It's [Finally] Time to Buy Rocket Lab

[@Nanalyze]

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[@radier9532]

Good summary as usual. This almost "value focused" approach to risky, disruptive tech companies is the only sensible way to do it imo. The ticker symbol cheerleading has quieted down, which likely means better entry opportunities to invest in the company while others sell the stock.

[@Nanalyze]

No sir, it is you who should be praised for a very accurate and concise summary of the situation in your comment.

[@danygauthier605]

Hi fair analysis. Not bullish not bearish.

[@Nanalyze]

That's what an analysis should be. Fair. Thank you for the comment!

[@runningman5871]

I don't see anyone on X saying Rklb is going to the moon. The community is pretty savy and for most, this is a 2030 play.

[@Nanalyze]

This stock has been one of the most pumped space SPACs out there with more cheerleaders than you shake a stick at. We watch this "space" closely so we we're not just making that up. The savvy community needs to learn more about the importance of diversification from what we've seen.

[@Nanalyze]

And to your point, there has been a noticeable decline in the number of sacred cow followers for RKLB, which is why it's finally at a reasonable valuation.

[@runningman5871]

WRT spaceX, Rklb and SpaceX operate in different markets. Rklb is for precise orbital insertion. A transporter SpaceX mission is not the same. Most of the revenue comes from space services. And they own their own pads, they can launch a lot easier than other companies. Their moat is massive.

[@runningman5871]

But a pretty far assessment. Interest in Starlink IPO is massive. The numbers look interesting to say the least.

[@Nanalyze]

Ask yourself just how easy it is for SpaceX to suddenly operate in whatever "massive moat" markets RKLB is operating in. If SpaceX was publicly traded, there wouldn't be much of a debate about which company to invest in. And yes, Starlink is very interesting because their opportunity is just so massive.

[@Batarang67]

Thanks for the information. I recently opened up a position in Rklb. Rklb has 22 launches scheduled for 2024 so we shall see what happens. Their next launch is Dec 13. Let’s see if it goes off without a hitch.

[@Nanalyze]

It sure should!

[@jryan1024]

Chart patterns = Stock Astrology

[@Nanalyze]

Astrology for men ;)

[@bishopscore]

I got burned after I failed to heed your warning over a year ago. I am now checking your take prior to making future decisions on these stocks. I love your content. Keep up the good work. ❤❤❤

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you very much for the kind words! Helping people become better investors is what motivates everything we do.

[@sahasra9]

Peter Beck seems to be always thinking of long term. Any thoughts on betting on RKLB at this time? They might be undervalued relative to SpaceX. Any thoughts?

[@Nanalyze]

We don't have any way to value SpaceX as they are a private company

[@sahasra9]

@@Nanalyze I believe it's valued at 150B in private rounds. So I was going with that

[@Nanalyze]

You have SpaceX revenues? Valuation ratios need two inputs.

[@sahasra9]

@@Nanalyze Good point. Pretty sure when it IPOs it will go beyond what the private funding is estimating it. I guess time will tell. But for now I have a small position in RKLB and hoping to add more.

[@Jop_Kop]

The sound is way louder now, I did not need the earplugs. Thanks! The content is always top notch.

[@Nanalyze]

That's great to hear. Presuming sound quality was fine still. So that's at 95% intake. Perhaps we can just use 100% and it will be fine. Previously, it was "cracking" a bit so the reason for reducing intake volume. If we can grow this channel more than perhaps we can justify spending money on better hardware and perhaps bettering the audio a bit more. Joe P.

[@Jop_Kop]

@@Nanalyze Yeah the quality is not the greatest, but that is not the biggest problem for an informative channel. I was surprised how much the volume went up after the small adjustment 85->95. Maybe 90 is perfect, idk. Thanks again!

[@Nanalyze]

@@Jop_Kop Thank you for the feedback, that's super helpful. We'll leave the setting as is for now since it seems to have solved the problem.

[@negantv655]

Great work again. Tyvm!

[@Nanalyze]

Thank you!

[@boonyawaiangsuwotai6695]

Thanks for the information Joe. I am not sure if I interpret the numbers correctly, it seems that there are less than 2 years left for cash runway. So the chance of capital call is quite high, right? - glad if you could confirm. I think they still grow and have positive gross margin are good news. No domain knowledge on this industry, so buying only little portion would be enough for me

[@Nanalyze]

Trailing twelve month operating cash burn is $75.596 million (from Yahoo Finance), and their stockpile is $374 million (from their deck), so roughly five years? That's what we came up with. To your point, space and cannabis are the riskiest themes we cover so it makes perfect sense to place small bets on these themes.

[@boonyawaiangsuwotai6695]

@@Nanalyze I am not sure why we do not consider capex when calculating the cash runways, would be glad if you clarify. Combine both CFO and CFI, I think cash burn can be 150 min++ Since I have not known detail of the stock, I cannot distinguish between one time and regular capex. Thanks Joe for awswering

[@Nanalyze]

Good point. Yes, you can certainly do that. The reason we typically only use CFO is because that is a measure of survivability. They don't have to invest in Neutron. That's a choice. So, using CFO always gives us an indicator of their ability to survive quarter-to-quarter regardless of what investments they're making in Neutron at any given time. We also generally try to keep things extremely simple for everyone (unless they want to dig further as you are doing). Find one metric from one place, divide it by another metric from another place.

[@boonyawaiangsuwotai6695]

@@Nanalyze Thank you Joe. It depends on personal judgement/interpretation then. I do not know why I am afraid of capital call so much - maybe I fear of new investors buying shares cheaper that I brought and the risk of inability to raise capital is the most fearful to me. Not sure if I am conservative too much. Tiny investment portion and bet after I have gained some profit could help me having some skin in the game.

[@Nanalyze]

@@boonyawaiangsuwotai6695 You're raising a very good point here. Neutron has all these grand aspirations such as reusability in the same way SpaceX accomplishes that today. Do they actually have enough cash on hand to make that happen? Is $374 million enough while the business is also burning cash? Great point raised. Maybe some of the savvy community out there can chime in here as we're not very familiar with how much CAPEX Neutron plans to consume.

[@AceOnBase1]

Bought some 2 year calls on this one, they’re pretty cheap (dollar wise lol) and I believe the potential for this one to rocket (harhar) due to hype is high. Hopefully I will be exercising for some cheap shares!

[@Nanalyze]

You're a regular around here. You probably know what we're going to say about dabbling in options ;) That said, hopefully you will do well. We're rooting for you!

[@wasp586]

It took off ... and came back, once again ...

[@Nanalyze]

One problem is that it was being hyped huge. That's since died down, but "fans" of the stock need to realize they do the company no favors by cheerleading. RKLB is growing revenues and gross margins which is great, but Neutron is the big unknown.

[@wasp586]

@@Nanalyze I have it since early 2022. I learned to go with the waves. Selling some high and buying back more when it's low again. It's actually quite predictable ...

[@wasp586]

@@Nanalyze Neutron will be tricky indeed. Last interview (March 5th on Yahoo Finance) with Beck I saw was far from convincing. Expect some serious delays imo. And then there's the competition catching up rapidly with Relativity, Firefly, ..., and Stoke Space a bit further.

[@Nanalyze]

@@wasp586 Yes, we're thinking the same thing on delays but Beck is a legend. He'll eat his hat when things don't happen as promised! Fun company to watch.

[@wasp586]

Now would be the time to post an update ... hold or sell at $11.69 ... ?

[@Nanalyze]

Here you go: kzbin.info/www/bejne/fXWbYZ-KqKxsa5I

[@wasp586]

@@Nanalyze yeah, I watched that ... I'm not a bag holder anymore, average in the low 4's but wondering if this is again one of these peaks where I could sell high and buy back more when it settles down again in the 7's or 8's ... Don't want to take the risk to sell what I though was 'high' ;-)

[@Nanalyze]

@@wasp586 Remember, the fundamentals have to catch up with the hype or its just hype. Plot a valuation ratio over time and observe how it moves. We use a modified price-to-sales ratio (for companies in early cycle of maturity). It works pretty well to see how hyped something is based on historical valuations and current fundamentals.

[@sahasra9]

You said the south african gorilla as desirable leader. Whats your thoughts on Peter Beck? I would say he is more desirable given that he seems to be a no bullshitter. Would love your thoughts

[@Nanalyze]

Haven't spent much time with Peter Beck or worked with him so don't have much of an opinion to offer up.

[@sahasra9]

@@Nanalyze thanks. I guess you spent time with the other guy or worked with him ;). Just kidding. You may want to check out Peter Beck. I know it's easy to just go with big winners like the one you like even though how crazy they are.

[@sahasra9]

For me it's not always about the money. But I understand the goal of investing is to make money. I like to invest in leaders who I like. I understand it's not ideal way to invest. Good thing is you are always consistent about going with winners and leave your personal bias (I think) or stories aside.

[@Nanalyze]

We have checked out Peter Beck. You know what he's judged on? What he's accomplished. Looks like he's doing a good job. That's expected. Musk is probably the most accomplished entrepreneur in the world. He's doing a good job too.

[@Nanalyze]

The goal of investing is to make money. Yes. Well said.

[@eclkt]

Thank you

[@Nanalyze]

You're most welcome

[@Sicksociety334]

I’m just not sold on space exploration being profitable, this is why for decades the us government paid for space exploration with tax dollars. Now we are giving the private sector our tax dollars for space exploration. I am often wrong but I just don’t see profits, not to say the exploration isn’t a good thing for humanity. Just not a good profit maker.

[@Nanalyze]

It's a risky theme no matter how you look at it! We consider Space a disruptive innovation theme so we're apt to cover it, but it's a very new theme in the investable universe nonetheless. As the industry matures, profits should follow. Research suggests the space industry could reach a trillion-dollar valuation in the coming decades. We'll see if that comes to fruition. Thanks for the comment! -Wyatt C.

[@bingebinge3722]

Did you mean exploration or explosion?

[@Sicksociety334]

It’s interesting even on this channel that any cautious comment is met with a brick through the window ( not the nanalyse guys, you’re the best ) I’m happy for anyone to invest in anything and wish you luck. I just don’t see it yet.

[@Nanalyze]

@Sicksociety334 It's very interesting indeed. As you know, our goal is to make people better investors. What you're observing is behavior from people who aren't really interested in growing wealth, or having a conversation that might lead towards that. Instead, they'll leave no stone unturned trying to find some small incorrect - usually irrelevant - detail they can point out (ONE OF THOSE CHOPPERS ISN'T SOLD YET, OKAY!?!??!!?), one criticism they can level, anything they can do to show their blind allegiance to a stock for reasons we honestly cannot figure out. These people will never actually accumulate wealth because this behavior in the real world adds no value to anyone. They'll never get the picture. This is why cheerleaders do nobody any favors including themselves.