Learning from failure: Russia's new strategy in Ukraine, 31MAR2022

Russia's decision to focus on Donbas shows that they are making rational choices from their failures in Ukraine. And that is a good sign, because the alternative would be for Russia to be irrational about it. It indicates that Putin has an understanding of the realities on the battlefield.

[@expandedhistory]

How this channel isn’t bigger blows my mind. The amount of knowledge and information that you provide is unbelievable. Thank you.

[@anderspuck]

Thanks. I'm glad you find it useful.

[@edwardwhitebeardnewkatt2726]

Well he isn't some pretty lady having a fake laugh on some shitty anime show....

[@davidb8539]

The most popular war commentator in youtube is a Russian hand puppet... I think Anders needs a gimmick of some kind

[@Tfaonc]

@@davidb8539 who's that please? Anders is my only subscribed current events War Commentator.

[@davidb8539]

@@Tfaonc Binkov’s Battlegrounds

[@samoldfield5220]

Untested assumptions that cause the entire analysis to fall apart: 1. The plan was more or less what you would have done (ie Russia expected a quick war) 2. The goals are whatever you think they are (conquest of Ukraine and installation of a puppet government?) Break either of these assumptions and Intelligence failure becomes self referencing - we know Russia's intelligence failed because they expected a quick and total victory because Russia's intelligence failed. The alternative hypothesis the Russia expected and planned for a long war with initially large losses which would degrade Ukrainian capital stocks and potentially deplete western stockpiles while leaving Russian reserves more or less in tact requires only the following assumption: 1. Russia anticipated western intervention up to and including a no-fly zone. And it explains why Putin elected to attack at the end of February (the start of mud season) instead of the end of May (the start of the traditional campaign season). It's the only theory I know that explains this decision, since it relies on the Russian plan assuming the war would not be over by late August.

[@miguelservetus9534]

Interesting idea but isn’t it quite an assumption that western resources will be exhausted. The west has lots of resources and can gear up. When you throw in the economic advantage to the west in the Covid damaged world economy, the West seems unlikely to run out of resources. As long as Ukraine is willing to fight, the west will likely keep up the flow.

[@samoldfield5220]

@@miguelservetus9534 So that is a whole thing tho. Right now the west has donated a bunch of stuff out of stockpiles, while also expanding their own forces which is additional pressure on stockpiles. "Gearing up" in this contexts means mobilizing production for war, which is horrendously expensive and not at all "good" for economies already wracked by inflation. So what you're saying there is that the west, particularly the english speaking world which has been the vast bulk of donations so far, will reorganize their economies for the benefit of Ukraine. Even assuming they can, and even further would want to, that takes time, and there are a whole load of geostrategic factors in there about how far they can even go, not to mention that the new eastern bloc will naturally have a response to it. This war is already very expensive against already stressed budgets at the same time those budgets are needed elsewhere to mitigate the ongoing effects of covid and the ever escalating trade war with China. Zalensky acts like we're going to reorganize the global economy for his benefit just because he asks. I don't think that's going to happen and I certainly don't think it should.

[@miguelservetus9534]

@@samoldfield5220 Thanks. You raise valid points and concerns. It is a human dilemma of what price to pay to stop a bully. Individually, we saw it at school, work, and international relations. Again, thanks for your thoughts.

[@maxjohnson8659]

@@samoldfield5220 lol they printed trillions when they overreacted to covid. $30 billion for Ukraine is a drop in the bucket. my country alone (Canada) borrowed 350 billion dollars during covid.

[@samoldfield5220]

@@maxjohnson8659 $30billion is 150% of Canada's entire defence budget.

[@ludmilascoles1195]

I think we forget the the Ukrainians have the Russian playbook. So far I would not call it a Partisan war, what you are seeing is an example of excellent small unit tactics. The same is now going on in the East though over a wider area, rapid reaction small units, small holding parties, shoot and scoot arty, constant harassment fire, arty ambushes. There has yet to be a major engagement of a UA tank unit. It will be interesting to see what will happen iwhen an UA battle group makes a show.

[@gairionysten3188]

Russia can redefine goals all day long, but Ukrainians have goals of their own. It's not goign to be easy for russians to end this war, unless they just leave Ukraine.

[@zenmail42]

Really enjoy your content and perspectives. Also, please don't be afraid of making longer videos, we'd all watch them!

[@viggob4816]

Logistical problems is part of Russia's military failure in the first face of this war. But could Ukraine get logistical problems too in the future? I see a lot of countries supply all kinds of vehicles and heavy weapons. But in the long run they have to be repaired and you need spare parts. The many systems could multiply the number of spare parts needed in the supply chain and you need skills to repair things too.

[@politimanden]

Tak for din indsats med at gøre din viden tilgængelig !!

[@marcus_ohreallyus]

Russia does not learn from failure. Especially in just a few weeks

[@johnathanhughes9881]

Makes sense - the first requirement for learning from failure is to admit failure has occurred. As far as I can tell the Russian mindset appears to be based around hiding failure rather than acknowledging it. The inevitable result is that the poor tactics will continue. . . .

[@inkognitonoori9486]

Can they even learn without putting the regime to scrutiny? The military was kept hollow for a reason (Putin fearing an insurgence from the military, pleasing oligarchs) and the russian culture desensitives constructive feedback.

[@v8pilot]

Interesting the comparisons between Hitler and Putin: - Micro managing troop activities on the battlefield. - Thinking that fighting their opponent (the USSR in Hitler's case) would be a walkover: We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.”

[@aenorist2431]

Someone should really link from a Perun video here, similar quality of content and we could all do with more good analysis.

[@enricogattone432]

Totally agree, have made the same parallel in my mind

[@birgerschmahr8375]

Sir Go on, go on

[@securion100]

Its almost like the Zombies are self aware

[@MrHvidkaer]

And!

[@InfoSopher]

A lot of "ands" in there. ;) Sometime after 3:00.

[@henrik5761]

Sadly I have only recently discovered this channel.

[@kerzkinetic]

Love yer work. ( ... your positioned links at the end of the vid conceal the other links when using the 'From Anders Puck Nielsen' drop-down menu ... ) Subscribed.

[@160rpm]

Sounds more and more like he's running the show like something from the 3rd Reich

[@dixztube]

pull up putin!!!!

[@ironmantooltime]

Putin has acknowledged the first objective failed but this pivot is a test: Donbas victory should be 100% achievable (in the fascist dictator's mind). Hence he will double down; assume lessons have been learned, and that Donbas is "easy". But, 1) the fundamental problem with the invasion is not resolved (it's a pointless fascist vanity assault) and 2) the underlying assumption of Russian exceptionalism and competence is so wrong the Putin-nightmare scenario may in fact occur: Russia is losing badly and will continue to lose badly at every junction. The sole "objective" Russia can "achieve" is brutalising civilians and destroying residential capital. But the cost of doing so is quite high for them. They look pathetic, heavily criminalise themselves, expose their own weakness and incompetence and invite, the longer they continue, a progressively more severe response. It's a joke so far how Germany cries it can't more rapidly reduce Russian gas use. An absolute joke. They won't take a half point off GDP to save a 100k lives. Frankly disgusting. But even they, assuming this continues through the summer, should start to figure out how to switch poor people's houses to hydrogen, or whatever it takes. That really is the only thing funding this hunting holiday for Putin right now in Ukraine. So every hot tub in Bavaria has a pint of Ukrainian blood in it. 👏👏👏

[@ThePRCommander]

Good and informative video. I regard to the so-called Russian fiasco, I respectfully disagree. At least for now. I see indicators of a new type of operation.

[@anderspuck]

We'll see how successful they'll be with this new approach, but I think it's quite clear this was not how they expected things to be.

[@ThePRCommander]

@@anderspuck The indicators I see, right or wrong, go beyond Ukraine. Im not finished with my analysis yet. Will get back with an answer.

[@ironmantooltime]

@@ThePRCommander how did you get on with that analysis?

[@ThePRCommander]

​@@ironmantooltime As for now, my conclusion is people. 1. The Kiev Group was not strong enough to capture the city. Its sub-objectives were of a different kind. These were as follows: - Military, to develop a binding operation. - Civilian, animating as many people as possible, to flee. - Financially, to reduce the effectiveness of the local/regional economy. - Infrastructural, to destroy as many military assets as possible. Remember the refugee crisis some months before the war. Western Europe did not want those refugees. They came from the MENAPT countries. And on top of that, later on, the messages from Russia to Ukraine, at the outbreak of war "Be Very Afraid!". In other words; flee. Yes, A special military operation. 2. Unfortunately, Western politicians seem to support this strategy. They keep the conflict going, knowing that in the end, Ukraine can not win. The country's economy is collapsing. One out of eight citizen has fleed the country; meaning they dont trust their own goverment, to provide them safety. Here in Western Europe and in fact also in Russia, our indigenous peoples are shrinking. For at least four decades, Western politicians have been trying to remedy this by letting millions of migrants enter our society. However, the migrants, who are primarily from the MENAPT countries, have proved to be a disaster. Crime has exploded, parallel societies have been created and trust between citizens has been reduced. On top of that, the political spectrum has been polarized to a new level. In fact, we are facing a bloody civil war. So new citizens are needed. People with the same values as here in the west. People who want to become part of the west. The BTG has a lot of firecrackers. It makes a lot of noise. Its weak infantry component makes it weak in urban assaults. However, its firepower component, is lethal to any civilian. The noise alone, from all that firepower., will scare most civilians. Even though a military person could explain to them, that they are in fact safe inside the city, due to the weak BTG infantry component; it doesn't matter, they will instinctively, consider to flee; to the west. So all this bullying of Russia, from Western experts, media, influencers and politicians, fits in well with the Russian strategy. With this, Russia can not be accused of being behind an animation of the coming civil war. So, in short, the war in Ukraine has several purposes; but the primary thing is to animate a civil war in the West. And this without even firing a single shot. The Ukrainian refugees are being welcomed with open arms. We already like them. A fact that has not gone unnoticed among the migrants from MENAPT countries. The irreconcilable disagreement is growing day by day, so now it may be a matter of a couple of years or three, then there is civil war in Western Europe. meanwhile Ukraine is destroyed and the current goverments strategy, to forge a nation in fire, will fail. President Putin is not a military man, he is from the intelligence community. Thus masspsycological operations is what he is trained in. A special military operation.

[@ironmantooltime]

Educate me, why Menapt? Why Pakistan and not Afghanistan? Menaat? No Syria? Menaapts? So you take people from south and central Africa or are they targets for racial prejudice as well and guilty of inciting civil war in the west? How about Mexicans. Damn they're mean aren't they. You know what I think is the problem? Under-educated and underemployed white males 20-35 with weak father figures. I say deport all those fnckers to mother Russia right now.