NATO Rearmament & Spending in 2023 - Is NATO answering the Russian Challenge?

2022 dramatically changed rhetoric around NATO's strategic position and the importance of conventional military deterrence and preparedness, particularly in Europe.
While many politicians were quick to speak on the need to respond decisively to the new envioronment, both by aiding Ukraine and also building up domestic capability, there was an open question over whether the will and capacity was there to convert announcements into orders and deliveries.
Today, we look at NATO defence spending estimates for 2023 to get an idea of what patterns are emerging, and ask how NATO is responding to the Russian challenge.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats and Corrections:
The main additional caveat to apply to this video is that the expenditure figures are mostly based on a single source - the defence expenditure figures published by NATO (www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ne...)
This means that you may see figures that you think are 'wrong' - in that they do not accord with other sources or methodologies - for example SIPRI figures, nationally published figures or documents like the US NDAA. They are used because they allow for the comparison of multiple nations over multiple years using a consistent methodology and definitions.
While if generating figures myself, I would likely use a different figure and methodology in at least some cases, data analysis of this kind prizes consistency over time and between different parties - which is why I've chosen not to deviate from these figures during this presentation.
All other normal caveats and disclaimers apply, including the nature of the material as entertainment and apologies for any perceived errors or omissions.
Relevant sources/reading:
Defence expenditure by NATO countries - updated to mid 2023
www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ne...
NATO budget announcement: www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ne...
NATO strategic concept (June 2022 version)
www.nato.int/nato_static_fl20...
DW - what happened to the 100B Euro special fund?
www.dw.com/en/what-happened-t...
Article on Russia building 1,500 T90M tanks per year (press X)
militarywatchmagazine.com/art...
Example used in the narrative section:
breakingdefense.com/2022/05/r...
Ukraine to buy Rosomak from Poland
www.defensenews.com/global/eu...
Currency charts per tradingeconomics.com
US Security Assistance to Ukraine
www.state.gov/u-s-security-co...
Reporting on Poland announcements:
breakingdefense.com/2023/08/p...
defence-blog.com/poland-to-bu....
defence24.com/industry/poland...
Govt visit to Excalibur Army
www.excaliburarmy.cz/news/the...
Germany 100B Euro fund approved - 2022
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Example of production ramp up factor
europeanconservative.com/arti...
Poland receives first K2s and K9s
www.president.pl/news/poland-...
Example of foreign purchase factor
kyivindependent.com/media-den...
Example industrial and supply agreement - artillery ammo for UA
www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
The mentioned Reuters report on Russian defence expenditures being revised upwards:
www.reuters.com/world/europe/....
Germany to begin work on F-35 plant
www.dw.com/en/germanys-rheinm...
Reporting on interrelation between supplementals and national procurement
www.defensenews.com/land/2023...
Timestamps:
00:00 - The Race To Rearm: NATO Spending In 2023
02:31 - What Am I Talking About?
03:01 - Data Interpretation
06:43 - The Pre-invasion Picture
10:39 - NATO Responds - 2022
19:59 - NATO Figures - 2023
27:32 - National Examples
27:41 - The US
29:26 - Poland
32:33 - Germany
34:36 - Canada
36:35 - Additional Budget Drivers
44:17 - In Perspective
48:24 - Conclusion
49:23 - Channel Update

[@PerunAU]

Slightly shorter one today - decided it simply wasn't practical to fit NATO, Russia and Ukraine all into the same video without blowing out the duration significantly so ultimately decided to split them up. Also, quick blooper of the episode. I believe I say at one point russia invaded Crimea in 2008. obviously it was 2014. Blooper over. Going to use the pinned comment this week to talk briefly about the data used and my philosophy on using it. In this episode I rely on NATO's recently published defence expenditure estimates. Looking at those estimates you may (if you spend way too much time looking at defence budgets) see some items that look a tad strange. These figures won't align with estimates like SIPRI figures that try to be most holistic for example, or some ways in which countries list and bundle expenditures domestically. Just as when I use MB2022 figures for equipment counts, there are some cases where I would come up with a different figure if generating it myself from scratch. As with MB however, the value of the NATO figures is consistency. They allow for the comparison of many countries using a common set of definitions over time. It may not be perfect, but it allows good time series analysis and more like-for-like comparisons than if we tried to use customised figures for each country and year. I hope that explains why I try and focus on using data sets with wide coverage and am nervous about making custom changes or corrections even when I think they might otherwise be called for. Thanks for your support as always and hope you enjoyed the episode!

[@haydnw869]

Hey Perun mate it’s me again, you’ve been vary busy so good on ya but I would like to ask about what you think or if you’d make a video on AI for military purposes. Check out this video for an AI Los Alamos kzbin.info/www/bejne/bXLEYZyCramMbrM

[@patrickazzarella6729]

Hey Perun, any plans to cover the Russian disinformation space again as it regards to aid in Ukraine? Would love to see you breakdown all foreign aid to Ukraine, how it works, who pays for it. whats in said packages and ultimately dismantle the bullshit arguments you hear from the Right here in America as well as Russia

[@darrylviljoen6227]

I hope this was an "introduction to NATO 2023 defence spending" with more detailed videos to come.

[@dimezreconB4]

​@@patrickazzarella6729😂

[@its_Today_]

‘We really should talk about the Arctic’, yes, yes please! I’d love to hear your analysis on what’s foreseeable *at the mo, with all caveats attached.. Cheers mate, brilliant work and perfect pearlers, laughed and learned Sweet as 👍🇦🇺👏

[@yayekit]

"Pay protests can get very hectic, when the protesters have access to main battle tanks" is such an underrated quote

[@Adept893]

Allusions to Niger?

[@behemoth9543]

@@Adept893 Any country that has a lot of inflation or is trying to cut down on military budget, really.

[@michimatsch5862]

@@behemoth9543 Yeah, once you get a strong military your borders are usually secure. But now you have a lot of people with guns that are already inside your borders. And if you start making decisions that they do not agree with they might start demonstrating their dissatisfaction with quite explosive results.

[@murphy7801]

​​@@Adept893Niger is a bit more complicated, that's more corruption. Because the president of Niger was able to increase its economy and improve the country.

[@maltheri9833]

​@@behemoth9543Good luck busting out a tank in Russia. Heard Putin pulled em off shelves in 2022

[@evilwelshman]

I find it lowkey funny how a *_50+ minute numbers/data-focused_* PowerPoint presentation is Perun's idea of a _SHORTER_ video. 😂😂

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

And that we are sad that it is!

[@yoda0017]

I'm waiting for the day he puts out a video that's longer than Return of the King Extended. I believe it will happen someday.

[@Warszawski_Modernizm]

​@@yoda0017TIKHistory almost achieved this

[@jaykita2069]

But you've got to remember that it is interesting and d___ informative.

[@samiraperi467]

Buildzoid is the same way. I can't remember him making a video under 20 minutes.

[@MTerrance]

"buying things that explode to buying things that deliver things that explode to things that need exploding" - one of the best ways of describing artillery I have ever heard.

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

Another Perun pearl. The man could become a stand-up anyday! Personally I looking forward to 'Perun World Tour- Military procurement - a funny business. Coming to a potential battlefield near you.' I want a front row seat.

[@americankid7782]

I thought I had a stroke while trying to read that. It’s funny but now i have a headache.

[@ALLMINDmercenarysupportsystem]

I had to say that aloud to understand it.

[@dsdy1205]

26:29 for those looking for the soundbite

[@Subsandsoda]

As a Belgian hearing Perun talk about our military: '''stop stop it's already deaaaaad 😭''

[@classifiedad1]

Perun: *reloads pistol, continues firing*

[@ArtisZ]

​@@classifiedad1no mercy. Hard facts. Get your act together Belgium! :)

[@icyknightmare4592]

@@classifiedad1 Perun: 2nd mag runs dry. Places an order for a palette of 9mm and several replacement barrels for a Glock 18.

[@MERLK2]

ey see it this way ... at least your not germany. Having an army that doesnt even get the budget for the basics cause politics, and has to fight against bureaucrats, bad management, politicians playing games ... and now the big scary bear

[@barmybarmecide5390]

Please just let the Dutch or French take over your military 😭

[@TheBeyspieler]

To your point on bureaucracy in procurement: "In some countries that wasnt a titanic barrier; in others, it was Germany," made me first wince in pain and then chuckle at how accurate it was.

[@eljanrimsa5843]

As a German I wince when we pay for systems that don't work, and bureaucracy plays a role in this. But bureaucracy is also necessary to check that Rheinmetall isn't just pocketing money for 10-year-contracts that make no sense 3 years down the line.

[@TheBeyspieler]

@eljanrimsa5843 That's very much true: some oversight is needed and I understand why bureaucracy exists, but in Germany it's often ridiculous, from what I've seen and what I've read. There's also definitely some arbitrary overreach from the Ämter sometimes, like how is showcased in some of the satire I like to watch. The whole system could definitely use an overhaul.

[@occamraiser]

Only it isn't funny and people are dying in Ukraine because Germany couldn't face it's military weakness for a year and pretended that it didn't need to do anything to help Ukraine.

[@occamraiser]

@@eljanrimsa5843 Watch Perun's other videos..... checking every year and second guessing every decision on a 12 month cycle...... for multi year projects...... how is that working out for Germany? (clue: Absurdly badly)

[@eljanrimsa5843]

@@occamraiser > "pretended that it didn't need to do anything to help Ukraine" Why do you claim lies? Are you pushing Russian propaganda? Germany has been weighing every decision a bit longer than it should have, but it has been one of Ukraine's main helpers from the beginning. Among the weapons that Germany sent in 2022, were Gepard, Panzerhaubitze 2000, Iris-T, bridge-laying tanks, all with unique capabilities. More than a million Ukrainian refugees live in Germany. Germany has been crucial in providing financial aid and coordinating the EU response.

[@rossmurray6849]

"And if you do happen to be one of those people who can derive joy from spreadsheets..." Guilty as charged.

[@davidcpugh8743]

Me too. And a background in investment, bureaucracy, and rifle toting. Perun awesome 😎

[@hungrymusicwolf]

I'm more so about the story behind the spreadsheets, and given that I can understand them, but otherwise yes.

[@davidcpugh8743]

Veritas vobiscum? Always follow the numbers?

[@fluffly3606]

I don't quite know how to use a spreadsheet but I'm pretty sure I could derive joy from them if I learned.

[@TomCarpentier]

As a Belgian, this one was painful to watch... I knew things for our military were bad, but had no idea how bad 😅

[@christiandauz3742]

Your currently military is perfectly fine... ...if Belgium went back in time to the Medieval era!

[@christiandauz3742]

@@holzy1979 Walloons are French right?

[@TomCarpentier]

@@christiandauz3742 Wallonia is the southern half of Belgium. French speaking though. North half is Flanders, they speak Dutch.

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

Well, the choice you DO have in a democracy is to inform you member of parlament, that you want him to change it, if he wants you vote next time. Just a discrete suggestion.

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

​@@christiandauz3742 French speaking Belgians, just like NOT all Russian speaking Ukrainians are pro-Russia, right. And the American are not under the British crown, thought they claim to speak English, right.

[@marksullivan2230]

Vladimir, a balding older Russian tourist, is on his very first visit to Bangkok. By complete chance, he finds that he has wandered into Bangkok’s infamous red light district. Vladimir explores and, again by complete chance, he finds himself outside a large bar with scantily clad girls. Now Vladimir certainly did not look at the scantily clad girls … but he did suddenly realise that he was quite thirsty. So he entered the bar. The Mammisan asked the grandfatherly Russian to be seated and sent over a bargirl to entertain him. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she gasps and runs away! Seeing this, the Mammisan sends over a more experienced bargirl to entertain the Russian gentleman. They sit and talk a little, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear, and she screams, "No!" and quickly walks away. The Mammisan is surprised that this grandfatherly short balding man has asked for something so outrageous that her two bargirls will have nothing to do with him. She decides that only her most experienced bargirl, Lola, will do. Lola has never said no, and it's not likely anything will surprise her. So the Mammisan sends her over to Vladimir’s table. They sit and talk a little, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she screams, "NO WAY, YOU CREEP!" and smacks him as hard as she can and leaves. Mammisan is by now absolutely intrigued, having seen nothing like this in all her years of operating a Bangkok bar. Mammisan hasn't done the “entertainment” work herself for a long time, but she's sure she has said yes to anything a grandfatherly Russian could ever possibly ask for. She just has to find out what this man wants that has made her bargirls so angry. Besides she sees a chance to teach all her bargirls a lesson. So she goes over to Vladimir’s table and says that she's the best the bar has available. She sits and talks with him. They talk a little, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He leans forwards and whispers in her ear, "Can I pay in Rubles?"

[@its_Today_]

🤣🤣👏👏👏

[@zenon7094]

That...was...great!

[@aaronfalcon3152]

Best comment hands down.

[@dannyzero692]

The horror of receiving payments in Rubles.

[@dannyzero692]

To be honest receiving payments in Ruble in Bangkok in 2023 is about as close an experience you can get to paying North Korean Won in South Korea.

[@marshabonforte6963]

In his autobiography covering The War Years, Churchill discussed this very topic extensively. In short, rearmament in a democracy is a frustratingly slow, multi year process. In the first few years you spend a lot of money and get almost no output. That’s where the West is at right now.

[@paulbeesley8283]

After a long period of low investment, initial rearmament costs are high and produce little visible benefit because you are not only increasing stock but are having to catch up with new strategic and technical developments (I e. monoplanes for biplanes, carriers for battleships, gun-tractors for horses.)

[@ravanpee1325]

Churchill is a war criminal himself and not one inch better than Putin

[@CompatibilityMadness]

Unless you use cheat code like Poland :D

[@boobah5643]

I'm not so sure 'democracy' is the correct descriptor. I'd probably go with 'modern industrialized state.' Or at the least, a state that requires modern industry to arm itself, whether the industry that does so is domestic or not.

[@Whatisthisstupidfinghandle]

True. Poland definitely pushing it to the max though

[@henrygibbons2354]

In 2021, I would never have guessed that I would spend an hour every week watching a PowerPoint presentation on defense economics. Yet here I am, and here I will be. It is both a professionally edifying and personally rewarding expenditure of time. Bravo Perun, and keep up the good work.

[@andersjjensen]

An hour of slide show is easy to digest when the topic is relevant, well delivered and sprinkled with bone dry humor that hit like a ton of bricks when you least expect it.

[@etrecklefrancois2792]

34:47 Canada: "The nation's military usually doesn't get massive international praise for it's defense procurement." Understatement of the year. The procurement specialists in Ottawa are underfunded, overworked and the most experienced ones get poached by industry due to salaries not keeping up. If that team survives the next 10 years, it'll be a miracle.

[@franklerouge]

The whole Canadian military is : ''overworked and the most experienced ones get poached by industry due to salaries not keeping up. If that team survives the next 10 years, it'll be a miracle.'' , at some point Ottawa must stop depicting our military as a useless waste of money. We need our troops to be proud again.

[@gagamba9198]

Since 1973 Canada's defence spending exceeded 2% of GDP in only 5 years ('83 to '87 inclusive) - Nato's worst sponger. And it was just barely more than 2% in those 5 years. Five decades of under investment will take a long time to overcome, and Trudeau appears to have no interest to address the chronic shortfalls.

[@pergys6991]

@@gagamba9198 biggest understatement of the decade. Trudeau sucks and the provicinial governments under him are even worse

[@etrecklefrancois2792]

@gagamba9198 Well, even in the deep of the Afghan war (2009), Harper asked the CAF to return 200M $+, so to be fair, it is hardly a Trudeau problem. It has been a constant fact since at least 1993 and Chretien's government.

[@theretiringbarber]

Can has great soldiers , weapons include brooms and hockey sticks .

[@DavidGentry-WebDeveloper]

I love the comment he made on how quickly Poland and South Korea created their arms partnership. "It's the ultimate premium delivery option where the courier is pulling into your driveway a picosecond after you hit the order confirm button." Suck on that, Jeff Bezos.

[@a2rgaming863]

Buy now and get free shipping.

[@HypnoticChronic1]

So I'm gonna be the one to ask... South Korean version of Amazon when?

[@MrGeneralissimus]

They probably have one. And You wont be able to pronounce it.

[@AL-lh2ht]

In polands case they bought both American and SK

[@zbigniewp1810]

​@@AL-lh2htto be fair we also bough a shitton from our own industry. Often overlooked, but really significant too.

[@IrishTechnicalThinker]

"It's the ultra premium delivery option where the courier is pulling into the driveway a pico second after you click the order confirm button." Perun is the GOAT. THE GOAT.

[@tdb7992]

Mate, I imagine you've heard by now that Russia's lunar probe just crashed into the moon about two hours ago. Apparently Roscosmos thought they had a 50/50 chance of landing the probe as they have been cut off from Western space technology and a success was to be hailed as "Russia not needing Western tech, screw those sanctions!". It's a pretty amazing fall-from-grace for Roscosmos.

[@blargvlarg1390]

"Special Landing Operation"

[@olec7125]

They successfully intercepted the moon :D

[@igorigor5342]

Damn, everything was fine though until the last maneuver! I felt hope for this spaceship.

[@raidermaxx2324]

it actually crashed? i thought they were having some technical difficulties. . but it would be both awesome and sad(for science) if it did crash, especially after what a douche that director of Roscosmos turned out to be, declaring that russia should nuke everyone over their failed bullshit in ukraine

[@raidermaxx2324]

OH SHIT IT DID CRASH!! THATS HILARIOUS!!! HAHAHAHAHAH RUSSIA SUUUCKS HAHAHAHAHA

[@philipheelan4050]

@perun I’m in Poland at the moment and the polish armed forces day parade was massive. It was there largest parade since the end of the Cold War and there was the K2 and K9 rolling down the street was crazy. Thanks for all that you do.

[@casbot71]

Something to take into account is that NATO has loses from equipment _being donated to Ukraine,_ but Russia is suffering a lot more equipment losses from that donated NATO equipment _being used on them by Ukrainians._ So the NATO equipment is doing its designed purpose.

[@leaveme3559]

How tf would anyone know this?....

[@dimezreconB4]

True equipment losses and casualty figure have not been released for us to consider, either by either the Russians or the West. What basis are you making your statement?

[@keith3761]

sorta? i mean the designed purpose is to either end the war or force russia out? equipment is a resource. tech neither side is accomplishing its designed purpose by expending that resource. Also it's naive to think that NATO defense contractors really care to end the war or not, this war is very lucrative for NATO weapons makers and these people have a outsized influence in how long the war goes on and how much money they can make. Really no side is achieving its "announced or implied" aim yet. Both side are just bleeding funds from each others citizens taxes.

[@rohesilmnelohe]

Main reason why Baltic countries gave as much as they did. Like Estonia giving away all available towed-artillery pieces. Thats THE reason we had them. And UA needed it for that exact purpose. So a win-win.

[@u2beuser714]

Its not so much that russia is dying because of the weapones but rather because of the meat wave tactics they use , you are going to lose many one way or another

[@earlthepearl3922]

Who else can take defense spending as a topic and turn into just short of an hour of an interesting, informative information? I always look forward to my Sunday morning Perun PowerPoint because I always come away better informed and a little smarter. As always, thank you, sir!

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

Yes, Power Point ought to sponsor their best 'promotional gig'.

[@NightHound1337]

Time for my newfound addiction in PowerPoint about military logistics and procurement! Such quality content is an absolute gem!

[@darrylviljoen6227]

Who needs cocaine when you have Perun's dulcet tones.

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

I'm a published author. And I absolutely live for my weekend writing sessions. But when Perun clicks in, I develop an acute writers block! Can't help it. It must be something psychological.

[@Trashste]

14:55 Lithuania mentioned. We've been steadily increasing our budget since Crimea 2014- 320 Million euros 2023- 2 Billion euros With the jump of our budget since the full scale invasion of Ukraine, we've rushed our projects like Himars (Delivery date 2025 instead of 2027) Started projects we only planned to start in the 2030's, like our first Tank battalion since the pre occupation days of 1939. (The Lithuanian defense ministry has allready sent a letter of intent to German manfucturers for the Leopard 2a8 tank, planned to be around 55 units). And many more examples like this. Love your content, keep it up!

[@lamwen03]

Some countries have more of an incentive to 'read the room' than others. 😅😅😅

[@sjonnieplayfull5859]

"Si vis pacem, para bellum." He who desires peace, prepares for war Lithuania is not aggressive, but it will not fall for any Russian trick again....

[@ArtisZ]

​@@lamwen03Not only "read the room", but nearly "predicting the future" while everyone else was calling that alarmist/rusophobia.

[@kajus1402]

Indeed. Hopefully we get our division fully set up, HQ unit has already been formed, just might take a while, considering how slowly the Fusilier battalion is being formed and that was started before the decision to form the division was taken. Definitely a country that deserves a deeper dive imo.

[@lamwen03]

@@ArtisZ"Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it".

[@deaks25]

It does make me laugh when I see thinly veiled threats aimed at Poland. Historically seeing the Poles on the opposing team is guaranteed to mean hard, tenacious and almost fanatical fighting, and Russia’s invasion seems to have the entire country spitting proverbial feathers in a barely contained fury. So when I see the scale of Poland’s rearmament plan, I do think it would be a incredibly stupid Russian, Belarusian or PMC commander who starts that fight, especially if the rearmament plan does go through as planned, because I’m pretty sure Poland would have its entire army on the doorstep of Minsk before they got around to pushing the Article 5 button.

[@classifiedad1]

America: Poland, why do I see pictures of Abrams tanks in Minsk? Poland: Oh, those are some old photos. America: What do you mean “old?” Poland: We’re uh, in Smolensk. America: Poland: America: I really want to endorse this, I really do.

[@notreallyhere67]

@@classifiedad1Sounds like a script from Habitual Linecrosser lol

[@Jfk2Mr]

Nice one

[@annominous826]

Poland is like Goku. Every time they're defeated, they come back stronger.

[@SVSky]

A Perun quote here is great "Are you really a Polish government if you deny yourself an opportunity to kick the Russians in the teeth?"

[@funkymarco4411]

I have talked to some people of the royal Dutch navy and especially those who work in research, and they have said that since the war in Ukraine, their limit is time and not money. This wasn't the case last 15 years.

[@paulbeesley8283]

Time is always a major factor once you have spent it.

[@hungrymusicwolf]

@@paulbeesley8283The one problem with time is that you cannot spend it then earn it back like with money. We've wasted a few too many decades not spending wisely in the west.

[@effexon]

it looks we are in 1914 to 1915 of WW1 timescale... then in 1916 big battles, 1917 even bigger battles, with new tanks and planes. iirc nobody talks of 1915 WW1 context... and 2023 seems that way... just slow grinding, no major victories. all to prepare of course, no work, no gain.

[@paulbeesley8283]

@@effexon In 1915, armies were still getting used to the new realites (the main one being that it would NOT, be over by Christmas,) just as now, we seem to be getting used to the old realites (including, it will NOT, be over by Christmas.)

[@demrandom]

yeah the joke if some carribean nation invaded the dutch carribean islands used to be "do we send one destroyer, two, or all three?"

[@jak00bspyr72]

Polish Armed Forces are undergoing a truly full scale transformation. It is worth to mention that on top of new procurements the formation of our 5th division (called 1st Infantry Division) has recently began, and there are deep organisational and doctrinal reforms on the way. By 2026 we will see the first real effects of the transformation, when the first orders will be finished. Our artillery and tank arsenals will undergo a generational change. Old ex-Soviet 2S1 howitzers, PT-91 MBT's (basically a deep T-72M1 modernisation) and the rest of BM-21 Grad will be phased out of service. Instead, our artillery will consist of 212 K9A1 howitzers, 180 AHS Krab howitzers, 120 Rak 120mm mortars, of course provided that we won't order more of them, aswell as 288 K239 Chunmoo, each with twice as much firepower as US Himars, which we will have at least 20. I'm not even counting less important systems we will most likely still have in service, namely WR-40/RM-70 MLRS (around 100 pieces) and Dana howitzers (around 100 pieces). Our tank force will be made out of 366 Abrams MBT's (250 M1A2 SepV3 and 116 M1A1 FEP), 180 K2 MBT's and 233 Leopard 2 MBT's (2A5 and 2PL). Effectively the most potent artillery and tank force in the EU. And don't even think it's over with the shopping spree. In the coming months we will place another order on Rosomak APC's, with order on possibly around 400 of them, and we still wait for an order on Himars MLRS and Apache helicopters. That's for the most recent plans, but in 2025 we can expect the beggining of mass production of K2PL MBT in Poland, aswell as the new heavy infantry fighting vehicle, of which 700 units will be procured. That's on top of light and amphibious IFV Borsuk of which 1400 units are on order. We also still await for an order for another two squadrons of fighters, we also wait for light tank destroyers with Brimstone missiles and new submarines. So yeah. Poland will have her borders. Even if on the last map Humanity ever draws.

[@jdawg8487]

Poland knows what’s at stake with what’s going on in Ukraine. Unfortunately some NATO countries (especially Germany) are still dragging their feet expecting things can return to normal with Russia.

[@jak00bspyr72]

@@jdawg8487 Precisely, but it's not only about securing our independence. We are way more ambitious than that. Poland aims to become a provider, and not a receiver, of security in the Central and Eastern Europe, willing to take the lead in the security architecture on NATO's eastern flank. Poland wants to increase her international position this way and end with peripheral status of our region. The ultimate goal is to achieve the position of a regional power and a leader of smaller Central and Eastern European countries, and thanks to combined economic and military power, finally release the true potential of the region.

[@azravalencia4577]

@@jdawg8487 Poland really, really knows about Eastern Europe. They dont want to make the same mistake Pilsudzky did and their sandwhiched of 1939

[@daliborbobr6331]

pity that Poland is losing democracy at the same time. The enemy of my enemy is not my friend. (I am Czech)

[@jak00bspyr72]

@@daliborbobr6331 The situation is not as bad as some people try to portrait it is. In reality of course there are some problems with democracy in Poland, but the current ruling party is slowly losing power, and what they currently have is nothing compared to extent of power in hands of Victor Orban or Erdogan. We have new elections this Autumn, and it is already certain that the PiS party will not be able to achieve majority in Polish Sejm. I'm not concerned.

[@KirosanaPerkele]

21:14 "In Finland and Poland I am convinced that the response to a territorially expansionist Russia is basically genetically ingrained reflex at this point." Speaking for Finland, why yes. It is.

[@christiandauz3742]

Finland and Poland should donate everything they could to Ukraine Free houses in Ukraine for Polish and Finnish volunteers!

[@effexon]

@@christiandauz3742houses were built in ukraine, donated to regular civilians as I remember

[@christiandauz3742]

@@effexon I meant the houses taken from the Donbass traitors and Russians to give to volunteers

[@HanSolo__]

@@christiandauz3742 Shush, we are already out there. No need to inform everyone around.

[@HanSolo__]

The same here in Poland. You can't fight with your DNA. But: "If you want wins, bring Finns"

[@nightpups5835]

sandbagging the baseline is one of the big issues with a lot of science papers. a 200% increase in effectiveness sounds great, but when you learn that it went from working in .0001% of cases to working in .0003% of cases it sounds WAY less meaningful.

[@kondziu1992]

With 200% increase it would went from .0001% to .0003% ;D

[@nightpups5835]

@@kondziu1992 ahh, I knew it felt wrong, now it's corrected

[@eljanrimsa5843]

In scientific papers this is not a big issue because this kind of information is provided. And if you have to run your particle accelerator 1,000,000 times to make one observation on average, than an improved method to run it 300,000 times for one observation on average is a pretty big deal.

[@kemarisite]

This reminds me of a line about how rapidly Japan's economy was growing in the late 19th-early 20th centuries in comparison with the UK and USA. Namely, that it looked great because Japan cheated by starting with a neo-paleolithic baseline.

[@nightpups5835]

@@eljanrimsa5843 true, more referencing to medical fields with drug testing that can see tiny effects that then get exaggerated to the public, but in reality, barely have a detectable effect above placebo.

[@fransvalli1985]

Regarding the Finnish defence spenditure. My understading is that a lot of the increase is about us getting the new F35s. We bought the current F18s in the 90s, they are reaching the end of their service life and needed to be replaced around this time. The process of procuring them was started already before the current Russian invasion and was going to take place regardless of the invasion, so it shouldn't be viewed as a response to the invasion.

[@Pikkabuu]

No. It is from the four new corvets we are currently building. We haven't yet started to pay for the F-35's, but we are currently paying for the ships.

[@tuomasperttula3651]

​@@Pikkabuu No, it's the F-35. There's 1,41B € budget line in the 2023 budget for that alone. edit. my bad, that has been in the budget for the last couple of years already. In 2022 the F-35 procurement was 1,52B, and in 2021 1,48B. The increase from 2022 to 2023 is in the other procurement budget line.

[@nickcharles1284]

And what 'defense' did the f-18s accomplish? What enemy was repelled? Answer: the same 'defense' that the f35s will. No defense, no enemy.. Russia was as likely to attack Finland as it was to land on Mars. So that tax money that would have gone to social services and infrastructure for , well, the Finnish people, went instead to US defense contractors. "Thank you Finland, for my new pool and Jaguar!" (P.S. the F35 is a Mithril plated piece of crap. See: "Ongoing headaches with F-35 fighter jets are rippling through the rest of the US military's combat aircraft fleet" - Insider Magazine

[@Zereniti77]

Finland is spending on F-35, new multifunction corvettes for the navy, Davids Sling anti-air systems from Israel, new anti-ship missiles from Israel, new rifles for troops, anti-artillery radar systems and increasing the ammunition reserves.

[@knpark2025]

19:29 It's as if the factory simply erased two first letters from our tanks' destinations and turned "buyer: ROKA" into "buyer: PolsKA". Hence Korean camo paint on the Polish K9 deliveries. We are impatient people addicted to overnight shipping and 30-minute food deliveries.

[@Zaprozhan]

Reminds me of the shiny American planes in WW2. The time for the paint to dry during manufacturing was considered excessive. Similarly, the paint was already on the K9s, and repainting would TAKE TOO LONG!

[@Zazyr]

Excellent content as usual. I particularly enjoy humorous remarks about Poland, being a Pole myself i find them absolutely hilarious!

[@zbigniewmalec4816]

It kinda makes me worried. We had similar situation before (36-39). Did not end up well. It looks like we are preparing for some kind of deluge in like next 5-10 years.

[@effexon]

@@zbigniewmalec4816worried how? orders not coming through before something big can happen? yah I have feeling too something is in works, maybe all over world or close to, multiple continents simultaneously.

[@zbigniewmalec4816]

@@effexon in 38-39 Poland was spending considerable amount of budget for military with the aim to be ready in 1942. Did not work out. Some of the current purchases seems forced - why to emergency buy k9, why not invest in increased capacity for ahs krab. It's just couple of years of difference.

[@effexon]

@@zbigniewmalec4816ah good detail. hopefully none of that will be needed, but I see your point, looks a bit panicy move. glad ukraine had plenty of equipment albeit soviet era, in stocks that they could repel first weeks without western help. but that also speaks how much they had. Im not aware why those decisions were made, many times future politics and relations between countries play into it, even with time delay/cost inferiority risk. in these matters us civilians are often 2-3 years delay blindsighted from all details agreed between leaders.

[@piotrjasielski]

@@zbigniewmalec4816 The difference is that we are currently preparing well and we will be ready before Russia can rebuild their military. If they ever can before they collapse.

[@franklerouge]

I use to work in munition manufacturing. I could take months just to set-up the manufacturing line; installing the equipment, testing of all the cameras and arrays of censors with the lab. pre-prod. The wrong white paint may send an order back to the factory for...°°°°°°. Training the team that is going to be on the line and the new guys and gales hired because of increase in production. it takes time to start the machine safely for the workers and the end users. Everything has to be tested. Samples during production have to be fired, shells have to be X-rayed 100/100. Every steps of the production has tests over tests... Plus, government contract are usually in march. But when it is started, when the 3 shifts are rolling out the iron rain out the gate.... its scary to see how good we got at this in a century.

[@trioguitar]

To add to those accurate observations, my experience in the sector (from a few decades ago) is that QA is beyond anything you would have found back in the day, and rejections could occur on the most miniscule superficial imperfection.

[@Versatilty]

One thing not mentioned was a number of months back the USA reexamined their funding to Ukraine and found that the USA was putting replacement costs on the books and not actual costs so it was readjusted and there was additional money for Ukraine in the millions of US Dollars so there's that.

[@timothykatende8484]

Come on this was broad day corruption. How can the US with all the accounting software and best universities in the world claim to make mistakes at the highest level ...we ain't stupid...this war is all about corruption in the west for the politicians no wonder they don't want to talk peace

[@TheNaldiin]

Billions, not millions. As an accountant I was hardly surprised but it looks sus as hell to a lot of people. Which makes me point out how often the Pentagon flubs audits in normal circumstances.

[@Stadtpark90]

I like your sarcasm. 16:02 Ukraine getting the good stuff - from the post Disco era and the era of dial-up internet, finally. 18:36 US Army replacing old cars with new ones 19:02 Poland getting the Korean delivery in what in military procurement terms could be considered a picosecond… 26:04 actual increase in equipment spending in 2023 - pretty sobering

[@sonicslv6132]

To be fair, post Disco era to era of dial up internet actually have the coolest stuff in modern human history so far. Stuff that you can actually own, long lasting given proper maintenance, and user repairable!

[@kaltenburg2637]

Disco inferno!

[@LeftCoastStephen]

Regarding the increases in Canada’s procurement, your digs at Germany’s bureaucracy could easily be made against Canada. As a Canadian, I am embarrassed that most of our “newest” ships andaircraft are 30+ years old and their replacements have been talked about repeatedly for 20 years. Our tanks are a bit newer, but as of January 2023, only 20% are considered operational. Talk about sandbaggin!

[@rettichdergeile9361]

Well we actually increased procurement speed withe the Bundeswehr Beschaffungs Beschleunigungs Gesetz, or Bundeswehr Procurement fastening Law. Which allows us to buy equipment without having a big contest for the most minor things

[@nickcharles1284]

I'm embarrassed that a Canadian thinks Canada needs high end tanks and planes. Why not just pass a law that citizens of Canada must burn a percentage of their salaries every month? That would save everyone the time and energy of having to actually buy and maintain that expensive equipment that you will never use in defense of Canada. Save time, but same result. Then you can do more fishing.

[@LeftCoastStephen]

@@nickcharles1284 If the world didn’t have countries like Russia I would agree with you. Unfortunately, while might doesn’t make right, the threat posed by those that think that way must be contained. If not by actual war, at least by the credible threat of war. I would gladly take the subsidies the carbon fuel industries receive and spend it on our military. As witnessed by the recent events in NWT and B.C. our capacity to move personnel and equipment anywhere and to evacuate people is sorely lacking. I doubt tanks and fighters are needed but ships, transport aircraft and APC’s would good to have together with enough trained personnel to do more than one mission at a time.

[@nickcharles1284]

If you refer to the use of funds for rapid emergency response equipment etc, I'm in agreement, and exactly my point. The problem is that you are reversing reality: the US is a 'country like that', not Russia. @@LeftCoastStephen

[@leonwong9129]

@@nickcharles1284 If the US, not Russia is a "country like that" wouldn't Canada need a military MORE beacause Canada has a border with the US, not Russia?

[@angmoh69]

Perun, I hope you get proper pay for your efforts. Your analysis and gathering and explaining of hard to get by information is extremely helpful in trying to navigate this fast changing world. Big thanks from Norway!

[@MrBizteck]

I know of at least 2 British members of the armed forces using PERUN videos in offical logistic and procurement presentations in the UK MOD( Im not going to get into more specifics as its a small world)

[@frankhaugen]

My favorite time of the week: PowerPoint presentation time 😂

[@effexon]

as kid what I thought what 2020s will be like: flying cars, uber 8K video games, VR.... every day coca cola 2023: Perun spreadsheet presentation in internet every sunday.

[@riman8493]

As a Dane, and thus a Scandinavian, I would have loved to shake your hand and express my gratitude for all the insights you share every week! I've been following the channel since the war broke out and it's been an educational, humbling and often humorous experience! =) I really hope you enjoyed your stay, while it lasted, and I look forward to the video next week.

[@trE3E3]

The comment about scale of large nations really hits home. Imagine starting a game of Civilisation. In the beginning one warrior is an enormous 3 turn investment. When you're empire starts to spread, every city producing a warrior is enough to conquer the entire world if it was still Turn 1.

[@hungrymusicwolf]

It's one of the reasons why the difference between immortal and deity difficulty AI is so massive: Deity AI get to start with 2 settlers/cities instead of 1. You'd be surprised how much of a difference that makes.

[@tbotalpha8133]

Unfortunately Civilization doesn't model the other half of that equation. As a polity grows in size, its productivity increases exponentially. But its upkeep costs also increase exponentially. So every polity will naturally grow until it reaches an equilibrium between productivity and upkeep. Developments, discoveries and inventions can all boost productivity or reduce upkeep, pushing that equilibrium higher. But then you need more and more educated people to maintain all your advanced infrastructure and administration, which means you need to invest in education, which means more of your productivity tied up in even more upkeep, and... Basically, it's not as simple as "small country weak, big country strong". It really depends on how much of its production a country can actually direct towards military action, without starving other areas of its economy, or actively cannibalizing itself.

[@hurrdurrmurrgurr]

@@tbotalpha8133 Not just an issue with civ, every strategy game I've played is eager to reward expansion but doesn't deal with the increased burden of that expansion leading to simplistic go wide strategies. I'd like to find one where that isn't the case.

[@andersjjensen]

@@hungrymusicwolf If you double your ability every turn, then the one that starts with 2 will always be twice as strong. Early on, where hit-odds can still fluke the individual skirmishes, that can still be manageable, but when it's 512 vs 1024 the averages starts kicking your butt to a pulp with boring predictability.

[@piotrjasielski]

I can confirm 'One IFV for every Pole' is the plan.

[@marcinmaj848]

I just want my RPG7 with multiple types of grenades - light crayons for soft targets, heavy for turning things into their primal form and substance, and tandem for stubborn MBTs.

[@judithcampbell1705]

As a Canadian, I had no idea how bad our military was. And with the state of the world right now, we better get to work to build it up and get ready for battle! Thank you 💛 Perun for your excellent report today. Much appreciated Sir!!!

[@harrymoyes5069]

Take note of Putin's longer term fantasy. Control the Arctic, and recover Alaska. It would be wise to, at least take note of, the spew in the Russian media.

[@bilodeaumichael3]

Gonna need a hell of a leadership change both in Parliament and the CAF to do that.

[@jimgraham6722]

Turn AUKUS into CANAUKUS could be a start.

[@insane_troll]

Yeah, you wouldn't want to be invaded by .... um ... (checks map) ... Greenland?

[@kaltenburg2637]

Its not bad, its just small

[@guidosarducci209]

😂 "In some countries that wasn't a Titanic barrier; in others, it was 'Germany.'" 😂

[@Ricamundo]

Here's a Canadian soldier's load out these days. A shovel for filling sandbags in fllood zones, a water hose to fight forest fires, and latex gloves for changing adult diapers in nursing homes. Nice camo though.😞

[@melindacadarette3447]

Don't forget shovelling snow from blizzards, cleaning up storm areas and evacuating civilians from disaster zones (they're not fighting fires though but nonetheless still a great workout and experience in teamwork and disaster management).

[@giovannitavar]

The poles are no joke damn much respect. I hope the rest of Europe takes note they don’t need money for war in the far future they need it yesterday.

[@CrossFortune]

I've learned so much in the last year and a half from Perun. While I'm crushed at the circumstances of this channel turning to this sort of content in beyond grateful for every video that is released.

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

Couldn't agree more. Sad, black background, but bright stars of knowledge and new insight. I often wonder if that is why he chose a black background? Not to appear TOO frivolous, with his wit? Just a thought.

[@antoniosayoub4800]

I finally got my fix of defense economics . I’m afraid of what I would’ve done without it.

[@BazsiHHH]

i just hope you dont have access to main battle tanks when your patience runs out

[@hungrymusicwolf]

​@@BazsiHHHWhen that happens you better hope they put as many barriers between him and f-16s as they do for Ukraine. Otherwise who knows what will happen.

[@user-BasedChad]

I would love a video about Greece, its procurement programs and its geopolitical maneuvers will propably be a nice topic, from the treaty with france and the close relations with the us to the opposite relations between the country and turkey

[@HanSolo__]

Agreed;

[@darylbas8216]

Same here. I was hoping he would go into what the hell was happening with Greece, but he didn’t even mention it.

[@casbot71]

*China watching NATO rearm:* Oh FFS, nice one Russia. ...

[@anasqader3851]

China is at the other side of the world they're no threat to NATO they never said they have interests in putting Chinese soldiers in Europe

[@timthetiny7538]

Nato won't be in the pacific.

[@haruka6672]

It's not Nato it's Japan. 320 billion spending check for missiles, 8 new version upgraded Mogami Class Frigates 11,000 tons displacement. 2 new Aegis Destroyers 2 percent of Gdp in Military before it was 1percent.

[@timthetiny7538]

@@haruka6672 China will go before Japan is ready

[@alexbrokholm4883]

In Denmark we have neglected a lot of our defense spending. A memo was published back in august 2022 from the ministy of defense, and we don't live up to all of our 17 nato strength targets. Here it appears that we only lives up to three strength targets: -Two long-range drones for the North Atlantic and the Arctic on high alert from 2032, the purchase process is underway. - Three Hercules transport planes. Here, Denmark has four of its kind. - Three Thetis expedition ships for the North Atlantic and the Arctic. Here, Denmark has four. In contrast, we only partially or not at all lives up to the other 14 strength targets, either because the deadline has been exceeded or because we are behind in investments: - A heavy infantry brigade on 90 days readiness. - Short-range air defense for the Army and the Air Force. - Radar and missile system to combat rocket attacks against the Army. - A frigate equipped to fight submarines. - Two frigates on high alert and one on low alert armed with 183 missiles. - Maritime helicopters for the four frigates. - Long-range air defense for example Patriot. - Capacity to lay 100 sea mines. - 30 combat aircraft with up to 90 days of readiness - 48 missiles for F-35 fighter jets to combat enemy air defense radars. - Reconnaissance and intelligence unit for the Army's 1st Brigade. - Headquarters for special forces operation. - Logistics and transport for the deployment of Danish and allied forces. - Five EH-101 troop transport helicopters

[@effexon]

was there any fines or other consequences from slipping these targets as nato member? in EU it looks many bigger countries simply ignored agreed economic rules and didnt get any consequences. smaller countries like greece of course cant get away like that.

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

Thanks for the updated overview.

[@alexbrokholm4883]

@@effexon no not really, other than critic from other Nato members, and bad atmosphere at Nato meetings

[@bartisreallykewl]

As an American the idea of an arms shortage is literally unimaginable to me. I feel so bad for every one else. The amount of nato countries still making do with Soviet hand-me-downs really puts it in perspective. Like we have an entire armies’ worth of equipment, Vehicles included, that sits on a giant boat in the Indian Ocean and is ready to deploy at a moments notice. This is one of like a dozen super caches around the planet to simply the Mobilization of a truly global military force. It’s insane right?

[@printaboy]

Czech here - our country in last month or so passed into law that military spending will always be 2% of GDP. So it's not just one time thing increase, but long time which will allow to better plan and alocate funds. We are now in the process of acquiring several dozens of Leopard 2s, 246 CV 90 IFVs and 24 F-35s, not mentioning other things like expanding the army personnel in coming years. We are small county but we are finally doing our part and I am proud of us.

[@Sylteagurk]

It feels wrong to say it this way; but this one is the best in a while for me (wrong because they're all excellent)! It's so interesting to learn about how the decadent mountain is shifting it's gears. Biased being from Norway, but I would LOVE an Arctic episode. Keep up the great work! Edit: When data is available, a deep dive in Ukraine's MIC would be even better.

[@DefaultProphet]

Poland not fucking around is so good to see. They’re really saying they’re not going to be partioned again.

[@andersjjensen]

I love the meme where Poland asks "How many HiMARS systems did it take to fuck up Russia?" and the answer is "18...".... then Poland goes "I'll take 420 then".

[@fedmankassad2879]

As always a presentation of the highest quality, Perun. I am glad, that you have enjoyed your time in Scandinavia. We look forward to your next visit 😊

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

Do you know anything about where he's been?

[@fedmankassad2879]

@@ulrikschackmeyer848 I believe, that within the past two weeks, Perun was in Copenhagen to conduct an interview.

[@nicolaasstempels8207]

"....one of those people who can derive joy from spreadsheets" this is why I love your style ( just one small example). Not just content that makes one think one learned quite a bit (yes, I do), but such a great way of presenting. I even started liking the Ozzy accent.

[@SGresponse]

*Aussie accent :P

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

My thoughts exactly, apart from you probably not watching your spell check on Aussie.

[@shrimp708]

Yes! Another hour long power point presentation about numbers!!!!!!

[@danh9002]

Perun, Your quips and sarcasm truly bring happiness and joy. Thank you for making what would seem to be an incredulo-boring topic very interesting!

[@kylewhite5695]

Another banger from the sun tzu of logistics. Great work perun

[@guybrushthreepwood362]

Perun has ascended into making a video even more about defence economics than usual

[@kazafitzpatrick]

The very best analysis of anything anywhere is consistently provided by Perun! All of journalism should take note. Thank You for your superb effort and resulting product.

[@NoPegs]

"Deriving joy from spreadsheets" is one of the few joys left in my modern life. :3

[@MadmanInUkraine]

@perun Thanks yet again! For bringing us another piece of research, enough material to cross check and ponder on. Much appreciated!

[@drbobiwsky]

Minute mark 2 when you mention spreadsheets my husband grins and sends the video to me saying "He is talking about me!" Thank you for the awesome spreadsheet, he will be explaining it to me lol

[@eloscilatore]

I dream of a day, when people will learn difference between Slovakia and Slovenia

[@kondziu1992]

As a Pole - it's not a problem at all... :D

[@HeadsFullOfEyeballs]

To be fair, Slovaks themselves seem confused on this point, seeing as they call their country "Slovensko" :p

[@armaceerulogos]

I just love the humor, you tend to express your thoughts with, Perun! 🤣 Keep p the good work! Best regards from Poland!

[@TorianTammas]

I guess Russia can park the new armaments right next to the 2000 Armata's they wanted to be built by 2020. There is a lot of space beside the imagined production. Russia has the economic GDP of Italy. Russia spent a lot of money on corruption, super weapons and this was at a time when they had money. With the limping economy, they will have to cut the little welfare Russia provides and when the money for the retired no longer comes then Russia has even more trouble.

[@CMY187]

Konstantin of the Inside Russia KZbin channel has said that while the military economy in Russia is still being propped up and in some areas even being somewhat improved, the Russian civilian economy is being absolutely ravaged and neglected by the Kremlin.

[@franklerouge]

It would be glorious if they reset all the production lines for war economy to find out a year later that the fuses on the shells are coming from nato countries and the its not happening anymore... A man can dream....

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

Perhaps better still if the ordinary Russians got so fed up with being mistreated by their own government, that they put one in power that made Russia mind its OWN business . Behind their OWN borders. I can dream too.

[@haruka6672]

If you go to Rural Russia. You will find toilet is literally hole in the ground. I basically grew accustomed to during 2 months in Russia

[@avroarchitect1793]

@@CMY187 so the same mistake the USSR made. You can't run an entire economy off of military production. You need to have a civilian economy of significant strength and size to make it work.

[@ZontarDow]

As a Canadian we aren't spending nearly enough, we should frankly be sending the British an order for two Queen Elizabeth class carriers and 144 F-35Bs to the US

[@avroarchitect1793]

nah forget the carriers and B variants. What we need is a fleet of destroyers and nuclear subs. The arctic won't patrol itself.

[@kx4998]

From what has been said/implied, it seems that Boeing was lobbying for a ban of Bombardier c-series jets as they claim anti-trust due to it being partly funded by Canadian government which resulted in the Canadian representatives walking out just as the final details are being negotiated.

[@tyfighters002verkerk9]

​@@avroarchitect1793exactly

[@barrybolton1396]

​​@@avroarchitect1793I was just going to say that....the world needs Canuks floating around in sub murdering Frigates

[@blahblah7720]

why 144?is it because you are a religious goon of lucifer eager to do a mockery of the bible?

[@marksullivan2230]

Thanks Perun - excellent analysis as always!

[@hashtag5735]

God KZbin knows I love this content so much it insta drops it into my reccomends as soon as it pops up

[@MrTewaka2]

Your delivery of precis and easily understood info is second to none. Good work Perun I've been hooked for along time now cheers

[@jacobno7400]

Amazing video as always! I missed last weeks and was thrilled to get this weeks video. Thank you for all the hard work you and the team do Perun!

[@Laufbursche4u]

Great work. (As always) This channel is really helpful for getting the big picture.

[@casbot71]

Poland should look at building a Toyota factory specialised in Hiluxs, so every Pole can drive a Technical...

[@HanSolo__]

We have a Toyota plant making engines. The northeast part of the country already extensively uses framed lifted 4x4s with reduction and diff-locks in terms of their (mine as well) daily.

[@kraag6641]

Thank you for everything you do Perun. I wake up every Sunday with anticipation!

[@TheGrace020]

Hope you had a good time here in Scandinavia much love Perun! ❤

[@EShirako]

I've been trying to explain this to more of my R friends than I'd like to think, but at least they CAN discuss it, so...I'll take it and see what I can do. But in short, the cluster munitions were due to be disposed of soon. This means 'setting up plants for the program' and 'someone got contracted to take them apart and incinerate A, recycle B, and 'hazardous waste' C, etc...or we can 're-budget $100 million in cluster munitions to Ukraine" and we are both giving them to a good cause AND not going to have to poison our own lands to effectively 'dispose of them' without needing to make a mess to do it. AND we need to fund the replacement items, so more of our own 'defense industrial complex' stuff as a result. Same thing for older tanks that are too good for us to ditch or recycle but not so good that we don't have a NOTABLE upgrade available to take its place. We get rid of what we didn't WANT to discard, but if it has to be given over to a good cause...well, watch us not cry about our new tanks! Except way too many ARE crying about it. It's so crazy...most independent and Dems are all "Yes; continue all of the Ukrainian aid for Freedom!" It has been really, really strange to watch our American 'political divide' choke on this issue.

[@KarlJeager]

From an outsiders perspective this seem really weird, with the historical attitude of the US right to Russia I would have expected their glee at being able to so easily screw over the Russians to be practically orgasmic instead of this "I'm not sure why but the TV told me to support Russia and screw over any current and future allies for some reason, so that's what I'm gonna do!"

[@nedsnow6566]

Remember people. Poland is acquiring, through the next years, more than 1500 tanks, 1500 IFVs, 800 SAVs, 720 SPGs, 215 SPMs, 583 MLRS (including 200 HIMARS), 17 AA Systems, 31 AA batteries (including 8 Patriots), 150 Helicopters, 124 Fighters (including 32 F-35As), and other stuff.

[@TuxCommander]

Even the stuff is coming in the numbers stated. I can hardly imagine, how they wanna pay it and keep it operational. Poland is economically to weak for that amount on a long term. If there is no war within the next years, I see the majority of the equipment on the second hand table quite quickly.

[@marrs1013]

It sounds great, but that means half a million people in arms, being 'non productive' from economic point of view. Good luck keeping that up for the next decade.

[@CompatibilityMadness]

@@TuxCommander I think it's better to have relatively new thing still in storage for 15-25 years, than to try to use 40+ year old equipment because "that's the only thing we got left". Poland situation is similar to other post-soviet states as it doesn't have industrial base to reinvent itself, and starting point is mostly Soviet era equipment (modernization/maintenance can only go so far). Perun mentioned this is Poland's military video in 2022. Current Poland's government probably doesn't care (yet) about future budget, since it may not have to (there will be parliamentary elections in October 2023).

[@TuxCommander]

@@CompatibilityMadness That's true and I generally agree. However I still think less stuff would be more beneficial. It's about the maintenance overall which is hard on modern equipment. Just see almost all major NATO forces. Even economical power houses struggle to keep it tidy. The ones with smaller forces perform much better in terms of readiness. In a conflict numbers matter - of course. But when reality hits, it hits mostly hard. And I don't see Poland here to sustain a big military force for long. And as you said, a successor government will have funny times when they get the bill.

[@ladrok97]

​@@TuxCommander1500 IFV is needed. This is how many Poland had BMP-1, so this is amount quite reasonable. Tanks is doubling the number of what Poland had before the war, but most of them (1000) is planned to be maintained and produced in Poland. Also USA is thinking about Abrams being repaired in Poland, so the maintaince costs of IFV and tanks probably won't bee too hard to accept

[@j.s.c.4355]

You’re presentations are always the most valuable context I can find. if I stop following every other channel, I will still follow you.

[@davidmushal7862]

I decidedly enjoyed this back to basics episode. Thank you for what you do for all of us, Perun.

[@shooster5884]

Top quality talk! Ye wouldn't get it at a university.. Perun is definitely a born presenter, not to mention the research and organization of the material into a logical and easy to follow string of information.. with some class humour thrown in in presentation! 🥰

[@JAllenKaiser]

The content on this channel is documentary-level excellence. I greatly appreciate all your work, Perun.

[@davidcpugh8743]

If there is anyone being more studied than Perun in this world? Genius analysis.

[@Ayns.L14A]

Happy Sunday Perun, what could be better than a coffee and Perun brief........

[@Nathan-Roman]

guess I got to cancel my plans of going to bed, new Perun video dropped 2 minutes ago

[@johnallen7462]

We need to get you an award for awesome one liners. Getting up there with the Arnold shoot em up movies in the late 90's. Love the content!

[@gamecube6]

Look at what this video is about and look at the views! It always blows me away that these topics have such traction. Great video once again

[@stephenbakerjr267]

definitely a noticeable and aporeciated return to the core of what makes this channel unique. i like all the videos but these type are your best.

[@RelativeGalaxy7]

Looking forward to an eventual video on Canadian defense and procurement, we desperately need a video to show off the mess we usually make for ourselves.

[@bryanbonifacio2271]

I love seeing Perun's presentations on spreadsheets!😂

[@duanemagnuson4069]

It remains my view that you provide the best objective reviews of the topics you cover. Thanks again for your great videos! I have come to appreciate your work and look forward to hearing from every Sunday.

[@joetaylor486]

Your Sunday video drops are a high point of my uchoob week. Thanks.

[@a10.]

42:34 *Slovakian Thanks for a great video, as always!

[@dezper4958]

only channel that makes spreadsheet interresting, great job as usual; keep up your marvelous jobs going

[@Rin-qj7zt]

i'm so excited to see you cover this topic.

[@Alex-Shulman]

Thanks as always. If that theoretical episode about Canadian defense spending/military ever becomes reality, I would be highly interested. Would also love to offer a local perspective on the politics surrounding the military here should that be something you are looking for.

[@brianjonker510]

I would be interested in the general outlook by canadian taxpayers towards the military. If I guessed a slight majority see defense spending as a lower priority than the NHS, regulation of big banks, and climate change prevention would I be correct?

[@Alex-Shulman]

Underfunding the Canadian military is one of the very few remaining bipartisan issues. Sure, opposition parties will give the current government snark for the results of it, but military funding is a very low priority for the public across the political spectrum, especially during our crushing cost of living crisis. The overall perspective tends to be "we don't need to do it because the US defends us", and that view is hard to shake. There's also various arguments, depending on one's perspective, about whether our methods of counting defense spending are either undercounting compared to NATO allies or overcounting, depending if someone wants to argue we are doing more or less then headline numbers. If I had to guess, we do some creative accounting in the personnel section regarding veteran's benefits, for it to represent such a large percentage of our spending when we don't have many personnel.@@brianjonker510

[@hungrymusicwolf]

@@brianjonker510"Maybe if we keep our own influence on climate change low enough then the climate won't be destroyed by the 10 000 tanks, 10s of carriers, who knows how many naval ships, and other vehicles China will build after seeing the opportunity with NATO." - Canada probably. Sometimes having the bigger gun gives you a better chance at peaceful cooperation and proper resolution than simply good intentions. Maybe when some of the more progressive leaning countries learn that we can actually start having some effect on threats to common prosperity like Climate Change or China. (excuse me for my rant I am a bit fed up with those people).

[@melindacadarette3447]

@@hungrymusicwolf DND is such a mess that until that's fixed I really don't think anything is going to improve much. East Coast at least is looking good with new ships being built or upgraded in Halifax. I can't really say much about anything else though.

[@positroll7870]

Before watching: GER data might be a bit misleading, as the GER 100 billion fund will be spent mostly in late 2023, 24+25. Thus GER will get very close to 2% in 23, and reach it in 24+25. Then we have elections and it's the job of the new gov to find more money for 26 and beyond. Which is bad for long term planning...

[@ricardoabh3242]

Germany seems very inefficient?

[@dieterdodel835]

@@ricardoabh3242 ...."Germany seems very inefficient?".....nope, we have just 💩politicians!

[@nielszeller1599]

Yeah. If we even get to 2% in one of these years. Scholz/SPD leaders are already backpedaling from his “Zeitenwende” announcments (2%/100bn). I wonder why the green party and the FDP don’t push him way harder on this. It is one of the few topics where both parties actually agree. Strack-Zimmermann, Nanni, Hofreiter could pressure the SPD into more action like a law with a military spending plan until 2030. Even the CDU (at least the west-german-part) with Kiesewetter co. would support it. That would be very good for the investment planning of the german/EU-defense industry.

[@rayan69pl]

It will be close, that's why, just yesterday, Germany withdrew the records that talked about spending 2% of GDP on the army? LOL. By the way, please state how much of these 100 billion euros Germany has spent in the year since the announcement of this program. You have lovely media in germany that your government's propaganda is given to you without even a bit of doubt and fact-checking :)

[@ravanpee1325]

@@ricardoabh3242 Not inefficient just unwilling, because our society hates the military after WW2

[@cheeseyoger]

The audio is phenomenal, well done on recording and editing

[@skywise001]

I enjoyed the overview and appreciated you drawing attention to the various facts. I always get something listening to you.

[@Zinras]

Small update, with Zelensky's visit in Denmark and the Netherlands: Both countries are the first to confirm F-16s to Ukraine, IIRC. Don't know how much the Dutch are sending but on our end it'll be a total of 19 F-16s, with 6 being delivered around new year, a further 8 in 2024 and the last 5 in 2025. Denmark currently has 43 F-16 planes, with about 30 in active use, so it's a decent chunk of the fleet going out. We're also currently training 70 Ukrainian pilots to fly said F-16s and I believe the Dutch mentioned using some of their planes over here to help with that task.

[@ulrikschackmeyer848]

Any idea of where and when they'll be training? I'd love to send them a couple of crates of Carlsberg. Just to make them feel welcome.

[@andersjjensen]

@@ulrikschackmeyer848 Flyvestation Skrydstrup is their primary home, but they'll probably also do some training missions from Flyvestation Aalborg, as the local army training grounds has some interesting terrain features not found in the (somewhat flatter) southern Jutland. I see and hear them here somewhat regularly. Last year Frømandskorpset (who're based at Flyvestation Aalborg) had helicopter insertion/extraction exercises under F-16 coverage. That was loud as fuck, but immense fun to watch.

[@karolmierny6256]

From 321 views to 16 thousand till i was done watching this episode. Quality speaks for itself. Thanks for your good work

[@anybodysouthern9213]

Thanks for including sources in your description. Underrated quality of a hero.

[@marcussassan]

You are the best. Glad to see you could keep your video schedule. Informative as always

[@LD-Orbs]

"In a lot of NATO countries I've joked before, the fastest way the Russians could demilitarize NATO would be to sit around and do nothing for 20 years." If Putin was as smart as he though he was, he would have taken this joke seriously. Even arranged for a co-dominion or the independence of the Donbas and Crimea, in exchange for a demilitarized Ukraine. A few soothing concessions now, in return for overwhelming dominance later. (And neutral Finland can stay neutral Finland. And that yummy German gas money can just keep on flowing in.) If Putin was REALLY into long-term Russian greatness, he would have cleaned up the Russian military, and arranged for a serious successor. But of course, he wasn't... and isn't. (I'll let the reader make the link with Xi and China.)

[@tristanridley1601]

He's old, and thinking about legacy. He can't accept that their best plan is to sit around 'til after he dies. He seemingly can't even accept that the Baltics are out of his reach.

[@andersjjensen]

He should just have stayed out of Crimea, Donbas, Georgia, Moldova and Armenia altogether, and we would have defunded the military by now... Uncle Sam would still have had a few carrier battle groups to keep China "receptive to diplomatic communication", but the rest of NATO would have turned into a glorified version of the Boy Scouts.