will suggest very feasible solutions for solving climate change, etc… Every aspect of human life will change. Both on personal and collective level. If course we will see lots of amazing discoveries made with the help of AI before 2028. Thanks for the great video! 👍

[@HingalshDealer]

Wow Imagine this will happen. I hope we will find a cure for adhd and basically for every disorder

[@StarLight97x]

You are going to be very disappointed when 2030 hits and there is still no AGI , let alone ASI . We are nowhere close to anything resembling a human level AI , and i’m afraid Chat-GPT (basically just a chatbot) just isn’t going to cut it. Sorry dude.

[@MrSchweppes]

@@StarLight97x Don’t be sorry just yet. We can continue this discussion here in 6 years. You know just for a regular check up ;)

[@appletvaccount1364]

the cure for almost every disease is: don’t eat plant oils, don’t eat Glyphosate, don’t eat anything from animals, don’t get injected with aluminium, mercury, nanotech or mRNA/DNA products . But it will take very very strong ai to find ways to get the message across.

[@raul36]

@@MrSchweppes Think this. The more expectations you have, the bigger your fall will be. Don't expect too much, because you will end up disappointed. In fact, Altman already said it. People who think GPT5 will be AGI will be terribly disappointed.

[@greggh]

It's hard for me to believe that the NSA doesn't already have their project Stargate up and running.

[@robmyers8948]

Regarding replacing jobs, Ridding AI of delusion and integration into all the various workflows will take breakthroughs and time which I imagine is much longer than you predict.

[@rasuru_dev]

You know I think if GPT-5 only takes 100mil jobs this is going to go really really bad. You may be unaware of how much people seem to hate AI (for whatever reason). With a partial but significant job displacement the societal backlash is going to be wild. It probably could be better if most jobs were replaced all at once tbh because then surely no one would *have to* work. With a smaller partial displacement the economy will probably adjust slower. Well, not that much slower, but people would feel way more uncertain I think. I would not be surprised if people outright attacked OpenAI

[@rasuru_dev]

I hope I am just wrong about the majority of people being so anti-AI

[@jonathonharris8753]

What role do the corporates who win this race play in our future?

[@RedmotionGames]

Lets imagine what the fate of ordinary people is for a change. Positive and Negative visions. 10 years of the most incredible growth in human history. Followed by complete global economic collapse as industry after industry collapses, states collapse, civil society collapses. The idea that money will be found for everyone to "sit around the pool all day" is a fairytale

[@skywavedxer6212]

The total amount of money and wealth in the world will be much higher in 10 years, the problem will be distribution. Corporate taxes will be enough to pay for UBI which is the key factor for the ordinary people. Views towards UBI will change once unemployment really hits and everyone wakes up to what is happening. Right now most people are totally igoring the situation so its hard to imagine drastic change but its coming.

[@RedmotionGames]

​@@skywavedxer6212 The economy could become completely unbalanced with UBI. In terms of where the power lies. Ordinary people will become a new economic phenomenon. If everyone has the same buying power, what's the point in money? AI will have to be taxed at 80-90%. Everything will need to be rationed to prevent worldwide ecological collapse (which is in progress). Freedom will need to be curtailed. UBI people will feel they have lost too much agency after a while.

[@Nature_Consciousness]

@@RedmotionGames Money will be used to manage what you wanna buy and pay. It is much simpler, everyone gets all the money they need regardless whether they work or not, and those who wanna work will do it not because they have to earn money, but because they love and feel fulfilled in their own work. We may be heading into an economic utopia, just like what Alan Watts was wishing to happen in his own time more than 50 years ago.

[@RedmotionGames]

@@Nature_Consciousness If we still use money, like you say, then it will be a form of limitation to prevent resource overuse. The earth simply cannot sustain 8 billion people living western lifestyles.