NFL Betting Model in Excel: Predict Spread, Moneyline & Totals!

[@excel_ladz]

G'day, lads! Please let me know if you have any questions/suggestions below 🔥 If you'd like to download the file and become a member on Patreon, here's the link: www.patreon.com/posts/excel-ladz-2024-111333965

[@arthur_g8393]

Another W video as always

[@joeyminichiello410]

Just a quick thing, in the fixtures table, it isnt the away and home team, its the winner and loser, the @ symbol signifies if the away team won

[@excel_ladz]

Hi mate, thanks for watching 👍 In the Fixtures Data worksheet, the games that have already been played are sorted into Winner and Loser. For the games that haven't been sorted yet, they're sorted into Away and Home. Because the table I built in the dashboard is only interested in games that haven't already been played, it ignores the instances where the winning team is sorted into the Away column. I hope that helps lad.

[@JoséC-n1c]

Good video. But i think it was nice to have a video explaining from zero. like to get the live data and updated. Because some times the power query gives erros and it is difficult to mantain the live data working specially if there are a lot of tables..

[@excel_ladz]

Thanks for watching mate, I appreciate the support. I get your point, unfortunately I just can’t add it in to videos like this. Setting up a power query is a different process for different versions of Excel as well as different computers. I build the models on a MacBook, so for most people the way I build it is pretty much useless. And of course, I want the first 10 minutes of the video to be as engaging as possible. I hope you understand lad. There’s a video on my channel about creating a Power Query using a MacBook, I suggest giving that a watch and seeing if that helps 😉

[@bradmayfield8480]

Love the video. Could you possibly show the passing and rushing stats per team/game as well with the projected score?

[@excel_ladz]

Thanks for watching mate 🔥 Yes, it is. In the LET function, I calculate the x_touchdowns for each team by adding three separate stats: expected passing touchdowns, expected rushing touchdowns and expected 'other' touchdowns. For example, this is the formula for the expected passing touchdowns for the home team within the LET function: XLOOKUP(D3,'Team Ratings'!$A$2:$A$33,'Team Ratings'!$N$2:$N$33)*XLOOKUP(D1,'Team Ratings'!$A$2:$A$33,'Team Ratings'!$O$2:$O$33)*'Team Ratings'!$N$35

[@bradmayfield8480]

@@excel_ladz man I'm trying to get the formula right for passing yards for each team. I added Passing YDS ATT and Pass Yds DEF just like the other stats but I'm not able to get a final number for predicted passing yards. Would like to do the same for rushing!!! it might be a great idea for another video with this model. Passing and rushing yds for each team. Possibly run simulation on those stats as well. BTW this model is bad A$$. I have built a few myself for different sports with different function/formulas and this is hands down the best one I've seen on youtube.

[@KhushalTrehan-g9y]

Hey lad! Nice video of yours here. Really helped me. I just wanted to ask that have you been testing this model lately or simply what's the record of wins-loss with this? This is because I'm trying to build a prediction model using Python so it might be useful for me to compare the results. Thank you. Also if possible can you upload more of such analysis/ model/prediction videos for other sports, I really enjoy these?

[@DFSInsights]

Results using this model since week 4: Week 4- ML 56.25%, Spread 62.5%, and O/U 56.3%. Week 5- ML 57.14%, Spread 50%, O/U 42.86%, Week 6- ML 78.57%, Spread 64.29%, O/U 50%, Week 7- ML 73.33%, Spread 46.67%, O/U 46.67%, Week 8- ML 62.5%, Spread 62.5%, O/U 31.25%, Week 9- ML 87.5%, Spread 43.75%, O/U 43.75%. This is the percentage for the moneyline (ML), spread and over/under (O/U) being accurate. Overall ML 69.22%, Spread 54.95%, O/U 45.14%. When using this keep in mind this accounts for the last 12 games, currently it still considering 2 games from last season and this doesn't help the accuracy, as well as this does not account for injuries, such that Tua from Dolphins got hurt and was out for 4 weeks, so now that he returns the dolphins potential to win will be greater than what the math will show since the 4 weeks he was out the Dolphins stats were abysmal. O/U seems to favor the under which is tough since the NFL is trying to get more teams to score more points so be cautious betting on this. ML has been close to 70% and this can provide some good ROI if you have some football knowledge to go along with the betting. Using this model and the UFC model he produced have made some of my own tweaks with knowledge of the sports and some data points on the way and have seen good ROI.

[@KhushalTrehan-g9y]

@@DFSInsights Ohh thanks a lot mate. That's the comprehensive backtest I was looking for, though I've been doing it for the past 2 weeks, the results are decent especially the spreads. I'll look to make some tweaks. Thanks a lot again mate.

[@jjlawtonproductions9425]

You should do a short 30 second reel of this video (or an old one with the outcomes at the end) and put it on different socials.

[@excel_ladz]

Thanks for watching lads 🙏 Yeah that’s a good idea. I can’t say I haven’t thought about that before, but I’ve obviously not done it yet. Perhaps I give it a try and see how it goes, what’s the worst that can happen? Thanks again guys 👍

[@pareiomar]

if i subscribe to yout patreon would i have to do whats in this video? or does it come prepared and ready to use for the current 2024-25 nfl season and refresh daily?

[@excel_ladz]

Hello, mate! By subscribing to the Patreon, you can download the model exactly as it is built in this video. No work required 👍 I highly recommend joining the community 🔥

[@pareiomar]

@@excel_ladz done! Thank you

[@Officialmilli1]

Has anyone used this model this season? If so how many units are you up?

[@DidierCobos]

I am from Mexico, can I buy the Excel templates?

[@SebastianUcedo-rv3ce]

Hello brother, I was watching your videos, I haven't understood when you speak because I don't understand English but I was surprised by how you handle Excel. I have a football prediction calculator similar to the one you have already made, but I have a question about how to know when a match can be 0-0 Fulltime, since the % of 0-0 is always above the average although the data tells you that they will win 2-0 for example. That is my doubt, I would love for you to make the table and for Excel to tell you if, according to the statistics, it is likely that the match will end 0-0 (I play live and I want to avoid matches that end 0-0) greetings from Paraguay

[@kingbrylegyneabid5153]

Hi, just used the same exact formula, exp. Scores is reaching a very high number... is there any fix or leave it as is?

[@V8_200_Landcruiser]

Awesome! Can you do one for the NRL?

[@KankundiyeSpeciose-lo8xp]

Can this model make long term ROI profit if I use it? Is it possible to bolt this model in Google spreadsheet, excel 2010 and 2016?

[@excel_ladz]

Hello, lad! I can't guarantee that the model has a has long term ROI, as I haven't backtested the model using historical odds. It's definitely possible to build the model in Excel 2010 and 2016, as I've done it! It just involves changing all the XLOOKUP functions to VLOOKUP, as well as creating a new worksheet to do all the commands I've put in the LET function. I hope that helps lad 👍

[@KankundiyeSpeciose-lo8xp]

@@excel_ladz How and Why should I hope to buy your model and use it for Business profitable purposes and make it as investment as I am not a math wise? Let me know what you can help.

[@KankundiyeSpeciose-lo8xp]

Thanks lads! I would like to ask why should I buy your models if I am not a math wise and I want to make betting investment as value bet strategy using your model?

[@excel_ladz]

@@KankundiyeSpeciose-lo8xpDownloading the model may help with your understanding of the maths behind the model 👍 We have a community on Discord that would be great for you to ask questions on😊

[@RylanDuffy-e4b]

can you make a college basketball and football model?

[@giovannibraschi-nu5ct]

does it update automatically?

[@excel_ladz]

Hello, lad! When you connect it to the Official NFL Website using a Power Query, it does update automatically; assuming you select the "Refresh All" icon in the 'Data' tab 👍

[@bobnicholson6350]

NFL model has date and number problems RE: last 3 games etc pls check all fornmats

[@excel_ladz]

Hi Bob, thanks for watching 🙏 I’ve got a few queries about the date over the last couple days. I built the model using a dd/mm/yy format rather than the American version. I hope that helps mate. If not, send me an email or message over Patreon 👍

[@Hume247]

Bro what's the point of your video if you are not even explaining the first step of importing data to the spreadhseet ? I am stuck there. I am not even able to watch further part of the video.

[@excel_ladz]

G'day, lad! Unfortunately, the Power Query process is different for not only your version of Excel but also the computer you are working on. I build the models using Excel for Mac, which has a very different process to Windows computers (the majority). As a result, I don't include the portion of the video where I bring the data in, as for 95% of users it'd be a waste of time. If you're struggling with creating a Power Query, I suggest watching some tutorials on KZbin 👍

[@rcdny]

too bad it didnt work for the giants vs browns

[@ThomasLa36]

Don't give the impression that it's free. $23.50 a month !!! I'll pass Thank you.

[@excel_ladz]

Hi mate, apologies if that wasn’t clear to you 😢 Of course, you can build the model for free by watching this video. Thanks for watching 🙏