If Biden steps aside, Dems can win if they do this: Historian | Vargas Reports

Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, says if Democrats persuade President Joe Biden to give up his reelection bid, Biden should resign the presidency to give Kamala Harris a better chance of being elected. He tells “Elizabeth Vargas Reports” that incumbency is a major key to victory.
#joe biden #allan lichtman #kamala harris
Anchor Elizabeth Vargas delivers the biggest stories, without bias or opinion. Watch "Elizabeth Vargas Reports" every weeknight at 6p/5C on NewsNation. #VargasReports
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[@kittyschooley]

Why doesn’t the media report on why Trump should leave the campaign?

[@davidking4838]

Remember this phrase - it is very handy. FOLLOW.......THE.......MONEY. That is what detectives do to solve crimes. That is what we have her. Trump = Money for the media. Simple as that. Country be damned. FOLLOW THE MONEY.

[@krisinsaigon]

Because the news is for things which are new, and people have being saying since 2015 the reasons Trump is unfit for office. And because the media want Trump to lose, rightly, and telling Biden to drop out is more likely to result in Trump not being president than telling Trump to drop out. And the media does still say why Trump is unfit

[@brianvivickers3712]

Good question

[@englandbengal]

They actually have. They dropped it because it’s absurd.

[@brianvivickers3712]

@@englandbengal : No, it’s the truth

[@c.golden8280]

When Mitch McConnell had his two spells where he froze up and couldn’t talk, nobody suggested that he step down.

[@Hunter-zf4rj]

lies. All republicans on X said he should step down.

[@mariacampos6043]

and not only froze 1 time, it happened several times. HE also was treated and mocked by D.T. spoke bad about his wife and sister-in-Law, and even went to kiss ass to D.T. What a flowed character.

[@lelly4870]

@@c.golden8280 oh plenty did

[@SenorJuan2023]

President is far more powerful than a Senator.

[@johnking7454]

Mitch didn't have the nuclear launch codes...

[@charlesdumas768]

People need to vote for Policies not the person.

[@Marty_Wanlass]

When going to war, the General is critical. We need a warrior right now.

[@tmeeks9398]

Democrats win in a landslide if they did that

[@Remember_when]

@@Marty_Wanlass Ain't trump. He did nothing when Iran attacked our base and 114 soldiers had brain damage. He did NOTHING when 2 of our soldiers died. He brought NO detained citizens home. trump is a loser.

[@ronreid1946]

@@Marty_Wanlasswar,what is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

[@JamesNames-yo3ou]

They need to vote for a candidate, not a criminal.

[@southstuart]

When are people going to get it? Polls are trash. Throw them in the garbage where they belong. Don’t even do polls anymore. They are a waist of time and money.

[@jamesstewart8377]

The fact that you spell waste like that I know you’re voting for Biden.

[@pamelafaucette3064]

@@southstuart That is how feel about polls. They're just one moment in time with a snippet of people polled. How accurate could they be in reality?

[@pamelafaucette3064]

@@jamesstewart8377 That's not fair. It could just be auto correct .

[@hojichaisfarsuperiortochai9309]

@@jamesstewart8377It was probably a typo.

[@usa26point2mileman]

waste

[@solitapichardo3298]

If Donald Trump win,don’t blame President Biden.Blame the American people who did not care

[@krisinsaigon]

No blame both

[@ERARepairs-gx7dx]

..El Salvador have Nayib Bukele........we have..j o e b i d e n.............

[@peaceintheworld761]

Blaming you for covering up all of Biden’s embarrassment . Jill, must be arrested for exploitation of an elderly. She will be remembered as the Deplorable wife . “Do as I say and not what I do “? No!

[@omaralnajm]

Trump supporters vote for America. Biden supporters vote for democrats party to save “democracy” as they say

[@lydiabarber8931]

Anybody in the White House is better than Trump,

[@Rainlove329]

YOU'RE WRONG IT'S NOT ABOUT BIDEN, IT'S ABOUT OVERTHROWING TRUMP, NOT AUTOCRACE

[@backspace4353]

stop yelling.

[@AlexavierMcConnor81]

Serious question: what is "Autocrace"? 🤨

[@kennethparker6590]

Your brainwashed.

[@Remember_when]

@@kennethparker6590 It's 'you're'

[@indranidasgupta8982]

Michelle Obama has said OVER AND OVER AGAIN THAT SHE’S NOT INTERESTED!! Stop this obsession already!!

[@User39.]

I know she has said that...but things change....never know...and what M.O. says means nothing....I'd guess 50% chance she will run

[@geraldrozen1797]

Teflon Don 2024 🎉😊

[@indranidasgupta8982]

@@User39. no absolutely not. You think this because you don’t know her. I’ve met her and I also know WHY she feels this way. ZERO CHANCE.

[@wataboutya9310]

Michelle is enjoying the life of riley. The woman is not that stupid.

[@User39.]

@@indranidasgupta8982 I hope you are right...I can't stand her..

[@gen-X-trader]

This is literally the only guy that makes predictions that I listen to. His track record is why. You notice how no one else likes to publish theirs. He does

[@Vevay1961]

All 9 guesses that he made, which is the equivalent of blind squirrel finding a nut results. 9 guesses....world's smallest sample size!

[@Mark-kq6ch]

My prediction, based on Lichtman's own system, is that Trump will win this cycle. 1, 4, 8-13 are all obviously false. Lichtman wants you to believe that Trump is not charismatic? What? That Biden has had no major foreign policy/military failures? Really? That Biden has no scandals? Seriously?

[@SteveM-gj2vy]

the only one he 'lost' was 2000, which was stolen by CRIMINAL SCOTUS . So he's really batting 1000

[@Hunter-zf4rj]

He has a bias and said Hillary was on track to defeat Trump in 2k16 and was wrong.

[@Mark-kq6ch]

@@Hunter-zf4rj No, he predicted Trump in 2016. But I do agree he has a bias this time. 1,4, 8-13 are all false. You can even argue 5 and 6 are false as well depending on how you calculate inflation. It's amazing he doesn't think there have been any scandals in the Biden administration, that there have been no major military failures, and that Trump is not charismatic. Obviously he is biased or has a blind spot. Why, I don't know.

[@MT-zy8el]

But anyone is better than narcissist Trump. So no, Biden’s admin is what I am voting for. Biden/Harris 💙💙💙💙💙💙

[@onetrueslave]

Yep! Same here. ❤🤍💙 * * * B I D E N ~ H A R R I S * * * 💙🤍❤

[@pokey5736]

This hysteria is extremely unbecoming. I am following this Professor and sticking with BIDEN/HARRIS 💙🇺🇲💙

[@martinramirezmi5457]

Fool 😂

[@josh0156]

He made a good point about his unpopular predictions that still turned out to be right.

[@GTKJNow]

He contradicts himself in the past. He's falsely predicted the Popular vote at least two times with Hillary and Trump and predicted near the election, he's a sorcerer who's false, I am done listening to his spin.

[@jillhansinger4095]

What about the American public? Where do we fit in this scenario? Don’t under estimate the American voters

[@SteveM-gj2vy]

bwhahaha. Id never trust the public . Pretty obvious by now that theres people who will choose no inflation over fascism.

[@pumpkinqueen3776]

I mean…the orange convicted felon was president once and has been a party candidate three times, I hold little hope in us as voters 🤷🏻‍♀️ less so being Chilean-American being all too familiar with American democracy’s underbelly.

[@mborok]

Kamala can also run on the administration’s accomplishments: “Here is what we did…” No other candidate can do that.

[@tony84.]

💯

[@arthurfoyt6727]

Millions of new illegals, high inflation, closing businesses, less liberty/freedom. I think their record is something they need to run from....

[@samhall3821]

Yeah! They gave us a choice: heat or eat. They've emboldened tyrants everywhere through weakness, mistakes, bad policies, and worse actions.

[@GTKJNow]

Who Giggles?

[@Cactus24844]

​@@GTKJNowso what as long as she dies the job right without being an insurrectionist or plan a coup!

[@innocent3163]

He is very knowledgeable guys, I am seeing you guys not taking him serious

[@boudica3356]

Don’t underestimate Biden or democracy. We will prevail.

[@pokey5736]

This Professor makes most sense of any pundit out there. It would behoove the media to follow him and tune out the garbage.

[@havable]

@@pokey5736 Check out Beau of the Fifth Column

[@chatnboy]

Especially since this professor…and his method has been doing elections…he is ten out of ten!The one hiccup is 2000…when bush really STOLE the election!He predicted Gore!

[@GTKJNow]

He's falsely predicted the Popular vote at least two times with Hillary and Trump and predicted near the election, he's a sorcerer who's false, I am done listening to his spin.

[@vietnam1566]

Mr. Lichtman, a way to go professor.

[@debussy843]

The clown predicted Biden would win and now is on damage control.

[@GTKJNow]

He's falsely predicted the Popular vote at least two times with Hillary and Trump and predicted near the election, he's a sorcerer who's false, I am done listening to his spin.

[@rockycola]

I flipped my WIG watching this guy.

[@moussiagilda]

Wondering if I can post on channels that aren't liberal. There, my posts have been getting through. Biden has to drop out.

[@greenscene5215]

He is ossified and inflexible...denying the truth everyone else can see.

[@dinismantas7265]

@@greenscene5215 well, he is old, but on the other hand his opponent is a convicted felon, a liar and now there is enough evidence to show that he really wants to be the ruling dictator of the USA. I think people are better of with Biden. If he really can't, Harris is there and ready.

[@FrickFrack]

Don't brush him aside. He's combed thru the facts.

[@emjay2045]

🙂‍↔️🤣😂

[@margaretmoore1608]

I never respond to polls, and I never talk politics. I work quietly behind the scene to support free and fair elections and democracy. I do not vote for felons and women haters.

[@DrSeuss-nv9hw]

You are exactly why these polls are garbage. Like you, I don't respond to polls or talk politics. But I'm very observant and have a long memory.

[@Mark-kq6ch]

Trump always outperforms polling. I don't vote for felons either, which is why I will vote for Trump.

[@Courageous321]

Interesting answer. Famous Harvard and Democrat attorney Alan Dershowitz says those charges and the convictions against Trump are bogus.

[@bruceli9094]

TRUMP2024! NO wars under Trump 3 wars under Biden, millions dead.

[@fukusamon4277]

Trump 2024

[@telix5000]

I'm having trouble ignoring the fact this man has hair like a Lego character.

[@darksword1]

Is that his real hair? looks like a wig to me.

[@aquaboneus]

Actually the man has no hair....

[@paulvonauth7254]

I was thinking the same,lol....and he's wrong!

[@chrisoneill3999]

One of the very few who called 2016 for Trump and 2020 for Biden.

[@NickDrinksWater]

Lego my ego!

[@rickwilliams5350]

I’m still riding with Biden. The media needs to stop clutching their pearls and chill

[@Juliaflo]

It is quite late for anyone else.

[@davidking4838]

The media wants Trump to win. It's all about the $$$$$$$$. Sad, but, hey, this is America and we've all been taught that money is what it's all about. Trump means four years of views. Biden means stability and that's boring.

[@Drew-be5dh]

That’s great you are but nobody wants Trump in office and Biden is very unpopular right now.

[@davidking4838]

I"m ridin' with you, that Cenk guy can walk.

[@Jukeboxster]

oh people are going to chill all right, they're going to stay at home and not vote. If that's the chill you want, then you'll get it.

[@carvana5702]

We cannot rely on polling.

[@arthurfoyt6727]

over 80 million voters want Biden to stay in the race ;-)

[@ricardolozano7079]

Social science research is a valid research method. It os not an exact science, but it is a reliable predictor if managed correctly

[@bradleywall2246]

What he says, makes a lot of sense. I hope the Democratic Party is listening.

[@pokey5736]

Totally agree. Do they even know this professor exists ? Someone who's on social media should get the word out to the Dem leaders- Schumer, Pelosi, Jefferies, Clyburn,etc..

[@Hunter-zf4rj]

They wont. Theyre too arrogant.

[@dadayahh1651]

Biden must not drop out

[@TheSalamanderWilds]

Actually, regardless of Kamala, it's dangerous for Biden to remain in office. Think about Biden having to make a 7 minute decision in the event a nuke is launched. Could he do it?

[@aol-youvegotmail364]

I just got an email from his campain saying that BIDEN IS RUNNING AND NOT GIVING UP!

[@walterpierce6061]

I hope he stays in the race.

[@aol-youvegotmail364]

@@walterpierce6061 I just got an email from the Biden campaign. BIDEN IS STAYING IN THE RACE! BIDEN 2024!

[@mrmustache8735]

@@walterpierce6061 I hope so too. Cause if he does he might as well hand it over to Trump right now

[@LadyDHV]

Even as a child, I did not trust polls on any topic. As a person on her 63rd time around the block, I believe it even more now.

[@marilynrowland5197]

We need to stick with the guy who brought us to the dance! That's Joe Biden! He has been a spectacular president! We need to rally around Joe, stick together, and vote BLUE up and down the ballot! This guy is right!

[@THE_WOAT]

So Trump is only leading Kamala by 2 points? LOL GTFO~!~ Where did they take this poll, in downtown Chicago?

[@DerBingle1]

Kamala Harris will slaughter Trump. If she becomes the candidate, Trump is finished and everyone knows it.

[@Migglesworth]

"So Trump is only leading Kamala by 2 points? " That's reality. Adults face reality. Trumpsters don't, but adults do. Trump is a lousy candidate. He offends lots of people for NO REASON other than his own immaturity. He didn't win 2016. Hillary lost 2016. Tons of Republicans ONLY pulled the lever for Trump to keep HER out of the White House. This year, tons of people will vote against Biden for the same reason. If we had had a DECENT candidate in 2016, Hillary would have been buried in a landslide, and Joe would never have gotten into the White House. As bad as Biden & Harris are, these polls should not even be CLOSE. The election should be a landslide, instead of being the nail biter that it currently is. But it IS, precisely because it's TRUMP, instead of a DECENT candidate.

[@hammill444]

Agreed. That’s utter nonsense. Harris would get absolutely demolished. She is deeply deeply unpopular.

[@tlk2348]

@@hammill444 totally agree.

[@danielstadden1149]

​@@hammill444 And Trump isn't 🤣😂🤣

[@Peeved100]

To be fair, I predicted trump's win in 2016 too. That didn't make me popular in my own household.

[@johnstone2029]

I predicted Trump would in in 2020, then he did and I wasn't popular when the system tried to hide it

[@MikeCee7]

@@johnstone2029 come on you know it’s not true. they were 60 court cases and there’s no evidence other than one 🍊 person, and one net work that says this. & they lost a >$780 million law suit. (in fact they settled out of court, because they knew they had no basis & blatantly lied)

[@MikeCee7]

@@johnstone2029 come on, you know it’s not true. they were 60 court cases and there’s no evidence other than one 🍊 person, & one 🦊 network that says this. & they lost a >$700 million . . .

[@MikeCee7]

come on, you know it’s not true. they were over 59+ court cases, and there’s no evidence other than one 🍊 person, & one 🦊 network that says this.

[@Peeved100]

@@johnstone2029 You guys are so darned cute, in your way.

[@chestermicek]

One more thing: Kamala Harris would make damn sure that DJ Trump goes to jail in the Colorado Supermax. How sweet would that be!

[@Coryclemmings]

I really think this is a reliable system if it has worked, without fail, 10 friggin times. Why can’t ppl just embrace what this man is saying??

[@mrjuvy49]

I do follow the leader and cash on this one, get odds too.

[@Coryclemmings]

@@mrjuvy49 what?

[@mrjuvy49]

Bet on the election in London and cash in..

[@Coryclemmings]

@@mrjuvy49 I haven’t heard of this man using his system for any other country. I, honestly, wouldn’t b surprised, tho, it working somewhere outside the U.S.

[@mrjuvy49]

Don't know about that, it is specifically geared to the American system . Happy 4th to you!

[@Kivancli79]

"If Biden’s not the nominee, he should resign the presidency" ... mind is blown 🤯

[@iscariot666]

It’s a ridiculous conclusion to draw.

[@rocknroll6396]

@@Kivancli79 ...dont underestimate the ego of "The Big Guy"

[@delorespeterson5954]

Of course it’s the next turn of events in this election. Buckle up.

[@daveh322]

Would Democrats really vote for a woman who has been lying about Joe's condition to them for so long?

[@les0101s]

He said that was Plan B. But if you think about, if Biden is too unhealthy to be our candidate, then isn't he too unhealthy to be President?

[@trailguy]

He’s become too full of himself. That always precedes a fall.

[@Tyler-vw9bh]

I've also noticed he no longer gives credit to Vladimir Keilis-Borok who was his partner in developing the keys system. According to Wikipedia, it was actually Keilis-Borok's idea and previous predictive models which served as the blueprint. He died in 2013 and now you only see them called "Lichtman's Keys to The White House" Obviously the keys are effective, but there is a lot of subjectivity in them and history doesnt repeat - only rhymes. A wise man once told me: keep yourself humble or life will do it for you. We will see how the keys do this go round

[@punkypinko2965]

For Biden, walking across a stage or riding a bike also precedes a fall.

[@duanekelly-fe5bt]

A lot of people have predicted the last 9-10, or even 10-10. I mean if you really look back, many of these elections were slam dunks. The problem with this guy is that he is an obvious Trump hater who's going to be 10-12 after this election and he'll just fade away.

[@cheesewithxbread]

​@@Tyler-vw9bhHe literally goes into the story of how the keys were developed, and that was his seismologist friend.

[@RevenantRising]

​@Tyler-vw9bh tbf to the guy, he often addresses this during his livestreams. He acknowledges there's subjectivity to it but he also can acknowledge he's no fool and is well equipped to follow the data and not the feeling.

[@Vevay1961]

He forgot to include a trigger key of whether a candidate has the cognitive ability to remember his own name.

[@victormelendez1074]

or remember basic truths about not sleeping with a porn star or cheating on all of his wives or being civilly liable for assault or credibly accused of multiple others or fined 90m for defamation, etc, etc....

[@jnewcomb]

It's never been a factor before. Reagan, FDR and Abraham Lincoln all got re-elected despite signs of cognitive decline.

[@Ericwvb2]

Or how the world "yuuuugest" Christian can't name his favorite Bible verse because it's a very "personal" thing and how he likes both Testaments equally. Watching him answer like a school boy giving a book report who never read the book was entertaining but now with the Supreme Court crowning him king it's dangerous for him to be in power again.

[@pumpkinqueen3776]

True. Agreed. I just wish there also was a trigger key regarding a candidate being a convicted felon and has incited a coup that would actually matter to his base 🤷🏻‍♀️

[@MADougfitness]

If he resigns that makes Kamala Harris president. So why bother with a resignation. Maybe the real reason why they want him to stay in office and get reelected is in hopes that they’ll eventually make Kamala Harris president without voting her in his president.

[@joshyoungforindiana]

We need conservatives all over the country to show up at the polls this November and re-elect President Donald J. Trump.

[@joewearsadroolbib7347]

Jack Kerkorian passed away.

[@juliahelland6488]

I absolutely 💯 agree with Allan Lichtman! Polls are as irrelevant as the electoral college. I think Biden should stay in the race!

[@nazur72]

If he resigns and makes Kamala Harris President (she keeps the delegates), they win. If he simply bows out of the race and there is a party fight, they lose. If he stays in and cannot complete a sentence, a thought, and keeps acting like he has Dementia, they lose.

[@stevenfriess9708]

@@joshyoungforindiana come on man…Trump doesn’t deserve the power of the president and the other guy has dementia…RFK is the best option

[@csi4law]

Thank you for saying that about the polls. Polls haven't been right since 2016- big races or small.

[@chrisholiday3273]

Wrong. Polls accurately predicted Clinton would win the national popular vote by 3% and she won by 2%. Polls only predict the popular vote margin not the electoral college margin.

[@Mark-kq6ch]

Yeah, they usually underestimate republicans and they always underestimate Trump.

[@Cherrylipgloss2025]

they weren't right then either

[@vincenttiene]

Similar to Mitch McConnell, just because Biden was buffering, I would throw away my computer.

[@chrisruef3201]

She's free of scandal 😅😅😅 California girl here knows her history - 😅😅😅

[@cheesewithxbread]

That's different from national scandal, which is what his keys are based on. Trump was filled with scandal in NYC before winning

[@les0101s]

She's freer of scandal than Trump is.

[@paulg6527]

A National scandal.

[@kesilame2590]

​@@les0101swillie brown disagrees with you.

[@hangdogit]

@@les0101sLow bar but OK.

[@DrakePatterson]

“She is free of scandal.” Downtown Willy Brown would like a word.

[@ricomajestic]

Still way less than the affairs Trump has had.

[@cheesewithxbread]

Local scandal is not the same as national scandal. That's what his keys are based on. Trump has local scandal before winning.

[@happynowfarms]

Ask the innocent guy she left on Deathrow. Would never vote for anyone like that. She got to go.

[@buckfiden946]

@@ricomajesticnah, Kamala-toe has been passed around the block more than a few times.

[@SafetySpooon]

@@buckfiden946 Your sexism aside, hypocrisy is the mainstay of Rightwingers. Uluz.

[@lovesgucci1]

I called every election since 2004 & was right, maybe I should reevaluate my career choices!

[@deelakasirdeeedwards7945]

🎉🎉🎉

[@ricomajestic]

Prove it!

[@BizznessBox]

you don't have the media and family connections to make it into a career

[@VerticalStrafes]

Who’s winning this time

[@paulg6527]

That's only 4 presidents.

[@kreed4]

This guy sticks to his keys like Terrence Howard sticks to his math equations.

[@Mark-kq6ch]

According to him, Trump is not charismatic, there is no scandal surrounding Biden, there have been no major foreign policy failures during Biden's presidency, and at least one major foreign policy achievement. Riiiight....

[@user-yt3so4pk7u]

Professor, You should contact the White House. A local PBS station. Your publisher. The publicity could help Biden Harris Harris has held elective office as Attorney General & as Senator of CA.

[@tcng9808]

It reminds me of Vince Lombardi’s famous quote “Winning is not everything, it is the only thing” Good luck to everyone in this world.

[@SteveM-gj2vy]

that quote has been wrong for 50 years. Go look it up

[@andrecosta3939]

It’s Biden with Donny’s hair.😮

[@lindamckibben2828]

Historian Heather Cox Richardson writes: Gish Gallop, "It's a rhetorical technique in which someone throws out a fast string of lies,non-sequiturs, and specious arguments, so many that it is impossible to fact-check or rebut them in the amount of time it took to say them. Trying to figure out how to respond makes the opponent look confused, because they don't know where to start grappling with the flood that just happened. It's a form of gaslighting". For me as a voter there was no debate Trump eliminated it, wasting all of our time. Trump's and Biden's answers to questions should be written and if not a real answer it is not read.

[@mikewilliams6025]

How could we possibly know that Jill wasn't whispering in Joe's ear if the answers are written?

[@debbyrabold6069]

​@@mikewilliams6025 with the candidates sitting at tables on the stage at the debate & writing their answers instead of saying them. Trump would have trouble with writing his answers because all he does is bluster, project, & lie. At least they shut off his mic this time.

[@noahfranks984]

I love Heather Cox Richardson!

[@user-tbkn316]

Did you watch the debate??? After 12 days back from overseas, 7 days of rest & prep at camp David, that you can't see the biggest scandal of all, that president Biden is incapable of doing the job. I'm pissed. I feel like they have been gaslighting us and as an intelligent human being, I am done putting up with the fear mongering. Until the Democrats get the old ass elites who are running the party into the ground is gone... I'll be a NEVER DEMOCRAT #votethirdparty.

[@codecodigo5461]

Even an AI Bot would find it impossible to respond to the barrage of lies Trump generates. Even an AI Bot would look bewildered and confused.

[@toothlessseer3153]

The *MAIN KEY* _(not in your list)_ is, the candidate should be alive.

[@toothlessseer3153]

@@rogerdebougainville889 Don't need to be smart to see that a dead man will not win.

[@stevenmartin7159]

He also shouldn't be a corrupt psychopath

[@toothlessseer3153]

@@stevenmartin7159 FYI About half the US presidents (and other world leaders) are corrupt psychopaths. _They just do a better job of hiding it_

[@mikewilliams6025]

ROASTED!

[@mikewilliams6025]

@@stevenmartin7159 Well now you're just piling on Biden.

[@mr.peabody6670]

80+ million of us will STILL be voting for President Biden.

[@bayly1977]

Wrong, his voter turn out will be way way down

[@bball4lif78]

Keep telling yourself that, but you'll be in tears Nov. 6th.

[@skyboy1956]

or 40 million will be voting for Biden twice . . .

[@englandbengal]

For the love of the country please don’t

[@Marty_Wanlass]

Wrong, 80% of Democrats want him to drop out. NONE of us want Trump to win. NONE. But we need a warrior to carry this war forward.

[@robertwoods3873]

Resign the Presidency, let Harris be the caretaker (and first woman) President now, and have an open convention to choose the nominee. It makes perfect sense.

[@DairyAirGunners]

People should not be voting for a man. It isn't about the man, it's about what the man represents and what their party represents. Biden and the Democrats represent and defend democracy, Trump and the Republicans represents fascism and tearing down our democratic system. Which one do you want? I will vote BLUE across the board.

[@nunuvurbiz6905]

Better look up the definition of Fascism...

[@DairyAirGunners]

@@nunuvurbiz6905: Fascism: Right-wing, authoritarian, nationalist ideology

[@user-wp9yi1qs3x]

Exactly

[@DairyAirGunners]

@@nunuvurbiz6905 Fascism: an authoritarian and nationalistic right-wing system of government

[@pumpkinqueen3776]

But that’s exactly the point. Hard blue voters will vote blue regardless of who is on the dem ticket. I know I will (and I’m not a Biden fan, I am far to his left). The issue is swing voters, and I’m not sure (pure honesty, I’m not sure what I think yet) if Biden is the right choice for those voters, in those States (electoral college, let’s not forget) or if this media prosecution will make it more digestible for THEM to vote perhaps for someone else. What also scares me is, as a candidate, Biden will be subject to extreme exposure and scrutiny, even if he wins, I’m not sure he’ll make it to January, let alone November, as president, such exposure could result in the 25th amendment being invoked…prior to the internet era I’d say 100% keep him on the ticket but now? Maybe it is better that he govern quietly from the oval, someone else get the exposure a campaign entails, and finish his term in a dignified manner (not saying that would be fair to this man, none of this is fair to him and his record as a public servant, but there’s an election on the line; and sure, we can argue that we vote for policy and party and not the one person, again, hard voters and established bases do not matter, it’s the undecided voter in those handful of states).

[@NickDrinksWater]

The polls don't mean much, we'll see what happens in november

[@tuantrieu4421]

I think so

[@controllerbrain]

It'll be Trump vs Harris

[@SIoyvenheaven1T800m101]

@@controllerbrainTrump wins either way.

[@SIoyvenheaven1T800m101]

Trump wins.

[@Mark-kq6ch]

Lichtman's own system points to a clear Trump victory. 1,4, 8-13 are all obviously false yet he won't admit it. Wonder why that is. You can also make an argument that a couple other are false too.

[@alfredoordaz4908]

I hope Biden can continue running and everything be explained. But. With Biden or without Biden. What is absolutely imperative is to VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS. We CAN'T ALLOW TRUMP TO RETURN. We can't vote for a third party candidate either. That is risky. The American people need to get united and VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRAT TICKET, VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS. IT'S THE ONLY WAY TO SAVE THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. PLEASE, VOTE BLUE. 🙏🗳💙🇺🇸

[@jimmyprather2946]

Your comment makes sense to me

[@Danimal1577]

Have you noticed that a number of these swing states are kinda crappy, yet they decide the most powerful and influential job on the planet? 🤔🤷🏻‍♂️

[@Dognacity]

You can see how strong supporters, even Allan Lichtman, are pivoting toward Biden stepping down. That’s good.

[@dtna]

Where did he get his wig? Walmart??? 😅

[@bkdmd5352]

It is disenfranching the voters if the democrats go with someone other than Joe Biden. The media and his inner circle have told us he is sharp as a tack for 4 years. He needs to be on the ballot. Anyone can have a bad night at a debate.

[@andrewkathe3471]

And now the media and low level wh staffers are pissed off they were lied to. The problem isn't a bad debate. The problem is that the whole country knows they were lied to.

[@hyperinfinity2029]

There was no real primary. In fact we were denied a real primary. We’ve already been disenfranchised. At least with Biden gone we have a fighting chance.

[@Heccordero2]

True I've never seen the media blow up one debate like now there over exaggerating.

[@bowarrow9229]

Unless he drops out Trump will be President get over it

[@Heccordero2]

@@bowarrow9229 The convicted felon will lose again.

[@jdovma1]

I respect the track record of Professor Lichtman. I respect his criteria for predicting outcomes. I don't believe this cycle fits into anything he studied to come up with it. "Strange things are afoot at the Circle K." I'm usually someone who looks to history as prologue. I think in these times, reading the field in front of you is way more important than trusting what past tells you. For instance, his incumbency key has never been tested by a languishing president stepping down and an unfavorable VP stepping in. That may not fulfill the power that actual incumbency brings because she wasn't the president people voted for, or the president who made the decisions. This is poorly conceived, professor. Look at the field in front of you. Not the analytics page on your clip board.

[@ghostridersinthesky21]

Very excellent take. Thanks for your analysis

[@eastbaystreet1242]

Well said.

[@olika9076]

You've got more than a point there🤔

[@peterermish3017]

Well said.

[@Mark-kq6ch]

Actually, put aside Biden's mental decline and Trump is still the clear winner according to Lichtman's keys. 1, 4, 8-13 are all obviously false. Lichtman claims that: Trump is not charismatic, there is no major scandal surrounding Biden, there have been no major foreign policy failures during Biden's presidency, and at least one major foreign policy achievement. REALLY? The real question is....for what purpose is Lichtman sacrificing his own integrity in order to predict Biden as the winner? I hope they are paying him A LOT of money......

[@craigsteeves4295]

This makes sense. So It is doubtful that it will happen.

[@samaleks4390]

I like how he’s just adjusting his own rules arbitrarily and citing his track record of success to mask the fact that he has no idea what the hell is going on, just like the rest of us.

[@user-wh6yx4kr7z]

The media must focus on “trump continues lie”.

[@giovannituber2827]

Coping bad?

[@chaddolly]

So does biden

[@Jukeboxster]

To what end? His voters know that he lies and they don't care. There is zero chance of Biden siphoning off any Trump voters, zero. And pointing out Trump's lies doesn't energize undecideds or independents to vote for Biden, it doesn't work that way. I've always thought that focusing on Trump lying is a poor strategy because it's what people expect of him. Biden has to succeed on his own merits.

[@yogibear6363]

Why didn't they poll if turmp was too old? They make more ad revenue attacking Democrats.

[@adambakelar1798]

Polls are a snippet in time of the opinons of people who answer their phone to unknown callers and people who contribute to a candidate online. Thats why they don't work anymore.

[@catherinerobson5482]

If polls were right Hillary would have been President, deafening to corporate media hosts possibly not to us voters.

[@thehalloweenheavymetalmusicwar]

Exactly, which means Trump leading doesn't mean anything, if they didn't for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and for Michael Dukakis in 1988 when he was beating George WH. Bush by 15 points prior to the 1988 election when pundits also said Dukakis will blow Bush out of the water, next thing you know election night, George WH. Bush beats Dukakis by a landslide in 1988, only because Republicans after Reagan were only 3 keys negative (false). If Ronald Reagan left with 6 or more keys not in his party's favor, then the polls would have been accurate on election night in Michael Dukakis beating George HW. Bush. Right now Biden is only down 2 keys with 4 hanging, 2 leaning true and 2 leaning false. If he gets Gaza deal finished, Biden solidifies his re-election by turning foreign policy success key true, despite what polls and pundits suggest.

[@olika9076]

Hm, actually the majority of the voters did vote for Hillary, which would've made her the leader of the country in every modern and sane democracy. The 🍊🤡 was elected by that obscure institution and hence only was elected "Resident" (of the WH) but never really President (of the country)...🤷🏼‍♂️

[@Vevay1961]

No... SOME polls were right. Just need to rely on accurate polls, not the media spin bs of inaccurate polls and idiot professors using their microscopic sample sized guess to peddle books.

[@DrSeuss-nv9hw]

Trump is such a weak candidate that you could run a corpse against him and 45 would lose. Do people think we have forgotten what happened from 2017 to 2021? I don't respond to polls. I'm not loud about politics. But I'm the voter that elects politicians (or doesn't).

[@Mark-kq6ch]

@@DrSeuss-nv9hw If you look at the right track/wrong track poll, the "right track" during Trump's presidency was higher than during any other presidency since Clinton. Your analysis is incorrect.

[@Secretname807]

I think answer is fairly simple. The Dems would love for Biden to drop out, but they're not thrilled about Kamala taking over. So open it up to anyone to run, and let the delegates sort out who wins. If it's Kamala, fine. If not, then maybe it's someone else. It's the least worst idea right now.

[@daveh322]

The people voted for Joe in the primary. He won. Now you want to go against what the Dem voters voted for and have the party choose their candidate for them? Yay Democracy!!🙄

[@Dteshome85]

Which makes an even stronger case for cnn's decision to keep rfk jr out of the debate stage criminal Biden is the presumptive nominee there is no guarantee he will appear on enough states 270 electoral voted to win given he isn't the official nominee Cnn really screwed over rfk jr and should be sued for this This has collusion with the biden campaign written all.over it

[@SenorJuan2023]

Newsom has no chance against Trump, top midwestern governors don't have enough national name recognition. Biden's campaign funds can only go to Kamala.

[@jovazquez6102]

That would be suicide. A contested convention overturns two keys.

[@mercedeswolf9473]

The dems just announced,Joe Biden stays in the race.

[@shawmeehan7201]

It’s hilarious that he says the polls are essentially irrelevant, and she throws up a graphic on polls. 😂

[@mikemallimo9286]

Historically we all know 3rd parties don’t do well, however as much as these 2 are disliked now is a great opportunity to displace the 2 major parties

[@justsayin...2784]

If I really thought Kamala Harris was electable, Biden's health wouldn't be as much of an issue in the upcoming election.

[@FoodiesVacations]

She has already been elected... She has served for 4 years as a VP. And really at this point it doesn't matter. Biden is not going to bow out. Especially if he is listening to the people who put in office and got him nominated in the first place.. the first time. Dems need to be careful... the wrong move against Harris will split the ticket...big time!

[@alfzay734]

It is not a choice between Harris and Biden, but Biden vs. Trump. If Democrat loses the election, Kamala Harris would be irrelevant.

[@tonyitts]

Kamala Harris would make an excellent President.

[@carolynstuart5901]

@@tonyittsI do too. I’m just afraid she won’t be able to fight fire with fire and she’s not popular enough. She needs to give some fiery campaign speeches.

[@billieg826]

Kamala Harris is electable in spite of the racism of the Maga Base.

[@user-lb3xg2jf1x]

The Democrats have several people that could easily defeat trump. . . .they don't need to nominate Michelle.

[@emjay2045]

He forgot two MAJOR keys : RACISM & SEXISM

[@Cherrylipgloss2025]

it's not a key but it's under scandal keys and riots

[@debussy843]

Those ism's are valid. Trump 2024.

[@micheletravis9057]

@emjay2045 That is very true. Sad, but true.

[@micheletravis9057]

@@debussy843 is project 2025 true? or false?

[@debussy843]

@@micheletravis9057 You believed Russian collusion🙄. This is just the 2024 version of "Russian collusion"

[@derekflegg2510]

@kittyschooley 4 days ago Why doesn’t the media report on why Trump should leave the campaign?

[@29mirstudio]

History doesn’t lie. Look into the past to predict the future. Facts and science are the backbone of a prediction

[@Cherrylipgloss2025]

many misogynists have tried and failed to be dictators here already! The US government won't let itself be overthrown by anybody!

[@Cherrylipgloss2025]

these supreme court justices are getting exposed for helping conald and epstein get away with decades of sex trafficking women and girls.

[@zachriley7132]

✔️✔️✔️💯

[@liamporter6243]

"Can win" is very different from "will win".

[@drexplordinaire]

what happens to your key if your candidate is dead???

[@aol-youvegotmail364]

Well just because Trump is SUPER OBESE doesn't mean he's dead. But His younger brother & first wife died already so you never know...

[@ollyolly1221]

No man no key

[@elenajoseph3594]

😂😂😅

[@Mongo299]

@@ollyolly1221 😂😂😂😂😂😂

[@ghostridersinthesky21]

@@ollyolly1221No woman No cry

[@alisadeghi5439]

for the past 9 months, I have been saying Biden should step aside and Democrats should elect M. Obama to run. She will defeat Trump. Kamala Harris has no charisma.

[@romelcevallos1026]

I belived you man 👏👏👏👏👍

[@peregrineprude2046]

These 13 keys are overly reductive and do not cover the full range of considerations. However, if they lead the Democrats to believe Harris will defeat Trump, then by all means, keep relying on them!

[@cheesewithxbread]

The keys were developed with a seismologist in politics. It's been around since the 80's with a 100% accuracy rate. The betting market for presidential election wins have a 96% accuracy rate. Both lean toward Biden. Both leaned toward Trump before he won as well.

[@joakos1122]

Betting markets are with Trump at the moment, unfortunately for our democracy

[@HWCWTD]

What is less reductive to your mind? 13 criteria is a lot.

[@thejbp6509]

It's worked literally 10/10 times so your delusional for not buying into them

[@psongman9536]

Right now, anybody can beat Trump, he simply does not have the votes, regardless of what the polls are saying. He has added few voters, since he incited the riot on January 6th, indicted 4 times on 88 charges. Lost three NY lawsuits in a row to the tune of 83 and 354 million dollars and convicted on 34 felony charges. Haley even got thousands of votes in those last GOP primaries and she dropped out months ago. Finally, people are not going to switch over and vote for Donald, because frankly he is disliked and despised!

[@ringoftruth3697]

Kamala checks the yellow school bus question.

[@mrjuvy49]

" Don' t release grades at Penn: ...GRump

[@hangdogit]

Trump checks the Yellow Peril Kung-Flu box.

[@arthurmall4688]

Kamala eats more curries. South Indian Origin.

[@TomMcKee33]

Mental gymnastics!

[@keithcarpenter3218]

And that folks is why I don’t wear a hairpiece.

[@alizagugenheim8723]

So ridiculous!! The leys are so subjective. You can go either way on so many of them. Btw he claims that hes 10 for 10 because Gore beat Bush in the common vote but by that reasoning he lost the trump clinton prediction because Hillary won in the common as well. Bottom line hes a clown!!

[@excession30]

No, you've got it wrong. If the recount in Florida had been permitted, Al Gore would've won that state and its electoral votes. That's why he says his prediction was correct.

[@erikzoe1]

As I understand it, the reason he says the 2000 election was stolen is because of the doubt and controversy over whether the Florida votes were properly counted. Trump becoming president in 2016 despite losing the popular vote was in accordance with the rules of the (dysfunctional) electoral system. Now, how his keys are able to take account of what happened in 2016, I don't know, and would be interested to know.

[@hammill444]

Sorry, but Lichtmans analysis keys have never accounted for a unique situation like this. His metrics won’t work this time

[@richstrobel]

Well said!

[@voxpopuli5663]

You are correct

[@memehistorian9551]

Heard the same things in 2020 with covid raging and all that

[@lenblack1462]

Wrong.

[@cheesewithxbread]

He's predicted every election since the 80's with a 100% accuracy rate. It's not Lichtman, but the keys themselves. The betting market for presidential elections have a 96% accuracy rate and it's leaning Biden

[@user-mj8gm8jv4l]

Kamala can not win with only her laughter😂

[@qake2021]

😯 I used professor's 13 keys on Biden vs Trump and I got Biden with 6 vs Trump with 7. ✌️😁😁😁😁✌️

[@DrBeauHightower]

Only two elections in the last ten have been uncertain. 2000 and 2016. Dude is batting 50 percent. Completely unimpressive

[@gbuddy]

2020 was certain, that Trump won.

[@paulg6527]

2000, Gore did win the electoral college. But because of a Supreme Court ruling on what happened in FL, the votes went to Bush instead, and 2016 wasn't uncertain. A lot of people, including Harvard professor Amy Chua, predicted that Trump would win.

[@mrjuvy49]

Read his book , I did Trump will be 50%

[@MikeCee7]

Exactly, was no great prediction feat. Take this to Vegas, I predict the New York Jets, will NOT win the Super Bowl in 2025, Nor 2026, Nor 2027, Nor 2028, Nor 2029, Nor 2030 etc etc.

[@mrjuvy49]

Come to my town. Vegas and take the odds, be my guest.

[@waynegrabert6839]

Lictman would have gotten 2016 wrong and 2000 right if we elected by popular vote (and if Jeb didn't have 90,000 Democrats improperly removed from the rolls in Florida in 2000).

[@Jasper7182009]

Right! The Supreme Court in 2000 gave Bush the moron the presidency. and there’s no way Dr Lichman’s system could have predicted that. Or as former defense secretary Rumsfeld would say: the unknowable unknowable.

[@baraxor]

We, we don't. Change the Constitution (good luck).

[@waynegrabert6839]

@@baraxor It was an observation about his model.

[@pumpkinqueen3776]

So true. So sad. Again, this “perfect democracy” showing it is anything but from its very basis.

[@terryhutchinson9094]

This guy is just in love with his 'predictive' formula. It isn't really predictive of anything . . . he constructed it based on what seemed to have happened in modern elections, a contrivance.

[@jonfklein]

Saying the Kamala Harris would check off the "incumbency key" is a stretch.

[@matthewharhai4039]

No thanks for Harris!

[@danmulholland1634]

Yeah no

[@solomonhill8773]

I love reading the comments from the Trump supporters... just think 🤔 President Harris...😅

[@worldobserver3515]

The country can't have another Democrat administration.

[@joeelliott2157]

MAGA is thinking it's time to look into Harris's birth certificate. Remember, a certificate of live birth is not good enough. It has to be a birth certificate. I might mention that I was born in California, I don't have a birth certificate, I just have a certificate of live birth, like Obama. Damm, it looks like I can't run for president. And I am not even black.

[@camillecloninger9660]

Oh please! The Word Salad Queen!

[@brreezy421]

Your own party hates her. She was the first to drop out of the 2020 primary because she was abysmal

[@englandbengal]

She’s a joke.

[@douglasmatthews2334]

C O P E BREATH DEEP THAT COPIUM! 🤣

[@elck3]

That's one heck of a wig.

[@patricklonski]

There it is the smell of desperation coming through my computer screen again. Lichtman is in major damage control on his own appearing everywhere just to save his own silly system.

[@bruceli9094]

He's trying to Will his predictions into reality lol

[@bball4lif78]

He is a partisan political hack.

[@jackienuchols9425]

My money is still on ole Joe over the Psycho.He's doing a great job RIGHT NOW not some hypothetical and by the way Trump was and is a disaster.

[@m.w.976]

And the #ConvictedFelon has told everyone that he is ready to be worse, much worse, if he gets back into the White House. His goons are lining up.

[@Courageous321]

The economy was better then. Just go to the food store. And the situation with the open border is shameful. Re the Trump convictions… Famous Harvard and Democrat attorney Alan Dershowitz says those charges and the convictions against Trump are bogus.

[@rexxx777]

What was the disaster during trumps presidency?

[@fenderblue9485]

COVID, he is responsible for over 500K deaths, loss of jobs, homes and closed down the country! Do you need more examples 🤡?

[@nunuvurbiz6905]

Yes Joe is doing great for the Criminals and Americas Foes, they just love him.

[@jlshoem]

I always follow Allan Lichtman's keys.

[@jasonself783]

Only one check point missing in his predictions, is the sitting incumbent president’s mental capacity compromised? This can be argued that it should be considered now because the voters have never been asked to consider this before

[@dwandascott3947]

So our primary votes should be… thrown in the trash

[@pumpkinqueen3776]

I mean…they always are unless you live in a swing state 🤷🏻‍♀️

[@casienwhey]

Predicting 9 of the 10 last elections is hardly impressive. The only two that would have been hard to predict were 2000 and 2016. So, anyone with a decent degree of judgement could have made the right call on all the others and flipped a coin on those two.

[@ricomajestic]

He got all 10 actually!

[@cheesewithxbread]

Actually, he predicted every one of them. 2000 was a stolen election, literally. Bc Gore won Florida, but the court gave it to Bush.

[@TheRealCaptainGold]

He called 2016 correctly and 2000 on a technicality (he was "wrong" because the SCOTUS chose Bush in 2000). Most people have also not predicted 9/10 elections. Hardly impressive to maybe a buffoon, but pretty solid to anyone with a decent level of knowledge.

[@jojothetasmaniansassmonkey8866]

@@TheRealCaptainGold it is impressive. But his system has never been tested when accounting for circumstances similar to those at play in this election. None of the last 10 general elections have had a candidate appear as senile, and lacking in mental acuity as Biden does now.

[@TheRealCaptainGold]

@@jojothetasmaniansassmonkey8866 It wasn’t tested against a black horse candidate like Trump back in 2016. It was right. Biden being old isn’t anything serious when compared to the lunacy that was 2016. Nor compared to 2020’s election in the middle of a once in a century pandemic. The model predicted both correctly.

[@mattm1725]

But my keys…MAH KEYS!!!!

[@BicycleFunk]

I agree with the Lego man.

[@sarahaltizer2285]

For a second I thought that was Bo Burnham in the thumbnail lol

[@darwel007]

A dingbat can get unusually lucky.

[@duanekelly-fe5bt]

I'm 9-10 also, while missing on the Clinton, Bush and Perot election, however I'm just a lowly community college hack. The only reason I predicted my guy Trump would lose in the last election was the obvious voting law changes and the laptop coverup.I'm going to predict that the Republicans flip the West Virginia senate seat, I mean, see how how smart I am.

[@jimanaz3318]

9.5 times out of 10? I don't know if that qualifies as luck.

[@HWCWTD]

He actually got all 10. The Supreme Court intervened in 2000, making the wrong decision.

[@jojothetasmaniansassmonkey8866]

​@@jimanaz3318 None of the last 10 elections have had a candidate appear as senile as Biden does now. None of the last 10 have had a candidate who struggled to form sentences in a manor similar to how Biden struggles to do so now. His system has never had to account for anything like this.

[@SafetySpooon]

Yeah, trump did it in 2016.

[@jasonjames4254]

I don't get it. There is no reason to resign or drop out if the party will rally behind and nominate Harris anyways. Just pacify voters concerns about Biden that Harris WILL be president if he can't make it through his term. And the odds of him making it through a second term are slim. Get Harris out there campaigning as if she's running for President, because for all practical purposes she is!

[@chaserohwedder8852]

Yea it’s probably because in reality she polls even lower than Biden. They’re just lying when they try to claim she’s viable in any way.

[@davejones732]

I first found Lyn on a TV show Put A Little Color In Your Life. fantastic! Thank You Lyn and Eric! and Happy 248th Fourth of July!

[@ayilafola7156]

These are insane days or period. We difficult not to be anxious about what will be at the end of this roller-coaster madness

[@freedomforall5071]

Best BIDEN stays and move on because In few weeks this be History!

[@smokingbrush2498]

The issue is whether Biden can actually move at all

[@RPSartre01]

True unless he continues with the same behavior and can't even campaign. Remember - there is one more debate to go.

[@TheShiatsuKitty]

Nah, the crocodile bask of mega donors and power brokers are dragging this stubborn old wildebeest under the water's surface within the next couple weeks, just watch. Biden is finished. As one editorial pointed out, Americans by a large majority already doubted Biden's cognitive fitness BEFORE the debate, and what was seen confirmed their suspicions, and cannot be unseen.