‘Hindutva didn’t work': Political analyst Sanjay Kumar on Modi, caste & religion in Lok Sabha 2024

#loksabhaelection2024 #electionresult
The Lok Sabha poll results stunned most spectators, with the BJP falling short of the majority mark despite its clarion call for over 400 seats. So what went wrong? How did the INDIA bloc parties engineer their revival?
Sanjay Kumar, director of Lokniti-CSDS, has been tracking and analysing Indian politics for decades. In this conversation with Newslaundry, Singh delved into the factors that led to the BJP’s decline, particularly in Uttar Pradesh.
The political analyst shared his insights on the caste dynamics at play in the elections, the Modi factor, consensus among people, and the triggers behind the BJP’s setback. “Prime Minister Modi’s magic is still intact…but there has been a decline in his ability to pull votes for the BJP.”
Kumar said the “narrative of Hindutva” didn’t work and that “overconfidence has killed the BJP”, while the opposition’s rhetoric to “save the constitution” struck a chord with the people. Kumar also explains what went so horribly wrong with the Exit Polls 2024.
Watch.
00:00 - 2:55 → Politics is serious business!
2:55 - 6:55 → The fall of the BJP
6:55 - 10:20 → Decline of the Modi factor
10:20 - 12:38 → Consolidation of the ‘Women’s Vote’
12:38 - 16:00 → Did ‘Welfare Politics’ pay for the BJP?
16:00 - 20:00 → Loyalty Bonus and Anxieties
20:00 - 21:33 → BJP’s loss in Faizabad
21:33 - 22:40 → Has UP rejected Hindutva?
22:40 - 26:30 → Popular election rhetorics of LS 2024
26:30 - 29:00 → Social coalitions in UP
29:00 - 33:20 → Regional variations of rural distress
33:20 - 38:35 → Dissecting the exit poll business
38:35 - 51:45 → Should seat projection end?
41:45 - 45:00 → Voter transparency
45:00 - 47:27 → Should exit polls be banned?
47:27 - 49:35 → How do Indians see the minority-majority question?
49:35 → Concluding thoughts
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[@skmrbc]

Not only overconfidence, arrogance, anti human, its anti national policies, and many more nonsenses. BJP is party which has all qualities to ban and destroy to zero. It has no single reason to survive. Time will emerge to reach the stage over the years ahead

[@indianmilitary]

You wish. Keep crying for another couple of decades 🤣🤣BJP is here to stay

[@metaverseia]

@@indianmilitary BJP will stay for just 5 more years

[@parmo_dharm]

​@@metaverseia let's see 🥲

[@Srike462]

😂😂😂Looks like someone is so bitter

[@brizhnev]

Bro you are frustrated .. The opposition tried everything this time but we will never give you the pleasure of removing modi 😊😊😊

[@truegunner7223]

BJP just managed to avoid a certain defeat by making sure there was no level playing field for a fair contest for this election . In effect, our electoral system has been gamed therefore needs be put under the scanner and accountability fixed at all levels.

[@mehulshakya1153]

Oh very true,if not for their control over institutions,they wouldve been brought to streets.

[@kushjindal2939]

You leftists will abuse democratic systems when you can't win elections seriously

[@personalemail9329]

Sounds like a copium justified by Losers, where was this "accountability" when your Nepo party was in charge? Whiny babies crying since they lost again despite plenty of disinformation and mud slinging so now they are blaming "the playing field". Pathetic.

[@DavidDLalsa]

Soros Losers. Some people fail to realise that BJP was not defeated.

[@tfriend9133]

Mayawati's BSP saved the BJP on 30 seats otherwise result would have been horrifying

[@vibeit8304]

ECI too.

[@gamesong6600]

Aisa koi set rule nhi hai ki jin Longo ne is bar bsp ko Diya agar wo bsp ko nhi dete to seedha INDIA ko de dete. Ulta bhi ho sakta hai wo seedha NDA me shift ho jaye. Bahut sure nhi hona chahiye apni analysis par.

[@poonamsingh67]

Horrifying for whom lol

[@tbs698]

Mayawati has always been supportive of BJP.

[@Vr90009]

What if bsp made alliance with bjp . In past also they’ve been in alliance.

[@Askanivlog]

Kulwinder kaur should get a chance to write a 300 word essay on Kangana 😂

[@asenlawall4637]

😂😂😂 Good one

[@vijaykalra811]

Good one))

[@santanodcosta3360]

Kulwinder Kaur should be awarded Padma Bushan for her bravery and justice on the spot.

[@LatikaPandey-qq7kb]

5 percent decline in PM's popularity is a gross understatement, isn't it?

[@mehulshakya1153]

Absolutely.the numbers say it all,although i wonder what criterias based on did he say that😂

[@nananou1687]

@@mehulshakya1153 he is speaking on the number as per the CSDS Survey itself. This in respect to support for him which has declined 5 per cent, but the number is actually higher

[@IndianArma]

Actually the bjps vote share increased over 2019, it is not as simple as the number of seats.

[@AjayKumar-re2zp]

Anchor trying to force Sanjay to say samething bad about BJP.,specially Modi ji.She has successfully exposed Congress party.

[@yusufpathan9714]

@@AjayKumar-re2zp can u specific wht she told?

[@vrikshk5658]

It has not worked in Tamilnadu from the beginning 😂 State with highest number of ancient temples in the country 😢😢😢

[@Furtv988]

Bcoz u r a commie....get out of ur commie mindset🙏

[@debopriyosanyal6510]

Manisha you are brilliant! Not enough praise is being given to vigilantes like you and Abhinandan.

[@sknisarulhaque7604]

Call a spade a spade Mr Sanjay. Still fearful? Charisma is intact but vote pulling capability is in decline. What type of logic is it?

[@gamesong6600]

There is no decline only anti vote consolidated. If opposition fails to repeat it we will have 2014-2019 all over again.

[@aritragupta4182]

That means that people like Modi but they realize that their point of contact for problems and grievances is their MP and not Modi. Earlier, people were voting for anyone that Modi asked them to. But now, they're starting to reject un-approachable, unhelpful, and arrogant candidates despite Modi blessing the latter.

[@valerianpereira1259]

Over Confidence.. AHANKARA; ARROGANCE; Religion; idea of abolishing Constitution..and lot more issues..

[@vivekjk6729]

It was congress overconfidence that they thought their taka tak scheme alone will help them win the election haha

[@Hehekk197]

@@vivekjk6729 400 paar??

[@kushjindal2939]

When did they talk about abolishing constitution? Areyou all leftists crazy? Congress is fooling you guys

[@jitkr1489]

nopes. it was just congress and its divisive politics. They used social media well and of course we have communal bigots like you!

[@brizhnev]

Actually it's the Congress who lost in a Big way whose Social Welfare Katakat which failed .. best example was Welfare scheme failed in Karnataka and state went to financial Crises which most of the people was aware in South India .. but in UP this was Successful..now muslim woman are standing in Congress HQ for 1Lakh money 💰🤑🤑 Congress Tried Hard and got only 99 but BJP alone got 240 is not a Small thing ... To retain 3rd time as PM is not a Joke ...

[@sachidanandjha6036]

Sanjay Kumar was telling in every TV debate that BJP will get about 300 seats. He and other pollsters were trying to create atmosphere in favour of BJP. They must accept that they were biased

[@daredevil30000]

He said 270.

[@saritamalik2804]

He is a bjp supporter I have been reading his articles in the newspaper for the laste7-8years he would never say anything against Modi or bjp.Its clear from the interview

[@sudhageoege4235]

Meeting as in 2014 & 2019 this time in 2024 before proposing Narendra Modi ' s name for PM post . 🤔There was no unanimous resolution within BJP party to give PM post to Narendra Modi. Modi , Shah & Nadda + Rajnath made the decision not the BJP parliamentary meeting.

[@jojicherian]

Sanjaykumar. he has absolutely no credibility. If he says that Modi has not lost his appeal and popularity he should give explanation for fall from 303 t0 240 instead to 370. If Dalits did not vote for Modi whose popularity has gone down. Blaming Dalits and Muslims for Modi's fall absolutely incredulous. I am not using nay any more extreme words. Even after this disaster Kumar is trying to cover up Modi by suggesting that he is popular. Incredible. Absolutely incredible

[@vivekjk6729]

it was congress taka tak scheme which made Modi loose popularity. Congress saw that free money scheme worked and helped them win karnataka and thought its that easy to fool all indians. There were so many minorities who flooded post office to open their bank accounts so that they can receive free money in their accounts lol

[@gamesong6600]

It's consolidation of anti vote. If it doesn't happen in future modi will reign supreme.

[@juPi05tEr]

@@gamesong6600 yep, its a anti Modi consilidation in UP, In South and East Modi votes have increased..

[@rajValath]

What he says is correct. A 4% decrease is not that big. It is still better than the 31% that Modi got in the first term. The whole thing changed when they made the alliance. Had India got another 10 seats, BJP would have had around 30% vote share. Absolutely no credibility is the language of Sanghis which they say even for world-renowned people. Sanjay frequently talks on liberal channels as well.

[@tellsparck]

CSDS is a well respected academic organization and Sanjay Kumar has to remain objective. Support has declined for Modi in places like Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Maharashtra, but it has not collapsed. BJP gained handsomely in Odisha and its alliances in Bihar and Andhra also did work well. The fight against religious bigotry and mixing religion with politics has got a boost, but has some way to go before it captures the central position again. Hoping that those leaders stay strong and stay the course.

[@visahelpline23]

It’s sad to see IPS and IAS officers work under these jokers

[@gamesong6600]

These officers are bigger jokers😊

[@brizhnev]

Bro no competition to Pappu Gandhi 😂😆😆😁

[@monkaZETTA]

​@@brizhnev tera poora khandaan khareed sakta hai vo 7 generations. He's more educated than all your family combined.

[@brizhnev]

@@monkaZETTA Ganta educated .... This morning I got up at Night - Rahul baba 😂😂😜

[@monkaZETTA]

@@brizhnev go and speak on that level and we'll see what happens of you.

[@demongodspov7816]

Practising hindutwa dont mean that, showing musclepower, and doing things that is innately wrong. If you do wrongs things you will suffer.

[@vibeit8304]

Isn't Hinduism more accurate than hindutva ?

[@MrAntonysimon]

Religionand politics is a heady cocktail.

[@at5112opsiarw]

Excellent interview Manisha... The electorate certainly seems wise as it has cut down a power hungry party to size without inflicting instability.... But when one looks at the comments made to this or any decent interview, the audience seems to have a blinkered view of things. I guess an average Indian voter has a more balanced outlook.

[@vibeit8304]

💯 they try hard to create a fake perspective around bjp and modi in comments. Indian Voters knew this reality and now they know it even more clearer.

[@umaananth3602]

Grandiose. Condescending Arrogance. and Not overconfidence

[@rubykhan...]

Thanks Manisha for such a great insightful interview ❤

[@shamikchoudhury]

He says bjp has increased vote in every demography😂😂😂 but still seats reduced i think extra 2ab did not vote for bjp

[@akhilesh4610]

Great interview! Very insightful! Thanks NL!

[@ankurbhattacharya]

It should be made mandatory to all exit pollsters to publish their criteria, methodology and their political affiliations, otherwise their numbers shall be declared invalid. Only such measures will serve the true purpose of an exit poll.

[@jdspowerpunch933]

Correct. Their videos of sample size interview has to be put out in public. It seems a scam 😊

[@user-gm6qy7nt5k]

These people cant even do their only assignment properly, which is the exit polls. And now after the results, they talk as if they know everything. If they already know the shortfalls of BJP, why was their exit polls result so off the mark.

[@SK-zn2xg]

They just sit in their office and make assumptions on the basis of what their masters tell them to do

[@omgomg6602]

Modi’s stance on Gujarat 2002 and his actions or lack of actions was the warning sign which the rest of India are feeling after 2 reigns of him ..the writing was on the wall and its his warped view of humanity that was on display in 2002 NOT Hindus Muslim. !!

[@pardeeptandon]

The integrity of Pollsters is doubtful.

[@shailendrasalve5203]

Thanks Manisha for exposing Sanjay ji😅

[@chefsanjaykak]

Fascinating analysis and precise findings.Thanks for explaining and breaking down the poll findings to us in simple terms.thanks Manisha and Newslaundry to bring this to us.🙏

[@poonamsingh67]

Neither of you heard the slogan “ jiski jitni sankhya bhari, uski utni hissedari” and that opposition leaders kept saying that they would increase the percentage of reservations for oppression castes/ tribes?

[@Paapi-Prakash]

Very good conversation, a lot of takeaways. Thanks ...it's a breath of fresh air to see an unbiased point of view

[@Mayasram]

Thank you for this. Was extremely fascinating and insightful. And thank you overall for the great work you folks do

[@ASeeker-9999]

It’s also been a humbling experience for people saying North south divide n calling UP people as uneducated Because they vote for BJP n unnecessarily over exaggerating Hindu radicalism!

[@sridhardon9588]

North South divide is created by Bjp

[@manjularamanujan3624]

Thank you for this presentation

[@mujahedmohiuddin1826]

After such big disastrous prediction with so much conviction whatever he says, I would always take him with pinch of salt.

[@saywhat1870]

@newslaundry you shouos have added the link to the article in the Hindu

[@VermaRajinder]

You have Got it Spot on !!!

[@aakankshaoswal9214]

Amazing interview really insightful and I love how simply and clearly sir answered his question as he has worked on ground unlike axis my india and other poll walas

[@varshachanda9784]

Hi Manisha, NL is a ray of hope for us. When the gentleman says that the party is not done badly but we are looking at what opposition has managed against all odds. I wish had brought up this point because it is so important for us to keep hope afloat 😅

[@devashishkumar9673]

Good report

[@sharipn8348]

Nice interview ✊

[@sheebaelizha4691]

Thanks

[@adityataur3295]

Very Interesting Conversation. ❤

[@peaceoflife6707]

Great work Newslaundry.. Keep it up❤

[@recipesandsongs8050]

Ration existed even before BJP. I still ahvr my ration card made in 1980 Now let's hope the opposition ruled states get what they voted for . Akhilesh yadav needs to do differently than what was done before BJP. So do other CMs. Pull up your socks. Over confidence will take away your seats.

[@MNAIRism]

Kudos to Sanjay Kumar! He makes the point that the BJP is not the party that lost the elections. 240 is a decent number for a coalition. And my own take is that leaders like Modi will know how to control the levers to check coalition partners who become troublesome, if they threaten to impale him!

[@varunvijaykumar92]

Waiting for Newsance.

[@naheedkhattak4305]

I like you a lot.... I only watch newslundry when you talk in a video 💕💕💕

[@Oceansta]

Good analysis

[@Novoteforbjp1]

❤

[@kvafsu225]

Lord Ram prevailed decisively.

[@AzharKaz]

Thoroughly confusing replies. He says Modi got more votes than in 2019. The popularity of Modi went down by 5 per cent. What is he trying to say.. Manisha is not able to get clarity from him. No point watching further

[@4yt158]

Has anyone noticed? Manisha blinks her eyes quite a lot more frequently compared to the other person.

[@XYZ-ui1gx]

Although CSDS vote% prediction went wrong...but trust me, he is the most honest ...real analysis 👍👍👍

[@ceva7727]

Even discussion...

[@cmmstudios]

Nice

[@AshrafAli-vr6el]

👍❤👍

[@MdFaizan_FZN]

Apart for Bureaucratic Exercise , Genoing 😂😂 ...love the way u sayed it...💐

[@jontyrods1038]

For your kind information article 370 is not fully abolished don't give wrong information.only b column is abolished to give way to adaani to buy the land in Kashmir .

[@nananou1687]

I think you meant Adani. Poor Advani catching strays :3

[@jontyrods1038]

@@nananou1687 print mistake it is adaani

[@nachiket2211]

Manisha, you're looking really gorgeous. ❤ And thumbs up to you. I'm a regular viewer for the last 5 years.👍

[@vinita6856]

GBU ALL JOURNALISTS WARRIORS 🙌 🤗 💓

[@khookeekeng]

India needs a revolution to end inequality 😂

[@krishnamurthy524]

You forget the fact that there was no level playing ground.

[@bijaytanty8434]

👍👍

[@melodiatrivandrum3583]

Your prediction proved wrong

[@user-xf7wq1bn2u]

How is vote share calculated? RLD contested 2 and won both .How does a statician calculate its national vote share?

[@abhishekjha8645]

Whats going on in the country is precisely whats wrong with the nation. Elections are over, results have come. Yet everyone is obsessing over what happened in exit polls - a non consequential exercise in first place. Neither govt nor opposition (the less said about alliance parties such as Cong, RJD etc, the better) is talking about real issues.

[@dhanisthsarawagi5395]

aape woh china wala case khatam ho gaya?

[@sheelababu5944]

Don't forget the opposition had their hands tied up behind during this polls. Inspite of all the agencies and the mainstream media on the side of bjp their seats came down considerably, so it is a defeat. If there was a level playing field the story would have been different.

[@soundar4270]

As long as BJP is in Power at center, Nobody has guts to give Opinion/Exit poll against BJP

[@rajeshmoza6504]

In some cases, people have blindly voted for BJP. Case in point is Delhi, see all six MPs were replaced by fresh candidates and they won. By voting for these candidates, they are actually voting for Modi ji, which means they are voting like a presidential voter.

[@gitanjalikhanduri314]

What was this interview all about? The exit poll of CSDS had gone all wrong.

[@avi2125]

How? I clearly remember Sanjay Kumar say before exit polls that BJP will get about 50 seats less than last time...pretty accurate...

[@sharipn8348]

CSDS got it right.. they didn't give numbers because it's an academic survey.. C voter and Axis my India got it wrong

[@kalyansingh6701]

Boss it’s not about strong leader, it’s about strong institution not the pangu institution

[@WanglembaElangbam-xj7yl]

Indian youths are tired of Ram mandir hindu politics and want secular policy and uphold constitution and resolve issues in Manipur one of our 7 jewel of North East India

[@ashoksircar]

When can we get the PDF version of the post poll survey ?

[@mushtaqbeg1652]

In 2019 pulwama disaster largely polarised the electorate in favor of bjp. However, in the recent election of 2024 the voters rightly punished it for its dismal performance nd its authoritarian style of governance!

[@deepikaroychoudhury]

What about media money muscle on their side

[@aritragupta4182]

Honestly speaking, the BJP had multiple factors working against it. 1. They ignored their own surveys & reports on candidates turning unpopular. 2. They are over-relying on Brand Modi. Genuinely popular state and local leaders like Vasundhara Raje and Shivraj Singh Chauhan are being sidelined-this has led to the supporters of the latter being disinterested in campaigning. 3. Holding the elections in that horrible heat almost certainly pissed many people off. 4. They have also over-relied on the "mergers & acquisitions" approach to balancing caste and other equations (i.e. bringing in people from other parties and striking alliances with caste-based parties). 5. They also managed to somewhat alienate the RSS with the latter sitting out the elections in many places.

[@cedricdias8764]

Wasn’t Sanjay Kumar one of those singing the ruling party’s tune?

[@ashishpandeysirmathsexpert3611]

Why not in Hindi...

[@rishacha]

This interview was beautifully conducted and the questions were amazing and well researched !! Y'all have gained a sub from my side

[@pravirsingh2235]

Yes sanjay right

[@arunachalasiva.]

11:05

[@geetikaa2874]

No matter what they are saying , the numbers tell the story . So whatever justification or stories he is sharing is not relatable . Anyhow , hoping for better 5 years now

[@sudhakarjain1299]

I did quit in the middle fir interviwer interfearing too much inbetween and irritating

[@manchikantimurty7375]

Surely those who spent Rs. 1800 crores on Ayodhya temple believed that when Rama occupies that magnificent abode, he will do so for good and preside over the Hindu utopia of Ram Rajya. But it did not happen at all.

[@SujoyBanerjee1907]

Prepetual loyalty VS Transactional politics.😂

[@nijoodubey3164]

i wish u would not interrupt the expert...pls

[@sentpol]

India is a land of different religion, caste, class, colour, facial construction, even hair hair quality😁😁, food habits, clothes, and so much more and to believe that India belongs to one majoratiarian, it will never be possible. People's mandate will ultimately triumph over any hegemonic political aspirations.

[@Rtry0000]

secular hindu log hi desh ke liye sabse badha khatra hai

[@patriciageorge5435]

Modi vote not that people voted but EVM voted

[@PokhrajRoy.]

“Mubarak no, Kuch toh opposition hua hain.” I mean, of course I have no faith whoever is in the establishment but maybe I’ll be proved wrong.

[@muazzamshaikh2049]

You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time; but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.

[@manchikantimurty7375]

During Ayodhya Ram Mandir Construction:::: 5000 houses, businesses were reportedly asked to vacate without commensurate compensation. For months the city was a construction site. BJP leadership had little time for UP's provincial hindutva. For many UPwallas (80% hindu), the Ayodhya temple wasn’t the key determining factor in voting decision. Hindutva does not satisfy anyone’s material, social, or even spiritual needs. Targeting Muslims neither creates jobs nor brings mental peace. UP people know a thing or two about keeping power in check.

[@sudhageoege4235]

Modi ( & Shah ) avoided sitting of BJP Party Parliamentary Meeting as in 2014 & 2019 this time in 2024 before proposing Narendra Modi ' s name for PM post . 🤔There was no unanimous resolution within BJP party to give PM post to Narendra Modi. Modi , Shah & Nadda + Rajnath made the decision not the BJP parliamentary meeting.

[@ayushmansingh5302]

BJP also started appeasing muslims by giving them disproportionate homes. They should give homes and welfare schemes to poor hindus.

[@ivyimogene]

Why listen to this commentator? Listen to Yogendra Yadav.

[@adilyousaf5388]

Such a good discussion. I have been a regular follower of NL since its initial days. So happy that it has grown well. I also recommend this channel for my students. Thank you for your work. Regards from Pakistan.

[@chandraprakashchourase8959]

Pollster like sanjay kumar were also batting for abki baar 400 par. They all are exposed now.

[@NeeleshBist]

Gujrat ka mein samjh sakta hun par Delhi walo Manoj Tiwari ? Or himanchal walo kanga raunat ? Itne paidal ho dimag se

[@sarojanidoddapaneni9734]

Everyone of us should learn to develop Healthy Relationships and Healthy Boundaries Discipline and order Discernment Dignity with Integrity Honesty Patience and understanding Adjustable Appreciate encouraged Motivate Strengthen Oneself Primarily with Respect Responsibility Resilience Relience Unconditional emotional support Focussed Committed attitude Essential primarily in one's own life and others in parents Carers friends and family members social media marketing and advertising in all educational institutions including universities in INDIA.

[@arunmaheshwari1040]

Why they preferred to remain blind to this movement.

[@taiyebbadr8912]

This guy is shady too! 😅

[@vikrantkkamble]

He gives 40% to BJP with margin of error is 2.8. That means 37.2 was his lower bound. BJP gets 36.6 percent. That is 3.4 percent points lower votes. Then he says the sample size was small about 19622 ( 36 responces per constituency). If sample size was small then why did you not correct your estimates for measurement errors? On the other platforms when people question about sample size, he says this sample was very large. Kaha se laate hain ye doglapan? That's why I call him fraud. Why Newslaundry gives platform to such people?

[@radiokarma]

And keeps saying his sample size is small so not sure if it is an excuse for incompetence if sample size is inadequate do not come up with estimate