NFL Week 14 NFL Line Moves | Friday December 6th Market Rundown | The Simple Handicap Podcast

[@Stephan-o8v]

Good Luck Adam. Appreciate the work you put in. Hope the foot is feeling better.

[@ryanoconnor6753]

Where’s the pinned comment 👀 Grateful for your knowledge 🙏🏽

[@spc9987]

Adam - GB has outgained DET in yds per rush and pass in both matchups. DET has 4 4th down touchdowns in these games. Do you view that as winning formula for DET or potential regression in playoff matchup?

[@bradyfennell1106]

That 4th TD conversion rate is unbelievable. They broke Green Bay’s spirit by doing that. It’s demoralizing to hold them for 3 downs and falls short on the last try.

[@arthurfonzarelli9828]

the Lions had almost 100 yards of offense in the game last night. The Packers had two touchdown drives of 30 yards only. The Lions looked like the MUCH better team driving ball up and down the field. This is their style and they play it brilliantly

[@spc9987]

@@arthurfonzarelli9828I agree it is their style/formula just posing the question. The typical box score analysis of both games would indicate in favor of GB but I think DET formula works

[@raspicks]

Hey Sean, good question. Detroit converting fourth downs seems more likely to continue than Green Bay continuing to score off short fields post turnover/possession change. I don't know if it is a negative in the possible rematch. What I do wonder is how long Detroit can continue to play at this level of buy in and motivation on the defensive side. Early game and late game were impressive as hell. I know this staff gets the team up for every game but it was the first time all season I was thinking to myself watching the game...this feels like they are just hanging on here. In play market gave them no respect either. It was GB money constantly coming in when trailing and at half. Might be a different way of saying this is probably an over team going forward, especially in close games.

[@TheBlunder99]

@spc9987 Detroit got very lucky on the 4th down tds, they almost always caught a linebacker who wasn't aware. I doubt seriously that will happen again in a rematch it will be a well prepared occurance as this game would have a very different score had green bay gotten even 1 stop in the redzone on 4th down. Detroit very lucky to come away with the win here.

[@lukewhoolery8934]

Sooner or later one of those ridiculous 4 th down attempts will cost them the season

[@TheBlunder99]

Ya, they will lose doing that when it counts for sure.

[@bradyfennell1106]

Agreed when he plays a tougher D like Philly.

[@bradyfennell1106]

Mike McDaniel does the same thing on 4th down and gets spanked most of the time when doing so. The Dolphin O is not near the caliber of the Lions.

[@lychees100]

For the algorithm

[@HENNYC999]

No props?

[@bradyfennell1106]

Great question as the Props have been paying the bills the last few weeks! 👍

[@bradyfennell1106]

The Giants, Jags & Raiders all have 2 wins. It would be interesting to fade them ATS the next 5 weeks as they battle for the coveted #1 pick in the April draft. Is there a decent ROI in doing so? We shall see!

[@raspicks]

Not sure you’d find much of an edge blanket fading them like that.

[@dullatron]

If you can do a good job of identifying teams that have quit on the season - maybe teams like the Jags, Raiders, Browns (after the Steelers rivalry game), Saints, Giants, Cowboys, Panthers - that would be a better way to go. Lame duck coaches, crappy team dynamics, so injured they’re clearly on a different talent level (NYG), etc. Football is an emotional game and if you’re not bought in, it’s going to show. Players aren’t motivated by getting top draft picks but by self preservation.

[@michaelpcampbell5748]

Excellent summary.

[@bradyfennell1106]

I’m with you. Let’s see how this works. There is an ole saying “never bet GOOD money on BAD teams”. Not only are these teams bad they might be held back by top management who wants that #1 draft pick! Former Dolphins HC, Brian Flores allegedly was asked to tank late season games when he was the coach of the Dolphins so they could move up to #1 in the Joe Burroughs draft sweepstakes.

[@HENNYC999]

@@raspicks edge blanket is the name of my new band! 🤘