Life in 20 years - My 2044 Predictions - AGI, Fusion, Biotech, Quantum - Milestones and Impacts!

[@CEOofLibertyMutualInsurance]

MSE major here, not a lot of people know what we do haha. You're right about the chip fab work, most of my classmates are gonna work at Micron when they graduate and I have a job lined up at a fab making silicon carbide chips. Computational methods for material discovery/design are very limited - one of my class' senior capstone projects is computational and that group has to use many workarounds to get even a supercomputer to compute what they need. Because quantum computing is best used for quantum processes, and the quantum processes of materials is what makes computational methods so difficult, quantum computing is set to revolutionize material discovery. Combine that with AI that basically has a very accurate intuition of what properties a novel material would have, and you're talking about 100x-ing our current level of material discovery. This has downstream effects on basically anything - better batteries, better chips, much more sustainable plastics, basically any problem we're facing today will be easier to solve if we have a 100x material discovery process.

[@DaveShap]

MSE == Material Science Engineering for those not in the know. Thanks for chiming in :)

[@wongralvju]

MSE to make better golf shaft so I can hit further as I age :)

[@eSKAone-]

Exactly. Every so called "scientist" that does not see that the universe is a living thing is just a mechanic. His mind can only process the obvious parts of life before his eyes. Everything is alive. Life does not end at the other side of a cell's membrane. A city is an organism too. There is no isolated system in the universe. It's systems within systems, overlapping each other. God is life itself. Everything in life is connected. We are part of a greater being. Religions are just different languages, they are an attempt to communicate this insight to other humans. With science getting more and more of the picture (macrocosm, microcosm), and people getting educated about it, it will be easier and easier for everyone to understand it. For that:☮️, you have to see this:☯️

[@jf9387]

Exciting prospects, thanks for sharing!

[@MichaelMcDonald-my2np]

​@@DaveShapwith AI these narratives should be figured out by the summer

[@typicaleight099]

As someone who is about to turn 20 I can’t even imagine what life will be like in 5 years let alone 20

[@DaveShap]

You'll be 25 in five years, and 40 in 20 years. I'm a wizard.

[@jacksonmatysik8007]

Yeah. I'm studying finance with debt (8k a year) and I already know my degree will be useless. But I am so optimistic about the hyper abundance future.

[@WhisperingUniverse]

I really hope our optimism is not just a coping mechanism!@@jacksonmatysik8007

[@codfather6583]

Being nearly 50, i know i'm going to be 25 in 20 years :P

[@szymskiPL]

And possibly 220 in 200 years. Cheers

[@Paratzi]

Gonna save this video for the next 20 years to see how well it ages

[@yamenmohammad3617]

You wont lmao

[@freebusycat]

People are promising me flying cars since the 1960's so I guess 90% of his predictions won't happen

[@therandommusicguy4773]

@@freebusycat We can see the progress coming already. That's what's scary about it lol. 10 years ago, AI was basically unspoken about. Now we are getting AI generated text, pictures, and even videos with a higher quality than ever before. Anyone who says it isn't coming is either blind or deluding themselves.

[@freebusycat]

@@therandommusicguy4773 nope, I work with AI and can tell, they're not truly intelligent like us that can reason, they simply look intelligent but they aren't, can you tell the difference? It's like a tr∆ns woman, it looks like a woman but it really isn't a real woman, it lacks essence, so we're very safe from a distopia for a long time

[@Atlas99973]

Love that for you 😅

[@michaelschmitt7055]

I'm a teacher and i couldn't agree more. I'm already using AI and it gave me superpowers! For example: if one of the children likes football, I use AI to create a text about football - simultaneously working on individualised grammar topics. I couldn't do this for everyone without AI

[@Falkov]

Glad to hear that!

[@jamesgaines6676]

This is a fantastic use of AI!

[@Recuper8]

Yeah, teachers really are quickly becoming obsolete. Unless, of course, you consider the babysitting elements.

[@Ef554rgcc]

Please stop using AI to teach children. A.I. is wrong very often and I seriously doubt you can tell the difference every time.

[@Boxing_Gamer]

And the student will use chat gpt to solve it lol

[@ChrisCrompton]

It's the transition period which wont be so rosy. There may be a 10+ year delay between massive job losses from AI efficiency and the government creating new economic policies which help pull these people out of poverty and into thriving meaning-based work.

[@Tubes12AX7k]

IF that actually happens. I have a feeling that the the wealthy and the connected are just going to look out for themselves.

[@Marou446]

@@Tubes12AX7kThey've already said, "You will live in the pods, eat the bugs, own nothing, and be happy." I believe them when they state their intentions.

[@mitri5389]

Yeah, maybe we can move to a 3 day workweek. Instead 😏. I honestly think full-scale automation of everything will be a hell, and by that, I think there will be a class system of elites, and a few of us slaves kept in a reserve. Why would the elite keep us? I'm pretty sure they would create their own utopia filled with natural environments like Adam and eves garden. they already have their own private and secluded environment away from us peasants as much as possible.

[@angryman8823]

Yeah, the government is all for helping people.

[@EVOMAN14]

If the government have anything to do with this then it will be massively delayed, corrupt, expensive

[@MH-kj9hh]

one point of contention, Capitalism is the individual/private ownership of capital, it doesn't just mean that capital exists - so talking about different ownership models is inherently talking about moving away from Capitalism.

[@Shrouded_reaper]

You think the people at the top will allow themselves to be replaced? I doubt this.

[@AutiSam1974]

agreed, eg to be flippant, USSR had abundant industrial plant and machinery and some pretty good tractors actually

[@richardpalu3464]

An area that's im interested in is the utilitilization of capital in the system.of the future.'Old money' or any wealth not used to the most productive outcomes will be a moral imperative. Wealth accumulation for its own sake will be as outdated as any token like gold.

[@zachbohemian]

​@Shrouded_reaper it will happen if they like it or not. It's either done effortlessly or through a revolution

[@Shrouded_reaper]

@zachbohemian They already down 9/10ths of the world's wealth, if not more, mate. You think the plebs will revolt when they are pacified by drugs, pornography, digital media and a weekly UBI allowance? Get real.

[@CodexPermutatio]

One thing is certain: The most important changes of the future (even just 20 years away) are already practically unimaginable.

[@blackmamba___]

Judging from the past, everything we have now will be more smarter, more efficient and more user friendly and some new inventions will come around that doesn’t necessarily reinvent the wheel, but makes it so that wheel is more convenient and abundant.

[@sergefournier7744]

Do you see a lot of flying cars in your area? It's 20 year late...

[@jarivuorinen3878]

@@sergefournier7744Flying car is stupid idea, it brings nothing of value on top of that small plane couldn't do. Inside a city no one will fly anything else than small drones, this is just simple safety issue. The issue persists even if we have foolproof AI controlling these planes or whatever flying cars, you'd need a support structure in case something heavy falls down. Well, now you have a road, or in better case, an overhead train or tram. In rural areas something like flying car could make sense, but it would be a compromise between a plane and a car. In rural areas you can have small airport and a car anyway. Or better yet, AI controlled public transit or taxi system.

[@mnkwazi]

@@jarivuorinen3878 Exactly. The flying cars idea is nuts. LOL

[@tomschuelke7955]

Oh. They are imaginable and well enough understood to clarify that the predictions of this video are mostly out of touch with far to many fundamental well understood developments in the real world, it's very very unlikely they will happen as described. Ai is a full dependend subsystem of our economy and unthinkable without giant economy of scale. But they on their selve are a total dependent subsystem of the whole ecosphere. Andvthisbecosphere is in tremendous overshoot of 70%. Very well documented by thousands of biologists. So let me just copy paste my explanation here from another answer. It's long I know. But a bold statement needs bold explanations As much as I love ai development I do fundamentally disagree with such predictions. I do so even if they seem intrinsically logic. They mostly are totaly out of touch in far to many areas to get real. I would have to post a book here to go into details. But first and foremost these predictions totaly ignore the biophysical reality and our knowledge of some fundamentaly and well understood systemfunctions of our reality in öcology in material flows and energy siences. 1. Our society and economy even if we don't get it in our livings are far more dependend on ecological material flows mining and energy supply as ever before in history. This said just understand that now we use up even renewable materials on a rate much faster as earth can regenerate. 70% faster now. And so we are liquidating our biological global assets drawing down our biological banc account and decimating the biological capacity of the planet. As long as there s still accumulated biomass ore bio stocks we don't feel it untill the system Tipps over into steep decline. This is well understood and has been seen in thousands of ecological events on smaller scale 2. Our economy is a fully dependent and fully integrated subsystem of the larger ecosphere and not! As in many standart economy textbooks explained a mostly seperaded system where the environmental impacts get mitigated and efficiency can decouple our consumption from the environment. In reality we now know in two giant metastudies from 2019. That decoupling at least absolute decoupling is a myth that can't save our planet. And Ai won't solve this. Ai is rather the one special new extension invention that does not only extend our strength like a hammer or our cars our speed, but extends our ability to invent. It just will make extraction and consumption faster. Period. Who ever be leaves that now ai will make our Technik far more efficient ignores the reality that more efficiency is the core of All technical achievements since 1920. This is largely due to jevons paradox. So no silverbullet from ai. So where do we stand now.? We are heavily in ecological overshoot. This is the madtercrysis and one of its many dangerous symptoms is climatechange. Minerals are depeating as we speak and fossil energy esp. Oil is nearing peak oil very fast. IEA tells peak oil is not here yet by counting unconventional stuff like refinery gains, natural gas liquids and biosources as oil ignoring that their usable energy contend is 20% lower. So... We are headed for massemigrations of hundreds of millions of people due to loss of water and soils and weather extreams. Meanwhile biocapacity of the planet is dropping and our main source of energy esp. Oil is very near to all time peak. Hightech is immensely dependent on economy of scale energy and globalization. Still we dream nearly religiously of the savior ai. It just will not happen. Because it's totaly dependend on a healthy biosphere stable climate, peace global trade and enormous energy for all parts of society. Sorry

[@DefenderX]

I'm thinking a lot about what my daughters of 3 and 5 are going to do after they grow up and graduate. Seeing as I can't prevent them from living their lives, the only thing I wish for them is that they grow up with a healthy self esteem, self worth, and find their meaning.

[@blackmamba___]

Humans working with A.I will help them accomplish that. A.I companion A.I counselor A.I protector A.I physician A.I physiologist partnering with friends, family and other love ones will create the world you so much seek for them.

[@betrayedcitizen5135]

@@blackmamba___ ai has so much potential for good but It is still in the hands of humans. Much like a gun is just a tool, in the hands of a human it can be either beneficial or harmful. Capitalists fund technology. Never remove greed out of the equation. Abundance will be available but the price will be steep, as it always has been.

[@Seehart]

Yes, I think they can have those things. They won't ever have jobs, in the sense we do, and likely immortal (unless we are extinct).

[@betrayedcitizen5135]

What on earth?? What was wrong with my original comment that it gets deleted?

[@pyerack]

@@blackmamba___I know this is meant to be optimistic but something about that sounds dystopic.

[@Shrouded_reaper]

This is insanely optimistic beyond belief. Do you really think these new technologies will be socialised and owned by many rather than the current power players moving in to own them as they develop and simply handing out the plebians a liveable allowance contingent on their good behaviour?

[@Lerppunen]

Not all AI will be owned by the current power players.

[@suteki恋人]

If you actually listened to the video he states this is his best case scenario for humanities near future.

[@enriquesauve1373]

Its really not that optimistic. People have always underestimated how long it takes for technology to advance. As the supply of energy and information increases, so does its availability to the public.

[@cmccoy793]

Exactly, unless major steps are taken very soon / NOW, we're looking at Cyberpunk 2077 future or worse

[@jebes909090]

Yep, this guys knows. AI's gonna be used to control everyone. Its gonna be a dystopia. Eat your bugs, get in your pod.

[@Will-kt5jk]

Minor correction on the fusion record: Highest NIF Q value I could find was 1.54, still a fair way from 2x, but at least 3 projects have hit Q= >1 “For over two decades since 1997, the record for Q was held by JET at Q = 0.67. The record for Qext was held by JT-60, with Qext = 1.25, slightly besting JET's earlier Qext = 1.14. In December 2022, the National Ignition Facility reached Q = 1.54 with a 3.15 MJ output from a 2.05 MJ laser heating, which remains the record as of 2023.”

[@Screw_This]

Major misleading on the fusion record. The scientific Q does not account for laser efficiency, which is about 1%. We're not even close to net gain for the system.

[@carlpanzram7081]

​@@Screw_This fusion energy pls

[@bro918]

@@carlpanzram7081 20 years out

[@bobjoe1522]

I think these type of videos are always your best Dave. They make me excited for the future

[@ZenTheMC]

So true! I couldn’t stop smiling the entire video.

[@spiritualhammer392]

Are you even paying attention to reality??? None of this is anything close to happening.

[@dominicpetsch3869]

Life in 2044: the Stone Age

[@joshbraaksma7455]

Black sky Cockroaches Dust bowl Mad Max plus robots and radiation everywhere

[@Barabus-yx2cn]

They just don't get it do they?

[@alphahurricane7957]

20 year from now is 2040 not 2044. oh wait oh no

[@blocksterpen3704]

bro?

[@Falkov]

@@blocksterpen3704 🤔

[@user-uf2df6zf5w]

Why is everyone saying this? I can barely remember what happened in 2020 it was so long ago.

[@Enju-Aihara]

@@user-uf2df6zf5wi think there was a virus.. corinna? it did some damage to society anyway

[@icyknightmare4592]

@@user-uf2df6zf5w 2020 feels like it was last week.

[@spaceadv6060]

Great content! Helps me look at things differently and think more long term. Thanks!

[@TheREAL.BrandOnShow]

WHERES THE SUIT DAVID OUT OF UNIFORM! Great Video :D

[@DaveShap]

Captain's holiday

[@shaan702]

Yea it’s totally breaking my immersion 😆

[@PDXdjn]

@@DaveShap Could you pick me up a Horga’hn statue on your vacation?

[@codfather6583]

My newest favorite channel in this age of AI doomers. I'm such a sci-fi nerd and as a child i was a bit sad that i might not see the far-far future - I really have to struggle not sperging on people about AI. The future is going to be wild

[@Vilkox]

Same here. Have you seen “The Expanse”?

[@zetaforever4953]

It already is wild. We live in a fairytale world. Not even the fairy tales of our ancestors imagined the world we live in today. But we don't feel it because of the hedonic treadmill. Everything seems normal after a while. And what used to seem miraculous yesterday now seems like the bare minimum. A sense of wonder isn't something you get from longevity or immortality. It's something we all have to cultivate in our current situation. That said, this video is ridiculously hyperbolic. It's like the people in the 80s who predicted flying cars and Mars travel by the new millennium.

[@djangomarine6658]

I mean, all of this would be nice, but the reality is that most people will be dead broke and homeless by the time we make the transition. The rich will hoard, as usual. The governments will be too slow to react, as usual. Humans and society won't evolve fast enough. The transition will be extremely painful.

[@pyerack]

@@djangomarine6658 I think the most telling thing is how it already costs an arm and a leg to pay medical bills and people here think that if AGI finds the formula for immortality they're just going to hand it over to all of us on a silver platter.

[@CampingforCool41]

@@zetaforever4953if this is a fairy tale it must be a Brothers Grimm version…

[@ModernTruthRevelation]

Dude, I love you! We are very similar in our orientation tho you are killing it in terms of execution and being a beacon of light to me as well. Thanks. I hope the highest meaning stands by you always. Muuuuuuuuuuuuuuch love, keep it up

[@sirnicklas941]

I love the digital Superorganism idea! Please delve deeper into that in the future. You deliver amazing content David! :)

[@samuelabraham1033]

Amazing insight! Always look forward to your videos

[@nickbrigham8546]

I never comment on KZbin channels but yours is easily my favorite. I love the topics, your explanations/views/reasoning, and the frequency with which you post. I bought physical copies of all of your books. Love your systems thinking series. I’m 32, just getting into machine learning with zero prior experience (I own a cannabis company and would love to focus on improving enterprise software in this industry), and really appreciate the videos and books.

[@soundfly76]

Just stumbled across your channel. Mind blown..! thanks so much ❤

[@yannolaf]

An exceptional thought experiment and analysis on what the future holds for us in 2044. Your deep dive into the potentials of AGI, Fusion Energy, Biotech, and Quantum Computing not only showcases a well-researched understanding but also a wise foresight into their possible impacts and milestones. It’s clear that a lot of effort went into dissecting how these technologies could shape our world in the next two decades. Your ability to weave these complex subjects into a coherent and engaging narrative is commendable. Great work on providing a balanced view on the optimistic and realistic outcomes of these technologies. Looking forward to more insightful content like this!

[@WeylandLabs]

Your title missing Teleportation, Tractor Beams and Anti-matter Warp Drives ! 😂

[@DaveShap]

BEAM ME UP, BARCLAY

[@dannybitcoin116]

Love Is the root force that drives us to even want or care about life…..first principles Or should I say first principal “love”

[@BrianIsWatching]

As unlikely as it is, I really wish for teleportation. Pollution goes down, no more ugly parking lots, no need for as many roads as before, tax money get freed up for other things.

[@robertlipka9541]

​@@BrianIsWatchingI do not. I have McCoy attitude to transporters x trillion. Wormholes, etc, fine, being literally evaporated and reassembled, no thanks... dumbest idea in Trek, right after the prime directive.

[@BrianIsWatching]

@@robertlipka9541 Even if we only ever did non-living teleportation, it would be huge. I've always wondered about being disassembled though. I don't care so much about being zapped out of existence and replaced by a twin with my memories. I would be more concerned with small imperfections that build up with every reassembly, like a computer image being copied and pasted across the internet so many times it gets crusty, or a tape getting copied until it's too corrupted to view.

[@AustinThomasPhD]

This was four years ago so it might have changed, but I went to some presentations by MSE's working at ITER (out of interest, not even close to my field) and it seems really clear that, in contrast to what you said, net gain is not really the main challenge. Everyone is confident ITER will make net gain, the biggest barrier to commercial fusion is that the materials necessary for sustained controlled fusion reactions do not currently exist. The walls of the TOKOMAK literally vaporize due to the heat even with the magnetic containment.

[@jmufkinr]

I love this kind of content

[@livewellherenow]

I’m thoroughly enjoying this channel, so thank you. It’s good that you pitched your other channels, because my interest is piqued regarding what else is processed by your mind.

[@Kataroobungaloo]

Holy smokes this video was so fascinating. Especially the last bit about digital super organism

[@andreaslukas2252]

This was one of the best videos I whatched this year. Truly inspiring!

[@tylermiller1699]

People keep saying "the price of things will go down with the advent of ai, and robotics." Yet the exact opposite is the actual case. Who actually thinks that if a company figures out a way to save 1.00 on making a product, ANY of that extra savings is going to make it to to consumer? It NEVER does.

[@Shrouded_reaper]

Also as if the big power players aren't simply going to simply monopolise (or form international cartels, whatever) to cement their power using these new technologies. It's naïve in the extreme to think otherwise.

[@kharikhy-ree2242]

This is me watching the video. People said we'd have 4 day work weeks.... and we do for some. But that's because many jobs only allow part time. 😅

[@rainieb.104]

I was thinking just that, a lot of things in this video was almost too optimistic, if not borderline naive. Amazon may have implemented robotic automation in their warehouses and have less employees, but not in any way has it gotten cheaper, in fact its gotten more expensive, cant even do next day delivery now without having to meet a certain minimum order. And the same case will be in every other sector. These bastards do not think of anything else except their own greed.

[@zayed4675]

Wrong. Even the most famous monopoly in American history (Standard Oil under John Rockefeller) did exactly this. He dropped the price from 58 cents to 8 cents a gallon. It’s almost always true that price efficiencies are passed on the customer (as long as there is competition in the market). It’s crazy how people just have complete confidence in their ignorant opinions.

[@bilbobluntz1946]

@@zayed4675 it rly is embarrassing.

[@DontSpySpying]

In 2044, the population will be like 10% of what it is now

[@jimt7045]

Are you still sticking with September this year for AGI Dave? You seem to have let it slip to 2026.

[@gitonga]

HOW are you so productive. Another great video, excellent ideas. But I o think all of this will be in the short term 2-5 years. One a quantum's ASI arrives, no one really has an idea of what will happen subsequently

[@user-xr4hx4hx9m]

Well thought out. I hope you're bang on. :)

[@jukes31ryanable]

First time hearing a KZbinr calling themselves "Essential" 😂. I get what you mean tho. Great stuff. New subscriber.

[@earthlightsmusic2743]

At last, optimism. ^___^

[@wesleyterry877]

I think the value of fusion is commonly overstated. The cost of energy may go down some but likely not significantly. Most forms of energy creation follow these steps: Create Heat, convert heat to electricity, and distribute electricity. Fusion aims to make the Create heat step more efficient, but the other steps make up the majority of the cost anyway. I could see electricity costs falling from 7 cents to 5 cents at best. Huge change but not going to make everything free

[@Aggie4life77]

Next 20 years won’t change as much as you think. In 2004 is was different from a gadget standpoint and social media, but most people lived pretty similar to now. I could be completely wrong depending on what AI does. Also electric cars will be the majority of cars on the road. Self driving would have improved significantly.

[@yaboiflint5926]

Honestly I really hope that how’s it plays out because mannn this stuff puts a black pit in my stomach

[@chrisphillippi6014]

The change is exponential- so hard to conceptualize and I would argue that people lived completely differently 20 years ago. There were no smartphones, no social media, barely any KZbin, no streaming apps, no Uber, no air Bnb, most people didn’t even use gps to navigate in a car.

[@stephenlangsl67]

That little "tower house" with the solar panels on the roof looks like a makeshift shack but I still want to live there. Very well done. It would be pretty nice if I could afford to purchase a plot of land in an Ecovillage and build an exact replica of that house. I could just work in the Community garden.🙂

[@antiprime4665]

As a developer im ready to be automated so i can work on the projects i want to witht the help of a super ai

[@Jsmith1515]

I’m very excited by the potential for peace that comes with limitlessly abundant energy. What a blessing that would be

[@zeg2651]

What I find funny with regards to the definition of AGI and the capabilities of ChatGPT is that people say "Yeah, but ChatGPT doesn't always get it right first try." And I'm like "Did you ever do any task in your life?"😂 Completing a big complex task is usually an iterative process

[@GrandpasPlace]

Most people overestimate ChatGPT's abilities. From experience it has problems with even simple formulas such as asking it how to calculate the Mol of a 1l solution. It cant even get that right when you are giving it the answer. Asking it to write software is also a joke, I have yet to get anything out of it that did not require lots of debugging and most of it did not work at all. Dont get me wrong, ChatGPT is amazing for what it is but it is, at best, a general answer engine provided the answer is out there on the internet.

[@kalebmaxwell5725]

“AGI by 2026” I’m in tears of joy right now. Since I was little i have been outright convinced that the invention of agi will be the physical savior of humanity. Thank you for giving me hope.

[@wzsmart2890]

These green spaces that you’re talking about moving into are not “empty” they are full of life. Humans can’t keep treating the whole biosphere like a series of empty lots to be built on. We aren’t the only life forms on the planet. And longevity research will only compound our encroachment on wild spaces as population rises. These are challenges i would love for you to address in a future video as I think you have great insight. Great video per usual 🙏👌

[@gregoriopalofuego9808]

How do you make a hormone? "Don't pay her."

[@kharikhy-ree2242]

I can't imagine this new world you speak of. For the last thousands of years for humans, life has been strife. I can't fathom the rich and powerful allowing advancement that helps everyone.

[@russdr0725]

It makes sense that all the various billionaires, corporations, celebrities, etc. Are buying up real estate... That'll be the most valuable thing in the future.

[@arka7869]

I like the statement "AI is principles driven, not profit driven", thumbs up for the video!

[@SuperManning11]

At age 62, I’ve noticed that I have started to think about all this future tech and wondering how much of it I will actually live to see. It feels like we are absolutely on the cusp of a huge leap forward, but I’m already starting to feel some of the same things my parents felt about my technology that I was urging them to get on board with-that it requires a larger and larger learning curve with each new advancement of the tools we use in our daily lives. And like my parents, I sometimes ask myself if it’s even worth the energy needed to get up to speed with the newest tech. I never imagined that I would feel this, but again like my folks, I sometimes think, well, I’ve gotten along for more than 60 years without the shiny new gadgets that everyone is telling me I have to have, and I never even knew that doing this or that task without the tech was a problem that needed addressing, so... And sometimes doing something the old way becomes something special and even appreciated, so maybe I’ll just stick to handwriting letters to the people I care about (just as an example). I will be part of the last generation to have grown up without smartphones or computers, which is already something that kids today have a difficult time imagining how we made it through each day, and I sometimes wonder if they imagine that we had to fight off sabertooth lions as we rode our wooly mammoth to school each morning! The range of technological developments over my lifetime is simply astounding! I remember when my high school first set up the precursor to a computer lab, fully decked out with 30 electric typewriters, which was where I learned to type. I was in my 30’s before getting online, and 40-something before getting my first laptop. Will advances in longevity and medicine come rapidly enough to keep me around, in good health and of sound mind, for another 20-30 (40?) years to witness all the marvels talked about in this video? I kind of doubt it. And it might be a bitter pill to swallow when I can see younger and much wealthier people begin to take full advantage of medical advances, while my old body struggles along, trying to make do with a very small pension and no public healthcare in this country, knowing that I am one health crisis away from financial ruin, simply because my body will be too old to be productive and my mind and life experiences will most likely be very under-appreciated by a society that is completely foreign to me at age 82. Hmm…. I hope that with the advent of any of these big leaps forward, that society will undergo significant overhauls along the way, possibly addressing the needs of the elderly much better than in today’s world. It is indeed exciting either way and I feel so lucky to be around at this time in the history of humanity!

[@IllWish]

With respect, having watched all of your videos, it seems that your basic assumption is that a post labor economy will become a ASI Communist utopia. The downside of this that you never touch on is the high likelihood of an Oligarchy. Those with obscene amounts of money currently have an outsized influence on our society. They aren't just going to give up all their money and the privilege that it affords. So, with unlimited lifespan the most likely outcome is that they'll acquire more resources and influence, while the rest of society is on universal basic income. Also, with no jobs there will be no opportunity for upward mobility. The rich will continue to control all the levers of the economy and will be disincentivized to allow others to compete, and with ASI running everything there'll be little to no opportunity for disruption. You also make the assumption that everyone will have access to all these technologies, and they won't be priced out or restricted from having them due to legislation or some version of a caste system. For example, if you're already wealthy enough then lifespan extension is something that you would have access to, but for the plebs it's either restricted or not in your UBI budget. The result is that it's less likely that we'll get Star Trek, and more likely that we'll get Elysium.

[@DaveShap]

Economic Agency for the proletariat

[@therollerlollerman]

The maintenance of oligarchy is not so much thanks to oligarchs themselves but its non-oligarch supporters who aspire to have a shot at joining the oligarchy someday. If AI makes such idea of “temporarily embarrassed billionaires” obsolete and crystallizes a stagnant oligarchy, there will be no support for it

[@emilianohermosilla3996]

2nd amendment just entered the chat

[@davedsilva]

Appreciate the optimism. Fight for a good future.

[@billcollins6894]

I left AI research at Stanford last year. Of course predictions are not worth much but here is the background for mine: 1) There are many large projects in play to completely decode RNA/DNA and how to design any conceivable living and non-living thing with it. 2) Stanford believes they will achieve AGI in their labs this decade. 3) University biology labs across the world have the ability to synthesize any RNA/DNA sequence today. Students have access to this. 4) Once AI completely understands RNA/DNA and our immune systems, it is inevitable that someone will design a super virus looks innocuous until it is too late. 5) Absolutely nothing can be done to stop this from happening. The only defense will be that other AI will be trying to stay ahead of the viruses that emerge. 6) We will exist in a constant race to defend ourselves from insane people who want to cause harm. We will likely have to physically isolate clusters of society to protect the human race.

[@Falkov]

A single person's potential destructive-viability looks to be multifariously exploding into the future.

[@Shrouded_reaper]

@@Falkov It's not just single people. You think nation states worldwide will just kneel and stop development of ever more horrifying weapons? LOL pull the other one mate.

[@rainieb.104]

Heavy on number 6) cause the way that we will also be threatened in terms of cybersecurity, which is already happening. Cyberattacks are on a crazy rise, with AI making it so so much worse. As well as criminals mimicking voices, faces, companies, identities, what have you. Many people forget the amount of insane people that exist in this world that can do serious harm.

[@GrandpasPlace]

Lol, You can but the equipment to do #3 on ebay right now. I have not run the numbers but I would bet the lab would cost less than 10k buying the items from ebay. 4,5,and6 sound right.

[@212roblox212]

AGI & Crispr is a wild combination with crazy potential

[@StefanPaunVideo]

y'all too optimistic on ai boys, calm youre tits down

[@omifam7714]

Hi David; love the insights. You seem so well read and clear minded. Could you please share your top 5 books?

[@SycamoreLaneMusic]

Very interesting presentation David. It’s a great time to be alive.

[@rubarb3618]

Your optimistic view seriously gives me hope

[@Gafferman]

David, there's a topic I have not noticed others talk about that I think you'd greatly enjoy. I'm not even sure if others have publicly said anything along these lines... What if an embodied AGI, is inherently "conscious" and/or has its own wants and feelings? At that point, wouldn't it become rather much just like us and therefore find work, such as 24 hours in a warehouse undesirable? Would this lead to AGI *not* being what does the work and an AUI being developed? (Artificial Unconscious Intelligence). It could very well turn out that way.

[@rox1180]

“Everyone’s job will be gone, except mine!” Lol ok dude

[@gunnarehn7066]

David, You’ve got it! 45 years of thinking, reading and reflecting -since I first saw the Apple II, TRS80 & Commodore Pet at CES Chicago 1978-on where Digital Integration will take us-and what it really means- I have arrived exactly at some of the same conclusions , whose Totality you so beautifully summarize in your amazingly informed/informative unique presentation. Thank You!

[@PizzaMineKing]

I'm kinda worried about the long life thing - I don't think it's too far fetched to consider artificial immortality. However, death looming on the horizon is what gives life meaning. Would we need to introduce a right to die at that point? Would a swift and painless death be something one can pay for at some point? Cause, tbh, I'd go for another 20-30 years, I know a friend who wants 200, but both of us want to die eventually...

[@drilldsindo]

I find videos like this to rub me the wrong way, usually. This tech-bro optimism leads usually to ignoring glaring problems in fantastical new ideas. However, I found this video to be insightful, grounded, and also genuinely thought provoking. I wonder what a possible newfound energy abundance could mean for our species and the planet? Its a new perspective for me to think of our civilization as a super-organism. Im especially excited to see how this changes people and human relations. Human relations have already changed so much since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Anyways, gonna check out more of your videos.

[@Scrattah]

Your optimism in this current era is exactly what I need to hear. Here’s to shrinking everyone’s heads to a similar size for the progression of mankind.

[@yamenmohammad3617]

Talk about the effect of AI into sports like football and martial arts, it’s an interesting topic nobody really talks about. We might be able to modify the bodyparts of athletes and enhance them to give more power and output and make sports more fun

[@AboodCohen]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts David, very exciting future ahead 😊

[@theGreatQAwakening]

We should not sit and wait to see what happens in the future. WE are here to CREATE our future! WE have to CLAIM it! World peace and collective progress is in OUR hands ‼️ one for all and all for peace.

[@bastienfrancois9180]

profund, well thought, well researched. Superb.

[@TheCowthryn]

Another fire video David! Rock on, sir! What a time to be alive

[@chongsdong]

Your intelligence and optimism is an absolute breath of fresh air. Thank you and please keep making such thoughtful and thought provoking content.

[@ansonstiles]

Appreciate the positivity. Have been on a big Nate Hagens kick and thinking a lot about the end of the world 😅

[@chrisms6446]

You seem very optimistic on the effects of these developments on society. I believe it will be more mixed results. Many of which will contribute to a growing cyberpunk dystopia. And what about WWIII?

[@swirlcrop]

This is a very good talk and I actually think that it is the first look I've seen beyond the event horizon of AI and environmental responsibility. This might be a breath of fresh air to the sci-fi literary genre too Thanks for posting your work.

[@mAny_oThERSs]

Everytjing you said but in 15 years. You can change a lot in a year already. People underestimate others that actually want to make a change in the world.

[@DaveShap]

I tend to agree. That's why I was like "All this is over and done with by 20 years"

[@crazyeightsable]

very interesting as always.i love you're content. i learn so much.

[@nickidaisydandelion4044]

Awesome. I fully agree with your future perspective and on AGI and ASI being free from selfishness. I very much look forward to them.

[@ollietipper]

When I see videos like this one, I can’t help but get so incredibly excited about the possibilities of what’s to come. It gives me so much hope and joy that maybe everything really will work out in this Utopic way. I recently turned 21 and space exploration has always been something I’ve really wanted to be a part of. Sometimes I feel I was born a little too early and perhaps I won’t get the opportunity to traverse the stars. Videos like this give me hope that maybe just maybe I’ll be able to go out and see what this universe has to offer one day. Thankyou for giving me hope.

[@lylejoth4427]

David, I'm 69 years old. As a consequence of watching one of your videos last night, I bolted upright in bed in a cold sweat from a fevered dream in which it was the year 2045. You and Ray Kurzweil were standing over a bubbling vat filled with nutritious algae paste, staring down at my floating brain. I was wondering how the hell had I fallen into this...

[@Falkov]

Now that you know, watch your step around algae vats in 21 years - especially when Dave & Ray are also there. You've got this! =P

[@lucymemow]

Yall are incredibly optimistic. I’m not as much, though it’s nice to see for a change.

[@st3rn187]

Dont worry , there is nothing left from Humanity in 20 Years.

[@kripto8231]

when almost no one will work i don't think there will be much people that will be willing to work special jobs. at first maybe but when all your friends are doing what they want all the time ... i don't think so.. unless the job would be just for few hours per week and doesn't require 20 years of studying

[@GodlikeAIArt]

In our channel we ask : Are signs of metacognition starting to appear in the art of DALL E 3?

[@YUUURRTTW]

20 years later “this video aged well”

[@MusicalMarble]

Totally agree on the meaning economy. When we don’t need to expend 90% of our calories to produce food, widgets, and watts, we will want to be happy, have great relationships, and learn things

[@raggedflaggon9566]

Perhaps we will live to see the floating gardens of Babylon.

[@samsters25]

Great video using an educated approach relative to current science and predictions. No hype, no scare tactics. Just a nicely painted picture of what our future could potentially look like very soon. Thanks!

[@xcidgafhamas]

I know a couple of teachers that would love some one on one time with students

[@TerminallyUnique95]

How soon they can cure my Type 1 diabetes is a huge deal to me. Been suffering so many years without working pancreas. It really sucks.

[@hovieshome89]

I am a 31-year-old with a BS job and reinventing myself. I am changing careers, going back to get my degree, and starting fresh. The tricky thing is finding a career path in a future where technology is bound to limit the labor force. Content like this helps a lot. Thank you!

[@richardstokstad9271]

Thank you David, for engaging with us to traverse into the near future...

[@Godspeedysick]

Boy o boy, your optimism is through the roof. 😆🙈

[@eliriekeberg7127]

I love the term “virtuous cycle” in place of vicious cycle of progress. It’s both an accurate term and a coping mechanism ❤

[@theycallmethesoandso]

there are major constraints to this development: narcissism in power structures, the fears of the uneducated, copyright and property, natural resources, human to human alignment, failing to understand llm anthropomorphism and the need for embodiment and personhood... etc etc

[@tomwinston6758]

Great video, important information. Thanks

[@DewyMoss]

you speak funny words magic man.

[@westcoastdean]

Excellent information and presentation. Great stuff!

[@gbbenner9382]

Enjoy vids David, you're our guide.

[@belindacarter6872]

Love the optimism - so yes, it has VALUE!! We need to large scale orient toward the silver linings in all of this - Thx!

[@Epiphone1964]

The growing popularity of community trusts is already suggesting a viable direction for decentralized ownership.

[@LoisSharbel]

Excellent, AGAIN! Thanks!

[@kevinmcdonald8497]

Awesome video 👏 Do you have a PDF version of your slides by any chance?

[@thepoliticalstartrek]

One key technology that people forget is the ability to directly turn heat into electricity. Currently we are at 10% efficiency. Modern sci-fi is Battletech is 60% and Star Trek is over 90%. It is literally the key to ministerisation and Fusion reactors small enough to run a car.