MINI LECTURE 14 A First Course on Fragility, Convexity, and Antifragility (Nontechnical).

A first, very introductory presentation of fragility as linked to both nonlinearity and dislike of variations. Antifragility is almost the opposite, limited to a specific range of variations.
Explains:
+ Why everything fragile must be concave.
+ The medical S curve.
+ Why harm to the climate is necessarily nonlinear in dose response.
+ How hospitals can be overcrowded unless there are redundancies.
Futher discussions will be more technical.

[@PhaBaria]

This is your best explanation so far for this phenomenon - for the non-technical audience, at least. Thanks.

[@kompjutr]

This could have an application in so many fields for those who have ears to hear. Splendid.

[@justinthring558]

Professor Taleb, friend, Thank you for this lecture, very helpful. Looking forward to lecture B. Kind regards.

[@aukehunneman6371]

This explanation is so good! The importance of these concepts can hardly be overstated. Thank you Nassim!

[@achams123]

Only thing better than Fridays are Fridays when Nassim posts a lesson.

[@mandalorets2607]

I can not stop watching your lectures, which makes me practice my english. Hey from Ukraine:) You are very cool

[@pradhyumnchoudhary7383]

such was the extent of misinterpretation about anti fragility that maestro had to come live himself!

[@FINANCIALFREEDOMCJ]

Wow. It’s awesome to see the mathematical side of Antifragility. I have been reading the Black Swan but have been binge watching the videos that it seems like I can’t find time to finish it. It’s crazy watching older videos and seeing these things play out. Great video!

[@Holdem17]

Fantastic presentation, simple and very thought-provoking. I particularly like the segment where you talk about dynamism on a ventilator, half the time at 80% and half the time at 120%. I just so happened to be reading the Effective Executive by Peter Drucker. He mentions in the book that top executives don't spend much time thinking about averages, because those don't tell you much. The effective executive has to understand the extremes.

[@kalicambria]

Thank you for making these Nassim. If possible, please record them in 1080 resolution in the future!

[@nicktambone]

Crystal clear as always. Thank you so much, Maestro!

[@jltsoyowdycjltsoyowdyc1076]

This is so evocative, really brilliant. Your students are a lucky bunch.

[@ColinDrane]

Chalkboards are antifragile. I get it now.

[@PatrikKron]

Thank you for this overview. I look forward to the more technical video on this.

[@_N0_0ne]

Thank you kindly ✍️

[@surajitgoswami1871]

This is exactly the problem in Diabetes: non-linearity in fragility! Doctors use fasting glucose and give the patient a clean bill of health because fasting glucose remains flat for 10-20 years and then curve sharply upwards when it is diagnosed as Type 2 diabetes. In medicine, one could look for a different indicator as well. For example, using fasting insulin (more difficult to measure than fasting glucose) could have told of the deteriorating health situation because fasting insulin goes up linearly as the cells are getting insulin resistant.

[@pedromacedo6202]

beautiful presentation

[@yungcoolie]

Thank you for making stats understanable

[@Focalisesoftware]

Love these. Thanks.

[@Esyr33]

Great lesson! Thank you!

[@lammah4070]

Very interesting .. Thank you!

[@Senecamarcus]

Thank you so much maestro

[@micuzzu]

Thanks for doing this Nassim

[@jamesmarsh4047]

Very good Nassim. This makes it very intuitive why you need a short in the body for making tail bets

[@golchha_J]

James, could you explain please?

[@jamesmarsh4047]

@@golchha_J short explanation. Fat tails mean high peaks. So lower action in the body. all the action comes in the tail so the body is overvalued.

[@golchha_J]

@@jamesmarsh4047 that was so clear - thank you!

[@todormarkov3]

Thank you for your work,

[@RichardKinch]

Haha, the KZbin auto captions detect the chalkboard eraser sounds as "[Music]", so Taleb is going to get a copyright strike for infringing somebody else's copyrighted chalkboard erasing performance.

[@Shadow1986]

Thankyou for the "For Dummies" lecture series.

[@laithb3091]

Very interesting and thank you

[@rusficdigital4990]

Maestro ❤️❤️❤️

[@TamerTSalameh]

Thank you so much!

[@jasdeepsinghgrover2470]

Thank you for your amazing work... Going by your amazing book on randomness... Won't something anti-fragile which makes small losses in low volatility risk getting eliminated in long streaks of low volatility?

[@DengueBurger]

good quality

[@golchha_J]

Hi Nassim, I wanted to ask *why* we have in-built convexity to some stressors? As to concavity to harm, it makes sense - we encounter the tails of the distribution less often? And thank you for posting this.

[@experimentsinAI]

Brilliant thanks

[@edwardlzx]

Too few comments for this great insight

[@ahmedabdelmageed3894]

God bless you

[@julianmaster]

thank you prof

[@salmantabatabai]

Thank you for sharing Prof Taleb. What I understood was that there is an extent in which non-linearity is advantageous. In your weight lifting example, it would be more beneficial to lift 100 pounds 10 times (average 100) than doing 9 days 0 and 1 day 1000 (again average 100). I think finding this extent is quite crucial for becoming antifragile. Am I correct?

[@miraclemaxicl]

🙂 -> 👍, ☹️ -> 👎 Alright, got it

[@dziugas6795]

I have never seen a person writing lettter x like that.

[@bobklapetzky4678]

It's an eXtremestan X, ; )

[@youngsdrums]

Awsome thx

[@dddd_-_]

Good shit Taleb 👍

[@derrickheng564]

Naive question here, for the example shown in time index 10:00, while the first order differential may appear be non linear, but would it be plausible that the second order differential be linear?

[@iArkyy]

Thanks Mr. Taleb! Im currently writing a master thiesis on goodwill accounting. Is it possible to say that the companies are fragile in regards to rising discount rates (as they are used to determine current carrying value)? Since its not allowed to increase the value of goodwill (using DCF) to record profits in the income statement. The function that is net profits should be concave to the discount rate used in calculating carrying value that could lead to potenital write downs.

[@thoms4384]

Can you talk about law of large numbers with theories living in the asymptote while they should be living the pre-asymptote ? Thanks

[@martag.6778]

Please, could you edit your videos for the option of subtitles in Brazilian Portuguese. I'm Brazilian from São Paulo and I have difficulty with the English language. I appreciate if you can fulfill my request . I'm your fan.

[@kennethmckeever842]

Sounds like some X are a “shock” when X is less than some normal range and when X is greater. The distributions don’t need to be symmetrical. It was initially confusing when I saw X

[@chandanthakur3935]

Brilliant... Can I get to apprentice on this under you? Please guide!

[@marceldavis430]

15:20 i have gotten from somewhere(poor memory) that we do a sigh ~every 5 minutes since our alveoli collapse every now and then and they need a little more force to inflate again. (See trying to inflate a balloon thats wet on the inside) Is the higher survival rate when doing 80/120 vs 100 associated to that or do we not currently know anything as to the reasons?

[@marceldavis430]

Oh never mind, just reading Antifragile atm and noticed you mention it aswell

[@IsaacWendt]

x Doesn't predict f(x) - (seems similar to charlie munger's inverse thinking) Everything fragile doesn't like volatility Everything f(x) is nonlinear. In order for something to break you need an accelerating function. avg of the function is worse than the function of the avg. convex = smile face. concave = sad face. Side note: I would pay alot to be taught how to think like Taleb. Imagine a teacher of this caliber Also would love to see a real-life example in options or mispricing in options. As a case study

[@CalebRox]

Thank you Nassim. You briefly mentioned Intermittent Fasting but I didn't understand the example. Any chance you could elaborate a bit?

[@dobrinstoilov]

I think his argument is that humans are not created for eating 3/4/5 (fixed N) meals a day, but rather to eat then there is food (so - variability). Thus, the recently made popular intermittent fasting, is found to have benefits - because it brings variability to eating. So, human body 'likes' variability in eating (in terms of how many per day) as it becomes 'stronger' (I think the research points to better immune system), hence the human body is antifragile to the n of eatings per day. *This is at least my interpretation, not a medical advice*

[@CalebRox]

@@dobrinstoilov I believe that we actually do prefer to eat at the same time each day, in fact you have probably experienced hunger at around the same time you are used to eating… so I don’t buy that aspect of IF.

[@karimb.]

Dear Nassim Taleb, thanks for this great video ! I would like to access the Volume 2 of your Technical Incerto but the dropbox link on your website is down. Where can I find the second version ? Thanks a lot.

[@nntalebproba]

Hi there, it's not ready yet.

[@mandalorets2607]

hey, dude, what's the volume 2 Technical Incerto? I know black swan and this volume 2 in Incerto. I'm a huge fan of Taleb, I'm very interested, thanks

[@karimb.]

@@mandalorets2607 Technical Incerto is a book about the technical mathematical details about his approach. You can find the book for free on the web.

[@mandalorets2607]

@@karimb. thanks, man

[@carnelyve866]

Is investing in the nasdaq antifragile?

[@luissafar7007]

2:30 I thought you were about to smash the glass into the blackboard to prove your point... haha

[@Christakiscy]

Excellent subject and presentation! p.s. fix that camera and video editing. Greetings from Nicosia, Cyprus.

[@booeylopa]

Dear professor taleb, could you talk about the stock market for once? Thanks

[@csabour9]

17:20 jenson inequality

[@carnelyve866]

If I understand correctly, selling naked puts is concave and not recommended. But thats the trading strategy that is advertised by superstar-brokers like Tom Sossnof... I am confused.

[@paulvalentine4157]

Professor Taleb, we are a mom-and-pop landlord family (

[@chrisb6296]

Sound is bad when you talk facing the board. Thanks for sharing

[@Kryoner1ex]

Asteroid milions years ago: fragile: dinosaurus, antifragile: human evolution?

[@victordelegrego3748]

Can anyone expand on why over redundancy in supply chains can lead to worse outcomes?

[@RichardKinch]

Redundancy to improve ordinary logistics will make the extraordinary logistic situations worse. That is, it increases concavity in the system. Improving the handling of normal situations performs disproportionately poorly when situations are not normal. That's concavity.

[@nntalebproba]

No, redundancy is necessary to avoid spikes.

[@victordelegrego3748]

@@nntalebproba I would apreciate if the Maestro could give me an initial clue about where to look for the answer.

[@RichardKinch]

@@nntalebproba Agreed, if by "redundancy" you mean "spare transport capacity that is usually idle". But then you can't supply seasonal fruit out of season just by adding redundant capacity. So it depends on what you mean by "spikes".

[@AntonioRillera]

If you fall 1 x 100 ft = dead If you fall 100 x 1 ft = not dead

[@omeryilmaz9955]

Why is C_100(80)=0 and not -20?

[@nntalebproba]

The option is worth 0 when out of the money.

[@Zach-xs8lu]

Can you short that video for a 10s Instagram reel? Just kidding.. :)

[@Nightdragon199]

Great video, just wish it wasn't recorded on a potato

[@m.h.3293]

Physiolgists don't like this video. They cannot earn money in the case of antifragility.