Bitcoin & Macro Hangout 2: Preston Pysh, James Lavish, Dr. Susie Reilly & Surprise Guest Luke Gromen

In this new episode with Preston Pysh, James Lavish and Dr. Susie Reilly, we discuss:
- Why Bitcoin's price hasn't reached $100k
- What is the Bitcoin basis trade and is it suppressing the price?
- Trump endorsing Bitcoin ahead of the election
- Global M2 money supply on the rise
- U.S. Senators urging the Fed to cut rates
- Bitcoin Power Law
- Bitcoin miners capitulating post-halving
- Dieting using ChatGPT
- Personal updates from everyone
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Guests & Links:
Preston Pysh is an entrepreneuer, investor, podcast host and General Partner at Ego Death Capital. Check out his show: www.theinvestorspodcast.com and follow him on X: / prestonpysh
James Lavish is an investor, macro expert, hedge-fund veteran, and Managing Partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund. Subscribe to his newsletter: www.jameslavish.com/newsletter and follow him on X: / jameslavish
Dr. Susie Reilly, DDS is a retired dentist and Bitcoin enthusiast. She and her husband divested of their businesses and home to buy more Bitcoin. Check out our talk on Coin Stories: • Dr. Susie Reilly: "Let... and follow her on X: / susiebdds
Special thank you to macro analyst Luke Gromen, whose analysis we discuss: fftt-llc.com
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⚡ Coin Stories is powered by Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR), a publicly-traded leader in Bitcoin mining that stands alone as the only vertically-integrated, technology-focused Bitcoin mining company. Learn more at bit.ly/bitdeercoinstories.
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Natalie’s Promotional Links:
- Bitcoin Nashville is July 25-27th! Join me for my 3rd Annual Women of Bitcoin Brunch! Get 10% off your conference passes using the code HODL: b.tc/conference.
- Buy Bitcoin, secure it through multisig collaborative custody, start a Bitcoin IRA or take out a Bitcoin loan with UNCHAINED: shorturl.at/jmW29 promo code Natalie
- Never wait or pay high fees for making Bitcoin payments. Use Speed Lightning Wallet to instantly send and receive Bitcoin: speedbtcwallet.onelink.me/cGp...
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- Connect with Bitcoiners and Bitcoin merchants wherever you live and travel on the Orange Pill App: shorturl.at/gvxS3
🗒️ IN THIS EPISODE:
00:00 President Trump endorsing Bitcoin
4:23 How many Americans own cryptocurrency?
5:24 Elizabeth Warren and Bitcoin
6:59 Bitdeer Technologies Group
7:57 Jay Powell's future
9:56 Europe lowers rates
10:35 Trying to stop a recession
15:48 Janet Yellen
19:29 Bitcoin price
22:52 Special guest Luke Gromen
28:54 What's happening with Bitcoin?
30:59 Bitcoin 2024
31:27 Speed Bitcoin Lightning Wallet
31:48 Coinkite Coldcard Wallet
32:10 The Bitcoin Way
32:43 Spot Bitcoin ETFs
37:41Global liquidity
44:37 Cutting rates
45:32 Nvidia stock
47:57 ChatGPT
52:28 Hawaii doesn't like volunteers
54:37 Government jobs
58:47 Bitcoin Power Law Theory
1:07:00 Election cycle economics
1:18:44 Fountain App
💡 OTHER RESOURCES
Natalie’s website: talkingbitcoin.com/
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Producer: Aron Bender / aron-bender
DISCLAIMER Coin Stories is for entertainment purposes only and does not give financial advice. #bitcoin #crypto #money

[@michaelschliwa1096]

So I'm 22 mins in.. And they show who the special guest is, I get so pumped I pause the video so that I can give it my full attention later... I'm so pumped I want to tell someone and I realize literally no one in my life would recognize even one of the names of the people in this podcast...

[@christinewillis7545]

lol. I'm in that club. The upside is the Bitcoin club has awesome values, feral developers and freely share their knowledge - up or down and always truth.

[@dashiva7069]

So funny…same here. Love all of these guys, but then I hear Gromen drop in and my excitement caused my kids (Late teens) to come over and mock my enthusiasm…At least I’ve forced them to save some money in bitcoin.

[@TheChewbaca69]

In the same boat lol.

[@Notjoefresh]

Yuup lol and if I do tell someone anything about this space it’s all sarcastic remarks with huge doubt lol

[@discoveringflorida67]

Same!!

[@scepisle4970]

We are still so early Natalie..... most of my friends have no idea what Bitcoin is... but they will... 😊

[@waynerichardson1051]

Natalie, you're doing such a great job, thanks for everything you're doing for us, it's really appreciated. Keep up with the awesome work. Stay genuine and authentic. Thanks

[@youthimmortalus]

I love your friend group. You're all awesome.

[@user-99.99]

Wow, I’m quite shocked on the responses concerning the Bitcoin Power Laws on this episode. At least James is here to help. Please look at the recent interviews that Giovanni and Fred Kruger have done on this topic. Very interesting. There are limitations to what it might be indicating but it is definitely something to be taken seriously.

[@epilpstd1]

Agreed. I find Giovanni's personality abrasive but the power law still deserves a serious look by anyone that studies bitcoin.

[@RyanVoelkel]

The price isn’t being manipulated. It’s doing what it always does. $100k will be here in the back half of the year

[@rodrigues836]

I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my entire life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Julie Braun.

[@MiguelMcKinney-uw3hm]

Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

[@DaisyNicolle]

She is my family's personal Broker and also a personal Broker to many families in the United states, she is a licensed broker and a FINRA AGENT in the United States.

[@gordonthomas218]

You trade with Julie Braun too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.

[@vivie804]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@MasonHarris-bg9ob]

I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much

[@phelps078q]

The crypto market has been unfavorable for months and I keep losing my money selling-off during dips, I'm very scared of holding right now, how do you guys still make so much….?

[@ominekq54]

VENTURING into the trading world without the help of a profesionals, trading and expecting profit is like turning water into wine you would need a miracle...

[@aliq218]

It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast. I will also suggest investors to get yourselves a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.

[@ominekq54]

Following you has been an amazing journey , you have shown me the best way to earn much better profits despite the bad economic situations, God bless you with more knowledge Alice devion...

[@lissethq123]

Great to see you guys talking of Alice, Trading on your own can be very dangerous i can testify to that. This woman changed the game for me

[@phelps078q]

Any info on how i can liaise with her, i'm new at this

[@christopherashley7553]

I’d buy the dip but I’m out of dry powder, I’m all in and sold the hamster. I want a bank manager like Sailor’s

[@kajburns9367]

Wow! Luke Gromen really in the trees!

[@Josephbasta827]

I am so happy that I made productive decisions about my finances that changed my life forever. I am a single mother and I live in Spain, I bought my second house in September and I hope to retire next year at 40 if all goes well. thanks to Natalie Strayer for helping me achieve this.

[@Charlottehornets4]

I'm surprised that you just mentioned Natalie Strayer here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.

[@Jessecote875]

Natalie Strayer has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's

[@Scottweeier846]

The very first time we tried, we invested $2000 and after a week, we received $9500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.

[@carolynvo7802]

I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

[@Rodriguezpaul-9]

Her good reputation already speaks for her .I’m also one of the beneficiary of Natalie Strayer. So happy I gave it a trial after being skeptic of the process.

[@mahines2290]

The info was great but the bigger thing is the friendship on display. Makes me long for that full transparency and love of one another in a space that serves one another and works together to build one another up. The long path for me is just getting my current friends not thing about dollar gains. POW

[@user-ig9yt6mq2q]

Cyberopolis commitment to decentralization and innovation makes it a beacon in the crypto storm. This is the future.

[@tylermassas6103]

Power Law of Bitcoin is an extraordinary finding. It clearly shows how Bitcoin is behaving like nature (orders of magnitude) log-log scale. Physics 101. Nature loves Power Laws. No other asset in the history of civilization has behaved like a Power Law.

[@markcollett-remaxarmstrong491]

Hi guys. Love the show. Glad you mentioned RFK Jr….. Keep talking about him

[@mabusii5522]

Thank you Natalie.

[@ramontiscar9194]

Luke finding trees and even the forest :-)

[@tonequin4562]

Hell yeah! It’s the HANG🎉

[@langa1533]

We hereeee!!!!!!!

[@davecorley5514]

Thanks, Natalie. Great content! Power Law - “so what”? A personal answer. TL;DR: Bitcoin is as boring as the second law of thermodynamics. And that strengthens my conviction in it and my hope for my kids’ and grandkids’ future. Any phenomena that obeys a power law is anti-fragile. Power law phenomena are resilient and persistent over time. Power law phenomena respond to perturbations by dependably reverting to their mean. They are particularly insensitive to perturbations from chaotic sources - sources of which cannot be predicted in time of occurrence or magnitude per occurrence. Power law phenomena are “scale invariant”. Their correlation to the mean, no matter what graph type (linear-linear, semi-log, log-log) is chosen. In the case of one of Bitcoin’s power laws, price vs time, the correlation is about 97%. In the case of our solar system’s planetary orbital periods vs length of their orbital path’s semi-major axis, the correlation is greater than 99% over 5 billion years. That is over twelve orders of magnitude in time (days since solar system accretion). Power law phenomena have several similar attributes. Among them are the lack of central control and the presence of negative feedback processes that yield resilience and resistance to outside chaotic perturbations. Power law phenomena are abundant in nature. One natural power law is the planetary orbital period vs axis distance mentioned above. Another is the mass of an animal species vs its average daily metabolic energy consumption. All species of animal life, no matter the species, has a “plot point” on that curve. And the curve has a stable correlation of greater than 95% to its mean … over about half a billion years on earth. Even small cellular protozoan species mass vs metabolism rate fall on this power curve. Evolution of life itself has many power law behaviors. The resilience of species over many generations is an artifact of the behaviors. Cities have many power law phenomena. Number of gas stations vs population is one that obeys a power law. Cities have limited central power in that if a resident doesn’t like how they’re treated, they move out. In general, cities are adaptive in that their residents coordinate activities to improve (or degrade) performance over time. As a result, cities are resilient. They last hundreds of generations of humans. Companies are centrally controlled and eventually ossify into bureaucratic heaps, stifling innovation. Companies generally die after ten years - half a generation. No company in existence has demonstrated any power law behaviors with correlation to observed data better than about 85%. What is the meaning of the word “law” within the phrase “power law”? That is best understood by considering other “laws” we are more accustomed to. I’m a retired engineer (aero, nuke, mechanical, computer, software) who was formally educated on several “laws” of nature. They are laws in the sense that no observation by humans has ever contradicted them. These natural laws include: -Law of conservation of energy -Law of conservation of matter -Law of conservation of momentum -Law of equivalency of mass and energy -First law of thermodynamics: thermal energy flows from higher temperature to lower temperature. -Second law of thermodynamics: in any closed system in which a thermodynamic process occurs, the “waste” energy output, also known as entropy, is always non-zero. A power law is a law of nature. Bitcoin has multiple evident power laws. Price vs time is one of them. What does this mean? A power law is a mathematical model. The model is very simple: y = S*x^A, where y is the vertical axis coordinate, S is a constant that represents a starting y value, x is the integer count of the horizontal axis parameter, and S is a constant representing the constant scale factor. In the case of Bitcoin’s price versus time power law, y is price in USD per BTC x is number of days since genesis block S is an assumed value at start date of 3 Jan 2009. The value I chose is 1/10^17, or, 0.00000000000000001 A is the constant I choose that best “fits” the model to the mean of the data. Best fit has A at about 5.8. Plot this line along with bitcoin monthly average price data on a log-log graph and conduct a regression to the mean analysis. The result is an r^2 value (correlation to the mean) of about 97%. Plot any other asset value and attempt to construct a power law model fit and regression analysis and you won’t find any that correlate better than about 85%. Chaos science studies began in the 1930s. They picked up steam in the 1960s with the advent of low-cost computers. The science has exploded since the 1979s. Here are some popular books by people who you may recognize that describe chaos theory in general and “fractal self-similitude” of power law phenomena specifically: Mandelbrot, Benoit, “The Misbehavior of Markets” Taleb, Nassim, “The Black Swan” Taleb, Nassim, “Antifragile” Gleick, James, “Chaos” West, Geoffrey, “Scale” I recommend that each of you do proof of work on power law and chaos science. It’ll take about 200 hours of reading, studying and critical thinking. I’ve done that. Here’s what I’ve drawn from it: the power law model should never be used as a price predictor of Bitcoin. Why? Because external perturbations (Mt Gox, FTX, 3Arrows, spot ETFs, etc) will get ya! Indeed, a “suddenly” event could cause bitcoin to spike to $20 million. But Bitcoin is resilient to these perturbations and will revert to the mean over time, whether the perturbation is positive stimulus or negative stimulus. Bitcoin is boring. Its reversion to mean over time is just a thing. That it’s mean is something less than what you want it to be doesn’t matter to Bitcoin. Because Bitcoin is boring. Bitcoin’s Power law correlation has strengthened my conviction in its future as money by 2x - meaning I’m doubling down on transferring my wealth from fiat to bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin is boring. Power law demonstrates that. But it’s dependable… as dependable to me as the second law of thermodynamics.

[@v_the_vegan]

This was so much fun! Going to use chat gpt for food and let it have a name! Feels like I’m hanging out with you lol btw I’m on honeymoon in santorini so you were here too 😂

[@nataliebrunell]

I love Santorini! Enjoy! :)

[@edgarc98]

Loooooooove this!❤🎉

[@michaelberico7141]

You guys are great together! Just curious. Did you all become this close through your discovery and common love of BTC? You seem as though you’re lifelong friends! Id like to hear that story in your next joint episode. Thx.

[@THOMPSON8787]

We aren't at 100k yet because it's not time for it to be. It never pumps until 6 months after the halving. We have never broke ATH before halving, and we did. Summer months are always slow historically.

[@B_knows_A_R_D-xh5lo]

excellente

[@REZZA2020]

I am between home guys. HODLing. Blessings from Australia

[@d.b.s.d.rajput8192]

Seeing Cyberopolis strategic moves unfold is like watching a masterclass in crypto innovation. Can't wait to see what's next.

[@salneramsgfreefire5328]

Diving into Cyberopolis has been an eye-opener. The project's depth and potential are astounding. Glad to be onboard early.

[@mukesh_prajapat054]

Cyberopolis's team is comprised of industry veterans. Their experience speaks volumes about the project's potential.

[@AM-po5ec]

An awful lot of chit chat and light on real news, cause there isn’t any or they just don’t know😊

[@TheBitcoinBoomer327]

Totally agree!!! I was thinking the exact same thing!! #GreatMinds

[@davids5970]

Is the downward pressure of the futures market on bitcoin all psychological? It seems like actually having to buy spot bitcoin to hedge would just drive the price up.

[@tcpwiz1]

Bearded Preston is badass.

[@LukaJane]

Bearded Preston - 👍

[@actualfacts1055]

Just talk amongst yourselves guys, we can wait.

[@BreezyMark]

Can we do this everyday? Love starting my AM this way

[@TheChewbaca69]

Preston weigh the meat by grams and put it into a calorie tracker. Im sure itd be more accurate.

[@bettermetalsnake95]

What is the fee for Preston to take his dogs to Canada?

[@gregwaldo4899]

According to Steve Hanke, famed JHU economist, Democrats at the Fed outnumber Republicans, 45 to 1! Chairman Powell is an employee of the Federal government. The Fed is very political and I think they believe interest rates directly control inflation and inflation must be kept low to benefit their party, at the expense of growth.

[@dasrathyadav5503]

Ive had the feeling BTC would be going to 40k as well. Clearing out all my Alts going into BTC and Cyberopolis only, maybe a little BNB.

[@Magnelibra]

Interest rates in the US are contributing to inflation. Lower rates lowers the competitive advantage equity assets have vs USTs once the FOmC lowers rates it reduces its Deferred Asset and Bonds become a better investment than equities.

[@niwalackey8670]

Couldn't resist and grabbed a slice of cyberopolis. Let's see where this goes!

[@SaadAnsari-lj2wk]

Cyberopolis ability to stay ahead of the curve in crypto technology is unmatched. This project is a serious contender for top spot.

[@mandeepmax9294]

Cyberopolis and Ebay signed a partnership. It will blow up once it hits mainstream..

[@MatthewJ-zd6fe]

✊️

[@sarbat7274]

Cyberopolis definitely caught wind of the buzz in a couple of forums.

[@markperl5900]

I wonder if the government's employee pension fund provider has made a bitcoin allocation, yet?

[@ericsurprenant2110]

I'm going to admit that James' explanation of why the Bitcoin price possibly isn't moving went completely over my head, totally lost me 🥴

[@auction00]

Has anyone else noticed that Gold and Silver prices are in lock-step with Bitcoin!!!

[@flamenco1]

Possible downside bottom would be 60,000. Patience needed as we go sideways for a few more weeks.

[@dashiva7069]

I think the short term cost holder basis of 64k is the downside risk. Hopefully, we break thru to new highs soon.

[@flamenco1]

@@dashiva7069 Looking choppy but positive for more upside...Monday around 11:00 am should be the low. Be well James

[@acrobatmapping]

Id say fiscal loose policy is driving the chain and the soft landing.

[@nukkythompson419]

good girl nat

[@ManniramBhati]

Saw the cyberopolis hype train leaving the station in a few chats.

[@stevedre]

OK Halvings and Presidential elections are every 4 years in the same year. Leap Year also. So does the leap year have an effect in BTC Price. Don't think so. Presidential election. not so much. The Halving in the same year as the first 2 events. OK now you got it.

[@NappyWayz]

I was hoping to hear about the petrodollar…😢

[@DanielQZ]

Not an X tweet.. but a Truth Social 'tweet'

[@actualfacts1055]

Could Bitcoin now be a mature asset, possibly.

[@Prmeswearagurjar]

Noticed cyberopolis popping up in conversations on Discord.

[@yjfang22]

Miners selling? (Edited - ok, I see James explaining it.)

[@dsflat6785]

I can see a future where the BTC network hash continues to fall IF the BTC price doesn't double with each halving, which seems highly unlikely.. It's +3000X more expensive to transact on BTC with small blocks as it is to transact on BCH with big blocks according to CoinDance website.. BCH has the same genesis block as BTC The same miners The same halvings The same 21M max supply Just saying

[@NeuroPulse]

You know something is wrong when healthcare for dogs is faster, cheaper and better than healthcare for humans.

[@erikjones3064]

Preston pricing corn in corn?

[@prashant_8233]

Just when I thought I'd seen it all, Cyberopolis comes along. This project is on another level.

[@ananjaykumarkumar]

Decided to jump in on cyberopolis with a small position myself!

[@Coooro9]

1K like

[@iagroupmedia]

is the bitcoin recovered from Mt. Gox being sold now?

[@DK-ik3mi]

Boris Becker is a bitcoiner!? 😂

[@DeepakSahani-l]

Saw some heavy hitters backing cyberopolis up, so I snagged a piece of the action. Fingers crossed 🤞.

[@jashan_editer_14]

The excitement around Cyberopolis is contagious. Each new development reinforces my belief that we're part of something huge.

[@ll_i_am_nick_ll]

Every new partnership Cyberopolis announces adds another layer of confidence in its long-term success. Absolutely bullish!

[@StuartMcIver468]

I lost over $80k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $6k profits weekly. Thanks Elizabeth Wesley.

[@Benjaminholman66]

I'm surprised that this name is being mentioned here, I stumbled upon one of her clients testimonies on CNBC news last week...

[@OliviaMaddow]

YES!!! That's exactly her name (Elizabeth Wesley) so many people have recommended highly about her and am just starting with her from New Jersey🇺🇸

[@HarrisNguyen783]

Really you people know her? I was even thinking that I'm the only one she has helped walk through the fears and falls of trading

[@mustafaburak1123]

Please, how do I connect with Elizabeth Wesley? I would appreciate if you show me how to go about it

[@WhitneyHaynes-kw6gd]

The first time we had tried, we invested $1400 and after a week we received $5,230. That really helped us a lot to pay our bills.

[@actualfacts1055]

Can the US fund redemption of it's treasuries, no it can't.

[@Amit94d]

Seems like cyberopolis gaining traction with the big names.

[@arjundeva2787]

Noticed some influencers hyping cyberopolis up.

[@Scorch428]

That IS a solid beard. Im fuckin 40, and I cant grow a beard like that!!

[@actualfacts1055]

Stocks make profits, Bitcoin doesn't.

[@actualfacts1055]

Put tariffs on Chinese Bitcoin, oops you can't.

[@TheBitcoinBoomer327]

Much of their conversation is quite depressing! 🤷‍♂️

[@vrutikpatel3194]

I am in Canada we can't buy bitcoin so what is the point they want your $ what in your hand nothing Alsaw how come no one knows who is owner of bitcoin satoshiwhat he do with $ It's a scam speculation only

[@PeterBinns]

Don’t need the horrible intro music, just say hi in your nice voice

[@actualfacts1055]

Sanction Russian Bitcoin, oops you can't.

[@rubenortega6088]

Beards are gay

[@user-vj7qx1zy2b]

Bitcon to Zero. Sorry.