Nassim Taleb And Scott Patterson On Black Swans And Chaos Kings

Nassim Taleb (@nntaleb), the author of “The Black Swan” and “Antifragile," joins episode 83 of The Julia La Roche show alongside veteran Wall Street Journal reporter Scott Patterson (@pattersonscott), author of “Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions In the New Age of Crisis.”
“Chaos Kings,” which features Nassim Taleb, recounts the story of Universa Investments, a Miami-based investment firm specializing in risk mitigation, deploying a tail-risk hedging strategy to limit losses from an outsized market event, like a Black Swan. Taleb is the Distinguished Scientific Advisor at Universa.
Led by Mark Spitznagel, Universa is among the best-performing investment managers of the last 15 years, reaping massive gains from market crashes. During the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, Universa delivered a stunning 4,000% return during the first quarter when markets sharply sold off. The firm has posted a 15-year average annual return on capital north of 100%.
Link:
Chaos Kings: www.amazon.com/Chaos-Kings-St...
0:00 Show open
1:00 Chaos Kings story
6:40 A problem with infrequent but large losses
9:45 Precautionary Principle
12:29 Tail risk hedging
15:30 Flaws of modern finance
17:17 Mark Spitznagel learning to “love to lose”
19:00 Fragilities, hidden risks, big picture macro environment
23:43 Addressing misconceptions around Black Swans
25:30 Optionality
30:16 Experience and execution of the strategy
31:49 Black Swans v. Dragon Kings
34:30 Predicting an event is one thing; benefitting is another thing
36:00 Sornette’s Dragon Kings
38:50 Universa’s 4,000% gain
41:45 Getting to know Nassim Taleb
46:01 Rethinking investing
49:01 New age of crisis
54:40 Parting thoughts
#nassimtaleb #blackswan #stockmarket

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Hey everyone! I hope you enjoy this special episode with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of 'The Black Swan' and the Distinguished Scientific Advisor to Universa Investments, alongside veteran Wall Street Journal reporter Scott Patterson, author of the new book, 'Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions In The New Age of Crisis." Please let me know your thoughts in the comments below, and keep your guest suggestions coming. And if you still need to do so, please be sure to like and subscribe to the channel to help me reach my goal of 10K. Thanks, as always. 💙Julia

[@xonious9031]

Mr Taleb claimed that covid was not a black swan event for several years has he reversed that decision?

[@Learna_Hydralis]

I like honest people, especially people with radical honesty, this is exactly why I love Nassim.

[@HectorGarcia]

I must confess I have not read the book :) Best moment of the interview.

[@stickySituations415]

What a beautiful interview!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you! 😊

[@behrad9712]

amazing talk...!👌Thank you very much🙏

[@beaucannington6448]

Taleb really condensed his work concisely in this interview. Great interview/work.

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you! He's so great. I'm going to invite him back for a solo conversation at some point even though he doesn't really do podcasts! I love listening to him.

[@nunoalexandre6408]

Love it!!!!!!!!!!!

[@thehungergames8918]

Thank you for the information ❤

[@andrewcollier2222]

Great chat, Thank you! So basically, you make sure you’re good whatever may come, maybe you let Wall Street/MPT types manage a large chunk of your wealth, say 70%, then hire these type of tail thinkers for another 20%. Last 10% in gold related. Adapt proportions to you’re tolerances. I work at WFC, full disclosure, but also I’m a gold bug. Shhh…I like hedging my bets :)

[@gregorypapas9354]

great video!

[@963seeker]

Thanks for this Julia, this was a great treat. can you get Mark Spitznagel on next ?

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

I'd LOVE to have Mark on the show! I interviewed him right before I left Yahoo Finance in 2021. The video is on KZbin.

[@Senecamarcus]

@@TheJuliaLaRocheShowit would be so cool to have him on your show

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

@@Senecamarcus Agreed! I interviewed Mark once in the past, and he's wonderful. He rarely gives interviews, but I will try to get him on the pod. 🙏 Here's my interview with him from my prior job: kzbin.info/www/bejne/kIrYfGOBndmjibs

[@canxida]

@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow it's absolutely amazing that you respond to comments. You are one of the best journalists out there!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

@@canxida Thank you! And I LOVE reading the comments. 💙

[@pauloalex975]

Great interview Julia👏

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much! 😊

[@TedErhartCFP]

I really enjoyed this discussion Julia!

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

Thank you so much, Ted.😊

[@albertmarzo]

you know it is a great conversation when Mr. Taleb has his usual terrible image and even more terrible sound 🤣🤣

[@danc7988]

The first and second thirds of this books were amazing. But the “science is settled” tone of the last third of the book was a major turn off. 5/5 for the first two thirds of the book and 1/5 for the last third of the book.

[@stickySituations415]

Whoop whoop 🎉

[@stickySituations415]

Rock on

[@stickySituations415]

Get em

[@gavinsmith9564]

Fantastic interview thank you ! If you are doing requests +1 for Edward O. Thorp

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

He's definitely on my list. I am reading his book!

[@gavinsmith9564]

@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow I love his concept of finding an edge in life by avoiding certain things ( very Munger ), would be great to know how he actually goes about that process of evaluation. Fingers crossed you can get him on the show.

[@stickySituations415]

🏄‍♂️🏄‍♂️🏄‍♂️

[@GearsDemon]

35:39 "I've done two with you" Where is this other podcast?

[@TheJuliaLaRocheShow]

We did a brief interview several years ago. I think he said he'd do a third though :)

[@stickySituations415]

Julia you are very 🔥

[@xonious9031]

Mr Taleb persistently insisted that covid was not a black swan event for several years... Now he appears to be saying or agreeing that hope it was a black swan event... Can we get some clarification on this?

[@shakthidhasan4544]

Your volume sucks guys. Its almost like you want the exposure but do not want anyone to hear your content

[@fredilly]

you make all that money and can't even buy a decent computer with a webcam and mic....smh