NFL Week 15 Picks and Predictions 2024 with Adam Chernoff | The Simple Handicap Podcast

[@raspicks]

Added New England Arizona Over 46. Back to back to back weeks against tough under defenses for Arizona. Twice against the Seahawks improving defense (which is a brutal matchup for Kyler) and the Vikings on the road has led to three straight AZ under-ish performances. Expect them to show better against a much softer NE defense which they can run on. Pats just a decent over partner with Maye, first game for him indoors. Think this closes 47/47.5.

[@robertbickerstaff599]

Adam has the best content out there. Thanks for all your hard work to pull this together

[@curtkann6991]

Adam - Love your breakdowns...listen every morning while walking the dog!

[@raspicks]

Thanks for tuning in Curt.

[@nnnbrun]

Great insight, great presentation Adam. Thanks for doing this.

[@MichaelRankin-j2s]

Awsome work Adam. Much appreciated

[@raspicks]

Appreciate it, thanks for watching!

[@dknox00]

This is probably my favorite week thus far. Adam highlighted a couple diamonds that are good betting points

[@johnskees3435]

Good job with your pics and your breakdowns. I’ll listen to your podcast first time. I’ve listened to your KZbin channel. I subscribed good job. Good work.

[@raspicks]

Appreciate you checking out the podcast.

[@leonardwelch4784]

Love the show

[@raspicks]

Thanks for watching.

[@hagert]

I like betting on bad teams, 6 leg SGP's and watching this show a week after it comes out. Thanks!

[@bradyfennell1106]

😳

[@bradyfennell1106]

I’m in with you on the Texan pick, Adam. For me it’s a two unit play. All the attention is going on how great Tua is playing but he can’t get it done without help from the Dolphin D who is MIA. The Dolphin safeties are beyond SOFT, Poyer is a step too slow and Javon Holland is avoiding contact due to injury concerns. He has checked out making a business decision to go after a big free agency contract in the off season.

[@andrewwilson8551]

I empathise with you Adam over these grammar criticisms. I suspect it's similar to English folk struggling to understand my Scottish accent and dialect. You can't please everyone. Keep up the good work 👏

[@raspicks]

Thanks for watching. I just watched Iona’s new video with Ewan. They played 9 and were talking about the difference between west and east Scottish accents. Was an eye opener! The pitch, tone, everything haha. Very relatable.

[@lancehilt7536]

I enjoy the humor around grammar and pronunciation, so I will add one. In the states we pronounce “composite” with the accent on the second syllable. To end on a positive note, this is my favorite sports show. Keep up the great work!

[@raspicks]

Calm-POH-sit?

[@fiferfamily]

Come-PAW-sit

[@JimmieKrack]

Love all you do. An observation. 4 of the 7 teams on the right have mobile QBs. The other 3 have injured QBs that can't throw.

[@joespano689]

Adam, love the work and appreciate it very much. You mentioned that you like Commanders as a teaser leg, what other teams do you like for teaser legs? Thanks!

[@raspicks]

Hey Joe, talked about it at the end. I’d break the rule of teasers and pair with buffalo.

[@joespano689]

Great stuff. Really appreciate the advice. Great work as always.

[@gbh3916]

Love the show. When you look at strength of schedule that a team has played, do you adjust for where they were ranked at the time or where they rank now? I can see benefits to both views as where a team ranks now uses more data, but where they ranked at the time uses more relevant facts (eg who was available)

[@raspicks]

Good question. It's both, season long, then previous 4 games blended. Lots of effort to remove noise from the past schedule as well. Matchups, injuries, game state, things like that can make SOS noisy.

[@wombatbets3739]

Really cannot wrap my head around the colts pick. EPA last 3 weeks is just night and day between the 2 teams, especially defensively. Especially at home. Seems weird that Colts would pass more considering Broncos strength is pass d.

[@nickstaykov]

Also, I opened up the Ras app on my phone and it’s blank. Nothing ever opens. I was thinking about joining the service. What’s going on with that?

[@raspicks]

The app was shut down in February. You can find everything at raspicks.com

[@nickstaykov]

Do you ever pick any parlays or teasers?

[@bradyfennell1106]

He came out with Washington & Buffalo, two quality teams. Let’s see what happens!

[@GK-wx6xo]

Eating a lot of juice with these bets

[@RichDeRidder-n2y]

I couldn't catch the live show because of work. I love the information and listen almost daily. Indy defense disrupting offenses??? Pats and Jets scored plenty against Indy and Denver offense is A LOT better than those two. I amnotsure I can agree with Indy+4

[@raspicks]

Since Buckner and some DB's returned in Week 8, Colts are 11th in epa/play allowed overall.

[@economicsmadeeasy5266]

@@raspicks Dont look at any Bo Nix stats since week 11...

[@Lucianoz28]

The Dolphins need this win like they need Blood, last away warm weather games.

[@bradyfennell1106]

I agree. It’s crunch time, however the Dolphin safety play is beyond soft. Poyer is a step too slow and Javon Holland has made a business decision and has shut down. He refuses to tackle due to injury concerns as he is in his.contract year and looking to make the big score in free agency. As Adam so often says the Texan Offense should get what it wants out there on Sunday afternoon. All the attention is on Tua, but he can’t get it done without some help from the defense. I’m a lifetime Dolfan and hope to be wrong on this one.

[@RyanxLocke]

Adam, thanks for the great show! Sorry to ask this 10M times but which is better between -2.5 at -120 or -3 at +100 in your opinion? I am a little bit newer and don't know which is better, sorry it is probably a more basic question for you.

[@johnskees3435]

Myself I’ve been to pay extra and take the three just a piece of mind and not have to worry about landing on three and losing

[@scottyrabbit]

-2.5-120 is better. However -3-100 is better than -2.5-125

[@RyanxLocke]

@@scottyrabbit Thank you! Really appreciate it

[@lychees100]

For the algorithm

[@HENNYC999]

I have a great graphics kid. Someone who would be grateful for the opportunity

[@GK-wx6xo]

If the Eagles have only covered the spread in the 1st quarter twice then how can they be front runners? They came from behind against cincy and washibgton and carolina and thats just off the top of my head....

[@raspicks]

A great defense, and being the 2nd best team in the 2nd quarter onward. Only 33% of snaps this season have been trailing despite the slow starts. Script wears off, team reacts to to game state, gets a lead and expands it. Haven't seen them playing from behind in the 4Q since Week 4 vs the Bucs without Brown, Smith and two starting OL. CLE: 0-0 1Q, 10-10 HT (with blocked FG TD against end 2Q) NYG: 0-0 1Q, 14-3 HT (28-3 final) CIN: 0-0 1Q, 14-10 HT (37-17 final) JAX: 7-0 1Q, 16-0 HT (28-23 final - weird one late) DAL: 7-3 1Q, 14-6 HT (34-6 final) WSH: 0-7 1Q, 3-7 HT (26-18 final) LAR: 3-7 1Q, 13-7 HT (37-20 final) BAL: 0-9 1Q, 14-12 HT (24-19 final) CAR: 0-3 1Q, 14-10 HT (22-16 final)

[@Lucianoz28]

Aren't the Texans in a Sandwich Spot here thinking ahead to the Chiefs?

[@raspicks]

They are off a bye.

[@Lucianoz28]

I forgot bout dat......​@@raspicks

[@SeanNaftel]

Really a negative Kupp & Puka playing together against SF? What…

[@raspicks]

Negative for SF.

[@stevieweeds]

Tough week? Seems like most of these games you have no lean on any side or total

[@raspicks]

Expected for this time of the season. Tough time to bet right now.

[@johnromano542]

Hey but you have Tim Hortons

[@raspicks]

We used to have it. Don't even recognize the place anymore since the sale. They're making pizzas and all kinds of chicken wraps, it's out of hand. I miss the days growing up when it was a "bake shop". Just not the same anymore.

[@christopherbyers3264]

I can get 7 point teasers at -120

[@raspicks]

Good bet to make

[@bradyfennell1106]

SF looked so bad last night. One of the most prolific offenses has gone into sleep mode. I feel bad for their fans who had Super Bowl expectations this year. A definite downer for sure.

[@economicsmadeeasy5266]

Bro is lighting money on fire betting the colts. Broncos 10-3 against the spread. Better oline better d line better qb all broncos

[@economicsmadeeasy5266]

The colts get credit for recent performance but not the broncos, they played easy teams. Meanwhile the colts have played who recently?

[@raspicks]

Indy has played 3 of the 7 best teams in the league: Vikings, Bills, Lions and the Texans.

[@economicsmadeeasy5266]

@ the Texans are not top 7.

[@raspicks]

@economicsmadeeasy5266 I agree, I did not include them in the top 7.

[@pstick9934]

3RD CONSECUTIVE ROAD GAME FOR BEARS , MINNY EASY

[@Lucianoz28]

The Titans Suck So Bad, the Lost to the Jags at Home.

[@raspicks]

Plenty of motivation and buy in this week against such a familiar opponent with what is at stake for the HC.

[@DavidAlexander-j5v]

My 9 yr old niece could cover better on the rams wrs than the bills.

[@raspicks]

Bills played a lot of excellent coverage all game. Some incredible throws and catches made.

[@tfrancis5885]

49ers lose. These picks just keep getting worse & worse in the 2nd half of the season.

[@raspicks]

It's tough out there right now.

[@247vancity]

I’m only here to fade Adam 💰💰 💰

[@raspicks]

Enjoy Week 15!

[@bradyfennell1106]

😳😂

[@Nick-mx4vk]

Might do the same. Have you seen his record on VSIN’s follow the money? Tracker says he’s like 40-55

[@raspicks]

@ Feel free to do as you wish. That “tracker” includes a record made up of about 20-25 of picks which were not picks of mine and not games I bet on. Also counted a bunch week one 20/1+ props as single full game losses.

[@247vancity]

@@raspicks Adam keep up the great work. Your videos are full of information. I was just busting balls. Everyone should tune and get your intel along with anyone else’s information & make their own decisions. I applaud you for the time you put into this 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

[@nickstaykov]

Do you ever pick any parlays or teasers?

[@raspicks]

Teasers are tough to find, don't often play parlays if ever.