Is Russia winning? -- 30MAY2022

[@daedalusmedia]

I’m glad someone agrees with my assessment that this isn’t nearly as dramatic as it’s being made out to be. I started seeing people on social media suggesting that Kyiv is in danger again and I started flipping open the live conflict map and telegram, looked at the reports of the tactical situation and started wondering who was smoking what.

[@daedalusmedia]

@Kevin Allies By any chance did you happen to serve in the United States Army as a SNCO?

[@deankruse2891]

well, losing up to 100 a day is pretty dramatic

[@daedalusmedia]

@@deankruse2891 I mean the losses on both sides are horrible, at least as best as we can tell right now. But a lot of commentators are looking at this as huge shift. In my mind this is closer to the Battle of Verdun to than anything else. A brutal grinding battle of attrition and gains measured in at best a few meters here and there.

[@deankruse2891]

@@daedalusmedia you are right, I don’t know if it is a huge shift, but Russia has momentum, likely because they poured in more than they can afford to lose to take severodonetsk

[@kevint1910]

the Ukrainians have lost 8 years worth of prepared fortifications and are now in a fighting retreat on open ground with no air cover or artillery support in a nearly enclosed salient with only two rural roads out both of which can be fired on from the Russian positions at some point on their rout ...it is not "dramatic" in that this was inevitable but make no mistake the Ukrainian eastern front is buckling and IF they get that army out at all it will be falling back quite a ways to the next set of fortifications to the west and those gains on any map will be "dramatic".

[@peterjrgensen2792]

Super gode, neutrale, analyser. Bedste nye kanal jeg har fundet længe :)

[@dogcarman]

Enig. Han har ALT for få abonnenter.

[@seb_5969]

What language is this? I can understand it as a German

[@blargvlarg1390]

@@seb_5969 Google Translate says Danish, which wouldn't be a surprise since this channel is Danish.

[@peterjrgensen2792]

@@seb_5969 Danish. :)

[@seb_5969]

@@peterjrgensen2792 wow, i had no idea how close our two languages are.

[@Adaetro]

A+ pronunciation

[@Wollemand]

He is a Language officer by trade 👍🏻

[@EdMcF1]

@@Wollemand And Danish :-)

[@Viggo_Frb]

Thanks for great analysis! Any chance you could do a very detailed deep-dive video from your (Danish) perspective on Sweden and Finland joining Nato? Thanks again!

[@anderspuck]

Good idea. I will think about that.

[@Viggo_Frb]

@@anderspuck thanks so much!

[@youareliedtobythemedia]

the truth is both countries are losing. it's just yet unclear who loses more.

[@allydea]

At the national level it's clear Ukraine is losing a LOT more. At the operational level, it's indeed difficult to say.

[@mikeshoults4155]

It's not Russia vs Ukraine... It's Russia vs Ukraine, American, England, Germany, Australia, Ect ect ect ect ect ect. Ukraine is going to keep getting fresh weapons and equipment until every last centimeter of their territory is reclaimed. There is no way Russia can keep up it's production to match the industrial might of the entire world. Russia is the underdog in this fight.

[@saumyacow4435]

In terms of hardware, Russia is losing at a ratio of about 3.5 to 1. Look for a website with the name oryxspioenkop

[@allydea]

@@saumyacow4435 Regardless of whether or not that figure is accurate, isn't that what you expect? Ukraine has no hardware so how could they lose it?

[@allydea]

@@mikeshoults4155 Political support for Ukraine may wane as people in the West get exposed to more and more information. Paying $5-10 billion a month to support this war might not feel so hot for the average EU/US citizen in a few months. Time will tell.

[@Kajun1776]

Always appreciate your videos. Thank you, sir

[@Netherlands031]

A video about why taking Crimea is far-fetched? Yes please!

[@MarcosElMalo2]

I don’t think its completely delusional, just mostly delusional. 1) I don’t think Ukraine’s military is sufficiently strong. 2) I think Putin would use tactical nukes to defend Crimea. 3) the geographical challenges are great. That said, 1) the Ukraine might (eventually) take a portion, 2) Threatening Crimea (from Kherson, if Kherson is retaken by Ukraine) will draw Russian forces away from other areas. 3) Longer term, when the peace is being negotiated, there would be an impetus to create a DMZ in the northern part of Crimea, with international peace keepers. Maybe the biggest factor is the least predictable: what happens inside the Kremlin, inside Russia, and inside the other Republics of the Federation. As this is totally unpredictable, we shouldn’t become invested in the notion, but its a tiny possibility that Russian internal events will lead to the loss of Ukraine. One can imagine all sorts of scenarios, including a perfect storm of scenarios, but don’t bet the family farm on it. I suspect/predict that there will be peacekeepers in Eastern Donbas as well, as part of a negotiated settlement.

[@ingo98]

@@MarcosElMalo2 I think you're delusional to think Russia would use a nuke next to its border.

[@josephmunning4890]

Thank you for your analysis of the war. I’d be interested to know why you find it so unlikely Ukraine can take Crimea.

[@Badpak.]

I am too

[@michaelsheremet2393]

Crimea is geographically protected. Narrow land bridge to a large territory. It is easy to protect. And Russia had all time in the world to set up defensive positions. Just my humble opinion.

[@ivansytsev2581]

My bet would be that to capture such a peninsula, you would need a strong navy with a strong amphibious assault potential, which Ukraine does not have.

[@anderspuck]

Yeah, that was a bit of a cliffhanger. Maybe I will make a video about Crimea. But the short story is that the terrain is really difficult, and it would turn many of the current dynamics upside down. Suddenly Ukraine would get the long supply lines, and the Russians could play the defensive game. And also Russia would be relieved of all the artificial restrictions from the "special military operation" because they consider it Russian territory.

[@benjones4365]

@@anderspuckIt's the fact that Russia will claim (falsely in my opinion) that Ukrainian Forces going in to Crimea, is an attack on Russia proper and that they (Russia) need to protect ourselves. Also some western countries may be uncomfortable with fighting around the Sevastopol Navy Base, as I am sure that Russia have Nuclear weapons there.

[@Cptnbond]

It's always so amazing to listen to your analysis. It is like removing the fog from what is going on in Ukraine. Looking forward to the next episode. Thanks, Anders.

[@TheNapchop]

Russia has had to concentrate so much of its force just to make these small gains at the expense of losing ground in other areas it has removed forces from. It's a real sign that Russia can only make small gains by concentrating on small areas and expending vast amounts of ammunition while losing men and equipment at a rate it cannot sustain to gain any large territory. Can it defend what it takes? Ukraine can mobilize 700,000 fighters who are now motivated to kill Russians. Russia is having problems just to mobilize troops to replace its losses and many are more interested in looting than fighting.

[@toto-yf8tc]

Where are the 700k soldiers? I see much more Ukrainian young men enjoying shopping and tourism in the streets of Western Capital cities than in the front line

[@BoleDaPole]

It's basically just poor men or rich guys looking for a adrenaline fix. It's not an accident that most " refugees" leaving Ukraine are arriving in BMWs and audis.

[@Frederiknshansen]

Exactly. Good take. Ignore comments below mine, since they know fuck-all.

[@matfbvvv436]

Какое мародерство? У тебя мозги пропагандой промыты

[@tonydevos]

Just zoom out, see how little russia has gained in 4 months with casualties surpassing what it suffered in ten years in Afghanistan. The Viet Cong killed itself in the Tet Offensive that was portrayed in the media as a success, the Germans opened up Germany by destroying its army in the Battle of Bulge

[@miroslavhoudek7085]

Not sure about this. Seems like Russia just threw everything and a sink - and not much happened. A lot of phone calls of russian soldiers are near mutiny, talk about losing whole groups, or at best half of all soldiers. I don't think you can extrapolate current last ditch effort into future and say, see, they still got it. Everyone "still gots it" until they don't. We can't probably estimate if Russia is at some breakpoint already, or if it's weeks away ...

[@mishutkamishutka5756]

These calls are fake!

[@miroslavhoudek7085]

@@mishutkamishutka5756 calling everything you don't like "fake" is no way to live a life.

[@mishutkamishutka5756]

@@miroslavhoudek7085 Keep on being a fool and believing in Ukrainian fakes. The Russian army banned phones in Ukraine.

[@miroslavhoudek7085]

@@mishutkamishutka5756 why would these be fakes? To achieve what exactly? That some guy like myself listens to Russians lamenting how their bosses stole their night visions goggles and how they are sent to fight in nonsensical attacks without support? What military objective would that achieve? :-D Also, your argument is that some behaviour is forbidden in Russian army - thus it is impossible that soldiers are doing it? :-D And what other well documented behaviour is forbidden? Maybe rape? Murder? Torture? Stealing washing machines? Wouldn't these things be also forbidden? And yet ...

[@mishutkamishutka5756]

@@miroslavhoudek7085 These are fake Ukrainian propaganda.

[@lorax8172]

The fact RU has pulled out T64s (edit: T62s) from storage and increased the age limit for joining the army indicates RU has taken losses that have really hindered their effectiveness, and they are getting desperate.

[@senecanero3874]

T62 not T64 different lineage (worse)

[@Shelmerdine745]

The T62s are used by reserve forces. They will probably just be used to fill in gaps and to free up regular forces.

[@Свободадляроссии]

@@Shelmerdine745 Otherwise this war would be close to being over, if Russia doesn't have anything more than Chrushchov era tech. You're most likely right but that is still significant enough.

[@ludmilascoles1195]

Crews are the key, you can't take the out of storage

[@lorax8172]

@@Shelmerdine745 I think they were brought to the Kherson region since all their best gear from there was moved to the Eastern front a couple weeks ago. So the UA counter offensive in Kherson may be defended by T62s. It will be interesting how they will hold up.

[@christosswc]

You are wrong, Ukraine is losing the war. I'd need a few pages to explain why so all I can say to you is this:Sit back and watch.

[@gabejm8617]

Only the MSM has underestimated the Russian Army

[@curtcoeurdelion]

Russia is winning - but only in the Flying Turret Competition.

[@user-dmytro92]

Agreed, except 1 thing: Ukraine was not surprised by situation in Donbas, many people predicted that it would happen when russia stop attacking everywhere and concentrate their power on a few directions. As ukrainian authorities said, the more weapons we get and the faster it happens - the sooner is counterattack. That is the main problem right now

[@Shelmerdine745]

They prepared defenses there for 8 years.

[@osric1730]

@@Shelmerdine745 So what? The French poured a vast chunk of its national resources into the Maginot Line over 20 years. And anyway those defenses were supposed to defend against separatists not the full focus of the entire Russian army. The notion that such defenses were ever going to just hold the Russians in place indefinitely is a nonsense. The Germans penetrated Soviet defenses inflicted terrible casualties and took territory from the Russians at Kursk. The battle was arguably a tactical draw despite German territorial gains, it was however a massive strategic defeat. Almost always the expectation is not that defenses will hold, but that they will blunt an offensive, sap the enemy of strength and impose a disproportionate attritional cost, thereby offering the opportunity for a counter-offensive, which is precisely what the Soviets achieved at Kursk. The value of current Russian advances is entirely dependent on the price it pays for them, not on the territory they acquire unless they achieve a breakthrough. If their advantage of firepower is enabling them to make incremental advances without incurring significant attrition, then the momentum will remain with Russia even when the intensity of operations subsides. If, however Ukraine can cede ground where necessary whilst conducting an effective fighting withdrawal, then the Russian army will be significantly weakened for little gain.

[@Shelmerdine745]

@@osric1730 You honestly think Ukraine was not preparing for an attack by Russia in Donbas? 🤦‍♀️ Not reading much beyond your silly comparison to Maginot.

[@osric1730]

@@Shelmerdine745 Nobody in Ukraine believed Russia was going to attack and dismissed American assurances that it was indeed going to happen right up until the day the tanks rolled over the border. And even if they did nobody builds static defenses in the expectation that they will hold like a dam. Certainly not a country with limited resources like Ukraine against an adversary like Russia was expected to be. And anyway they did in fact produce the desired results because they played into the calculus that caused Russia to bypass them, as the Germans did Maginot, except the Russian bypass was defeated. So they have already succeeded beyond expectations. Sorry you find reading such a strain.

[@Shelmerdine745]

@@osric1730 Complete nonsense, nothing to do with reality. I don’t mind reading at all, just not the drivel you write.

[@markovermeer1394]

Attrition is the key. When Russia has conquered the Donbas, they probably bet on Ukraine to be too exhausted to continue, and eager to sign some deal. It has given them Transnistria, South Ossetia, etc. However, they will have a big problem when Ukraine does not run out of motivation and army, although that can be helped by bombing the free cities. It would be unusual to continue: most defenders are glad when the attacks stop. But this war is different for historical reasons.

[@lagrangewei]

if Attrition is key, Ukraine is screwed, Russia is simply a much larger economy. the deciding factor is not attrition, it is logistic, that is what Russia is waiting for. he think Russia is slowing down because of losses in the video, that is an error in reading, they are slowing down to allow supply to catch up. if you understand this, you will know where Russia will attack next, they are fighting for roads and railway, not territory. once they have the roads, they can deal with the territory.

[@markovermeer1394]

@@lagrangewei The Russian army cannot stop without the full Donbass. But, although huge, it has limited ways to replenish large military equipment and personnel. It will also feel the pain of the destroyed infra when they occupy a certain area.

[@SteenLarsen]

@@lagrangewei Russia is larger than Ukraine yes. But in this war Ukraine is receiving weapons from the entire western world whose economy is huge compared to Russia. The Russian economy is smaller than that of Italy for comparison!

[@lagrangewei]

@@SteenLarsen Attrition is not about weapon, it about people. unless NATO is willing to die for Ukraine, giving them weapon they are not trained to use will not do anything. the illusion NATO has is they think this is the same as USSR intervention in Afghanistan, it is not, the USSR never took over the people of Afghanistan. whereas Russia is handing out passport and id to east ukraine and mobilizing the population there to fight. it will be east ukrainian vs west ukrainian, they are turning this into a civil war. in Afghanistan, foreign fighter were flooding in to fight a jihad, that give the jihadist the manpower to win. Ukraine relie on Soldier of fortune, that is 6000 men at best, and I bet with you Russia recruited more than 6000 from donbass to fight.

[@toddinde]

@@lagrangewei This is a familiar situation to the US like in Vietnam. At some point, even Goliath gets tired, while people fighting for their homeland never seem to get tired. But Russia is not Goliath. Their economy is on the ropes and they have a declining demographic. They are sacrificing a generation of young people on a vanity project, and their young people aren't much interested in dying in the mud in Ukraine. You can paint a rosy picture of taking a road junction or railway line here or there, but the fact is, Russia is fighting for kilometers, and losing as much as they are gaining, while they are losing a lot of combat power. It is not looking good for Russia at all, and it's about to get a lot worse.

[@ACorpseWithoutSoul]

Greetings from Finland. At summer Ukraine have 1 million soldiers and russkies have only 100000 soldiers. Soon Ukraine start massive counter attacks and kick russkies out of Ukraine. Also Crimea taken back to Ukraine. I really hope Finland send to Ukraine some Patria Nemo. Patria 6x6 and Patria Nemo: protected mobility - ultimate firepower ://@ @

[@JAGtheTrekkieGEMINI1701]

People do NOT get that Wars take in generell months or YEARS before it's officially "over" Hell even a "Blitzkrieg" takes weeks or Months! What Russia seem to achieve now in June 2022 is the occupation of Donbass and reaching their *minimal* goal. Phase 2 would be to take Kiev/whole Ukraine and that must NOT happen so I started to donate money to support Ukraine at least until the end of this year and so should *YOU!!* ✌️

[@martintomrer79]

Jeg glæder mig til den næste analyse vedr krigen i Ukraine. God arbejde vh Martin

[@jhill4071]

3 June 2022 It's the general consensus that from a strategic viewpoint Putin lost the moment Finland and Sweden elected to join NATO. It's also agreed that with the current world sanctons the Russia economy is going to fail a second time unless the Russia Army pulls out including the oil rich Donbas and Crimea and installs new non KGB leadership. No negotiations no more hollow promises.

[@johnwalsh4857]

yes agree claims of turning points are premature and we will see in the next week or so how the battle goes, my vbiew is that the Russians might take the Donbass, but they would incur massive casualties and vehicle losses. So much so that it makes them ripe for a Ukr counterattack. looking at the war as it is going, well it seems that Russian goals are getting smaller and smaller and its only month 3 going into month 4. the Russians are going slow and taking huge losses. and the Russian economy cannot absorb the war the longer the war goes. I think the war will end this year probably in the fall or winter. of 2022 maybe going into 2023. Why do I say so,? well the months of June to Sept are months where the terrain of Ukraine in good for mechanized warfare, the ground is open weather clear, and ground is hard. and the Russians will try to use that to their advantage. Right now its slow since the ground is muddy and the Russians are mainly stuck on roads. I can see the Russians making significant gains in the months of June to Sept. then when the rains and mud comes again they will get bogged down. However I do think the Russians will overstretch and incur massive losses and get counterattacked as the Ukrainians will probably switch from infantry guerilla style supplemneted by armor to full on armor but supplemented by off road vehicles with mounted ATGMs. I think both sides will use these off road civilian vehicles and wheeled APCs in the summer months to supplement their tracked AFVs to bring in troops and to conduct maneuver warfare vs. the less maneuverable tracked AFVs destroying them with ATGMs, however I think the Ukrainains will excel better on this side, and have more of them, while the Russians only have them with their elite units. most of their troops will be mounted on tracked APCs

[@lenrely2033]

I subscribe to Denys Davydov who posts multiple updates from the front lines each day. As a Ukranian you have to understand he has to celebrate their victories while being cautiously optimistic. A country can't say "If we lose..." and consider those outcomes, they are typing and texting from their home computers right now in a free country.

[@investstrong878]

Thanks you for this sobering analysis!!

[@ea02217523a]

Please provide your credentials. I’m not at all convinced you have a compelling argument, rather an opinion, at best. Sorry. Have you any facts?

[@nozhki-busha]

Russia will reach a culminating point before long. Also if the heavy weapons can reach them soon, it could turn the tables. I agree with you that Crimea being retaken is unlikely, but they may they push the Russians back to their pre-war borders.

[@WarBadger]

Ahhahah, you listening to some bullshit

[@Marmocet]

LOL. No heavy weapons are going to arrive that are going to "turn the tables". Even if all the weapons being sent to them reached the front, the logistical capabilities required to keep those weapons functioning (ammunition, spare parts, fuel, trained personnel, etc.) simply don't exist. Even in the best case scenario, the quantities of heavy weapons earmarked for delivery to Ukraine might make a tactical difference in a battalion vs battalion sized battle, but at the broader operation scale, their potential impact is vanishingly insignificant to the point of practical non-existence.

[@claudemaggard7162]

I liked how you explained that.

[@Furudal]

Thank you for this great analysis. In the future, could you also talk about the factor Moral will play? Moral is probably already low on the Russian side. There is a chance that, if a Ukrainian counteroffensive gains momentum and some Russian units start to run, they will run big. Again, in crimea things might be completely different in this respect as well.

[@tomitiustritus6672]

If i set out to dig a pond in my garden, break off my shovel while digging, tumble forwards, get my foot stuck in the bucket sized hole imanaged to dig until then, cause my neighbors to hate me due to me throwing the earth over into their garden and threatening to come over and punch them if they don't shut up, decide to limp to the garden shop with my broken foot to just get a bird bath to put in that hole instead, drop it on my other foot on my way back home and get the cops called on me because it's already late in the evening and me screaming in anger annoys the neighbors and then, maybe manage to put the bird bath into that hole in the end and call it a day... Did i achieve my goals or did my goals achieve scaling down to my failures? Because that is in essence what Russia pulls off right now. Severodonetsk is the bird bath here.

[@ludmilascoles1195]

I Have heard a new term for this new Russian style 'Klutzkrieg' They have had great progress if this was 1917 ;) One wag called the campaign so far as 'Shampoo Attacks' ie 'Rinse and Repeat'

[@ttcc5273]

LOL both of those are great 👍 kleptoklutzkrieg - Russians soldiers fight for washing machines, while Putin sends them to die in order to steal Ukraine’s natural gas and other resources

[@ronaldmarcks1842]

You are very likely right about Crimea, but why should Russians enjoy a secure life there? Why can't Sevastopol be shelled at will by Ukraine?

[@anderseriksen2282]

@Anders Puck Nielsen: Hej Anders, - har lige Subscribe`d, - og du får lige 1 Like for denne analyse.

[@peterkratoska4524]

The one thing I have noticed with this conflict is that so many experts were wrong. Not saying Anders necessarily, but prior to the start many were saying Russia's buildup is just a bluff and nothing to see. After the invasion this was followed by, oh well it will be a matter of days or weeks but Ukraine's forces will just be surrounded and mopped up, but that was equally wrong. Likely because of the over-confidence for a quick victory on Putins side, poor equipment due to corruption, and lack of fighting will among the RF while the Ukrainians had much more motivated will to fight and many were battle hardened after 8 years of fighting in the Donbass. Several weeks into the war the allies had a meeting in Mannheim base and realized that Ukraine can actually win this and started supplying more powerful weapons (the slow pace of this has a lot to do with a democratic system which actually requires agreement and bureaucratic procedures to get going) A month into the conflict the Russian forces announced a change of plan - as it was readily obvious (and should have been to any military planner) that you need 3 or preferably 4 x the advantage to successfully invade (contrast the last really successful Soviet and Warsaw pact invasion - Operation Danube in 1968 Czechoslovakia - something around 800,000 troops were used in a much smaller country in population and size. Also unexpected was the western allies united response, basically giving nato a purpose, the addition of 2 Nato members (which far increases the Nato border with Russia) as well as the far more powerful than expected economic sanctions which will hit the Russian economy very hard, basically achieving in all cases the opposite of what Putin had intended (not including the embarrasing performance of the Russian forces). Regarding attrition, Ukraine immediately put itself on a war footing and mobilized and has since built up an army of nearly 800,000. Russia on the other hand has relied on volunteers and some poorly trained conscripts, as well as an increasing number of contractors from poor regions like Buryat and Dagestan (also a time bomb when enough of them die) Ukraine is getting increasingly more powerful weapons while Russia is now pulling out tanks from the 60s (T62) etc. not to mention the tank factory in Uralwagonzavod is sitting idle due to a lack of electronics (that come from the west). We are seeing older and older pilots in their 50s and even one aged 63 which is telling, and Russia still does not have air superiority. The calls for recruits in Russia now include men up to 65, but despite all the calls for mobilization (no matter how much Strelkov-Girkin demands it) it just won't happen as it is one thing to have a special military action and show it on tv with all sorts of victories but possible 15yr sentence for anyone uttering that it is a "war", to suddenly require people in Moscow and St. Petersburgh to send their husbands and sons to fight - for actually unclear reasons is quite another. It is both an economic debacle with a bogged down military, with RF losing 2/3rd of a battalion per day so essentially is a numbers game and just a matter of time - late summer, fall (and we're not even considering the soldiers who refuse to fight (115 Rosgvardia), Ossetian soldiers who went back to Ossetia, and since its not a war - it is not desertion so not much can really happen. There is even a Russian force that has switched over to the Ukrainian side.

[@MicrosoftProjectRU]

With artillery superiority you don't need to risk air forces. Also RF are using frontline airforces like Ka-52 helicopter. They fly and burn Ukrainian tanks without big problems. We see videos with Ka-52 attacks every day, but not any proved losses of significant numbers losses of Ka-52 in may. In reality this war is not mobilization. It's about quality of artillery management. For artillery 800 thousands soldiers are targets only. More problem how to organize cemetery for them. Who can command artillery better is winner

[@shonuff4323]

It has all been propaganda. If you would just seek out independent journalists you would see that Russia has been winning from day one. Ukraine is completely a lost cause.

[@urrywest]

@@MicrosoftProjectRU Yep... It is going to be a big job to ID, and transport the bodies of all who have lost their lives... That sad detail will be left to the LPR, DPR and russian regulars after the biggest part of the alterlery fire has died down. Such a whaste.

[@peterkratoska4524]

@@shonuff4323 and that's why they gave up on Kiev.. and the Moskva sank from someone smoking in the ammo room. SHouldn't you be out planting potatoes? The 90s will look good soon.

[@peterkratoska4524]

@@urrywest they should start with their own, the ones they can't be bothered to bring back. The DPR refuse to Fight in LPR and it seems many of them are just press ganged on the street. Its a meat grinder out there mom, no we don't need a meat grinder bring back a blender.

[@orrode2]

Back in late February~early March, media (and social media) was talking about how Ukrainian armed forces were done for and Ukraine was doomed, at the mercy of Putin. By mid-March and early April the narrative changed. As you said it's just too early to draw conclusions.

[@hoodoo2001]

The only problem that I have with this video is that it is far to rational. It is not selling the normal hysterical and panicking soup de jour.

[@echadmiyodea]

Ukraine absolutely MUST push russia completely out of their territory, to include Crimea, no matter what it takes to do it. There is no question of this. At some point russia will have to withdraw if they wish to continue to exist. It will be Afghanistan, except much quicker. The alternative is that russia collapses internally, which will happen if other territories choose this optimal time to also fight for their freedom from russia.

[@JeffStevens]

I would love to hear your thoughts on why Crimea cannot be retaken. I agree with you, but I am an amateur.

[@jesperjfl]

Great videos Anders, as a novice to military doctrine and subject to the ‘fog of war’ is great to have your sober and good analytic videos to put thing in perspective!

[@ScottGenX]

Ukraine said they were doing a controlled withdraw and is part of a greater plan. Russia is not at all winning anything....lol They can make all kinds of progress. it flows all around.

[@nhatvu8800]

come on, they already failed in Kyiv and everywhere else, and now they try to save face by saying that their goal is only Donbas. If Kyiv was never their goal, why sent a 40-miles-long convoy toward Kyiv then? It's war, you win some days, you lose some days. This war is not anywhere near over yet. How some so-called human beings in this world could voice support for a barbaric invasion is beyond me. How they wish for the barbarians to win the war is beyond me. I guess those ugly souls are so blinded by politic-fueled hatred, and they have no idea what it's like to be a small country having to face constant threats from a big bully neighbor. My homeland Vietnam had to face Chinese invasions for thousands of years. For some periods, we were occupied for decades and even centuries. If we gave up and let the invaders win, we would have disappear from the map centuries ago. How some ugly souls in this world could support Russia's action is beyond my understanding. It's just disgusting. If you're lucky enough to be born a citizen of a strong country that doesn't have to worry about existential threats, then you should appreciate it, and help the weaker people in weaker countries that need help. If you are also born in a small country with history of oppression, invasions, slavery... then you should be careful about who you're cheering for, karma may get you someday.

[@doxun7823]

The old adage "Russia is never as Strong nor as Weak as she appears" has held up pretty well for the course of this war. I say this to myself every time the conventional wisdom swings one way or the other.

[@MarcosElMalo2]

I heard one commentator (who is pro Ukraine) say something like the following, “At this time, what is the motivation for Putin to leave? Why wouldn’t he keep his forces in Ukraine for as long as possible, in the hopes that he’ll get something out of it.” Its very frustrating to hear this, but it is true. What does Putin have to lose? He doesn’t value human life. He’s got nukes, so the loss of equipment isn’t a large issue. Plus he has lots more obsolete equipment rusting in storage, for internal suppression.

[@fernandoc.dacruz1162]

É fraca sim, se levar em conta o tamanho, é a mais fraca das grande nações atualmente, já foi passada para trás pela China, faz tempo, atualmente não esta em condições de brigar com mais ninguém, não tem condições rivalizar com uma nação mais armada que a Ucrânia.

[@toddinde]

@@MarcosElMalo2 The problem for Putin is economic collapse and public opinion turning against the war to the point where Russian recruits don't show and troops don't fight. There is a limit to throwing troops into a meat grinder. Russian troops have a long history of rebellion including in 1917. Also look at Germany in 1918. These events have accelerated in the modern era due to mass communication and globalization. Therefore, the economic collapse can take place in a matter of months, and the demoralization of troops can occur much more quickly than in largely agricultural societies of the early 20th century. It seems to me that helping Ukraine press the advantage now can lead to a situation similar to Russia in 1917 or Germany in 1918 much more quickly. To avoid that, Russia might sue for peace for limited territorial gains sooner rather than risk this.

[@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311]

@@toddinde Russian losses are tiny compared to the overall size of the Russian population. The Russian economy is not collapsing and the war is not unpopular in Russia. The Western media is full of wishful thinking.

[@mariaf.6601]

@@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 How to name your thinking ? Russia's economy is not collapsing YET, and Putin is aware of that cities population don't want to go fighting, so the army seeks cannon fodder in peripheries: Caucasus , Siberia ...

[@sbuttgereit]

Seeing this for the first time, now in mid-September... clearly a very insightful and studied opinion for the time. Glad to have subscribed.

[@noreavad]

I really appreciate that you present your arguments with reason, facts and moderation. Something that is dearly missing in our day and age. Always quite interesting to hear you! TY!

[@JohannesSebastian]

Great work

[@viperbaron1]

I would be interested to see you lecture on the coming Taiwan war.

[@oolieboolieyeah]

Unless things change dramatically for Russian logistics and morale, the operational Russian army may simply implode from the weight of desertion (legal or otherwise), mutiny, and domestic resistance from the growing kernel of Russians who are getting fed up with the situation. Incredibly, the most realistic chance of Ukraine retaking Crimea might see them effectively walking instead of fighting their way in.

[@mishutkamishutka5756]

Don't write stupid fantasies.

[@Pierluigi_Di_Lorenzo]

'Anecdotal evidence' is an oxymoron.

[@rogerpennel1798]

The Russians have moved to a broad front strategy recently and they are launching bite and hold offensives. They launch small localized offensives along a wide front hoping to draw a numerically inferior Ukrainian force into counter-attacking and then use their numerical superiority in artillery to attrit the Ukrainians. However, bite and hold offensives require good communications, good training, good tactics, and experience to be successful. Since these are small unit actions leadership needs to be delegated forward to unit commanders which is the opposite of the way the Russian military works. It can be an effective strategy to dilute the strength of your enemy by forcing them to defend a wide front but it also has its weaknesses. Because the Russians can't coordinate their actions if they are going in opposite directions and it allows the Ukrainians to defeat the Russian offensives in detail since widely separated attacks can't provide mutual support. I'm not sure the Russians have the logistics necessary to achieve a large breakout in any sector or to supply the forces they already have in the field? A wide front strategy also makes it hard for the Russians to achieve a numerical superiority on any front and logistically it's a nightmare if you don't have a sufficient number of transport vehicles and adequate supplies. With a tiered readiness force structure like the Russian use, many units are understrength and are backfilled with conscripts. However, the problem is an understrength unit ends up with too many non-combat logistical and administrative personnel. Each unit needs so many support vehicles and if the unit is only at 60% strength are those vehicles being used efficiently? Are they overused or underused? From a command perspective, how do you judge the strength of a unit which on paper is supposed to be X number of men strong but was deployed before it was at full strength or has experienced serious attrition? The answer is to aggressively break up understrength units and create new units from the survivors but that requires low-level command flexibility. The situation in the south is similar to the race to the sea in WWI. Since it is artillery centric and relatively static it requires more artillery and also increases the consumption of ammunition if the artillery isn't well directed. The Ukrainians need the ability to ability to strike bridges, railyards, roads, airports, and harbors 100km behind the front to interdict the Russian supply columns if they hope to survive. If NATO won't give Ukraine aircraft and cruise missiles NATO is condemning the Ukrainians to death in hopes of not escalating tensions with Putin.

[@benjones4365]

That was a wonderful analysis, you have done there. The last bit is what I fear most, that NATO is giving them enough to fight on, but not enough to win.

[@ludmilascoles1195]

Good take on it. This bite and hold was a the basic allied strategy in late WW 2 wasteful then imagine now with arty that is 90% more accurate.5

[@rogerpennel1798]

@@ludmilascoles1195 - These small-scale attacks may be a sign of worsening logistics problems.

[@oohhboy-funhouse]

@@rogerpennel1798 I don't think Russians are having 'worse' logistical problems, if anything it's getting better key word: locally. Every time Russia pulls back from other fronts it lets them focus their efforts more and more. In the wider theatre the Russians are less well off as their supplies and men get redirected. UA is pushing on two fronts (South/North) because it's weak due to the holding action in the East tying down a lot of Russians. The question is when UA will pull back its bait. Too soon, Russians gain some momentum. Too late, UA forces get trapped for real and might have to devote a lot of forces for a break-out. As motivated as these guys are, they aren't Azov crazy, nor should UA place any of their guys into such a position again.

[@ludmilascoles1195]

@@rogerpennel1798 or they simple lack the C3 or maybe skill to do more

[@sysghost]

Just put it this way: Russia was supposed to take the whole of Ukraine in a matter of a few days. A week at most. We're close to 100 days now. Well over 3 months. And Russia only made some minor progress in the east of Ukraine. That is well impressive for Ukraine to put up such resistance. Sure it is with help of western aid and supplies but still mostly the Ukrainian military and some volunteers.

[@jacobhamselv]

Also taking Sjevjerodonest may be what causes Russia to declare complete victory. But what if Ukraine says no? What if Ukraine isn't done with this war, "just" because they lose Sjevjerodonesk?

[@Свободадляроссии]

@@jacobhamselv No need to put the "just" in asterisks. Severodonetsk is not very relevant and by now its symbolic value is greater than anything else. The fact that we're even talking about it shows how pathetic Russia has become.

[@benjones4365]

True and totally agree. My concern is in the next 3 months, Russia will have been fought to a standstill or have taken the Donetsk Oblast and will offer a ceasefire terms. What happens then Ukraine would be foolish to take it, but we all know how fickle the west is, they may turn round and say to Ukraine you can fight on, but we are not giving you any more weapons. If they do take the peace deal, Russia will be back in the next 10 years.

[@foshizzlfizzl]

Who said officially from the Russian side, that they were supposed to take whole Ukraine in few days?... Right... Nobody.

[@Matu007]

@@foshizzlfizzl Deploying VDV far behind the enemy lines, to take Kyiv as fast as possible shows already that they did plan it to be a fast one

[@yvonnetomenga5726]

@Anders Puck Nielsen • Your videos are a real pleasure to watch. You provide information in a logical, concise manner that I wish more KZbinrs used. Thank you for taking the time to explain your analysis with us. In particular, the analogy to deducing from locations of police cars was a good visual. 👍

[@davidlloyd2583]

The problem with Ukraine is they are sitting in front of massed Russian artillery. Day in day out, shelling, with no chance of rotation. On the Russian side they can rotate units, as they have the initiative and can choose where to attack next. Russia has not lost more men than Ukraine.

[@davidlloyd2583]

@Will he heck as like oh sorry Iin your alternative reality Ukraine is winning....

[@Tfaonc]

Excellent point. Well stated

[@saumyacow4435]

Whilst I agree with most of this, I don't see anything particularly special about Crimea. When it comes down to that, its still a case of who is more able to wage war at that point. The more Russia uses up its resources in the present, the weaker it will be in the end game. Russia is running short on tanks. How do we see this? Consistently lower numbers of Russian tank kills relative to earlier in May. They are getting more reluctant to lead with their tanks. Russian tactics now rely more heavily on artillery barrages, followed by infantry assaults. It used to lead with its tanks, but now they're seen less frequently and thus killed less frequently. Add to this the observation that Russia is now mobilising its obsolete T62s. You just don't do that if there are still plenty of T72s (or more modern stuff) sitting around in storage. Ukraine is clearly choosing where the war will be fought. It could easily pull out of Sievierodonetsk and pull back to a stronger defensive position across the river (and thus be able to commit more forces to the Popasna area). Its not doing this because the urban environment is where it can inflict high casualties on the Russians (and yes, high in ratio terms also). The more Russian soldiers killed in action now, the fewer that will have to be dealt with later. Russia is also running short on manpower. Its mustering another 30+ thousand troops, but by all accounts they will arrive with a month's training. This is called cannon fodder and without sufficient tanks this is going back to WWII style infantry assaults. They will of course make gains, but at the expense of ultimately leaving themselves with fewer resources and being outnumbered in later battles. Russia's "stealth" mobilisation and its rush to get poorly trained soldiers to the battle isn't going to end well. The war will go on into the summer. Ukraine will have a larger, better trained army. It will have a lot more western weapons. Its not going to enter into negotiations whilst it has the upper hand. And Russia will simply dig in the way it did around Kyiv, suffering increasing losses. So when it comes down to Crimea, what exactly is Russia going to do? What will it be capable of? its in danger of collapsing at this point. Of course it will defend Crimea, but it will be lopsided. The Kerch Strait bridge will be an obvious target. The naval fleet in port will be attacked. And don't forget that right now, Russia is depleting its forces in Crimea in order to reinforce Kherson. In short, the only way that Russia gets to keep Crimea is to immediately withdraw to Crimea and Donbas and then concentrate on defensive measures. Of course, they are too stupid and arrogant to do this.

[@ingo98]

youre delusional... Russia has enough gear to run this war for a decade straight... T62s were sent to peacekeeping missions in captured areas. They aren't in frontline.

[@saumyacow4435]

@@ingo98 And why would they not send T72s if they exist? They're a better tank, peacekeeping role or not. Russia is short on tanks. Its lost its ability to manufacture new ones. Its most of the way through its stocks of precision guided munitions. its lost over 100,000 men killed or wounded. Its now down to WWII style artillery attacks and infantry charges.

[@ingo98]

@@saumyacow4435 Its called a peacekeeping mission... just patrolling the area where's no war going on. Why doesn't your local police patrol your neighborhood with tanks? 100,000 men lost? Tell me you read BBC, CNN and the likes without telling me you read BBC, CNN and the likes.

[@ingo98]

@@saumyacow4435 You should roam around Telegram groups more... Russians are mopping the floor with Ukrainian military.. Chechen SOF are wiping out villages and towns one by one held by UAF. Updates posted daily... Tons of western weapons confiscated daily. You're brainwashed

[@AnnedolfFrankler911]

Short answer: "Yes" Long answer: "Absolutely"

[@Reloaded2111]

You sure about that?

[@ycplum7062]

Defense is easier and less costly than offense. The Ukraine did exceptionally well on the defense. To retake territory, Ukraine has to go on the offense and that is harder and more costly to do. Crimea is probably the most defensible terrain in all of Ukraine.

[@markovermeer1394]

Offense is harder and more expensive, true. So: Ukraine should only start it where it has a very clear battle advantage.

[@ycplum7062]

@@markovermeer1394 Kinda, sorta. I am not sure if a "clear advantage" is possible in war. Often, you have to take calculated risks and some of those can be risky. Sometimes, one may be faced with the "The odds suck, but it will only get worse, so it is now or never" situation. Also, the offense can be carried out at different levels.g. small scale units, operational, strategic, etc). A lot of factors comes into play, such as training and logistics. A less heirarchial structure may allow lower level units to take the initiative when they see an opportunity. A more heirarchial structure would have the lower units await orders before any action. Larger offensives will be more dependent on logistics as you go up in scale.

[@mycure0498]

Honestly if Ukraine is choosing to withdraw from Sievierodonetsk on their own terms (which looks like is happening) it’s probably for the best for multiple reasons: 1) They already delayed and inflicted heavy losses upon Russian forces advancing into the city, meaning that they’ve already made the Russians pay for the advance. 2) Supplying forces within the city has become increasingly difficult as a result of Russia’s bombing of the bridges crossing the river. 3) Retreating will deny the Russians the massive encirclement of Ukrainian soldiers they were hoping to achieve 4) Lysychansk can serve as a better defensive point since it is across a river and is stationed on higher ground than Sievierodonetsk. If anyone has anything else to add please feel free to respond.

[@benjones4365]

No, I have nothing to add, those are all very good points. Withdrawing IMO is the best option, as long as they can stop the Russians crossing the Siversky Donets river. What I would like to ponder is how do you think they can get the 10,000 men out of the city, with all the bridges down and without losing to many men? The British Paras at Arnhem comes to my mind.

[@mycure0498]

@@benjones4365 They actually still have a bridge still active (albeit smaller than the other two) that is serving as the crossing point between the two cities. Furthermore, I believe the amount of troops in Sievierodonetsk is actually around 2000 the last time I checked. The 10000 troops in question are in Lysychansk I believe.

[@rogerwilco2]

Yes, that is something I was thinking as well.

[@MicrosoftProjectRU]

Ukrainian forces cannot leave the pocket because it will crash morale of Ukrainian army. This main advantage for UF now. If UF lost morale the Ukrainian soldiers will flee from battlefield how they did it in Crimea or previous Donbass pockets.

[@deankruse2891]

@@MicrosoftProjectRU they can move to lysychansk. their moral is high because they are inflicting heavy loses on the russians. as long as russians are dying at such high numbers they will continue to fight for these regions

[@xk1390]

Clearly a smart guy. Also one of the few analysts who actually tries to correctly pronounce those Ukrainian names.

[@francoiselemeur7325]

Silly....only fools thougth ukraine was winning ...or media fed people..... Soon rubles will override $😆

[@mrright4014]

Everyone said Ukraine would lose in two or three days. I have said for years that Ukraine would defeat Putler. Out of all of Ukraine 🇺🇦. It will happen! It is the WILL OF THE PEOPLE. Over the past 20 years the PEOPLE have had two civil wars in 2008 a

[@luckyea7]

As a result of the imposed sanctions against Russia, inflation in the European Union has already become higher than in Russia. According to Rosstat, in annual terms, inflation in Russia in May was 6.02%, and inflation in the Eurozone reached a record level of 8.1% in May in annual terms. According to the latest data from the European statistical office Eurostat, this is the highest figure since the introduction of the single European currency euro in 1999. Earlier, economists estimated the level of European inflation at 7.7%. Real accrued wages in Russia in March 2022 increased by 8.2% compared to February.

[@Gerdienator]

Very interesting and a good topic of discussion that I had been curious to learn more about the last couple of weeks. I have also enjoyed your seeing you on Krigens døgn where you and the other experts really have enlightened me about the ins and outs of this terrible war. Thank you Anders!

[@avisitorhere]

The Vietnamese pushed the French and Americans out of Vietnam. How? Will. The Taliban pushed out the US from Afghanistan using mostly small arms. How? Will. Sadam Hussein bluffed his way out of the US invasion while keeping the kurds down and the Iranians stymied. How? Will. Never say that a small army can not defeat a larger enemy. If you have the will, you can make it so.

[@999crypticAFV]

Thanks! 👍

[@RTC1655]

Geographical obstacles: The river Siverski Donets will completely stop any Russian advances beyond Severodonetsk.

[@santoriniblue8413]

The UA Minister of Defense admitted in an interview on a US TV (midnight GMT+1) addmited that the daily casualties killed where in the 100 range and the wounded five times as much! It has superiority in manpower to RU, but lacks enough artillery.

[@RoySingh0611]

I’m still wondering until now what did America achieve in Afghanistan war? Their Puppet Govt was removed within 1-2 weeks and taliban are back in control anyway. After 20 years of war, what did the Americans achieve in Afghanistan?

[@bennyboy5374]

Ukraine claim 15 000 soldiers have arrived to Kherson region, that will be put in to combat in a week. With Russia having 50% of it's army at Severodonetsk it could be a good opportunity to push for Kherson.

[@PeterSedesse]

At what cost... Whenever you talk about gaining land... The other part is Lymon. Ukraine pulled back to high ground above the city. Russia can't use the rail station which is what matters. Russia has less manpower and equipment than Ukraine. Russia recently starting sending t62 tanks.. Which are old old. They also are allowing old men to now sign up for military.

[@Michael-Nic]

No 4th June. Losing many troops vechiles, tanks, artillery. Retreating from many fronts.

[@decnet100]

Russia is that overconfident mountaineer who wanted to make the peak before lunch and is now struggling to even leave behind the tree line as an unforeseen thunderstorm blocked his progress, making tired baby steps,and telling himself that if he just keeps going in the same direction, everything will be alright.

[@ingo98]

nice joke

[@pruephillip1338]

I have been suspicious of the daily KZbins of a Russian tank or a helicopter somewhere else being shot up. Didn't feel like the whole picture. But two things need mentioning here - the first is the arrival of new long range weaponry, and the second is catastrophic collapse of the Russian economy anytime soon (90% cut in EU oil today, and more banks frozen out.)

[@martstam2016]

Ukraine can regain pre 2014 territory with help of the whole West, it cost around 10 billion $ per week, it wil take 0.5% of total GDP if EU and USA

[@cdeford]

Your analysis - especially about losses - seems completely wrong to me. The Russians have been pounding away day after day with non-stop artilley barrages and the Ukrainians admit they are losing hundreds of men every day. No way, in my view, the Russian losses are higher, more likely losses are heavily in their favour. There is a fundamental misunderstanding about the battlefield, which comprises long entrenchments and strongpoints built up over 8 years. What happens is that the Russians spend some time softening them up, then make incremental gains, then start the process again. It's not slow, because their primary objective is to destroy the Ukraine army, not to capture territory quickly. This kind of warfare also gives the Russians a chance for a short rest, while the Ukrainians get no rest at all from the artillery.

[@Ebergerud]

Good grief. If the Russian offensives lead to cutting the LOCs of the Ukrainian positions in Donbass that's a really big deal and they don't have far to go to achieve that. At minimum that would force a retreat by UK forces from their entrenchments - no easy matter if any of those forces are engaged. Then the Ukraine will have to throw the Russians out of Donbass and Crimea - without outside intervention that's not going to happen - look at the bloody map - Donbass borders Russia. If there is outside intervention, pray because tactical nuclear weapons are a real possibility.

[@QALibrary]

how many troops and AFV have Russia got left? - seeing they drawing from very old supplies of T62 shows they are scrapping the bottom of the barrel

[@namotarin7251]

It's eazy to see you trying to say samthing you thinking it will help ukrianian case.. Russian has more weopen and can manufacturing by it self.. no one will go against them ..so Thay crush ukriane.. Thay have aganda and it is to split UKraine ..

[@vultureTX001]

Russia has won the latest battle, what you don't categorize is the price (non recoverable resources ) or even the diplomatic costs. As of this post US is looking to send 4000 mile (not km) range predator class drones that can deliver strategic munitions aka "Hello Moscow! time for everyone to leave till the city gets decontaminated." So Russia's rocket forces are neutered vs Ukraine and only serve to keep others at bay . Thus these tactical battles for a single city are the limit of its military that Russia finds increasingly hard to sustain.

[@johnathandavis3693]

Thanks for pointing out the UA's success in "stalling" the Russian advance. This was supposed to be a "Blitzkrieg" for the mighty Russian Army. People need to be aware that Ukraine is preparing a MAJOR counter-attack. They have been training a very force in NATO Tactics, and arming them with NATO weapons. Given the troubles we've seen Russia experience, we can expect a well -prepared, well-supplied Ukrainian force to have major success in the near future...

[@Swarm509]

I was about to say the same thing. The fact that this war hasn't been over for weeks (months now?) and things are this slow for Russia is very telling. Either they have learned their lesson and taking their time or the UA is really making them pay for the ground they are taking. At this point I'm more worried that this war will last for years and the UA cannot sustain that, whatever weapons they get. If Russian starts to really push back the UA forces the other question is where will they stop, and if they decide to take over Ukraine and if the rest of Europe would allow that. I don't see Poland accepting Russian on their door steps again.

[@ludmilascoles1195]

Klutzkrieg is a better term

[@SDRaaz]

@@ludmilascoles1195 Blyatzkrieg

[@erich9177]

Fucking lol "a major counter-attack". With what? The Azov battallion? What a fucking joke.

[@justinmindley5530]

@@erich9177 🤣🤣🤣

[@Kavala76]

Yesterday's story: Ukraine is winning Today's story: Russia isn't winning Tomorrow's story: Ooops!

[@PalleRasmussen]

Severodonetsk is the Stalingrad of this war; a militarily insignificant place that a politician focus so much on that it sucks in all resources to the detriment of other fronts. Behind Severodonetsk is a river and high ground. Good luck taking that. Meanwhile UA has gathered four brigades for an offensive towards Kherson.

[@mattiasthorslund6467]

Your channel deserves many more subscribers. Quality content here.

[@johnwalsh4857]

well I think Ukr was caught by surprise how coordinated the Russian attack was as they failed in their attacks in the area since 2014 due to extensive ukr defenses in the Donbass. and the Ukr high command has ordered the Ukr forces in the DOnbass to stay put and hold off the Russians, in the meanwhile the Russians have pulled their forces from other fronts to concentrate on donbass, the Ukrs have taken advantage of this and have been counterattacking in the South and East , so yah while the Ukrs have been caught by surprise its not a big surprise and probably in their plans to hit the Russians in their weak points and sever supply lines. So the main attack in Donbass will sputter and stop. and the Ukrs gain more land in the east and south and hopefully inflict catastrophic losses on the Russians.

[@humphreybradley3060]

Taking isn’t holding! Russia is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at this mini offensive with some progress but the wastage rate isn’t sustainable! It’s clear that the reason for their slow progress is that their logistics tail cannot keep up if the tempo increases. Without general mobilisation Putin will not achieve a huge amount more. UKR needs to withdraw, allow the Russians to overextend themselves & then counter attack & it’ll find them exhausted & unable to withstand a coordinated combined arms assault on a narrow front

[@kevinfox1780]

Is it possible that a large contingent of the Ukrainian military is being trained in various NATO countries AND that NATO has advisers in Ukraine itself? It will take at least 2-3 months to retrain Ukrainian forces in this manner and at that point all hell will break loose against Russian forces.

[@AM-jw1lo]

As Russia pulls vetran units from all over Russia, it has trained soldiers to fight. The problem comes when these units get fatiqued and disallusioned. If Putin says attack attack attack, he will burn what little motivation these soldiers hold on to. If the soldiers determine they shouldn't be in Ukraine, they will give ground when they see no hope. Perhaps this won't happen and the war will continue as we see it today. But it could be a repeat of the Kiev retreat, and it is still possible that Crimea would be given up because the soldiers don't want to fight for it. Time will tell, but i think at this point it has to do with the soldier on the front line and how he percieves his roll, fighting in Ukraine.

[@Itoyokofan]

Yhe bullshit that people keep feeding you is that "the side who attacks takes more losses, therefore Russia has lost more men". That's not true when we're talking about the advance that rely on the artillery. In such cases the defending side takes all the losses, and the advancing takes none, untill there's an actual offence or the artillery counterstrike from the defending side. As Russia is not advancing with tanks, but with artillery, the pace is slow, but ukranian forces are being killed on the much faster rate. Think about it for a minute, the artillery in the salient has much less territory to hide than the one on the side of the surrounding force. Thus there's a significant advantage for the advancing side. Once the salient becomes smaller, you cannot manuever your troopa inside of it either.

[@Trompicavalas]

I am not very good with words, but if from the first day of the invasion Russia is gaining ground in Ukraine by controlling more and more cities, the "turning point" will be when Ukraine stops defending and begins to attack to recover the lost ground.

[@KarelBeelaertsvanBlokland]

Pyrrhic Victory in Donbas = Winning the Battle, Losing the War.....

[@samghost13]

I feel like that the Ukraine Soldiers can not fight and fight and so on. I am so fucking sorry for all the People in Ukraine! Please Stop that War!!!

[@HAL_9001]

I equate it to people who suddenly espouse their disbelief in global warming when winter comes. The longer Ukraine holds or slowly gives ground the more effect sanctions have and the more western weapons enter Ukraine.

[@bmwman1981]

Russia is gaining ground but at what cost a few Km for how many men and how much armor have they lost what’s the point of gaining 2-3 km a day for 100 to 300 men and 5-10 tanks and armored cars it’s harder to be the attacker then be the defender

[@barkupatree6871]

for a military analyst, you are curiously missing common sense. is it possible that war is slower because it is street fighting and the ukes hide in civilian buildings? american shock and awe would have bombed for 90 days straight before a soldier entered by foot. a russian win in the east is not doubtful as to whether it will occur. perhaps there is a question of time. put your money where your expert mouth is.

[@MrVonsteiner]

Super interessant som vanlig.

[@Jimmie16]

No, taking and holding are two different things. If you're not a strategist it's doubtful you understand what's happening.

[@richdobbs6595]

The question is whether Ukraine is building up reserves for a counter attack in Kherson Oblast north of the Dnieper. If they can retake that, they force Russia to defend Kherson Oblast south of the river, which leaves opportunities elsewhere. The lines in the fortified part of the Donbas haven't changed significantly. Much of the Russia acquired territory could be taken back by cutting off supply lines. For the most part, Ukraine hasn't retaken territory by driving the Russians back, but by reoccupying territory that Russians have pulled back from.

[@MicrosoftProjectRU]

Main problem in Kherson Oblast is Inhulets River. Ukrainian forces need to cross the river with mine fields. It's really hard in clear area near river. Because Ukrainian tanks will easy targets for artillery and rockets.

[@saumyacow4435]

@@MicrosoftProjectRU Ukrainian forces have crossed the Inhulets River near Davydiv Brid and are making good progress in the southeast direction. The eventual target is obviously Nova Khakovka.

[@VioletGiraffe]

@@saumyacow4435, I wish this was literally true, but it's an overstatement. I guess we'll see.

[@saumyacow4435]

@@MicrosoftProjectRU Ukraine has already crossed the river in 3 places and its also mounting a counter offensive from the north (with a clear path not intersected by the river). Tanks are indeed vulnerable. This is why Ukraine is waiting on the longer range US rocket systems to bring to bear on Russian artillery units, before it cranks up the counter offensive. Right now its just establishing a foothold - and forcing Russians to redeploy and make themselves vulnerable to anti-tank missiles whilst on the move.

[@toto-yf8tc]

Dude, one of your video title is "can Putin accepts defeat" while at not a single point since the start Russia was in trouble. How can you have any credibility?

[@Niva20011]

Russian orcs will not win, beacause they have 40 milions pist Ukrainian against them. Ukraine will loose som battles but not the war.

[@Kenny-bj2zq]

People forget that there has been war there for several years - The Ukraine has built a very heavily trenched area as they have had several years to work on it so no wonder it's taking Russia a slow time to break through. The big question I think if Ukraine has to abandon these defensive area that took years to build? Either way I think this war is the new Afghanistan

[@mattsmith4027]

Can this man talk about Taiwan? I've never seen such consistently insightful analysis.

[@daniellarson3068]

Ukraine is expected to receive more armaments from US. Right now the Russians have advantage in munitions. Will this input of additional arms make a difference?

[@saumyacow4435]

The US artillery makes a difference and has now been used in several places with good effect. The thing Ukraine needs now is longer range rockets. US is still stalling on the HIMARS long range rockets but Ukraine might end up with some systems capable of out-ranging the Russians and taking out supplies and other targets well behind lines.